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Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Jose Bautista A Qualifying Offer?

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Like the other seven major league teams currently in the postseason, the Blue Jays are trying to fight their way to a World Series title. But regardless of whether Toronto’s season ends with a championship, the club will have decisions to make on two franchise icons in the coming weeks. As soon-to-be free agents, designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and right fielder/DH Jose Bautista could depart Canada after the season. If the Blue Jays aren’t able to strike new deals with either, the team could receive a first-round pick as compensation for each if it tenders them one-year, $16.7MM qualifying offers (assuming the QO system remains in place).

Encarnacion is a shoo-in to land an offer, but Bautista’s case looks somewhat less certain than it did coming into the season. At that point, Bautista was fresh off six straight excellent campaigns dating back to his stunning breakout in 2010. Between then and 2015, Bautista combined to slash a superb .268/.390/.555 in 3,604 plate appearances. Along the way, he accounted for 32.5 fWAR – the majors’ fifth-highest total among position players – walked almost as much as he struck out (15.9 percent to 16.0 percent), hit 28 more home runs (227) than his nearest competitor, Miguel Cabrera, and posted a .287 ISO. That elite-level performance reportedly had Bautista in search of a massive contract last winter, but a decline in output has likely hurt his earning power since.

Bautista was on the disabled list twice during the regular season, and in the 116 games he did play, he wasn’t the all-world offensive threat he had been during the previous six years. By no means was Bautista’s production at the plate subpar, however, as he still batted a more-than-respectable .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers and a .217 ISO in 517 PAs. He also continued controlling the strike zone, albeit not as well as he did in prior seasons, with 87 walks against 103 strikeouts. With his below-average defense and baserunning factored in, Bautista was worth just 1.5 fWAR this year – his lowest total since 2008, when he was toiling in anonymity.

Bautista’s down season would be less alarming if he weren’t about to turn 36, which could scare off the Blue Jays or other teams when the time comes to hand him a lucrative multiyear contract. Not only that, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggested Sunday that Toronto might not issue Bautista a qualifying offer because of fear that he could accept it. In response, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk argued that, given Bautista’s track record, the Jays would welcome him back for 2017 at a $16.7MM price tag. He also pointed out that Bautista is in the midst of another quality playoff showing, having already smashed three homers this postseason for a club that could advance to its second straight ALCS tonight.

I’m in the same camp as Mark regarding Bautista, but what do you think?

Poll: Should MLB Change September Roster Expansion Rules?

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Earlier this week, former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs penned a guest piece for MLBTR in which he offered a former player’s take on the September expansion of MLB active rosters from 25 to 40. Spilborghs’ opinion was a nuanced one, but he noted that most coaches and players intensely dislike roster expansion, noting that it slows the pace of games and prevents MLB role players from getting playing time.

Roster expansion rules have come in for criticism with beat writers recently as well, due in part to the long game times and frequent pitching changes that now seem so characteristic of late-season baseball. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, for example, described a recent Phillies/Mets series as “a perverted type of baseball,” noting that one game took nearly four hours and featured 38 players, including two relievers who had pitched not at all, or close to not at all, in the previous two weeks. Those sorts of figures are, unfortunately, quite common in September, as contenders and non-contenders alike attempt to outmaneuver one another with seemingly limitless situational matchups.

“Let’s put it this way: That’s the thing about September,” said Phillies manager Pete Mackanin, via Gelb. “They have a lefty for every righty I bring in and vice versa. That’s what makes it so difficult. There’s no moves you can make that can’t be countered. So, what are you going to do?”

Gelb notes that September roster expansion could be part of this winter’s round of CBA negotiations. One possible solution would be a rule that allows teams to expand their active rosters in September, as they do now, but to declare a 25-man roster for each game. Such a rule might somewhat limit substitutions and pitching changes, thereby reducing game times, although it would do little to address Spilborghs’ concern about veteran role players losing out on playing time.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, for his part, agrees that roster expansion rules should be reformed. “I’m not looking to take away service time or anything like that, but I do think it would make sense to get to a situation where we played out September games closer to the rules that we play with the rest of the year,” he says. “I don’t think 18 pitchers in a game is a good thing.”

Of course, the benefits of expanded rosters are almost as easy to see as the drawbacks. Young players, particularly those on non-contending teams, can get their first tastes of big-league action, while managers and executives are more easily able to watch their young players against top competition. Also, the sheer number of bodies available helps teams get to the end of a lengthy 162-game season, by which point many established players are struggling with nagging injuries.

So what should MLB do about roster expansion? We’ll begin with a simple poll question about whether the rules should change. If you have a suggestion for how the rules should change, share it in the comments.

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Andrew McCutchen?

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MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth just broke down the Pirates’ upcoming offseason, labeling as the team’s “key topic” the question whether to seriously entertain trade talks on long-time star center fielder Andrew McCutchen. It’s a tough call for a team that disappointed in 2016 but still hopes to contend next year. While an answer is obviously dependent in no small part upon the level of demand on the market, it seems worth posing now to the MLBTR readership.

As Charlie explained, McCutchen’s middling season did end well, with a .284/.381/.471 batting line from the start of August. And while he’s no longer particularly youthful, he’ll only be entering his age-30 season with a track record as one of the game’s most productive all-around players.

Even if teams buy into the idea that Cutch’s true talent level at the plate remains rather high, despite his rough results for most of the year, the question remains what they’ll think of his glovework in center. Metrics have never loved him up the middle, but took a particularly dim view of his work in 2016. McCutchen graded out at -22.5 runs per UZR and racked up -28 Defensive Runs Saved. Both were league-low marks among qualifying players.

Beyond the on-field matters, McCutchen is a unique player. He has been the face of the franchise as it has emerged from a long period of misery, and remains affordable despite his long run of excellence. His extension calls for a $14MM salary next year and includes a $14.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2018. And it’s obviously a relative low point at which to deal.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh has several needs and already signaled some payroll concerns in giving up prospects to move the remaining contract of Francisco Liriano at the deadline. With other holes to plug, as Charlie documents in the above-linked piece, there’s an argument to be made that now’s the time to re-allocate the salary while getting some assets back. Plus, the club has center field options on hand in Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco along with an outfield replacement available in highly-rated youngster Austin Meadows — though a .214/.297/.460 batting line over his first 147 Triple-A plate appearances suggests there’s some polishing left.

There’s a lot to ponder here, and the Bucs have some time to think about it while getting a read on the market. But as things stand, what do you think Pittsburgh ought to do?

Poll: Should The Mets Pick Up Jay Bruce’s Option?

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It sounds as if the Mets are set to pay Jay Bruce $13MM club option rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him back onto the open market. Certainly, that has long been the expectation since the team acquired him by shipping youngsters Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell to the Reds at the trade deadline, with some suggesting that the addition was partially seen internally as a hedge against the departure of Yoenis Cespedes this winter.

Still, there are reasons to think that New York could have second thoughts on paying that sum for Bruce’s age-30 campaign. Even after a hot streak to end the year, Bruce wrapped up his 50 games in New York with a meager .219/.294/.391 batting line and eight home runs.

Though he hasn’t been consistent from year-to-year over his career, and some regression might have been expected, that’s a far sight shy of the .265/.316/.559 slash and 25 long balls that Bruce produced in 402 plate appearances this year in Cincinnati. As August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs explained recently, there are some worrying signs embedded in the late-year struggles, connected to Bruce’s mediocre and injury-limited prior two campaigns.

On the other hand, the Mets already paid the acquisition cost and penciled Bruce’s 2017 salary onto the books for a reason. Their scouts obviously liked what they saw in a player who doesn’t fit New York’s typical, high-OBP focus. (And that has worked out just fine so far with Cespedes.) Between 2010-13, Bruce racked up 121 home runs with a 121 OPS+ in more than 2,500 Major League plate appearances, so the talent is there.

And then there’s the question of defense, which was the biggest knock on Bruce’s value. Defensive metrics hated his glove of late in Cinci, even though some suggested that it wasn’t nearly as bad as the numbers suggested. Though it’s quite a small sample, Bruce’s 351 2/3 innings with the Mets were much more promising. He recorded 2 Defensive Runs Saved and 3.6 runs by measure of UZR during that span — quite strong marks.

Finally, there’s the matter of how well Bruce fits onto the Mets’ 2017 roster (depth chart). New York, of course, already has Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto as left-handed corner bats in the outfield, and the team hopes to retain Cespedes, even if that may be a long shot. While Granderson is still capable of playing center field, he’s best-suited for an outfield corner. Also in the mix will be Juan Lagares, who should be fully recovered from the thumb injury that sidelined him for most of the 2016 season’s second half.

Suffice it to say, there are numerous factors that need to be considered when answering what, on the surface, appears to be a fairly simple question. Let’s open this one up for discussion (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The entire season revolves around this one question.  Now that the 2016 postseason field is set, all that remains is seeing which of the 10 remaining clubs will be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Toronto hosts Baltimore in the AL Wild Card game on Tuesday, with the winner going on to face Texas.  Cleveland holds home field advantage over Boston in the other ALDS matchup.  Over in the NL, New York hosts San Francisco in the Wild Card game on Wednesday, and a date with league-leading Chicago awaits the victor.  Washington will host Los Angeles in Game 1 of their NLDS series on Friday.

Will the Cubs break their curse and capture their first World Series since 1908?  Or, perhaps the second-longest Series drought in baseball could instead end if the Indians continue Cleveland’s sudden run of sports success.  Could the Rangers (56 years in existence) or Nationals (48 years) finally win the first championship in the history of their franchises?  Can the Mets continue to thrive amidst a swath of injuries and make it back to the Fall Classic for the second straight year?  Do the Blue Jays have more bat-flipping postseason heroics in store for 2016?  No AL team has won more games over the last five years than the Orioles, but can they finally get that elusive postseason breakthrough?  Could the Dodgers or Red Sox celebrate their respective franchise icons (Vin Scully and David Ortiz) by sending them into retirement on the high note of another championship?  Or, are all these questions moot since it’s an #EvenYear and thus the Giants are due for another title?

MLBTR readers, who do you think will win it all?  (link for app users)

Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Michael Saunders A Qualifying Offer?

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Back on August 16, I posted a forecast of which free agents could receive qualifying offers from their teams this offseason.  Michael Saunders was listed as one of my “easy calls” to receive the one-year, $16.7MM contract, with one important caveat.  Saunders, at that point, had been in a month-long slump, so I noted that the Blue Jays could re-consider issuing Saunders a QO if his slump continued, given his lack of track record as an upper-tier hitter.

Well, fast-forward six weeks and Saunders’ bat has yet to wake up.  In 27 games between August 16 and September 23, Saunders is hitting just .207/.286/.427 with four homers over 92 plate appearances.  In the second half altogether, Saunders has contributed a .179/.284/.375 slash line over 195 PA, though eight of his 24 homers on the season have come since the All-Star break.

So while Saunders has retained some of his pop (he has a respectable .196 isolated slugging mark in the second half) since the Midsummer Classic, the rest of his batting numbers have fallen off the table.  This has made Saunders a sub-replacement level player for the Jays, since if Saunders isn’t hitting, he can’t contribute much on the basepaths or as a corner outfielder.  An above-average baserunner early in his career according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric, Saunders has unsurprisingly been subpar in that category since tearing his meniscus during a freak Spring Training accident in 2015 and subsequently missing much of that season due to knee problems.  It’s fair to guess that the knee injury has also contributed to Saunders’ poor defense, as his minus-9 Defensive Runs Scored and -12.1 UZR/150 this season in the outfield is well below his pre-meniscus tear career standard as a decent left fielder and a very good right fielder.

As it pertains to Saunders’ free agent stock, teams will certainly think hard about offering a big multi-year deal to a player who may already be turning into a bat-only type as he enters his age-30 season, especially when his bat may not be that potent.  If Saunders and his representatives at Meister Sports Management feel that these question marks and the QO-attached draft pick compensation hanging over his free agency could limit his market, he could accept the Jays’ qualifying offer and aim for 2017 as that true breakout year where he is both healthy and consistently productive.

If the Blue Jays think there’s a chance Saunders accepts a QO, would they be comfortable offering it?  The Jays may be wary committing $16.7MM to a player with Saunders’ limitations.  There’s also the fact that Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are also free agents this winter, and both will certainly be issued qualifying offers.  Encarnacion will definitely reject his, while there’s a chance Bautista could accept given his disappointing and injury-plagued season.  If both signed elsewhere, the Jays would probably welcome Saunders accepting a QO just so they could retain one important bat for the lineup.  Encarnacion’s departure would also free up the designated hitter spot for Saunders and other veterans in the Blue Jays lineup.  If fatigue has been a factor in Saunders’ second-half slide, regular DH at-bats would help keep him fresher and perhaps more productive over all 162 games.

This all being said, let’s not forget just how tremendous Saunders was in the first half of 2016.  Only 13 players in baseball topped Saunders’ first-half wRC+ of 146, and the outfielder hit an impressive .298/.372/.551 with 16 homers over 344 PA.  Saunders had long been rumored to have middle-of-the-order bat potential, and it was all clicking for him in the first 3.5 months of the season.

Given that teams are increasingly preferring to be flexible with their DH spot rather than have one designated hitter, a team with holes at both DH and corner outfield would certainly consider Saunders to rotate between both positions.  As mentioned earlier, 2017 will be Saunders’ age-30 season, which gives him an age advantage over some of the other notable corner outfield/DH types on the market this offseason.  Teams may be more willing to surrender a draft pick for a player who could still be coming into his prime, so it’s quite possible that Saunders will find a nice contract elsewhere and the Jays can recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer.

Far from being an “easy call” anymore, Saunders now stands as one of the most intriguing QO cases of any free agent this winter, particularly given how his situation could influence how the Blue Jays approach re-signing Encarnacion and/or Bautista.  How do MLBTR readers feel?  (link for app users):

Poll: Should The Mets Issue Neil Walker A Qualifying Offer?

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Certainly, the Mets have more pressing matters at the moment than deciding whether to issue a $16.7MM qualifying offer to second baseman Neil Walker. Keeping pace in the Wild Card race takes priority over keeping Walker in town for 2017.

That being said, the team doesn’t have much time until it’ll make a tough call on Walker, who’ll qualify for free agency just after turning 31. The QO was all but a given before Walker’s recent back surgery — he provided New York with 458 plate appearances of .282/.347/.476 production and 23 home runs before going down — but that procedure throws some uncertainty into the matter.

Let’s look at the scary side first. Walker’s back surgery addressed a herniated disk that was causing numbness in his toes and carried a risk of worsening problems. Any back issues are obviously concerning for a big league player of any kind, especially when teams haven’t had a chance to see how the player looks upon his return.

On the other hand, Walker says he’s already progressing nicely and is pain-free for the first time in quite a while. It’ll be three months until he can participate in baseball activities, but that’s plenty of time to allow him to prepare for a full Spring Training. Indeed, he seemingly suggests that it should be viewed as a net positive, as he’ll no longer be saddled by the pain. Plus, it’s hard to ignore Walker’s straight seasons of above-average offensive production from an up-the-middle position — one that he fielded at an average (per DRS) to above-average (per UZR) level in 2016 despite posting below-average metrics in prior years.

Certainly, the Mets are privy to much more detailed information about Walker’s health than we are. But the question seems to boil down to one of financial risk versus the evident upside, which could come in one of two ways. If Walker declines the QO, then the Mets would stand to recoup draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. And if he accepts, but returns to health, he could well represent an appealing investment — even at that high rate — on just a single season commitment. That’s all the more true given that New York would arguably we well-served to retain an additional veteran infielder given the ongoing back and neck-related questions surrounding David Wright and the still-undetermined tender status of first baseman Lucas Duda (who just returned in part-time duty from his own back troubles).

While Sandy Alderson and co. bat things around, let’s see where the MLBTR readership stands (link for app users):

Poll: Should The Marlins Shop Jose Fernandez This Offseason?

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This time of year is as quiet as it gets in terms of actual baseball transactions, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t things happening beneath the surface. While postseason play remains the focus for contenders, all teams need to have at least one eye on an offseason that isn’t far away. Internal assessment and planning are obviously an ongoing task, and clubs are constantly engaged one another to see what opportunities may arise.

All that’s a way of setting up this morning’s poll question: as the Marlins enter the final two weeks of play with a .500 record that likely won’t deliver a postseason berth, should they be preparing to shop ace righty Jose Fernandez this winter? Or should they be thinking of ways to ensure that he stays in Miami for the long run?

Fernandez, who just turned 24, is an unquestioned ace. He has fully re-established himself since returning from Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.97 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 239 innings since making it back to the bigs last year.

Youth is certainly on Fernandez’s side, and he’s cheaper than he ought to be since the timing of the TJ surgery held down his first-year arbitration earnings ($2.8MM). He’ll command a huge raise on that number, of course, but still won’t be compensated at anything approaching his on-field value. The two remaining years of arb control are immensely valuable. (Remember, the Fish could’ve had another if they hadn’t placed Fernandez on the Opening Day roster back in 2013.)

That makes Fernandez a highly appealing trade candidate entering a winter in which the free agent class is historically sparse. Miami could target high-end young talent to improve a little-regarded farm system, angle for controllable major league pieces, or combine either or both of those targets with a request for some useful, reasonably-priced MLB assets at positions of need.

Of course, the same factors of affordability and performance also make Fernandez a potential extension candidate for the Marlins, who previously managed to lock up Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Dee Gordon. Fernandez’s late-twenties seasons won’t come cheap, but the Stephen Strasburg extension shows that it’s possible to keep a Scott Boras-repped ace so long as the player is motivated.

The question for the Marlins, ultimately, is multi-faceted. Can they win with their current roster, which has had success at times but lacks for starting pitching depth and has needs on the left side of the infield? Would they be better off — in the long-term, but perhaps also even in the short-term — to swap Fernandez out for a huge return of talent? If they want to keep him, can they afford what it might take to keep the Cuban-born star in Miami?

Figuring all that out will require an assessment not only of Fernandez, but also of the broader market situation. Starting pitching figures to be a focal point in trade talks this winter, with teams such as the White Sox (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana), Rays (Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb), and Braves (Julio Teheran) potentially weighing whether to cash in on a pitching-starved market. Fernandez is younger and arguably better (though that’s plenty debatable) than any of those pitchers, and would certainly draw immense interest, meaning Miami at least has to be wondering about the question that you are about to answer (link for mobile app users):

Poll: The Braves’ Outfield

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The Braves will enter the 2016-17 offseason with a pair of veteran outfielders — Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp — under contract through 2018 and 2019, respectively, as well as a pair of fleet-footed defensive stars — Ender Inciarte and Mallex Smith — that the team has hoped can become long-term pieces. And, in looking at the potential logjam, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that it’s “likely” that veteran Jeff Francoeur will be back in the fold with the Braves to once again fill a bench role.

With a quartet of outfielders that could factor into the starting mix, there figures to be plenty of chatter about the Braves trading an outfielder this offseason, so let’s take a look at the possibility of each…

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5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency

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I believe Rich Hill will land a three-year contract worth $45MM or more in free agency this winter.  A year ago, that would’ve seemed insane.  Today marks the one-year anniversary of Hill’s return to a Major League starting rotation after a five-year hiatus.  That September spot start for the Red Sox turned into four, which led to a one-year, $6MM free agent deal from the Athletics in November.  Hill’s success continued this season, albeit with significant time missed due to injuries.  The lefty’s season culminated with seven perfect innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins Saturday night, though it’s not over yet.  Here’s why I believe Hill will get $45MM or more this winter.

  1.  His performance has been otherworldly.  Over the last year, Hill has authored 124 innings of 1.74 ball – the best in baseball over that period.  Hill has ridden his knee-buckling curveball to strike out more than 30% of batters faced (10.6 K/9) during that time.  Even if you just look at pure, total value, Hill ranks 14th with 4.6 wins above replacement.  Hill’s last 124 innings were worth roughly the same as Johnny Cueto’s last 229 2/3 frames.  Hill has pitched 95 innings this year, and FanGraphs values his performance at $28MM.
  2. His age won’t stop him from getting three years.  Hill will turn 37 in March.  Three-year free agent deals are rare at that age, because teams are wary of injuries and decline.  However, I expect Hill to get three years for the same reason Carlos Beltran did in his last contract: it’s the cost of doing business.  If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well.  Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.
  3.  His injury history won’t stop him from getting three years.  Rich Hill has an extensive injury history dating back to 2008.  He endured shoulder and elbow surgery in his career, and he’s missed 79 days this season due to a groin injury and blisters on his throwing hand.  I still think he can get a three-year deal, for the same “cost of doing business” reason stated above.  It’s why Scott Kazmir got three years and Brandon McCarthy got four (albeit both from the Dodgers).  It’s true that Hill brings issues of both age and injury history, but his performance has been far stronger than that of a Kazmir or McCarthy.  Plus, many teams throw rationality out the window in free agency.
  4. Rich Hill can be a game-changer for under $50MM.  Why did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pull Hill in the midst of a perfect game, with 89 pitches thrown?  It’s partially because they know what a huge weapon he can be for them in the postseason if they can keep him healthy.  Simply by virtue of having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in a short series, the Dodgers will be a fearsome playoff opponent.  So maybe you sign Hill to a three-year deal and can only count on 100 innings a year from him.  Those 100 innings could be ace-caliber, and have a large impact on a team’s chance at winning the World Series.  It’s akin to the way a reliever like Aroldis Chapman can have a high overall impact despite throwing only 60 regular season innings.  A lot of teams don’t mind “overpaying” for relievers in free agency, because a Chapman or an Andrew Miller can make such a huge difference at crunch time.  However, Chapman and Kenley Jansen will require contracts well beyond $45MM this winter.  $45MM just isn’t a lot of money in MLB these days, and the upside makes Hill worth the risk.
  5. The free agent market for starting pitching is terrible.  The 2016-17 free agent market for starting pitching is historically bad.  Have a look.  Would you rather throw $30-35MM at Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova, or $45-50MM at Rich Hill?  I don’t know whether the current draft pick compensation system will remain similar under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but if it does, Hill could come with the added bonus of not requiring compensation by virtue of his midseason trade.

The X factor in Hill’s future earnings is his own personal preference.  Certainly, he could take less money to pitch in a certain part of the country, as players sometimes do.  Let’s hear your thoughts in the poll below (direct link for mobile app users).

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