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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Pirates.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Between Iwamura and their free agent signings, the Pirates added about $13MM in guaranteed money this winter.  They also non-tendered Capps, who earned $2.425MM last year.

In Dotel, the Pirates may well get a performance similar to that of Capps.  And the club option on Dotel gives the Pirates a possible second year at a defined price rather than a potential arbitration disagreement with Capps for 2011.  That said, GM Neal Huntington has to be questioned for getting nothing at all for Capps.  Huntington blamed his front office's leak of a potential non-tender for the disappearance of Capps' trade value, but the reliever could've been dealt during the '09 season, during Spring Training 2010, or during the '10 season.

They aren't big names, but I like the Pirates' free agent signings.  The relievers could have midseason trade value, and getting Carrasco on a minor league deal was a win.  Church and Crosby will challenge the incumbents and even offer a little bit of upside for $2.5MM.

Surrendering five years of Chavez for one of Iwamura, and paying Iwamura $4.85MM, diverges from Huntington's plan.  Reading Huntington's comments to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the GM seems to be going for respectability with this move.  Why not keep Chavez and sign Kelly Johnson at half the price, while also potentially retaining Johnson for 2011?  Maybe Iwamura puts the Pirates on the radar of other Japanese players, but this move raises an eyebrow.

Despite concerns about Capps and Iwamura, I liked the Pirates' offseason.  The Orioles and Nationals, in a similar rebuilding-for-2010 position, threw down $30MM each.  The Pirates spent only $13MM, and most likely will be open to trading any of their new acquisitions if it improves the club in the long-term.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

  • Randy Wolf, SP: three years, $29.75MM.  Includes $10MM club option for 2013 with a $1.5MM buyout.
  • Trevor Hoffman, RP: one year, $8MM.  Includes $7MM+ mutual option for 2011 with a $500K buyout.
  • LaTroy Hawkins, RP: two years, $7.5MM. 
  • Doug Davis, SP: one year, $5.25MM.  Includes $6.5MM mutual option for 2011 with a $1MM buyout.
  • Gregg Zaun, C: one year, $2.15MM.  Includes $2.25MM club option for 2011 with a $250K buyout.
  • Craig Counsell, IF: one year, $2.1MM.
  • Claudio Vargas, RP: one year, $900K.
  • Total spend: $55.65MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Brewers GM Doug Melvin was active in free agency this offseason, adding seven players for over $55MM.  The focus was understandably on pitching, as the Brewers finished 15th in the NL with a 4.83 ERA in 2009.  $35MM was committed to the rotation for lefties Wolf and Davis, with a hefty $15.5MM going to the back end of the bullpen.

The Brewers' finances were limited in part by a pair of free agent pitching mistakes Melvin made previously, Jeff Suppan and David Riske.  Melvin was again aggressive in giving an extra year each to Wolf and Hawkins.  The latest additions at least come with better peripheral stats.  Bullpen-wise, the 37-year-old Hawkins and 42-year-old Hoffman received top of the market money.  Risky expenditures, but at least the Brewers weren't alone in making sizeable free agent reliever commitments.

The problem with the rotation upgrades is that the Brewers' rotation is still ugly after Yovani Gallardo and Wolf.  Playing around with CHONE's innings projections for the team's expected six starters (and limiting Suppan's impact) gives me a projected rotation ERA of 4.46.  That would've ranked ninth in the NL last year.

Given his desire to spend his available funds on pitching, Melvin swapped Hardy for Gomez and allowed Cameron to leave.  The Brewers had the best available shortstop in Hardy, but four years of Gomez is a solid return.  Even in 2010, Gomez might be Cameron's equal.

Can the 2010 Brewers bash their way to a division title?  They've got monsters in Braun and Fielder, but the keys might be a healthy season from Weeks and minimal regression from McGehee.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Astros.

Major League Signings

  • Brandon Lyon, RP: three years, $15MM.
  • Brett Myers, SP: one year, $5.1MM.  Includes $8MM mutual option for 2011 with a $2MM buyout.
  • Pedro Feliz, 3B: one year, $4.5MM.
  • Brian Moehler, P: one year, $3MM.  Mutual option exercised.
  • Geoff Blum, IF: one year, $1.5MM.  Includes $1.65MM mutual option for 2011.
  • Jason Michaels, OF: one year, $800K.
  • Total spend: $29.9MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Early in the offseason, it was suggested by some reporters that the Astros had the payroll flexibility to make only minor moves.  As Jeff Euston wrote for Baseball Prospectus in February, the team did ultimately trim roughly $15MM from their year-end payroll.  GM Ed Wade still is able to pay his offseason acquisitions about $20MM in 2010, since the '09 payroll featured larger commitments to veterans such as Tejada, Valverde, Hawkins, Brocail, Hampton, Erstad, and Backe.

I wrote in October that the Astros could contend in 2010 with the right additions.  Starting with the bullpen, Wade replaced Valverde and Hawkins with Lyon and Lindstrom.  The Astros might not lose much in performance here, and they will pay the new pair $4.125MM less in 2010 than the old tandem will earn.  Plus, the Astros snagged the #19 pick in the draft from the Tigers.  The downside to this bullpen swap: Lyon's contract is quite excessive, the pair comes with increased health risks, and Jimenez might've been useful.

Myers is a wild card as the new #3 starter; the Astros are looking for him to return to his 2006 level of performance (3.91 ERA in 198 innings).  My beef is with the Astros bringing back Moehler at $3MM.  There was no reason to overcommit to him in October.

There was early talk that the Astros would go with rookies Tommy Manzella and Chris Johnson on the left side of their infield in 2010.  Instead Feliz will handle the hot corner as the Astros take a defense-first approach toward the two positions.

For the Astros to contend in 2010, they'll need a huge performance from their rotation.  Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Myers, Bud Norris, and Felipe Paulino are all capable of big things.  They won't get much run support – the lineup is littered with easy outs and is the worst of the eight NL clubs I've projected so far (using CHONE and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool).

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Reds.

Major League Signings

  • Aroldis Chapman, SP: six years, $30.25MM.
  • Orlando Cabrera, SS: one year, $3.02MM.  Includes $4MM mutual option for 2011 with a $1MM buyout if club declines, $500K buyout if player declines.
  • Ramon Hernandez, C: one year, $3MM.  Includes $3.25MM vesting option for 2011.
  • Jonny Gomes, OF: one year, $800K.  Includes $1.75MM club option for 2011 with up to $200K buyout.
  • Total spend: $37.07MM.  Spend on non-Chapman free agents: $6.82MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Scott Rolen, 3B: two years, $13MM.  Converted $11MM 2010 salary to $6MM salary and $5MM signing bonus paid over three years with no interest.
  • Nick Masset, RP: two years, $2.58MM.

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Reds' surprising signing of flamethrowing Cuban defector Chapman was a long-term move.  Though Chapman could have some big league impact in 2010, I don't think that was the main intent.  Regardless, this was a praiseworthy investment.

Reds GM Walt Jocketty apparently had little cash to work with on short-term improvements, as he spent less than $7MM on other free agents.  Credit Jocketty for non-tendering and then waiting out Gomes.  As for the $6.02MM spent on Cabrera and Hernandez, I'm not sure those players are clear upgrades over Paul Janish and Ryan Hanigan.  Still, there is something to be said for a veteran track record.  Aside from Gomes, Jocketty also made a smart minor move in getting Arredondo on a minor league deal.  Arredondo, 26 later this month, will miss the 2010 season recovering from Tommy John surgery but can help the Reds in future years.

Where did Jocketty find the $6.82MM for his three veteran free agent signings?  Most of the money came from redistributing Rolen's 2010 salary and giving him a two-year extension.  It was a risky gambit, as Rolen turns 35 soon and hasn't played 130 games in a season since '06.  Jocketty also saved $1.3MM by swapping Taveras for Miles, at the cost of Rosales.  Dumping Taveras was addition by subtraction, since he ate up 437 plate appearances with a .285 OBP in last year (mostly in the first two spots in the batting order).

The 2010 Reds are the darling sleeper pick in some circles.  They'll need to succeed on the strength of their run prevention.  Their defense looks strong, but Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, and Homer Bailey will need to beat their 4.50 ERA CHONE projections.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Cubs.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Cubs were handicapped this offseason by their need to unload outfielder Milton Bradley, a deal that went down on December 18th.  The Cubs had little leverage with Bradley, as it was well-known they were dead-set on trading him.  GM Jim Hendry had to take back a terrible pitcher on one of baseball's worst contracts, but he managed to save $5MM in acquiring Silva and cash from the Mariners.  The whole mess reflects poorly on the Cubs, with Hendry making this dubious claim about Bradley: "No one could have really predicted how it turned out."  The toxic clubhouse situation with Bradley forced the Cubs to subtract a .378 OBP in exchange for a two-year, $16MM commitment to Silva.

The Cubs then took the often-regrettable route of signing the best available free agent to fit their need, choosing Byrd out of a weak free agent center field market.  Will the Cubs be happy paying a 34-year-old Byrd $6.5MM in 2012?  They have to hope this is another Mark DeRosa signing: a contract that looked high at the time but paid off because DeRosa kept getting better.

The Grabow signing was painful.  If that's the going rate for a southpaw reliever with control problems, find another solution.  On the other hand I liked the Nady pickup.  He should be one of the game's better reserves, and will be used heavily.

The success of the Cubs' rotation may hinge on Ted Lilly's health and Randy Wells' sophomore campaign.  A midseason acquisition may be necessary.  Same goes for the bullpen, where the big additions were Grabow and Gray.  Angel Guzman's shoulder injury is a major blow, though not an unpredictable one given his injury history.

The Cubs enter their first season under new ownership with an array of bloated contracts and question marks, plus key players unsigned beyond 2010.  This might be Hendry's last chance to get it right.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Nationals.

Major League Signings

  • Jason Marquis, SP: two years, $15MM.
  • Ivan Rodriguez, C: two years, $6MM.
  • Matt Capps, RP: one year, $3.5MM.  Arbitration-eligible after season.
  • Chien-Ming Wang, SP: one year, $2MM.  Arbitration-eligible after season.
  • Adam Kennedy, 2B: one year, $1.75MM.  Includes $2MM club option for 2011 with a $500K buyout.
  • Scott Olsen, SP: one year, $1MM.  Arbitration-eligible after season.
  • Tyler Walker, RP: one year, $650K.  Arbitration-eligible after season.
  • Total spend: $29.9MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

I have similar feelings toward the Nationals' offseason as I did with the Orioles.  I understand $20-30MM spent on short-term free agent acquisitions won't set the franchises back in the rebuilding process much.  But if the goal is mainly veteran respectability, couldn't it have been done at half the price?

In particular I am not a fan of the $21MM the Nationals committed to Marquis and Pudge over the next two years.  They're mediocre players who don't figure to bring much back in trades or draft picks.  The Nats could've gotten similar mentoring from, say, Doug Davis and Yorvit Torrealba for one year and $6.5MM total.  Or even John Lannan and Jamie Burke.

On the other hand, the signings of Capps, Wang, and Kennedy are sensible.  The guarantees were minimal, and these players are more likely to have trade value.  Plus, the arbitration-eligibility of Capps and Wang for 2011 essentially serves as a club option.  One complaint with the signing of Walker: it led to the loss of Estrada.  Estrada may never pan out in the bigs, but why swap your #18 prospect for a year or two of Walker?

If we eliminated the top two from the Major League Signings ledger, I'd say GM Mike Rizzo had a solid offseason.  However, I'm not sure what the plan is here: the Nationals have Keith Law's #23-ranked farm system and should probably launch a full-blown rebuild, but they're adding relatively pricey free agents.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Phillies.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Roy Halladay, SP: three years, $60MM.  Includes $20MM vesting option for 2014.
  • Joe Blanton, SP: three years, $24MM.
  • Shane Victorino, CF: three years, $22MM.
  • Carlos Ruiz, C: three years, $8.85MM.  Includes $5MM club option for 2013 with a $500K buyout.

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. had a baffling offseason.  He pulled off a huge deal for one of the game's best pitchers and signed him to a below-market extension, only to turn around and trade another ace to replenish the farm system.  Amaro gave out three other reasonable extensions to his own players, but overpaid for the majority of his free agent signings. 

The Polanco signing is a candidate for the worst of the offseason.  The Tigers were unwilling to offer arbitration to their Type A free agent second baseman, presumably because they felt the risk of a one-year deal in the $6-7MM range outweighed the prospect of two draft picks.  The three-year, $18MM commitment the Phillies gave Polanco in early December was the polar opposite of the one year, $1MM deal the Cardinals gave Felipe Lopez two months later. 

Amaro is aggressive in pursuing free agents he likes.  The approach made sense with his three-year, $24MM offer to Adrian Beltre, but there was no indication Polanco drew similar strong interest from other clubs.  Amaro also handed out two-year pacts to three marginal players who deserved one-year deals in Baez, Schneider, and Gload.

The Halladay trade was a huge win for the Phillies, especially when Doc signed for far less than his market value.  They gave up a couple of Top 100 prospects, but that's what win-now teams should do.  They also received $6MM, enough to go over slot on a big name or two in the June draft and help make up for the farm system hit.

On the same day as the Halladay deal, Amaro took off his "win-now" hat and decided to think about 2011 and beyond.  Lee was shipped to Seattle, costing the Phillies several wins in 2010 no matter how the prospects pan out.  Lee is hardly expensive at $9MM, and there is no indication Amaro shopped him around to get the best deal. 

The extensions to Blanton, Victorino, and Ruiz seem reasonable enough; Amaro netted cost savings and certainty over the next three years.  Extensions have become the Phillies Way in recent years, with few missteps.

Despite my complaints about their offseason, the Phillies are 2010 contenders.  They've got two aces even without Lee and an offense that should be among the NL's best.

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Mets.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Mets came into the offseason with needs at left field, first base, catcher, the rotation, and the bullpen.  GM Omar Minaya's approach: one big move and tons of little ones.

Bay was the major expenditure; his option has a decent shot of vesting and turning this into a five-year, $80MM deal.  The Mets also surrendered the #57 overall draft pick.  Should the Mets be praised for giving Bay three fewer years than Matt Holliday, at about $643K less per year?  Or did both teams overcommit, given an apparent lack of comparable offers?  Perhaps in both cases, the Mets and Cardinals feared that their targeted sluggers would could sign short-term deals elsewhere and they'd be left with nothing.

Though I initially liked the Escobar signing, it's already looking like a waste of $1.25MM.  In hindsight, he deserved a minor league deal.  I still like Minaya's approach to the bullpen with the low-risk signings of Igarashi, Calero, and others.

Minaya committed $1.9MM to catchers Barajas, Blanco, and Coste, which at least looks good compared to the $6MM deals given to Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall.  The Mets are probably lucky that Bengie Molina didn't take their one-year, $5.5MM proposal, but they deserve faint praise for not offering a second year.

It looks like Daniel Murphy (.274/.328/.429 projection) has the inside track on the Mets' first base job, with Jacobs in camp as a backup plan.  Minaya never seemed too keen on tossing $2MM at flawed but more interesting bats like Troy Glaus and Russell Branyan, nor did he make a play in the $6MM range for Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche.

With all the uncertainty in the Mets' rotation, I expected them to sign two starters to big league deals.  Instead, they added a couple of fifth starter candidates on minor league pacts in Takahashi and Fogg.  I don't blame the Mets for not topping Oakland's $10MM offer to Ben Sheets, but they could've been more aggressive on Joel Pineiro or Jon Garland.  The Mets have a probable rotation of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Jon Niese – and I have no idea how they'll perform or how many innings they'll provide.

The Mets are comparable to their division rival Marlins, aside from the $80MM payroll difference.  The teams project to have similar offenses, granting full health for both clubs (though I downgraded Carlos Beltran's projection slightly for the month-plus of Angel Pagan we'll see).  Both clubs also have unpredictable rotations.  I won't rule out the Marlins and Mets as contenders, but the Braves and Phillies have fewer question marks.

Offseason In Review: Florida Marlins

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Marlins.

Major League Signings: None

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

This was a typical Marlins offseason on the surface – no money spent on free agency, no arbitration offers to departing free agents, and a couple of salary dump trades.  Still, the work of president Larry Beinfest and GM Michael Hill warrants a closer look.

The Marlins are known for pulling relievers off the scrap heap and getting good performances.  Calero, Donnelly, and Brian Sanches were last year's minor league deal success stories.  Chances are the Fish will squeeze the best out of MacDougal, McClung, Turnbow, and Veras, and they risked nothing.  Lindstrom didn't have much trade value, as the best player the Marlins received was Jimenez (the eighth pick in the Rule 5 draft).  Lindstrom is only costing the Astros $1.625MM this year, and you have to wonder if the Marlins sold low.  In hindsight, the Marlins were right not to offer arbitration to Calero, who could only find a minor league deal and would have done better accepting arb coming off a 1.95 ERA.

Don't blame the Marlins for trading Hermida; he would've been a non-tender candidate for most teams.  The Marlins are in good shape with a Chris Coghlan–Cameron Maybin–Cody Ross outfield.  Credit Beinfest and Hill for hanging on to Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, as trading either probably would've hurt the team's chances in 2010.  There is some debate as to whether Type B free agent Nick Johnson deserved an arbitration offer, but that might've saddled the Marlins with a contract bigger than the $5.75MM deal he signed with the Yankees.  I'll reserve judgment on the Marlins' choice not to bring in a different veteran first baseman, as Gaby Sanchez comes with a passable .270/.356/.430 projection.

The Marlins had no problem investing in young talent, as they locked up Josh Johnson for four years and showed a willingness to offer $20MM to Aroldis Chapman.  It'd be overly simplistic to link either pursuit to the January 12th joint statement about the Marlins' use of their revenue sharing funds; the Johnson signing and Chapman offer were already well in the works.

Let's not get too crazy with our Marlins praise, though.  Have they "consistently made every effort to put the best product on the field," as president David Samson said in the statement?  The Marlins could point to their highest payroll in five years, a figure that will continue to rise.  But a legitimate competing team would've at least added a starting pitcher or two, as the Marlins are all question marks after Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.  I won't count out a management team that coaxed 87 wins out of $37MM last year, but on paper the Marlins don't appear to be contenders.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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We've finished all the AL clubs in our Offseason In Review series.  The Braves kick off the NL today.

Major League Signings

  • Tim Hudson, SP: three years, $28MM.  Includes $9MM club option for 2013 with a $1MM buyout
  • Billy Wagner, RP: one year, $7MM.  Includes $6.5MM club option with a $250K buyout. Vests with 50 games finished
  • Takashi Saito, RP: one year, $3.2MM.
  • Troy Glaus, 1B: one year, $1.75MM.
  • Eric Hinske, 1B/3B/OF: one year, $1MM.
  • Juan Abreu, P: one year, $400K (estimated).
  • Total spend: $41.35MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Braves entered the offseason with several significant free agents: Hudson, LaRoche, Soriano, and Gonzalez.  GM Frank Wren led off by signing Hudson at a fair price.  He then guaranteed $10.2MM to Wagner and Saito, $9MM less than Gonzalez and Soriano ultimately required.  Much is riding on the elbows of the 38-year-old Wagner and 40-year-old Saito, yet the new back end of the Braves bullpen doesn't seem riskier than Gonzalez and Soriano.  This was a gamble worth taking, and the Braves also came away with Chavez and the #35 and #53 picks in the 2010 draft (while losing #20 to Boston).

The pitching additions left little in the budget for other moves.  Wren opted for risk/affordability at first base.  Johnson was let go for nothing, though Prado may match him at the league minimum.  The Hudson signing, in the view of the Braves, necessitated the trade of Derek Lowe or Vazquez.  The Braves were willing to eat $9MM of the $45MM owed to Lowe, but found no takers.  Instead, Vazquez was traded in a cost-cutting move that makes hurts the Braves' rotation in 2010.

Leaving Logan out of the equation, the Vazquez trade saved the Braves $8.9MM.  When was the last time you saw a legitimate pitching surplus?  Odds are that Vazquez will be significantly better than the Braves' worst starter in 2010.  If the Braves fall two or three wins short in the NL East, we have to point to this cost-cutting move.  To be fair, the Braves' front five still looks excellent. 

Their lineup carries plenty of risk with Glaus and Chipper Jones.  But if healthy this has to be one of the NL's best offenses – Matt Diaz carries their worst projected OBP at .349.  Cabrera doesn't seem like the outfield addition the Braves needed, but can you name an affordable free agent who'd match his .296/.367/.441 projection with acceptable defense?

You could make the argument that every team would be better with an extra $11.5MM spent, and the Braves just didn't have the budget to keep Vazquez.  This one stings, though, since it wasn't a win-now trade.  The deal, and the Braves' offseason, will look better if Cabrera has a big year.  He's part of a strong-looking club that should contend all season.

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