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Ohtani’s Former Interpreter Charged With Bank Fraud Due To Theft Of Over $16MM

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April 12: Mizuhara surrendered to federal authorities this morning, per Alden González of ESPN. González adds that Mizuhara is scheduled to appear in court at 1:00 p.m. Pacific, or 3:00 p.m. Central, with the expected outcome of being let out on bond at some point.

April 11: U.S. attorney Martin Estrada announced today that Shohei Ohtani’s former interpreter Ippei Mizuhara has been charged with bank fraud to finance a “voracious appetite for illegal sports betting,” per Sam Blum of The Athletic. Mizuhara is alleged to have transferred more than $16MM from Ohtani’s account to an illegal sports book, per Alden González of ESPN. The full 37-page complaint against Mizuhara was relayed by Meghann Cuniff of The Washington Post.

Per Blum, Estrada says the account was set up by Mizuhara in 2018 and he began illegal gambling in 2021. “The bets do not appear to have been made on the sport of baseball,” Estrada says. “At this point Mr. Ohtani is considered a victim in this case,” Estrada added, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. “Mr. Mizuhara lied to the bank to access the account … lied to them about being Mr. Ohtani,” Estrada also said, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. When Mizuhara won a bet, the winnings would go into his own account and not Ohtani’s, per Blum. Estrada says investigators have viewed text messages from Mizuhara where he admitted to stealing from Ohtani, as relayed by Ardaya.

Last month, ESPN reported that more than $4.5MM had been wired from an account in Ohtani’s name to a sports gambling ring in California, where betting on sports is illegal. Mizuhara initially told ESPN that he was the one who racked up the debt but that Ohtani wired the money to help him pay it off. He later retracted that story and said Ohtani knew nothing about the gambling or the wire transfers. Ohtani later spoke on the matter, accusing Mizuhara of stealing money from him and lying about it, saying that he didn’t find out any of the details until the reporting had come out.

Both Mizuhara and Ohtani have said that Ohtani did not place any bets. Mizuhara has said that he did not bet on baseball and there’s not yet been any reporting to contradict that. As relayed by Jayson Stark of The Athletic, Mizuhara is alleged to have made about 19,000 wagers from December of 2021 to January of 2024, winning $142.27MM but losing $182.94MM for a net loss of $40.7MM.

It was reported last night that Mizuhara was in negotiations with federal authorities about pleading guilty. As part of that reporting, it was relayed that prosecutors had evidence Mizuhara disabled notifications that Ohtani would have received from his bank about transactions. The details from today go even farther, alleging that Mizuhara called the bank and impersonated Ohtani to access funds, per Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic. He answered security questions related to Ohtani’s biographical information to wire funds to a bookmaker, saying it was for a car loan. Per Shaikin, Ohtani’s agent repeatedly asked about the account but Mizuhara told him it was “private” and that Ohtani didn’t want anyone else to monitor it.

Shaikin relays a text message exchange between Mizuhara and a bookmaker where he admits to the theft: “Technically I did steal from him. it’s all over for me.” The maximum penalty for these charges is 30 years, per Shaikin. Mizuhara will appear in federal court in the coming days, per Blum. Ohtani has cooperated fully in the investigation, per Shaikin, including providing access to digital devices.

MLB issued a statement on the matter, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN and others: “We are aware of the charges filed by the U.S. Attorney’s Office against Mr. Mizuhara for bank fraud after a thorough federal investigation. According to that investigation, Shohei Ohtani is considered a victim of fraud and there is no evidence that he authorized betting with an illegal bookmaker. Further, the investigation did not find any betting on baseball by Mr. Mizuhara. Given the information disclosed today, and other information we have already collected, we will wait until resolution of the criminal proceeding to determine whether further investigation is warranted.” MLB’s Department of Investigations (DOI) opened an investigation into the matter last month after the initial reports came out.

Jeferson Quero To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold informed reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, that catching prospect Jeferson Quero will undergo surgery for a torn labrum. The recovery time is expected to be nine months, which obviously ends the season for the young backstop.

It was reported last week that Quero, 21, had been diagnosed with a subluxation in his right shoulder. The club didn’t make the next steps known at that time as they were planning to get a second opinion, but it now seems that a determination has been made with surgery required for Quero.

It’s an unfortunate development for the Brewers, both in the short term and in the long term. In the short term, it will put a notable dent in the club’s catching depth. Quero was added to the club”s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft and he was sent to Triple-A to start this year.

The Brewers have William Contreras and Gary Sánchez handling the catching duties at the big league level but Quero could have been in line for his big league debut this year if an injury arose to either of those two. Instead, Quero is the one who is injured, subtracting that option from the club this year. Eric Haase and Francisco Mejia are in Triple-A as non-roster depth options and one of those two will likely be the first up if another catcher is needed at the big league level.

In the long term, it’s an unfortunate loss of a development year for a notable young player in the system. Quero was a consensus top 50 prospect in the league coming into the year and is currently listed #35 in the league by Baseball America, #41 at FanGraphs, #33 at MLB Pipeline, #32 at ESPN and was all the way up at #12 on the list of Keith Law of The Athletic.

Long considered a strong defensive catcher, Quero hit well in the lower levels of the minors but without much power. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit .290/.357/.448 but with just 12 home runs in 488 plate appearances as he climbed to High-A. Last year, he was sent to Double-A and hit 16 homers in just 381 plate appearances while walking in 10% of his plate appearances and striking out just 17.8% of the time. He slashed .262/.339/.440 for a wRC+ of 107 despite being just 20 years old.

That strong showing vaulted him up prospect lists and seemed to have him in place to be pushing for a major league debut, perhaps as soon as this year. But after just one plate appearance at the Triple-A level this year, he suffered this injury and will have to sit out the remainder of the campaign. Quero is still young and will have plenty of time to get back on track but it’s obviously less than ideal for a young player to miss an entire year of reps as he is trying to grow as a player.

Since Quero was in the minor leagues when he suffered his injury, he’ll be placed on the minor league injured list. The Brewers could recall him and place him on the major league injured list if they want to open a 40-man roster spot, but doing so would start Quero’s service time clock.

Yoán Moncada To Miss Three To Six Months Due To Adductor Strain

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The White Sox announced that third baseman Yoán Moncada has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left adductor strain, with outfielder Oscar Colás recalled in a corresponding move. The club estimates that Moncada will miss three to six months.

Moncada, 29 in May, has been playing through this injury of late. Manager Pedro Grifol said yesterday, per Henry Palattella of MLB.com, that the issue has been nagging Moncada for three or four days but “He’s doing a really good job maintaining it.” That line of thinking blew up last night when Moncada collapsed while running out a groundout and had to be assisted off the field. In hindsight, it looks to have been a poor decision for him to have stayed on the field.

He has occasionally been an excellent player for the White Sox on both sides of the ball, providing strong defense at the hot corner and a quality bat at the plate. He showed that form as recently as the 2021 season when he hit 14 home runs and drew a walk in 13.6% of his plate appearances. His .263/.375/.412 batting line led to a wRC+ of 120 and his glovework earned three Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average considered him to be right at league par.

But injuries have largely gotten in the way since then. He has gone on the IL due to a right oblique strain, a right hamstring strain, a left hamstring strain and lingering lower back issues over 2022 and 2023 and now this left adductor strain has him on the injured list again. He’s played just 207 games since the end of 2021 and has hit .236/.292/.387  in that time for a wRC+ of 88.

He is in the final guaranteed year of the extension he signed with the club prior to 2020, a pact worth $70MM over five years, which would have made him a potential trade candidate on a rebuilding White Sox club this summer. His continued struggles would have tamped down his trade value, especially as he’s making $24MM this year, but this most recent injury may keep him on the IL past the deadline.

It’s now possible that Moncada has played his last game as a member of the White Sox. His contract has a $25MM option for 2025 but the Sox are almost certainly leaning towards the $5MM buyout at this point. If this injury pushes towards the longer end of that projected timeframe, he may not be able to make it back to the club by the end of the season.

In the short term, the outlook will become increasingly grim for the 2024 White Sox. They weren’t expected to compete this year after kicking off a rebuild last season, but it’s still not pretty to see them limp out to a 2-9 start. Some of their most established players have already hit the injured list, with Luis Robert Jr. facing a significant absence due to a Grade 2 hip flexor strain. Eloy Jiménez is on the IL due to an adductor strain and now Moncada joins him with the same ailment.

With Moncada out and the Sox not bringing up another infielder, it’s unclear how they plan to cover Moncada’s absence. They have been using three infielders to cover the two middle infield spots, with Braden Shewmake, Paul DeJong and Nicky Lopez in that rotation. Neither Shewmake nor DeJong have third base experience, but Lopez does. Lenyn Sosa is also on the roster and has experience at the three infield spots to the left of first base. Danny Mendick and Zach Remillard are in Triple-A, each in a non-roster capacity, though Moncada’s injury means he’s destined to be moved to the 60-day IL as part of a future transaction.

Red Sox Extend Ceddanne Rafaela

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April 10: The Red Sox have announced Rafaela’s extension. It’s an eight-year deal covering the 2024-31 seasons and also contains a previously unreported club option for a ninth season in 2032.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports the annual breakdown. Rafaela receives a $2MM signing bonus before earning salaries of $1MM in 2024, $1MM in 2025, $2MM in 2026, $3.5MM in 2027, $5.5MM in 2028, $7.5MM in 2029, $10.5MM in 2030 and $13MM in 2031. The club option is valued at $16MM and comes with a $4MM buyout.

April 8: The Red Sox have agreed to an extension with outfielder/second baseman Ceddanne Rafaela, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. It’s an eight-year, $50MM pact for the MVP Sports Group client, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (as relayed by Ian Browne of MLB.com). Rafaela is the second young, core player the team has locked up in the past few weeks; Boston also signed righty Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM deal in late March.

Rafaela, 23, has ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects entering each of the past two seasons. He made his big league debut in 2023 won the center field job in Boston with a strong spring showing in 2024. Through his first 124 big league plate appearances, Rafaela is a .239/.282/.389 hitter, though his minor league track record features far more promising numbers. Rafaela split the majority of the 2023 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A, where he logged a combined .302/.349/.520 slash with 20 homers, 31 doubles, three triples and 36 stolen bases (in 49 tries).

Listed at just 5’9″ and 152 pounds, Rafaela is small in stature but certainly not short on talent. Scouting reports laud him as a potential plus center fielder; Baseball America and MLB.com both call him a Gold Glove-caliber defender there, and The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote that Rafaela “has a chance to be the most valuable outfield defender in baseball” when ranking him 32nd among all MLB prospects this spring. Rafaela couples that defensive upside with plus speed and enough power to project for double-digit home runs in the big leagues, even if he’s more of a gap hitter than a true slugger.

While Rafaela struck out as a generally manageable 21% clip in the upper minors last season, he doesn’t have a particularly patient approach at the plate. He walked in just 5.4% of his plate appearances last season — his second straight minor league campaign with a walk rate around 5%. He’s drawn a free pass in just 4.8% of his big league plate appearances to date. Barring an evolution in his approach at the dish, Rafaela could post middling on-base percentages in the majors, but his defensive prowess, speed and power contributions should offset any potential OBP deficiency.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the pre-arbitration extensions for Rafalea and Bello mark a notable change in philosophy from a Red Sox club that has eschewed long-term deals for players who are relatively unproven in the big leagues. From 2012 through 2021, the Red Sox didn’t give out a single pre-arb extension. Their 2022 deal with righty Garrett Whitlock (four years, $18.75MM with two club options) was their first extension for a player prior to arbitration eligibility since Clay Buchholz way back in 2011.

The Sox haven’t shied away from extensions entirely, but long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello were far more expensive deals that came after those players had solidified themselves as big leaguers worth annual values of $20MM or more. Even the original Bogaerts deal, which was considered wildly club-friendly, was valued at six years and $120MM.

Perhaps the eventual loss of Bogaerts, coupled with high-profile departures of Mookie Betts, Jon Lester and others over the years, pushed Sox ownership to become more aggressive on early-career extensions. Maybe they’ve become increasingly dissatisfied with pricey free-agent deals that haven’t gone to plan (e.g. Trevor Story, David Price, Lucas Giolito). Or perhaps they simply looked at the rising price for young talent around the league and opted to become more proactive. Whatever the reason, they’re beginning to lock up some promising and affordable contributors to join Devers in comprising the long-term core.

Rafaela is just one of several extension candidates on the Red Sox, and with two deals now hammered out, it seems increasingly plausible others could yet follow. Most notably, first baseman Triston Casas and righty Tanner Houck have both spoken about their openness to extensions. Other pre-arb players who could feasibly be considered for long-term deals include left fielder Jarren Duran and righty Kutter Crawford.

Orioles To Promote Jackson Holliday

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MLB’s top prospect is set to make his debut. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (X link) that the O’s plan to call up Jackson Holliday. The team has yet to announce the move.

Holliday, the #1 overall pick in 2022, has destroyed minor league pitching. Despite being a high school draftee, he reaches the majors after just a year and a half in the minor leagues. The lefty-hitting infielder traversed four levels in his first full professional season. Holliday raked at a .323/.442/.499 clip over 581 plate appearances last season. He spent the majority of that time between High-A and Double-A but made it to the top minor league level late in the year.

That meteoric rise made it seem that the Oklahoma native had a real chance to break camp. That didn’t happen, as Baltimore reassigned Holliday back to Triple-A Norfolk late in Spring Training. The 20-year-old has opened the year on a tear as part of a loaded Tides lineup. He’d collected 13 hits (including four doubles and a pair of home runs) with 11 walks and eight strikeouts over his first nine games.

The son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday, Jackson owns an excellent .321/.452/.497 batting line through 154 minor league games. In addition to his stellar offensive track record, he offers plenty of defensive value as an above-average or better middle infielder. Holliday has primarily played shortstop in the minors, but the O’s used him mostly at second base in Spring Training. Seven of his nine starts in Norfolk this year have come at the keystone, where he seems likely to break into the big leagues.

Holliday’s well-rounded profile has made him an essentially unanimous choice as the game’s best minor league talent. It’s the third straight season in which the O’s entered the year with a player whom most evaluators consider the sport’s top prospect. Holliday will now join Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and plenty more talented young players at Camden Yards. He should pair with Henderson in what has the chance to be a franchise-defining middle infield.

Baltimore has relied on Jordan Westburg — himself a former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect — as their primary second baseman in the early going. The Mississippi State product has started slowly, hitting .195/.242/.355 through his first nine games. Westburg could slide over to third base if the O’s want to keep him in the everyday lineup. Ramón Urías and Tony Kemp, each of whom is on the roster as a multi-positional infielder, have struggled (albeit in exceedingly small samples). Westburg still has options remaining and could theoretically be sent back to Norfolk; the Orioles would need to designate Urías or Kemp for assignment to take either player off the big league club.

The O’s will likely reveal the corresponding move tomorrow. Holliday is not yet on the 40-man roster, but Baltimore has two vacancies. Unless they DFA a player who can’t be optioned, they’ll only need to clear active roster space. Whatever the transaction, Holliday will step into the lineup on an everyday basis.

The timing of the promotion surely isn’t coincidental. By calling Holliday up before the end of this week, the O’s are still in position to afford him a full year of service time. A player is credited with a full service year if they’re on an MLB roster or injured list for at least 172 days. Despite his two-week stint in the minors, Holliday will narrowly surpass that mark if he’s in the majors for good.

Promoting a top prospect just before the cutoff for a full service year would’ve been unlikely under the previous collective bargaining agreement. It was more common to see teams hold down their top talents until a bit past that date to secure an extra year of contractual control. The 2022-26 CBA introduced the Prospect Promotion Incentive to reduce the temptation for teams to keep their best young players in the minor leagues.

The PPI allows the Orioles to potentially win a draft choice if Holliday hits the ground running. A top position player prospect who accrues a full service year as a rookie (even if he’s not on the Opening Day roster) would earn his team an extra pick after the first round if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons. Holliday still meets that criteria. The O’s already earned an extra pick in the 2024 draft when Henderson won Rookie of the Year last season. If Holliday also pulls off that feat (or hits the more difficult MVP finish within his first three years), Baltimore would get another pick.

Had the Orioles waited beyond this week to promote Holliday, they’d have forfeited the chance at the PPI selection. Keeping him in Triple-A for another few days would’ve prevented him from reaching a full year of service through the traditional method, but a top prospect can also “earn” a full service year with a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting regardless of when he was promoted. If the O’s called Holliday up in May, for instance, he could have played his way to a full service year through his ROY finish without netting the organization the extra pick. That played out in 2022, when Rutschman finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting despite being called up in late May.

There’s an argument that the Orioles should simply have carried Holliday on the Opening Day roster. GM Mike Elias pointed to the youngster’s limited experience at second base and facing left-handed pitching as reasons for starting him in Norfolk. A combination of Holliday’s torrid start there and middling production from their MLB infielders led the front office to reverse course rather quickly.

If Holliday is in the majors for good, he’d first reach arbitration after the 2026 season. He’d be under team control through the ’29 campaign. Any future assignments to the minor leagues could push that trajectory back, but the O’s and their fans are surely hopeful that won’t be necessary now that Holliday is getting his first look at big league arms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Framber Valdez Scratched From Start Due To Elbow Soreness

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Astros left-hander Framber Valdez was scratched from today’s start due to soreness on the top of his left elbow after playing catch, with Chandler Rome of The Athletic among those to relay the news. While the club is in Arlington to face the Rangers, Valdez is in Houston to meet with team doctors, manager Joe Espada said.

At this point, it’s not yet clear how significant the injury is and Valdez has not yet been placed on the injured list, but it’s nonetheless a concerning development for a number of reasons. For one thing, there has been an unfortunate streak of pitching injuries of late, with stars like Shane Bieber and Eury Pérez recently requiring season-ending surgeries. Another big name, Spencer Strider, is still trying to discover the severity of his injury but there is concern that he could be set to go under the knife as well. Guys like Shohei Ohtani, Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcántara, Robbie Ray, Shane McClanahan and many more are each recovery from undergoing surgery last year.

The litany of injuries has led to a recent dispute between the MLBPA and the league, with the players concerned about the effects of the pitch clock while the league believes increased velocity and spin in the modern game are to blame. It’s still not clear that Valdez is going to be following those other pitchers to a significant surgery, with both Espada and general manager Dana Brown downplaying the concern, per Rome. But the fact that another star player is dealing with a possible elbow injury could only add to the ongoing tension.

Beyond the league-wide implications, it’s also a scary development for the Astros, as Valdez has emerged as a huge part of the club’s success in recent years. He has a 3.17 earned run average in 617 innings dating back to the start of the 2020 season. He struck out 23.8% of batters faced in that time, walking just 8% of them while keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 62.8% clip.

Subtracting that kind of quality performance would hurt any rotation but it would be especially noteworthy for the Astros at this moment in time. They are already without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia Jr., both of whom underwent elbow surgery last year and each is still working back to health. More recently, each of Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Shawn Dubin landed on the injured list due to injuries. Verlander is getting close to a return, having begun a rehab assignment over the weekend, but it’s clearly a less than ideal time for another domino to fall so they will obviously be hoping that Valdez isn’t seriously hurt. For now, Blair Henley has been called up to make a start while Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Ronel Blanco fill out the rest of the rotation.

For Valdez personally, he’s in his penultimate season of club control, currently slated for free agency after 2025. In the worst-case scenario where he requires Tommy John surgery and misses over a year, it would mean that he would be heading into the open market with hardly any innings pitched in the two seasons prior to becoming a free agent.

It’s worth reiterating that none of that has come to pass yet and Valdez is not even on the injured list. Still, even this small update of some soreness clearly has the potential to set off some ripple effects if it turns to be something serious, given the potential impacts on the Astros, on Valdez himself and the tumultuous situation between MLB and the MLBPA.

Luis Robert Jr. Facing Lengthy Absence

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The White Sox placed center fielder Luis Robert Jr. on the 10-day injured list over the weekend, and while the team didn’t provide a timetable for his return, Robert himself told the Sox beat that he’s been diagnosed with a Grade 2 hip flexor strain. Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Sox are currently anticipating an absence of six to eight weeks for the star outfielder. Some in the organization are more concerned and think Robert could miss three-plus months, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.

Robert exited Friday’s game against the Royals after he injured himself rounding first base on a double into the left field corner (video link). An exact timetable surely depends on how he progresses through the early stages of his rehab process. Robert endured a strain in this same right hip flexor back in 2021 as well, though that was a Grade 3 strain — more severe than his current injury. He wound up missing nearly three and a half months with that injury.

Robert, 26, made his first All-Star team and nabbed some down-ballot MVP votes in 2023 after he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 home runs and 20 steals in 145 games. He was out to a slower start to the 2024 season, batting .214/.241/.500 with a pair of big flies and an uncharacteristic 38% strikeout rate — albeit in a tiny sample of 39 plate appearances.

The Sox weren’t ever expected to compete this season, but a minimum month-and-a-half absence — and potentially a good bit longer on the shelf — for their best player is a critical blow to a largely torn-down roster. With Robert out for the foreseeable future, the Sox will likely turn to offseason trade acquisition Dominic Fletcher in center. He’s already started two games there since Robert first sustained his injury. Listed at just 5’6″, Fletcher is undersized relative to other big leaguers but nevertheless touted as a plus defender at all three outfield spots. Veterans Andrew Benintendi and Robbie Grossman are lined up for frequent corner work now, although the team surely hopes 25-year-old Oscar Colas can get back on track in Triple-A and reenter the right field mix after a dismal 2023 season.

There was some speculation regarding a potential trade of Robert over the winter, as the Sox are once again in a rebuilding mode — under new front office leadership for the first time in two decades. But general manager Chris Getz never seemed all that likely to trade Robert, who is one of the game’s most dynamic talents and is signed to a club-friendly contract. Robert is being paid $12.5MM this season and $15MM next year. The Sox hold a pair of club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons, both valued at $20MM with a $2MM buyout. In other words, he’s guaranteed $29.5MM over the next two seasons but could be controlled all the way through 2027 for a total of $67.5MM.

It’s an eminently reasonable price, though the mounting injury history for Robert is certainly a concern. He’s only reached 100 games in a big league season once (last year) and seems unlikely to get there in 2024 following this injury. Critics might argue that his trade value was at his peak this offseason, coming off a season of MVP-caliber production in a career-high 595 plate appearances. It’s overwhelmingly rare to see an established talent with this much team control traded, however, and Getz would’ve been well within his right to hold out for a return that rivals any of the largest trade packages we’ve seen in recent memory.

On the plus side for the Sox, Robert is so talented and still signed for so long that even if he misses multiple months, his trade value ought to remain considerable. And, of course, the team doesn’t need to trade him this summer or even next offseason or at the 2025 trade deadline. Depending on how the team’s current rebuild progresses (or fails to do so), Robert could conceivably still be part of a contending White Sox club in a few years’ time. And if things do stall out longer than the team currently hopes, he’d command a haul even if he were being marketed with “only” two years or one and a half years of club control remaining.

For now, the focus will be squarely on getting Robert back onto the field — though it seems a late-May return is a best-case scenario. Nightengale suggests the Sox will at least be open to the idea of outside acquisitions and lists free agent Tommy Pham as a potential fit.

Braves Place Spencer Strider On Injured List With UCL Sprain

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April 7: The Braves officially placed Strider on the 15-day injured list this morning with a UCL sprain. The club recalled right-hander Allan Winans in the corresponding move. Winans, 28, posted a 5.29 ERA and 4.09 FIP in six starts with Atlanta last year.

April 6: Braves right-hander Spencer Strider underwent an MRI today and the testing revealed that the ace hurler has suffered damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, per a team announcement. The next step for the Braves is for Strider to be evaluated by noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister, though the club noted that a date for that visit has yet to be determined.

UCL damage is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, though it appears no determination has yet been made regarding Strider’s specific treatment plan. If Strider does end up going under the knife, it won’t be the first time the hurler’s right elbow has required surgery. Before being drafted by the Braves in the fourth round of the 2020 draft, Strider underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2019 while pitching for Clemson University. If required, a second surgery would surely bring Strider’s 2024 campaign to an early close while also shelving him for much of the 2025 campaign as well.

Even less severe options are likely to result in an extended absence for the right-hander, however. For example, Red Sox righty Lucas Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure on his UCL last month that could allow him to pitch the entire 2025 campaign, though he’ll still miss all of the current season. Meanwhile, Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie required only rehab for a UCL sprain suffered last June and managed to return to the mound after just over three months on the shelf.

Regardless of what treatment is ultimately prescribed for Strider, it appears he’s ticketed for a significant absence. It’s a brutal blow for the Braves, though not entirely unexpected after the club announced yesterday that Strider would undergo an MRI on his elbow. The fourth place finisher in NL Cy Young award voting last year, Strider has emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the sport over the past two seasons, pitching to an excellent 3.36 ERA with a sterling 2.43 FIP while striking out a sensational 37.4% of batters faced. That incredible strikeout rate is by far the best of all qualified starters over the past two seasons, with reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell, who sports a 31.7% rate, standing as the only other pitcher to post a figure north of 30%.

Fortunately for Atlanta, the club is about as well equipped as any team could be to handle an extended absence from a pitcher of Strider’s caliber. Pending free agent Max Fried is an ace in his own right with a career 3.06 ERA, while veteran southpaw Chris Sale is only a few years removed from being one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet in Chicago and Boston. With those two at the front of the rotation, veterans Charlie Morton and Reynaldo Lopez in the middle, and quality youngsters Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver available as depth options for the fifth spot in the rotation, the Braves’ rotation should be able to support the club’s excellent offense as they push for their seventh consecutive NL East title even without Strider in the mix.

Stephen Strasburg Officially Retires

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April 7: Strasburg officially announced his retirement in a statement (as relayed by Ghiroli) this morning.

“Today, I am announcing my retirement from the game I love,” the statement reads. “I realized after repeated attempts to return to pitching, injuries no longer allow me to perform at a Major League level… Although I will always wish there were more games to be pitched, I find comfort knowing I left it all out there for the only team I’ve known. My family and I are truly fortunate and blessed to have experienced this baseball journey in the Nation’s Capitol.”

The Nationals also released statements thanking Strasburg from owner Mark Lerner and GM Mike Rizzo.

“No one can dispute the indelible impact he had on our organization,” Lerner said of Strasburg in the statement. “He put us on the map as World Champions and changed the face of our franchise.”

“From his Major League debut in 2010 through leading us to a title as the World Series MVP in 2019, the impact he’s had on our ball club is undeniable. He will go down as one of the best players in Washington Nationals history, and it was my honor to be part of that journey.”

April 6: Right-hander Stephen Strasburg has officially retired, as noted by Andrew Golden of the Washington Post. Neither the Nationals or Strasburg have announced the decision, which was posted on MLB.com’s transactions log this evening. Golden adds that Strasburg will be paid the $105MM left on his seven-year, $345MM deal with the Nationals, though Strasburg has reportedly agreed to defer some of his remaining salary. Golden adds that the specifics of the deferrals are not yet clear, though The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli makes clear that the arrangement does not lower the total value of Strasburg’s deal with the club.

The news concludes a lengthy saga that saw Strasburg’s initial retirement plans, which came to light in August of last year, scuttled by a dispute between the player and team over the remainder of his contract with the club that reportedly arose when the team sought to change the terms of their initial retirement agreement, which would have seen the right-hander be paid in full. Whether or not Strasburg would retire was largely immaterial from a baseball perspective, as the 35-year-old has been shut down from all baseball activity for nearly a year due to nerve damage and thoracic outlet syndrome, which has interfered with the veteran’s ability to perform basic tasks such as opening doors or lifting his young children in recent years.

Those injuries limited Strasburg to just eight starts over the course of his megadeal with Washington, which came on the heels of the righty winning World Series MVP honors in 2019 for his role in bringing home the only championship in franchise history. Strasburg’s heroics in 2019, which saw him pitch to an excellent 3.32 ERA while leading the NL with 209 innings pitched in the regular season before dominating with a 1.98 ERA in 36 1/3 postseason innings that fall, act as a capstone on an illustrious 13-year career that was cut short by injuries.

When he was selected first overall by the Nationals in the 2009 draft, Strasburg was among the most heralded amateur talents in the history of the sport thanks to his work at San Diego State University, where he pitched to a sterling 1.43 ERA and racked up 328 strikeouts over his final two seasons in college. He ascended through the minor leagues quickly to make his big league debut in June of the 2010 season, allowing two runs in seven innings against Pittsburgh while striking out 14 Pirates and flashing a triple-digit fastball.

Unfortunately, the right-hander’s debut season was cut short by Tommy John surgery, though he did manage to make 12 starts where he pitched to a phenomenal 2.91 ERA with an even better 2.08 FIP. From the moment he returned to the mound at the end of the 2011 season, however, Strasburg joined a core of young talent in Washington that also included the likes of Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Anthony Rendon. That group led the club to eight consecutive winning seasons from 2012 to 2019 that included five trips to the playoffs, including the aforementioned World Series championship in 2019.

That eight-year stretch saw Strasburg dominate to the tune of a 3.21 ERA and 3.03 FIP in 222 starts at the front of the D.C. rotation while striking out 28.9% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 800 innings during that time, Strasburg posted the fourth-best strikeout rate and sixth-best FIP while ranking eleventh in ERA, and 30th in both walk rate and groundball rate. Strasburg’s time at the top of the Nationals rotation culminated in 2019, when he led the Nationals through the playoffs against the Brewers, Dodgers, and Cardinals alongside Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin before the club felled the Astros in seven games to secure the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Following the win, Strasburg opted out of the remainder of his seven-year $175MM deal with Washington in order to test the open market for the first time in his career. The club went over the top to keep their franchise face, signing the then-31-year-old Strasburg to a deal that would take him through his age-37 season. That contract will go down as one of the worst in MLB history, as Strasburg pitched just 31 1/3 innings of 6.98 ERA baseball after it took effect in 2020, while the Nationals found themselves plunged into a lengthy rebuild by the summer of 2021.

While injuries may have derailed Strasburg’s career in his final years, few players ever reach the peaks that the three-time All Star did during his time in the majors. The right-hander enters the record books with a career 3.24 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.02 FIP in 1,470 innings of work. He struck out 1,723 batters in his career while going 113-62 in 247 career starts in the regular season. He pairs those fantastic career numbers with even better postseason figures, including a 1.46 ERA in 55 1/3 playoff innings and a whopping 32.6% strikeout rate during the postseason. MLB Trade Rumors congratulates Strasburg on a phenomenal career and wishes him the best as he officially enters retirement.

Shane Bieber To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Guardians ace Shane Bieber will soon be undergoing a Tommy John surgery after experiencing elbow pain in each of his last two starts, the team announced.  Bieber will miss the rest of the 2024 season and roughly half of the 2025 season, as per the usual recovery timeline for TJ procedures.  As initially reported by MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, right-hander Peter Strzelecki has been called to take Bieber’s roster spot, now that the Guards have officially placed Bieber on the 15-day injured list.  (He’ll inevitably be moved to the 60-day IL when Cleveland next needs to open a 40-man roster spot.)

The devastating news comes on the heels of an injury-shortened 2023 campaign for the right-hander, as Bieber was limited to 128 innings while missing about two and a half months due to elbow inflammation.  He returned from the 60-day injured list to make two starts in late September, which seemingly indicated that the problem was behind him, and that Bieber could now look forward to a more normal offseason and ramp-up routine.  However, as the Guardians’ statement indicates, Bieber had some discomfort in his elbow following his first start this year, and the problem continued through his next outing.

Certainly nothing appeared to be amiss in terms of results, given that Bieber looked completely dominant in tossing 12 shutout innings and recording 20 strikeouts (against just one walk and 10 hits allowed) over his two starts.  This will now unfortunately mark the last we’ll see of Bieber on a big league mound for the next 13-15 months, and we might have already seen his final outing in a Cleveland uniform since he is a free agent this winter.

It counted as something of a surprise to see Bieber even still with the Guardians on Opening Day, given how it was widely assumed that the right-hander would be traded in advance of his walk year.  The Guards have routinely traded star players within 12-18 months of free agency since the organization is rarely (Jose Ramirez notwithstanding) willing to pay the money necessary to sign such prominent names to contract extensions.  As frustrating as this process has been for Cleveland fans, the front office’s track record in these trades has been pretty successful, and some of the players gained in those deals have helped the Guardians to remain competitive despite low payrolls.

If it wasn’t for his elbow issue last season, it is quite possible the Guards might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline.  His health status surely impacted his trade value this past winter, as despite reports linking the Angels, Dodgers, Reds, Yankees, and Cubs to Bieber’s market, Cleveland wasn’t able to work out a deal with any of these (and undoubtedly many other) interested suitors.  It’s easy to say now in the wake of Bieber’s Tommy John surgery that the Guardians should’ve moved him for whatever half-decent offer they received, though we don’t know what offers were on the table, and naturally the Guards weren’t keen on selling low on such a valuable trade asset.

There’s also the value of what Bieber brought to Cleveland’s own rotation, as the Guardians were hit with a lot of injuries to notable starters in 2023.  The team’s outstanding pitching development pipeline helped cover this problem in impressive fashion with the emergence of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen, and going into this season, the idea of that young trio teaming with Bieber and the returning Triston McKenzie seemed like a promising step in the Guards’ plans to return to contention.  However, Williams started the season on the 15-day IL due to elbow discomfort, and both Ben Lively and Xzavion Curry are also on the IL since a virus set the two pitchers back during Spring Training.

Veteran Carlos Carrasco has already stepped into the rotation in Williams’ place, and the Guardians will now have to hope for a quick recovery from either Lively or Curry with Bieber gone for the season.  Jaime Barria is also a candidate to pick up starts in the short term, or Hunter Gaddis or Tyler Beede could be stretched out from their current relief roles, or used in a piggyback/bulk starter capacity.

A fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, Bieber became the latest star product of the Cleveland pitching factory when he made his MLB debut in 2018, and then finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  That breakout year led to Bieber winning the Cy during the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 1.63 ERA over 77 1/3 innings.  While the season’s abbreviated nature carries an obvious asterisk, it was just the 13th time in MLB history that a pitcher led the entire league in ERA, wins (eight), and strikeouts (122) in the same year.

Bieber hasn’t since returned to those heights, though he still has a 3.13 ERA in 436 2/3 innings from 2021-24, and he was an All-Star in 2021 and a seventh-place finisher in Cy Young Award voting in 2022.  With this success came increasingly larger paydays throughout Bieber’s arbitration-eligible years, culminating in the arb-avoiding $13.125MM deal he signed for 2024.  A big bounce-back season would’ve therefore set him up quite nicely for a pricey free agent contract in the 2024-25 offseason, especially if he could’ve avoided a qualifying offer via a midseason trade from the Guardians.

As it stands now, Bieber might have to wait quite some time to score a hefty multi-year commitment.  Even if he pitches well after returning partway through the 2025 season, clubs might want to see a larger sample size of good health and good results before guaranteeing a nine-figure salary.  Assuming then that Bieber pitched well and stays healthy throughout 2026, he might then have a safer track record….but teams could then be wary of Bieber’s age, since 2027 would be his age-32 season.

Under the circumstances, there is a chance the Guardians could yet retain Bieber into 2025, as unlikely as this scenario would’ve seemed even a few days ago.  Cleveland might look to extend Bieber through the 2025 campaign or even both the 2025-26 seasons, on a low salary for 2025 and then the rest of the money backloaded into 2026.  We’ve seen such contractual models used for other pitchers recovering from lengthy injury rehabs, most recently Brandon Woodruff’s two-year, $17.5MM deal to re-sign with the Brewers less than two months ago.  If Bieber and the Guards had interest in such an arrangement, Bieber could complete his entire rehab in a familiar environment, and the Guardians could still get some benefit from having Bieber for part of 2025 and perhaps 2026.

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