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Which Other Postseason Hopefuls Might Have Arms To Spare?

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The Rays made a somewhat unconventional trade Wednesday, shipping right-hander Aaron Civale to the Brewers in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Tampa Bay had the luxury of moving a current member of its rotation despite the fact that the team is still in the Wild Card race and still harbors postseason aspirations. That's due primarily to the organizational depth in the rotation, which was thin earlier in the season but is deepening as the year wears on and as injured arms like Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and (eventually) Drew Rasmussen reenter the fold. Baz will step into the Rays' rotation in Civale's place this Friday.

Most teams don't have that type of cushion. Starting pitching is always at a premium, and starters -- particularly those with multiple years of club control remaining -- tend to be the most coveted asset at nearly every MLB trade deadline.

And yet, the Rays aren't the only club that's poised to operate in this capacity over the next 27 days. There are a handful of teams who could walk the line of dealing from the big league roster -- specifically the rotation -- despite hoping to find themselves playing a prominent role in October baseball. Let's take a look at some possibilities.

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Mariners Claim Duke Ellis From Mets

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The Mariners announced that they have claimed outfielder Duke Ellis off waivers from the Mets and sent him to Triple-A Tacoma. The latter club had designated him for assignment recently. The Mariners already had a vacancy on their 40-man, which is now full.

Ellis, 26, had never appeared on a 40-man roster until a month ago but has now been on three of them in that time. The White Sox selected him on June 4 and he has since bounced to the Mets and now Mariners via waiver claims.

The interest is largely due to his wheels. In his 968 minor league plate appearances, he has a batting line of .241/.329/.333, which translates to an 88 wRC+. However, he stole 117 bases in 134 tries during that time. While he was briefly in the big leagues with the White Sox, he swiped four bags in four tries.

Such players can often carve out roles on contending clubs, particularly with expanded rosters in September. A key pinch running opportunity late in a game can often be the difference between a win and a loss. That’s especially true in the age of the free runner in extra innings.

The Mariners had an open roster spot, so there’s little harm in them grabbing Ellis for now. He can take some at-bats in Tacoma, though perhaps they will try to pass him through waivers at some point down the line or call him up to take advantage of his speed.

Mets Designate Matt Festa For Assignment

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The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve designated right-hander Matt Festa for assignment. His spot on the active roster will go to right-hander Christian Scott, who has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to start today’s game.

Festa, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Mets on May 20 and posted outstanding Triple-A numbers prior to being selected to the MLB roster recently: 15 1/3 innings, 1.76 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate. He only got into one game at the big league level with the Mets, however, and the results were nightmarish. In one inning, he was roughed up for five runs (four earned) on four hits and a walk. That lone frame was enough to inflate his career ERA from 4.32 (in 93 2/3 innings) to 4.66.

A former seventh-round pick, Festa has now pitched in parts of five big league seasons, the other four coming as a member of the Mariners. The 6’1″, 195-pound right-hander has seen his career slowed by injuries, most notably including 2020 Tommy John surgery. That wiped out his entire 2020 campaign and the bulk of his 2021 season as well.

Festa saw big league time in the two years prior to that surgery (2018-19) and the two years following the completion of his rehab (2022-23). In addition to the aforementioned 4.66 ERA in the majors, he’s turned in a sharp 25.1% strikeout rate to go along with plus swinging-strike rates. His 10.9% walk rate is also a couple percentage points worse than the league average, however, and his 92.6 mph average fastball velocity is rather pedestrian.

Beyond his strong showing with the Mets’ Triple-A club, Festa pitched decently with the Padres’ top affiliate in El Paso after signing a minor league deal in the offseason. He logged 16 innings and yielded eight runs, though a .360 average on balls in play didn’t do him any favors in that small sample. He fanned 21.6% of his opponents during that brief stay in the Padres organization and turned in a 9.5% walk rate.

In parts of five Triple-A seasons, Festa has a 2.10 ERA, a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. He’ll be traded or placed on outright waivers within the next five days now that he’s been designated for assignment (and waivers themselves would take another 48 hours). Any team that acquires or claims Festa would need to put him right on the major league roster, as he’s out of minor league options. He’s been outrighted once in the past (2020), so Festa would have the right to reject a Triple-A assignment if he goes unclaimed on waivers.

MLBTR Podcast: The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

* This podcast was recorded on the evening of July 2, before the Rays traded Aaron Civale to the Brewers.

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What are the Astros going to do at the deadline? (42:15)
  • The Rangers are terrible but are World Series champions for the first time. Can they sell even if it’s the best thing for the team? (46:50)
  • Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris says the club could buy or sell. What do the final months of the season look like in Detroit? (54:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Kodai Senga To Begin Rehab Assignment; Mets To Recall Christian Scott

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It seems reinforcements for the Mets’ rotation are on the horizon. Right-hander Kodai Senga, who’s missed the entire season thus far with a shoulder injury, is slated to throw 40 pitches in the first start of a minor league rehab assignment, per Will Sammon of The Athletic. New York will also recall top prospect Christian Scott from Triple-A Syracuse to start Wednesday’s game, manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed to reporters (X link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Speculation regarding that possibility began when Scott was scratched from a scheduled start in Syracuse despite not having an injury.

Senga suffered a moderate capsule strain in his shoulder back in spring training. What was originally supposed to be a much shorter absence has been prolonged by multiple setbacks. Senga was facing live hitters in late April but scaled back to bullpen sessions without hitters as he looked to get his mechanics back on track. While going through that step, he incurred a triceps injury that necessitated a cortisone injection and led to another five-day shutdown. He’s been built up slowly but now seems ready to pitch in a game setting. He’ll surely require multiple rehab starts before he’s cleared to return. Tomorrow’s start will kick off a 30-day rehab window, though he can be activated earlier than that 30-day maximum, of course.

As for Scott, he’ll return to the big leagues after impressing in his first five MLB starts earlier this season. The 2021 fifth-rounder tossed 27 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA ball with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 34.2% grounder rate and 0.98 HR/9. Since returning to the minors, Scott has made four starts but been limited to 17 innings as the Mets look to manage his workload.

The 25-year-old Scott tossed only 87 2/3 innings last year and is already up to 70 innings this season. Managing his workload in the minors is easier than doing so in the majors, where the surging Mets have climbed back to .500 and thrust themselves into the midst of the NL Wild Card picture. Scott will now step back into the rotation alongside Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and David Peterson.

The looming changes to the Mets’ rotation come at a time when there have been rumblings about the team’s willingness to potentially move a veteran big league starter while still taking aim at pushing for the postseason. A trade involving staff leader Severino seems quite difficult to envision — and indeed, SNY’s Andy Martino reported yesterday is overwhelmingly unlikely so long as the team remains in playoff reach — but Quintana seems feasible (speculatively speaking).

The Mets have a growing collection of depth, with Severino, Manaea, Quintana, Peterson and Scott in the majors, Senga on the mend, and the trio of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto on the 40-man roster down in Triple-A. Last year’s second-round pick, Brandon Sproat, has a sub-2.00 ERA in 67 innings between High-A and Double-A this season.

Senga’s progress and Scott’s performance in his big league return will be worth watching with a careful eye, as they’ll both be factors in the Mets’ willingness (or lack thereof) to deal from the big league staff in the weeks ahead. If the rotation depth looks sufficient, perhaps a veteran like Quintana could be flipped for some big league bullpen help — the sort of exchange between buyers that could fill needs on both clubs (while, in the Mets’ case, potentially shaving as much as $13MM from the books between Quintana’s salary and luxury-tax hit).

The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

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With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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Mets Currently Have Buyer Mentality, Could Focus On Bullpen Help

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A month ago, the Mets looked like also-rans in the National League playoff picture. They followed up a 9-19 showing in the month of May with a pair of losses to begin June, but the Mets have since turned things around in dramatic fashion, going 16-6 over their past 22 games. Manager Carlos Mendoza’s squad is still a game under .500 and has minimal hope of catching the best-in-MLB Phillies (55-29), who lead the NL East by a margin of eight games over the Braves and 13.5 games ahead of New York. However, even at 40-41, the Mets are only two games out of the final spot for the final National League Wild Card spot.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that as things stand right now, the Mets are approaching the July 30 deadline with an eye toward adding to the team. President of baseball operations David Stearns tells Heyman that the bullpen, specifically, is an “area of the team we’re going to continue to monitor.”

Mets relievers rank 14th in the majors with a 3.77 earned run average. Both their 3.73 FIP and 3.47 SIERA rank more favorably among MLB clubs, and the Mets’ bullpen leads all of baseball with a 26.8% strikeout rate on the season. They’re not without their flaws, however. The bullpen in Queens has a 10.5% walk rate that ranks as the fifth-worst in MLB. The Mets also just lost righty Drew Smith to probable Tommy John surgery, and they’ve had an uneven season from closer Edwin Diaz. The Mets’ $102MM closer posted a 5.40 ERA in 20 innings before landing on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement, returned to rattle off three straight scoreless innings (three strikeouts, no walks) — but then was hit with a 10-game ban following a failed foreign substance check in his most recent appearance.

For much of the season, the focus on the Mets has been about who they might have to peddle to contending clubs at the deadline. Pete Alonso’s name, in particular, has been a hotly debated topic, though Heyman writes that as of this time, the slugger “isn’t going anywhere.” So long as the Mets remain in arm’s reach of a postseason bid — particularly with considerable momentum on their side after their play in the past three weeks — it seems they’ll avoid straight sell-side transactions.

That said, both Heyman and SNY’s John Harper suggest there’s room for the Mets to walk both paths. New York’s pitching depth is improving with Kodai Senga on the mend. The Mets have several starters on short-term deals — Luis Severino and Jose Quintana most notably. The Post’s Mike Puma reported yesterday that the Mets could look to move some veteran starters, knowing that Senga is progressing toward a return while top prospect Christian Scott and young righty Jose Butto continue to impress in the upper minors.

Among their short-term veterans, Severino would presumably have the most value but is also the least likely to change hands. The longtime Yankee hurler has posted a 3.42 ERA in a team-high 97 1/3 innings with strong walk (8%) and ground-ball (50%) rates. Severino has a career-low marks in strikeout rate (18.5%) and swinging-strike rate (8.3%), but his revamped, sinker-heavy approach has nonetheless yielded impressive results. Moving him would register as a surprise, given that he’s presumably viewed as a leading candidate to make playoff starts, alongside a hopefully healthy Senga.

Lefty Sean Manaea, too, can become a free agent at season’s end. There are different sorts of hurdles when it comes to trading him. The veteran southpaw has turned in a 3.89 ERA in 76 1/3 innings with a strong 23.6% strikeout rate but also a career-worst 10.6% walk rate. More concerning for interested teams than his walk rate, though, would be the lefty’s contract. He inked a two-year, $28MM contract over the winter, but the second season of that deal is a $13.5MM player option.

Broadly speaking, teams are reluctant to trade for players who have player options and/or opt-out clauses on their contracts. Those clauses are pure downside for the acquiring team. If the player performs well or exceeds expectations post-trade, he’s all but assured taking the out clause and becoming a free agent. If said player incurs an injury or performs poorly, the acquiring team could be stuck with an additional year(s) of the player on a contract that outpaces his market value. Effectively, if the player performs well post-trade, he becomes a rental. If he plays poorly or gets hurt, it becomes an underwater multi-year contract.

Of the team’s veteran starters, Quintana might be the most straightforward option to change hands. The 35-year-old has had some struggles this season, posting a 4.57 ERA and proving uncharacteristically susceptible to home runs (1.42 HR/9). Quintana has a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate but a sharp 8.1% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a strong 44.5% clip.

Quintana has also pitched much better of late. An eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Rays back on May 3 represents nearly 20% of the lefty’s total earned runs this season. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of his 16 starts this season and owns a tidy 3.70 ERA over his past eight trips to the hill. Quintana is earning $13MM this season, with about $6.36MM of that sum yet to be paid out as of this writing. For the Mets, there’s some extra incentive to shed some of that salary; they’re paying a 110% tax on it because of their current luxury tax status. Though Quintana himself is only owed that remaining $6.36MM, trading him would save the Mets just shy of $13.5MM when factor in luxury tax considerations.

It bears emphasizing that there’s no indication the Mets view shedding a veteran starter as a necessity or even a likelihood. Being open-minded to that sort of move is nothing new for Stearns, who made several trades of big league players during his time atop the Brewers’ front office — even when the Brewers were in the midst of a contending season. And, as with most teams currently on the Wild Card bubble, the current mentality is presumably subject to change. The Mets played themselves into this spot with a torrid late-June showing, but it stands to reason that if the pendulum swings in the other direction and they lose several games in a row to fall considerably further back in the standings as the trade deadline draws nearer, they’d consider operating more as a conventional seller.

Mets Select Matt Festa, Tyler Jay; Designate Duke Ellis

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The Mets announced a set of roster moves, including the news that right-hander Matt Festa and left-hander Tyler Jay have had their contracts selected from Triple-A Syracuse.  The two pitchers will take the 26-man roster spots created when Tylor Megill and Danny Young were optioned to Triple-A yesterday.  To create room on the 40-man roster, the Mets designated outfielder Duke Ellis for assignment, and moved left-hander Brooks Raley (who had Tommy John surgery last month) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL.

Festa and Jay will provide the struggling Mets bullpen with a couple of fresh arms.  Young had been pitching well before a downturn over the last week, as the southpaw has allowed two earned runs in each of his last three outings.  This ballooned Young’s ERA to 5.11 over 12 1/3 innings, after he’d posted a sparkling 0.87 ERA in his first 10 1/3 frames.

Young threw 1 1/3 innings in New York’s 9-6 loss to the Astros yesterday, and Megill got the start and gave up four runs over 5 1/3 frames of work.  Megill has a 5.08 ERA over 39 innings and eight starts, with all but one of those starts coming after a seven-week stint on the IL due to a shoulder strain.

With Megill struggling, his demotion was seen as a way for the Mets to bring some relief help up from Triple-A over the next four days.  The Athletic’s Will Sammon figures that the Mets will call up one of Christian Scott or Jose Butto to take Megill’s place in the rotation, and the team could need to cycle several arms through the rotation and bullpen in order to get through a tough stretch of the schedule.  Last Thursday marked the Mets’ last off-day until the All-Star break, as the club is two games into a string of 17 games in as many days.

For Festa, he’ll now be in line for his first big league action of the 2024 season, and the Brooklyn native will have the bonus of pitching close to home.  The 31-year-old Festa signed a minor league contract with the Mets last month after he was released from his minor league deal with the Padres, as a 4.50 ERA in 16 innings with San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate didn’t catch the Friars’ attention.  Festa has looked quite good in Syracuse, however, delivering a 1.76 ERA in 15 1/3 relief innings.  A veteran of four MLB seasons with the Mariners, Festa has a 4.32 ERA over 93 2/3 career frames in the Show.

Jay is back in the majors for the second time this season, as New York designated him for assignment and then outrighted the southpaw to Triple-A after throwing four innings over two appearances with the Mets back in April.  These two games marked Jay’s first taste of MLB action, as the sixth overall pick of the 2015 draft finally made it to the big leagues after a long journey marked by injuries and stints in independent ball.

Ellis also made his Major League debut this season, appearing in eight games for the White Sox (mostly as a defensive sub and pinch-runner) before Chicago designated him for assignment two weeks ago.  The Mets claimed Ellis away on waivers, but he only played in two games with Double-A Binghampton before returning to the DFA wire.  Ellis has hit only .241/.329/.333 over 965 career plate appearances in the minors, but he is known for his excellent baserunning, as he has 117 steals in 134 chances during his minor league career.  This speed and his ability to play all three outfield spots makes him an interesting pickup for any other clubs that might be looking to the waiver wire for outfield depth.

Drew Smith Likely To Require Tommy John Surgery

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Mets right-hander Drew Smith says that his ulnar collateral ligament has significant damage and will likely require Tommy John surgery, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. The righty is getting a second opinion but seems slated for a lengthy absence.

If surgery is ultimately required, it’s terrible timing for Smith. He is set for free agency at the end of this season and was putting up some decent numbers. He has made 19 appearances for the Mets so far this year, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine innings. His 11.4% walk rate is a bit high but he’s countered that with a strong 29.1% strikeout rate.

He’s also been playing a key role in the club’s bullpen in recent years, with two saves and six holds here in 2024. He also saved three games last year and got double-digit hold numbers in each of the previous two seasons. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has a 3.35 ERA in 161 1/3 innings with a 26.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate.

That would have been a decent platform to take into free agency if he were healthy and continued pitching well for the next few months. Instead, it seems likely that he’ll be going into the open market while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. He already went under the knife in March of 2019, missing that season and most of 2020.

An emotional Smith spoke to reporters, with video relayed on X by SNYtv. As Smith himself articulated, there’s never a good time to undergo this kind of procedure but it would be especially frustrating for it to both conclude his time with the Mets and also hamper him going into his first trip to free agency.

Players in this position will sometimes find two-year deals, with the signing club aware that they are unlikely to get much return on their investment in the first year, but hopefully getting a bounceback at a discount in the second year. He’s already on the 15-day injured list and will likely be transferred to the 60-day IL once the Mets need his roster spot.

For the Mets, this will give them a bit less bullpen depth for the rest of the year. They’ve already lost Brooks Raley to Tommy John surgery while Sean Reid-Foley and Shintaro Fujinami are also on the IL at the moment. Edwin Díaz is a big question mark at the moment as he has struggled in his return after missing all of last year and is currently serving a ten-game sticky stuff suspension.

Despite some challenges, the Mets are just one game back of a playoff spot at the moment. If they hang around for the next month, they could perhaps look to upgrade their relief corps at the deadline, though a significant losing streak could also push them into seller position.

Mets Outright Joe Hudson

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June 27: Hudson cleared outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Syracuse, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

June 24: The Mets have designated catcher Joe Hudson for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the roster will go to fellow backstop Luis Torrens, who has been reinstated from the paternity list.

The journeyman Hudson was selected to the Mets’ roster earlier this month in advance of the team’s London showdown against the Phillies. He only wound up appearing in one major league game, however, and he did not take an appearance at the plate.

This brief stint was the 33-year-old Hudson’s first appearance on a major league roster since 2020. He’s tallied 18 games in the majors over the course of a 13-year pro career, picking up 33 plate appearances in that short time. Hudson is 5-for-30 with a double, two walks and six strikeouts in the majors. The former sixth-rounder is a career .229/.333/.398 hitter in six Triple-A seasons — including a .237/.392/.441 showing in 21 games with the Mets’ Syracuse affiliate this year.

The Mets will have a week to attempt to pass Hudson through outright waivers, trade him or release him.

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