MLBTR Polls

I’ll go ahead and assume that everyone has largely caught up on yesterday’s big news, which involved a blockbuster deal to send relief ace Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees to the Cubs. It’s all the more notable since New York isn’t entirely out of the post-season picture, and because the move signals Chicago’s intentions to push the pedal to the floor in pursuit of an elusive World Series title.

Ultimately, Yankees GM Brian Cashman says that making the move was “an easy decision” — despite the fact that it unquestionably hurts the team’s immediate chances. The reason? Parting with a short-term asset, even one as good as Chapman, was a no-brainer for the veteran executive when it meant adding a blue-chip infield prospect in Gleyber Torres, a useful MLB hurler in righty Adam Warren, and two more assets with real potential in the form of minor league outfielders Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford.

The veteran exec also suggests that New York can still try to qualify for the playoffs. While that’s true, it doesn’t change the fact that the chances of reaching and succeeding in the post-season are now clearly diminished. There’s no real question that Cashman (and, more importantly, ownership) weren’t convinced that this team was a full-throated contender, and that must have weighed heavily in the balance.

But did the Yankees’ brass perform an accurate assessment? Should the club have traded Chapman, and was the return sufficient? Tell us what you think:

It’s not often we see significant players swapped in June — read this if you don’t believe me — but the White Sox made an early strike on Saturday to acquire James Shields from the Padres. Chicago gave up controllable righty Erik Johnson and young infielder Fernando Tatis Jr., with San Diego keeping about $31MM of the $58MM owed to Shields.

From Chicago’s perspective, Shields represents a dependable — if diminished — rotation piece who can help keep the team in contention this year. He’ll also likely be around for the next two seasons to come, though Shields has the right to opt out at year end. While there’s little reason to believe that he’s still a top-of-the-line starter, Shields is incredibly durable, still reasonably effective, and quite fairly priced with the discount included in this swap. He certainly deepens a rotation that has some questions at the back end.

If the White Sox felt that Johnson was a viable option to play that sort of role, they surely wouldn’t have parted with him. The 26-year-old has failed to stick in four stints at the major league level, so he’s had his chances. On the other hand, he’s been much more effective at Triple-A — even if he hasn’t maintained a promising strikeout rate bump from a year ago — and none of those four stints included more than six appearances. With just 89 days of service coming into the year, the Cal-Berkeley product could be a long-term asset for the Padres; on the other hand, he’ll also soon be out of options. As Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs explains, Johnson has a “mediocre” arsenal but still carries a bit of upside. Tatis, meanwhile, is a quality prospect in Longenhagen’s evaluation, though there are some limits to his ceiling and he remains a long ways from the majors.

So, MLBTR readers, did it make sense for the Sox to give up that package and take on that much salary? Were the Pads wise to act quickly to save some cash and get something back for Shields? Vote here (link for mobile app users):

Matt Harvey showed improved velocity early in his outing last night, but his fastball faded and he was again hammered as batters got second and third looks. The Mets now face a tough call on their former ace.

Many columnists are calling for Harvey to be removed from the rotation, at least temporarily. (See, for example, here and here.) With Logan Verrett on hand, the club certainly has a viable fill-in.

Indeed, the Mets appear to be considering some kind of move, even if they aren’t ready to reach a decision. “Right now we’ve got to think what’s not just best for Matt, but what’s best for us moving forward at the moment,” said skipper Terry Collins (via ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin). “There’s a lot of things to consider.”

As Collins hints, the devil is often in the details. In this case, the particular move to be made isn’t clear. Harvey has maintained that he is healthy, and no apparent injury issues have been reported. But to send him to the minors otherwise would require passing him through optional assignment waivers. They are revocable, and usually are easy to secure, but teams also don’t generally seek to send down assets like Harvey. Keeping him at the major league level while he’s figuring things out, though, would mean either using him out of the bullpen or wasting a valuable roster spot.

*Note: since this post was published, Collins has stated that Harvey will make his next starter, as Mike Puma of the New York Post was among those to tweet.

It’s always interesting to take the temperature of MLBTR readers on matters like this one. If you were sitting in Sandy Alderson’s GM seat, how would you handle Harvey? (Link for mobile users.)

It’s a quiet morning on the transactional front, so we’ll take a slightly tangential approach to start off the day. The beginning of the season always brings plenty of surprising, short-sample results, and this year is no different.

But this year’s crop of high-performing, debut position players is particularly interesting, as none were considered blue-chip prospects or came with much hype — at least, prior to strong results in camp this spring. While they’ll all unquestionably regress, they’ve also shown enough already to at least begin modifying their clubs’ thinking about how roster decisions will play out the rest of the way.

Each of these four players ranks within the top forty position players in baseball by measure of fWAR; none had suited up for big league action prior to 2016:

• Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF, Cardinals: Sure, he had nice numbers last year at Triple-A. But Hazelbaker is closer to his 29th birthday than his 28th, and only made it onto the active roster due to injuries. Nevertheless, he’s off to a .526/.522/1.053 start and has also contributed two steals — that coming on the heels of a highly productive Spring Training. The St. Louis outfield mix remains fluid, but Hazelbaker could play himself into a significant role since he hits from the left side, unlike presumed regulars Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty — as well as last year’s surprising breakout veteran minor leaguer, Tommy Pham. And it doesn’t hurt that Hazelbaker is capable of playing center.
• Joey Rickard, OF, Orioles: Baltimore added uncertain-but-intriguing outfielders via free agency and the Rule 5 draft over the winter, and the Rule 5 Rickard has seen the lion’s share of time while $7MM man Hyun Soo Kim largely rides the pine. Hardly easing into things the way most such players do, Rickard has already racked up a .409/.400/.636 slash in 25 plate appearances. He’s done that with more pop and less walks than he’s shown in the minors, and there’s obviously some correction to come, but at a minimum Rickard is showing the kind of usefulness that could make him an easy keeper for the O’s.
• Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Stepping in for Jose Reyes while his domestic violence investigation is sorted out, Story has inspired a steady barrage of puns by swatting seven home runs in his first six major league games. Of course, he’s also swinging and missing quite a bit and has only managed two other hits (both singles) and one walk in his 28 plate appearances thus far. Looking forward, the job is probably Story’s to lose at this point, but he’ll need to improve his plate discipline as his 53.8% HR/FB rate (!) comes back down to earth.
• Tyler White, 1B, Astros: While Story’s tale is easier to tell, White’s hot start is arguably more impressive, as he’s not showing much vulnerability to the strikeout and is hitting everything in sight. White is slashing .545/.577/.1.091, which is obviously unsustainable, but his results generally reflect the intriguing blend of plate discipline, contact, and pop that he’s shown in the minors. He might eventually be pushed for playing time by the remaining options in the Houston system, but White has bought himself some rope to work with in his first seven games.

To make things interesting, chime in below with your prediction as to which of these players is most likely to reward those fans who are buying into their early-year excitement. Considering playing time opportunities, prior track record, performance to date, age, and other factors, which is the best bet to be a productive big leaguer for years to come?

(Poll link for mobile app users. Author’s notes: Do we really think anyone will keep up this rate of play? No! Is it too soon to tell who can nevertheless be productive in the long haul? Yes! That’s why we’re doing the poll now, when it’s interesting to see what people think and to discuss it, before a lengthier sample lets the stats largely tell the story by themselves. )

After a long winter of hot stove transactions, Opening Day is just around the corner.  For every trade, signing, release, waiver claim and DFA, fans ultimately have just one question about every move: how did this help my team improve?  What may be a minor transaction or an under-the-radar signing over the winter could pay huge dividends come October.

The beauty of baseball is that you just never know when “next year” will come.  The Rangers, Astros and Cubs had three of the eight worst records in 2014 yet made the postseason in 2015.  The Mets and Blue Jays each returned to the playoffs after years of frustration.  And, most of all, the Royals firmly erased any doubt that their 2014 AL pennant was a fluke when they broke through for the franchise’s second-ever World Series championship.

The 2016 season will undoubtedly have a lot of surprises, and come October, will the last two teams standing be preseason favorites, or could another unexpected club (or two) rise up to win a pennant?  With this in mind, give us your take on which two teams will square off in the World Series.  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here for the American League champion and here for the National League champion.)

With today’s signing of David Freese, the Pirates became the latest club to strike a fairly low-dollar, one-year pact with an established veteran. Among the other position players who weren’t bound by a qualifying offer and ended up signing during camp were Juan Uribe (Indians), Austin Jackson (White Sox), and Pedro Alvarez (Orioles).

Interestingly, it was quite possible to imagine several of those names ending up with the other clubs that made late-breaking deals. Now that the chips have fallen, let’s take a closer look at the fits:

David Freese, Pirates, $3MM: Freese fills an immediate need with Jung Ho Kang expected to miss time early, and will apparently take up the right-handed side of a platoon at first base alongside fellow offseason addition John Jaso. While Michael Morse and Sean Rodriguez also could have fit there, they could spend time in the outfield. And it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh could ultimately mix things around by moving Jordy Mercer out of full-time duties at short, as Kang did play in 60 games there last year.

Juan Uribe, Indians, $4MM: Cleveland reportedly preferred Uribe to Freese, and paid a bit more to add the older option. He does seem to carry a bit more upside, with better recent results at the plate and in the field, though he’s also been held to active part-time duty in recent years. There’s no question that the organization filled a need with the move, but it’ll be interesting to see whether Uribe or Freese turns out to be the better performer in 2016.

Austin Jackson, White Sox, $5MM: Jackson is yet another player that could have ended up in Cleveland, but instead he’ll suit up for the division-rival White Sox. Again, the fit is evident: Chicago added a quality defender up the middle, enabling Adam Eaton to play in the corner while decreasing the need to rely on Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia. It would be a surprise at this point if Jackson were to return to the power/speed combination he showed earlier in his career, but he’s only 29 and has a reasonable floor given his solid glovework.

Pedro Alvarez, Orioles, $5.75MM: Baltimore probably didn’t have quite as much to offer Jackson as did Chicago, since center field remains the realm of Adam Jones, but it’s arguable that he’d have represented a better fit. As it is, though, the O’s have added another impressive power bat to their lineup; it’s easy to forget that, in the midst of defensive struggles, Alvarez hit 27 home runs and slugged .469 last season. The move also means that Mark Trumbo will spend significant time in the corner outfield, though, which carries quite a bit of risk.

So, which of these moves looks best to you?