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NL Notes: Rockies, Matz, Winker, Brewers, Ziegler

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The Rockies’ injury-plagued season has extended into the club’s farm system, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter) reports that pitching prospects Gabriel Hughes, Jackson Cox, and Jordy Vargas will all undergo Tommy John surgeries this week.  Dr. Keith Meister will perform all of the procedures, as well as the previously reported TJ surgery for veteran righy-hander Antonio Senzatela.

It’s a brutal setback for the three youngsters, all ranked by MLB Pipeline among the Rockies’ top 12 overall prospects, and Pipeline lists the trios as three of Colorado’s top four pitching prospects.  Hughes was the 10th overall pick of the 2022 draft, Cox was a second-round pick in that same draft, and the 19-year-old Vargas was an international signing in 2021.  Hughes was the furthest along of the trio since he made his Double-A debut this season, but now all three pitchers have been dealt a big setback in their young careers.  Given the usual recovery timeline for Tommy John procedures, there’s a chance any of Hughes, Cox, or Vargas might be able to return late in the 2024 campaign, but it is likelier that the right-handers will all be sidelined until 2025.

More from around the National League…

  • Most of the trade speculation about Cardinals pitching has focused on Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that an unknown American League club has considered acquiring Steven Matz.  The mystery team would use Matz as “rotation insurance or bullpen upgrade.”  Matz is still owed the remainder of his $10MM salary for 2023 as well as $24MM in 2024-25, and it seems like the Cardinals would have to eat a good chunk of that money to accommodate a deal.  Matz has struggled in both years of his original four-year, $44MM contract with St. Louis, but after losing his rotation job earlier this season, he has pitched considerably better since a move to the bullpen and a recent return to the starting five.  Matz has a 2.93 ERA over his last 30 2/3 innings and 11 appearances.
  • Jesse Winker had a big pinch-hit single in the ninth inning of the Brewers’ 3-2 win over the Reds tonight.  It was a nice moment within what has been a very rough season for Winker, who entered Monday hitting only .194/.316/.242 over 196 plate appearances.  These struggles have led to a reduced role, as manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel) “to this point [Winker] hasn’t given us production out of that spot….I think he understands it and just tries to be ready for an at-bat later in the day.”  The hope is that the move will “let him work on some things and make some adjustments,” with Winker perhaps being able to earn his way back into regular at-bats.  Winker was already limited to facing right-handed pitching due to his extreme splits, but he has only a .557 OPS against righties this season.
  • Mets pitching prospect Calvin Ziegler isn’t expected to pitch in 2023 after suffering a torn right quad, according to Mike Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link).  2023 becomes an entirely lost season for the 20-year-old, who had yet to pitch this year due to an elbow surgery to remove bone spurs.  Ziegler was the Mets’ second-round pick (46th overall) in the 2021 draft, with MLB Pipeline ranking him seventh in New York’s farm system and Baseball America ranking him 12th.  The right-hander’s 60-grade fastball and curveball has led to a lot of strikeouts, but Ziegler has had a lot of problems in reducing walks.  Unfortunately, he’ll now face another long layoff before he can continue his development.

Reds Notes: India, White Sox, Newman, Casali

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The White Sox have interest in Reds second baseman Jonathan India, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.  This item has some connection to a pair of other recent reports, one from last week about the Reds’ interest in Chicago’s pitchers, and an item from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand earlier today indicating that the Reds were at least open to consider moving India in a deal for controllable pitching.

However, Wittenmyer pushed back on Feinsand’s report, hearing that the Reds’ willingness to move India was “vastly overstated…and led to conversations assuring one of the most respected players in the clubhouse of the slim-to-none chance he’ll be traded.”  Listening to offers out of due diligence doesn’t translate that the Reds are particularly eager to move India, with Wittenmyer indicating that Cincinnati’s talks about India fall “into the category of there’s no such thing as an untouchable player,” rather than the front office actually shopping the second baseman.

An India trade might make sense on paper, given Cincinnati’s glut of young infield talent and the team’s strong need for rotation help for an unexpected playoff push.  That said, moving India might not be sensible from a chemistry standpoint, as Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, and Reds manager David Bell all spoke glowingly about India’s importance within the group.

“I don’t think you can really put into words what [India] means to this team,” Steer said. “He’s the guy who addresses the team after wins….He’s been through kind of every phase of what an organization goes through when they’re trying to win. He continues to be a great leader on and off the field, vocally, leading by example through his actions every single day.”

Wittenmyer cited the Brewers’ now-infamous trade of Josh Hader as an example of how a midseason deal that is sensible from a big-picture standpoint can be disastrous to the morale of a team trying to win now, as the Brewers were vocally demoralized in the wake of Hader’s move to the Padres last summer.  Obviously the Hader trade has become something of a cautionary tale for front offices, giving Reds GM Nick Krall even more to ponder he looks for ways to bolster his surprise contender.

Of course, the Reds players could warm up to a trade quickly if a major player came back to Cincinnati in return — for instance, Dylan Cease.  While Cease is one of four players the White Sox consider next to untouchable in trade talks, India (who is controlled through 2026) might be the kind of building block that might get the Sox considering moving the AL Cy Young Award runner-up.  Likewise, in what might be the middle ground between Wittenmyer and Feinsand’s reports, landing a frontline hurler like Cease would be the only scenario that might get Krall and company to part ways with India.

Lucas Giolito is Chicago’s top trade asset heading into the deadline, yet the Reds aren’t at all likely to move India for a pitcher who will be a free agent after the season.  Michael Kopech (who, like Cease, is controlled through 2025) could be an interesting target for the Reds, though Cincinnati might be wary of Kopech’s injury history.

Speaking of the Reds’ infield, Kevin Newman returned from the 10-day injured list today after a minimum 10-day absence due to gastritis.  The veteran has hit .260/.318/.375 over 225 plate appearances this season, getting a good chunk of time at third base, second base, and shortstop.  That said, Newman’s playing time has been reduced since the arrival of McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and now Christian Encarnacion-Strand in Cincinnati’s infield, and with the youngsters taking over, Newman looks like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline.

Newman’s activation was one of a few transactions made by the Reds today, as righty Levi Stoudt was optioned to Triple-A and Daniel Duarte was called up to bring a fresh arm into the pitching ranks.  More notably, catcher Curt Casali was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 21) due to a left foot contusion.

With Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile already on the active roster, the Reds aren’t short in the catching department.  Casali and Stephenson began the year in something of a timeshare behind the plate, as the Reds were trying to keep Stephenson healthy after his injury-shortened 2022 by using him regularly at DH and first base.  However, with Joey Votto’s return from the IL and the DH position being used to give at-bats to many young hitters, Stephenson has more increasingly taken on a regular catching workload, leaving Casali as an odd man out.

AL Central Notes: Lynn, Guardians, Twins, Turnbull

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The two-year, $38MM extension that Lance Lynn signed with the White Sox in July 2021 also contained some partial no-trade protection, allowing Lynn to block deals to 10 teams per year.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 clubs on Lynn’s no-trade list are the Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays.  Several of those teams are known be looking for pitching as the deadline approaches, though of Lynn’s 10 listed clubs, only Tampa Bay has been linked to the veteran right-hander to date.

This no-trade clause might not be much of an obstacle, as Rosenthal figures that Lynn would welcome the chance to join a contender.  There is also an $18MM club option on Lynn’s services that figures to be bought out (for $1MM) by the Sox or a new team, considering that Lynn has struggled to a 6.18 ERA over 115 innings this season.  Though home runs have been Lynn’s biggest issue, Rosenthal argues that joining a better defensive team would help Lynn’s fortunes, and some of his advanced metrics (like a 3.88 SIERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate) suggest that his ERA isn’t reflective of how well he has pitched in 2023.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Guardians are looking for a starting pitcher and a “complementary bat” at the deadline, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said during a recent edition of The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter links).  Injuries have thinned out Cleveland’s pitching staff, but offense might still be the bigger need given how inconsistent the Guards’ lineup has been all season.  However, Antonetti felt that the Guardians will helped by Bo Naylor getting regular playing time, as well as the revived bats of Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez.  “If there’s an opportunity to add another complementary bat that can ideally add some versatility, contribute in the outfield or get some at-bats at DH, that might be a place where we could also look to improve,” Antonetti said.
  • Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey shared his own wishlist during his own appearance on the Front Office (Twitter links), as Minnesota is looking at “ways to fortify the middle of” the bullpen, and possibly “more options late in the game.”  Falvey also said the Twins would like to add a right-handed hitter to a mostly left-handed lineup, but he praised the contributions of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer (both righty-swingers) to the roster since Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have “struggled at times.”
  • Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters that Spencer Turnbull is lined up for rehab starts on Tuesday and Sunday with the Tigers’ high-A affiliate.  Turnbull hasn’t pitched since May 6 due to neck discomfort, so he is already eligible to return from the 60-day injured list whenever he is fully ramped up.  It has been another tough setback for Turnbull, who missed some of the 2021 season and all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Red Sox, Hernandez, Jansen, Torres, Cortes

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The Orioles’ 5-3 victory over the Rays today extended Baltimore’s lead over Tampa Bay to two games, and continued a dream month for the upstart O’s.  Between Baltimore’s 13-6 record and the Rays’ 4-14 record in July, the Orioles have completely wiped out their 6.5-game deficit from the start of the month, and now look like genuine World Series contenders.  Even with this big surge, it remains to be seen how the O’s might approach the trade deadline, as ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that according to executives on other teams, the Orioles have thus far looked like “measured buyers” who are “willing to deal from position player surplus to upgrade pitching, but not perceived to be fishing for big, pricey deals, at this point.”

Should such a stance continue through August 1, Baltimore fans might not be pleased, as the fanbase was already annoyed enough last summer when the O’s dealt Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez at the deadline rather than make a push for a playoff spot.  (Of course, landing Yennier Cano from the Twins has made the Lopez trade a lot more popular in hindsight.)  Obviously selling isn’t on the radar for GM Mike Elias this year, but that also doesn’t necessarily mean a blockbuster move is in store.  Since the Orioles’ core of young talent is so promising, Elias might not see 2023 as the time for an all-in type of trade, especially considering that the O’s might not yet have decided which of their many star prospects they see as building blocks, and which might be trade chips.  Of course, history has shown that lower-level deadline trades can often lead to postseason success just as easily as a headline-grabbing transaction, so Elias can pursue plenty of avenues as he looks to put the final pieces to an exciting young team.

More from around the AL East…

  • During an appearance on The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that the club was looking for starting pitching at the deadline, as well as a left-handed hitting middle infielder.  Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, and even part-time second baseman Justin Turner all swing from the right side, as do the injured Trevor Story and Pablo Reyes.  Story’s return from the injured list should give the Red Sox more clarity on their muddled infield picture, yet there’s also a chance Boston could both buy and sell at the deadline, as the club did last year.  To this end, pending free agent Hernandez could be expendable, and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya writes that the Dodgers would have interest in a possible reunion if Hernandez was open to more of a part-time role.  Whereas Boston has too many right-handed bats, the Dodgers have a surplus of left-handed hitters in the outfield, so Hernandez could add both lineup balance and positional versatility as a player capable of working in multiple positions — essentially his old role when he previously played in L.A. in 2015-20.
  • X-rays were negative on Danny Jansen’s left forearm after the Blue Jays catcher was hit by a Bryan Woo pitch in today’s game.  Jansen was hit in the fifth inning and remained in the game until the seventh, and the Jays announced Jansen’s injury as a forearm contusion.  It seems like Jansen will be day-to-day for now, though the Blue Jays could be shorthanded behind the plate until he is ready, since the Jays’ next offday isn’t until Thursday.  Alejandro Kirk figures to be the starting catcher in the interim, with Tyler Heineman a call-up possibility from Triple-A, or Daulton Varsho perhaps an emergency catcher if Jansen only misses a game or two.
  • In a pair of Yankees injury updates, Gleyber Torres also left today’s game due to left hip tightness.  The issue isn’t serious enough at this time to require any tests, and manager Aaron Boone told The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and other reporters that Torres was already feeling better postgame.  Since New York doesn’t play on Monday, Torres might well not miss any game action after a day of rest.
  • Nestor Cortes will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A today, the Yankees announced.  Cortes hasn’t pitched since May 30 due to a strained rotator cuff, and the long layoff suggests that he’ll need multiple rehab outings before returning from the 60-day IL.  Cortes struggled to a 5.16 ERA over his first 11 starts of the season, but if he returns in his 2021-22 form, he’ll provide a major boost to New York’s rotation in August.

NL East Notes: Candelario, Marlins, Pham, Phillies, Dominguez, Hoskins

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The Marlins have interest in Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Miami views “Candelario as a perfect fit.”  With a cumulative -0.9 bWAR posted by Marlins third basemen this season, no team has received less from the hot corner than the Fish, as Jean Segura’s resurgence over the last few weeks haven’t been enough to erase his very rough performance over the first three months.  Segura could move into a utility role in the event of a Candelario trade, as Luis Arraez is a lineup fixture at second base, Jorge Soler is primarily a DH, and the hot-hitting Garrett Cooper is the primary first baseman.

Candelario is one of the more obvious trade candidates available heading into the deadline, as the Nationals are out of the race and Candelario will be a free agent after the season.  After a poor 2022 season with the Tigers, Candelario has bounced back nicely to hit .254/.333/.474 with 15 homers over 390 plate appearances with Washington.  He is owed roughly $1.8MM in remaining salary this season, which is a modest sum anyway but shouldn’t be a problem for the Marlins — owner Bruce Sherman has promised financial “resources” for deadline additions.  Of course, Sherman’s statement came before Miami suffered through an eight-game losing streak out of the All-Star break, but the Fish got back into the win column with today’s 3-2 win over the Rockies.

More from around the NL East…

  • Speaking of possible inter-division trades, Bob Nightengale also writes that the Phillies “would love to land” Mets outfielder Tommy Pham.  The Phillies are known to be looking for right-handed hitting, with an outfielder as an ideal fit if Bryce Harper is able to settle in as a first baseman.  Pham has an excellent .272/.356/.475 slash line and nine home runs over 250 PA with New York this season, making him an interesting rental target for several teams.  The 46-52 Mets appear to be poised to be deadline sellers in some fashion, and pending free agents like Pham are the likeliest players to be moved as the Amazins look to reload for 2024.  However, Pham has missed New York’s last few games with a groin injury, though he is expected to be back in action Tuesday.
  • Along these same lines, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times figures the Rays will check in on Mets reliever David Robertson.  Around $3.6MM remains on the one-year, $10MM free agent deal Robertson signed with New York last winter, and the veteran righty is a known quantity in Tampa after pitching for the Rays in 2021.
  • Seranthony Dominguez is set to throw a second rehab outing today, as the Phillies right-hander might be nearing a return from the 15-day injured list.  According to Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Dominguez might be activated as early as Monday if he is feeling good after today’s Triple-A game.  Dominguez has been sidelined since mid-June due to an oblique strain.  Coffey also provided an update on Rhys Hoskins, who will be traveling with the Phils on road trips for the remainder of the season as something of a mental release from the grind of his rehab.  Hoskins tore his left ACL during Spring Training and is expected to miss the entire season, but the first baseman is still hoping for a possible return if the Phillies make the playoffs.

Yankees Notes: Outfield, Judge, Loaisiga

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The Yankees shuffled their outfield mix today, optioning Oswaldo Cabrera and Franchy Cordero to the Triple-A while activating Greg Allen and Jake Bauers from the 10-day injured list. Bauers has been out since the beginning of the month with a rotator cuff contusion, while Allen has been on the shelf since early June with a strained right hip flexor.

The club is surely hoping the duo can help revitalize a beleaguered Yankees offense that has delivered a wRC+ of just 84 that ranks bottom four in the majors since star slugger Aaron Judge went on the injured list back in June. In 49 games this season, Bauers has slashed .224/.312/.470 with a solid wRC+ of 114 despite a strikeout rate nearing 30% thanks to a fantastic .246 ISO. Allen, meanwhile got into just 10 games with the Yankees before his trip to the IL. While he posted an excellent wRC+ of 138 during that limited time, a 41.2% strikeout rate and measly .162 xwOBA indicate that production is unsustainable. Nonetheless, Allen can nonetheless provide the Yankees with a switch-hitting outfielder with speed and quality defense off the bench.

The return of Bauers in particular could help provide the club’s lineup with a boost prior to the August 1 trade deadline, which is just over a week away. That being said, it goes without saying that the Yankees are going to need their $360MM man back to have any hope of turning around a season that’s seen them sink to fourth pace in the AL East despite a decent 52-47 record. To that end, the fans received good news today as Judge took live batting practice this morning from right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga, as relayed by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Judge had previously been reported as “close” to a return, but today’s exercise represents an additional step forward as he works his way back from the torn toe ligament that has kept him out of the lineup for nearly two months.

Loaisiga, himself, has been out for nearly three months since undergoing elbow surgery to remove a bone spur back in May. That he’s progressed to the point of facing live hitting represents a step forward in the rehab process for him, as well. The next step for Loaisiga appears to be a rehab assignment, which The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner relays could begin next weekend, per manager Aaron Boone. Despite the Yankees sporting an MLB-best bullpen ERA of 3.21 this season, a healthy and effective return from Loasigia, who sports a 3.04 ERA and 3.31 FIP in 145 innings of work since the beginning of the 2020 campaign, could provide a major boost to the Yankees down the stretch.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Rendon, Neto, Alvarez

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The Mariners placed outfielder AJ Pollock on the 10-day IL earlier today, with outfielder Taylor Trammell taking his place on the active roster. While Pollock has struggled to a wRC+ of just 51 in 138 plate appearances with Seattle this season, Pollock’s injury further exacerbates an outfield situation that has quickly become a problem for the club. Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez are both locked into starting spots in center and right field, respectively, but the absences of Pollock and Jarred Kelenic leave the club scrambling for options to fill out the rest of the club’s outfield mix. First baseman Mike Ford has taken over DH duties on a nearly full-time basis over the past month, while left field is set to be filled by a mix of depth options like Trammell, Dylan Moore, and Cade Marlowe.

To make matters worse for the Mariners, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relays that, according to manager Scott Servais, Kelenic isn’t expected back until early September. He’ll spend the next 4-6 weeks in a walking boot after kicking a water cooler out of frustration following a ninth-inning strikeout. The incident left Kelenic with a fractured left foot. With so few options available to cover for Kelenic in left field, the Mariners seem poised to look into adding an outfielder ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. The club has previously been connected to Mark Canha of the Mets, though Tommy Pham, Cody Bellinger, and Lane Thomas are other outfielders who could potentially move prior to the deadline.

More from the AL West…

  • Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon recently underwent an MRI that revealed a deep bone bruise in his shin, as noted by Doug Padilla of the Orange County Register. Rendon has been out since the beginning of the month with a shin contusion, though the injury is more serious than initially believed. Manager Phil Nevin explained the situation to reporters (including Padilla), saying that “There’s some significant bleeding inside the bone. This is more significant than we actually thought… We’re going to have to calm him down for a little while.” Nevin didn’t offer a new timetable for return, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger indicates that Rendon will be shut down for at least two more weeks.
  • Sticking with the Angels, shortstop Zach Neto was scratched from today’s game against the Pirates due to lower back tightness, per Padilla. Andrew Velazquez replaced Neto in the lineup at shortstop today. Padilla noted that Neto was willing to play through the discomfort, but the Angels decided to act cautiously and rest him. Padilla adds that the club is considering sitting him again for tomorrow’s game in order to give him a three day period to rest in conjunction with Monday’s off-day, though Bollinger adds that the club is hoping the issue is minor enough he’ll be back in the lineup tomorrow, per Nevin. The club’s first round pick in last year’s draft, Neto has impressed by not only advancing to the majors in his first professional season but providing solid production with a 110 wRC+ combined with strong defense at shortstop.
  • Slugger Yordan Alvarez appears to be nearing a return to the Astros, as he has begun a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Sugar Land. Alvarez was expected to begin his rehab assignment last week, but did not appear in a game at Triple-A until this past Wednesday. He’s now appeared in three rehab games, and while it’s unclear when he’ll return to the big league club, his upcoming return is sure to boost the club’s lineup. While he’s been limited to just 57 games this season due to injuries, Alvarez has slashed an incredible .277/.388/.589 with a wRC+ of 167. With Alvarez on the shelf, Corey Julks has been the club’s primary DH in recent weeks.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Twins, Carpenter, Ashby

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The Cardinals saw a pair of high-profile players exit today’s loss to the Cubs due to injury today. Catcher Willson Contreras exited the game in the sixth inning with right hip tightness before third baseman Nolan Arenado exited the game in the ninth inning. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Contreras felt some soreness in his hip while blocking pitches early in the game that was then aggravated upon running the bases later on, while Arenado fouled a ball off his lower left leg earlier in the game. While he initially stayed in the game, Arenado’s leg began to stiffen up during a lengthy rain delay later in the game, prompting Arenado’s exit. Per MLB.com’s John Denton, Arenado told reporters that he’ll “be fine” on Sunday, indicating he could return to the lineup without missing time. Denton added that Contreras is listed as day-to-day.

Losing either Contreras or Arenado for significant time would be a major blow to the St. Louis. While the club is in fourth place in a weak NL Central division with an abysmal 44-55 record, the club has performed better of late with a solid 17-13 record in their last thirty games. Both Arenado and Contreras have been key pieces in that success. Since that month of play began, Arenado boasts a strong .288/.336/.586 slash line while Contreras has caught fire to the tune of a .373/.472/.653 line in 21 games. If Contreras ends up missing time, the Cardinals figure to rely on youngster Ivan Herrera behind the plate alongside backup Andrew Knizner.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • With Twins infielder Jorge Polanco nearing a return from the injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Polanco would be taking reps at third base during his rehab assignment. The position change, Baldelli explained, is designed to keep second baseman Edouard Julien in the lineup after Polanco’s return. Julien has been a revelation for the Twins in his rookie season, slashing a phenomenal .318/.399/.565 with a wRC+ of 167. With Polanco set to shift to the hot corner, the likes of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer figure to see their playing time reduced upon his return.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter is drawing significant trade interest, but that Detroit is expected to hold onto the lefty slugger. The 25-year-old Carpenter has done nothing but hit since reaching the majors late last season, with a .257/.317/.493 slash line in 312 career plate appearances that’s good for a wRC+ of 125. Carpenter has shown particularly prodigious power, with 17 homers despite only half a season’s worth of trips to the plate. Given his offensive success, it’s hardly a surprise that Morosi notes the Tigers see Carpenter as part of the club’s future. Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Spencer Torkelson are among the other young pieces already in the majors who could be key factors in the club’s eventual return to contention.
  • Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby has yet to pitch in the majors this year after undergoing shoulder surgery back in April, but he’s making progress toward a return at some point this season. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relays that Ashby has been on a schedule involving 30-pitch bullpen sessions on Tuesdays and Fridays, and that while there are still hurdles before he can return to game action, he’s expected to head to Arizona next week to continue his rehab. Upon his return, Ashby figures to pitch in out of the bullpen, a role in which he owns a career 3.66 ERA across 39 1/3 innings of work with a 32.5% strikeout rate.

AL East Notes: Story, Mullins, Green

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Red Sox infielder Trevor Story is beginning a rehab assignment today, with Ian Browne of MLB.com relaying the details. Story will play five innings at shortstop in Friday’s game before serving as the designated hitter on Saturday and returning to the shortstop position on Sunday.

The shortstop position in Boston has been in flux since it was reported in January that Story had undergone internal brace surgery on his right elbow. They’ve rotated various players through the position in his absence, including Enrique Hernández, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes and others. The Red Sox have a collective .216/.272/.322 batting line from the position, which translates to a wRC+ of 59, placing them 27th out of the 30 clubs in the league.

Story is a career .268/.336/.513 hitter and would certainly be a boost if he could come back at that level, though it’s no guarantee that he will. He hit .251/.329/.471 in his final year in Colorado and then .238/.303/.434 last year. After missing all of this season so far, it remains to be seen what form he will be in when he gets back. The Sox are currently three games out of a playoff spot and even a diminished version of Story should be an upgrade over the production they’ve had from the shortstop position thus far.

Some more notes from the toughest division in the league…

  • The Orioles placed outfielder Cedric Mullins on the injured list earlier this week due to a groin strain, his second trip to the IL this year for that injury. Just the day prior, he had said he was hoping to avoid the IL, which made it fair to expect this stint would be minimal. That may not be the case, however, with Mullins providing more details to the media yesterday. He said that new symptoms emerged once his soreness went away, per Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner, with no timeline for his return right now. He said he’s hopeful of returning for the back end of the season, per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball. That murkier timeline is surely an unpleasant development for the O’s, as Mullins continue to be an impact player when healthy. He’s hit .259/.347/.454 this year for a wRC+ of 123 and stolen 14 bases. His progress in the weeks to come will hopefully provide some more clarity but it doesn’t seem like an immediate return is likely.
  • Blue Jays reliever Chad Green is set to begin a rehab assignment on Saturday, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The Jays signed Green in the offseason to a convoluted deal, knowing that he wouldn’t be an option in the first half after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. He’s now rehabbing at an interesting time of the season, with the trade deadline just over the horizon. The righty has 272 appearances under his belt with a 3.17 ERA,  32.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. All contending clubs are looking for relief help at this time of year but Green’s impending return gives the Jays a chance to have that bullpen boost come from within. They are currently 54-43 and tied with the Astros for the second Wild Card spot. Green’s return will also give the club a couple of months to evaluate his status before deciding on the layered option structure of his contract. They first have to decide on triggering a three-year, $27MM option with $1MM in bonuses. If they decline, Green can exercise a 2024 player option with a $6.25MM salary and $2MM in bonuses. If he declines that, the Jays can trigger a two-year, $21MM option with $1MM in bonuses.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Deadline Approach, Florial

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The Yankees have dropped three straight games and have now tallied just two victories in their past 10 contests. Sitting in the unfamiliar setting of last place in the American League East, there are mounting questions about the team’s trade deadline approach. It would be out of character, to say the least, for the Yankees to engineer a wide-scale selloff at the deadline. And with New York still only two and a half games back from an AL Wild Card spot, that seems decidedly unlikely.

That said, the Yankees also have a porous roster, particularly with Aaron Judge on the injured list and facing a nebulous timeline for his return. General manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that it’s fair to characterize Judge’s return as “close” before taking a noncommittal stance on whether that constituted a matter of days or weeks (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It remains unclear when the reigning AL MVP will return to the lineup; the Yankees are hitting .223/.294/.374 as a team in his absence.

With the team reeling and currently in the AL East cellar, there have naturally been calls from the fans for the Yankees to sell at the deadline, a possibility that was discussed on the most recent episode of the MLBTR Podcast. At least to some extent, that could wind up being the case. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Yankees could work to dip under the top tier of the luxury tax in over the next couple weeks. Presumably, that’d come by dealing away short-term players — those who’ll reach free agency at season’s end or perhaps those controlled only through the 2024 season.

At least with regard to their crop of impending free agents, however, that could be easier said than done. Luis Severino has struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 48 2/3 innings thus far, and the underlying metrics don’t give much cause for optimism. His 17.4% strikeout rate is a career-low, and his 9.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career. He’s averaged 2.22 homers per nine innings pitched, yielding hard contact at the highest rate of his career, and is sitting on career-low swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates.

Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is hitting just .251/.309/.369. That’s 11% worse than average, by measure of wRC+. Acquired to be a stopgap at shortstop, Kiner-Falefa has just eight innings at that position in 2023 and has been used primarily as an outfielder this season. Defensive metrics haven’t provided a strong review of his glovework there, however.

Center fielder Harrison Bader is also a free agent at season’s end and is playing his customary brand of standout defense. However, his .275 on-base percentage also ranks 295th of the 326 players with at least 150 plate appearances this season. His overall .246/.275/.427 batting line checks in below average.

Frankie Montas, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. Trading any of Severino ($15MM in 2023), Montas ($7.5MM), Kiner-Falefa ($6MM) or Bader ($4.7MM) could be enough to dip the Yankees under the top tier of luxury penalization, as Roster Resource currently has them at $294.1MM — just $1.1MM over the limit.

The most palatable rental option for the Yankees to trade would be southpaw Wandy Peralta, who’s earning $3.35MM this season. He’s currently sporting a 2.48 ERA, but his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his 13.6% walk rate is an obvious eyesore. Still, Peralta is averaging just shy of 96 mph on his heater and also possesses a huge 63.2% ground-ball rate.

Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a Gleyber Torres trade, which could simultaneously fetch more talent in return and also trim payroll more than any of those rentals aside from Severino. He’s earning $9.95MM in 2023 and hitting a solid .264/.333/.430 with 14 homers. The Yankees also have an in-house, MLB-ready alternative in young Oswald Peraza, who struggled in the Majors earlier but is slashing a .261/.352/.495 in Triple-A.

Looking at the situation as a whole, however, the final tax barrier is an odd line to draw in the sand. It’s a purely monetary line of penalization, and the Yankees are only narrowly north of it. The Yankees already committed to having their top pick in next year’s draft pushed back by 10 places when they exceeded the third tier of penalty, which sits at $273MM.

Striving to dip under that threshold would perhaps be logical but also unrealistic; trimming more than $21MM from the remaining payroll at this juncture of the season would be immensely difficult. Trades at this stage would only spare the Yankees the remainder those players’ salaries. That’s roughly $5.3MM on Severino, $1.7MM on Bader, $2.1MM on Kiner-Falefa, $1.2MM on Peralta and $3.5MM on Torres. Even trading that entire quintet would only get the Yankees about two-thirds of the way there.

None of that even takes into consideration the possibility of the Yankees simultaneously adding pieces, either. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted earlier in the week that in addition to the Yankees’ desire to upgrade in the outfield, they’ve been monitoring the catching, starting pitching and bullpen markets. That wide swath of needs speaks to the predicament in which the Yankees currently find themselves, but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces. Both Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson and Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk have been of some interest to the Yankees, per Feinsand. Carlson, controlled through 2026, would be an affordable and long-term solution in the outfield.

The Yankees potentially have another affordable and controllable option down in Triple-A, where former top prospect Estevan Florial has put together a huge season. Designated for assignment on Opening Day and unclaimed on waivers, Florial has batted .291/.388/.535 with an already career-high 21 homers in just 335 plate appearances.

That production hasn’t been enough to get him a look in the big leagues, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic took a look at Florial’s situation, speaking to Triple-A skipper Shelley Duncan and others about the 25-year-old’s work ethic and motivation in the wake of that DFA and subsequent outright. It’s frankly surprising that the Yankees have continued to lean on journeymen Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and the aforementioned Kiner-Falefa in the outfield rather than give Florial some type of audition. Kuty suggests the team could look to trade him at the deadline, which could be a means of adding help in another area.

Broadly speaking, it’s strange to be discussing the Yankees in this context. They’re typically a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, one that has often acted aggressively and decisively in an effort to tighten their existing grip on a postseason spot. It’s a different feel in the Bronx this season, however, and various, simultaneous reports regarding payroll reduction, selling off short-term players and the possibility to add at virtually any spot on the roster only underscore the uncertainty surrounding the team.

We increasingly see modern front offices toe the line between “buyer” and “seller,” making moves in both directions in a given deadline season. The Yankees appear poised for such a hybrid approach to the ’23 deadline, though their play in the next couple weeks will surely prove instructive as well. If they’re able to right the ship and go on a winning streak of any note, Cashman & Co. could be emboldened to make moves that fall closer to the win-now side of the scale. Should the pendulum swing in the other direction, there’d be more urgency to take a step back and employ a longer-term focus.

The Yankees have one more game in Anaheim, where they’ve already lost two, before returning home to host struggling Royals and Mets teams for a combined five games. They’ll then head to Baltimore for three games and have one game against the division-leading Rays before the deadline rolls around. Their performance against a pair of sub-.500 teams on that homestand and in the subsequent four games against the top two teams in their own division will be worth watching with a careful eye; every win or loss is crucial at this point.

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