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Mets Decline Team Option On Phil Maton

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The Mets have declined their $7.75MM team option on right-hander Phil Maton, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The 31-year-old will receive a $250K buyout and return to free agency.

The decision isn’t much of a surprise, even though Maton pitched quite well for the club down the stretch this season. The veteran righty posted a 2.58 ERA with a nearly identical 2.57 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work after being acquired from the Rays in early July, with a 26.5% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. Those excellent numbers may have been worth considering the $7.5MM decision on his option if they were held throughout the season, but that unfortunately was not the case.

Not only did Maton struggle badly in the playoffs, with an 8.53 ERA in six appearances for the Mets this season, but his brief tenure with the Rays was something of a disaster. His 4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 frames with the club was 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and his 5.63 FIP was 42% below par by measure of FIP-. He struck out just 19.7% of batters faced during his time with Tampa Bay, but even more concerning was the fact that his walk rate ballooned to 11.8% during that time. In all, that leaves Maton to enter free agency with a platform season that casts him as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever with a 3.66 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 71 appearances this year.

That’s more or less par for the course for Maton throughout his eight seasons in the majors. The right-hander sports a career ERA of 4.16 (100 ERA+) with a 4.00 FIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. The best season of Maton’s career came just last year with the Astros, his third season in Houston after the club acquired him from Cleveland midway through the 2021 campaign in the trade that made Myles Straw a Guardian. In 2023, Maton struck out 27% of opponents while walking 9.1% en route to a 3.00 ERA in 66 innings of work.

A club that buys into Maton’s 2023 performance and his stretch run during the regular season with New York this year could potentially look at the right-hander as a late-inning option, although it’s possible he’s best suited to serve as a steadying, veteran presence in a bullpen like those of the Tigers, Cubs, and Rockies that has relied heavily on relatively young and inexperienced players. All three of those teams figure to be in the market for relief help this winter, but that can also be said of virtually every team in baseball. That should leave Maton comfortably in position to land a big league deal this winter, even if it doesn’t come at an AAV north of $7MM like this team option would have if exercised.

As for the Mets, Edwin Diaz remains locked in as the club’s closer and players like Jose Butto, Sean Reid-Foley, and Alex Young all impressed with the club this year. While it wouldn’t be a shock to see them look for bullpen upgrades this winter (particularly from the left side), they’ve already begun to make additions with their recent deal to land right-hander Dylan Covey. The signing of Covey, who has struggled in the majors but spent time both as a relief arm and a starter, could signal that the Mets don’t plan to spend much of their considerable payroll flexibility this winter on relievers as they look to reconstruct their rotation, retain first baseman Pete Alonso, and get into the thick of the bidding for Juan Soto.

Sean Manaea To Opt Out Of Mets Contract

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Left-hander Sean Manaea is planning to opt out of the second year of his contract with the Mets, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes (X link). Manaea signed a two-year, $28MM free agent deal with New York last winter that contained the player option for the 2025 season, and he’ll now leave $13.5MM on the table in search of a longer and more lucrative guarantee this offseason. He’s a virtual lock to receive a $21.05MM qualifying offer but is overwhelmingly likely to decline that in his pursuit of a longer-term pact.

Manaea’s decision comes as little surprise. The two-year pact he inked in Queens came in his second free agency foray. Since first reaching the open market on the heels of the 2022 season, he’s signed a pair of two-year contracts with opt-outs after year one, showing willingness to bet on himself and the confidence that he’ll eventually land a longer-term contract. Given the strength of his 2024 campaign, he’s now likely to find a guarantee of at least three years in free agency.

Entering the 2024 season, Manaea was viewed as something of a veteran stabilizer for the Mets’ rotation. New York’s president of baseball operations, David Stearns, made a series of short-term acquisitions in the rotation — Luis Severino also inked a one-year deal, and Adrian Houser was acquired from the Brewers — in an effort to patch things over in what most expected to be a transitional year for the Mets. Instead, the Amazins romped through the season’s final four months as the sport’s hottest team and rode that momentum all the way to the NLCS.

Manaea’s success was a huge part of that run. The 6’5″, 245-pound southpaw pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings in the regular season and worked to a sharp 3.47 ERA. He fanned one quarter of his opponents, issued walks at a solid 8.5% clip and deftly avoided home runs (1.04 HR/9). Solid as the year-long numbers were, it was the second half where Manaea truly took off. Manaea altered his throwing motion midseason — closely resembling the delivery of likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale — and at the suggestion of pitching coach Jeremy Hefner began a unique pregame workout wherein he throws to the opposite mound in the bullpen while warming (X link, with video, via Steve Gelbs of SNY).

The transformation was nearly immediate. Over the final two-plus months of the year, Manaea pitched to a 3.09 ERA with an improved 28.5% strikeout rate against a 6.2% walk rate. He ditched his cutter entirely and eventually ditched his four-seamer as well, all in the name of throwing more sinkers and sliders. Opponents had averaged 89.2 mph off the bat against him prior to the changes and posted a 40.8% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Down the stretch, those numbers plummeted to 87.5 mph and 32.4%, respectively. Manaea’s excellence carried on through three postseason starts, but he finally ran into a wall in the Mets’ final game of the year, surrendering five runs in just two innings in the decisive Game 6 loss to the eventual World Champion Dodgers.

In free agency, Manaea will market not only a career-high workload (200-plus innings, including the postseason) but also newly altered mechanics and a tweaked repertoire that led to his late-season surge. He’ll turn 33 in February, which will make anything longer than a four-year deal extraordinarily unlikely, but a three- or four-year pact at a strong annual value should be on the table. The Mets are in the market for multiple starting pitchers and will surely have interest in retaining the big lefty, but Manaea will command interest from a broad range of suitors. He’s one of the top starters on the market this time around, but his age will prevent him from landing the type of long-term deal from which many clubs shy away.

Mets Among Roughly 11 Teams To Reach Out To Soto

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Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway. Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures. However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is finished.

The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.

Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller. Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.

To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top $700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around $438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.

There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of $700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual value is the only AAV north of $44MM.

No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.

Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason, perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty much the entirety of the player universe.”

Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in international bonus pool space to sign him.

That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.

Mets Sign Dylan Covey To Major League Deal

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The Mets have given out their first major league contract of the offseason, signing right-handed pitcher Dylan Covey to a one-year deal. The team announced the news this afternoon.

The terms of the deal have not yet been announced, although it’s presumably not a very high guarantee. Indeed, it’s somewhat surprising to see Covey land a big league deal at all considering his limited track record and lack of MLB success. He made his debut with the White Sox in 2017 after they selected him from the A’s in the Rule 5 draft. Over three seasons in Chicago, largely as a starting pitcher, he produced a 6.54 ERA and 5.16 SIERA in 250 1/3 innings of work. It was hardly a surprise when the White Sox cut him over the 2019-20 offseason and he elected free agency.

Over the next few years, Covey bounced from the Rays to the Red Sox to the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan. His performance over two seasons with the Rakuten Monkeys convinced the Dodgers to offer him a minor league deal before the 2023 season. Yet, after just one appearance for L.A., he was designated for assignment. The Phillies, in need of a mop-up man, claimed Covey off of waivers and put him in their bullpen. In his first chance at regular MLB playing time as a reliever, he was rather effective, albeit in a low-leverage role, pitching to a 3.69 ERA and 4.53 SIERA over 39 innings.

However, Covey did not pitch in the majors at all in 2024. He sat out the first four months of the season recovering from a right shoulder strain, and the Phillies removed him from the 40-man roster and sent him outright to Triple-A upon his return from the IL. Nonetheless, the Mets must have liked what they saw over his 15 appearances with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. After giving up a solo home run to the very first batter he faced at Triple-A in 2024, the right-hander did not allow another run for the rest of the season. He struck out 27.6% of the batters he faced. The Mets have several open spots on their 40-man roster, and they will use one of those spots to slot Covey into the bullpen picture for 2025.

MLBTR Podcast: The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns recently addressed the club’s financial situation (2:00)
  • Does the spending capacity of the Mets make them favorites for Juan Soto? (16:00)
  • The Rangers are reportedly hoping to duck beneath the competitive balance tax in 2025 (23:00)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which impending free agent has earned the biggest pay raise by his performance in the current postseason? (30:30)
  • Could the Cardinals get Ryan Mountcastle from the Orioles in a deal for Ryan Helsley to fill the void at first? (36:40)
  • Could Rowdy Tellez be a fit for the Tigers? (38:50)
  • Should Justin Verlander switch into a closer’s role? (41:10)
  • Details on what’s coming up soon at MLBTR, including the Top 50 Free Agents, top trade candidates and a megapod (43:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field – listen here
  • Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s – listen here
  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mets, Chris Devenski Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mets and right-hander Chris Devenski are in agreement on a minor league deal, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. The righty also receives a camp invite and will be competing for a job in next year’s spring training.

Devenski, 34 in November, has had an up-and-down career but is coming off a rough campaign. The Rays signed him to a one-year deal with a $1.1MM guarantee after getting a good look at him late in 2023. After being cut loose by the Angels, the Rays signed Devenski at the end of August last year. He posted a 2.08 earned run average over his nine appearances in Tampa so they decided to bring him back.

While the Rays are known for their savvy under-the-radar pickups, this one didn’t work out. Devenski tossed 26 2/3 innings for the Rays in 2024 but with a 6.75 ERA. His 19.7% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 25% ground ball rate were all below league averages. He missed about a month from late April to late May, going on the injured list due to right knee tendinitis. He was designated for assignment and released at the end of June.

He was then signed by the Mariners and spent the final months of 2024 with Triple-A Tacoma. He was able to finish his 2024 with a strong showing there in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, throwing 23 innings with a 2.35 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 43.1% ground ball rate.

The Mets are presumably intrigued by that performance with Tacoma, though the veteran’s longer track record may play a role as well. He had a dominant showing with the Astros to start his career, tossing 189 innings over 2016 and 2017 with a 2.38 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate.

But as mentioned, his career has been up-and-down, and those highs were followed with some serious lows. Over 2018 and 2019, he tossed another 116 1/3 innings for Houston but with an ERA of 4.56 in that time. His 6.9% walk rate was still good but his strikeout rate dipped to 24.9%. Elbow soreness limited him to just four appearances in 2020 and he eventually required Tommy John surgery in 2021. His attempts to get back on the mound in 2022 and 2023 were largely unsuccessful before his aforementioned stint with the Rays late last year.

Devenski has a 6.46 ERA since the start of 2020 but was injured for a lot of that. He showed some promise with the Rays late last year and with the Rainiers more recently. There’s no real risk for the Mets on a minor league deal, so they’ll take a look at what Devenski has come spring.

President of baseball operations David Stearns did plenty of tinkering with the bullpen this year. He gave one-year deals to Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, Shintaro Fujinami, Jorge López, Michael Tonkin and Austin Adams last winter as well as several minor league deals. As the season progressed, many of those guys ended up losing their roster spots while guys like Phil Maton, Huascar Brazobán, Ryne Stanek and others were acquired from other clubs. Ottavino and Stanek are now about to hit free agency with Maton likely joining them if the Mets turn down his club option. The 2024 Mets were only eliminated about a week ago and the World Series is still ongoing, but the club has already made one move to provide some bullpen depth for next year.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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What was supposed to be a transitional year for the Mets turned into a Cinderella campaign. They got stronger as the season went along and snuck into the playoffs, eventually reaching the NLCS. Now, they are set to lose a huge batch of players to free agency. That gives them plenty of holes to fill but a massive amount of spending capacity, meaning just about anything is possible this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $224MM through 2031 ($5MM deferred annually)
  • Brandon Nimmo, OF: $121.5MM through 2030
  • Edwin Díaz, RHP: $55.5MM through 2027 (includes buy-out on '28 club option; Diaz can opt-out after '25; some money deferred)
  • Kodai Senga, RHP: $42MM through 2027 (deal includes conditional opt-out after '25 and conditional club option for '28)
  • Jeff McNeil, IF/OF: $33.5MM through 2026 (includes buyout on '27 club option)
  • Starling Marte, OF: $19.5MM through 2025

Option Decisions

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $119.25MM
Total future commitments (assuming Manaea opts out and Maton is bought out): $496.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Blackburn, Torrens, Young, Stewart, Reid-Foley

Free Agents

David Stearns was hired to be the president of baseball operations just as the 2023 season was winding down. That was a disappointing year for the Mets, as they had raised hopes with a strong 2022 season and then spent big in the offseason. But things fell apart and they ended up selling at the 2023 deadline, including sending out future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Scherzer indicated to reporters that he agreed to be traded to the Rangers because he was told that 2024 would be "a kind of transitory year" for the Mets. The first offseason under Stearns seemed to reflect that, as the Mets backed away from the massive spending sprees that characterized previous winters. They did sign ten free agents, but nine of them were one-year deals and the only exception was the two-year deal for Sean Manaea, which came with an opt-out after year one.

The Mets got out to a rough start in 2024, losing their first five games. They had a record of 24-33 at the end of May. But everything turned around from there, as they went 65-40 in the final four months of the season, nabbing a Wild Card spot and going on a nice postseason run. Now the questions are about what's next.

Since the club gave so many short-term deals recently, a huge chunk of their roster is now heading to free agency. There's also some dead money coming off the books. The Scherzer and Verlander pacts are now done, as is their four-year James McCann deal. (He played the final two seasons of that pact in Baltimore, with the Mets covering most of the salary.) Stearns will have plenty of work to do in the next few months, but he should have a massive amount of spending capacity available to him.

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Stearns: Mets Need To Add Multiple Starting Pitchers

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The Mets had a good run in 2024 but came up just short of the final goal, getting eliminated by the Dodgers in the NLCS a few days ago. President of baseball operations David Stearns met with members of the media today to discuss the season that was and the offseason ahead, with SNYtv relaying the entire half-hour press conference on X.

Stearns discussed a number of topics but a major theme was the club’s high number of departing free agents. Each of Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker are Jose Iglesias headed to the open market, along with a number of relievers. Sean Manaea is also going to be added to that list eventually, once he officially declines his $13.5MM player option.

That leaves a lot of holes on the roster but also means a lot of money is coming off the books. The Mets also ate money in facilitating trades in previous years, sending out players like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and James McCann. Those contracts are also expiring now, freeing up even more cash. RosterResource projects the Mets for about $161MM for next year’s roster, well below this year’s $336MM. A few non-tenders and Manaea opting out will widen that gap even farther.

“We’ve got financial flexibility,” Stearns said when asked about that subject. “It means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That’s an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity and being aggressive in certain spaces.”

Since Steve Cohen has purchased the club, the Mets have been one of the top clubs in terms of spending, often at the very top of payroll lists. Stearns was only hired a year ago and an unknown factor in the Mets’ future is how he will operate with that spending capacity, after spending most of his career with a lower-spending club in Milwaukee.

His first offseason running the Mets saw the club spread the money around to various players but without any long-term commitments. He signed nine players to one-year deals with Manaea the only player to get even a second season, and even that came with an opt-out after one year. That offseason came after a disappointing 2023 campaign that turned the Mets into sellers, which included the aforementioned Scherzer and Verlander deals, but still with lots of money tied up. What remains to be seen is if Stearns will now act differently on the heels of a more successful season and with much more powder dry.

“We also have to recognize,” Stearns continued, “that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis. So, you’re right. We have a lot of money coming off the books. I would expect us to spend some of that, a good portion of that, to complement our team, to improve our team heading into next year. We’re also not going to do anything that hamstrings us in future years and prevents us from continually adding, supplementing to our core.”

Those comments could be interpreted in many ways. Even the highest payroll clubs want to spend their money as wisely as possible, which is naturally part of what he’s referencing here. While that could perhaps be a suggestion that the club will have some restraint with their new spending capacity, he also wouldn’t be doing himself any favors by coming out and baldly declaring that he was planning on spending his winter throwing money out the back of a train. Simply for leverage in contract talks, it makes sense for him to play his cards close to the vest when discussing plans like this.

Time will tell whether this offseason will see the Mets signing a bunch of superstars or making more measured additions, but Stearns didn’t shy away from the rotation question. As mentioned, the club is set to lose a bunch of players, including three starting pitchers in Manaea, Severino and Quintana. Each of those guys topped 170 innings in 2024, so the combined subtraction of that trio will be significant. Christian Scott also underwent UCL surgery in September and will likely miss all of 2025.

Next year’s rotation currently projects to include Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Senga missed most of 2024 due to various injuries while Peterson and Megill are a tier below fully established starters, as the Mets have moved each to the minors or the bullpen on occasion. Stearns was asked about Peterson, Megill and José Buttó but wouldn’t commit on whether any of those guys would be more likely to be in the rotation or bullpen in 2025. The club can retain Paul Blackburn via arbitration but he has battled multiple injuries in his career and recently underwent a spinal procedure that’s going to take months to recover from, which could lead to a non-tender.

“We faced a similar task last offseason. We’re going to have to replace innings,” Stearns said when asked about the rotation. “Certainly, part of that could potentially be from some of those guys returning or we may look elsewhere. But we’re going to have to add starting pitching. We’re going to have to add multiple starters. We understand that. We went into last offseason with the same need and I think we’ll be able to do it.”

Last winter, the rotation was without Verlander and Scherzer after those trades while Carlos Carrasco had also become a free agent. As mentioned, Stearns gave a one-year deal to Severino while Manaea got two years with an opt-out, and the club also acquired Adrian Houser from Milwaukee.

The Severino and Manaea deals both worked out well, which is why Manaea is now slated to opt-out and is also likely to receive a qualifying offer. Severino could get one as well but is perhaps more of a borderline case, as explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco yesterday.

The Mets could look to bring those guys back, as Stearns said, but the market will have other options. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty will be the top free agents this winter and could command nine-figure deals. Stearns never spent on pitching in that way with the Brewers but was also working with far less spending capacity. He continued to invest somewhat modestly last winter but perhaps could pivot now that the Mets are in a different position than they were a year ago.

If he and the Mets prefer to stick to a lower level of free agency, Manaea, Severino and Quintana will be there alongside guys like Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi and others. Despite all the available payroll space, Stearns said he still planned to explore the trade market, which would be another path to upgrading the rotation. Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell and just some of the names that could speculatively available in that space.

Along somewhat similar lines, there is the Pete Alonso question. Stearns never spent big money on first basemen during his time in Milwaukee, with the three-year, $15MM deal for Eric Thames being his largest investment in that position. Alonso will certainly command more than that and reportedly already turned down an extension offer of $158MM from the Mets in June of 2023, before Stearns was hired.

The merits of spending that kind of money on a first baseman whose contributions are mostly in the power department can be debated, but Alonso is also a franchise icon at this point, thanks to his homegrown status as well as his crowd-pleasing performances in home run derbies and playoff games. Stearns said the club would love to have the Polar Bear back but that Alonso deserves to explore the free agent market.

“All of that is important,” Stearns said, when asked about weighing Alonso as a player but also as a staple of the franchise. “Who Pete is as a person is important. What he means to this franchise is important. Who he is as a player is also important and what he contributes on the field. There’s no magic formula to this. There’s no equation that spits out what all of that is for us. And so, there’s judgment involved. There’s evaluating the market involved. And we’ll see how this process goes throughout the offseason.”

Stearns was also asked about hiring a general manager, which he didn’t seem in a rush to do. Billy Eppler was going to work in that role under Stearns until he stepped down a year ago after it was revealed he was under investigation for the club misusing the injured list. Stearns said he is happy with the current front office makeup and doesn’t plan to do any kind of GM search, though he would consider making a hire if someone intriguing became available.

There’s still plenty to be determined in exactly how the Mets will operate this winter, but given the number of openings on the roster and the club’s spending capacity, it doesn’t seem like anything is off the table at this point.

Six Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

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