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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Kelly Shoppach, C: two years, $5.55MM.  Includes $3.2MM club option for '12 with a $300K buyout.

Notable Losses

The Rays did very little in free agency, taking flyers on guys like Johnson and Benoit.  Instead, executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman upgraded his catcher and closer situations by importing Shoppach and Soriano via trade.  Shoppach will be paired with Dioner Navarro behind the plate, who the Rays were able to retain without giving a raise.  The Soriano acquisition was surprising, as he'll be paid $7.25MM in 2010.

As is, the Rays have a lineup that could reasonably top 800 runs again.  Right field and DH remain two potential areas to upgrade.  Top prospect Desmond Jennings could provide a midseason outfield boost, while Friedman has made efforts this winter to improve upon Burrell.  The Rays could still bench Burrell and sign Russell Branyan or Jermaine Dye, a change that could add a crucial win or two.

Despite trading Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, and Scott Kazmir in the last year or so, the Rays maintain excellent rotation depth.  Projection systems probably sell their #3-5 starters short, as Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Wade Davis have the stuff to beat CHONE's 4.60ish ERA predictions.

With payroll headed back down in 2011, this is an important year for the Rays to strike.  They've got the talent to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, and will hopefully stretch even further if midseason additions can help them eke out a few extra wins.

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Yankees.

Major League Signings

  • Andy Pettitte, SP: one year, $11.75MM
  • Nick Johnson, DH: one year, $5.75MM.  Includes $5.5MM mutual option for '11 with a $250K buyout.
  • Randy Winn, OF: one year, $1.1MM.
  • Total spend: $18.6MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Yankees limited their free agent spending this offseason, making only two major moves in Pettitte and Johnson.  They kept both to one-year commitments.  GM Brian Cashman was an active trader in adding Granderson and Vazquez, and he didn't surrender a ton or take on ridiculous contracts.  Cashman's fine offseason was not about payroll clout this time.

CHONE projections have the new Yankee lineup scoring over 5.8 runs per game.  Even if that's optimistic, it still looks like the best offense in the league.  The addition of Vazquez plus Phil Hughes possibly replacing Joba Chamberlain is likely to push the Yankees' rotation ERA below 2009's 4.48 mark.  Cashman should be applauded for affordably improving upon a World Series champion, at least on paper.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Red Sox.

Major League Signings

  • John Lackey, SP: five years, $82.5MM.  Also gave #29 pick to Angels.
  • Mike Cameron, CF: two years, $15.5MM.
  • Marco Scutaro, SS: two years, $12.5MM.  Includes $6MM club option/$3MM player option for '12 with a $1.5MM buyout.  Also gave #78 pick to Blue Jays.
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: one year, $10MM.  Includes $5MM player option for '11 that can become $10MM with 640 PAs.
  • Victor Martinez, C: one year, $7.7MM.  Exercised club option.
  • Tim Wakefield, P: two years, $5MM.
  • Jason Varitek, C: one year, $3MM.  Exercised player option.
  • Scott Atchison, RP: one year, $430K.  Club options at near league minimum for '11 and '12.
  • Fabio Castro, P: one year, $400K (estimate).
  • Total spend: $137.03MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Red Sox did most of their tinkering in free agency, bringing in an ace starter, a center fielder, and a new left side of the infield.  The defensive improvements could add eight or nine wins, theorizes John Dewan.  Last year I liked the additions of Brad Penny and John Smoltz, but the pair contributed a 6.24 ERA in 171.6 innings for more than $10MM.  This time around Lackey projects at a 3.97 ERA, while #4-5 starters Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka project in the low 4.00s.

Worried about the offense?  Don't be, as CHONE projects the Sox will very nearly match last year's 5.38 runs per game.  That's optimistic, since the starting nine won't play every single game, but it still looks like a deep crew.  The revamped Red Sox remain one of the best teams in the AL.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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Leading off our Offseason In Review series, the Orioles.

Major League Signings

  • Mike Gonzalez, RP: two years, $12MM.  Also gave #52 overall pick to Braves.
  • Miguel Tejada, 3B: one year, $6MM.
  • Garrett Atkins,1B: one year, $4.5MM.  Includes $8.5MM club option for '11 with a $500K buyout.
  • Mark Hendrickson, RP: one year, $1.4MM.  Includes $1.2MM club option for '11 with a $200K buyout.
  • Total spend: $23.9MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Orioles added about $33MM worth of veterans this winter while finishing a couple of ugly contracts in Mora and Baez.  The pickups make the Orioles better in 2010, but to what end?  Fourth place in the AL East?  Perhaps the O's will eventually spin some of these guys into prospects, though a future Gonzalez trade is partially countered by the draft pick they already lost.  Whether you liked the Orioles' offseason depends on your philosophy on this question: should a rebuilding club spend significant money for the sake of respectability?

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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Time to close out the Offseason In Review serieswith a look at the Phillies.  Here's what we wrote about them on November 6th.

Additions: Raul Ibanez, Chan Ho Park, Jack Taschner, Miguel Cairo, Scott Eyre (re-signed), Jamie Moyer (re-signed), John Mayberry, Rodrigo Lopez, Gustavo Chacin, Pablo Ozuna, Gary Majewski, Dave Borkowski.  Midseason: Joe Blanton

Subtractions: Pat Burrell, Geoff Jenkins, Adam Eaton, So Taguchi, Rudy Seanez, Tom Gordon

Extensions: Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Ryan Madson, Greg Dobbs

I wrote in November that the Phillies "didn't win the World Series on a bunch of career years, so keeping this group intact is a reasonable strategy."  That's pretty much what new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. did, locking up current players, jettisoning dead weight, and replacing Burrell with Ibanez.  Let's take a closer look.

Last year the Phillies were third in the NL with 4.93 runs per game, though their .332 OBP ranked seventh.  As a left-handed hitter and poor fielder, Ibanez seemed a questionable fit for the Phillies.  They jumped on him in mid-December for full market price – $31.5MM.  Burrell would later sign with the Rays for half the dollars.  On the other hand, Ibanez is a solid bat and the Phillies project to score 4.98 runs per game according to CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool.  Howard's OBP should bounce back, and Jenkins won't be eating up 322 plate appearances.

The Phillies' 2008 rotation ranked seventh in the NL with a 4.23 ERA in 966.2 innings.  This time they'll have Blanton all year plus Chan Ho Park and possibly J.A. Happ filling the fifth starter role.  Carlos Carrasco gives the Phillies additional depth.  The front three of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Moyer returns, with concerns already surfacing about Hamels' elbow.  Obviously the Phils need another big year from Hamels, but otherwise I think they can weather regression from Moyer just by not trotting out Kyle Kendrick and Eaton for 49 starts again.

The vaunted Phillies bullpen posted a 3.22 ERA in 483 innings last year.  The main change for '09: Eyre, Happ, and Taschner will soak up lefty innings in the first third of the year while J.C. Romero serves his suspension.  Just with typical regression the '09 pen projects around 3.93, according to CHONE.

The Phillies had the best defense in baseball last year, according to The Fielding Bible II.  The main differences in '09 – more Werth, no Jenkins, and the Burrell-Ibanez swap – shouldn't change much.  The Phillies still have an awesome defensive infield and the fine work of Victorino in center.

In trying to match or exceed their 92 wins from last year, the Phillies deal with rotation uncertainty and regression in the bullpen.  I have them around 90-91 wins, assuming 200+ innings from Hamels.  You may recall I had the Braves at 90 and the Mets around 86.  It should be a fierce battle for the NL East, and the Marlins can't be counted out.

Bottom line: The World Series champs didn't change much in the offseason.  On paper the Phillies still look like the best team in the NL East, albeit with a very small margin for error.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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Next up in the Offseason In Review series, the Rays.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 30th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Pat Burrell, Lance Cormier, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Nelson, Brian Shouse, Matt Joyce, Gabe Kapler, Aneury Rodriguez, Adam Kennedy

Subtractions: Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Jonny Gomes, Cliff Floyd, Trever Miller, Eric Hinske, Rocco Baldelli, Al Reyes

The Rays rose up last year to win the AL pennant.  The offseason went according to plan – sign a righthanded slugger, tweak the bullpen, and get value for excess starting pitchers.  Let's take a closer look.

Last year the Rays ranked 9th in the AL with 4.78 runs scored per game.  This year's lineup subtracts Hinske and adds Kapler, while also slotting Burrell into the middle of the order.  Burrell's two-year, $16MM deal was widely applauded when he signed on January 5th.  The new lineup projects to score 5.23 runs per game, according to CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool. That seems optimistic, but the Rays should score more runs this year.

The Rays' '08 rotation ranked 2nd in the AL last year with a 3.95 ERA in 973.3 innings.  The '09 rotation subtracts Jackson in favor of a probable Jeff Niemann/David Price fifth starter combo.  It should be stellar once again, projecting at 3.98 or so.  And unlike most teams, the Rays have the depth to cover injuries.  Highly regarded prospect Wade Davis awaits his turn.

Andrew Friedman did not rest on his laurels in regard to the bullpen, which was good for a 3.55 ERA in 484.3 innings last year.  He traded Hammel to the Rockies and let Miller go while importing Nelson, Shouse, Cormier, and Isringhausen.  They may not be able to match last year's ERA, but still project well at 3.72.

According to The Fielding Bible II, the Rays' defense ranked 4th in the AL last year.  There's no reason to expect any less in 2009.

Can the Rays win 97 games again?  The projections suggest they can, though as I said 847 runs scored seems optimistic.  Still, if the Rays are behind the Yankees and Red Sox, it's not by much.  It's a shame that one of these three teams won't make the playoffs.

Bottom line: Friedman stretched a limited budget to bring in Burrell, and made other bargain signings as well.  He moved surplus pitching for value and still has plenty to spare.  The Rays look very strong once again.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Dodgers.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 22nd. Changes for 2009:

Additions:  Manny Ramirez (re-signed), Rafael Furcal (re-signed), Casey Blake (re-signed), Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf, Guillermo Mota, Will Ohman, Claudio Vargas, Brad Ausmus, Mark Loretta, Doug Mientkiewicz, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, Charlie Haeger, Ronald Belisario, Tanyon Sturtze (re-signed), Shawn Estes, Juan Castro

Subtractions:  Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chan Ho Park, Joe Beimel, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Sweeney, Andruw Jones, Scott Proctor, Takashi Saito, Angel Berroa, Jason Johnson

As expected, it was an eventful offseason for the Dodgers.  All the shuffling actually led to an $18MM reduction in Opening Day payroll.

Last year the Dodgers ranked 13th in the NL with 4.32 runs scored per game.  The '09 lineup will not feature Kent, Jones, Berroa, or Garciaparra.  It will hopefully have full seasons of Ramirez, Furcal, Blake, and Hudson.  The revamped lineup projects to score a healthy 4.98 runs per game, according to CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool.  Such production would've ranked 2nd in the NL last year.  GM Ned Colletti gave his offense a huge boost at a total commitment of less than $100MM for the four free agents.

The 2008 rotation ranked 3rd in the NL with a 3.87 ERA in 927.6 innings.  Colletti downgraded by replacing Lowe with Wolf, but he also committed $5MM instead of $60MM.  Clayton Kershaw and James McDonald will pick up the innings Penny, Maddux, Eric Stults, and Park consumed last year.  Using CHONE and my own innings approximations I have the '09 rotation posting a 4.16 ERA – still pretty good.  I don't think they need to worry about adding Pedro Martinez right now.  Maybe Colletti can go after a bigger fish at midseason if someone gets hurt.

The Dodgers had a sterling pen last year, with a 3.34 ERA in 519.6 innings.  The pen has a different look this year, with Mota and Ohman coming in and Park, Beimel, Saito, and Proctor gone.  The new bullpen projects at a 3.96 ERA.

Defensively the Dodgers ranked 10th in the NL last year according to The Fielding Bible II.  Despite more Manny I think they've improved overall given the keystone combo of Hudson and Furcal.

I see the Dodgers currently as a 91-92 win team, which should be enough to hold off the Diamondbacks and perhaps Giants.

Bottom line: Colletti dove headfirst into free agency and, for once, emerged a victor.  The Dodgers' new offense should be among the best in the league, and they'll reach the playoffs with decent pitching.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Red Sox.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 20th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Ramon Ramirez,Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli, Junichi Tazawa, Tim Wakefield (exercised option), Jason Varitek (re-signed), Mark Kotsay (re-signed), Brad Wilkerson, Randor Bierd, Nick Green, Billy Traber.  Midseason: Jason Bay

Subtractions: Coco Crisp, David Aardsma, Mike Timlin, Paul Byrd, Sean Casey, David Pauley, Kevin Cash, Bartolo Colon, David Ross, Alex Cora.  Midseason: Manny Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen

Extensions: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester

Despite taking a very different approach from the Yankees, the Red Sox also had a positive offseason.  They extended three talented young players and maintained financial flexibility by signing free agents to low base salary contracts. 

Last year the Red Sox ranked 2nd in the AL with 5.22 runs scored per game.  Changes in the '09 lineup include the subtraction of Manny, Crisp, and possibly Lugo, as well as more time for Bay and Lowrie.  CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool predict the best offense in the league: 5.62 runs per game.  Theoretically the Baldelli addition can limit the damage if Drew is to miss time. 

Boston's '08 rotation ranked 3rd in the AL with a 4.02 ERA in 966.6 innings.  The '09 rotation is similar but deeper with the additions of Penny and Smoltz and the possible emergence of Clay Buchholz.  Michael Bowden, a quality young pitcher, seems buried on the depth chart.  I tweaked CHONE's innings projections and ended up with a 4.13 ERA for this year's group.  That seems pessimistic but we'll go with it.

Last year's bullpen posted a 4.00 ERA in 479.6 innings (I know these bullpen ERAs aren't great indicators but let's not overcomplicate things).  The subtractions of Timlin, Aardsma, and Hansen help.  Add in more innings from Masterson as well as imports Ramirez and Saito, and this 'pen projects at a 3.43 ERA.  Even if they're not that good I can still see a few extra wins this year.

Defensively the Red Sox ranked 5th in the AL according to The Fielding Bible II.  I don't think they'll suffer for the losses of Crisp and Manny.

Like the Yankees, the Red Sox project on paper to win 100+ games.  Of course, for both teams some players will get hurt and have unexpected seasons.  Plus, the quality of competition in the division should bring down those win totals.

Bottom line: The Red Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, but he was a luxury for them anyway.  I liked Boston's low-risk offseason approach, and it's scary to think that they could make major summer trade acquisitions.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Cubs.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 17th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Milton Bradley, Ryan Dempster (re-signed), Kevin Gregg, Aaron Miles, Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino, David Patton, Jeff Stevens, Joey Gathright.  Midseason: Rich Harden

Subtractions: Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa, Jason Marquis, Bob Howry, Chad Gaudin, Mike Wuertz, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Henry Blanco, Jim Edmonds, Jon Lieber, Ronny Cedeno, Daryle Ward, Casey McGehee.  Midseason: Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher, Scott Eyre

The Cubs made headlines by increasing their Opening Day payroll more than any other team, by $16.5MM.  This was a necessity due to the team's backloaded contracts, though – incumbents Kosuke Fukudome, Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Aramis Ramirez combined for a $17.9MM salary increase.  To improve the team, it was still necessary to trim payroll.  This resulted in the decisions to subtract Blanco and Marquis (good) as well as Wood and DeRosa (questionable).

The Cubs led the NL last year with 5.31 runs scored per game.  The new lineup was designed with more lefty-righty balance in mind.  Using CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool, it projects at 5.29 runs per game.  That projection will slip a bit if Bradley misses time.  Bradley was a very risky signing, and he didn't take a discount to come to Chicago.  He'll be worth it if the Cubs can somehow coax 130 games a year out of him; his history suggests they can't.  The Cubs shouldn't be any worse for having Fontenot in the lineup over DeRosa, but the club didn't maximize its '09 return when they sent the veteran to Cleveland.

Last year's rotation was also the best in the league, posting a 3.75 ERA in 955 innings.  They've subtracted 166.6 innings of 4.43 ball from Marquis and 54.6 innings of a similar performance from Gallagher.  They'll hope getting more than last year's 12 starts from Harden balances out Dempster's likely regression.  Signing Dempster at $52MM seemed acceptable on November 18th, but now the commitment looks a bit steep.  Tweaking CHONE's innings projections and adding Jeff Samardzija to the mix, the '09 group projects around a 4.17 ERA.

The '08 bullpen posted a middling 4.10 ERA in 495.6 innings.  In what can only be seen as a cost-cutting move, the Cubs chose not to offer arbitration to Wood (a Type A free agent) after his strong season.  The team saved $5.8MM by replacing Wood with Gregg.  Sending Jose Ceda to Florida for a year of Gregg was seen by most as an overpay.  GM Jim Hendry overhauled the rest of the bullpen aside from Carlos Marmol and Neal Cotts, bringing in Heilman and Vizcaino in trades.  Longtime Cub Angel Guzman was given a spot, as he's out of options.  Patton was taken from the Rockies in the Rule 5 draft; he'll try to make the jump from High A ball.  The Cubs lost $1.6MM by changing their mind on Gaudin, to whom they tendered a contract in December but cut in April.  The Cubs' pen seems worse in the ninth inning but acceptable overall, projecting at a 3.96 ERA.

Defensively the Cubs ranked 9th in the NL according to The Fielding Bible II.  They're better in center field, so perhaps a win can be gained on defense.

I project the Cubs at 92 or 93 wins, but they have two of the game's biggest wild cards in Bradley and Harden.  The offense should mash again regardless, while the rotation looks good rather than great.

Bottom line: It'd be a major feat for the Cubs to reach the playoffs three years in a row, and this team projects as the division's best.  Hendry could've widened the gap with more payroll flexibility, though.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Brewers.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 16th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions:  Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper, Jorge Julio, R.J. Swindle, Chase Wright, Craig Counsell (re-signed), Joe Koshansky, Casey McGehee, Chris Duffy, Chris Capuano (re-signed), Wes Littleton.  Midseason: Todd Coffey

Subtractions: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Gabe Kapler, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota, Brian Shouse, Eric Gagne

The Brewers' batting lineup remains unchanged for 2009 (GM Doug Melvin decided not to trade Mike Cameron).  They ranked 7th in the NL last year with 4.63 runs scored per game.  Using CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool, the Brewers project to score 4.86 runs per game in '09.  The projection system sees better seasons from Hart, Braun, Fielder, Weeks, and Hall.

It will be impossible to replicate the 3.86 ERA posted by last year's starters.  329 of the rotation's 983.3 innings came from Sabathia and Sheets at a 2.52 ERA.  Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra form an interesting front two, but Melvin's main import was Looper for $4.75MM after his bid to retain Sabathia fell short.  Using a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Looper, and Wright, I tweaked CHONE's innings totals and arrived at a projected 4.44 ERA for the '09 rotation.

The bullpen, which posted a 3.89 ERA in 472.3 innings last year, has been overhauled again.  Many of last year's offenders are gone, with Hoffman signed to take over closing duties once he's healthy.  Julio was also added to the mix.  Carlos Villanueva quietly posted a 2.12 ERA and 4.43 K/BB ratio in 59.3 relief innings last year.  All in all, the '09 bullpen projects to a 3.84 ERA.  The Brewers' defense was third in the NL last year according to The Fielding Bible II.  The defense remains the same, except for subtractions of Kapler, Branyan, and Durham.

So perhaps the Brewers will score more runs, but the main difference is obviously their rotation.  Right now they project as an 85 win team, which should keep them in the wild card race. 

Bottom line: The Brewers did little to replace Sabathia and Sheets.  But with a breakout or two and/or another big summer trade, the Brewers may return to the playoffs in 2009.

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