Central Notes: Frazier, Pirates, Twins, Tigers, Miller
The Pirates are coming off a season that saw the club take some steps forward as young players like Jack Suwinski and Johan Oviedo took steps forward while prospects like Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez rose to the majors for the first time. Unfortunately, those young players didn’t help Pittsburgh much in the standings as the club finished fourth in the NL Central with a 76-86 record, 16 games back of the division-leading Brewers while key pieces like Oviedo and Rodriguez are expected to miss the 2024 season.
Those obstacles aren’t stopping the Pirates from participating in the shallower end of free agency, however. The club has already inked Rowdy Tellez and brought back Andrew McCutchen to help fill out the lineup, and Kevin Gorman of TribLive relays comments from GM Ben Cherington indicating the club hopes to add at least one more position player to the mix. One player Gorman notes the club has been connected to in the rumor mill is second baseman Adam Frazier, who spent parts of six seasons in Pittsburgh following the club drafting him in the sixth-round of the 2013 draft and promoting him to the majors in 2016.
Since the Pirates traded Frazier to the Padres partway through the 2021 season, Frazier struggled with both San Diego and Seattle before catching on with the Orioles on a one-year deal last offseason. Though Frazier saw his playing time reduced somewhat by the presence of young, up-and-coming players like Jordan Westburg vying for playing time at the keystone, he still got semi-regular playing time in Baltimore. In 455 trips to the plate with the Orioles last season, Frazier slashed .240/.300/.396 with a wRC+ of 93, a considerable upgrade over the 80 wRC+ he posted in Seattle the previous year. While approximately league average offense and rough defense (-15 OAA, -1 DRS) at second base isn’t exactly an impact signing, the addition of Frazier to the Pirates lineup could offer the club a stable, veteran solution at the keystone while not blocking the likes of Nick Gonzalez from taking a step forward and seizing everyday playing time in the majors.
More from around the league’s Central divisions…
- The Twins have faced plenty of uncertainty regarding the future of their TV broadcasting situation this offseason, prompting the club to cut payroll even after the club won its first playoff game since 2004. Some clarity of the specifics of Minnesota’s situation could be on the horizon as we head into the new year, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. Miller reports that the Twins have been in the midst of negotiations with Bally Sports North to televise the club’s games in 2024. Though the previous deal between the sides concluded after the 2023 campaign, Miller indicates that BSN has “strong and sincere interest” in a one-year arrangement with the Twins. If the Twins aren’t able to come together with BSN on a deal for 2024, Miller suggests that the club’s games would likely be distributed by MLB as the league did with the Padres and Diamondbacks in 2023.
- Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke effusively about newly-signed right-hander Shelby Miller after he landed in Detroit on a one-year pact last week. According to Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, Harris was particularly impressed by Miller’s performance with the Dodgers after coming off the injured list last summer. Miller’s final eleven appearances with the club saw him post 12 scoreless innings as he scattered seven hits and one walk while striking out 25.6% of batters faced. Per McCosky, Harris went on to suggest that Miller’s role has yet to be determined. The righty could compete for a spot at “the very back” of the Tigers’ bullpen alongside the likes of Alex Lange and Andrew Chafin or could be used in a multi-inning role. Miller recorded more than three outs in eleven of his thirty-six appearances with the Dodgers last year.
West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto
The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.
According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.
If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.
More from around MLB’s West divisions…
- While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
- Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
- While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.
Chicago Notes: Lee, Candelario, Pepiot
After losing Jeimer Candelario, Cody Bellinger, and Marcus Stroman to free agency last month, the Cubs figure to look for additional help at the corner infield spots and in the rotation while also continuing a search for a left-handed bat that saw them connected to both Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani before the superstars landed with the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, that search for a left-handed bat took them to a somewhat unusual place, as Mooney indicates that Chicago pursued star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee prior to him landing in San Francisco on a six-year, $113MM deal last week.
It’s something of a peculiar fit, as the Cubs have Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked into the corner outfield spots with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his 80-grade glove in center field expected to break into the majors as a regular sometime next season. While that hasn’t stopped president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office from pursuing Soto and a reunion with Bellinger, it’s worth noting that Bellinger has plenty of experience at first base and that Soto is a fringe defender in the outfield who may be best suited for a DH role. Lee, by contrast, has spent his entire professional career in the outfield and is viewed as a plus defender on the grass with a chance to stick in center.
Despite the uncertain fit, Mooney suggests that the 25-year-old’s youth, left-handed bat, and ability to play center were all attractive factors in the eyes of the Cubs. Speculatively speaking, the club may have seen Lee as a piece who could slot into center field on Opening Day to allow Crow-Armstrong more time to develop in the minors. Upon Crow-Armstrong’s promotion, the club could have utilized the DH slot, where they have no regular starting option, to rest Suzuki, Happ, and Lee by divvying up time in the outfield corners between the three of them while also allowing them to all play on an everyday basis.
More rumblings out of Chicago…
- Sticking with the Cubs, Mooney suggests that the club “didn’t express interest” in retaining Candelario after he hit the open market last month. Candelario came up as a member of the Cubs but was shipped to the Tigers at the 2017 trade deadline alongside infielder Isaac Paredes in exchange for catcher Alex Avila and left-hander Justin Wilson. Candelario made his way back to Chicago this past summer when the Cubs landed him in exchange for infield prospect Kevin Made and lefty relief prospect D.J. Herz. Candelario’s second stint with the Cubs was shortened by a two-week stint on the injured list in September due to a back issue. Though Candelario was a strong fit for the Cubs’ offseason needs as a switch-hitting infielder who can contribute at both infield corners as well as DH, it’s possible the club was turned off from pursuing him by the relatively modest .234/.318/.445 slash line he put up in 157 trips to the plate with Chicago this season. Candelario wound up signing with the Reds on a three-year, $45MM deal earlier this month.
- Looking toward the south side, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox were interested in right-hander Ryan Pepiot as part of a possible return package while discussing a Dylan Cease trade with the Dodgers earlier this winter. Pepiot ultimately was shipped to the Rays alongside outfielder Jonny DeLuca in exchange for oft-injured ace Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot. It’s unclear if the Dodgers and White Sox are still engaged in discussions regarding Cease following the Glasnow deal, though the Dodgers are certainly in need of multiple starting pitchers this offseason and would surely benefit from the addition of Cease, who sports a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the past three seasons, to their rotation mix.
Central Notes: Cubs, Royals, India, Twins
The Cubs have received interest on young right-handers Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal notes that the club is “not necessarily inclined” to move either youngster, but could become more open to it if they’re successful in adding a veteran starter this offseason. Chicago has been connected to NPB lefty Shota Imanaga on the free agent market and Guardians righty Shane Bieber on the trade market, among others.
Wesneski, 26, was a sixth-round pick by the Yankees in the 2019 draft and was shipped to the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for sidearming right-hander Scott Effross. Wesneski made his MLB debut with the Cubs that September and impressed down the stretch, with a 2.18 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate in 33 innings of work across six appearances. Wesneski went on to win the club’s fifth starter job out of camp in 2023. That decision proved to be an ill-fated one, as he struggled to a 5.09 ERA and 5.90 FIP across eight starts before being demoted to Triple-A. After spending a month in an up-and-down role shuttling between Triple-A and the majors, Wesneski settled into a multi-inning relief role in late June and posted a 3.79 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate across his final 22 appearances (35 2/3 innings).
Brown, 24, has yet to make his major league debut after being acquired from the Phillies in exchange for David Robertson at the same deadline the Cubs landed Wesneski. Upon acquiring Brown, the Cubs immediately promoted him to Double-A where he held his own, with a 4.06 ERA and 32.1% strikeout rate in seven starts down the stretch. Brown returned to the Double-A level for his first four starts of the 2023 season and dominated to a microscopic 0.45 ERA while posting an incredible 39% strikeout rate across 20 innings of work. That success saw Brown earn a promotion to the Triple-A level, where he struggled for the first time in his time with Chicago. While he struck out 31.1% of batters faced, the right-hander’s ERA ballooned to 5.33 in 72 2/3 innings of work as he walked a whopping 15.8% of batters faced. If Brown is able to keep those control issues in check, he figures to be a big league rotation option as soon as next season.
While Wesneski and Brown both come with flaws, it’s hardly a surprise that pitching-needy clubs would be interested in either youngster’s services. After all, controllable starting pitching is among the most sought-after commodities in the league, and a deal with the Cubs involving a lower-level arm like Wesneski or Brown could be more affordable than trading for one of the established regulars who have found their names in the rumor mill this offseason like Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo or any number of young Mariners right-handers.
More from around MLB’s Central divisions…
- The Royals have gone on something of a spending spree this offseason, adding Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to their rotation, Chris Stratton and Will Smith in the bullpen, and Hunter Renfroe to their outfield mix. That’s a combined outlay of more than $100MM in guaranteed money, and the additions have left them with a projected payroll of $112MM for the 2024 campaign according to RosterResource. That being said, GM J.J. Picollo indicated to reporters (including Anne Rogers of MLB.com) that the club has likely done most of its heavy lifting for the offseason. Picollo noted that the club “would be content” with the additions they’ve made this offseason if they were to enter Spring Training with their current group of players, though Picollo did note that the club is going to continue to explore ways to strengthen its depth throughout the remainder of the offseason.
- MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicates that trade talks surrounding Reds second baseman Jonathan India “remain active,” and that multiple teams are engaged with Cincinnati on the infielder. Recent reporting indicated that the club feels no additional urgency to part with India or another member of its crowded infield mix even after adding another bat to the logjam in the form of Jeimer Candelario, who signed with the Reds on a three-year deal earlier this month. The 27-year-old started his career off with a bang by winning the NL Rookie of the Year award back in 2021 but has been an essentially league average bat in the two years since, slashing .246/.333/.394 across 960 trips to the plate since the start of the 2022 campaign.
- The Twins look to be parting ways with a longtime fixture in their front office, as Darren Wolfson of Skor North and Brandon Warne of Access Twins report that vice president Rob Antony will not have his contract renewed by the club when it expires at the end of the current calendar year. Antony first joined the Twins organization back in 1988 and has worked in baseball operations for the club since 1996, including a stint as assistant GM from 2007 to 2021. Antony is perhaps most notable for his brief stint as acting GM of the Twins in 2016, when he bridged the gap between Terry Ryan and Derek Falvey as the club’s head of baseball operations.
NL West Notes: Snell, Dodgers, Manaea, Giants, E-Rod
“The Dodgers are showing interest in seemingly every pitcher but Blake Snell,” Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes, running counter to Heyman’s own report from a month ago suggesting that Los Angeles was one of the teams in on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. While Heyman didn’t go into specifics about why Snell may no longer be on the Dodgers’ radar, obviously much has changed for L.A. within the last month — namely the Shohei Ohtani signing and (on the more immediate pitching front) the impending trade and extension involving Tyler Glasnow.
Since Los Angeles exceeded the luxury tax last season, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft as compensation for Ohtani, who rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer. Snell also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the thought of giving up two more picks to add Snell might simply not be palatable for the Dodgers. While Snell’s market has been a little less clear than other top pitchers on the free agent market, such clubs as the Giants, Red Sox, and Padres have all been linked to Snell at various points, and it remains to be seen what other suitors might emerge once the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jordan Montgomery are off the board. The Dodgers continue to be involved in the hunt for Yamamoto, and could pursue other trade options beyond Glasnow in order to address the lack of proven depth in their rotation.
More from around the NL West…
- The Giants remain interested in potentially re-signing Sean Manaea, The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports. There hasn’t been much buzz on the left-hander since he opted out of the final year (and a $12.5MM salary) of his previous contract with San Francisco to test the open market, though it stands to reason that Manaea might get more looks as more and more free agent pitchers come off the board. Likewise, the Giants’ pitching needs haven’t really changed since the offseason began, and Manaea might be a reasonable addition even if they did land Yamamoto or Snell considering that the Giants could deal from their crop of young pitchers to bolster their lineup. Manaea had a 4.44 ERA and an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate over 117 2/3 innings for the Giants last season, working in a modified swingman role as a starter, bulk pitcher, or piggyback starter.
- Eduardo Rodriguez‘s past history with Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo helped pave the way to the Snakes’ four-year, $80MM contract with the free agent southpaw, as Rodriguez told reporters (including Theo Mackie and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Hazen was Boston’s GM and Lovullo the bench coach during Rodriguez’s past stint with the Red Sox, and this familiarity resulted in what Hazen described as a two-hour meeting that touched on both the past and what Rodriguez can bring to the D’Backs going forward. Rodriguez and agent Gene Mato met with seven teams during the Winter Meetings, and the field was narrowed to the D’Backs and a mystery team before Arizona sealed the deal in a second sitdown.
Reds Notes: Candelario, India, Yankees
The free agency of infielder Jeimer Candelario concluded in surprising fashion recently, with the Reds agreeing to terms with him despite a pre-existing infield logjam. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently took a look at the club’s situation in a pair of columns, noting that the club expects Candelario to play some second base but also that his signing doesn’t increase the chances of Jonathan India being traded.
Candelario has spent his entire major and minor league career playing first and third base, but never at the keystone. His only experience at that position, according to his Baseball Reference page, was two innings of work during winter ball in the 2020-2021 season of the Dominican Professional Baseball League. Despite that lack of experience, the Reds may be willing to put him there in order to maximize versatility. President of baseball operations Nick Krall also recently said that India could perhaps see some time at first.
As Wittenmyer points out, despite the apparent embarrassment of riches on the Cincinnati infield, Candelario and India are the only ones with more than a year of major league experience. Spencer Steer debuted in 2022 but he seems ticketed for a full-time move to the outfield. Each of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marté and Christian Encarnacion-Strand debuted in 2023. That could still qualify as a surplus since they all looked to be in fairly good form in 2023, to varying degrees, but it’s also within the realm of possibility that someone in that group ends up enduring some kind of sophomore slump. Then there’s the ever-present possibility of a significant injury completely changing the calculus.
The focus on playing multiple positions should help the club overcome any such development. Candelario can take the corners and perhaps second base as well, if such a move is required. India could be at second and maybe first base will be a possibility as well. McLain can take either middle infield spot while De La Cruz and Marté have spent significant time at the positions on the left side, with brief stints at second base as well. Encarnacion-Strand is mostly a first baseman but has appeared at third base and in the outfield corners.
The Reds are still on the hunt for some pitching, and might end up pulling the trigger on a deal that subtracts from this group. They’ve had interest in pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease, none of whom will be just given away by their current club. In terms of leverage in trade negotiations involving those players, it would be in the best interest of Krall and his club to portray themselves as not being motivated to make a trade. But there’s also logic to having extra depth and letting a meritocracy distribute the playing time as the season rolls along.
India was already viewed by some observers as expendable even before Candelario was added into the mix. With this news that Candelario might spend some time at the keystone, that would seem to only make him more redundant but Wittenmyer relays that both players are in Cincy’s plans for 2024.
Wittenmyer also notes that the Yankees were in on Candelario before they finalized the Juan Soto deal. Once that trade was completed, it allowed the Reds to take the lead with Candelario. That would perhaps suggest the Yanks had some willingness to bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role or perhaps then put Gleyber Torres on the trading block. But after the club got the offensive boost they were looking for by remaking their outfield with the additions of Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo, manager Aaron Boone announced that LeMahieu would man the hot corner for them in 2024.
NL West Notes: Lee, Padres, Soto, Giants, Rockies
The Padres’ interest in Jung Hoo Lee is well known, though the large amount of interest in Lee’s services threatens to push him out of San Diego’s price range, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes. MLBTR projected five years and $50MM for Lee in his first Major League contract as he made the jump from the KBO League, yet Lin hears that the the 25-year-old outfielder could land closer to $90MM, without counting the posting fee a team would additionally owe to the Kiwoom Heroes, Lee’s KBO League club.
Finances have been an big subplot of the Padres’ offseason, as the team’s debt-driven need to reduce payroll has already resulted in Juan Soto‘s trade to the Yankees, as well as the seeming unlikelihood of a reunion with such high-profile free agents as Blake Snell, Josh Hader, or Seth Lugo (and Nick Martinez has already signed with the Reds). San Diego has roughly $155.7MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, yet with several roster holes to fill and a rough payroll limit of around $200MM, spending more than expected on Lee will make it more difficult for the Padres to properly address every need. Lee’s agent Scott Boras isn’t in the habit of giving pseudo-hometown discounts, even if San Diego holds particular appeal to Lee since he is best friends with Ha-Seong Kim.
More from around the NL West…
- Returning to the Soto trade talks, San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said the Soto field was comprised of 10 teams with three finalists. The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea reports that the Giants were one of the initial 10, though they didn’t make the cut for two central reasons — the Padres preferred the Yankees’ pitching-heavy trade package, and the Padres weren’t keen on moving Soto to a division rival. San Francisco does have a solid batch of young pitching depth of its own, and those arms have naturally drawn interest from other teams given the league-wide demand for pitching. This would seemingly help the Giants’ chances of landing some high-end hitting talent, depending on how much of that depth San Francisco is willing to surrender.
- The Rockies have often been accused of lagging behind other teams in the analytics department, though MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes that Colorado is preparing to open a performance lab at its Spring Training facilities. This is the latest step for a research and development department that has 11 staffers and planning to add more, as most other clubs have considerably more employees in similar departments around the league. “It’s kind of like college football used to be, where there was an arms race for facilities,” Rockies R&D director Brian Jones said. “This is similar. It’s an arms race for talented people — research and development, analysts, biomechanists — every kind of advantage.”
Shohei Ohtani Notes: Advertising Revenue, 40-Man Roster Move
The baseball world is still reeling from the news of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani signing a ten-year, $700MM deal with the Dodgers. Not only is it the largest contract in baseball history (by a mile), it is the most lucrative deal for any professional athlete, surpassing the four-year €555MM contract (approximately $674MM in USD) soccer star Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona in 2017. Given the unprecedented nature of the deal, it’s more than fair for fans to wonder if it makes financial sense. Is Ohtani genuinely worth nearly twice as much as Aaron Judge? Can a single player truly provide $70MM in value per year over the next ten years?
Moreover, various outlets have reported that the Dodgers significantly outbid the competition to secure Ohtani’s services. J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation reports that the Dodgers upped their offer by as much as $100MM on the final day of negotiations. Jon Heyman of the New York Post quotes a team source from one of the finalists, who claimed, “We certainly were not at 699 [million dollars].” Meanwhile, when asked if the Angels had made an offer close to that $700MM number, team president John Carpino simply responded, “No comment” (per Sarah Valenzuela of the L.A. Times).
However, it is critical to remember that Ohtani’s deal is not worth $700MM in present-day value, due to the deferred payments in the contract. As Jeff Passan of ESPN eloquently explained, “Money today is more valuable than money tomorrow, inflation being what it is.” Thus, the other finalists for Ohtani might not have offered him anywhere close to $700MM total, but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers blew any other offer out of the water in terms of present-day value.
More to the point, while Ohtani’s contract might be unprecedented, so too is Ohtani an unprecedented player. The value he will bring to his new organization goes beyond his performance on the field, and the Dodgers could be in for a windfall if they know how to market their brand-new international superstar. Sam Blum and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic quote an anonymous MLB evaluator who claims the deal will “pay for itself within six or seven years… Even just on advertising alone.” That might be an exaggeration, but still, it’s clear how highly Ohtani is valued around the league.
As many sources have pointed out (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today), Ohtani earned approximately $40MM in endorsement deals last offseason. The MLB player with the next highest endorsement-related income was Mike Trout, who took home $5MM. If Ohtani can personally command so much money, the team he plays for should be able to cash in big as well.
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, the Angels earned somewhere between $10MM and $20MM per year in “Ohtani-related advertising, promotions, [and] marketing revenue.” Nightengale believes that number was even higher, claiming Ohtani “brought in $25 million a year.” Both reporters suggest the Dodgers could double that revenue, thanks to their higher level of popularity, both locally and across the globe. At the high end of that estimation, the Dodgers would earn back more than half of Ohtani’s annual salary, and the team is surely hoping he will continue to bring extra value to the franchise long after his ten-year deal is complete.
On that note, it’s worth acknowledging that although the Dodgers are regularly big spenders, their front office has demonstrated a keen ability to get the best bang for its buck. While some high-spending teams have crashed and burned in recent years, the Dodgers have made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons, winning ten NL West division titles in that time. They have won over 100 games in four of the last five years, and the only year they didn’t, the shortened 2020 campaign, they went 43-17 (.717, a 116-win pace) en route to a World Series championship. This team spends in abundance, but they don’t spend frivolously. If the Dodgers are paying Ohtani $700MM, it’s because they think he’s worth even more, and they haven’t given us any reason to doubt their accounting so far.
In other Ohtani news, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times points out that the signing has not yet been made official. However, that doesn’t mean the deal is at risk of falling through. Ohtani himself has already confirmed the agreement, and it’s hard to imagine his physical would hold up the deal; the Dodgers already know he is recovering from his second UCL procedure and won’t pitch in 2024. Instead, Harris suggests that the Dodgers are still figuring out their corresponding 40-man roster move. The club’s roster is currently full, so they will need to make a trade or designate someone for assignment in order to finalize Ohtani’s contract. What’s more, they also need to free up a roster spot for veteran reliever Joe Kelly, whose one-year, $8MM contract has not been finalized either. Expect a trade or a roster move in the coming days.
NL Notes: Alonso, Yamamoto, Dodgers, Brewers
The Mets and first baseman Pete Alonso have not engaged in extension talks this offseason, according to Tim Healey of Newsday. Healey adds that it’s as of yet unclear if the club intends to broach the subject of a long-term deal with Alonso this winter.
Reports last month indicated that Alonso hopes to surpass recent long-term deals signed by the likes of Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman, and the 29-year-old changed representation to the Boras Corporation earlier this offseason. For his part, Scott Boras told reporters (including Healey) at the Winter Meetings that he’s spoken to president of baseball operations David Stearns and that he and Alonso are “all ears” regarding potential negotiations. Healey goes on to suggest that Alonso could be on track to follow in the footsteps of teammate Brandon Nimmo. Much like Alonso, Nimmo switched representation to Boras in the final offseason before he hit the open market. Any contract discussions with the Mets that offseason didn’t result in an extension, leaving Nimmo to hit free agency that winter. Upon hitting the open market, he re-upped with the Mets on an eight-year, $162MM contract.
Of course, it’s worth noting that Nimmo went through that process at a time when the Mets were a staunchly win-now team that ultimately won 101 games during his 2022 walk season. While the club has made clear that they plan for Alonso to be part of the Opening Day roster next season and that they hope to compete in 2024, the club’s focus appears to be on building for the future and it would hardly be a shock if Alonso were to find himself traded midseason if the Mets were to fall out of the race once again in 2024. Whether as a trade candidate or an extension candidate, Alonso is an attractive target as one of the game’s premiere power hitters. His 192 home runs lead the majors since he made his debut back in 2019, while only Aaron Judge, Olson, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani have crushed more dingers over the past three seasons than Alonso’s 123.
More from around the National League…
- While the Dodgers made waves earlier today by agreeing to a record-setting $700MM deal with Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates that landing the winter’s biggest fish won’t stop the club from pursuing other marquee free agents. Heyman indicates that even after factoring in Ohtani’s massive deal, the Dodgers still have both the desire and the necessary payroll capacity to sign NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto, 25, is moving stateside on the heels of three consecutive sub-2.00 ERA campaigns in Japan. A report earlier this week suggested that the Dodgers were among seven teams considered to be finalists for the right-hander’s services, and Heyman even suggests that LA could be ahead except the Mets and Yankees in their pursuit of Yamamoto. The young righty is an obvious fit for a Dodgers roster with an otherworldly lineup but little certainty in the rotation. Sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller is joined by Walker Buehler as the only starters locked into the club’s Opening Day rotation as things stand, though even Buehler will be pitching for the first time since early 2022 after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career.
- The Brewers are continuing to finalize their coaching staff under new manager Pat Murphy, who was promoted from his role as bench coach following the departure of longtime manager Craig Counsell earlier this offseason. To that end, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the club is moving assistant director of player development Charlie Greene from the front office to the big league coaching staff, where he’ll take over as Milwaukee’s bullpen coach. Greene will take over for Jim Henderson, who in turn is becoming the club’s assistant pitching coach.
Yankees Notes: Soto, Judge, Yamamoto, Bullpen
On the heels of last night’s blockbuster, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters this afternoon. He discussed a handful of topics on where the front office will proceed.
Cashman acknowledged the team has yet to have any conversations with Juan Soto’s camp regarding a long-term extension (relayed by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). The three-time All-Star is one year from free agency, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $33MM salary. It seems all but a lock that Soto will choose to test free agency. He declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals during the summer of 2022 and certainly wouldn’t sign for less than that now that he’s within a year of the open market.
The GM conceded “it’s a possible short term situation” with Soto. That didn’t deter the Yankees from making their all-in push to install him into the 2024 lineup alongside Aaron Judge. Between Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham, they’ve added a trio of outfielders to better balance a lineup that struggled mightily when Judge was on the injured list. The 2022 AL MVP was out between June 4 and July 28 after injuring his right big toe in a collision with the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium.
Judge played regularly from the time of his reinstatement through season’s end. While there wasn’t much doubt about his health status, Cashman confirmed today that the toe problem is fully behind him (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
The Soto return was pitching heavy. Michael King headlined a group that also included Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Double-A prospect Drew Thorpe. After parting with so much of their rotation depth to push that trade over the finish line, Cashman said the team will look to backfill on the pitching staff (passed along by The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty).
There’s no bigger pitching target than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The NPB ace is scheduled to meet with MLB teams next week. The Yankees are among a handful of teams that are serious suitors for the 25-year-old righty. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Yamamoto is the club’s priority at this point.
It seems the rotation is taking a bigger precedence than the bullpen. The Athletic reported last night that the Yankees were showing interest in free agent reliever Jordan Hicks. Feinsand downplays the club’s desire for a notable bullpen strike, however. While he confirms the Yankees like Hicks, he indicates a notable relief acquisition is more of a fallback possibility if Yamamoto signs elsewhere.