The job of a Major League general manager is an extremely demanding one. Player acquisitions are complicated, from trading with other teams to negotiating with agents. Beyond working with the rest of the baseball operations staff on transactions and contract issues, the GM must communicate with scouts, coaches, medical staff, and the media, and prepare for the draft. Our question today: who's the best? Please note that while some of these people do not technically have the title of GM, they seem to be the team's closest approximation.
MLBTR Polls
Poll: Should Rangers Trade Profar For Taveras?
The Rangers and Cardinals have not discussed the possibility of trading top shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar for top outfield prospect Oscar Taveras, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. A trade of the two teams' No. 1 prospects would make a great deal of sense in terms of those teams' needs, but it would be tough to pull off. "The Cardinals need a shortstop. The Rangers need an outfielder. The answer is there for both for years to come," one American League official tells Goold. "You just can’t do it. You can’t be the guy who is wrong if one works out and becomes a star as expected and the other doesn’t. Then you’re the new Brock-for-Broglio guy."
Nonetheless, it's a tantalizing trade idea. Deals centered around two highly-touted youngsters happen very rarely, but they're exciting when they do. The Rays' trade of Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie to Minnesota for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan is one of the few recent examples. In any case, it doesn't sound like the Profar-for-Taveras deal is in the offing. "[T]he reality is we have just gotten to the point we wanted with our farm system — with more elite talent back and set to contribute to the major-league club," says Cardinals GM John Mozeliak. "I’m not in the mood to start breaking it up."
Should this deal happen, though? In Profar, the Cardinals would get a long-term answer at shortstop, where they're currently starting Pete Kozma. Meanwhile, the Rangers would acquire a premium hitting prospect at a position that isn't shortstop, where they have Elvis Andrus signed to a long-term deal.
Profar and Taveras are too valuable for positional need to be the most important variable when considering a trade. After all, an injury easily could clear a spot for either player in his current organization, and positional logjams tend to resolve themselves over time. The Cardinals could deal an outfielder, or lose one to injury. The Rangers could eventually move Ian Kinsler to first. Before trading Profar or Taveras, you would need to be confident the other was the better player. Taveras has had the better hitting numbers, but Profar is younger and plays the tougher defensive position. Scouts love both of them, comparing Profar to Barry Larkin and Taveras to Vladimir Guerrero.
Let's consider the deal from the Rangers' perspective. If you were Rangers GM Jon Daniels, would you trade Profar for Oscar Taveras?
Poll: Which 2011 Top Pick Will Have The Best Career?
The Nationals have promoted third baseman Anthony Rendon and moved Ryan Zimmerman to the disabled list, the Washington Times' Amanda Comak reports. Rendon was fairly widely considered the top talent in the 2011 amateur draft, but he fell to the Nats at No. 6 due to concerns about his health. Those concerns have proven to be well-founded, as injuries have limited Rendon to fewer than 200 minor-league at bats since being drafted. Still, only four 2011 first-round draft picks (Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Jose Fernandez and Jackie Bradley, Jr.) beat Rendon to the majors.
With Rendon's promotion in mind, which top-ten pick from the 2011 draft do you think will have the most success in the majors? (The Marlins took Fernandez with the No. 14 overall pick, so he isn't an option here.) The 2011 top ten has so far been a mixed bag, combining some stellar performances with plenty of questions.
1. Gerrit Cole, Pirates. Cole has stayed healthy with the Bucs, and is now in Triple-A Indianapolis after pitching 132 innings at three levels in 2012, striking out around a batter per inning. His minor-league numbers have been good but not overwhelming, although his 100-MPH fastball and plus slider give him plenty of upside.
2. Danny Hultzen, Mariners. Hultzen struggled at the Triple-A level in 2012, with 7.95 BB/9 in 48 2/3 innings, but he seems to have taken a step forward in 2013 (albeit in a small sample, as is the case for all 2013 performances mentioned here), walking just six in 22 2/3 innings so far. Hultzen appears to be on track to become a rotation mainstay in Seattle, although he probably still lacks the ceiling of Cole, Bundy or Archie Bradley.
3. Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks. Bauer shot through the minor leagues soon after being drafted, but the Diamondbacks quickly gave up on him, shipping him to Cleveland in the Shin-Soo Choo trade and grumbling about his attitude. Bauer had one wobbly start for the Indians this year, but has pitched well so far for Triple-A Columbus.
4. Dylan Bundy, Orioles. Bundy made it all the way to the big leagues as a 19-year-old in 2012, after a stunning pro debut that included a ridiculous 40:2 K:BB ratio at Class A Delmarva and a strong performance for Double-A Bowie. He has yet to pitch in 2013, however, after being shut down in March with elbow and forearm tightness.
5. Bubba Starling, Royals. The first hitter chosen in the 2011 draft was raw when selected, and the Royals have moved slowly with Starling, sending him to short-season Burlington in 2012. He hit .275/.371/.485 there, but he's off to a slow start in 2013 for Class A Lexington, hitting .143/.213/.250 so far.
6. Anthony Rendon, Nationals.
7. Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks. Bradley posted good strikeout numbers in Class A South Bend as a 19-year-old in 2012, but walked 5.56 BB/9 in 136 innings there. In his first three 2013 starts with Class A+ Visalia, he's shown improved control, and the results thus far have been spectacular, with 27 whiffs and six walks in his first 17 innings.
8. Francisco Lindor, Indians. The young shortstop hit well for an 18-year-old last season at Class A Lake County, batting .257/.352/.355, and also earned praise for his defense. He's off to a great start so far at Class A+ Carolina, hitting .348/.423/.522 in his first 46 at bats.
9. Javier Baez, Cubs. Baez was terrific in 2012 for Class A Peoria, but struggled a bit in Class A+ Daytona and hasn't hit much so far this year after the Cubs sent him back there.That's not necessarily a warning sign for a very young shortstop who has mostly won glowing reviews for his work in the Cubs system so far, however.
10. Cory Spangenberg, Padres. Spangenberg is the only 2011 top-ten pick who doesn't yet have a strong, age-appropriate pro performance to his credit. He hit very well in short-season Eugene after being drafted, but that's to be expected from a college hitter selected in the first round. Since then, the second baseman has struggled at the plate, mostly at Class A+ Lake Elsinore.
Poll: Next Offseason’s Best Free Agent Hitter
MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently asked readers to vote on who the best starting pitcher of the coming offseason will be, and Josh Johnson led the way with nearly 20 percent of the vote.
The market for free agent hitters seems more concrete, given the fact that Robinson Cano's contract expires at the end of this season. However, many fans — including more than 78 percent of MLBTR readers who responded to Jeff Todd's poll – believe that the Yankees and Cano will agree to an extension prior to season's end.
In that instance, the free agent class shapes up much, much differently. Jacoby Ellsbury currently ranks second on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, but health is always a factor for Ellsbury, who missed more than 200 games from 2010-12. Other names on the current edition of that list include Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, Brian McCann and Chase Utley.
Beyond that, a look at the class as a whole features some intriguing hitters, including Corey Hart, Justin Morneau, Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran and Nelson Cruz, to name a few.
Any one of these hitters could turn in a monster season and significantly boost his stock. Who's going to top the list?
Next Offseason’s Best Free Agent Starter
With Adam Wainwright off the market due to a long-term extension, starting pitching will not be a strength of the 2013-14 free agent class. Big names like Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum have struggled in the early going, while Matt Garza has yet to make his season debut. There's an opening for a surprise candidate to end up being the most popular free agent starter. Make your pick in our latest poll.
Poll: Will The Yankees Extend Robinson Cano?
A year ago today, MLBTR asked its readers to weigh in on whether Cole Hamels would reach an extension with the Phillies. The result was a virtual deadlock, with 50.85% of voters saying that Hamels would not re-up with the Phils, and would instead enter free agency as perhaps the top player available. It took a while, but Hamels ultimately did reach a massive extension with Philadephia.
Now, we want your opinion on this year’s biggest would-be free agent. The game’s best second baseman, 30-year-old Robinson Cano, was an easy choice for MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes at the top of the 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings. Cano promises to hit the market as a franchise player in his prime, unless the Yankees extend him first.
The Yankees are obviously interested in doing just that, and indeed reportedly made Cano a “significant offer” earlier this year. Shortly thereafter, of course, we learned that Cano had fired agent Scott Boras in favor of CAA and Jay-Z’s Roc Nation Sports. While there are a range of opinions on the meaning of the switch, some interpret it as a clear sign that Cano intends to stay in pinstripes.
On the other hand, the Yankees are reportedly determined to get the team’s 2014 salary under the $189MM luxury tax threshold. With Cano’s relative youth, consistent excellence, and outstanding record of durability portending a long deal at a high average annual value, it could be a challenge for the Yanks to structure an extension with Cano that allows the team to meet its salary goal.
Poll: When Will Giancarlo Stanton Be Traded?
The Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton hit 93 home runs in his first 371 games, leading MLB in slugging percentage last year as a 22-year-old. He's under team control through 2016 and hasn't gotten expensive yet. The Marlins sliced payroll drastically in the November blockbuster with the Blue Jays, but Stanton won't even be arbitration eligible until after this season. If we look at the examples of Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett, they were traded with three years of big league service time, a point Stanton will reach after this season.
The 2005 Marlins were trying to win, however, and that's probably why Beckett was dealt after the season rather than during it. Cabrera was not dealt as part of the team's fire sale during the 2005-06 offseason, but rather after the '07 season. So, Cabrera stayed with the club for two full post-fire sale seasons.
When star shortstop Hanley Ramirez had two years of big league service, the Marlins signed him to a record-setting six-year extension. He remained with the team for the first three-plus years of that deal, and was traded to the Dodgers after a notable decline in performance.
Your turn to weigh in: with nearly every team in baseball wanting to get their hands on Giancarlo Stanton, when will he be traded?
Poll: The Most One-Sided Trade Of The Last Decade
Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke last week about how his team nearly traded Mariano Rivera to the Mariners for Felix Fermin in 1996. As some commenters pointed out, that wouldn't have been the first time Fermin was involved in a one-sided trade. The Indians traded Jay Bell to the Pirates for Fermin (and another unspectacular player, Denny Gonzalez). Cleveland then made good on its own bad trade by shipping Fermin and Reggie Jefferson to Seattle for Omar Vizquel.
One-sided trades on that scale are probably somewhat less likely now than they were 20 years ago, but they still happen. So what's the most one-sided trade of the past ten years? Here are some contenders. Keep in mind that and the Rangers' swap of Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese happened in 2002, just outside the ten-year window, and so did the Expos' infamous trade of Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.
Also, this list doesn't include many trades from the past few seasons, since the players involved haven't had the chance to create value for their new teams. For example, many fans thought the Royals' trade of Wil Myers and other prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis was one-sided, but Myers and company haven't had the opportunity to prove that yet.
Pirates trade Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton to Cubs for Jose Hernandez, Bobby Hill and Matt Bruback (2003). Dire financial straits forced the Pirates to deal the 25-year-old Ramirez for virtually nothing. Hernandez left for Los Angeles after the 2003 season, Hill played for a couple years as a spare infielder, and Bruback never made it to the majors. Ramirez, meanwhile, hit 25 or more home runs seven times for the Cubs, and Lofton hit well down the stretch in 2003 to help Chicago make the playoffs.
Giants trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser to Twins for A.J. Pierzynski (2003). Pierzynski only played one season for the Giants, while Nathan blossomed into one of the best closers of his generation. Liriano became one of the best pitching prospects in baseball soon after the trade. He never quite lived up to his billing, but if he had, this trade probably would have been the most one-sided on this list.
Diamondbacks trade Jorge de la Rosa, Chris Capuano, Lyle Overbay, Craig Counsell Junior Spivey and Chad Moeller to Brewers for Richie Sexson, Shane Nance and Noochie Varner (2003). The Diamondbacks dealt a number of useful players for one year of Richie Sexson, whose tenure in Arizona quickly went south when he got hurt. The Diamondbacks had just acquired De la Rosa, along with Casey Fossum and Brandon Lyon, when they dealt Curt Schilling to the Red Sox, another poor trade.
Mariners trade Carlos Guillen to Tigers for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (2004). That's not Juan Gonzalez the power hitter — this Juan Gonzalez never made the majors. Two of Bill Bavasi's first big moves as Mariners GM were to deal Guillen (a perfectly functional young shortstop) and replace him with free agent Rich Aurilia, who was already on the downslope of his career. Aurilia was a bust with the Mariners, and Santiago did next to nothing for them. Meanwhile, Guillen suddenly emerged as a fearsome hitter in Detroit and was named to three All-Star teams as a Tiger.
Mets trade Scott Kazmir and Joselo Diaz to Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato (2004). The Kazmir trade might not have had the same impact as some others on this list (although Kazmir certainly had a strong career in Tampa), but it stood out as being a poor idea for the Mets at the time, and it didn't get any better with age. Zambrano had led the AL in walks in 2003, and managed to do it again in 2004 despite being shipped to the NL in July. The Mets couldn't fix him, and Kazmir almost immediately turned into the strong starting pitcher that Zambrano never had much chance of becoming.
Athletics trade Tim Hudson to Braves for Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer and Charles Thomas (2004). The Tim Hudson trade was nearly as bad for the A's as the Mark Mulder trade, below, was good. Cruz pitched horribly in Oakland before reestablishing himself in Arizona. Meyer, the key prospect in the deal, immediately stalled out in Triple-A. And Thomas never made an impact. Hudson remains productive eight years after the deal, although perhaps not at salaries the A's would prefer to pay.
Cardinals trade Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton to Athletics for Mark Mulder (2004). Mulder was an enormous disappointment in St. Louis, putting up only one productive season before his career was undone by injuries. Haren, meanwhile, became exactly what the Cardinals probably hoped Mulder would be, pitching 216 or more high-quality innings in seven straight seasons. Calero also added two good years out of the Oakland bullpen, and while Barton's career never really took off, he did have a strong season in 2010.
Athletics trade Andre Ethier to Dodgers for Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez (2005). Bradley was as injury-prone as he was talented and angry, and he couldn't stay on the field with the A's, who ultimately sent him to the Padres for Andrew Brown. Ethier, meanwhile, became exactly the sort of cost-controlled, effective player the A's love, but he did it for Los Angeles.
Rangers trade Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young and Terrmel Sledge to Padres for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and Billy Killian (2006). Gonzalez was blocked by Mark Teixeira in Texas, but the San Diego native immediately blossomed into a hometown star with the Padres. Young, an extreme fly ball pitcher, proved to be a perfect fit in home-run-stifling PETCO Park, putting up good numbers for his first two years there before succumbing to injuries. Otsuka put in two good seasons in the Texas bullpen. Eaton had always been a frustrating pitcher and little more, and his career quickly went downhill after the trade. Killian never made it to the majors.
Indians trade Brandon Phillips to Reds for Jeff Stevens (2006). Phillips and Cliff Lee were both a part of perhaps the most lopsided trade of the millennium, and they both continued to be involved in one-sided trades after that. None of the four teams that have traded Lee have gotten good value for him, and the Indians got very little for Phillips when they shipped the then-frustrating former top prospect to Cincinnati, where he promptly became one of baseball's best second basemen.
Mariners trade Shin-Soo Choo and Shawn Nottingham to Indians for Ben Broussard (2006). Choo became a fixture in the Cleveland outfield after breaking out with a .309/.397/.549 performance in 2008, while Broussard had two middling seasons as a part-time player in Seattle.
Phillies trade Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd to White Sox for Freddy Garcia (2006). Garcia pitched 58 poor innings with the Phillies before departing via free agency. Floyd developed into a solid starter, while the several teams who traded Gonzalez probably all wish they hadn't.
Braves trade Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Beau Jones to Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay (2007). It's tough to acquire a player as good as Mark Teixeira and still be the victim of a lopsided trade, but that's exactly what the Braves did, as Andrus and Harrison became minor stars in Texas, and Feliz became a dominant closer (for two years, at least), all at low prices. The Braves later dealt Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and minor-leaguer Steve Marek, receiving pennies on the dollar for their initial investment.
Twins trade Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie (2007). At the time, this looked like a reasonable, albeit risky, exchange of talent for both teams. Young had batted .288/.316/.408 as a 21-year-old the previous year, and was less than five years removed from being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft. He never blossomed in Minnesota, though, and both Garza and Bartlett became key parts of the first-ever winning Rays team.
Padres trade David Freese to Cardinals for Jim Edmonds (2007). Freese had posted excellent numbers in the Padres' minor-league system, and the Cardinals helped him become one of the league's better third basemen. Edmonds, meanwhile, played horribly for the Padres, who released him after only 103 plate appearances.
Mariners trade Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler to Orioles for Erik Bedard (2008). When healthy, Bedard pitched well in Seattle, but he started more than 16 games for the Mariners only once before being shipped to Boston. Meanwhile, Jones now looks like an emerging superstar, and Tillman, still just 24, is coming off a good half-season in the Orioles rotation.
Pirates trade Jose Bautista to Blue Jays for Robinzon Diaz (2008). The Pirates were in rebuilding mode in 2008 when they shipped Bautista north in exchange for an obscure minor-league catcher. In Pittsburgh, Bautista had been a poor defensive player who couldn't hit for average and didn't have much to recommend him except his ability to draw walks. In Toronto, he unexpectedly became one of baseball's best power hitters. Diaz got a grand total of 144 plate appearances in Pittsburgh.
White Sox trade Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira to Yankees for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez (2008). One can hardly blame the White Sox for feeling frustrated with Swisher, for whom they'd traded Gio Gonzalez the previous offseason. But after a down year in Chicago, the White Sox sent him to New York for Wilson Betemit and … well, not much.
Phillies trade Cliff Lee to Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez (2009). This is arguably the second-worst of the Cliff Lee trades, in that the Phillies didn't get anyone who looked like an impact player, even at the time.
Angels trade Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera to Blue Jays for Vernon Wells (2011). Even putting aside Napoli's brilliant 2011 season with the Rangers, this was a remarkable trade, in that the Jays only paid $5MM of the remaining $86MM on Wells' contract, despite Wells' uneven performances in the past. Wells has yet to post an OPS north of .682 in Anaheim.
Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Best Offseason Acquisition
No one can accuse Diamondbacks General Manager Kevin Towers of taking it easy this winter. The D'Backs finished with a .500 record in 2012 and made some significant changes in an effort to improve going forward. Arizona first made headlines with a three-team deal in October, but there was plenty that followed. Here's a recap of their most significant moves..
- Arizona landed reliever Heath Bell, infielder Cliff Pennington, and cash considerations in a three-team deal with the Marlins and A's. The D'Backs sent outfielder Chris Young and $500K to the A's in the swap.
- As a part of the three-team Shin-Soo Choo deal, the Diamondbacks acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius, left-handed pitcher Tony Sipp, and first baseman Lars Anderson from the Indians for right-handed pitchers Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, and Bryan Shaw.
- The Diamondbacks signed right-hander Brandon McCarthy to a two-year, $15.5MM deal. McCarthy missed significant time in 2012 but posted a 3.24 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 111 innings when he was healthy.
- Just before Christmas, the D'Backs signed Cody Ross to a three-year, $26MM deal. The pact includes a club option for $9.5MM that can be bought out for just $1MM.
- The addition of Ross meant that an outfielder had to go and it wound up being Justin Upton. Towers sent Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson to the Braves for third baseman Martin Prado, right-hander Randall Delgado, shortstop prospect Nick Ahmed, right-handed pitching prospect Zeke Spruill, and minor league first baseman Brandon Drury.
Earlier today we learned that the D'Backs are looking to trade veteran John McDonald, but Arizona has pretty much gotten all of their heavy lifting out of the way this offseason. It's your turn to weigh in – what was their best acquisition of the winter?
Poll: Which Options Will Vest For 2014?
A few weeks ago, we looked back at vesting options from over the last three years and found that just 29% of them have been triggered. The requirements for an option year to vest often seem attainable when the contract is signed, but either injuries or simply age can get in the way of those plans. When looking at the players who have 2014 options tied to their 2013 performance, it seems like a lot of them could be eligible for the open market next winter.
The Orioles' Wilson Betemit needs 324 plate appearances to reach a combined 700 between 2012 and '13, but the emergence of Manny Machado may cut into his playing time. Lance Berkman can cash in on a $13MM salary for 2014 with 550 plate appearances, but he'll obviously need his knee to hold up in Texas order to approach that mark. Jamey Carroll can guarantee a $2MM salary for 2014 by reaching 401 plate appearances, a mark that he has comfortably surpassed in each of the last two seasons. Roy Halladay has to tally up a jaw-dropping 259 innings to guarantee an extra year at $20MM, but it should be noted that he came close to that number just three years ago. Barry Zito has an easier path to riches as he needs 200 innings on the mound for his $18MM option to vest. Johan Santana could be back in Queens for $25MM if he tallies 215 innings or wins the Cy Young. The former is obviously more realistic but that is still a lofty goal for him given his injury troubles.
It's time to place your bets. Which of these options do you think will vest for 2014?
