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Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras

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7:54pm: There is currently no meeting scheduled between Soto and the Giants, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic.

11:10 am: The list of known teams who have upcoming meetings with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras continues to grow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that both the Blue Jays and Red Sox are set to meet with Soto and his representative this week. They’ll join Mets and Yankees in that regard. Passan adds that the Jays are “serious about adding a star” to the lineup alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Soto unsurprisingly tops their wishlist.

Similarly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman paints the Jays as a legitimate contender in the Soto bidding. Toronto was famously willing to put forth the same offer that the Dodgers did to lure Shohei Ohtani to Los Angeles last winter, and Heyman adds that the Jays tried to trade for Soto last winter as well before the Yankees ultimately acquired him from the Padres. Both reports peg Toronto as a motivated buyer on the heels of a disastrous 2024 season that saw them finish in the AL East cellar.

From a payroll vantage point, the Jays should have a clear path to making a compelling offer. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the only players the Blue Jays have signed beyond the 2026 season — the latter never earning more than $8MM annually. RosterResource projects Toronto’s 2025 payroll at around $197MM at the moment — a good ways shy of last year’s franchise-record $225MM Opening Day mark. That projected number could drop even further with several non-tender/trade candidates still on the roster (e.g. Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, Jordan Romano, Zach Pop). By 2026, the Blue Jays have under $75MM in guarantees on the books.

Toronto, of course, hopes to extend the aforementioned Guerrero and would need a massive offer to do so, but a long-term payroll ledger with Soto and Guerrero seems plenty doable given the lack of other commitments. Shortstop Bo Bichette could be another extension candidate, but he’s a tough case for a long-term deal after an injury-shortened season that included career-worst production at the plate. At the very least, it’s easy to see how the Blue Jays could make an aggressive push and competitive bid for Soto, as they did with Ohtani.

That’s generally true of the Red Sox as well, though their short-term books aren’t quite so clean. Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela are the only players signed truly long-term in Boston, but the Red Sox will still be paying Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story notable salaries through the 2027 season at least. That said, the Sox have a much smaller arbitration class and don’t have the specter of a superstar’s potential departure hanging over them, as the Jays do with Guerrero. They’re projected for a payroll around $136MM in 2025 (again, via RosterResource) — modest relative to their franchise-record spending levels.

That said, the Red Sox have curbed spending in recent seasons. They did open the 2022 season with a $206MM payroll but have otherwise spent in the $170-180MM range since 2020. Back in 2018, when they last won a World Series, the Sox opened the season at $233MM. They followed with a $236MM in 2019 (both figures via Cot’s). Signing Soto would require a willingness to return to those 2018-19 levels — if not exceed them — but there are some signals the organization is willing to do just that.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been vocal about his intention of “deliver[ing] the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” adding that the Sox need to be willing to be big players in the free agent and trade markets in order to do so. Skeptics will call back to chairman Tom Werner’s regrettable and oft-mocked “full throttle” comments from an offseason ago, but Breslow has taken a more direct and repeated stance on his intent to be active in both markets.

The Sox have multiple areas they’ll need to target, however, as Breslow has also voiced his intent to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. (They’ve also been linked to Max Fried, further lending credence to the idea that they’re willing to spend this winter.) Soto won’t accomplish that specific goal, nor will he help to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup (another of Breslow’s stated objectives), but that’s of little consequence. Free agents as young and impactful as Soto only come around every few decades; adding him to the lineup is an endeavor unique unto itself, and the rest of a team’s given goals can take a backseat to such a rare pursuit.

Twins CEO Dave St. Peter Steps Down; Derek Falvey, Jeremy Zoll Promoted

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More major organizational changes are underway for the Twins. After general manager Thad Levine stepped down earlier in the offseason and chairman Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a sale of the franchise, president and CEO Dave St. Peter announced that he is stepping down after 22 years and moving into an advisory role. Derek Falvey will assume many of St. Peter’s duties and now hold the title of both president of baseball and business operations. Falvey, who’s been running Minnesota’s baseball operations since 2016, will have a new general manager working alongside him as well. The Twins promoted assistant GM Jeremy Zoll to the GM role that was vacated when Levine left the organization.

“This is a difficult decision because this [team] has been my life,” St. Peter tells the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller. “This has been my journey. I’ve given everything I have to this organization and have been proud to do it. … I feel truly convicted that Derek is the right successor, and I want to support him in every way and set him up for success, hopefully, over the long haul. The move is important because it signals, I’m hoping, to the broader organization and to our partners that there is stability and continuity.”

Falvey was originally hired away from Cleveland, where he’d been an assistant general manager. The Twins initially tabbed him with the seldom-used “chief baseball officer” title before promoting him to president of baseball operations and extending him in 2022. St. Peter tells Miller that Falvey has been preparing for a shift of this type for years, participating in discussions and meetings regarding the team’s business, media and partnerships for some time.

Similarly, Falvey explained to Miller how Zoll, 34, has been taking on a larger role in baseball operations over the years. Per Falvey, Zoll ran point on numerous free-agent and trade negotiations, including Minnesota’s acquisition of right-hander Sonny Gray back in 2022. A product of Pennsylvania’s Haverford College, Zoll has been working in baseball ops for more than a decade. He worked with the Reds and Blue Jays before joining the Angels as their director of advance scouting in 2014 and then moving onto the Dodgers, where he held the title assistant director of player development. Falvey hired Zoll as the Twins’ director of minor league operations in 2017, and he was elevated to assistant general manager two years later.

“I’ve always tried to throw myself at whatever opportunity was in front of me to the best of my ability,” Zoll tells Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. “When this all finally came to pass, it’s in a real way a validation of a lot of hard work and being able to know that so many people around me have been able to help accomplish a lot of successes to put me in this position.”

Changes atop the organizational hierarchy are only part of the story in a transitional time for the Twins organization. In addition to front office shuffles and the looming potential of a sale, Minnesota dismissed four members of manager Rocco Baldelli’s coaching staff and severed ties with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports, turning broadcast rights directly over to Major League Baseball. The Twins (re)hired Matt Borgschulte away from the Orioles to serve as their hitting coach but still have multiple vacancies to fill. Given the fact that Falvey’s role is growing and Levine’s title has been filled internally, it’s also possible there’ll be some additional hirings in the baseball operations department to help shoulder some of the workload there.

Marlins Hire Clayton McCullough As Manager

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Nov. 11: The Marlins have now formally announced the hiring.

Nov. 10: The Marlins have hired Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough as their new manager, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports (X link).  This is the 44-year-old McCullough’s first job as a skipper at the big league level.

It was no secret that the Marlins would be moving on from Skip Schumaker at season’s end, and Miami interviewed such names as McCullough, then-Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz, Tigers bench coach George Lombard, and the Marlins’ own former bench coach Luis Urueta (who worked on Schumaker’s staff).  After speaking with over 10 candidates in Zoom interviews, the Marlins then met with Venable and Albernaz for in-person interviews, seemingly establishing the two as finalists.

However, Venable was then hired by the White Sox as their new manager, while Albernaz chose to remain in Cleveland and pulled himself out of the running for the managerial jobs in both Chicago and Miami.  This left the Marlins turning to another candidates, and the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson wrote that the club had an in-person meeting with McCullough this past week in McCullough’s home in Jupiter, Florida.  Since the Marlins hold their Spring Training camp in Jupiter, it makes for something of a homecoming for McCullough as he embarks on his new chapter in his career.

McCullough was a minor league catcher in Cleveland’s farm system from 2002-05 before beginning his coaching career at age 27 as the manager of the Blue Jays’ Gulf Coast League rookie ball affiliate.  McCullough managed in Toronto’s farm system from 2007-14, working his way up the ladder to manage at all three A-level affiliates before leaving the organization to join the Dodgers in 2015.  Initially working as the Dodgers’ minor league field coordinator, McCullough spent a couple of years working with Gabe Kapler (now the Marlins’ assistant GM) when Kapler was Los Angeles’ director of player development.

The move to the big league coaching staff came in 2021, and McCullough has been the L.A. first base coach for the last four seasons.  It wasn’t long before McCullough’s name began to surface in managerial searches around the league, as McCullough was a candidate for vacancies with the Mets, Brewers, Guardians, and Royals in recent years, in addition to the consideration from the White Sox this very offseason.  The Royals’ job was probably McCullough’s closest call, as he was reportedly a finalist two years ago before Kansas City opted to hire Matt Quatraro.

McCullough now faces a tough challenge in his first managerial gig, as the Marlins are coming off a 100-loss season.  Miami’s wild card berth in the 2023 playoffs seems like ages ago now, since the club parted ways with general manager Kim Ng and hired Peter Bendix as the new president of baseball operations.  Bendix’s first assignment has been to reinforce the minor league system and tear down the MLB roster, leaving Miami fans facing yet another rebuild.

There obviously isn’t any pressure on McCullough to win any time soon, as his chief task will be to oversee a pretty inexperienced roster.  Rather than wins or losses, McCullough’s immediate results will be gauged on how the young Marlins (both on the active roster and coming up from the farm) can develop at the big league level.  McCullough’s history as a minor league manager will surely help in this regard, as will his pedigree as a coach with a World Series-winning team.

With the Marlins’ decision now made, the managerial hiring cycle is now complete for the offseason, barring any unexpected firings in the coming weeks or months.  McCullough joins Venable and Reds manager Terry Francona as new bench bosses heading into the 2025 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines To Post Roki Sasaki For MLB Clubs

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November 10: The previously unspecified arm injury that caused Sasaki to miss time in 2024 was reportedly “a bout with shoulder fatigue,” according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon. The young right-hander’s recent injury history is just about the only thing that could give potential suitors pause this offseason, but such a relatively minor ailment is unlikely to do much damage to his market.

November 9: Roki Sasaki is coming to MLB next season. His NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, announced overnight (on X) that they intend to make their ace available via the posting system. They did not reveal a specific date when they’ll open the posting window. Sasaki will be represented by Wasserman, tweets Francys Romero.

The announcement opens one of the top storylines of the offseason. Sasaki, who turned 23 last week, is the best pitcher in Japan. He’s one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. It’s the second consecutive offseason in which MLB teams will compete for arguably NPB’s best pitcher. Unlike the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding, Sasaki’s earning power is capped at a few million dollars.

MLB classifies players who sign out of a foreign league before they turn 25 as amateurs. Those players can only sign a minor league contract and are subject to a hard-capped bonus limit. Whichever team signs Sasaki is allowed to add him to the MLB roster by Opening Day — he isn’t going to start the season in Triple-A even though his first contract will be a minor league deal — but he won’t be able to sign for huge money.

After he signs, Sasaki will be subject to the same six-year control window that applies to any player called up from the farm system. He’ll play the next three seasons on roughly league minimum salaries before going through arbitration three times. Sasaki would not return to the open market until the 2030-31 offseason. He would be eligible to sign an extension during his team control window, but MLB has the ability to block a contract that it deems a circumvention of the bonus pool limits. There’s no set criteria for what might cause MLB to intervene, but it’s safe to say that Sasaki won’t be signing a massive extension within a few weeks of agreeing to a modest signing bonus.

Yamamoto waited until his 25th birthday to avoid the bonus limit. That freed him to sign with the Dodgers for $325MM, the largest guarantee for a pitcher in history. Sasaki didn’t want to follow that path. He instead prioritized making the move to MLB as quickly as possible, though that required the cooperation of the Marines.

NPB players are not eligible for international free agency until they’ve accrued nine years of service time. Sasaki has pitched at Japan’s highest level for four years. He unsuccessfully pushed for the Marines to post him for MLB teams last offseason. He gets his wish this time around. There’s been speculation that Sasaki’s contract might’ve contained some kind of clause to force the team’s hand.

Whether out of contractual obligation or simply to honor the player’s wishes, the Marines will lose their ace for essentially nothing. The posting agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball ties the NPB team’s compensation to the value of the free agent contract. An MLB team signing a posted player pays a fee to the Japanese team on top of what goes to the player. The fee is a fixed amount calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.

Yamamoto’s deal came with a windfall for his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. The Dodgers paid the Buffaloes $50.625MM to release him from his contract. The Marines will get a fraction of that. If Sasaki signs for $10MM — and there’s a decent chance his bonus will land below that — the team would receive a $2MM posting fee.

The Marines’ loss will be an MLB team’s gain. Evaluators project Sasaki as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He can push into the triple digits with his fastball and has a potentially lethal splitter. His fastball lost a bit of life this past season, though the pitch still sits in the upper 90s. Marquee’s Lance Brozdowski reports (YouTube link) that Sasaki averaged 97.1 MPH this year after sitting at 99 MPH in ’23. That’s well above average for an MLB starter despite trending in the wrong direction.

While the fastball velocity is eye-catching, evaluators suggest his low-90s splitter is his best pitch. He deploys a slider as his top breaking ball, and while that’s not as well regarded as the fastball-splitter combination, it’s a potential above-average offering. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris broke down Sasaki’s pitch mix in greater detail this week.

Writing for Baseball America in 2023, Kyle Glaser projected Sasaki as an ace who’d warrant the first overall pick if he were in the domestic amateur draft. Glaser ranked Sasaki as the most talented non-MLB player in the ’23 World Baseball Classic, one spot ahead of Yamamoto. Sasaki struck out 11 hitters over 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball for Japan’s championship team.

The 6’2″ hurler has posted dominant numbers on a rate basis in NPB. He has a career 2.10 earned run average in nearly 400 innings. This year’s 2.35 ERA was the highest of any of his four seasons. In a relative down year, Sasaki punched out nearly 29% of batters faced against a manageable 7.1% walk percentage.

To the extent there’s a knock against Sasaki, it’s his workload. He has yet to reach 130 innings in any season. He was limited to 111 frames this year and missed time midseason due to an unspecified injury in his throwing arm. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that he also suffered a torn oblique. The injury history is a concern when paired with his slight velocity dip, but it’s unlikely to dissuade teams from an all-out recruitment. The upside of getting a potential top-of-the-rotation arm far outweighs the minimal cost.

Passan writes that the Marines have not settled on a date when they’ll open the posting window. Whenever they officially post him, Sasaki has 45 days to decide where to sign. It’s possible that’ll carry well into the 2025 calendar. Major League Baseball’s signing periods for international amateurs run between January 15 and December 15 every year. Teams commit the vast majority of that money on 1/15, finalizing contracts that have been verbally agreed upon well in advance.

Sasaki may prefer to wait until the opening of next year’s signing window. Teams already have verbal agreements with amateur players — most of whom are signing out of Latin America at age 16 — for their 2025 bonus window. Clubs could renege on some of those unofficial agreements to reallocate money for Sasaki. Teams are also allowed to trade for international signing bonus space up to a point. A team can acquire up to 75% of its initial bonus pool allotment. A club that knows it won’t have a chance to land Sasaki may be willing to trade most of its bonus space to a team in pursuit of the Japanese star in exchange for other prospects or MLB help.

In April, Baseball America’s Ben Badler published a list of teams’ bonus allotments for the ’25 signing period. The Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, A’s, Mariners and Rays have the largest pools at $7.5555MM each. If one of those teams acquired another 75% via trade and devoted the entire allotment to Sasaki, his maximum signing bonus would be around $13.22MM.

He’ll almost certainly sign for far less. If Sasaki were prioritizing money, he’d have waited until he turned 25 and sought a deal that rivaled or beat Yamamoto’s. As was the case with Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki is leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table in the short term to get to MLB right away. All 30 teams will be on more or less even footing financially. His free agency will be about teams’ competitive outlooks, pitching development plans and geographic preferences.

There’s already ample speculation about the Dodgers as a landing spot. They’re certainly well positioned from a competitive and geographic perspective. Financial might isn’t a direct consideration for this free agent, though, and any team could fit Sasaki into the budget if he were genuinely open to all offers.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cardinals Expected To Gauge Trade Interest In Nolan Arenado

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The Cardinals’ reset isn’t likely to feature trades of Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray — both have no-trade clauses and reportedly prefer to remain in St. Louis — but they’ll still have some big names on the market. Among them could be third baseman Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards will spend the next couple weeks gauging which teams have interest in Arenado and getting a feel for what might be available in a trade. If there’s anything compelling that comes from those early talks, they’ll approach Arenado about his openness to waiving his no-trade clause for a trade to the location(s) in question.

Arenado, 34 in April, is signed for another three seasons and owed a total of $74MM in that time. The Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that sum ($5MM in 2025 and $5MM in 2026), which helps to make the contract a bit more enticing. The 10-time Gold Glove winner and six-time Platinum Glove recipient remains a premium defender at the hot corner, but while Arenado was an MVP finalist in 2022, his past two seasons at the plate have been far less impressive. He’s still been an above-average hitter, but not by a wide margin. Since Opening Day 2023, Arenado carries a .269/.320/.426 batting line (104 wRC+).

Once a perennial threat for 30 to 40 home runs, Arenado has seen his power diminish considerably over the past two years. This past season’s .123 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting  average) was a career-low mark. The 16 home runs he tallied in 635 plate appearances and 152 games are his fewest since he hit only 10 long balls as a rookie in 2013 (albeit in a smaller sample of 133 games/514 plate appearances).

Arenado’s contact skills remain excellent, but even the 15.5% strikeout rate he’s posted since 2023 is up from the 13.2% rate he posted in the four preceding seasons. He’s never been one to walk at an especially high clip, but Arenado drew a free pass in 9.1% of his plate appearances from 2016-22 — compared  to just 6.8% in 2023-24. This past season’s average exit velocity (86.3 mph), barrel rate (3.2%) and hard-hit rate (31.2%) were all well shy of league-average and easily career-low numbers.

The downturn in offensive output, combined with a relatively weighty salary and Arenado’s no-trade rights, all complicate the paths to a potential deal being brokered. The extent to which that no-trade provision will come into play is an open question, but there’s reason to think it might not be the hurdle such clauses often are. Arenado’s exit in Colorado was prompted in part by his frustration over the team’s inability to field a competitive roster. He passed on an opt-out opportunity in contract after a third-place NL MVP finish in 2022 partly because he prioritized playing for a contending club and expected the Cardinals to be just that.

While a trade of Arenado is far, far from a sure thing, there are plenty of teams who’ll be in the mix for third base help. The Yankees, Mariners, Astros (if Alex Bregman leaves), Blue Jays, Tigers and Royals all have reasonably straightforward vacancies at the position. If Pete Alonso signs elsewhere in free agency, the Mets could move Mark Vientos to first base and enter the third base market. The Dodgers don’t need a third baseman but have been linked to Arenado frequently over the years.

If the Cardinals do move on from Arenado, it’ll gel with their offseason goal of opening more playing time for young talent. They’ve already committed to moving Contreras to first base in order to create at-bats for 24-year-old Ivan Herrera behind the dish. Dealing Arenado could open reps for Jordan Walker at his natural position — his attempted move from third base to the outfield hasn’t played out particularly well — or for Nolan Gorman. It’d also trim a notable amount of money off the books in each of the next three years, perhaps allowing the Cards to spend a bit more freely when they eventually look to emerge from the current retooling effort.

Hal Steinbrenner To Meet With Boras/Soto

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Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is scheduled to fly to Southern California for an in-person meeting with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras, report Mark W. Sanchez and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Post reports that the sit-down will occur in about a week a half — a few days after Boras and Soto welcome Mets owner Steve Cohen.

Boras suggested at this week’s GM Meetings that Soto plans to meet with the ownership group of every team that is pursuing him. That made it an inevitability that he’d sit down with each of Cohen and Steinbrenner. The Yankees and Mets are the two most obvious suitors for the market’s top free agent.

Plenty of teams would love to bring Soto into the fold. Heyman reported last week that at least 11 teams had reached out to Boras to express interest — the Giants, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Red Sox among them. Still, there’s speculation throughout the industry that Soto is likeliest to land with one of the New York teams. Boras has publicly stated that Soto is willing to sign anywhere. Saying otherwise wouldn’t do his market any favors, of course.

Phillies owner John Middleton opined today that the bidding may come down to the Yankees and Mets. “I’m afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse,” Middleton told Conor Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “At some point, if [president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski] and I get that feeling, we’ll probably say, ‘You know what, we’re not going to win this’ because we’ve both been the stalking horse before. And if I were an agent, I would do it too. It’s perfectly good strategy. I mean, it’s smart. But at the end of the day, I just think he likes New York.“

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Super Two Status Set At 2.132 Years Of Service

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This offseason’s cutoff for Super Two arbitration eligibility has been set at two years and 132 days of service time, per reporting from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. This is an increase from last year, when the cutoff was 2.118.

Players automatically qualify for arbitration when they reach three years of service time and don’t already have a guaranteed contract. The top 22% of players in service time between two and three years also qualify one offseason early (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list).

Here are the thresholds from prior offseasons:

  • 2023: 2.118
  • 2022: 2.128
  • 2021: 2.116
  • 2020: 2.125
  • 2019: 2.115
  • 2018: 2.134
  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Qualifying for arbitration early can have a significant impact on a player’s earning power. There’s the immediate benefit of potentially having a higher salary in the forthcoming season, as well as the ability to go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three.

In an extreme example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays was a Super Two Player after 2021. He and the Jays went year to year in arbitration, with Guerrero earning $7.9MM in 2022, followed by $14.5MM and $19.9MM in second and third arbitration seasons. MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $29.6MM salary in 2025, Guerrero’s fourth and final arb year.

Some players who just made this year’s cutoff include Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox (2.136) and Beau Brieske of the Tigers (2.134). Blum lists Angel Perdomo of Atlanta as a player who just missed the cutoff.

Teams have until November 22 to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Players who are non-tendered become free agents without going through waivers. Those who are tendered contracts, they and the clubs have until January 9 to exchange proposed salary figures. The hearings are scheduled to take place from January 27 to February 14 in St. Petersburg, Florida. Players and clubs can avoid arbitration by agreeing to a salary at any time, though most teams have a policy of ending negotiations after the filing deadline, with exceptions for multi-year pacts.

Phillies Promote Preston Mattingly To General Manager

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The Phillies announced today that vice president and general manager Sam Fuld is pursuing his MBA at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is slated to graduate in May of 2026, at which point he will take the title of president of business operations. Assistant general manager Preston Mattingly has been promoted to take the role of vice president and general manager.

Fuld, 42, played in the majors from 2007 to 2015. Given that he went to college at Stanford and majored in economics, he was viewed by many in the game as a future front office member. He got hired by the Phillies in 2017 with the title of major league player information coordinator. His name was then connected to various managerial openings over the years but he stuck with the Phils and was promoted to GM going into 2021. Dave Dombrowski had just been hired as the club’s president of baseball operations and Fuld would be second on the baseball decision-making pyramid.

The two sides have seemingly been happy with the relationship. In December of 2022, Fuld and the Phils signed an extension running through December 2025. In October of 2023, the Red Sox had some interest in Fuld replace chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, though Fuld declined to be interviewed for the opening.

Since Dombrowski is 68 years old, many considered Fuld a sort of protege or a president-in-waiting, but now it seems he is planning a shift. His focus will be away from the club for the next couple of years and he will return to direct his attention to the business side, rather than the baseball side.

Mattingly, 37, will now take over as Dombrowski’s second-in-command. The son of Don Mattingly, Preston played in the minors for a while but never got higher than High-A. He pivoted to non-playing roles, working with the Padres in the scouting department. In the fall of 2021, he was plucked away by the Phils, who hired him as director of player development.

He has clearly impressed the Phils, as he got promoted to assistant general manager just two years later, in November of 2023. After a year with that title, he has gotten bumped up again. He is still second on the club’s front office hierarchy, but it’s an impressive rise in a short time and it’s possible that he could eventually replace Dombrowski, depending on how things go. For now, given that there’s more than 30 years’ difference in age between the two, Mattingly will presumably be absorbing everything he can about the role from Dombrowski as he takes on a larger piece of the club’s front office makeup.

Zach Neto Could Miss Start Of 2025 Season After Undergoing Shoulder Surgery

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Angels shortstop Zach Neto underwent shoulder surgery and could miss the start of the 2025 season. General manager Perry Minasian informed reporters such as Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (X link) and Sam Blum of The Athletic (X link), though didn’t specify the exact nature of the injury or procedure.

Per Minasian, Zeto sustained the injury playing in Chicago during the club’s final week of the season. While playing the White Sox on September 26, Zeto was on first base and tried to take second on a ball in the dirt (video link from MLB.com). After sliding headfirst into the bag and getting thrown out, he was clutching at his right shoulder and clearly in pain. The Angels then hosted the Rangers for the final three games of the season but Neto didn’t play in those.

Over a month has now passed since that injury. Per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (X link), Neto tried rehabbing but still had some lingering issues, so it seems he had to go under the knife.

Though the exact details of the situation haven’t been relayed, the timetable is not good news for the Angels. Neto has less than two years in the big leagues but has taken over the club’s shortstop job and performed well. He just wrapped up a 2024 season in which he hit 23 home runs and slashed .249/.318/.443 for a wRC+ of 114 wRC+. The reviews of his defense were mixed but he stole 30 bases on the year. Putting his total performance together, FanGraphs graded him as worth 3.5 wins above replacement on the year, tops on the team.

The club just wrapped up their worst season in franchise history, going 63-99. Despite that, owner Arte Moreno said last month that they planned to increase payroll and try to compete in 2025. They have already acquired slugger Jorge Soler from Atlanta and signed pitcher Kyle Hendricks as they attempt to upgrade the roster.

Turning a 99-loss team into a contender was always going to be a challenge, especially for a franchise that has continually fallen short of expectations. In recent years, they have had two-way star Shohei Ohtani and something near peak Mike Trout on the same roster but couldn’t even get their win-loss record over .500. Now they’ve lost Ohtani while Trout has become increasingly absent due to injuries as he pushes towards his mid 30s.

Cobbling together a winner in 2025 will now only become more difficult as their top contributor from 2024 will be missing time. Since Neto will presumably be back at some point, they probably won’t go after a big free agent like Willy Adames to fill the spot for a temporary absence. Perhaps they will keep an eye out for multi-positional players that could fill the void and then move to another spot once Neto is healthy.

It’s also possible that they’ve already been on this path. Super utility player Scott Kingery was sent from the Phillies to the Angels last week, with the Halos adding him to their roster shortly thereafter to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Kingery played mostly shortstop in Triple-A this year, also spending some time at second base and center field. He hit 25 home runs and stole 25 bases, slashing .268/.316/.488. He has a line of just .229/.280/.387 in his major league career but would be a fine utility guy if he performed the way he did in the minors in 2024.

Luis Rengifo is also on the roster and can play all over the diamond, though he’s not really considered a strong defender anywhere and is probably better suited for a less-demanding spot like second base. Kyren Paris is on the 40-man but has just 105 major league plate appearances with a rough line of .110/.214/.165 in those. Perhaps the club will keep an eye out for other depth options in free agency, the trade market, or on the waiver wire.

How the roster shakes out will be determined in the months to come. For today, it’s a setback for the Halos. They have a roster with plenty of question marks but shortstop wasn’t one of them before this news.

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