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Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

Mets Meet With Roki Sasaki

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December 20: The Cubs are going to be meeting with Sasaki today, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score.

December 19: The Mets had a meeting with Roki Sasaki on Thursday, reports Andy Martino of SNY. They’re the second team that has been publicly revealed to meet with the NPB star. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) on Wednesday that Sasaki had scheduled an in-person meeting with the club. It’s not clear when that will take place.

Virtually every team would love to land Sasaki. It stands to reason that most, if not all, clubs have at least prepared a pitch they can make to the 23-year-old righty. Sasaki and his representatives at Wasserman presumably don’t intend to meet with every team over the next few weeks, though.

Agent Joel Wolfe spoke with media (including MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams) at the Winter Meetings. Wolfe indicated that Sasaki would speak with teams in person at a central location in the United States throughout this week. He’s slated to return to Japan for the holidays but could come back to the U.S. to view the cities of the finalists thereafter.

This is only the first run of presentations. Many people consider the Dodgers or (to a lesser extent) the Padres to be the favorites, though Wolfe vehemently denied last month that there was any kind of handshake agreement with Los Angeles already in place. Wolfe suggested at the Winter Meetings that Sasaki could benefit from landing in a city that doesn’t have a large media contingent, though he stressed that was solely his opinion and that he and Sasaki had yet to discuss that in great detail.

Sasaki’s posting window opened on December 9. He must sign with an MLB team by January 23 but cannot sign until after next year’s international amateur period opens on January 15. He could reach an unofficial verbal agreement before that point, however. Sasaki’s bonus will be hard capped by MLB’s amateur signing limitations.

Teams can acquire up to 60% of their bonus allotment via trade. Those trades cannot begin until the 15th. Sasaki’s maximum potential bonus would be $12.0888MM. He’ll likely sign for a fair bit less than that, since it’d require a team with the highest initial pool (one of Milwaukee, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Cincinnati, Detroit, or the Athletics) to trade for the maximum amount and commit their entire pool to Sasaki. The Yankees and Mets each have just under $6.2616MM in their starting pool. If they traded for 60% more space, they’d be able to offer just over $10MM.

Christian Walker Reportedly Seeking Four-Year Deal

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Christian Walker has been a popular target in free agency thus far in the offseason, drawing interest not only from the incumbent Diamondbacks but also the Yankees, Mariners, Astros and Nationals, among other clubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that interested teams have been unwilling to extend their offers beyond three years but that Walker’s camp “would love to get a fourth year.”

Widespread interest in Walker is only logical. He’s been among the most underrated players in the sport for several seasons. The 33-year-old slugger’s .251/.335/.468 slash from 2024 is a near mirror image of the broader .253/.332/.464 line he carries in nearly 3200 plate appearances dating back to 2019. At the time, it would’ve seemed utterly nonsensical to think that the Diamondbacks would be able to successfully replace perennial All-Star Paul Goldschmidt with a journeyman waiver claim, but Arizona did just that and has been rewarded handsomely.

Not only has Walker been consistently productive at the plate — 13% better than average overall, including 20% better over the past three seasons — he’s emerged as one of the game’s best defenders at his position. Walker has won three straight Gold Gloves for his work at first base. Walker’s 33 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons lead all big league first baseman by a wide margin. Matt Olson is second, at 27. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting Walker with 39 Outs Above Average — nearly double that of second-ranked Carlos Santana (20). He’s made only eight errors since 2022.

Quietly excellent as Walker has been, however, a four-year deal is a lofty ask when considering his age. He’ll turn 34 in March. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, only four position players in the past decade have secured a four-year deal beginning in their age-34 season or later: Josh Donaldson (four years, $92MM with the Twins), Ben Zobrist (four years, $56MM with the Cubs), Nelson Cruz (four years, $57MM with the Mariners) and Victor Martinez (four years, $68MM with the Tigers. Donaldson’s deal, now almost five years old, is the most recent of the bunch. Of the four, only Cruz’s contract played out well.

Suffice it to say, four years would break any recent precedent for a position player of this age. Speculatively speaking, he could go the route some other veterans have in the past to secure the additional years they seek on longer-term deals: throw in (in this instance) the fourth year at a discounted rate. General expectations for Walker have been that he’ll command something in the vicinity of $20MM per year. If he were to tack on a fourth year at, say, $8-10MM, that’d get him his fourth season and also lower the luxury-tax hit for the signing club. For many of Walker’s reported suitors, that won’t be a factor, as they’re not CBT payors anyhow. For a team like the Yankees or Astros, it could prove significant.

Walker’s asking price is likely one of the reasons that the Yankees “appear increasingly likely to go with a more inexpensive option at first base,” as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The others include the qualifying offer that’d cost them an additional two draft picks (after already punting two for Max Fried) and the plethora of options available on the free agent market  (Santana, Justin Turner, Goldschmidt) and trade market (Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Nathaniel Lowe).

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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The potential for a Nolan Arenado trade has been one of the most persistent storylines of the 2024-25 offseason, and Arenado surged into the spotlight yesterday when it was reported that he invoked his no-trade clause to quash a deal that would’ve sent him to the Astros.

Further details on the matter, unsurprisingly, have continued to leak out today and presumably will in the days and weeks ahead. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that while Arenado vetoed the potential deal to Houston, the Cardinals and Astros will continue to negotiate and an eventual deal remains possible. Of further note, while there’s been plenty of talk regarding the number of teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, Goold suggests that the third baseman has not at any point submitted a formal list of such teams to the Cardinals. Around five teams have spoken with the Cardinals about a trade, per the report.

The lack of a firm list could potentially be due to the fact that Arenado’s willingness to approve a trade to another club is context-dependent. Agent Joel Wolfe made clear at last week’s Winter Meetings that Arenado’s goal is to land with a clear win-now team that will continue to pursue a World Series title for the balance of the three years remaining on his contract. A team’s offseason dealings can impact the perception of whether they’re a true long-term contender.

Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic report that, somewhat ironically, the very same move that in some regards paved the way for Houston’s pursuit of Arenado might’ve reduced his willingness to go there: the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. For a player seeking a perennial win-now atmosphere, a team simultaneously trading its best player and balking at re-signing a franchise cornerstone (Alex Bregman) logically raises some red flags. Woo and Rome write that Arenado wants to further see how the third-base market plays out before making any kind of decision, with Bregman’s eventual landing spot being one potential factor.

If that sounds counterintuitive, consider that Arenado could be viewed as something of a “Plan B” for teams with interest in Bregman. Bregman has been linked to both the Yankees and Red Sox, for instance. Either could hold appeal to Arenado, speculatively speaking, but they may choose not to ramp up their pursuit until Bregman is off the table. Revisiting the talks with Houston could also occur if Bregman signs elsewhere.

MLB.com’s John Denton appeared on 101 ESPN’s BK and Ferrario Show in St. Louis this morning and touched on the Arenado saga as well. He echoed many of the same points made in those reports and in his own reporting in helping break the no-trade development yesterday, but he added the wrinkle that Arenado is still holding out hope for a potential match with the Dodgers.

While Dodgers brass has publicly indicated that Max Muncy will be the team’s third baseman next season, Denton suggested some gamesmanship in those comments and reports that the Dodgers still have some interest in Arenado. It’s hard to see how that’d work with Muncy in the fold, Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani locked in at designated hitter.

Muncy would make a pricey and overqualified bench player. He’s a highly affordable starter at third, owed $12MM this year with a $10MM club option for 2026. Muncy doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but the 2023-24 version of Arenado isn’t a clear upgrade overall — certainly not when Muncy has been the superior hitter. Muncy’s .232/.358/.494 slash in 2024 (135 wRC+) outpaces Arenado’s .272/.325/.394 output (102 wRC+) — higher batting average for Arenado notwithstanding. Those roadblocks aside, Denton feels the Dodgers aren’t entirely out of the question and that Arenado isn’t likely to approve a deal anywhere “until the Dodgers tell him no to his face.”

There were clearly many factors that went into Arenado’s decision to utilize his no-trade provision, but regardless of the specifics, the scratched Houston deal leaves the Cards in limbo. They’d like to open third base playing time for younger players (e.g. Nolan Gorman, perhaps Jordan Walker) and are simultaneously hopeful of scaling back payroll ahead of next year’s player development-focused “reset” year.

Trading Arenado would’ve done just that, particularly with the Astros apparently willing to foot the majority of the bill. Woo and Rome indicate that Houston was willing to cover around $45MM of Arenado’s deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears differently, reporting that the Astros were willing to cover a heftier $59MM of the $74MM remaining on the contract. That’s on top of the $10MM the Rockies are covering under the terms of their prior deal. In essence, it seems the Cardinals would’ve only been on the hook for anywhere from $5-19MM in total — as compared to the $64MM they currently owe Arenado ($12MM of which is deferred). Woo and Rome write that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is “facing pressure from ownership” to further reduce payroll.

Taking a step further back, Arenado’s various reported reasons for saying no to the Astros — at least for the time being — suggest we may not get resolution on his trade candidacy anytime soon. If Arenado is waiting to see both whether the Dodgers make a serious push and to see where Bregman lands (perhaps opening the door for a match with an AL East contender), then the Cardinals’ hands are tied to an extent. Passan writes that the Houston veto could push the Cards to show willingness to eat more of the contract, thus bringing in additional suitors. Even in that scenario, the ball would be squarely in Arenado’s court, and if he’s willing to wait out several related market factors, this saga could drag on for some time.

In that scenario, the Cardinals might well be forced to look into other ways they could shed some payroll. Steven Matz ($12MM), Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) and Ryan Helsley (projected $6.9MM) are among the other short-term veterans on the roster who don’t hold the same no-trade provisions that Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Miles Mikolas hold. Both Contreras and Gray have reportedly told the Cardinals that they prefer to stay in St. Louis and do not plan to waive their no-trade rights.

Blue Jays Had Shown Interest In Cody Bellinger

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After weeks of discussion between the Cubs and Yankees, Cody Bellinger landed in the Bronx. Before that was finalized, the Mariners and Astros were among the teams that had been loosely tied to the former MVP in trade rumors.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported just after the Bellinger trade that the Blue Jays had also been involved in talks with Chicago. It looks as if Toronto ended as the runner-up. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters this afternoon that the Cubs had narrowed it down to two teams and decided they would pull the trigger on an offer by Tuesday (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “If we didn’t pull him down, he would’ve been off the board,” Cashman added. While the GM declined to identify the other team, reading between the lines makes it seem that the Jays finished in second.

Toronto has had longstanding interest in Bellinger. They were involved in his free agent bidding in each of the last two winters. In both cases, they watched him sign with Chicago instead. This time around, he’s headed to a divisional competitor. The Yankees sent depth starter Cody Poteet to the Cubs in a one-for-one swap. Toronto could certainly have made a more compelling offer in terms of prospect talent, but it seems they didn’t want to match the Yankees financially.

New York agreed to assume $47.5MM of the $52.5MM remaining on Bellinger’s contract. There haven’t been any details about how much Toronto would’ve been willing to commit. The Cubs’ biggest goal was shedding as much of the deal as possible. Bellinger looked like the odd man out in Chicago even before they acquired Kyle Tucker. That blockbuster trade made a Bellinger move inevitable.

The Jays have taken on big money in one trade this offseason. They absorbed the remaining five years and $96.5MM on the Andrés Giménez contract in their Winter Meetings deal with the Guardians. While Toronto has been tied to almost every free agent of note, their only MLB signing thus far is a two-year deal to reunite with middle reliever Yimi García.

Outfield remains a clear weakness. George Springer is coming off a .220/.303/.371 showing in his age-34 season. Daulton Varsho is expected to begin the season on the injured list after undergoing a rotator cuff repair in his right shoulder. He’ll be the everyday center fielder upon his return. Varsho is one of the game’s best defenders, but he’s been a roughly league average hitter when healthy. Any lingering effects from the shoulder issue could push him toward the bottom third of the lineup. Their in-house options to play left field (e.g. Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase) have limited MLB experience.

The Jays need at least one everyday outfielder. There’s an argument that they need to acquire regulars in both corners to push Springer into a limited role. Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are the biggest remaining bats in the free agent outfield class. Both players declined qualifying offers. Jurickson Profar, who did not receive the QO, is coming off a fantastic season. Max Kepler, Jesse Winker and Austin Hays are among potential rebound candidates.

Yankees Notes: Williams, Loaisiga, Bellinger, Trevino

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It’s been a frenetic week-plus for the Yankees, who over the past ten days have watched Juan Soto sign with the Mets and quickly pivoted to bring lefty Max Fried, closer Devin Williams and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger into the fold. There’s still more on the Yankees’ short-term to-do list, but Williams also offered a glimpse at a potential conversation that could be had in the coming months. Asked by the YES Network’s Jack Curry about the possibility of signing a long-term contract in the Bronx, Williams replied that it’s “definitely an option.” As it stands, he’s heading into his final season of club control before free agency.

Williams has been one of the game’s most dominant relievers since making his debut. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year ranks in the top-three of all big league pitchers (min. 200 innings) in both ERA (1.83, second) and strikeout rate (39.4%, third) since coming into the league.

Detractors might point to Williams surrendering what was effectively a season-ending home run to Pete Alonso against the Mets in the NLDS, but it’s rare for the righty to falter in that manner. Since 2020, his first full big league season, no pitcher in baseball has a higher win probability added than Williams. He’s been placed into 138 save/hold situations in his career and only blown the opportunity 10 times. Broadly speaking, Williams has done his best work in high-leverage spots, that lasting memory from the ’24 postseason notwithstanding.

A pitcher with Williams’ stuff and track record should have the opportunity to command one of the largest deals ever for a reliever next winter — provided he maintains that standard in his first season with the Yankees. Williams will pitch nearly all of this season at 30 years of age, turning 31 in September. Age and perhaps some health questions — he missed three months in 2024 with multiple stress fractures in his back — might keep him from quite reaching the same heights that Edwin Diaz (five years, $102MM) and his former teammate Hader (five years, $95MM) reached in free agency. Diaz was 29 in the first year of his contract. Hader was 30.

Still, Williams could reasonably expect to command at least four years, if not five, and he’d be able to push into the rarefied air of $16-20MM average annual values for relievers that have only been attainable for the game’s truly elite stoppers over the past few years. Diaz, Hader, Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are the only relievers to command multi-year deals with AAVs of $16MM or more.

Whether the two sides will actually get into serious negotiations is an open question, but Williams’ ostensible openness is of some note. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in his final arbitration this coming season, and one would presume he and his reps at Klutch Sports are eyeing an annual salary of $18MM or more for his free agent seasons. It’d be a costly endeavor, but the Yankees have been willing to make huge commitments to the bullpen in the past (e.g. Chapman, Zack Britton).

Elsewhere in the Yankee bullpen is another potentially dominant arm: righty Jonathan Loaisiga. The Yanks more quietly re-signed the Nicaraguan-born righty this month. He’s currently eight months removed from an internal brace procedure to repair a UCL tear in his right elbow. Pitching coach Matt Blake told reporters today, including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, that the aim is for Loaisiga to be back in the Yankees’ big league bullpen by late April or early May.

The 30-year-old Loaisiga has only reached 50 innings in one big league season but has been excellent when healthy enough to take the ball. Dating back to 2020, the oft-injured righty sports a 2.98 ERA with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but a strong 6.5% walk rate and an elite 58% ground-ball rate. Since largely shelving his four-seamer in favor of a sinker, Loaisiga has averaged a blazing 98.1 mph on that sinker, also employing a changeup to help keep lefties off balance. It seems the current expectation is for Loaisiga to open the season on the injured list, but it may not be a particularly lengthy stay, based on the current trajectory of his rehab.

Of course, the headline-grabbing news of the week in the Bronx — beyond finalizing their eight-year deal with Fried and introducing him at a press conference today — was the Yankees’ completion of a trade to bring Bellinger to the Bronx. Rumors of talks between the Yankees and Cubs were plentiful, particularly once Soto signed with the Mets. The two teams finally lined up on a deal yesterday afternoon.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted not long after the trade that the Yankees had informed Bellinger he’ll be utilized in center field. General manager Brian Cashman pushed back on that today following the Fried presser (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that there’s no firm decision on Bellinger’s defensive home. He could play any of center field, left field or first base for the Yankees next season, and that decision will be contingent on what the Yankees are able to accomplish throughout the remainder of the offseason. FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar adds that manager Aaron Boone spoke to Bellinger last night, and Bellinger informed his new skipper he’s open to playing wherever needed.

That flexibility, plus the flexibility provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s ability to play multiple spots, leaves Cashman a vast array of possibilities for the remainder of the offseason. The Yankees are reportedly intrigued by several free agent first basemen but could look to the outfield market and also have other areas of depth from which they could trade. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com suggests that catcher Jose Trevino, for instance, could find himself on the trade block in the weeks ahead.

There’s been some speculation that the Yankees could deal from their catching depth this winter, and they’ve already moved one of the five catchers they had on their 40-man roster, sending Carlos Narvaez to the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher and some international bonus pool space. With Austin Wells emerging as the starter behind the plate and backstops J.C. Escarra and Jesus Rodriguez joining Trevino on the 40-man roster, there’s still a good bit of depth. (That doesn’t even include catcher/first baseman Ben Rice, or catching prospect Rafael Flores, who’s not on the 40-man but just had a big season in Double-A.)

To be clear, there’s no indication that Trevino is expressly being shopped. But catching depth is always at a premium around the league, and this offseason’s market is particularly thin. The Yankees are a surefire luxury payor, and while Trevino’s projected $3.4MM salary (again, via Swartz) isn’t excessive, moving him could cut the Yankees’ spending by around $7MM after accounting for the CBT.

The 32-year-old Trevino hit just .215/.288/.354 in 234 plate appearances last year but graded out as a plus-plus defender. The 2022 Platinum Glove winner is a free agent after the season, and with a wealth of young catching options in Wells, Escarra, Rodriguez and Flores, it’d be understandable if the Yanks leveraged that depth by moving Trevino for some bullpen help or depth in another area of need.

MLBTR Podcast: Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Yankees Acquire Cody Bellinger

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The long-awaited Cody Bellinger trade has arrived. The Yankees and Cubs announced a trade sending Bellinger and cash considerations to the Bronx in exchange for right-hander Cody Poteet. Chicago is reportedly paying down $5MM of the $52.5MM remaining on Bellinger’s contract. They’ll pay $2.5MM of next season’s $27.5MM salary and send another $2.5MM in 2026 — either covering a portion of his $25MM salary for that season or paying half of the $5MM buyout if he opts out of his contract next winter. New York reportedly plans to use Bellinger as a center fielder.

Bellinger heading to the Bronx is a logical fit and it has been in plenty of rumors recently. At the start of the offseason, the Yankees lost Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo to free agency, opening up two holes in their outfield and one at first base. Since Bellinger has played both the outfield and at first, the 29-year-old was seen as a possible fit for their 2025 plans in various ways. The Yanks pursued Soto for a long time but he eventually landed with the Mets, pushing the Yankees to several backup plans. They have since signed left-hander Max Fried and acquired right-hander Devin Williams to upgrade their rotation and bullpen.

For the Cubs, Bellinger has seemed expendable for a few reasons. On the one hand, Pete Crow-Armstrong emerged as a viable glove-first center fielder in 2024, which was Bellinger’s primary spot the year before. Michael Busch also took over the first base spot. With Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki in the outfield corners, Bellinger was a bit squeezed. The Cubs only compounded the problem when they acquired Kyle Tucker from the Astros.

However, beyond the roster crunch, the Cubs were also likely motivated to move Bellinger due to his decline in performance. After some rough years with the Dodgers while recovering from shoulder surgery, the Cubs took a bounceback flier on Bellinger in 2023. After being non-tendered by the Dodgers, the Cubs gave Bellinger a $17.5MM guarantee on a one-year pact, hoping he could get over his injury woes and return to being the player that won Most Valuable Player in 2019.

He didn’t get all the way back to that level but was still great value for that investment. He stole 20 bases and hit 26 home runs. He only struck out 15.6% of the time. The reviews of his center field defense were mixed but were mostly close to league average. He also moved to first base on occasion. He slashed .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ and produced 4.4 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Perhaps the Cubs would have been happy to walk away at that point. They gave Bellinger a qualifying offer and didn’t seem to have a very high motivation to re-sign him, but nor did any other clubs, as Bellinger remained unsigned through late February. Eventually, he and the Cubs agreed to a three-year, $80MM deal with opt-outs after each season.

On that kind of deal, the best case scenario for the club is that the player performs well and then opts out. If the player doesn’t opt out, it means he doesn’t like his prospects in free agency, which likely means he got hurt or underperformed.

Bellinger’s production did indeed slip relative to 2023, though it wasn’t disastrous. He stole nine bases and hit 19 home runs. His strikeout rate held steady at 15.6%. He slashed .266/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 109. His center field defense was still graded as around league average but he spent less time there due to the aforementioned emergence of Crow-Armstrong. He produced 2.2 fWAR, half of the year before.

Going into the offseason, it was a borderline call as to whether Bellinger would opt out or not. He could have taken the $2.5MM buyout and taken his chances, leaving a $52.5MM guarantee on the table. While he may have been able to beat the $50MM difference this winter, he decided to stay, perhaps due to the way the current contract is allocated. He will make $27.5MM in 2025 with a $5MM buyout on his $25MM for 2026. There’s a best-case scenario for him personally where he plays better in 2025 and then takes the second opt-out, returning to the open market with greater earning power, pocketing $32.5MM in the process. He decided that was more attractive than opting out this year.

It seems fair to conclude that the Cubs would have rather he opted out. Trade rumors surrounding Bellinger have been flying all offseason and now the Cubs have moved on from him, mostly for salary relief. By taking on the majority of that salary, the Yankees haven’t had to give up much, though there is financial risk and the deal has more downside than upside.

If Bellinger plays especially well in 2025, he will trigger that opt-out. That will leave the Yankees having paid him $27.5MM for one year, which is the best-case scenario for them at this point. Though if he doesn’t play well or finishes the upcoming season with a notable injury, he will stay on their books for 2026, with the Yanks on the hook for $22.5MM of his $25MM salary.

The Yankees are also repeat luxury tax payors, which will add to what they are paying Bellinger. If they end up above the highest threshold as they did in 2024, then they are slated for a 110% tax on spending over the top line, so any new additions to the roster effectively cost double. That compounds the risk they are taking with Bellinger but the same would be true if they had instead opted to sign a free agent or acquire another player making a notable salary.

Bellinger has been a very streaky player in his career, so it’s anyone’s guess which of those outcomes is more likely in the upcoming year. As mentioned, he’s shown MVP upside but followed that up with a stretch so bad that he was non-tendered. He roared back in 2023 but dipped a bit in 2024.

All that being said, it’s understandable why the Yankees would be interested in taking this risk. The free agent market features outfielders like Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander, but they will likely end up with larger guarantees than Bellinger. Santander is reportedly looking for a five-year deal and Hernández three, each likely hoping for an average annual value of $20MM or more.

They are also both bat-first guys with poor defense, whereas Bellinger is capable of being a strong defender in an outfield corner or perhaps passable in center. The Yanks played Aaron Judge in center a lot in 2024 while using Verdugo and Soto in the corners, though it seems that Judge is now slated to return to right field. That’s a sensible pivot since Judge’s marks were poor this year and he’s about to turn 33, meaning the long-term toll on his body would have to be considered. The Yankees may have continued to have Judge up the middle if they had re-signed Soto but after he signed with the Mets, it was reported the the club was planning to move Judge back to right and have Jasson Domínguez get a crack at the center field job.

Now that they have landed Bellinger, it seems he is Plan A for center. As mentioned, the advanced metrics have been a bit split on his viability there. In over 4,000 innings, he has been credited with 10 Defensive Runs Saved. However, most of that positive value came earlier in his career with the Dodgers. He’s been average or below for four straight years now. Outs Above Average, however, is far more bullish. That metric has given Bellinger a grade of +19 in his career, having him at par or better in every season of his career.

Perhaps there’s a scenario where Domínguez seems like the better option and pushes Bellinger to a corner, but there’s no guarantee he will be a capable big leaguer in 2025 at all. He tore through the minors and then debuted with a splash in 2023, but he then required Tommy John surgery late that year, which put him on the shelf for a decent chunk of 2024. He then missed more time this year due to an oblique strain and has only appeared in 26 big league games at this point. He will likely still get a shot at taking the left field job next to Bellinger and Judge but isn’t guaranteed anything, with guys like Everson Pereira and Spencer Jones around to give him some competition.

The Yanks didn’t have many other options if they wanted to find a solution for center field. The free agent market is arguably led by glove-first Harrison Bader, who they weren’t likely to sign anyway after a bad experience trading for him in 2022. The trade market has other options such as Luis Robert Jr., though all reports have indicated the White Sox are setting a high asking price even though Robert is coming off yet another injury-marred season.

It’s also possible that they change their plans, depending on how the rest of the offseason plays out. They reportedly have interest in various first base options, such as trade candidates Josh Naylor or Nathaniel Lowe, as well as free agents Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt. But if they can’t complete a deal they like there, they could always pivot back to Hernández and/or Santander or some other outfielder, sending Bellinger to first base in that scenario.

For the Cubs, they are likely happy to get the majority of Bellinger’s salary off their books but also take a flier on Poteet. The 30-year-old has 83 innings of major league experience at this point between the Marlins and Yankees, missing the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound in 2024 but also missed about three months due to a right triceps strain.

He tossed 24 1/3 innings in the majors this year over four starts and one relief appearance. He allowed 2.22 earned runs per nine with a 16.7% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate. He also made ten Triple-A starts with a 3.92 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 40.7% ground ball rate.

The Cubs already have a solid rotation mix consisting of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad. They’ve been connected to Jesús Luzardo in recent rumors and also have Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Cade Horton in the mix. Poteet still has options and can slot in as Triple-A depth for the Cubs.

Financially, RosterResource now has the Cubs with a competitive balance tax calculation of $192MM, almost $50MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. They went a bit over the line in 2024 but it’s unclear if they are willing to do so again in 2025. It’s also unclear if they have any other big moves planned now that they have added Tucker and Boyd. The bullpen could certainly use some upgrades but the club has generally shied away from big splashes there.

RR puts the Yankees at a $270MM payroll and a luxury tax calculation of $292MM. They had a payroll around $300MM last year and therefore still have a bit of wiggle room for other moves if they are willing to get to a similar level next year. The top tier of the tax starts at $301MM next year, so they are not far from getting up to that 110% tax rate, but are already at a 95% rate at their current level.

They are still on the lookout for help at the infield corners, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. likely slated to be moved from third to second base, though adding a second baseman and keeping Chisholm at third is also a possibility. Perhaps a trade of Marcus Stroman could help in multiple ways, as he is making a notable salary and arguably surplus to requirements in the rotation.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Bellinger and cash were going to the Yankees for Poteet. Jack Curry of YES Network first had the $5MM total. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that it was split into $2.5MM per year while Passan added that the second half would be coming regardless of the opt-out decision. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Bellinger has been told he’ll be playing center field for the Yanks.

Yankees, Colten Brewer Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees have agreed to a minor league deal with righty Colten Brewer, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The ISE client will be back for a second stint with the Yankees and will receive an invite to big league camp next spring.

Brewer, 32, pitched 8 1/3 innings with the Yankees in 2023 and spent the bulk of that season with their Triple-A affiliate. He spent the 2024 campaign with the Cubs, pitching 20 2/3 innings with a grim 5.66 ERA but a more encouraging 23.2% strikeout rate versus a 9.5% walk rate. The 6’4″ righty has pitched in parts of six big league seasons for four teams, compiling 120 innings of 5.10 ERA ball.

Though Brewer doesn’t have a standout MLB track record, he’s been solid in parts of seven Triple-A seasons, working 164 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. He averaged 94.3 mph on his heater this past season and, like many Yankees pitching targets, has shown a repeated penchant for inducing ground-balls. Just over half the batted balls put into play against Brewer in his big league career have been grounders (50.1%).

With the exception of an uncharacteristic six homers in 25 2/3 innings in 2020, Brewer has done a good job of both keeping the ball in the yard and avoiding hard contact. He yielded just a 31.9% hard-hit rate in Triple-A this past season and an even stingier 28.3% mark with the Yankees in 2023. Overall, Brewer was excellent with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2023, recording 20 2/3 innings of 1.80 ERA ball for the Yankees’ top affiliate that year. He parlayed that success into a run with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan but returned stateside this past season.

Obviously, Brewer’s minor league deal is far from the most impactful Yankees news of the day. However, he’ll give the Yanks an experienced reliever with a nice Triple-A track record and plenty of grounders to stash in the upper minors. Brewer has pitched in six of the past seven MLB seasons — 2022 being the lone exception — and ought to be in line for a call should the Yankees need an extra arm in the event of injuries and/or a stretch that heavily taxes the big league bullpen.

Yankees Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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The Cubs have seemingly been trying to trade first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger for weeks, with the Yankees the club most often connected to Bellinger. Recent reports have suggested that the two clubs have been facing a gap in negotiations, however. It was reported over the weekend by Jon Heyman of The New York Post that the Yankees were considering various alternatives, which was echoed this afternoon by Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Heyman’s report from the weekend suggested that the Yankees were considering trade candidates like Josh Naylor of the Guardians and Nathaniel Lowe of the Rangers, as well as free agents Pete Alonso, Christian Walker or Carlos Santana. Nightengale’s framing is similar, saying that the Yankees are engaged with those three free agents as well as Paul Goldschmidt.

Those free agents will all come with very different price points, mostly due to age. Alonso is easily the youngest at 30 years old. Walker will turn 34 in March, Goldschmidt is 37 and Santana turns 39 in April. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Alonso for a five-year, $125MM deal, with Walker at $60MM over three years and Goldschmidt projected for $15MM on a one-year pact. Santana wasn’t mentioned after signing with the Twins for $5.25MM via a one-year deal last winter, though he could earn a raise after a strong 2024 season.

The Yankees still have several moving pieces in their offseason, so their first base move will come in conjunction with moves elsewhere. They also need a left fielder and one more infielder, likely a third baseman with Jazz Chisholm Jr. moving to second base, though adding at the keystone is also a possibility. Further bullpen moves could also be considered while the rotation arguably still has a surplus, even after the Yanks got Devin Williams for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin.

For those various openings, they have been connected to guys like Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Bellinger and others, as well as these various first base candidates. How much they spend on one spot could naturally have an impact on how much they spend on another. RosterResource currently projects the club for a payroll of $245MM next year, while they were in the $300MM range in 2024.

Goldschmidt will likely be relatively affordable compared to Alonso or Walker, at least in terms of contract length. Given his age and recent downturn in performance, he’s likely looking at a one-year deal. He won National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 by hitting 35 home runs and slashing .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+, but he’s fallen off since.

Last year, it was 25 home runs, a .268/.363/.447 batting line and 122 wRC+. In 2024, he hit 22 homers with a .245/.302/.414 slash and 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average at the plate for the year. Apart from his rookie debut in 2011, his walk and strikeout rates were both career worsts in 2024, coming in at 7.2% and 26.5% respectively.

Given his age, those could be taken as signs of the start of a decline, though there’s perhaps some optimism to be found in his strong finish. He produced a line of .230/.291/.373 and an 87 wRC+ in the first half of 2024, then a .271/.319/.480 line and 120 wRC+ in the latter half. Either way, he shouldn’t be able to secure a massive payday this winter, but there’s also more risk with him than with someone like Alonso or Walker.

The Yankees will presumably be weighing all these different options as they decide where to put their resources. There’s nothing to say that they can’t get Bellinger and a free agent first baseman, as Bellinger could be slotted into left field, though the Yanks have other options there if they can’t line up with the Cubs on a trade.

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