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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/22/24

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The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Throughout the day, we’ll surely see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day/evening as deals are announced and/or reported.

  • The Mets announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, though salary figures have not yet been reported. He was projected for a $900K salary next year after posting a 1.66 ERA but in just 21 2/3 innings due to injury.
  • The Rangers announced they avoided arbitration with right-hander Josh Sborz, who was projected for a $1.3MM salary next year. He’ll come in just shy of that at $1.1MM, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). He underwent a shoulder debridement procedure recently, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and will likely miss the first two or three months of 2025.
  • The Tigers and infielder Andy Ibanez have agreed to a salary of $1.4MM next year, per Francys Romero (X link). That’s a shade below his $1.5MM projection. Ibanez hit .241/.295/.357 in 99 games for the Tigers in 2024.
  • The Guardians avoided arbitration with right-hander Ben Lively, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). He’ll make $2.25MM next year, below his $3.2MM projection. Lively had a 3.81 ERA in 151 innings for the Guards this year.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Julian Merryweather have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.225MM, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN (X link). That’s just shy of his $1.3MM projection. Merryweather had a 6.60 ERA in 2024 but was injured most of the time and only made 15 appearances. He had a solid 3.38 ERA the year prior in 72 innings. The Cubs also agreed to terms with catcher Matt Thaiss and righty Keegan Thompson, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link), though salary figures have not yet been reported.
  • The Blue Jays got a deal done with right-hander Erik Swanson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X. The righty was projected for $3.2MM next year but will make a smidge less than that, with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X link) relaying that Swanson will make $3MM. He had a 5.03 ERA in 2024 but was at 2.97 the year prior and also finished this year strong, with a 2.55 ERA in the second half.
  • The Yankees reached agreement with center fielder Trent Grisham on a $5MM salary, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN (on X). The deal contains another $250K in incentives. The two-time Gold Glove winner had been projected at $5.7MM. Grisham had an underwhelming .190/.290/.385 showing during his first season in the Bronx. The Yankees will nevertheless keep him around for his final year of arbitration, presumably in a fourth outfield capacity. The Yankees also announced that they have a deal with righty JT Brubaker, though figures haven’t been reported. He was projected for a salary of $2.275MM, the same figure he made in 2023 and 2024, two seasons he missed while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Rockies reached deals with outfielder Sam Hilliard and lefty reliever Lucas Gilbreath, Feinsand reports (on X). Hilliard gets $1MM, while Gilbreath signed for $785K. Both figures come in shy of the respective $1.7MM and $900K projections. Hilliard popped 10 home runs over 58 games as a depth outfielder. Gilbreath only made three appearances after missing the entire ’23 season to Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.19 ERA across 43 innings two years ago.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have agreed to a $5.4MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link), an exact match for his projection. He had signed a two-year, $6.65MM deal to cover the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He made 20 starts for the Dodgers in the first year of that pact but he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Guardians and Sam Hentges have agreed to a $1.337MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. That’s right in line with his projected $1.4MM salary. The left-hander has been an effective reliever for Cleveland over the past three seasons (2.93 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 138 IP), but he missed the latter half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. After undergoing surgery in September, he will miss the entire 2025 season.
  • The Orioles and infielder Emmanuel Rivera agreed to a $1MM deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at $1.4MM. He hit .238/.312/.343 this year.
  • Right-hander Brock Stewart and the Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth $870K, MLBTR has learned. He’d been projected at $800K. Stewart, who missed much of the season due to injury, can earn another $30K via incentives. He’s been lights-out for the Twins when healthy over the past two seasons (2.28 ERA, 33.5 K%, 10.8 BB%). Minnesota and righty Michael Tonkin also agreed to a $1MM deal, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d been projected at $1.5MM. The Twins later announced that they had reached deals with Stewart, Tonkin and righty Justin Topa. Hewas projected for $1.3MM next year but will come in just shy of that in terms of guarantee. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune (Bluesky link), it’s a $1.225MM guarantee in the form of a $1MM salary and then a $225K buyout on a $2MM club option for 2026.
  • The Padres and Tyler Wade agreed to a one-year deal worth $900K, Heyman tweets. There’s a club option for an additional season. Wade, who hit .217/.285/.239 in 2024, was projected for that same $900K figure.
  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and the Reds settled on a one-year deal at $2.4MM, Heyman tweets. That’s well shy of his $4MM projection and actually represents a slight pay cut after Espinal hit .246/.295/.356 for Cincinnati.
  • The Rangers and righty Dane Dunning agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.66MM, Heyman reports. It’s a 19% cut after Dunning struggled to a 5.31 ERA in 95 innings this past season. He was projected at $4.4MM.
  • The Giants and right-hander Austin Warren agreed to terms on a one-year deal, reports Justice de los Santos of the San Jose Mercury News. He missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned late with 10 2/3 innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen.
  • The Brewers announced that they’ve signed catcher/outfielder Eric Haase to a one-year deal for the upcoming season. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the deal guarantees Haase $1.35MM with the chance to earn more via incentives. He’d been projected for a $1.8MM salary. Haase will fill the backup catcher role in Milwaukee next season. He’s controllable through the 2027 season.
  • The Dodgers and right-hander Dustin May settled at $2.135MM, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link). That’s the exact same salary he had in 2024. May will be looking to bounce back after spending all of this year on the injured list.
  • The Phillies and right-hander José Ruiz settled at $1.225MM, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’s slightly above his $1.2MM projection. The righty can also unlock a $20K bonus for pitching in 30 games and $25K for pitching in 40. He made 52 appearances for the Phils in 2024 with a 3.71 ERA. Philadelphia also announced agreement with backup catcher Garrett Stubbs on a one-year deal. The Phils did not reveal the salary figure. Stubbs hit .207 in 54 games this year.
  • The Tigers and infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry agreed to a $1.65MM salary for 2025, per Robert Murray of FanSided (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press on X). That’s slightly ahead of his $1.3MM projection. He hit .215/.277/.337 this year while stealing 16 bases and playing each position except or first base and catcher,

American League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

  • The Angels announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Patrick Sandoval, infielder Eric Wagaman, as well as outfielders Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio. You can read more about those moves here.
  • The Astros tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Athletics announced that they did not tender a contract to right-hander Dany Jiménez, who was projected for a $1MM salary. He posted a 4.91 in 25 appearances for the A’s in 2024. He struck out 21.4% of opponents but gave out walks at a 16.2% clip.
  • The Blue Jays are planning to non-tender righty Dillon Tate, per Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). Tate was just claimed off waivers at the start of September and had a projected salary of $1.9MM. He’s a former fourth overall pick with some good numbers in his career but he missed most of 2023 due to injury and then posted a 4.66 ERA in 2024. The Jays are also non-tendering righty Jordan Romano, which you can read more about here.
  • The Guardians have non-tendered outfielder George Valera and right-hander Connor Gillispie, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). Both players were designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Mariners are going to non-tender outfielder Sam Haggerty, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He was limited to just eight games in 2024 due to a torn achilles. He was only projected for a salary of $900K but the M’s have decided to move on. They also non-tendered infielder Josh Rojas and righties Austin Voth and JT Chargois, moves that are covered with more depth here.
  • The Orioles plan to non-tender right-hander Jacob Webb, per Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link). Webb was projected for a salary of $1.7MM next year. The righty tossed 56 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2024 with a 3.02 ERA and 24.5% strikeout rate, but an 11.4% walk rate.
  • The Rays announced they have non-tendered outfielder Dylan Carlson as well as left-handers Tyler Alexander, Colin Poche and Richard Lovelady. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the news (X link) prior to the official announcement. Carlson once seemed like a building block in St. Louis but his offense has declined for three straight years now and he was projected for a $2.7MM salary. Alexander was projected for $2.8MM and had a 5.10 ERA this year. Poche had a solid 3.86 ERA but was projected for $3.4MM. Lovelady was designated for assignment a few days ago.
  • The Rangers tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Red Sox announced that right-handers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell were both non-tendered. Those two had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Royals tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Tigers announced that they have non-tendered infielder Eddys Leonard as well as right-handers Ricky Vanasco, Brendan White and Wilmer Flores. Three of those four were designated for assignment earlier this week. Flores, the lone exception, is the younger brother of the same-named Wilmer Flores of the Giants. The younger Flores was once a notable pitching prospect but was injured for most of 2024.
  • The Twins tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Yankees have non-tendered infielder Jon Berti, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). He was projected for a salary of $3.8MM. He was injured for much of the year and only got into 25 games. The Yankees also announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Tim Mayza, who was projected for a $4MM salary but had a 6.33 ERA in 2024.
  • The White Sox will non-tender first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets, which MLBTR covered earlier today. The Sox later announced Sheets and also that they non-tendered right-hander Enyel De Los Santos as well. De Los Santos was projected for a salary of $1.7MM but posted a 5.20 ERA this year.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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Aaron Judge is the MVP once again. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced this evening that the Yankee captain was the unanimous choice for the American League’s top player this year. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals was the unanimous runner-up, getting all of the second-place votes. Judge’s teammate Juan Soto finished third in the voting.

Judge was the AL MVP in 2022, his 62-homer campaign. While he came up just shy of that in 2024 with “only” 58 home runs, he roughly kept pace with himself in most categories. His 24.3% strikeout rate was actually a personal best, slightly ahead of the 25.1% clip from his previous MVP campaign. His 18.9% walk rate was a few ticks better than the 15.9% clip from two years ago. His 10 steals were a bit of a drop from his 16 from two years back, but his 144 runs batted in were a gain of 13.

Overall, his offensive contributions led to a ridiculous .322/.458/.701 slash line this year. That translated to a 218 wRC+, indicating he was 118% better than league average this year. That was an improvement over his 206 wRC+ in 2022.

On top of his work at the plate, he also contributed in the field. While he’s primarily been a right fielder in his career, he spent a career-high 903 innings in center in 2024. While he didn’t receive strong marks for his work there, simply being able to play up the middle was valuable to the Yanks, given the demands of the position. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 11.2 wins above replacement on the year, a slight increase over his 11.1 fWAR in 2022.

That all-time performance made it an easy choice for voters. That’s unfortunate for Witt, who played at a level that’d be enough to win MVP in a lot of years. The Royals’ star shortstop led the majors with a .332 average and 211 hits. He slashed .332/.389/.588 with 32 homers and 31 steals while playing excellent defense. FanGraphs credited Witt with more than 10 WAR in his own right. Since Witt finished in the top three in MVP voting within his first three MLB seasons, the Royals receive an extra pick after the first round in next year’s draft.

Soto had arguably the best full season of his career, hitting 41 homers with a .288/.419/.569 slash in what may be his only year as a Yankee. This is his third top five MVP finish. Soto received 21 third-place votes. Gunnar Henderson and José Ramírez, who finished fourth and fifth respectively, were the only others to land in third on some ballots. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tarik Skubal, Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Brent Rooker, Emmanuel Clase, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Anthony Santander, Jose Altuve, Seth Lugo, Corey Seager, Framber Valdez and Detroit reliever Tyler Holton also appeared on at least one ballot.

Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Yankees Select Caleb Durbin, Jesus Rodriguez

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The Yankees announced that they have selected infielder Caleb Durbin and catcher/infielder/outfielder Jesus Rodriguez to their 40-man roster, protecting both players from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Additionally, the Yanks announced that right-hander Carson Coleman has been returned to them by the Rangers. Coleman had been selected in last year’s Rule 5 draft but spent all of 2024 on the injured list.

Durbin, 25 in February, was drafted by Atlanta but came to the Yankees in the December 2022 trade that sent Lucas Luetge the other way. Since then, he has taken 697 plate appearances across multiple levels, drawing walks at an 11.3% rate while only striking out 8.3% of the time. He has slashed .287/.391/.440 for a wRC+ of 127 while stealing 67 bases in 79 tries. He has done so while playing the three infield positions to the left of first base while also spending a bit of time in the outfield.

Last week, manager Aaron Boone spoke glowingly of Durbin, saying he expected him to play a big role on next year’s team. With Gleyber Torres becoming a free agent, the club has a vacancy at second base. Perhaps Jazz Chisholm Jr. could move over there but he could also stay at the hot corner. Time will tell if Durbin can carve out a regular role or perhaps be in a utility gig or be in the minors as depth. Either way, given that he has opened some eyes, it’s not surprising that he’s getting a roster spot today.

Rodriguez, 22, is likely further from contributing to the big league club. He hasn’t yet reached Triple-A and only has 23 games at the Double-A level. Still, it’s understandable that the Yanks wanted to protect him, given his strong offensive numbers. In 1,168 minor league plate appearances, he has struck out just 14.3% of the time and walked at a strong 11.6% clip. His combined batting line of .311/.397/.477 leads to a 143 wRC+.

He will likely still need some more time in the minors but should eventually factor in at the big league level. He has spent some time behind the plate but also in left field and the three non-shortstop infield positions.

As for Coleman, the Rangers took him in the 2023 Rule 5 draft even though he had undergone Tommy John surgery a few months earlier. The Rangers put him on the 60-day injured list early in the year but were likely hoping to activate him at some point. Unfortunately, he was never able to come off the injured list during the 2024 campaign.

They could have kept him on the roster but the Rule 5 restrictions would have carried over into next year. He also would require a 40-man roster spot throughout the winter, as there is no injured list again until spring training. Instead, the Rangers decided to move on and sent him back to the Yankees, who do not need to add him to their 40-man roster today.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Luis Gil Wins American League Rookie Of The Year

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Yankees right-hander Luis Gil has been named the American League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Colton Cowser of the Orioles finished second while Gil’s teammate Austin Wells finished third.

Gil, 26, made his big league debut back in 2021 despite what his eligibility for this award might imply. The right-hander made seven starts in the majors between the 2021 and ’22 seasons, pitching to a 3.78 ERA in those 33 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for Gil, the start of his career was derailed in early 2022 by Tommy John surgery, and he did not return to a professional mound until the tail end of the minor league season in 2023. Given his long layoff and the fact that the Yankees entered Spring Training with a solid on-paper rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt, it at first seemed all but certain that the 26-year-old would see his return to the majors further delayed as he began the season in the minors to wait for a big league opportunity.

That opportunity came earlier than anyone expected, however, as Cole missed the entire first half after being diagnosed with a nerve issue in his throwing elbow. That opened the door for Gil to make the Opening Day roster as the club’s fifth starter, and he proceeded to dominate in the early months of the season. In his first twelve starts of the year, Gil delivered a sensational 1.82 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a 2.98 FIP across 69 1/3 innings of work. That dominant performance was more than enough to earn him a rotation spot even after Cole returned to the rotation, and while Gil’s performance was far more uneven for the remainder of the season he still entered the month of August with a solid 3.20 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 21 starts.

August proved to be a bumpy month for Gil this season, as he made just three abbreviated starts before ultimately winding up on the injured list due to a back strain. That injury may have contributed to his rough finish to the year, as Gil posted a lackluster 4.38 ERA and 5.76 FIP in eight starts between August and September. Of course, it’s hardly a shock that Gil seemed to lose steam late in the year between his long layoff and the fact that his 151 2/3 innings of work were by far a career high. Overall, his final numbers were solid thanks to his otherworldly start to the year, with a 3.50 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.14 FIP in 29 starts.

The Yankees will not receive a Prospective Promotion Incentive draft pick as a result of Gil’s win, as the right-hander did not appear on the requisite number of top-100 prospect lists in order to qualify for the PPI. That’s not the case for the second place Cowser, who would have earned the Orioles their second consecutive PPI pick and Rookie of the Year win had he won the award. The 24-year-old outfielder turned in an impressive season of his own this year, slashing .242/.321/.447 (120 wRC+) with 24 homers in 153 games while splitting time between left and center field for Baltimore. That impressive showing nearly took home the award, as Cowser received 13 first place votes to Gil’s 15 and actually appeared on 27 ballots as opposed to 26 for Gil.

That split voting continued down the ballot, as Wells finished in third place despite both Athletics closer Mason Miller and Guardians reliever Cade Smith receiving a first place vote a piece while Wells himself did not receive any first place votes. Miller and Smith finished fourth and fifth for the award, respectively, while Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu and Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford finished in sixth and seventh place with a handful of down ballot votes a piece.

Yankees Sign Pablo Reyes To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees have signed veteran utility man Pablo Reyes to a minor league deal, per a report from Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News. The infielder will presumably receive an invite to big league Spring Training in a few months.

Reyes, 31, made his big league debut with the Pirates back in 2018. That 18-game cup of coffee in the majors went quite well for him, as he slashed an impressive .293/.349/.483 in 63 trips to the plate down the stretch that September. That strong performance earned him a larger role with the club as part of the club’s Opening Day roster, but he struggled badly and found himself optioned to the minors for much of the summer as he ultimately slashed just .203/.274/.322 in 71 games. A PED suspension wiped out Reyes’s 2020 season, but he resurfaced as a member of the Brewers in 2021. He spent two years as a depth piece for Milwaukee, shuttling between Triple-A and the club’s bench, and hit a middling .258/.330/.344 (84 wRC+) in 103 trips to the plate with the club.

He elected free agency following the 2022 season and initially signed on with the Athletics on a minor league pact for the 2023 season. He ultimately did not make it to Oakland, however, failing to crack the club’s Opening Day roster before being shipped to the Red Sox in mid-May. He was quickly selected to the big league roster in Boston, and his time with the Red Sox proved to be the most productive of his big league career. Reyes appeared in 64 games for the Red Sox last year, slashing a roughly league average .287/.339/.377 in 185 trips to the plate.

That was a sufficiently strong performance that Boston decided to bring Reyes back for the 2024 campaign, but things took a turn for the worse this year as he posted a paltry 27 wRC+ in the first month of the year before being designated for assignment by the Red Sox in late April. Reyes was outrighted to the minors initially but quickly found himself on the move again as he was dealt to the Mets the following month. Reyes only made one appearance in Queens as a pinch runner without stepping up to the plate, but he did slash a strong .300/.385/.504 in 68 Triple-A games between his two clubs’ affiliates in Worcester and Syracuse.

Now, Reyes will enter 2025 looking to crack a Yankees bench mix that current figures to feature Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, DJ LeMahieu, Jon Berti, and Jorbit Vivas. While Reyes offers little in the way of offense, he does provide value in the form of quality baserunning and the positional flexibility to play everywhere on the diamond except behind the plate. Should Reyes find himself on the outside looking in of the club’s Opening Day roster next year, he could be a valuable source of non-roster depth for a club that currently projects to feature a bench without many optionable players.

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

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Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market.  Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period.  If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools.  The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision.  This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star.  It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15.  As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers.  Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question.  As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

More from around the baseball world…

  • The meeting between Juan Soto and the Mets took place this past Saturday, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza all in attendance to provide a “very detailed” presentation to the star slugger.  Soto is set to next meet with the Yankees on Monday, and he has previously met with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in these early stages of his free agent adventure.  It isn’t expected that Soto will be signing any time soon, as these initial meetings could be more about laying groundwork than putting any actual offers on the table.
  • Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) that Jorge Mateo is expected “to have a very full, if not a 162, something close to that season” in the aftermath of a UCL brace procedure last August.  Kubatko’s impression was that the Orioles have Mateo in their plans for 2025, which lowers the possibility that the infielder could be cut loose in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.  Mateo is projected for a $3.2MM arbitration salary, and fits as a non-tender candidate considering between his injury, subpar offense, and the crowded Baltimore infield picture.  The O’s could be an interesting team to watch this week in advance of both the non-tender deadline and Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, as Baltimore could potentially move an infielder or two off the roster in trades.
  • With the Rays set to use George M. Steinbrenner Field as their home for the 2025 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks at several details involved in the plan.  A lot has naturally yet to be determined, though Topkin answers some questions ranging from team-centric issues like clubhouses and training amenities to fan-related details like how tickets and parking will be managed.  One interesting wrinkle is the fact that the Rays are expected to host playoff games as per usual should the team make the postseason, which creates the awkward potential scenario of the Rays hosting the Yankees in the Yankees’ own Spring Training facility.

The Yankees’ Wave Of Former Top Prospects

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Prospects in baseball aren't a sure thing, but they're fun to dream on. As fans, pundits and onlookers of all varieties -- heck, even for team employees -- it's easy to get swept up in what might eventually be. There's nothing more alluring than the idea of a potential star-caliber player, or even a solid regular, earning at or close to the league minimum with six or even seven years of club control ahead of them. The more players of this ilk on which a team can successfully convert, the more space there is to be aggressive in free agency, in extending homegrown talent and in acquiring players on notable salary in trades.

The flip side of that equation, however, lies in the moves teams sometimes decline to make. Trades are passed on and free agents looked over, as that promise of a better tomorrow looms on the horizon. "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or "TINSTAAPP") is a common idiom in baseball circles. For every Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio, there are ten others whose names fall to the wayside and eventually change hands via a minor trade/claim or pass through waivers entirely. Prospects are fun to dream on ... but more often than not, they're just that: a dream.

Every team is susceptible to this. Look up and down the league and you'll probably find at least one former top prospect among each club's crop of minor league free agents this offseason, along with several more who cleared waivers and were assigned to their clubs' top affiliate in hopes they reestablish something.

This isn't intended to be a knock on the Yankees in particular. Again, it's a common problem. But the Yankees currently have four out-of-options players who've yet to establish themselves and who have ranked among their top 10 prospects in the organization within the past three years. None has established himself, and now each is facing an uncertain future, particularly with the looming Nov. 19 deadline to protect players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have five open 40-man spots at the moment, so perhaps they don't feel a huge push to free up some space, but those vacancies will be filled by prospects, free agent signings and trade acquisitions -- all beginning within the next few days. Someone's going to have to get pushed off eventually.

Again, other clubs have this issue every year. But in 2024 specifically, there's no club with quite as many out-of-options players on the roster bubble as the Yankees.

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Juan Soto Rumors: Red Sox, Yankees, Jays, Dodgers

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Juan Soto’s free agency will be the primary narrative this offseason until he chooses his next landing spot, though there’s no indication that things are close. The 26-year-old superstar began meeting with teams this week but is still in the early stages of the process. For instance, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reports that while the Red Sox feel their three-hour meeting with Soto and agent Scott Boras was “productive,” it was more introductory and informative than anything else. The two sides did not discuss years and dollars; the Sox pitched Soto on their plans for the future, their upcoming wave of high-end prospects and other aspects of the organization, while Soto sought to learn about their player evaluation methods, Fenway Park’s facilities, etc. It’s common for early meetings of this nature for top-end free agents to be introductory in nature, so this isn’t necessarily unique to Soto.

The Red Sox haven’t been involved in the deep waters of free agency in recent offseasons. Trevor Story is the lone nine-figure expenditure for the Sox in the past five years. Since signing David Price in 2015, the Red Sox have only gone beyond two years on a free agent four times (Story, J.D. Martinez, Masataka Yoshida and Nathan Eovaldi). Given that, it’s not surprising to see one of the elements Soto hoped to gauge (per McAdam) was the team’s “commitment to winning.”

That said, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that the Red Sox are approaching their pursuit of Soto with a level of “intent” that we’ve not seen from Boston “in some time.” Intent alone won’t win the bidding, of course, but the Sox have not been characterized as major players for top-end free agents in recent years. All indications this offseason seem to signal a shift in direction.

The incumbent Yankees and crosstown Mets are still perceived by many as the favorites to win the Soto bidding, once formal offers begin rolling in. To this point, it doesn’t seem the process has reached that point. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are comfortable going to 13 years and topping Aaron Judge’s $40MM annual salary in order to keep Soto, placing their baseline comfort level somewhere in the $520MM range overall. Most expectations are that Soto will exceed that mark by a fair margin, but it’s a notable starting point all the same.

Meanwhile, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet takes a look at at the Blue Jays’ interest in Soto, noting that as was the case with Shohei Ohtani last offseason, ownership views him as an exception to any other offseason budgetary plans. Toronto’s pursuit of Soto is not an indication that if the Jays miss out on the star slugger, they’ll pivot and spend $500-700MM elsewhere in free agency. Within his previously referenced column, Heyman doubles down on prior reporting that the Blue Jays plan to be aggressive in their pursuit of Soto.

That’s not necessarily the case with all of his expected suitors. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Dodgers “won’t chase after Soto,” having already committed to nine more years of Ohtani and thus potentially restricting them in the event that Soto eventually needs to spend more time at designated hitter. They’ll be opportunistic and perhaps jump into the fray if the market doesn’t develop as Soto hopes, though that seems unlikely, given the robust demand for his services and a potential Bronx-versus-Queens bidding war.

Up until last winter, with Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that was generally how Los Angeles had approached the market under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Though they regularly fielded one of the game’s largest payrolls and most star-studded rosters, most of the Dodgers’ star power over the years was acquired on the trade market (e.g. Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow) or developed in-house (e.g. Will Smith, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager prior to his free agent departure). Freddie Freeman was the lone big-ticket free agent acquisition, and he came on board with a deferral-laden deal after an extended stay on the open market. That scenario almost certainly won’t happen with Soto.

As it stands, there’s still no expected timetable for when Soto might reach a decision or when offers might be presented in earnest. The fact that the Red Sox didn’t even delve into numbers speaks to the current preliminary stage of the bidding process. It’s always possible Soto could decide he wants to accelerate the process and have a team by the end of the month, but a decision at some point in December feels likelier.

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