MLBTR Polls

In his first piece for MLBTR’s newly-minted newsletter (subscribe in the sidebar at the right), Tim Dierkes argued that the Brewers ought to strongly consider dealing star center fielder Carlos Gomez. As he explained, Gomez has immense present value that is probably worth more to another club than to Milwaukee.

Nothing has changed since that time, as the Brewers remain buried in a highly competitive NL Central. True, Gomez has battled through some relatively minor injury issues, but he’s also bounced back from a tepid start. Over the month of May, he slashed .265/.318/.461 with four home runs and five stolen bases — numbers that fall shy of his impressive output over the last two seasons but nevertheless suggest he’s well on his way to getting back on track.

Best of all, of course, is the fact that Gomez is owed only $9MM for next season and the balance of an $8MM salary this year. That puts him within reach of any team in baseball — remember, the Royals took on even more salary when they acquired James Shields — and makes him the rare premium player who is both available and affordable. A team weighing the departure of big-named prospects would be comforted by the knowledge both that Gomez would remain a big trade piece next summer or in the offseason (remember, that’s what the A’s did with Jeff Samardzija) and that the team would stand to recoup a draft pick through the qualifying offer if they kept him for the duration of his contract.

An impact player with a budget contract ought to bring back a big return. In his second newsletter, Tim listed several plausible suitors and interesting trade pieces that the Brewers could pursue. He tabs the Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Angels as the most likely possible trade partners.

As Tim argued, it’s entirely possible that Milwaukee could actually improve its near-term and long-term outlook by moving Gomez (if not also stud catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who the club will likely be less amenable to discussing). But all the things that make Gomez so appealing to the rest of the league also make him a rare commodity for a smaller-budget club like the Brewers.

So, we’ll ask the MLBTR readers: would the Brewers be better off dealing Gomez, or holding onto him in hopes of building around him for another season?

It’s not often we see a baseball move that is truly out of the ordinary, but the Marlins gave us one yesterday. While moving Dan Jennings from the GM role to that of manager is not without precedent, it is nonetheless quite unusual, and his lack of significant professional experience as a professional coach or player certainly sets it further apart.

We heard plenty of opinions on the subject yesterday, many of them focused on the jarring nature of the decision, others very nearly questioning the sanity and/or professionalism of owner Jeffrey Loria.

Needless to say, on balance, the reaction has been strongly negative. A variety of factors have been cited as setting Jennings up for failure, in spite of his good personal reputation around the game.

As I noted in the above-linked post, however, the hiring of Jennings is, if nothing else, rather interesting. The Marlins front office will, in a very real sense, be a part of the team (as distinguished from the organization) on a day-to-day basis, sharing in the ups and downs along with the players. Far from a suit in a private suite, the former GM (who’ll still have a heavy role in player personnel) will be in uniform, in the dugout, on the road, staring down the microphones of the press. Of course, he’ll also be a constant reminder that ballplayers — most of them, anyway — are constantly playing for their jobs.

Loria has struck gold with mid-season managerial changes before. For a team that hoped for much better than its 16-23 start to the season, might this be a worthwhile experiment? Let’s see what the MLBTR readers think:

It’s not often that we see significant trades this early in the season, but special circumstances led to the deal that sent Josh Hamilton from the Angels back to the Rangers. Timing is not the only reason that the trade was unique; Hamilton’s sacrifice of guaranteed money is a rarity, too.

While reports are still emerging on the complicated arrangement, it appears that Los Angeles will save about $20MM over the next three years, while Texas will enjoy Hamilton’s services for only $6MM or so during that stretch. (For his part, Hamilton can now opt out of the last year of the deal, thus conveying some value to him, along with state income tax savings, in exchange for giving up some of his promised payout.)

So, let’s take a quick poll: how would you assess the trade?

It’s a quiet morning around the game, so let’s conduct a quick poll.

The Red Sox just agreed to rather an unusual contract with starter Rick Porcello, who had been set to hit the open market after this season. Still just 26 years old, the righty has been a steady presence for several years. But while he has shown some signs of breaking out, and did put up a career-best 3.43 ERA while topping 200 innings last season, Porcello has yet to establish himself as more than a solid, middle-of-the-rotation arm.

Nevertheless, Boston bet on Porcello’s ability to deliver value through his late twenties, buying four free agent years for a $82.5MM guarantee. That’s quite a significant average annual value for a pitcher with Porcello’s track record, but is offset by the fact that the team bought his age-27 through age-30 campaigns.

That trade-off is not often seen, as most pitchers look to score the lengthiest contracts they can, and Porcello almost certainly could have found more years. But it also makes sense: the deal’s structure means that the Red Sox will be relieved of obligations into Porcello’s decline phase, while he in turn will have a chance to hit the market at a reasonably young age.

Somewhat notably, James Shields signed with the Padres for four years and $75MM earlier in the offseason. That’s not insignificantly lower than Porcello’s guarantee, but is still in the same ballpark. Shields, of course, has been one of the game’s best and most durable arms for some time. But he also signed that deal to run through his age-36 season.

Had the Red Sox preferred, perhaps they could have signed Shields to approximately the same deal they gave Porcello, which would have had the added benefit of inserting the former into their rotation this year. Obviously, Boston did not believe that to be a wise investment, in part due to their assessment of Shields’ fit at Fenway and his ability to produce as he ages.

So, will the club regret betting on an arguably less-talented, inarguably much younger arm? Was the Porcello extension a wise investment of the club’s resources?

Punctuated by yet another major trade involving the Padres and the Braves, this offseason has been a memorable one. But our future recollections of the moves made will be colored by the months and years to come, as the bottom-line results of the winter’s transactions come to pass.

So, before we’ve all had a chance to benefit from information that was not available to the front offices that were actually making the decisions, let’s see how MLBTR’s readers view things. We are not looking for the team that put itself in the best position to win in 2015, or that made the biggest or most impactful moves. Instead, the question is which club most improved its overall short and long-term outlook by the things it did and didn’t do.

(For what it’s worth, MLBTR’s Steve Adams and I picked our favorites in the most recent MLBTR podcast, though I won’t name names here for fear of skewing the vote.)

The poll question (response order randomized): what team, in your view, had the best offseason?