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Tomoyuki Sugano Expected To Sign With MLB Team This Offseason

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Longtime Nippon Professional Baseball star Tomoyuki Sugano is planning to sign with an MLB team this offseason, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. After 12 years in NPB, Sugano more than meets the requirements (nine years of NPB service) to qualify for international free agency, so he will not be subject to the rules of the posting system.

Sugano, soon to be 35, is an eight-time NPB All-Star, two-time Central League MVP, and two-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award, given out annually to the best starting pitcher in NPB. After collecting his second MVP trophy in 2020, he was posted for MLB clubs and drew interest from several teams, including the Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, and Rangers. However, he did not sign before the deadline, choosing instead to re-up with the Yomiuri Giants on a four-year, $40MM deal. His contract gave him the option to opt out after every season to pursue international opportunities, and following the first year of the deal, he he had enough NPB service time that he would not have been restricted by the posting system. Nevertheless, he decided to stay with the Giants throughout the length of the contract.

One reason Sugano may have decided not to pursue international free agency after the 2021, ’22, or ’23 seasons was his declining performance. He was outstanding in 2020, pitching to a 1.97 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate over 137.1 innings. However, he had ERAs of 3.19, 3.12, and 3.36 the following three years. His strikeout rates slowly declined, while his home run rates shot up. Moreover, injuries limited him to just 77.2 IP in 2023. His performance from 2021-23 wasn’t poor by any means, but it’s understandable why he chose not to sacrifice his guaranteed salary.

The 2024 season marked a return to dominance for the Sugano. Over 156.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA. His 18.3% strikeout rate was lower than it was at his peak – he struck out 24.2% of batters from 2016-20 – but he is finding success in new ways as an older pitcher. His 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was a career-best. His 6.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio was his best since 2016. In addition, he gave up only six home runs to the 608 batters he faced, 0.99% home run rate. That’s the lowest home run rate of his career, and significantly lower than his 2.91% home run rate from 2021-23. As a cherry on top, Sugano also threw three complete games this past season. He hadn’t thrown a single complete game since 2021.

Now that the four-year contract he signed during the 2020-21 offseason is up, Sugano has little reason not to give an MLB career another try. According to reporter Francys Romero, the veteran has hired VC Sports Group to represent him in free agency. The starting pitching market will feature plenty of big names this offseason, including Corbin Burnes, Yusei Kikuchi, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and likely Blake Snell, who has a player option for 2025. Considering his age, Sugano won’t be looking for a long-term contract, so he could represent an interesting alternative for a team that wants to add a potential top-flight starting pitcher on a shorter deal.

Thad Levine Steps Down As Twins GM

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Thad Levine has stepped down from his position as senior vice president and general manager of the Twins, a role he has held since November 2016. The team announced his decision in a press release on Friday morning, explaining, “After eight seasons of significant contributions and leadership, Thad Levine will depart the Minnesota Twins organization to pursue new challenges and opportunities, both inside and outside of baseball.”

The news of Levine’s departure comes just a few days after the Twins confirmed chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli would return in 2025. Levine has been working under Falvey for the past eight years. The pair led the team to three division titles and four playoff appearances between 2017-23, with the 2023 club finally ending the franchise’s 18-game postseason losing streak.

The 2024 campaign ended in disappointment, however, with a 13-27 record over the final 40 games of the season pushing the Twins out of a playoff position and into fourth place in the AL Central. While injuries and underperformance played a big role in the team’s downfall, so did a slow offseason and quiet trade deadline, during which Falvey and Levine did little to improve the club. It’s difficult to say how much of the blame lies with the front office as opposed to ownership, which forced the team to cut payroll. Regardless, it’s not hard to see why Levine was ready to seek new opportunities elsewhere. It’s possible the Twins didn’t want him back either, but the press release presents it as Levine’s decision. Furthermore, one would think that if ownership and executive chairman Joe Pohlad were displeased with the direction of the team, Falvey would be looking for a new job as well. Both Falvey and Levine’s contacts were believed to be expiring at the end of the 2024 season.

Prior to joining the Twins, Levine spent several years as an assistant GM for the Rangers. More recently, he has pursued top decision-making jobs around the league; the Twins gave permission for him to interview with the Phillies in 2020 and the Red Sox in 2023. Other teams that have shown interest in Levine in the past include the Mets and Rockies. Interestingly, however, he ultimately took himself out of the running for all those jobs.

If Levine wants a new job in baseball, it doesn’t seem as if he’d have any trouble landing one. He will surely be a candidate for any “chief decision-maker” openings around the league. It’s less clear if he would be interested in taking on another job where he would only be second-in-command, such as with the Giants. San Francisco is looking for a GM to replace Pete Putila and work under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey. For what it’s worth, the fact that Levine chose to remain underneath Falvey for so long – despite other opportunities – suggests he prioritizes his work environment over his status. Perhaps the Giants’ larger payroll will convince him to give the Bay Area a try.

Reds Hire Terry Francona As Manager

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Today: The Reds made things official on Friday morning, confirming they signed Francona to a three-year contract with a team option for the 2028 season.

October 3: The Reds are hiring Terry Francona as their next manager, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club has not yet confirmed the news, but Feinsand indicates an announcement is expected as soon as tomorrow. Per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Francona’s contract is a three-year deal.

Francona, 65, is among the most decorated managers in the league’s recent history. After a four-year stint managing the Phillies in the late 90s, Francona joined the Red Sox as manager prior to the 2004 season and piloted the club to their curse-breaking World Series championship in 2004. He went on to spend eight seasons in Boston, making the postseason in five of those years (including another World Series championship in 2007) while never posting a below-.500 season. He parted ways with the Red Sox prior to the 2011 season, however, and spent the next year away from managing with four top-5 finishes in AL Manager of the Year voting to his name in addition to a pair of World Series rings.

Terry Francona

He returned to managing just a year after departing Boston, however, and spent the next 11 seasons in Cleveland. Francona’s tenure with the club was nothing short of magnificent, as he piloted the small-market franchise into consistent contention despite considerable payroll restrictions. During Francona’s tenure as manager, Cleveland enjoyed postseason baseball in six seasons while rattling off eight consecutive winning seasons and even reaching Game 7 of the World Series in 2016.

While the club ultimately fell to the Cubs in extra innings and was unable to capture another AL pennant during Francona’s tenure, their 2017 campaign was almost as impressive in some ways as Francona led them through a 22-game win streak that’s the longest in AL history and second only to the 1916 New York Giants’ 26-game win streak in MLB history. Francona’s 11 seasons with Cleveland saw him win three Manager of the Year awards as he captured the honor in 2013, 2016, and most recently in 2022 when he piloted the Guardians to an unlikely AL Central division title and within one game of the club’s first ALCS since 2016.

Francona’s time with the Guardians came to an end when he stepped down following the 2023 season amid long-standing health issues. At the time of his departure from the manager’s chair, Francona indicated to reporters (including those at ESPN) that his priority for 2024 was to “go home and get healthy and see what I miss about the game.” Clearly, the veteran skipper has decided that he misses being at the helm of a big league dugout as he will now return to Ohio as manager of the Reds, his first NL job since departing the Phillies in 2000.

He joins up with Cincinnati following a disappointing season that saw the club take a step back from last year’s 82-80 effort with a 77-85 season despite major breakouts for both star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene. Injuries to key pieces like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand likely played a role in the club’s struggles but whatever hopes the club may have for health-related improvement next year wasn’t enough to convince the front office to retain David Bell, who missed the playoffs in five of his six seasons with the Reds. The club’s managerial search reportedly included younger names such as former Cubs skipper David Ross and departing Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, but the Reds will instead lean on Francona’s decades of experience in order to turn things around for the organization.

With Francona now in place, the Reds have now addressed perhaps the biggest question mark facing them this winter as they look towards the offseason with plenty of other hurdles that will need to be addressed. Chief among those could be their TV revenue situation, as Diamond Sports is reportedly planning to cut ties with the club, which could leave their financial picture uncertain headed into 2025. That’s a frustrating situation for any club, but perhaps especially for a Reds team that already runs among the league’s lower payrolls and figures to lose Nick Martinez to the open market later this winter on the heels of an excellent 2024 campaign that saw him help shore up both the club’s rotation and bullpen throughout the year.

Offseason Outlook Articles Now Part Of Trade Rumors Front Office

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Many of you have noticed that our long-running Offseason Outlook series is now a part of our paid Trade Rumors Front Office service.

I understand this change has been jarring for some, and I apologize for not providing a heads up.  It is a permanent change, and next spring’s Offseason in Review series will be exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers as well.

Our traffic declined in 2023 for the first time in MLBTR’s history, and ad rates have been falling for roughly seven years.  I decided to create Trade Rumors Front Office in 2020 to close the gap on ad revenue that is no longer there.

Requiring a subscription to read the Offseason Outlook series was not a decision I made lightly.  These posts take roughly three hours each to write, and the majority of them receive modest traffic.  The ad revenue on the series was not close to covering the time required to produce it.  I take great pride in our work on the Offseason Outlook series, and I think it’s worth paying for.

We have a couple of other time-consuming major original offseason features  that also don’t pay for themselves, in our arbitration projections and our Top 50 Free Agents list.  I have no current plans to put those behind the paywall.

I think we add a lot of value to news posts as well, particularly on write-ups of major signings and trades.  News posts, which make up the vast majority of MLBTR, remain free.  A portion of our more time-consuming opinion-based analysis has been exclusive to subscribers for over four years now.  Other original work, such as our recent free agent preview by position, remains free to all.

It can be difficult to find a balance and make the math work.  If you’re here strictly for the news, that’s still free.  If you find value in our analysis and tools and have the means, then I hope you’ll consider a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.

I have not raised the price on Trade Rumors Front Office in four-plus years, even as we’ve continually added benefits.  It remains $29.89 per year.  Benefits include:

  • Ad-free browsing experience
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MLBTR is approaching its 19th anniversary in November.  It’s a privilege to do this for a living, and we value everyone who chooses to visit the site.  I intend to continue running MLBTR as an independent small business for as long as possible.  Enjoy the playoffs; we’re hard at work preparing for another exciting offseason!

Orioles General Manager Expects To Have Greater Payroll Capacity

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The Orioles were eliminated from the postseason by the Royals yesterday, sending them into offseason mode. General manager Mike Elias spoke to the members of the media today to address various topics related to the club. Most notably, he said that manager Brandon Hyde would return in 2025, though he was noncommittal about the rest of the coaching staff. Additionally, he said that he is “pretty confident” that payroll will be going up next year. Details were relayed by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link) and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (X link).

It was another good season for Baltimore in a sense, as they won 91 games and made the playoffs for a second consecutive year. On the other hand, it was also disappointing for many fans. The O’s won 101 games in 2023 and had a seemingly endless supply of young talent, which set expectations fairly high coming into 2024. The club was strong for much of the 2024 season but limped to the finish line with 10 fewer wins than the year before, settling for a wild card berth. For a second straight year, they were quickly swept out of the postseason.

The disappointment will naturally lead to some finger pointing, though it seems Elias isn’t placing blame at Hyde’s feet. It’s always tough to discern whether a manager deserves credit and/or blame for a team’s performance and there were certainly things that were beyond the skipper’s control this year.

Rotation injuries were a key storyline for the O’s this year, as each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells each required UCL surgery in June. The club tried to address the rotation at the deadline by acquiring Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. The Eflin pickup worked out well, but Rogers struggled after the jersey swap and waas optioned down to the minors. The rotation issues were further compounded when Grayson Rodriguez hit the shelf with a lat injury in August, which eventually ended his season. Some players also just struggled as the season wore on, with Craig Kimbrel and Adley Rutschman being two prominent examples.

While Hyde’s contributions to the 2024 results can be debated, it seems Elias and the franchise have decided that a new skipper won’t be necessary. The club hasn’t been forthcoming about Hyde’s contractual status. It was reported in April of 2022 that Hyde was under contract beyond that season as part of an extension that was quietly worked out in 2020, but with few details available apart from that. He eventually won American League Manager of the Year honors for the 2023 season and stuck around for 2024. It’s unclear if that 2020 extension is still going or if the two sides have done another deal away from prying eyes, but it seems Hyde will be back in the dugout next year regardless.

Elias and his front office team will be tasked with building a roster that gives Hyde a chance to have a better finish in 2025. There will be some notable subtractions, as the O’s are set to lose ace Corbin Burnes and slugger Anthony Santander to free agency. The departure of Burnes will deprive them of a star who posted a 2.92 ERA over 32 starts, plus eight innings of one-run ball in the playoffs, while Santander’s exit takes a 44-homer bat out of the lineup.

The fact that Elias expects to have more financial resources to supplement the roster is good news, though it’s also not surprising. The Angelos family wasn’t investing much in the club during the final years of their reign. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, 2024 was the sixth straight year in which the club ran a bottom five payroll.

New owner David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club was officially approved by the league at the end of March and it’s generally been expected that he would ramp up spending from those recent low points. The aforementioned Eflin trade was perhaps a positive omen in that regard, as the righty is owed $18MM next year. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Kimbrel’s $13MM one-year pact is the largest deal given out since Elias took over as GM in November of 2018. Adding $18MM to next year’s budget, plus the roughly one third of Eflin’s $11MM salary in 2024 that was still to be paid out, could have been a signal that Rubenstein had signed off on giving Elias more spending power.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Elias is going to go out and spend like the proverbial drunken sailor. “We’ll see what happens,” the GM said in regards to the payroll question, per Jake Rill of MLB.com on X. “We’re going to be smart about it. And if it doesn’t happen for some reason, it’s not going to be because the financial support wasn’t there. It’s going to be because the people running this team thought it was the right thing to do from a number of levels on a case-by-case basis. But I want to reiterate that I don’t expect that to be the case.”

Ultimately, it may be something of a fresh start for Elias and his team. They have seemingly had very little financial resources to work with, which was fine for much of his tenure. He and the club were primarily focused on building a pipeline of young prospects and have succeeded. Just about every outlet has ranked them as having one of the top farm systems in recent years, if not the very top, which has allowed them to fill out their roster with young talent like Rutschman, Bradish, Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday and many more.

Some have argued that Elias should have had more willingness to trade that young talent as the club became competitive in recent years, particularly for more pitching depth that could have helped them overcome their injury woes this season, though perhaps the uncertainty around the club’s future payrolls led to some hesitation to give up cheap and controllable players.

How the new environment will change the club’s behavior will be an interesting offseason storyline. The free agent market will feature a number of big names, with Burnes the top pitcher while star position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others will be available. Suddenly splurging on one of the top names would be a surprise but it should be possible for the O’s if the will is there. Per Cot’s, the club had a payroll as high as $164MM before their recent rebuilding period. They were only at $93MM in 2024 while RosterResource has them committed to just $37MM next year. Arbitration raises and some club options will bring that number up but there should be lots of powder dry if the club decides to be aggressive.

The club still has a fairly strong position player group, even with Santander set to depart, so pitching would be the obvious place to spend. Félix Bautista is expected to return after missing 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. That will bolster the bullpen, but further reinforcements wouldn’t hurt. The rotation without Burnes could feature Eflin, Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Young pitchers like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott could work their way into the mix, while Rogers could get back on track after his disappointing season. Bradish and Wells could get back into the mix by midseason, but Means is slated for free agency.

It seems like Albert Suárez will be an option as well. Though he has far less than six years of service time, players who return from pitching in Japan or Korea often get provisions in their new contracts that allow them to become free agents regardless of service time considerations. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Suárez, even though he pitched in the KBO in 2022 and 2023. Per Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun (X link), Elias said this summer that the O’s would be able to keep him beyond 2024.

There are a number of options there but there’s still an argument for trying to bring back Burnes or another talented starter. Blake Snell is likely to opt out and join Burnes as a former Cy Young winner on the market. Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino and plenty of other notable names will be out there as well. As recently as a year ago, the idea of connecting the Orioles to free agents of that caliber would have been a stretch, but it will seemingly be more plausible going forward.

Brown: Astros May Have To Get “Creative” With Payroll

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The Astros’ incredible run of seven consecutive runs to the American League Championship Series ended yesterday when they ran into a scorching-hot Tigers club helmed by former Houston skipper A.J. Hinch. Although the ’Stros had their shortest season since 2016 and have a number of high-profile free agents coming off the books, general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada both made clear in addressing the team’s beat that there’s no plan to step back. Houston will unsurprisingly take aim at another deep postseason run next year, although the looming offseason could be one punctuated by some tighter-than-usual financial parameters.

“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to – are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”

That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll, however, reveals a similarly ominous setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll around $235MM and finished out the year north of $244MM, per RosterResource. They already have $147MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212MM mark next year before making a single addition.

In the absence of any notable free agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are free agents as well, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.

Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hopes Bregman will return and heaped praise onto the former No. 2 overall pick for not only his on-field contributions but the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.

“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”

Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest in the form of a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.

The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve’s most recent $151MM extension. Josh Hader’s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest in guaranteed money that Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents on this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 name in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.

Hitting the market in advance of his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151MM extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, though Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM with the Rangers) stands as a recent prominent example.

Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman just received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Nationals could be in the market for third base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.

Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240MM of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230MM on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax in the same way it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.

Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other areas of the roster, but they surely won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly’s remaining one year and $14MM could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.

One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).

It’s a group that, as of right now, doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the Wild Card Series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.

Astros Expected To Present Offer To Alex Bregman In Near Future

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Alex Bregman may have played his final game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win completed a sweep that ended Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips at least as far as the American League Championship Series. That’ll push the Astros into offseason mode, where the focus will be on their star third baseman.

Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to present a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a few occasions they’d discuss the contract once the season ended. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement.”

Coming to an agreement is naturally much easier said than done with a free agent of this caliber. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player who’ll hit the market. Unless the Scott Boras client takes a significant hometown discount, retaining him would probably require the biggest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational high was the five-year, $151MM extension for Jose Altuve signed in Spring Training 2018.

That $151MM sum is coincidentally an exact match for the extension which Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s deal was over six years, so the average annual value was lower than that of the Altuve contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will decline a qualifying offer if he gets to free agency. That’ll attach him to draft compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case for Chapman, who could not have received a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year gap in age and the safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above the Chapman price.

The career-long Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, stating that he was focused on the team’s performance. He limited his comments mostly to generalities in the immediate aftermath of being eliminated. Asked whether he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “(hopes) so but (will) let Scott and the team handle that” (X link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He subsequently took to Twitter to thank the city.

A few of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a Boras Corporation client, was particularly strong about the Astros’ need to keep him. “In my mind there is not a chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (relayed on X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He gave a lot to this organization so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make him stay here.” Altuve added that he planned to say as much personally to owner Jim Crane.

Ultimately, whether the Astros re-sign Bregman depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge free agent investment. The Astros were content to let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in previous offseasons. They’re down to their final seasons of arbitration control over Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, both of whom are trending to nine-figure deals. Tucker is on pace to exceed $200MM and could push into the $300MM range with a great walk year.

While Crane has generally been averse to long-term deals, he hasn’t been shy about investing in the team overall. Houston is finishing this year with an approximate $244MM player payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $262MM in luxury tax obligations, putting them into the second tier of penalization.

RosterResource calculates their guaranteed commitments for next season around $133MM. Tucker and Valdez headline one of the priciest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houston’s arbitration group to cost around $58MM. Trades or non-tenders of José Urquidy and Chas McCormick could knock a few million from the ledger, but the Astros will go into the offseason with roughly $185MM in internal commitments.

Beyond the uncertainty at third base, Houston will need to look at the rotation and at first base. The latter was a huge issue all season. Houston’s rotation settled in later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. Injuries seriously tested the depth before they stabilized things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, though, so Houston is likely to bring in some kind of starting pitching help.

The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo took a few at-bats this season, but they’re unproven at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 games of Triple-A experience thus far. Assuming the Diamondbacks pick up their option on Eugenio Suárez, there aren’t any clear regulars available at the position in free agency aside from Bregman.

Diamond Sports Group Planning To Cut Ties With 11 MLB Clubs

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Diamond Sports Group said in court today that it plans to broadcast just one MLB club next year, the Braves, per reporting from Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The company, which owns the Bally Sports Networks, also had deals with the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Rays but plans on walking away from those. As Drellich notes, as part of the company’s ongoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, they can accept and reject contracts though the measures have to be approved by the court. The Brewers, Guardians, Twins and Rangers had one-year deals with Diamond for 2024. Those 11 clubs will now have to renegotiate new deals with Diamond or find other broadcasting arrangements.

Drellich provides some more specifics on X, noting that it’s more complicated than Diamond simply abandoning these 11 clubs, but that seems to be the company’s goal regardless. Alden González of ESPN adds some more details, noting that a confirmation hearing has been set for November 14 and 15 in Houston. The Marlins and Diamond have mutual interest in working out a new deal, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The Angels are working on a new deal with Diamond, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Per Drellich, league representatives said they were “sandbagged” by the news. “We have no information about what is being done,” said Jim Bromley, lawyer for MLB. “We’ve had no opportunity to review and now we’re in front of the court and being asked to make our comments.”

The ongoing financial situation of Diamond Sports Group has been a significant part of baseball’s economic landscape for a long time and this could prove to be a major development as part of that narrative. Largely due to cord cutting, the regional sports network model has been gradually collapsing in recent history. In the 2022-23 offseason, reports emerged that Diamond was in rough shape financially and the company filed for bankruptcy before the 2023 MLB season began.

They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during that 2023 campaign. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs and continued those broadcasts through this year. Now it seems like the company is continuing down this path but with an even more aggressive severing of their existing ties to Major League Baseball.

This is bound to have short-term effects on clubs and players. These contracts have been sources of significant revenue for clubs, as MLBTR covered earlier this year. The 11 teams that Diamond plans to cut ties with were previously receiving between $33MM (Brewers) and $125MM (Angels) on an annual basis. Per reporting in April, the Padres were set to receive about $60MM in 2023 before their deal with Diamond collapsed. The league reportedly covered about 80% of those fees last year but didn’t plan to do so in 2024 and beyond.

Uncertainty around broadcast revenue seemingly played a major role in the 2023-24 offseason, which was disappointing for players. Teams like the Padres, Rangers, Twins and others were either cutting payroll or not increasing it as much as had previously been expected, with the TV situation often being used as justification. This appeared to play a role in various free agents not finding markets as strong as they had anticipated and many of them lingered unsigned into the early months of 2024 and/or signed for deals well below projections. It seems fair to expect that similar narratives could emerge in the coming winter.

Per González, a company source says that Diamond is still hoping to sign new deals with the 11 clubs being cut out today. However, that would presumably involve reduce fee payments, such as those received by the Guardians, Twins and Rangers this year. As mentioned up top, the Marlins and Angels seem to expect to continue their relationship with Diamond/Bally in 2025, though negotiating new deals may take some time.

In the long-term picture, MLB might be happy to be further cutting ties with Diamond. They have continually expressed skepticism about the company’s plans to stay afloat. Diamond has tried various methods of refinancing, including signing a streaming deal with Amazon, but the league hasn’t seemed convinced that any of the company’s plans would lead to long-term stability.

As mentioned, the league has already started selling some games to fans in direct-to-customer fashion. Commissioner Rob Manfred has aspirations of marketing a digital streaming package consisting of several MLB teams, which fans could watch without blackout restrictions. MLB.TV already exists and allows fans to watch most games, but the RSN deals lead to certain teams being blacked out in the areas covered by those deals.

Having less commitment with Diamond going forward will increase the viability of that streaming plan over the years to come. However, as mentioned, less TV revenue figures to have a sizeable impact on the short-term economics of the game. This will lead to ripple effects throughout the upcoming offseason and will likely be worrisome for certain players hitting the open market in the coming weeks. New deals could be negotiated between now and the 2025 season, which could put some money back on the table, though likely less than in previous years.

There is also the matter of the fan experience, as there were times in 2024 where the Braves were not available on TV to some customers during a dispute between Bally’s and Comcast. For fans of these 11 clubs today, they will have to keep an eye on the proceedings to determine if their favorite club will still be accessed in the ways they are accustomed to or if they will have to switch to some new broadcast model.

Marlins Will Not Retain Any Of 2024 Coaching Staff

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1:20pm: Also among the cuts were head athletic trainer Lee Meyer and strength & conditioning coach Brendan Verner, per Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. None of the coaches being dismissed were under contract for the 2025 season, per the report. Still, an overhaul of this magnitude is borderline unprecedented in recent big league history.

11:40am: The Marlins are gutting their coaching staff, as Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reports that the entire staff has been informed it will not return for the 2025 season. Mish notes that there are a couple “exceptions” who have been told there’s some interest in a reunion, but even that’s dependent on the hiring of the incoming manager and any preferences that person may have. Specifically, Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reports that bench coach Luis Urueta and first base/outfield coach Jon Jay have been told there’s interest in a reunion, pending the managerial search. Both will be free to pursue other opportunities in the meantime, however.

All of this aligns with a report last night from Isaac Azout of Fish On First, who tweeted that the Marlins’ firings were being described to him as a “blood bath” that extended to the coaching staff, clubhouse attendants, performance staff and more.

Manager Skip Schumaker already departed the organization over the weekend. His impending exit was one of the worst-kept secrets around the league. The former big league utilityman and Cardinals bench coach was hired by former Marlins GM Kim Ng and won NL Manager of the Year honors last season in his rookie effort. His original two-year contract included an option for the 2025 season. However, after the Marlins hired Rays GM Peter Bendix as their new president of baseball operations, prompting Ng to walk away from the organization. Schumaker reportedly voiced frustration with the club’s direction — understandably so, given last year’s playoff berth — and management agreed to void the 2025 club option on his deal in order to allow him to explore new opportunities.

In addition to Urueta and Jay, today’s news presumably indicates that hitting coach John Mabry, assistant hitting coaches Bill Mueller and Jason Hart, pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr., third base coach Griffin Benedict, infield coach Jody Reed, bullpen coach Wellington Cepeda, bullpen coordinator Rob Flippo and field coordinator Rod Barajas will all be at the very least free to pursue other opportunities, if not dismissed outright.

Among the group, Stottlemyre figures to be a particularly hot commodity on the coaching market. He’s spent a dozen years on big league coaching staffs, serving as both a pitching coach and bullpen coach in addition to prior stints as a minor league pitching coordinator. He’s worked with the D-backs and Mariners organizations in the past but has spent the past seven years as the pitching coach in Miami, building a strong reputation along the way.

While the Marlins have regularly been a doormat in the NL East — with the exception of the 2020 and 2023 seasons — a strong core of touted young pitching has been a hallmark of the team in recent years. Stottlemyre alone isn’t to credit for that, of course, but his influence on the staff and the organization’s pitching development as a whole is clear. Cepeda, it should be noted, has been in lockstep with Stottlemyre throughout his time in the organization. He was hired as the Marlins’ bullpen coach back in 2019. The two have worked alongside one another for seven years.

That’s not to say others on the staff won’t be coveted free agents in their own right. Urueta spent 15 years in the D-backs system, rose to their bench coach under Torey Lovullo, and has interviewed for MLB managerial posts in the past. Mabry and Mueller, in addition to lengthy big league careers, have extensive coaching backgrounds across multiple organizations. Barajas, who also had a lengthy big league career, has served as the bench coach and interim manager of the Padres and has interviewed for various managerial posts in recent years (in addition to several years as a minor league manager in San Diego’s system). Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat speculates that Jay could wind up a target of the Cardinals, for whom he played six MLB seasons — though Jay could also join Schumaker wherever he lands his next managerial assignment.

Broadly speaking, the Miami coaching staff can hardly be faulted for the disastrous record this season. Bendix spent most of the 2023-24 offseason focused on reshaping the baseball operations department and did little to augment the actual Marlins roster. Injuries waylaid much of the pitching staff, and when Miami opened the season with a significant losing streak, the front office wasted little time in waving the white flag. Luis Arraez was traded to San Diego in early May, signaling exactly what type of direction the new baseball ops staff would be taking. No manager or coaching staff could’ve spun the ’24 Marlins into a contender, and other clubs will surely be cognizant of that as they show interest in a wave of newly available coaching talent.

Ross Atkins Will Return As Blue Jays’ General Manager In 2025

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11:00am: Atkins revealed during his own media availability that bench coach and offensive coordinator Don Mattingly will no longer oversee the team’s offense; he’ll fill a “more traditional” bench coach role. Between the change in Mattingly’s role and the reported firing of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez — which Atkins confirmed — the team will conduct an external search to bring in new voice to oversee the team’s offense.

10:15am: Blue Jays team president Mark Shapiro is currently meeting with the media on the heels of a season he described as a “bitter disappointment” and announced that Ross Atkins will return as the team’s general manager for the 2025 season. “There won’t be a change with Ross,” said Shapiro. (Readers can watch the live press conference via Sportsnet.) The 2024 season was Atkins’ ninth season as Toronto’s general manager after spending 14 seasons as an integral part of Cleveland’s player development department. He signed a five-year contract extension covering the 2022-26 seasons back in April of 2021.

This past season was indeed a disaster for the Jays, who finished out the season at 74-88 — last place in the American League East. The Blue Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani in free agency last offseason but added primarily complementary pieces after he signed a ten-year deal with the Dodgers. The Toronto front office inked Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodriguez to multi-year contracts, also adding veterans Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier on one-year deals (Kiermaier’s second one-year pact with the Jays).

Depth proved to be an Achilles heel for the Jays as injuries mounted. Bo Bichette endured multiple IL stints and was limited to half a season’s worth of uncharacteristically feeble production at the plate. Alek Manoah underwent UCL surgery. Closer Jordan Romano pitched just 13 2/3 rough innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery. Top prospects Orelvis Martinez (PED suspension) and Ricky Tiedemann (Tommy John surgery) had lost seasons. Meanwhile, key veterans like Kiermaier, George Springer, Danny Jansen, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza and others turned in performances that were not commensurate with their prior standards. The Jays turned to a host of in-house stopgaps but, particularly in the bullpen, were unable to piece together a serviceable performance.

The end result saw Jansen, Kiner-Falefa, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia and Nate Pearson all traded away in deadline swaps for younger talent. The Jays were universally praised for a strong return on Kikuchi, an impending free agent. However, that’s at best a silver lining when considering the team entered the 2024 campaign looking to build on last year’s Wild Card berth into the playoffs and was viewed as a legitimate contender in a deep AL East division.

Heading into the 2025 season, it’ll be incumbent upon Shapiro and Atkins to engineer an immediate turnaround, lest the calls for changes in leadership grow even louder. Asked about the club’s payroll outlook for the ’25 campaign, Shapiro demurred, calling it “early” to ask such a question and suggesting that next month’s GM Meetings or even December’s Winter Meetings would be a time at which he could offer a clearer answer. For now, the club’s president merely suggested he didn’t anticipate player payroll rising or decreasing in a significant manner.

If that’s indeed the case, Atkins will have his work cut out for him. The Jays entered the 2024 season with a club-record $225MM Opening Day payroll. RosterResource currently pegs them for just shy of $125MM in 2025 commitments, not including an arbitration class projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $61MM in total. Add in a slate of league-minimum players to round out the roster, and the Jays are at just over $194MM. There are some likely non-tenders in this offseason’s class of arbitration-eligible players, but the group is headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his projected $29.6MM salary, with notable paydays projected for Romano ($7.75MM), Daulton Varsho ($7.7MM) and Alejandro Kirk ($4.1MM) as well.

Asked multiple times about Guerrero’s future, Shapiro generally sidestepped the question. The slugger is entering his final season of club control before potentially becoming one of the most coveted free agents in recent memory. Manager John Schneider recently touted Guerrero as a generational talent. Asked today whether he agreed with that assessment, Shapiro questioned the definition of what constitutes a generational player and suggested that it’s tough to say right now, noting that Guerrero has the “potential” to become such a player but implying that such a label can’t be placed on him this early in his career.

Atkins spoke more directly on the matter of Guerrero’s future, suggesting that ownership will provide the support to make long-term commitments to both Guerrero and Bichette. That doesn’t guarantee an extension for either player will happen, of course, and Atkins noted that it’s “difficult” to construct a contract of such magnitude for even one player — let alone two players. Still, he voiced confidence that the Jays can support long-term deals for both and still have the resources needed to build a competitive roster around what would presumably be a pair of substantial contracts.

With regard to the forthcoming offseason, Atkins spoke generally about the need to be “more aggressive” with external additions to the roster than the Blue Jays were this past offseason, specifically in the bullpen. He also called adding a power bat “low-hanging fruit” but also noted that it’s not as simple as adding a pure slugger, citing a need to look at contact ability, on-base skills, and strengths against specific pitch types.

Asked whether the aforementioned Rodriguez and Bowden Francis have pitched well enough to solidify their spots in the rotation next season, Atkins praised both pitchers for the job they did in the season’s second half. The Jays will be in the market for both depth and “impact” starting pitching, per Atkins, but with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Rodriguez and Francis all in the fold, the GM said he feels fortunate to not feel a dire need to be in the market for a top free-agent starter.

The manner in which the Jays will pursue upgrades was left fairly open-ended. Both Atkins and Shapiro spoke favorably of the 13 young players Toronto acquired at this season’s trade deadline. Atkins acknowledged that while many of those players are viewed as potential near-term contributors, that influx of talent into the system also opens the door for potential trades involving some of those same prospects. The Blue Jays will explore both the free agent and trade markets as they look to revamp the roster, but it’s clear from both men’s comments today that the club does not plan to take any kind of step back and will endeavor to put a playoff contender on the field next year. That much has been reported at various points since the deadline, but today’s on-record commitment to such an approach from the team’s top two decision-makers is nevertheless notable.

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