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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Alex Cobb Signing

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After watching a variety of quality free agents settle for shorter and less-lucrative contracts than expected — including established veteran starter Lance Lynn — it seemed that right-hander Alex Cobb would likewise need to take what he could get and plan to return to the open market in the near future in search of a heftier pact. Instead, he struck a surprising four-year, $57MM deal yesterday with the Orioles.

Of course, that contract wouldn’t have seemed out of line when the offseason got underway. MLBTR tabbed Cobb the 11th-best free agent available and predicted he’d secure a four-year contract with a $48MM guarantee — not far off from where he ultimately landed. But we also guessed four and $56MM for Lynn, who got just $12MM from the Twins despite signing a few weeks before Cobb and carrying a broadly similar overall profile in terms of age and track record. And when we reexamined the market before Lynn’s signing, we downgraded expectations for both hurlers.

Needless to say, this winter’s market has been something of a moving target. At the end of the day, though, Cobb will land a sizable but generally market-rate deal with an organization that came into the winter as perhaps the most pitching-needy would-be contender in baseball. If the deal is finalized, Cobb will join Andrew Cashner and the re-signed Chris Tillman as free-agent additions to a staff that already featured Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman.

There are still questions up and down that five-man crew, but the overall talent base on the pitching staff is quite a bit higher now than at the outset of the offseason. One can argue that the O’s ought not to have made a commitment of this magnitude entering the organization’s final season of control over Manny Machado and Adam Jones. On the other hand, it’s hard to condemn a club for spending to win, especially when so many others are focusing on the future. And while the Cobb contract hardly seems a bargain, it’s roughly in range of his market value and arguably delivers some upside given Cobb’s history as a top-of-the-rotation presence. He was, after all, one of the most effective starters in the AL East in 2013-14 and delivered 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching in 2017.

How would you grade the move from the team’s perspective? (Link for app users.)

Poll: Grading the Jose Altuve Extension

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Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros have agreed to a five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve that’ll keep him in Houston through his age-34 season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd mentioned yesterday, the deal will be by far the largest extension ever given to a second baseman, handily topping the $110MM given to Dustin Pedroia by the Red Sox in 2013.

It’s also just the sixth deal in MLB history that comes with an average annual value greater than $30MM. A win above replacement is widely believed to be worth around $8MM, so it seems likely that Altuve could still provide the 4-ish WAR per year necessary to provide the Astros with surplus value on this new deal. Indeed, the reigning AL MVP and three-time batting champ has been worth 14.3 fWAR across the past two seasons alone.

Of course, it’s not a given that Houston’s star second baseman can maintain that level of production through the age of 34. Although his strongest and most notable skill is his penchant for making good contact (with an astonishingly low swinging strike rate) and racking up hits, a large part of his value is tied up in his baserunning. Though last season Altuve stole 32 bases and managed a .339 BABIP on grounders, history says that his speed isn’t likely to stick around past age 30, at least not to that level.

Even as his speed starts to go, however, contact ability and plate discipline (Altuve carries an incredible 10.7% career strikeout rate) are skills that typically tend to age well. And there’s something to be said for the Astros keeping the face of their franchise around through 2024.

It’s not unreasonable to think that Altuve could have earned a larger guarantee if he’d waited to hit the free agent market following the 2019 season. But as with his first extension with the Astros, he’ll essentially sacrifice earnings upside for added financial security… and a whole lot of it, too. The contract ranks as the 31st-largest guarantee in MLB history. He’s now guaranteed life-changing money, with a chance to earn even more when he hits the free agent market again six and a half years from now.

At this point, we want to know your opinion. What do you think of the second Altuve deal from the Astros’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)

What about from Altuve’s perspective? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: $6.5MM Contracts

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As Opening Day draws closer, we’re beginning to see the unfortunate penalties for players who overestimated their markets at the offseason’s outset. A number of our top-50-ranked free agents have fallen well short of the expectations we had for them, including three players ranked in our top five (Masahiro Tanaka excluded) who’ve been guaranteed at least $35MM less than we predicted.

That group includes Mike Moustakas, who so far seems to be the abnormal offseason’s biggest victim. We thought “Moose” would receive a guarantee in the $85MM range, but he ended up settling for a contract with the Royals that’ll pay him just $6.5MM, including a buyout of a mutual option for 2019. Logan Morrison and Jonathan Lucroy have also signed deals that guarantee them that exact same amount, despite the fact that they were widely expected to earn far more money. It should be noted that Moustakas has $2.2MM in available incentives in 2018 based on plate appearances, while Morrison can earn an extra $1.5 MM in similar fashion and can increase the base value of his 2019 option (or even cause it to vest) based on his 2018 plate appearances. However, these are excruciatingly small consolation prizes compared to the money they hoped to earn at the start of the winter.

The biggest subject of the offseason of course, has been why it’s been so unusual. But one of the more obvious answers is that the league-wide home run surge has likely resulted in a league-wide devaluation of power. That would certainly explain cooler-than-expected demand for players like Moustakas and Morrison, both of whom slugged 38 homers last season but had notable flaws elsewhere in their game. That Lucroy’s power mysteriously evaporated entirely might have contributed to the evaporation of the market for his services.

Regardless, these players are all likely to provide excess value on their respective contracts. bWAR and fWAR generally agree on their values in relation to replacement level last season; Moustakas was worth somewhere around 2 WAR, Morrison close to 3.5 WAR, and Lucroy about 1 WAR. And even though Lucroy rated the least valuable of the three, it’s worth noting that he plays a premium position and been an immensely valuable player in the past (both offensively and defensively). Even a modest bounceback from the outgoing Rockies catcher could result in a solid season for the A’s.

Below are the Steamer and ZiPS projections for these players, taken from Fangraphs.com. As with any projections, they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Lucroy:
Steamer: .273/.347/.427, 11.8 Defense Rating, 2.9 fWAR
ZiPS: .298/.365/.449, 3.6 Defense Rating, 1.7 fWAR

Moustakas:
Steamer: .268/.328/.494, 2.1 Defense Rating, 2.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .267/.318/.485, 1.5 Defense Rating, 1.5 fWAR

Morrison:
Steamer: .249/.340/.461, -11.6 Defense Rating, 0.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .255/.345/.477, -10.8 Defense Rating, 1.9 fWAR

Who do you think will provide the most value on his $6.5MM contract? Here’s a poll link for app users.

Poll: Who Will Sign Carlos Gonzalez?

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A majority of the free agent dust has settled by now, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently noted, there’s a large handful of top-50-ranked free agents who are still searching for a contract. The best outfielder on that list is Carlos Gonzalez, who appears mired amidst some unfortunate circumstances.

As Adams noted, the left-handed-hitting Gonzalez put up the worst season of his career in 2017. Under any circumstances, it would pretty bad timing for a player to do this in his walk year. However, Gonzalez’ walk year just happened to coincide with an abnormal offseason that’s moved at a historically slow pace. Further worsening his situation is the fact that power has been abundant in MLB for the past couple of seasons, and therefore bat-first corner outfielders might not hold as much value in the eyes of front offices around the league.

Not only that, but front offices seem wary of promising long-term contracts to average players on the wrong side of 30. Although CarGo has put up some impressive offensive seasons, hehasn’t played at an especially above-average level since 2013, and he comes with an injury history as well.

At this stage in his career, Gonzalez should probably be shielded against left-handed pitchers. He managed just a 29 wRC+ against them across 137 plate appearances during the 2017 campaign. If front offices see him strictly as a platoon player, that could put an even lower cap on his price tag.

Now we’re into March, and Gonzalez seems to be in a bad spot. Logan Morrison, another bat-first left-handed hitter, received just a $6.5MM guarantee from the Twins. Although the two have very different MLB track records on the whole, the Morrison contract doesn’t exactly shine optimism on Gonzalez’ market.

The list of suitors for Gonzalez at this point is short. The Orioles, Rockies, White Sox, Royals, Astros and Blue Jays are among the teams who shown interest in the outfielder at some point during the offseason. While those teams are all reasonable fits in theory, the market for him seems tepid at this time. With opening day fast approaching, the one-year, $12MM contract we predicted at the beginning of the offseason is beginning to look out of reach, barring some sort of injury that creates a need for his services.

What do you think? Where will Gonzalez end up? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: Most Pressing Need For Free-Agent Starter?

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While we’ve seen some general movement on the free-agent market, the top of the starting pitching class is still chock full of possibilities. Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb all figured to command significant contracts entering the winter. These players and their reps have to this point seemingly felt justified in continuing to maintain fairly high asking prices.

Whether or not some or all of these three veteran hurlers can land lengthy, high-AAV contracts will depend upon how the current multi-actor standoff resolves. Who blinks first: a player that decides it’s just time to get into camp or a team that feels it has to get a starter? Will a sudden injury or other development boost demand?

Even without any changes in the market situation, the current staring contest seems to offer plenty of different outcomes. Organizations will obviously feel hopeful of scoring a bargain after seeing some cut-rate prices on hitters. But these pitchers are surely still hoping for some northward bidding movement given the number of teams that still have an evident need.

As they say, it only takes one offer to lead to a big contract. So, I thought it’d be interesting to see whether the MLBTR readership has a favorite to drive the price among the teams still hunting for starters. Put another way: which of these organizations most needs to pony up some cash and land one of these free-agent starters?

(Links to Roster Resource depth charts.)

  • Angels — If things work out, the Halos will have six talented hurlers all working out of the rotation. Even if that involves some tag-team disabled list action reminiscent of the cross-town Dodgers, it’s not hard to imagine the Angels getting a lot of good innings from their many risky but talented pitchers. That said, finishing off a fascinating offseason by adding a quality starter would not only enhance the outlook of the rotation but would allow the club to drop an arm into a bullpen that could also probably stand to be improved.
  • Brewers — Milwaukee is trying to be targeted in adding around its young core and is justified in exercising some caution. But with Jimmy Nelson still a question mark, the back of the rotation is currently subject to an open competition. While the team has several pitchers with some degree of merit, it’s not a group you’d peg to be capable of chasing down the Cubs and Cards.
  • Cardinals — Speaking of the Cards … many have suggested all winter long that St. Louis needs to add more, particularly in the rotation. There’s still plenty of talent on the staff, but most of the anticipated members come with fairly notable levels of risk (injury, age, experience, etc.).
  • Mariners — While an early scare to Felix Hernandez may not be cause for concern, his recent track record and the lack of a clear number five starter arguably are. Seattle has long been viewed as a fringe possibility for a rotation upgrade, but some would say it ought to be in the thick of things.
  • Nationals — Sure, the Nats could just utilize their internal possibilities (A.J. Cole, Erick Fedde, Edwin Jackson, Tom Milone) for a fifth starter and rotation depth, trusting that the trade deadline will offer a chance to shore up as needed. But this is a team that can’t afford any missteps as it tries to finally reach and advance into the postseason.
  • Orioles — The O’s have filled two of their rotation openings and currently plan to compete the third. That’s a defensible strategy, perhaps, but the unit doesn’t inspire much confidence that Baltimore will be able to challenge the highly talented teams that paced the division last year. Another move could go a long way.
  • Phillies — It’s hard to call it a need for the still-rebuilding Phils to land a significant starter. Then again, given the amount the front office has invested in short-term assets of late, and the amount spent on Carlos Santana and others this winter, perhaps there’s a case to be made that the organization really should be pushing the market to get a significant hurler.
  • Rangers — Indications are that a big contract won’t be handed out and that the team will roll with some kind of six-man rotation unit. But it’s easy to see how a quality starter would transform the pitching staff by installing more good innings in the rotation and bumping other quality arms into the pen.
  • Twins — Perhaps taking advantage of the collapse of the market for slugger Logan Morrison means the Twins won’t have as much cash to work with. On the other hand, you could argue that the addition of LoMo and others only creates an opportunity for a more significant investment to really pay off.
  • Yankees — Hoping that Jordan Montgomery continues to progress is a perfectly reasonable strategy for filling out the rotation. And there are at least a few depth possibilities still floating around the organization, with a vast array of possibilities at the deadline. But expectations are extremely high in the Bronx and every win will count. Having added an affordable infield option, perhaps the Yanks can and should spend a bit more to finish off their staff.

So, which team really needs to add that big arm? (Link for app users.)

Poll: Still-Unemployed Top Ten Free Agents

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Spring training has begun, and while recent announcements by the Cubs and Padres of nine-figure deals (with Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer, respectively) have quieted cries of collusion from the player’s union, the unemployment level of top free agents remains historic. Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned. The recent mega-contracts have overshadowed the urgency of the situation for these free agents, as they’ve got barely more than a month left to find jobs before Opening Day. As each day passes, it becomes more difficult to simply assume that Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will all agree to terms before that time comes.

The market on the above players isn’t totally cold as of now. On the contrary, there seems to be some buzz surrounding many of them. Here’s what we know at the moment…

Arrieta and his representatives were said to be “having dialogue” as recently as four days ago, and it’s believed that there’s real interest being explored. At the same time, though, there appears to be a gap between the two sides’ bargaining positions. There have also been multiple recent reports that the Phillies don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term deal to improve their rotation. While Darvish fell short of expectations with a $126MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says Boras is attempting to convince front offices that Arrieta compares more favorably to David Price, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. The oft-vehement Boras apparently sees Darvish as an “analytics phenom”, but describes analytics as a “management excuse to keep salaries down.” He also says that Arrieta beats Darvish in something he calls “prestige” value. Heyman lists seven teams as potential landing spots for Arrieta, believing he’s most likely to land with the Nationals, Brewers or Phillies.

Moustakas seems to have little traction with any MLB club at this point. The Braves have engaged his camp, but there seems to be no evidence that a deal is likely to come together. The White Sox have also been loosely linked to him. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll return to Kansas City at this point, as the Royals would apparently rather give Cheslor Cuthbert a shot at third base as they begin to rebuild. Moose reportedly has plenty of one-year offers on the table, but it’s not clear whether he’ll receive any significant multi-year offers at this point in the offseason.

Lynn hasn’t been forced to dramatically lower his asking price, and last we heard, the Twins preferred him to the other options available on the market. Earlier reports suggest he’s received interest from seven or eight teams in recent weeks, including the Orioles, Brewers, Nationals, and Mets in addition to the aforementioned Twins. For his part, Lynn believes there’s “nothing really to worry about — at this moment.“

Holland has the coldest market on this list, at least publicly. The Wade Davis signing seemingly eliminated the possibility of a reunion with the Rockies, and in nearly two months since then, the only public mentions of Holland have been from the Nationals and the Cardinals. Both of those mentions were negative, with the former saying they weren’t very high on him and the latter expressing trepidation about giving a big contract to a closer. Of course, those teams could still be suitors if Holland’s asking price drops far enough, and so could the Indians. I also mentioned the Astros, Rangers, Cubs and Brewers as potential fits back in mid-January.

Cobb reportedly had an offer from the Cubs earlier in the offseason that was said to be in three-year, $42MM range. His camp passed on it, and his market has little in the way of clarity at this point. The Twins showed interest at one point, while the Mets would reportedly explore signing him if his asking price drops far enough. That’s about the only direct link between him and an MLB club we’ve heard about in recent months, though. The Orioles seem to believe he’s too expensive, and the Cubs might not have a clear role for him following the Darvish pact.

A lot can happen in one month; the free agent action so far in February should serve as a prime indicator of that. But at this point it looks possible that one or more of the top ten free agents could hold out into the regular season in hopes of nailing down a guarantee to his liking. With that in mind, I’d like to ask the readers two questions. How many of these players do you think will still be unemployed when the first pitch is thrown on Opening Day, and who do you think is most likely to be unsigned by that point?

Poll link for app users

Poll link for app users

Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Deal

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Unfortunately for those who follow baseball, the most popular topic in the sport this offseason has been the historically slow free-agent market. Upward of 100 players remain without contracts as spring training nears, but the good news is that the top available veteran finally came off the board Saturday.

The six-year, $126MM agreement the Cubs reached with right-hander Yu Darvish will hopefully lead to a flurry of signings in the near future. Regardless of how the majors’ other 29 teams react, it likely concludes the offseason heavy lifting for Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who have added Darvish, two other starters (Tyler Chatwood and the injured Drew Smyly) and a pair of established relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek) to a club that ruled the National League Central in each of the previous two years.

Even without Darvish, the Cubs probably would have entered 2018 as the popular pick to win the division, though arguments could have been made for either the rival Brewers or Cardinals to seriously challenge for the crown. Both Milwaukee and St. Louis have been active this offseason after nearly making the playoffs last year. As things stand, though, they’re clearly looking up at a Cubs team with a set rotation (Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood) and an enviable group of position players. There was speculation earlier in the offseason that Chicago would deal from its lineup and/or farm system to boost the front of its rotation, but bringing in Darvish officially took that possibility out of play.

Along with retaining their position players and prospects, there are other other obvious benefits to picking up Darvish, including that he’s a tremendous starter who should boost the Cubs’ World Series chances in the coming years. The towering flamethrower, who emigrated from Japan in 2012, generally thrived with the Rangers and Dodgers, and there’s little reason to expect he’ll fail in Chicago in the near term. Speaking of the Dodgers, they rank as arguably the prominent concern in the NL for the Cubs (with Darvish’s help, they upended Chicago in the NLCS last season), so pilfering the 31-year-old from LA makes the signing all the more satisfying for Chicago. Plus, because Darvish was part of a midseason trade and wasn’t eligible for an offseason qualifying offer, reeling him in won’t cost the Cubs anything in draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.

With Darvish now in the mix, the Cubs will say goodbye to free agent Jake Arrieta, who did receive a QO after the season. When he heads elsewhere, Chicago will nab a pick after the second round of this year’s draft in return. Of course, even though Darvish is more hyped than Arrieta and will likely end up with the bigger guarantee of the two this winter, some may prefer the latter. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta wasn’t great last season, when he alarmingly lost some velocity, but he has been the more successful of the two in recent years. During his run as a Cub from 2014-17, Arrieta ranked third among starters in ERA (2.67), fifth in fWAR (18.5) and collected a Cy Young Award (2015).

Even if you’d rather have Darvish than Arrieta, the contract comes with some risk for the Cubs (which you’d expect with all big-money accords). Specifically, it’s in the form of an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. If Darvish pitches well enough over the next two years to vacate the deal in favor of another trip to the market, his departure would create a sizable hole for a Chicago team that hasn’t had great success at developing starters during the Epstein era, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required).

On the other hand, should he go downhill during the next two years and stick with his current contract, it could leave the Cubs with another expensive, declining veteran to join Lester (guaranteed $25MM after 2019, including a $10MM buyout for 2021) and outfielder Jason Heyward (guaranteed $86MM from 2020-23). The Cubs took the opt-out risk on Heyward when they signed him to an $184MM contract prior to 2016, when he was one of the sport’s foremost all-around players. Since then, his offensive game has gone in the tank, making it unlikely he’ll leave when he’s allowed to after next season or potentially at the end of the 2019 campaign.

To the Cubs’ credit, the $126MM guarantee looks quite reasonable for Darvish, and at $21MM per year, it’s palatable from a luxury tax standpoint. During a normal winter, Darvish may have ended up with a much wealthier contract. In fact, at the start of what has since turned into a bizarre offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM payday for Darvish, while former FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron forecast an even richer figure ($168MM) over the same term. All things considered, then, it seems the Cubs made out rather well with this move – one they hope will help guide them back to World Series glory in 2018. What are your thoughts?

(Poll link for App users)

Are MLB Players Overpaid?

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MLB players earned more than $4MM on average in 2017, with some players’ salaries exceeding $30MM.  For most people, that’s an unfathomable amount of money.  Many people feel that baseball players and other athletes are overpaid, with the median American full-time worker earning around $45K per year.

Why do people object to MLB player salaries?  One reason is the nature of the profession – Major League Baseball is a game played for the public’s entertainment, while baseball itself is a game many of us played in our youth for the sheer enjoyment of it.  MLB players don’t serve an essential function to society like a teachers or doctors.  And to many, the work of an MLB player seems less difficult and much more enjoyable than a typical job.  It can be difficult to stomach professional athletes earning 100 times or more than that of a typical American.

Another reason some fans consider players to be overpaid is ticket prices.  For a family of four to see the Cubs host the Cardinals on a Saturday in July, sitting in the upper deck, currently costs $565.91 on Stubhub for tickets alone.  Of course, context is everything.  Go to a Rays-White Sox game on a Wednesday afternoon in April, and a family of four can get in the door for $50 or less.  At the heart of the matter: how much do player salaries actually affect ticket prices?  I’m not an economist, but I think one would argue that teams will charge what fans are willing to pay.  If player salaries were magically cut in half tomorrow, but demand for tickets remained the same, would you expect teams to reduce prices?

The other side of the coin is that, as difficult as it may be to accept given their salaries, MLB players might be underpaid.  As an industry, MLB’s revenue has grown to $10 billion.  As Nathaniel Grow wrote on FanGraphs a few years ago, the players’ percentage of that pie has dropped from a peak of 56% in 2002 to less than 40% in 2015.  No one’s suggesting fans should feel sympathy for wealthy MLB players, but rather that they are entitled to fight for their fair share of the sport’s revenue.  After all, without these 1,000 or so players, there’s no MLB.  More money for the players doesn’t have to mean higher ticket prices; it would just mean less for the owners.  Those on this side of the debate would note that MLB players are highly compensated because there are so few people in the world capable of doing their jobs, and interest in watching them perform drives the sport’s revenue.

As tensions mount between the owners and players, let’s see where MLBTR readers stand.  App users can click here to take the poll.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting A Contract For Mike Moustakas

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The market has just not lined up well to this point for former Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas. While we guessed he’d be able to command a five-year commitment and ranked him the sixth-best free agent available in our 2017-18 Top 50 Free Agents list, that level of contract is increasingly difficult to imagine.

In that ranking, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed the Angels, Braves, and Cardinals as conceivable landing spots. In a full breakdown, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted that a variety of other organizations could conceivably get involved on the still-youthful Moustakas. The Giants and Mets were clear possibilities on paper, with some scenarios imaginable in which teams like the Phillies, Red Sox, Indians, Orioles, or Twins might enter the picture. And, of course, the incumbent Royals were expected to remain in the frame to some extent.

As things have shaken out, several of the plausible pursuers have elected to go in different directions. The Angels (Zack Cozart), Giants (Evan Longoria), and Mets (Todd Frazier) now seem clearly out on Moustakas after adding third basemen. Any outside chance that the Phillies would get involved may have disappeared when the team signed Carlos Santana to play first base. There’s no indication that the Red Sox are looking in this direction, the Indians don’t seem to have funds available, and the Orioles and Twins remain only speculative possibilities at this stage. The Royals don’t seem to expect a reunion. While the Cardinals are still a conceivable fit, indications are the organization doesn’t like the match. Though the Braves likewise still theoretically work, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggested on Twitter today that he doesn’t expect the organization to offer up significant money. Developments have left the Yankees seeking a third baseman, but they are walking a luxury tax tightrope.

Quite apart from the broader market slow-down, then, there are arrows pointing toward trouble for agent Scott Boras in finding a major deal for Moustakas. That’s not to say it isn’t possible — it’s worth bearing in mind there was plenty of hand-wringing over Lorenzo Cain before he recently secured a significant contract, and Moustakas is hardly alone among still-unsigned premium free agents — but the picture does seem decidedly different than it did entering the winter.

All said, it seems an opportune moment to see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Can Boras still pull off a big contract? Will “Moose” have to settle for significantly less? Is there a middle ground? Give your opinion here on the sort of contract Moustakas is likeliest to sign (link for app users):

Poll: Who Will Sign Jonathan Lucroy?

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Jonathan Lucroy went into the offseason as the most prominent free agent catcher available, though with February just a day away, Lucroy is still looking for his next team.  Yesterday’s news of an agreement between Alex Avila and the Diamondbacks took yet another potential landing spot off the board for Lucroy, leaving him with a rapidly narrowing list of options as Spring Training approaches.

Sep 22, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy (21) at bat during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

While Lucroy is far from the only notable player whose market has stalled in this unprecedentedly-slow free agent season, his case is a particularly interesting one given the traditional lack of catching depth around baseball.  There was certainly reason for teams to have concern about Lucroy heading into the winter, most notably his decline in power and framing ability and his massive slump in the first half of the 2017 season, yet you’d think that a player with Lucroy’s track record would’ve found some type of acceptable contract given how often teams require an upgrade behind the plate.  It was just in 2016, remember, that Lucroy hit .292/.355/.500 with 24 homers over 544 plate appearances.

As it happened, however, Lucroy seems to have run into something of a perfect storm of circumstances.  Beyond just his down 2017 season and the overall free agent deep freeze, the catching market was further crowded by the presence of J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal as trade candidates.  Lucroy also happened to hit free agency in a winter when most of the contending teams were pretty set behind the plate.  The D’Backs and Rockies both had holes at catcher, though Arizona went with Avila while Colorado signed Chris Iannetta despite some known interest in bringing Lucroy back to Coors Field.

Beyond just the contenders, a larger-than-usual number of teams in various stages of rebuilding phases haven’t had interest in spending significant dollars on a catcher (or, Lucroy may not have interest in finding himself traded at the deadline for the third consecutive year, which would be a distinct possibility if he joined a losing team on a pillow contract).  The White Sox gave Welington Castillo a two-year deal, while other catchers have inked one-year Major League pacts or minor league contracts to serve in backup roles.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Lucroy 20th on our Top 50 Free Agents list, projecting him for a two-year, $24MM deal.  Finding even that modest contract seems unlikely at this point, though that could open the door for more teams to some looking at Lucroy as a potential bargain.  Here are some of the candidates…

Mets: Lucroy reportedly drew some interest from the Amazins earlier this month, and they certainly fit the description of a team that could turn to Lucroy if (or now that) his price tag can fit into their limited budget.  Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link) outlined some of the reasons for a Mets/Lucroy connection this morning, calling him “a perfect fit” given Travis d’Arnaud’s defensive limitations and the fact that d’Arnaud could either be retained as a non-costly backup or perhaps shopped himself in trade talks.

Astros: Aside from the Mets and Rockies, there has been very little buzz about Lucroy on the rumor mill this winter, to the point that this item from Jon Heyman back in November about Houston’s interest in Lucroy represents the only other team linked to the catcher this offseason.  In the two and a half months since Heyman’s report, the Astros agreed to a $6.7MM arbitration-avoiding deal with Evan Gattis and plan to use him as their primary DH, and also signed Tim Federowicz as minor league depth to battle with Max Stassi for the backup job.  A catcher/DH timeshare between Lucroy and starter Brian McCann would’ve been creative, though it doesn’t seem like the Astros still seem like plausible suitors.

Nationals: Unwilling to deal their very best prospects to Miami for Realmuto, the Nats could pivot away from a trade and instead sign Lucroy to supplant Matt Wieters as the everyday catcher.  Lucroy could potentially be a open to a discount to play for a World Series contender like Washington, and even a two-year deal would make a him a nice bridge to Pedro Severino if the Nationals still see the youngster as their catcher of the future.  One obstacle: after getting burned on the Wieters contract, could the Nats be wary about signing another veteran catcher showing signs of decline?

Athletics: In the wake of Bruce Maxwell’s arrest on aggravated assault and disorderly conduct charges, GM David Forst said that the A’s were still counting on Maxwell as their first-choice catcher heading into 2018.  With Lucroy still on the market months later, however, the A’s might take advantage of an opportunity to land a potential star catcher at a lower price.  As mentioned earlier, however, Lucroy might be hesitant to join a team that could again make him a trade deadline chip.

Orioles: Dan Duquette is no stranger to signing free agents still lingering on the market in February.  Top prospect Chance Sisco is slated for regular duty next season, though since 2018 is clearly a go-for-broke season for the O’s with so many big names (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Buck Showalter, and Duquette himself) entering the last year of their contracts, the team might want more of a proven veteran presence behind the plate.

The field: You could stretch and make cases for such teams as the Red Sox, Indians, Brewers, Rangers, Cubs, or Angels as potential Lucroy suitors, though these teams range from “probably only in the event of another trade” or “major longshots.”  Still, we could be in for a wild February of player movement given how much has yet to be decided within the free agent market.  It isn’t out of the question that further trades could open up a spot for Lucroy on an unexpected roster, and an injury in Spring Training could also create a new suitor out of nowhere.

Where do you think Lucroy will be playing come Opening Day? (poll link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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