The Mets defeated the Brewers yesterday and are now one win away from moving on to the National League Division series. But regardless of how deep they go in the postseason, right-hander Paul Blackburn won’t be an option for them. Manager Carlos Mendoza informed reporters that the righty is done for the year, with Tim Healey of Newsday among those to relay the news on X.
Blackburn was acquired from the Athletics prior to this year’s deadline. The Mets had some injuries in their rotation, with Christian Scott and Kodai Senga both on the shelf, so they sent prospect Kade Morris to Oakland to bring Blackburn aboard.
Unfortunately, the trade hasn’t worked out for them so far. Blackburn made five starts with a 5.18 earned run average before landing on the 15-day injured list due to a right hand bruise suffered when he was hit by a comebacker. While still on the IL, it was reported a couple of weeks ago that he was dealing with a spinal fluid leak in his back. That sounded pretty grim but the club still had some hope of him making a return.
With today’s update, however, that won’t happen. It’s not a devastating blow to the Mets at this point, as the extra off-days in the playoffs and the do-or-die nature of the circumstances lead to smaller starting rotations. The Mets have Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino as their current top three, with David Peterson and Tylor Megill also around as possible options. Megill isn’t on the Wild Card roster but could be utilized in the coming weeks, if needed.
Senga could perhaps be an option down the line as well but likely wouldn’t be counted on for bulk. He suffered a capsule strain in his shoulder during spring training and didn’t make his season debut until July. In his first start back, he suffered a left calf strain and went right back on the injured list. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen session earlier this week, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. That could lead to him rejoining the club later in the month but he will probably be limited to short outings.
Turning back to Blackburn, the club could still reap some return on that trade as he can be retained via arbitration for one more season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $4.4MM next year. Since the start of 2022, Blackburn has thrown 290 1/3 innings with a 4.43 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.
He would be well worth that modest arbitration raise if the Mets expect him to be able to provide that kind of production next year. The club has a fairly wide open rotation in 2025, as both Quintana and Severino are slated for free agency. Manaea has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out he will certainly exercise as long as he’s still healthy in a few weeks. Scott recently underwent Tommy John surgery and could miss the whole season. José Buttó could return to a starting role but he’s having success in the bullpen, which could tempt the club to keep him there.
That’ll leave the club with a projected 2025 rotation of Senga, Megill and Peterson. Prospects like Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell have reached Triple-A but without success at that level yet. Given the number of available innings they have, tendering a contract to Blackburn makes plenty of sense. Even if the club pursues higher-upside pitchers in free agency and squeeze him out of the plans, Blackburn would have some trade value they could look to cash in.