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Jose Urquidy Being Evaluated For Elbow Injury; Astros Remain In Market For Starting Pitching

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Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy pulled himself from a minor league game after 43 pitches due to pain in his right elbow, manager Joe Espada told reporters (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). He’d been scheduled to throw around 60 pitches.

It’s a concerning development for a Houston club that will see Justin Verlander open the season on the injured list and knows it’ll be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the early portion of the 2024 campaign as well. Prior to this news, it looked as though Urquidy would join Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the Astros’ Opening Day rotation. That’s no sure thing now.

Urquidy, 28, missed more than three months of the 2023 campaign with a shoulder injury, which only makes further arm troubles all the more ominous. He pitched to a career-worst 5.29 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound, with the second-lowest strikeout rate (16.4%) and the highest walk rate (9.1%) he’s turned in during any big league season.

Prior to last year’s rough showing, Urquidy was a steady and arguably underrated member of the Houston staff. From 2019-22, he pitched 342 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but an excellent 5.2% walk rate. Durability has been an issue for the right-hander, but he’s been effective more often than not when he’s taken the ball.

The mounting number of injuries on the Houston staff could potentially spur the team to action. General manager Dana Brown said not even two weeks ago that he wasn’t in the market for more starting pitching … only to suggest the opposite to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle this week. Rome, citing a multiple anonymous sources, reported that the ’Stros are indeed still in the market for arms. Brown spoke in generalities when asked about Blake Snell, telling Rome: “As long as Snell is on the market, we check in to ask what is the latest. Nothing new as of now.”

It’s telling that those comments came even before today’s potential injury to Urquidy. Presumably, if there’s real concern that Urquidy might miss some time, that would only hasten the team’s desire to add to the rotation, whether in the form of Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger or any of the other arms the free agent or trade market may have to offer. Crane did act aggressively and decisively when the Astros found out they’d lost setup man Kendall Graveman for the season, surprising many onlookers by signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM contract.

Snell, of course, would be the costliest free agent on the market in terms of financial outlay and future considerations. Because he rejected a qualifying offer, Snell would cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick and $500K of space from next year’s international free agent bonus pool. Since they already punted a second-round pick to sign Hader, however, that’d “only” be a third-round pick.

Since the Astros are already at a projected $255.7MM of luxury obligations (per RosterResource), signing Snell would push that figure past the $257MM second-tier threshold and past the third-tier $277MM threshold. That $277MM line is of particular note, as crossing that barrier drops a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 places.

Any additional players signed by the Astros would be subject to penalty under the luxury tax, although because Houston didn’t pay the tax last year, they’re considered a first-time offender. That subjects them to much lesser fees than third-time offenders like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc. Houston would owe a 20% tax on the next $1.3MM spent, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM. That tax would be based on the annual value of the contract.

A $30MM AAV on a Snell deal, for instance, would cost the Astros around $12.1MM in luxury taxes. That’s a steep price, but it’s nowhere near the 110% tax rate the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and others would face. Whether that makes it palatable enough for owner Jim Crane to further add to what’s already a franchise-record payroll by a wide margin remains to be seen.

Braves Sign Adam Duvall

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The Braves announced Thursday that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year, $3MM contract. The CAA client will return for a third stint with Atlanta. The Braves’ 40-man roster had multiple open spots, so a corresponding move was not necessary.

Less than one month after Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the team was not planning to platoon newly acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic in left field, Anthopoulos now tells the Braves beat the opposite: the righty-hitting Duvall will pair with the left-handed Kelenic in left field (X link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution).

The change in plans is likely attributable to multiple factors, including a presumable drop in Duvall’s asking price and also Kelenic’s struggles thus far in spring training. The once-ballyhooed prospect, whom the Braves effectively paid around $26MM to acquire (between eating bad contracts and the associated luxury-tax hits), is off to a 2-for-30 start with four walks and seven punchouts this spring. Kelenic has struggled against lefties throughout his still-young career, evidenced by a .189/.255/.311 slash (61 wRC+) and 29.9% strikeout rate against them.

Duvall, 35, has played with five teams in his career but spent more time with Atlanta than any other club. In parts of five prior seasons, he’s batted .224/.285/.464 — numbers that generally align with his career marks. He’s a strikeout-prone slugger whose paltry walk rates lead to low batting averages and poor OBP marks, but Duvall offsets those flaws with plus power and typically plus defensive grades in the outfield corners. Though he’ll be in a platoon role in this latest Braves stint, he has roughly even splits in his career: .232/.301/.469 (101 wRC+) versus left-handed pitching, .232/.287/.473 (97 wRC+) against right-handers.

Duvall spent the 2023 season with the Red Sox and was the game’s hottest hitter for the first ten days of the season before fracturing his wrist on a diving attempt in the outfield. He missed exactly two months and returned to post .223/.273/.474 slash that’s right in line with his career marks. Duvall swatted 21 homers in just 353 plate appearances with Boston — the best power output of his career on a rate basis — but also fanned in more than 31% of his plate appearances for a third consecutive season.

The Sox surprised many onlookers when signing Duvall to serve as their primary center fielder, and defensive metrics were down on his performance there. It’s reasonable to expect a bounceback in a less-demanding and more familiar left field setting, where Duvall has logged more than 68% of his career innings.

Despite the modest price tag, Duvall was relatively popular in terms of the number of teams showing interest in him this winter. The Red Sox, Angels, Twins, Blue Jays, Padres and D-backs were just some of the clubs connected to him, though many went in other directions. Minnesota seemingly preferred a truer backup center fielder and acquired Manuel Margot. Arizona took a more prototypical lefty masher in Randal Grichuk. San Diego was connected to Duvall as recently as Monday, but it’s possible Duvall simply preferred to return to the organization he knows best. Given his history with the club and given that the Braves are one of the largest postseason favorites in the entire sport, it’d be hard to blame him.

Because the Braves are already well into the second tier of luxury-tax penalization and are a second-year offender of the CBT, they’ll be taxed at a 42% clip on Duvall’s signing. That comes to a modest $1.26MM slap on the wrist and brings the total cost of acquisition on Duvall to $4.26MM. Per RosterResource, the Braves are now up to just over $273MM in luxury obligations. If they cross the $277MM mark, they’ll be taxed at a 72.5% rate on subsequent additions and see their top pick in next year’s draft dropped by ten spots.

Trevor Stephan, Daniel Espino Require Surgery; Gavin Williams To Open Season On IL

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Guardians setup man Trevor Stephan will be undergoing a UCL reconstruction procedure (i.e. Tommy John surgery) within the next seven to 14 days, the team announced. Cleveland had shut Stephan down for three weeks in late February, but the discomfort in his arm persisted and subsequent testing has revealed that his ulnar collateral ligament is “not providing adequate stability.”

There’s further discouraging news on righty Daniel Espino — formerly one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 23-year-old righty, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a capsule tear that required shoulder surgery, underwent a second shoulder procedure yesterday — this one to repair new capsule damage as well as his rotator cuff. He’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season, though an exact timetable on his recovery isn’t yet known, per the team.

In addition to that pair of injuries, starting pitcher Gavin Williams will begin the season on the injured list, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’s been slowed by some discomfort in his right elbow this spring. A recent MRI came back clean, but he’ll go another four days before he resumes his throwing program and will need to build back up from there. By that point, he’ll be about two weeks removed from his last game action.

If that’s not enough bad news for Guards fans, Bell adds that lefty Sam Hentges is headed to have some swelling in his finger checked out. There’s no indication that’s a serious issue, but it’s yet another health situation for the team (and fans) to monitor for now.

The 28-year-old Stephan has proven to be one of the best Rule 5 selections by any team in recent memory. Taken out of the Yankees organization prior to the 2021 campaign, he’s logged 63 or more innings in each of his three seasons in Cleveland. Stephan owns six saves and 50 holds over that stretch, having climbed the ladder from low-leverage and mop-up settings to a prominent late-inning piece in each of the Guards’ past two seasons.

From 2022-23, Stephan tossed 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a stout 28% strikeout rate and better-than average walk and ground-ball rates of 7.8% and 44.6%, respectively. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) feel he’s been even better than his already sharp earned run average.

Stephan signed a four-year, $10MM contract extension covering the 2023-26 seasons last spring. That deal includes club options for both the 2027 and 2028 seasons as well. He’ll be paid $1.6MM this year as he rehabs throughout what would otherwise have been his first arbitration season. He’s guaranteed salaries of $2.3MM in 2025 and $3.5MM in 2026 before the team must decide between a $7.25MM club option of $1.25MM buyout for the 2027 season. If Cleveland picks that option up, they’ll have a $7.5MM option for the 2028 campaign as well. There’s no buyout on that second option.

With Stephan now ticketed for the 60-day injured list, the Guardians will lean on trade acquisition Scott Barlow as the primary setup man to All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. Righties Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin will also be in the mix for leverage spots, as will Hentges, assuming his finger injury doesn’t prove to be something serious. It’s possible the Guardians could look outside the organization for some additional arms to join the fray, though that’d likely come via waivers or perhaps a DFA trade late in camp. The free agent market for bullpen arms has been largely picked over, and Cleveland clearly didn’t have much money to spend this winter, making it seem unlikely that any additional salary will be added.

The news on Williams also carries immediate impact for Cleveland. While there’s no indication he’s dealing with a significant injury or facing a long-term absence, it seems he’ll miss at least a couple starts to begin the year. The 24-year-old ranked among MLB’s top pitching prospects prior to making his debut in 2023, and he lived up to that billing with 82 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during a sharp rookie campaign.

Williams’ 23.5% strikeout rate was narrowly above average, while his 10.7% walk rate is a bit inflated and could stand to improve a couple ticks. That shaky command prompted metrics like FIP (4.05) and SIERA (4.61) to take a more bearish outlook. Still, Williams throws hard, misses bats at average or better levels and limited hard contact rather nicely as well (88 mph average exit velocity, 38.6% hard-hit rate). There’s plenty to like about his outlook moving forward, and his presence alongside fellow sophomores Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen has the makings of the next wave of impressive homegrown talent from Cleveland’s unrivaled pitching development pipeline.

Espino, 23, once shined brightest among that incredible stock of young pitchers in the Cleveland system, but injuries have completely derailed his trajectory. Beyond what will now be a two-year absence from the mound due to multiple shoulder surgeries, Espino was also limited to just 18 innings in 2022. That year included a monthslong stay on the injured list due to tendinitis in his knee, as well as a second absence surrounding shoulder pain that has now clearly spiraled into an overwhelmingly problematic issue. Prior to the injury deluge, Espino dazzled scouts with a triple-digit fastball, plus or better slider and two other pitches — changeup, curveball — that projected to be at least average offerings.

On the one hand, Espino has youth on his side. On the other, consecutive missed seasons due to shoulder surgeries is a massive roadblock for any pitcher to overcome. His last procedure came with a timetable of 12 to 14 months. A similar or even lengthier timetable could push him deeper into the 2025 season. By that point, Espino will have thrown just 18 innings over a four-year period. The obvious hope is that he can put all these injuries behind him and eventually reach the majors, even if in a shorter relief role to help mitigate some workload concerns, but injury troubles of this magnitude are hard to overcome.

As for Hentges, he might not be a household name but he’s a credit to Cleveland’s pitching development himself. The 2014 fourth-rounder was hit hard as a starter in his debut campaign back in ’21 but has since emerged as one of the team’s top relievers. From 2022-23, he’s pitched 114 1/3 innings with an excellent 2.91 ERA, a very strong 27.4% strikeout rate, a better-than-average 7.9% walk rate and a sensational 60.1% grounder rate.

Padres Acquire Dylan Cease

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The Dylan Cease saga has come to an end. The Padres announced the acquisition of the right-hander from the White Sox for four players: prospects Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte and Samuel Zavala and big league reliever Steven Wilson.

Cease has been a trade candidate at least as far back as last summer’s deadline. While Chicago took him off the market at that time, first-year general manager Chris Getz made clear that he was willing to consider offers on virtually everyone on the roster going into the offseason. That made Cease one of the top names of the winter.

Chicago fielded offers early in the offseason before pulling back. The Sox indicated they wanted to wait for the free agent rotation market to play out before aggressively shopping the star righty. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery have lingered in free agency longer than anyone anticipated. With Opening Day two weeks away, Chicago seemed to find more urgency to make a move. They’d reportedly talked with the Yankees and Rangers within the past few days, but it is San Diego that gets the deal done.

It’s a massive strike for them just a week before they’ll open the regular season with a two-game set against the Dodgers in South Korea. For much of the offseason, the Padres have gone in the opposite direction. They faced significant payroll constraints that led to the free agent departures of Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha. Snell seems likely to follow.

The biggest loss, of course, came via trade. The Padres dealt Juan Soto to the Yankees before his final year of team control. That both offloaded his arbitration salary — which eventually checked in at $31MM — and brought back a number of controllable starting pitchers to compensate for the free agent departures. Michael King will step into the middle of the rotation. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are candidates for a back-end role. Thorpe came over in that trade and would have been in the rotation mix as well, but he’s now headed to Chicago before throwing a regular season pitch for the Padres.

Despite targeting upper level pitching in the Soto return, San Diego had a largely unproven rotation. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish were locked into the top two spots. King was ensured of a job after a strong finish last season with the Yankees, but he’d been a reliever for most of his major league career. He only moved to the starting staff for his final eight appearances beginning at the end of August. The rest of the starting pitching options in the organization have limited MLB experience of any kind.

Cease addresses that lack of experience. The former sixth-round pick has been a fixture of the Sox’s rotation since 2020. Aside from a brief virus-related absence in ’21, he hasn’t missed any time as a major leaguer. Cease leads the majors with 109 starts over the last four seasons.

At his best, Cease has paired that pristine durability with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He was dominant two seasons ago, turning in a 2.20 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate through 184 innings. He was runner-up behind Justin Verlander in that season’s Cy Young balloting and received some down-ballot MVP consideration.

The 28-year-old didn’t replicate that ace-caliber production last season. He had a pedestrian 4.58 ERA across 177 frames. While some level of regression from a 2.20 mark always seemed likely, his earned run average more than doubling wasn’t expected. That’s partially a reflection of a dramatic swing in Cease’s batted ball fortune. Opponents hit only .260 on balls in play against him in 2022; that spiked 70 points a season ago.

Beyond the ball-in-play results, Cease was a little less overpowering in ’23 than he’d been the previous season. His swinging strike rate dipped from 15% to 13.6%. He lost three percentage points off his strikeout rate, which fell to 27.3%. The average velocity on both his fastball (95.6 MPH) and slider (86.3 MPH) dropped a tick. Those are all still better than average marks but not quite as impressive as his 2022 metrics.

As is often the case, Cease’s true talent ERA very likely falls somewhere in the middle. Going back to the start of 2020, he carries a 3.58 mark in just shy of 600 innings. That has come in a tough home ballpark for pitchers in front of generally lackluster defenses.

At the same time, Cease has never had pristine control of his high-octane stuff. He has walked more than 10% of batters faced in three of the past four seasons, including his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He issued free passes at a 10.1% clip last year. That inconsistent command has kept him from blossoming into a true ace and is part of the reason he’s “only” 16th in innings pitched over the last four seasons despite topping MLB in starts.

It’s debatable but largely immaterial where Cease slots alongside Darvish and Musgrove among San Diego’s top three starters. King moves to the #4 spot, while the Friars now have only one Opening Day rotation job up for grabs. Brito, Vásquez, knuckleballer Matt Waldron and the out-of-options Pedro Avila could each be in the mix for the role.

It’s a renewed push for contention by a San Diego front office that has never shied away from dealing for star talent. Cease becomes the defining addition of the Padre offseason, largely enabled by his affordability. He and the White Sox had agreed to an $8MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’s under control via that process through the 2025 campaign. The Padres can plug him into the rotation for the next two years for what’ll likely be between $20MM and $25MM overall.

RosterResource calculates San Diego’s 2024 player payroll around $167MM, including Cease’s salary. The trade pushes their luxury tax number around $224MM, roughly $13MM below this year’s lowest threshold. The Friars have worked to stay under the tax line after exceeding it in each of the past three seasons. They still have questions about the overall roster depth — particularly in the outfield — but they have some flexibility to continue adding either this spring or at the deadline without pushing into CBT territory.

Landing a pitcher of Cease’s caliber and affordability required parting with a few fairly well-regarded young players. San Diego was never going to trade Ethan Salas or Jackson Merrill and managed to keep young pitchers Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling out of the deal. Thorpe, Zavala and Iriarte were all generally regarded in the next tier of Padres talents. Baseball America ranked all three between fifth and ninth in the San Diego system. The Athletic’s Keith Law had those players in the 6-9 range on his organizational prospect list.

As a key piece of the Soto return, Thorpe is probably the most well-known of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2022 out of Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Thorpe had a breakout showing in his first full minor league season. The 6’4″ right-hander worked to a 2.52 ERA in 23 starts between High-A and Double-A last year. He fanned more than a third of opposing hitters against a modest 7.1% walk rate.

Thorpe doesn’t light up radar guns with a fastball that sits in the low-90s. Evaluators credit him with a plus or better changeup and an above-average breaking ball, though. He has shown advanced strike-throwing acumen, although Law writes that his precise command (the ability to spot pitches where he wants them) isn’t as impressive as his control (hitting the strike zone consistently). Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel all placed Thorpe in the back half of the league’s Top 100 prospects this winter. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm who could impact the Sox as soon as this year.

Iriarte, a 6’2″ righty from Venezuela, could also be part of the major league pitching staff at some point in 2024. The 22-year-old worked 90 1/3 frames across 27 appearances between High-A and Double-A last season. He allowed 3.49 earned runs per nine behind a 33.2% strikeout percentage. He also walked almost 12% of opposing hitters, but there’s clear bat-missing potential.

Evaluators credit Iriarte with upper 90s velocity with a plus slider and a promising but inconsistent changeup. The chance for three above-average to plus offerings gives him significant upside, although evaluators are split on whether he’ll stick as a starting pitcher. He’ll need to refine his secondary stuff and continue to improve his control, but his athleticism gives him the opportunity to do so. FanGraphs slotted Iriarte in the back half of their Top 100 list. The Sox can take their time to afford him plenty of reps in the upper minors.

Zavala, 19, is a further away development flier. The lefty-hitting outfielder was one of the better prospects in the 2020-21 international signing period. He spent most of last season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. Zavala’s .267/.420/.451 batting line is impressive for a player his age, but prospect evaluators are divided on his long-term upside. Law suggests he’s unlikely to stick in center field, while most reports question his pure contact skills. Zavala took plenty of walks but also struck out at an alarming 27.2% clip in Low-A.

Wilson might be the fourth piece of the return, but he should step directly into the big league bullpen. The 29-year-old righty has been a quality reliever in each of the last two seasons. Wilson owns a 3.48 ERA across 106 career innings. He has fanned just over a quarter of opposing hitters against a 10.9% walk rate. Wilson leans heavily on a low-80s breaking ball and sits in the mid-90s with his fastball.

That profile has led to better strikeout and walk numbers versus right-handed batters, but Wilson has gotten decent results against hitters of either handedness. He could step into high-leverage work in a completely open Sox bullpen. The Santa Clara product has exactly two years of service. Chicago controls him through at least 2027, depending on whether they option him to the minors at any point. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason.

The White Sox had named Cease their Opening Day starter. That’s no longer on the table as they commit even further to a retool. KBO returnee Erick Fedde is perhaps the top pitcher in what might be the weakest rotation in the American League. Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Jared Shuster are among the other possibilities. Thorpe figures to open the season in Triple-A but could pitch his way into the mix before long.

Chicago could go outside the organization to try to backfill some of their lost innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last night that the Sox had interest in Michael Lorenzen as a potential Cease replacement. Zack Greinke, Jake Odorizzi and old friend Johnny Cueto also remain unsigned.

Iriarte and Wilson are each on the 40-man roster. Thorpe and Zavala won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until the 2025-26 offseason, although Thorpe seems likely to pitch his way onto the MLB roster well before that point. Chicago designated outfielder Peyton Burdick for assignment to open the necessary 40-man spot.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were finalizing a trade for Cease. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed a Cease agreement was in place. Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report the White Sox were acquiring Thorpe and Iriarte. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Wilson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first with Zavala being in the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Devin Williams To Miss Roughly Three Months With Back Fractures

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Brewers star closer Devin Williams has been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). He’ll be shut down entirely for six weeks and is expected to be out of MLB action for around three months.

It’s a massive hit to the Milwaukee bullpen two weeks before Opening Day. Williams made two appearances this spring before pausing his work as he battled back soreness. He visited a spine specialist this afternoon. That examination revealed the fractures. Fortunately, Passan indicates that Williams is expected to make a full recovery.

That the injury shouldn’t affect Williams throughout his career is a positive, but there’s no question it’s a significant loss for the first half of the upcoming season. The two-time All-Star is among the best relievers in baseball. He has turned in a sub-2.00 ERA in consecutive years, including a sparkling 1.53 mark over 58 2/3 frames last season. Williams shut down 36 games in 40 attempts in his first full campaign as a closer. He rode his patented wiffle ball changeup, the so-called Airbender, to a massive 37.7% strikeout percentage. Williams was named the National League’s Reliever of the Year for the second time in his career.

As is the case with virtually every Milwaukee player approaching free agency, Williams found himself in trade rumors during the offseason. That speculation returned after they dealt Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, but Milwaukee didn’t find a deal to their liking. They elected to keep him at the back of the bullpen instead. Williams should eventually return to the ninth inning, but he’ll now begin the season on the 60-day injured list and will be out of action at least into the middle of June.

It’s unclear if Milwaukee skipper Pat Murphy will go with a committee approach to the ninth inning or pick a defined closer while Williams is on the shelf. If they go the latter route, any of Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe or Trevor Megill could be candidates. Payamps was somewhat quietly one of the more productive relievers in the NL last season. The secondary piece acquired in the William Contreras/Sean Murphy three-team trade, Payamps turned in a 2.55 ERA with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers across 70 1/3 innings.

Uribe has more traditional closing stuff. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averaged a blistering 99.4 MPH on his sinker as a rookie. Uribe turned in a 1.76 ERA behind a 53% grounder percentage and a 30.7% strikeout rate over his first 30 2/3 MLB innings. It’s eye-popping stuff, but his command could keep him out of the ninth inning. Uribe walked more than 15% of opponents last season.

Megill, acquired in a minor trade with the Twins last April, struck out nearly 36% of batters faced as a Brewer. He worked to a 3.31 ERA through 32 2/3 frames. Megill averaged 99.1 MPH on his heater, which he paired with a wipeout curveball in the mid-80s. Having that trio of power arms means Murphy should still have a good relief group with which to work, yet there’s no one who can be expected to replicate the production that Williams posts on an annual basis.

Milwaukee controls Williams via arbitration through the 2025 season. He’s making $7MM this season. Milwaukee has a $10MM option for next year but could retain him in arbitration even if they opt for a $250K buyout instead of the option value. If Williams progresses as expected, he should be back on the mound before the deadline. There’s a chance he’d be a midseason trade candidate if the Brewers unexpectedly fall out of contention in the NL Central, but the offers they receive could be complicated by other teams’ trepidation about the injury.

Padres, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease Trade

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Trade talk surrounding White Sox righty Dylan Cease has apparently rekindled in full. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Padres and White Sox have recently discussed the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, which aligns with yesterday’s report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, wherein he noted that the White Sox have had several members of their front office present to get first-hand looks at the Padres in recent days. The Friars join the Yankees and Rangers as clubs prominently linked to Cease in the second act of his offseason trade candidacy.

By now, the merits and risks regarding a trade for Cease have been well documented. He’s an affordable — $8MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2025 — 28-year-old righty with two years of team control who demonstrated his upside with a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 but struggled through a down year in 2023, when he notched a 4.58 ERA with slightly diminished (but still far better than average) strikeout and velocity numbers. Cease has worse command than one would prefer from a top starting pitcher, which has long been an issue, but he and other Sox hurlers have also been harmed by perennially poor defensive alignments behind them.

Last year’s pedestrian ERA notwithstanding, Cease is a durable power pitcher whom other organizations undoubtedly view as a playoff-caliber starter — if not a true No. 1 then at least a strong No. 2-3 option in a postseason rotation. No pitcher in baseball has started more games than Cease’s 109 dating back to 2020 — his first full season at the MLB level. Even if one were to assume that Cease’s 2022 season was an outlier, career-best campaign while his 2023 ERA was somewhat fluky in nature, a look at his entire body of work over the past three seasons reveals strong overall numbers: 526 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a huge 29.8% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.1% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics tend to support the idea that Cease’s talent level lands somewhere in the mid-  to upper-3.00s.

In terms of pure team fit, the Padres are as strong a match as one could conjure up. The Friars’ offseason has been something of a financially motivated reset, but the team isn’t about to enter a full-scale rebuild with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove all signed long-term. The Padres only have three clear starters at the moment in Musgrove, Darvish and trade acquisition Michael King, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto swap.

Adding Cease to the rotation and cementing the top four spots would create a fifth-starter battle including Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and others. The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff. (Some of those names, of course, could be included in a theoretical trade package with the White Sox.)

The affordable nature of Cease’s contract surely appeals to a San Diego club that has slashed the present-day cost of its roster by nearly $100MM. That’s doubly true in that Cease’s $8MM salary wouldn’t put the Padres anywhere particularly close to the $237MM luxury-tax threshold they’re clearly hoping to avoid. RosterResource projects San Diego at just over $216MM in luxury obligations. Cease would be a net $7.26MM in luxury considerations, bringing the team to around $223.5MM. That’d still leave some room if president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to add Cease and pursue one more free agent outfielder, as has been rumored; the Padres were connected to Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and old friend Tommy Pham earlier this week.

While Preller’s years of frenetic activity on the trade market lead to constant churn in the farm system, the Padres remain strong in that regard. Each of MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball America rank the Padres among the sport’s top six farm systems, due largely to strong drafting and international scouting, in addition to replenishing some of their lost depth in the trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to New York. Top prospect Jackson Merrill looks on track to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder and is surely all but untouchable alongside ballyhooed catcher Ethan Salas. But the Friars have as many as six other prospects who’ve drawn top-100 fanfare, in addition to a slew of near-MLB-ready talent that could entice the ChiSox to part with Cease.

Lucas Giolito Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure

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March 13: The Red Sox announced this morning that Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow. That comes with a shorter recovery timetable than a full Tommy John surgery and will give the right-hander a chance to pitch the entire 2025 season if things go smoothly in his rehab. He’ll likely still miss the entire 2024 campaign, however.

March 11: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito will undergo surgery on his right elbow tomorrow afternoon, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe and Sean McAdam of MassLive. It’s still unknown whether he will require a full Tommy John surgery or a brace procedure, but he’s ticketed for an extended absence either way.

It was reported last week that Giolito has a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm as well as a strain of his flexor tendon. A decision had not yet been made on the path forward, with the club sending Giolito for a second opinion. After gathering further information, it now seems that it will be necessary for him to go under the knife. Giolito previously underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect back in 2012.

It seems that some of the details of the procedure will be worked out on the operating table, as the medical team will assess the level of damage in his elbow once they get in there and then decide on the best path forward. Either way, Giolito seems slated to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. A brace procedure is a relatively new alternative to Tommy John that can come with shorter recovery times, but even those rehab windows are in the ballpark of a year.

It’s a devastating blow for both Giolito and the Red Sox. The righty posted excellent results from 2019 to 2021 with the White Sox, with a 3.47 earned run average in that time. He struggled in 2022, with his ERA bumping to 4.90, but seemed to be bouncing back in the first half of last year.

He had a 3.79 ERA through 21 starts as he approached the open market and seemed to be trending towards being one of the top free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. He was traded to the Angels but then saw his performance dip again. He had a 6.89 ERA in six starts for the Halos as that club fell out of contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians put in a claim but then Giolito had a 7.04 ERA in six starts for that club.

As recently as last summer, he seemed to be trending towards a nine-figure mega deal but instead limped into free agency with little momentum behind him. He settled for a two-year, “prove it” deal with the Red Sox, netting a guarantee of $38.5MM. He also secured an opt-out in that deal so that he could return to free agency if he posted better results in 2024.

That now won’t happen and Giolito will stay on Boston’s books through 2025. The club came into this winter looking to bolster their rotation but ended up being fairly inactive in that department. They did sign Giolito but also flipped Chris Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, making it a sort of neutral set of moves for the rotation, depending on how the Sale/Giolito swapped was viewed.

With Giolito now set for an extended absence, the rotation is now the same as last year but without Sale. It’s possible that steps forward from their incumbent options of Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford or Garrett Whitlock could make that up somewhat, but it’s nonetheless unideal for the club’s big offseason splash to miss the entire season.

The club has been operating with a bit less spending capacity than in the past. Club president Sam Kennedy said last month that new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has payroll “parameters” that he is operating under. RosterResource pegs this year’s payroll at $180MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows the club has been as high as $236MM in the past. It appears the club doesn’t look favorably on its chances of competing in a competitive American League East and isn’t willing to spend gobs of money to chance a chance at contention that may be narrow.

Free agency still features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Sox have been frequently connected to the latter but without anything seeming close, at least partially due to those apparent budgetary concerns. If the club has interest in a more affordable option for eating some innings, guys like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard remain unsigned.

For Giolito, he will be focused on his rehab for the foreseeable future. He will turn 30 years old in July and will turn 31 before his deal with the Sox expires and he returns to the open market after 2025.

Rangers, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease

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Significant trades halfway through Spring Training are rare, yet speculation about White Sox’s staff ace Dylan Cease hasn’t gone away. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Yankees put a new trade proposal on the table for Chicago’s expected Opening Day starter. Meanwhile, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers are still considering which players they might need to relinquish to try to pry Cease from the Sox.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Sox and Rangers have had recent conversations regarding Cease. Rosenthal indicates that Chicago seems to be “getting more serious” about dealing the hard-throwing righty this spring.

Manager Pedro Grifol demurred this evening when asked whether he still expected Cease to start for the Sox on Opening Day. “I don’t know. I mean, how am I supposed to know that,” he asked rhetorically (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). “I don’t know what’s going to happen out there. I don’t know where other teams are, what their urgency is. … I leave that to our major league scouts, our general manager, the front office.”

While the Yankees’ renewed interest in Cease is tied to Gerrit Cole’s MRI, Texas hasn’t dealt with any recent injuries to their rotation. Yet they went into camp knowing that three of their top starters — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle — were going to begin the year on the shelf. Mahle and deGrom seem likely to be out past the All-Star Break as they work back from last year’s respective Tommy John procedures. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and is expected to be sidelined into June.

That puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the pitching staff to hold the fort for the season’s first couple months. The Rangers have a front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford is the favorite for the #5 job to open the season. Texas optioned Cole Winn over the weekend, taking him out of the mix for an Opening Day job. Owen White and Zak Kent are on the 40-man roster but have a combined two MLB appearances between them (both by White). José Ureña and Adrian Sampson are in camp on non-roster deals but should be behind Bradford on the depth chart.

If healthy, that’s still a solid front four. Yet there’s a fair amount of injury risk with much of that group. Eovaldi has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career. Gray has been on the injured list four times in his two seasons as a Ranger. Heaney was healthy last season but lost a good chunk of 2022 to shoulder problems. Even Dunning has a Tommy John surgery in his history, although he has been durable and quite effective for the last three seasons.

Even if that entire group stays healthy, Texas would benefit from another arm who can push Bradford to a long relief role. The southpaw turned in a 5.30 ERA in his first 56 big league frames a year ago. He has excellent control but struggled with home runs last season. That’s likely to be a recurring concern as a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged 90.4 MPH.

To his credit, the Baylor product has pitched well this spring. Bradford has rattled off 11 innings of three-run ball, fanning nine against a pair of walks. Still, that’s unlikely to deter the front office from considering ways to upgrade the staff as they look to defend the first World Series in franchise history.

The Sox’s asking price on Cease has remained high, which is why he’s still in Chicago two weeks from Opening Day. The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up is coming off a down year, turning in a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. With mid-90s velocity and a strikeout rate that sat above 27% last season, he’s a clear rebound candidate. Cease is under arbitration control for two more years and will make $8MM in 2024. That affordability makes him an attractive alternative to top remaining free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers have had a fairly quiet offseason, thanks in part to trepidation about the long-term viability of their TV deal with Bally Sports.

Report: Yankees Make New Offer For Dylan Cease

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The Yankees are still in the process of gathering information on Gerrit Cole’s elbow after he reported difficulty recovering between starts and underwent an MRI on Monday. In the meantime, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that they’ve made a new offer to the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease. Prior reporting on the talks between the two teams have indicated that the Yankees have refused to include outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any package for Cease, and Nightengale notes that Jones once again is not included in the new offer.

Trade talk surrounding Cease has died down in the latter stages of the offseason. White Sox GM Chris Getz has steadfastly held his asking price in negotiations throughout the offseason — an ask that other teams have deemed exorbitant.

If the Yankees indeed go outside the organization to bolster their staff, there’s some sense to preferring a trade to, say, signing a free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Snell and Montgomery would come with huge annual salaries that are magnified by the 110% luxury tax the Yankees would pay for any additions at this point, given the current state of their payroll. Snell, in particular, would cost the Yankees their second-highest draft pick and $1MM of space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. Cease has also been in camp with the White Sox, pitching in spring training games and building up for the season. Snell and Montgomery are surely working out on their own in preparation for the season, but that’s not necessarily the same as working in game settings. Cease wouldn’t come with any questions about whether he’d be ready for Opening Day, whereas a free-agent pickup at this point in the offseason calendar very much could.

Cease, the 2022 American League Cy Young runner-up, is earning $8MM this season and is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He’s coming off a down year, having posted a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 frames with somewhat diminished averaged fastball velocity (96.9 mph in ’22, 95.8 mph in ’23). But Cease maintained strong strikeout numbers, missed bats at a plus level and was to some extent hampered by a .330 average on balls in play that was 46 points higher than his career mark entering the season. Other teams clearly view him as a playoff-caliber starter — evidenced by the widespread demand for him this winter — and the White Sox don’t seem likely to lower their asking price substantially, knowing they can also extract a substantial trade return for Cease this summer as long as he remains healthy.

Holding Cease with an eye toward the deadline presents the Sox with an obvious risk, as pitcher attrition in the sport is an inevitability. That’s underscored by the very reason the Yankees have apparently reengaged the White Sox on Cease. Cole and Cease have been the game’s two most durable starters for the past four years. Since 2020 (Cease’s first full season in MLB), Cease leads all big league pitchers with 109 starts. Cole’s 108 rank second, tying him with Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios. Even the most durable pitchers eventually break down, and if Cease incurs any kind of notable injury in the season’s first half, holding him will go down as a major setback in the White Sox’ rebuilding efforts.

Risk notwithstanding, the Sox have held firm in their asking price and seem prepared to wait until July if that price is not met. With regard to the Yankees, that includes Jones, a towering 6’6″ outfielder who’s drawn comparisons to Aaron Judge due to his physical size and his immense raw power. It’s unfair to expect any hitter to develop to Judge’s level, but the pure physical traits are similar. Baseball America credits Jones with plus power (60 on the 20-80 scale), while FanGraphs gives him a plus-plus rating (70-grade) in that department. Jones, who hit .267/.336/.444 between High-A and Double-A in his age-22 season last year, currently ranks 15th among all prospects at FanGraphs, 33rd at Baseball Prospectus, 46th at BA, 56th at ESPN and 84th at MLB.com.

Even if the Yankees remain unwilling to include Jones in an offer for Cease, the farm system is stacked with top-100 talents and with quality names behind that high-end contingent. Each of outfielder Jasson Dominguez, outfielder Everson Pereira, catcher Austin Wells, righty Chase Hampton, righty Will Warren and shortstop Roderick Arias has drawn top-100 fanfare on multiple lists. The overall depth of the system is considered strong as well, ranking sixth at ESPN, seventh at The Athletic, ninth at Baseball America and 11th at MLB.com.

The White Sox, who fired longtime baseball operations leaders Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last summer, have been working to reshape the organization since shaking up the top end of the front office. Getz flatly stated that he “didn’t like our team” at the beginning of the offseason. Since taking the GM reins, he’d traded relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, moved on from shortstop Tim Anderson and made a series of acquisitions to improve the club’s pitching depth and defense — two longstanding issues. Trading Cease would be his most significant transaction to date.

Gerrit Cole Undergoing MRI On Right Elbow

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Yankees ace and reigning American League Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is headed for an MRI on his right elbow, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday morning (X link via Newsday’s David Lennon). Cole hasn’t been recovering as well between throwing sessions and will get his elbow checked out to determine if there’s an injury at play. The imaging will take place today.

Cole will receive multiple opinions on the status of his elbow, and the Yankees don’t expect to announce a prognosis today or even tomorrow, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Boone didn’t provide additional details. The organization’s level of concern regarding a potential serious injury isn’t clear, though imaging performed on any pitcher’s elbow is an ominous sign. That’s particularly true in a Yankees rotation that can ill afford to lose its ace. Granted, no team is built to withstand the loss of a reigning Cy Young winner, but the rotation behind Cole is filled with a series of question marks.

The first season of Carlos Rodon’s six-year, $162MM contract with the Yankees played out in disastrous fashion. After a dominant two-year run between the White Sox and Giants from 2021-22, Rodon was limited by injuries in 2023, logging just 14 starts (64 1/3 innings) and yielding a grisly 6.85 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that both trended heavily in the wrong direction (22.4% and 9.8%, respectively — down from 33.9% and 7.1% in the two seasons prior).

A strained left rotator cuff limited southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. to a near-identical slate of 63 1/3 frames in 2023. He’s broken out with a pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns over the two preceding seasons. While Cortes maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, he became even more fly-ball heavy, inducing grounders at a minuscule 26% clip. He saw his HR/9 mark spike from 0.91 the year prior to 1.56 in 2023. Cortes didn’t see a disproportionate number of his fly-balls leave the yard (just 11%), but the sheer volume of balls in the air worked against him both at home (1.45 HR/9) and on the road (1.73 HR/9).

The Yankees picked up Marcus Stroman on a two-year, $37MM contract this offseason to help solidify the rotation, but he’s coming off an injury-marred season of his own. Stroman was in the NL Cy Young conversation with a strong first few months of the ’23 season before being rocked in July and placed on the injured list due to a hip injury. While rehabbing, he was diagnosed with fractures in his rib cartilage that further slowed his return to the mound. He made it back for four appearances late in the season but didn’t pitch particularly well. After carrying a 2.88 ERA through his first 20 starts, Stroman pitched just 18 more innings on the season and was lit up for 26 runs (22 earned) in that time.

Right-hander Clarke Schmidt finished second on the team with 32 starts and 159 innings pitched, though he turned in back-of-the-rotation results due in large part to his own susceptibility to home runs. Schmidt looks like he can at least be an innings eater this season, but he’s yet to have the same type of MLB success that any of his rotationmates has enjoyed in the past. There’s surely hope within the organization that the former top prospect can take a step forward, but his ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be even more pivotal if it’s determined that Cole has any type of notable injury.

The depth options behind that top quintet are shakier still. Veteran Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason and seems ticketed for a swingman role, but he could start games if Cole requires any kind of absence. Weaver pitched well in three starts for the Yanks late last season but had a collective 6.40 ERA between Cincinnati, Seattle and New York — his third time in the past four seasons recording an ERA north of 6.00.

Down on the farm, the Yankees have righties Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez on the 40-man roster. Gil has the most big league experience, and impressive as he was through six starts in 2021, he’s pitched just 29 2/3 total innings over the past two years owing to Tommy John surgery. Gomez pitched two MLB innings last year. Beeter has not reached the majors. Prospect Will Warren had a nice year between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 but isn’t yet on the 40-man roster. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, however. Fellow prospect Chase Hampton and southpaw Tanner Tully were also NRIs this spring, but both have already been reassigned to minor league camp.

The mere possibility of an injury to Cole will rekindle speculation regarding free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom have been tied to the Yankees at various points in the offseason. The Yankees reportedly made a five-year offer to Snell before pivoting to sign Stroman. The two sides have remained in touch with Snell, in particular, but a match has looked like a long shot given the massive tax implications that come with signing either lefty. The Yankees are a third-time luxury offender and are already in the highest tier of luxury-tax penalization. That means in addition to any actual salary for the upcoming season, they’ll pay a 110% tax on any additional contract’s average annual value. A $25MM AAV would come with a $27.5MM tax hit. A $30MM would carry a $33MM hit — and so on.

Previously, with a fully healthy rotation, such a lavish expenditure seemed unlikely. If the Yankees are facing a prolonged absence for Cole, however, that type of massive financial commitment could become far more plausible. Snell has reportedly been amenable to short-term, opt-out laden contracts with high annual salaries, while it seems Montgomery has been more focused on a longer-term contract. At this point of spring, however, it’s also worth wondering just how ready either free agent would be for Opening Day. A return to the trade market shouldn’t be discounted as a possibility, though the asking price on arms like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo and others has been staggeringly high throughout the offseason (hance the lack of trade for either hurler).

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