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Newsstand

Nationals Win Draft Lottery

By Anthony Franco | December 10, 2024 at 4:53pm CDT

Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Nationals
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rockies
  5. Cardinals
  6. Pirates
  7. Marlins
  8. Blue Jays
  9. Reds
  10. White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Rangers
  13. Giants
  14. Rays
  15. Red Sox
  16. Twins
  17. Cubs
  18. Diamondbacks
  19. Astros
  20. Braves
  21. Orioles
  22. Brewers
  23. Royals
  24. Tigers
  25. Padres
  26. Phillies
  27. Mets
  28. Guardians
  29. Yankees
  30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.

Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.

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2025 Amateur Draft Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals

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Tigers Sign Alex Cobb

By Darragh McDonald | December 10, 2024 at 4:18pm CDT

The Tigers announced the signing of veteran right-hander Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15MM deal. He’d unlock $1MM bonuses at each of 140 and 150 innings. Detroit designated outfielder Akil Baddoo for assignment in a corresponding move. Cobb is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.

The move fits with the Tigers’ recent modus operandi when it comes to rotation building. Since Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations in September of 2022, the club has tended towards short-term deals for starting pitchers. Detroit’s first offseason under Harris resulted in one-year deals for Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. Last winter, it was a one-year deal for Jack Flaherty and a two-year pact for Kenta Maeda.

Going into 2025, it would have been fair to expect more aggression. The Tigers surged in the second half of 2024, making the playoffs or the first time in a decade. They have an exciting core of young players and almost no money on the long-term payroll. Moving to the top tiers or even just to the middle of the rotation market could have been viable, but it was reported in recent days that the Tigers preferred to stick to chasing upside on shorter pacts.

Cobb, 37, is certainly a buy-low move since he’s coming off a mostly lost season. He was with the Giants at the start of the year, recovering from offseason hip surgery. It was initially hoped that he would be recovered from that procedure fairly early in the year but he ended up battling through some shoulder discomfort. He still hadn’t made his season debut when he was traded to the Guardians ahead of the deadline.

With the Guards down the stretch, he was able to get on the mound but also dealt with some fingernail/blister issues that got in his way and sent him back to the injured list twice down the stretch. Cleveland made the postseason regardless and Cobb was activated for the American League Division Series but he was later bumped from the Championship Series roster due to an acute left low back strain.

Around all those injury setbacks, Cobb only made five starts on the year, three in the regular season and two in the playoffs. He only threw 22 innings overall between those five outings, a tiny sample that would be tough to draw meaningful conclusions from.

The Tigers are surely hoping Cobb can bounce back from that tough season, something he’s done before. He was a rotation regular for the Rays over the 2012-14 seasons but then missed all of 2015 and most of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound and made at least 28 starts in both 2017 and 2018, but then various ailments limited him to just three starts in 2019.

He wasn’t terribly effective in the shortened 2020 season but went on to have a strong three-year run after that, his most recent stretch of being both healthy and effective. From 2021 to 2023, he made 74 starts and tossed 394 1/3 innings with a 3.79 earned run average. He struck out 22.8% of batters faced in that time, limited walks to a 6.8% clip and and kept 58.1% of balls in play on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 350 innings in that stretch, only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates.

The Tigers are obviously hoping that the injuries are behind him and Cobb can get back into that 2021-23 form. There is some risk there, as Cobb is now 37 years old and can’t keep coming back from injuries forever, but he’s done it before and has a long track record. He has 233 starts under his belt overall with a 3.84 ERA.

As Detroit engineered its fairytale finish to the 2024 season, manager A.J. Hinch used the term “pitching chaos” to describe the approach. Thanks to some trades and some injuries, the Tigers were effectively down to just Tarik Skubal as the only regular starting pitcher, otherwise cobbling games together via openers, bulk guys, bullpen games and whatever Hinch could make work.

That did the trick for a while but could be difficult to maintain over an entire 162-game schedule, so bolstering the rotation was a natural target for the Tigers this winter. Skubal and Cobb should have two rotation jobs with Reese Olson in another.

Guys like Maeda, Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe and Matt Manning could be in the mix for roles as well, but there are question marks with each of those. Maeda struggled badly this year and got bumped to the bullpen, finishing the year with a 6.09 ERA. Mize and Manning are former top prospects but with middling results thus far in their careers. Jobe is one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league but only just made his major league debut late in the year and only has two Triple-A starts under his belt.

Perhaps the Tigers will make further additions to that group. Finances shouldn’t be standing in the way. Before factoring in Cobb, RosterResource projects the Tigers for a payroll of just $80MM next year. As mentioned, there’s almost nothing on the long-term books. Cot’s Baseball Contracts had Detroit at $98MM on Opening Day this past year and they’ve been far higher than that in the past.

Though if the recent past in any indication, they’ll be looking to chase upside on fairly modest deals. They’ve been connected to arms like Kyle Gibson, Walker Buehler and Andrew Heaney in recent days, with each of those guys expected to land a one- or two-year deal. For now, the Tigers have added some stability to an area of the roster that was fairly lacking in it.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Tigers and Cobb had agreed to a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the financials.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Alex Cobb

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Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days

By Darragh McDonald | December 10, 2024 at 2:45pm CDT

Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top remaining free agents but he could be coming off the board soon. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. Rosenthal adds that right-hander Corbin Burnes is generating interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that’s depicted as more of a long shot, with the Angels listed alongside the Giants as cubs that are not finalists for Fried.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.

All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.

In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.

Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.

There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.

The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.

While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.

The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.

Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.

The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.

The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.

Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Newsstand San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Corbin Burnes Max Fried

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Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 2:37pm CDT

December 10: The Orioles officially announced O’Neill’s signing this afternoon.

December 7: The Orioles are in agreement with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year, $49.5MM deal according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that the Boras Corporation client’s contract comes with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill, 30 in June, entered his walk year having just been shipped from the Cardinals to the Red Sox. While he had earned down-ballot MVP consideration with a fantastic 2021 season in St. Louis, back-to-back down seasons combined with a glut of viable outfield options left O’Neill as the odd man out with the club. He made the most of the situation and carved a regular role for himself in Boston this year, however.

While O’Neill struggled with his health between two trips to the injured list this past year, he performed at a high level when healthy enough to take the field. In 113 games for Boston, he slashed a strong .241/.336/.511 with a 131 wRC+. That production came with an unsightly 33.6% strikeout rate, though O’Neill made up for it somewhat with 31 homers and a 11.2% walk rate.

The outfielder is certainly not without warts. His high strikeout rate is at least somewhat concerning even when factoring in his power and high walk rate, and he also posted a massive platoon split last year. While he put up an incredible 215 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year, same-handed pitchers held him to below average offense (91 wRC+) overall as he hit just .208/.290/.403 against them. O’Neill’s lengthy injury history is also something of a red flag that could hamper his value in the coming years. Even with those concerns, however, it’s easy to see O’Neill’s fit in Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep position player mix that can help to cover for O’Neill when he’s injured and perhaps even give him occasional days off against tough right-handed opponents.

Meanwhile, O’Neill’s phenomenal numbers against left-handed pitching could provide a massive boost to a heavily left-handed Orioles lineup. Orioles outfielders hit a decent .236/.302/.419 (106 wRC+) against left-handed pitching last year, but much of that production came from Anthony Santander’s 132 wRC+ against southpaws. Santander is now a free agent, leaving the club with the lefty-swinging Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Heston Kjerstad, and perhaps Ryan O’Hearn in their projected outfield mix. All four of those players are left-handed hitters, and Cowser’s 89 wRC+ against lefties last year was the highest mark among the quartet. By adding O’Neill to the mix, the Orioles should be able to help balance an outfield that projected to be well below average against southpaws in 2025.

Notably, they’ve also done so at a far more affordable price tag than they likely would’ve if they simply re-signed Santander. While MLBTR’s #9 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list was predicted for a four-year, $80MM pact in free agency after slugging 44 homers for the Orioles this year, O’Neill ranked farther down the board at #19 with a projected deal of three years and $42MM. It’s a deal O’Neill managed to beat by a small amount in terms of total guarantee, and he managed to add additional value to his contract by affording himself the opportunity to opt out of the final two years of the deal next winter. If O’Neill manages to stay healthy and replicate his strong production from his time in Boston in 2025, it’s not hard to imagine him re-entering free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal next winter.

In the meantime, O’Neill will provide a veteran presence in a young and exciting Orioles lineup. Baltimore is known to be in the market for a catcher to back up Adley Rutschman at the position and push waiver wire addition Rene Pinto into a depth role, but O’Neill’s signing likely represents the heavy lifting in terms of the club’s offensive upgrades this winter. That doesn’t mean they’re done for the winter, however; the club has long been connected to the market for starting pitching as they look to either reunite with or replace ace hurler Corbin Burnes at the top of their rotation. Aside from that, the club figures to make bullpen additions who can help to replace hurlers Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, though the return of closer Felix Bautista from Tommy John surgery in the spring should provide a big boost to the relief corps already.

The club figures to still have resources available to make those additions even after adding O’Neill. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $114MM payroll in 2025 with O’Neill in the fold. That would not only be a step above last year’s payroll but also the highest payroll the club has put forward since the 2018 season. Of course, the club’s new ownership group led by David Rubenstein has seemed far more open to spending in free agency that the Angelos family was in the final years of their ownership tenure, and the club has been candid about their increased payroll flexibility this winter. The club is likely further emboldened by just how clean their long-term books are: O’Neill’s contract is their first guaranteed money on the books for the 2026 season, with all other payroll commitments coming in the form of arbitration level or pre-arbitration level players.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Transactions Tyler O'Neill

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Orioles Sign Gary Sanchez

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 2:36pm CDT

December 10: The Orioles officially announced Sanchez’s signing this afternoon.

December 7: The Orioles have agreed to a one-year deal with catcher Gary Sanchez, according to a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, who adds that the deal guarantees Sanchez $8.5MM. Sanchez is represented by MDR Sports Management.

Sanchez, who celebrated his 32nd birthday earlier this week, returns to the AL East after spending the first seven seasons of his MLB career with the Yankees. The first few years of his career saw him establish himself as one of the better offensive catchers in baseball with a .246/.328/.518 slash line in 327 games through the end of the 2019 season. In that time, he made two All-Star games and clobbered 105 home runs in 1576 plate appearances. That 30-to-35 homer power helped to make up for Sanchez’s middling defense behind the plate, but things took a turn for the worse when he started to struggle on offense. After striking out at a 24.1% clip through the end of the 2019 season, his 2020-22 seasons saw that rate tick up to 29.5%. Meanwhile, Sanchez’s home run power began to suffer as he hit just 49 homers in 294 games. This period even saw his defense drop from roughly average to nearly unplayable, including a -12 figure in Statcast’s catcher defense metric during the 2021 season.

These struggles led the Yankees to trade Sanchez to the Twins prior to the 2022 season, where he continued to struggle at the plate but managed to bounce back a bit on defense. Sanchez then entered free agency but did not find a deal before the 2022 season began. He eventually signed with the Mets during the season but lasted just three games on the club’s roster before spending the rest of the season in a Padres uniform. With San Diego, Sanchez managed to bounce back and flash some of the power he had shown during his Yankees days, slashing .218/.292/.500 with 19 homers in just 260 plate appearances and a 114 wRC+. That earned Sanchez a guranteed deal in Milwaukee this past season, where he served as a back up for William Contreras at catcher and occasionally found his way into the first base/DH mix as well.

Since leaving the Bronx, Sanchez has generally had the look of a solid if unspectacular catching option. In that time, he’s slashed .212/.291/.412 with a 96 wRC+ that’s more or less in line with his production for the Brewers last year, and he’s done so while providing the roughly average defense he offered early in is career. That’s enough to make him a quality back up catching option for virtually any team, and he’ll take over the role vacated by James McCann when he elected free agency last month as Adley Rutschman’s partner in the Orioles catching tandem. In addition to sharing catching duties, Sanchez can also serve a secondary role of helping improve the club’s offense against left-handed pitching by providing a righty-swinging alternative to Ryan O’Hearn at DH on days where he isn’t filling in for Rutschman behind the plate. That makes Sanchez the second player the club has added today who could provide a boost to their offense against southpaws, joining Tyler O’Neill who agreed to a three-year deal with the Orioles earlier today.

While the Orioles had internal options to serve as their secondary catcher behind Rutschman such as Rene Pinto and Blake Hunt, the club made clear in recent weeks that they hoped to add a more established player to that mix. That included a reported interest in reunion with James McCann, but reports seemed to indicate that McCann could look to find a multi-year deal in free agency while the Orioles were hoping to find a one-year arrangement given the presence of top catching prospect Samuel Basallo in their minor league system. To find a quality player willing to accept a one-year deal and a back-up job that won’t guarantee regular playing time, it seems as though Baltimore may have had to go over the top to land Sanchez; his one-year, $8.5MM guarantee matches the guarantee Danny Jansen landed from the Rays yesterday to serve as their regular starter behind the plate and far exceeds the $3MM guarantee he received from the Brewers last year.

That willingness to stretch financially in order to land the right fit for their roster is a luxury GM Mike Elias and his front office haven’t had in previous winters, when the Angelos family owned the team. New owner David Rubenstein has given the club the ability to expand payroll significantly, however, and the Orioles now project to open the 2025 season with a $122MM payroll according to RosterResource. It seems reasonable to expect that the club’s payroll could continue to climb from here as well, with Baltimore seemingly poised to turn their attention to the starting pitching market where they’ve been connected to Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi if they aren’t able to retain ace Corbin Burnes. As for the catching market, Sanchez joins Austin Hedges, Jacob Stallings, Kyle Higashioka, and Jansen in having already come off the board in what’s been the fastest-moving part of the positional market this winter. A few quality options remain available, however, including Carson Kelly and Elias Diaz.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Transactions Gary Sanchez

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Shinnosuke Ogasawara Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

By Darragh McDonald | December 10, 2024 at 10:10am CDT

Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara has been officially posted by the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per reporter Francys Romero (X link). That opens up a 45-day window for his representatives at William Morris Endeavor to negotiate with major league clubs. If no deal is reached in that time, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for 2025.

It was reported back in October that the Dragons would make Ogasawara available via the posting system and that has now been rubber-stamped. The 30 MLB clubs can now officially speak to his representatives and see what sort of contract will be necessary to get him to put pen to paper.

While Ogasawara should generate interest, he’s clearly not exciting as Roki Sasaki, who has also been posted for clubs this offseason. However, Ogasawara likely has more earning power than Sasaki due to the binary nature of MLB international signing rules.

Players need to be 25 years old and have six seasons of experience in a foreign professional league in order to be considered “professionals” and have the right to freely negotiate a contract of any size and length. Players who don’t meet those criteria are considered “amateurs” and are therefore subject to the international bonus pool system, where each club gets $5-8MM annually to spend on such players. Sasaki is only 23 years old and will therefore be limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus of a few million bucks. Ogasawara, on the other hand, is 27 years old and has appeared in parts of 9 NPB seasons. That means he has the freedom to fully assess his earning power and market himself to the highest bidder.

How much interest North American clubs will have in him is unknown. Ogasawara has had some success, but not as much as some other pitchers that have recently come over like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shota Imanaga. He has thrown 951 1/3 innings over his NPB career,  though striking out just 18.9% of batters faced. For context, MLB average is usually in the 22-23% range these days. He did get his strikeout rate up to 24% in 2022 but it dropped to 20.1% last year and then all the way to 13.6% in 2024.

The lack of punchouts hasn’t stopped him from succeeding in Japan, as he has a 3.62 earned run average over his career and had a 3.12 ERA in the season that just finished, though MLB clubs might wonder if the same pitch-to-contact approach could carry over to North American ball.

Ogasawara is also on the smaller side for a starting pitcher, listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds. That’s actually slightly larger than the 5’10” and 175 pounds listed for Imanaga, so it’s not a total disqualification, but Imanaga managed to strike out 25% of batters faced in his NPB career.

Though even if Ogasawara is a notch below Imanaga, he could still generate interest. Youth is clearly an attractive quality which is why guys like Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee and Juan Soto have been paid so well, so the fact that Ogasawara just turned 27 in October will work in his favor. The recent downturn in strikeouts is a bit concerning but he also lowered his walk rate to a tiny 3.7% rate in 2024 and the ERA was still good.

It’s difficult to forecast a contract for a player coming from another league like Ogasawara but MLBTR predicted after the start of the offseason that he could land a two-year, $12MM deal. Perhaps he could benefit from the fact that the market for mid-rotation starters has been quite strong so far this winter. Each of Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have earned larger guaranteed than projected in recent weeks, which could perhaps trickle down to Ogasawara.

The lefty and his team will have more than a month to feel out the market and gauge interest. For clubs still looking to add in the rotation but who don’t want to pay for top names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Jack Flaherty, Ogasawara will be part of a mid-rotation or back-end group that still includes Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

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Newsstand Nippon Professional Baseball Shinnosuke Ogasawara

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Dodgers Sign Michael Conforto

By Nick Deeds | December 10, 2024 at 9:45am CDT

December 10: The Dodgers officially announced Conforto’s signing today.

December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight.  No, not that one.  Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.

Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.

Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.

Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out.  After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.

Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months.  He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties.  He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.

Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.

While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.

With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Michael Conforto

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Dodgers Sign Blake Treinen

By Nick Deeds and Tim Dierkes | December 10, 2024 at 9:30am CDT

December 10: Treinen’s signing has now been officially announced by the Dodgers, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link).

December 9: Per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link), Treinen will get a $5MM signing bonus and there no deferrals on the deal.

December 8: The Dodgers are in agreement with right-hander Blake Treinen on a two-year deal worth $22MM, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2.  It’s the largest deal for a reliever going into his age-37 or later season since the Yankees signed Mariano Rivera in 2010.  Treinen is represented by Apex Baseball.

Treinen, 36, was the Dodgers’ highest-leverage reliever this year.  Despite his fastball slipping nearly three miles per hour, he posted excellent marks with a 1.93 ERA, 30.4 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 44.7% groundball rate in 46 2/3 innings.  Treinen has been with the Dodgers since signing a one-year, $10MM deal five years ago after the A’s non-tendered him.

Treinen has worked 149 2/3 regular season innings for the Dodgers from 2020-24, adding another 33 1/3 across four different postseasons.  He remained the go-to reliever for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts in tough spots as the club climbed through the postseason to win a championship.  He made nine appearances this postseason, getting more than three outs in five of them.  Treinen was the winning pitcher in the decisive Game 5 of the World Series against the Yankees, stepping up with 2 1/3 scoreless innings.

Drafted in the seventh round by the A’s out of South Dakota State University in 2011, Treinen was shipped to the Nationals in January 2013 as part of a three-team deal that brought the Mariners Mike Morse.  Somewhat of an afterthought in that deal, Treinen worked his way up to a high-leverage role in the Nationals’ bullpen by 2016.  Treinen had a rough first half in 2017, and A’s GM Billy Beane made sure to reacquire the hard-throwing pitcher he’d drafted six years prior.  The A’s sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in that deal, bringing back Jesus Luzardo, Treinen, and Sheldon Neuse.

The trade back to Oakland proved a turning point in Treinen’s career, as he blossomed into one of the game’s best relievers. In fact, Treinen’s 0.78 ERA in 2018 stands as the lowest mark in MLB history for a pitcher with at least 80 innings.  The combination of a temporary setback in 2019 (perhaps related to a back injury) and Treinen’s rising arbitration salaries led to the aforementioned non-tender, however.

Though Treinen had some struggles in the shortened 2020 season, he remained healthy and even picked up a save in Game 5 on the way to his first ring.  The Dodgers re-upped him for two years and $17.5MM with a club option for a third year.  He posted a superb 2021 season, but the following two years would be plagued by injuries.

Treinen was limited to a mere five regular season innings from 2022-23, due to a shoulder injury that culminated in November 2022 labrum and rotator cuff surgery.  The Dodgers had previously secured a 2024 option that increased based on innings pitched, allowing them to retain Treinen for just $1MM this year.  He made his season debut in May due a bruised lung, hitting the IL again in August with hip discomfort.

Given that the Mets intend to use Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher, the Treinen deal is just the second significant relief contract of the offseason, after the Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman five days prior.  Treinen will again slot into the late innings for the Dodgers alongside fellow righties Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech.

The Dodgers made a pair of notable signings Sunday evening, re-signing Treinen shortly after adding outfielder Michael Conforto on a one-year deal.  The spotlight as we head into the Winter Meetings in Dallas, however, was on the Mets’ record-shattering 15-year, $765MM deal with Juan Soto.  The Dodgers were in the mix for Soto, but never seemed to be the favorite.  The Dodgers did make a splash already this winter by signing Blake Snell to a five-year, $182MM deal with deferrals.

With the additions of Snell, Conforto, and Treinen and an extension for Tommy Edman, RosterResource pegs the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax payroll at about $332MM, in a year where the fourth tax bracket sits at $301MM.  Given that the Dodgers already exceeded that mark by signing Snell, adding Conforto and Treinen will in effect cost the Dodgers $58.8MM this year, given the club’s 110% tax bracket.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Blake Treinen

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Marlins Fielding Interest In Jesus Luzardo

By Anthony Franco | December 9, 2024 at 11:37pm CDT

The Marlins are getting calls on starter Jesús Luzardo, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (X link). Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic write that the Fish are willing to entertain trade talks on the talented southpaw.

On the one hand, a team in a full rebuild like Miami is going to be open to discussing essentially every veteran player. Luzardo is a tough trade candidate, though, as the Marlins are shopping him while his value is at a low point. His ’24 campaign was more or less decimated by injury. Luzardo went on the injured list in the middle of April with elbow inflammation. He returned in May but was shelved again five weeks later by back issues. That not only took him off the table as a deadline trade candidate, it ended his season. Luzardo was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his lower back and couldn’t return to the mound.

Neither injury required surgery and Luzardo was able to begin non-throwing baseball activities by the end of the regular season. There’s no indication he won’t be full go for Spring Training. Still, there’s little doubt that acquiring teams are going to account for the injury risk as they weigh what to offer Miami.

Luzardo has spent a lot of time on the IL over his career. He fractured his throwing hand in 2021 and lost a good portion of the ’22 season to a forearm strain. He also has a Tommy John surgery on his medical chart dating back to high school in 2016. He has only topped 100 1/3 innings in an MLB season once.

That lone healthy campaign offered tantalizing upside. Luzardo took a full 32 turns through the rotation in 2023. He fired 178 2/3 frames of 3.58 ERA ball while punching out 28.1% of opposing hitters. He averaged nearly 97 MPH on his fastball, missed bats with both his slider and changeup, and limited his walks to a solid 7.4% clip.

That version of Luzardo was a #2 or high-end #3 starter, the kind of pitcher a team would happily plug into their playoff rotation. Luzardo didn’t show that form last year even when he was able to take the mound. He allowed five earned runs per nine with a diminished 21.2% strikeout rate in 66 2/3 frames. He still posted plus whiff rates on his secondary pitches, but his average fastball velocity dipped to 95.2 MPH and opponents teed off on it.

There’s obvious appeal for contenders to attempt to buy low. Luzardo is under arbitration control for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $6MM salary. That’s a bargain in comparison to a free agent market where a rebound candidate like Frankie Montas signed for $17MM annually and mid-rotation arms Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino landed more than $20MM per season on three-year deals.

Miami doesn’t have as much urgency to make a sell-low trade. Luzardo won’t make the difference between them contending for a postseason spot or not, but a strong first half could rehabilitate his value. If he demonstrates his 2023 form for three months, Luzardo would arguably be the biggest trade chip of the ’25 deadline. In the best case scenario, Miami could realistically seek multiple Top 100 type prospects next summer. If he struggles or suffers another significant injury, of course, whatever trade value he currently has would basically evaporate.

It’s largely a matter of risk tolerance for president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and his staff. The Fish have very little on the books for next season, so they’re not under any financial pressure to move Luzardo. He’ll be the highest-paid member of their otherwise modest arbitration class. They’re still on the hook for $17MM (including an option buyout) to released outfielder Avisaíl García. The only other player on a guaranteed deal is ace Sandy Alcantara, who’ll make $17MM next year. The Marlins reportedly informed Alcantara in August that they had no intention of trading him this offseason.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Jesus Luzardo

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Yankees, Mets Among Top Suitors For Garrett Crochet

By Anthony Franco | December 9, 2024 at 9:46pm CDT

One day after the Mets and Yankees finished battling for the top free agent, they’re in the competition for arguably the winter’s #1 trade candidate. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that the New York teams are currently the most aggressive suitors for White Sox’s lefty Garrett Crochet.

The Athletic writes that the Red Sox and Phillies have also expressed interest, but they appear to be behind the New York teams for the moment. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network put the Brewers on Crochet this morning, though The Athletic report does not mention Milwaukee. Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that no team is close to pulling off a deal yet.

Crochet stayed healthy in his first full season as a starter. The Sox pulled back his workload after failing to line up a deadline trade. Chicago never shut him down or skipped his turns through the rotation, but they abbreviated his starts at the end of the year. Crochet finished the season with 146 innings across 32 appearances. He turned in dominant rate stats, striking out 35.1% of batters faced against an excellent 5.5% walk rate. His 3.58 earned run average didn’t quite align with those fantastic peripherals. That’s at least in part because he was pitching in front of one of the game’s worst defensive teams, contributing to an elevated .318 average on balls in play against him.

Going into 2025, Crochet projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm. He shouldn’t have as many concerns about his workload down the stretch. His deadline trade candidacy was also complicated by the late revelation that he was seeking a contract extension if he’d be asked to pitch into the postseason during his first season as a starter. That’s no longer an obstacle.

Chicago GM Chris Getz spoke in generalities about a potential Crochet trade. He repeated the organization’s preference to add young hitting talent but suggested they weren’t opposed to building around pitching if they felt it was the best offer (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Getz reiterated that he didn’t feel compelled to make a trade this offseason, though it’d be a major surprise if Crochet were still in a White Sox uniform by the end of March.

Of the New York teams, the Mets have more talent at the top of the farm system. Their system is headlined by shortstop Jett Williams. Baseball America ranks 19-year-old infielder Jesus Baez as the #3 prospect in the organization. Ronny Mauricio is a former top prospect who might’ve opened the season as New York’s third baseman had he not torn his ACL in winter ball last year. Third baseman Brett Baty has seen his stock dip as he’s underperformed against MLB pitching, but he’s drawing attention as a change of scenery candidate. While Baty no longer has the pull to headline a Crochet package, he could be of interest as a secondary piece. (The Sox built their deadline return for Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech around Miguel Vargas, another post-hype infielder.)

The Yankees’ system is headlined by Jasson Domínguez. There’s a sharp drop thereafter, however. It’d be a surprise if the Yanks were willing to put Domínguez in a Crochet package. The switch-hitter may well be New York’s starting center fielder next year, with Aaron Judge potentially kicking to right field after Juan Soto walked. Outfielder Spencer Jones and infielders George Lombard Jr. and Roderick Arias were once viewed as Top 100 type talents, but they’re all coming off somewhat alarming minor league seasons. Jones and Arias struck out at huge rates, while Lombard didn’t hit for much power in A-ball.

Crochet is controllable for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a bargain $2.9MM salary. Even for the New York franchises, the affordability is appealing. The Yankees could prefer to attack the lineup in free agency rather than make a top-of-the-market splash for starting pitching. The Mets still need a top-of-the-rotation starter. They’ve thus far shied away from making that kind of move in free agency, instead building the rotation with upside plays for Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox New York Mets New York Yankees Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Garrett Crochet

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