Poll: When Will Kimbrel & Keuchel Sign?
The season is now well underway, and there’s still no evidence that free agent hurlers Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel are close to inking new deals. It has mostly been crickets on the markets for both.
Kimbrel’s slate of potential suitors isn’t any clearer now than it was when we examined his market situation in early March. Neither has anything of significance occurred since we took a look at the possible Keuchel suitors about a week ago.
Those accomplished hurlers have to this point evidently not been willing to settle for pillow deals. It’s hard to blame them for that stance. It also makes it that much harder to guess how things will turn out — and when there’ll be a resolution.
Teams are continuing to make long-term investments in existing players through contract extensions, so it’s not as if they aren’t willing or able to consider future commitments at this stage of the season. But the ongoing insistence on multiple years seemingly makes it likelier that talks will continue to drag.
Waiting until after the June draft would allow the players to shed draft compensation requirements. When last we saw players approaching this caliber languish on the market into the season, one (Stephen Drew) inked in May while the other (Kendrys Morales) waited until just after the draft. Both settled for single-season deals.
When do you think Kimbrel will end up signing? (Link for app users.)
When will Craig Kimbrel sign?
-
Just after the draft in June (no more draft compensation) 44% (9,828)
-
By the end of April 26% (5,801)
-
Sometime in May 17% (3,776)
-
Won't sign this season 10% (2,172)
-
July or August 3% (736)
-
September (not postseason-eligible) 0% (46)
Total votes: 22,359
And how about Keuchel? (Link for app users.)
When will Dallas Keuchel sign?
-
Just after the draft in June (no more draft compensation) 44% (7,863)
-
By the end of April 25% (4,450)
-
Sometime in May 19% (3,334)
-
Won't sign this season 9% (1,559)
-
July or August 4% (672)
-
September (not postseason-eligible) 0% (71)
Total votes: 17,949
Poll: Which Team Should Splurge On Kimbrel?
We have examined the free agent market from just about every angle imaginable over the course of a long signing period. We’re largely shifting our focus here at MLBTR to analyzing the offseason (through our Offseason In Review series), but there is still work to be done in free agency.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at the market for ace reliever Craig Kimbrel, focusing on the financial situations of various teams that might conceivably consider splurging at this late stage of the offseason. If you’re interested in understanding things from that angle and haven’t done so already, give that post a read. The teams broken out there aren’t the only ones that arguably can and should still be in on Kimbrel; as Steve explained, he did not give a detailed look at some clubs given the stances they took throughout the winter.
For purposes of today’s poll, we’ll open the door a bit wider. In theory, at least, every organization that hopes to be competitive now or even in 2020 ought to have given some amount of thought to what it would pay to secure the services of one of the game’s elite relievers. We know that no team has met Kimbrel’s initial asking price of a record-breaking, long-term deal. Otherwise, the behind-the-scenes market development has been murky.
Clearly, something has to give. Kimbrel will settle for a deal he’s less than enthused about and/or an organization will go beyond its comfort zone. We’ll focus here on the team-side motivation and throw things wide open, removing only a few organizations from the poll. Which of the following clubs do you think ought to be most willing — given its near-term competitive outlook, roster needs, and other commitments — to splurge a bit to land Kimbrel?
(Response order randomized. Link for app users.)
Which team should be most motivated to sign Craig Kimbrel?
-
Braves 15% (4,660)
-
Red Sox 12% (3,731)
-
Cubs 11% (3,169)
-
Phillies 9% (2,592)
-
Cardinals 6% (1,826)
-
Dodgers 5% (1,531)
-
Twins 5% (1,481)
-
Nationals 4% (1,266)
-
Yankees 3% (1,020)
-
Mets 3% (987)
-
Rays 3% (984)
-
Brewers 3% (970)
-
Angels 3% (837)
-
Padres 2% (669)
-
Astros 2% (646)
-
Reds 2% (591)
-
Indians 2% (583)
-
White Sox 1% (424)
-
Blue Jays 1% (418)
-
Giants 1% (376)
-
Mariners 1% (331)
-
Pirates 1% (277)
-
Athletics 1% (249)
-
Rockies 1% (187)
-
Rangers 1% (154)
-
Diamondbacks 0% (137)
Total votes: 30,096
MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?
Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.
With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.
Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.
Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.
The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.
The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.
Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.
Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.
Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.
Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.”
Goldschmidt poll link for app users.
Rendon poll link for app users.
Will the Cards sign Goldschmidt to an extension?
-
Yes, for a lower AAV than Arenado. 59% (4,027)
-
No, he'll make it to free agency. 28% (1,944)
-
Yes, for a higher AAV than Arenado. 13% (909)
Total votes: 6,880
Will the Nats sign Rendon to an extension?
-
Yes, for a lower AAV than Arenado. 57% (3,290)
-
No, he'll make it to free agency. 36% (2,077)
-
Yes, for a higher AAV than Arenado. 6% (363)
Total votes: 5,730
MLBTR Poll: The Bryce Harper Contract
It’s not the biggest-ever salary promise if you account for inflation, but Bryce Harper‘s reported deal with the Phillies does have the highest number ever attached to a big league guarantee: $330MM. The star slugger took a discounted annual rate of pay over 13 seasons to get there. Lacking an opt-out and with full no-trade rights for the player, Harper is rather likely (though hardly assured) to remain in Philadelphia until the end of the 2031 season.
We ran through some of the post-signing reporting on the deal this morning. You’ll find some key details on the negotiations there. Harper’s value has been debated endlessly, of course. Ultimately, the market gave us an answer. But it’s one that many find unappealing, either on the high or low side. For a contract that has been this long in the making — many looked forward to Harper’s free agency before he even signed his first professional contract with the Nationals — it seems worthy of a poll.
How would you characterize the Harper deal? (Link for app users.)
What Did The Phillies Get In The Bryce Harper Deal?
-
an overpay 49% (11,646)
-
a fair market price 34% (8,108)
-
a bargain 16% (3,795)
Total votes: 23,549
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Nolan Arenado Extension
Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.
It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.
The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.
Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.
Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.
All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)
Grade the Rockies' extension of Nolan Arenado
-
A 55% (11,718)
-
B 32% (6,828)
-
C 9% (1,905)
-
D 2% (482)
-
F 2% (439)
Total votes: 21,372
MLBTR Poll: NL Central Hierarchy
When the offseason kicked off, the National League East’s flurry of moves spotlit the four-team race between the Nationals, Braves, Mets and Phillies as a premier event of the 2019 season. Since then, the National League Central has drummed up quite the competition of their own. PECOTA projections for the 2019 season recently surprised many by dropping the Cubs all the way to last place with a projected record of 79-83. The Brewers are pegged to win 88 games, 85 for the Cardinals, 81 for the Reds and 80 for the Pirates, the takeaway here being that there are five competitive clubs with a shot to win the NL Central. Last year the division gave us a three-team race between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers that ended in thrilling fashion. After flirting with the division lead for most of two seasons. the Brew Crew finally caught the Cubs and took the NL Central crown in a one-game playoff. The Brewers are the new kings of the Central, but clocks reset and everyone starts from zero on Opening Day, when the race begins anew.
Not only did the Brewers win the Central in 2018, but they’re on the shortlist for winners of the winter. By adding Yasmani Grandal on a one-year deal, bringing back Mike Moustakas and adding another shifty left-hander to the bullpen in Alex Claudio, the Brewers are going for the kill. They still don’t have a bonafide ace, but they didn’t last year either and the staff is deep. Besides, they have reigning MVP Christian Yelich leading a hungry group that’s gotten better every year under Craig Counsell en route to their NLCS loss to the Dodgers. The young Cubs lost the 2015 NLCS and came back to win it all the next season – the Brewers very well could do the same.
The Cubs still won 95 games, and they are returning close to the same club for 2019. They added around edges with Brad Brach and Xavier Cedeno in the bullpen mix and Daniel Descalso taking over David Ross’ empty seat as spirit of the clubhouse. Otherwise, they kept Cole Hamels around for $20MM, they kept Addison Russell around despite his suspension, but all of a sudden the kingpin of the central has been pronounced dead upon impact. Of course, the frightening amalgamate known as Bryzzo is a proven foundation, and if Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo return to form and stay healthy, the first-place Cubs may yet live again.
The Cardinals machine kept pumping in 2018 en route to 88 wins, and they’ve added perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Matt Carpenter will be hitting leadoff for them again, Yadier Molina remains entrenched behind the plate, and they have a slew of young arms ready to make an impact for the major league club. Question marks surround their most-trusted veteran arms as Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have to prove they’re healthy enough to contribute. Mike Shildt is getting rave reviews for the impact he has had on this ballclub, and in his first full season as skipper, a division title is very much in reach so long as they stick to the Cardinal Way.
In recent seasons, that’s where the conversation has ended – but not this year. The Reds remain a distant fourth for the time being, but for the first time in a long time they made significant upgrades to their starting staff with Alex Wood, Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark. The offense should continue to mash in Great American Ballpark, and there’s some real excitement around this team. Top prospect Nick Senzel may break camp as, suddenly, a centerfielder, but even if he doesn’t, Yasiel Puig is more than happy to stall for time and entertain the crowds in Cincy until Senzel is ready. If nothing else, the Reds are definitely a better team than in 2018, and they’re fun.
The Pirates are the sleeper here, which is a kind way of saying they’re likeliest to land in the cellar. They’ve been mostly forgotten in a winter without a significant free agent acquisition, but they have made changes. Their middle infield plays for the Tigers now, and the new duo of Adam Frazier and Erik Gonzalez don’t have to do a ton to match the production from Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, who combined for only 0.4 rWAR while missing significant chunks of time. GM Neil Huntington’s major additions came last July with Chris Archer and Keone Kela, and this team was better than most of us remember in 2018, finishing with 82 wins. If Archer finds his top form and Jameson Taillon takes a step forward in his development, the Pirates might surprise us.
Maybe the Cubs will surprise everyone and sign Bryce Harper tomorrow, but more than likely these teams are who they are for the beginning of 2019. PECOTA has the Brewers at the top with the other four not far behind. What say you?
Who wins the NL Central in 2019?
-
Brewers 32% (5,108)
-
Cardinals 30% (4,723)
-
Cubs 25% (4,031)
-
Reds 9% (1,422)
-
Pirates 4% (709)
Total votes: 15,993
MLBTR Poll: The Manny Machado Signing
We all knew it would happen at some point, yet somehow it came as a surprise when Manny Machado finally reached agreement on a monster free agent contract. After months of hand-wringing over how much he’d take down, Machado secured a hefty ten-year, $300MM commitment — albeit from a rather unexpected place.
Here at MLBTR, we actually predicted that Machado would secure an even lengthier deal at that $30MM AAV. The bidding frenzy we foresaw never quite developed, as several larger-market clubs stayed on the sideline, but there was still sufficient interest to produce the first-ever $300MM free agent contract.
First question (link for app users):
How would you characterize the Machado deal from a market perspective?
-
Overpay 59% (20,942)
-
Fair Value 38% (13,385)
-
Bargain 3% (955)
Total votes: 35,282
For the Padres, the move brings in a youthful superstar just ahead of the anticipated crest of a wave of internally developed talent. Machado will be on the books for at least five seasons — he’ll have an opt-out opportunity after his age-30 campaign — and could help open a lengthy contention window. Of course, there’s also risk aplenty in a signing of this magnitude, particularly for an organization that doesn’t have immense payroll capacity and has already placed two larger deals on its books (Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer).
Second question (link for app users):
How does the Machado signing look from the Padres' perspective?
-
Wise addition of a superstar 52% (14,475)
-
Foolish risk 48% (13,502)
Total votes: 27,977
As noted above, we anticipated entering the winter that a few more bidders would play major roles in the proceedings. Phillies GM Matt Klentak suggested that strict, emotion-less valuations kept his team from increasing its bid. The Yankees seemingly remained on the periphery, seemingly operating with an even tighter grip on their own payroll space. And that was about it … except for the White Sox. The South Siders were obviously all-in on Machado, pulling out all the stops to make an attractive landing spot and putting up a big offer that included more earning upside (but a smaller guarantee) than the one he ultimately took. In the wake of Machado’s decision, the club’s top execs expressed no small amount of disappointment yesterday at missing on him.
Third question (link for app users):
How does the Machado (non-)signing look from the White Sox' perspective?
-
Missed a unique opportunity 36% (10,081)
-
Dodged a bullet 32% (8,828)
-
Disappointing, but there are other fish in the sea 32% (8,714)
Total votes: 27,623
Poll: Grading The J.T. Realmuto Trade
After several months of nonstop rumors centering on J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins finally found an offer to their liking for the superstar catcher Thursday, when they dealt him to the NL East rival Phillies. Entering the offseason, it seemed inevitable the rebuilding Marlins would part with Realmuto, who made it clear on multiple occasions going back to last winter that he was uninterested in signing an extension with the club.
At times this offseason, Realmuto drew interest from nearly half the league (14 teams), and with such a vast market for his services, Miami spent the past few months holding out for a Godfather offer from one of those clubs. In the end, the Marlins accepted a three-player return consisting of major league catcher Jorge Alfaro, who will immediately replace Realmuto in their starting lineup, two pitching prospects (right-hander Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart) and $250K in international slot money.
For the Phillies, the Realmuto acquisition is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. Coming off their seventh straight non-playoff season and sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Phillies are aiming to push for a playoff spot in 2019 with newcomers Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly Bryce Harper or Manny Machado helping lead the way. And Realmuto – who was the undisputed premier catcher in the game last year – will help their cause beyond the upcoming campaign, as he’s controllable through 2020.
For the Marlins, the Realmuto trade is the latest win-later move dating back to last winter, when the low-budget club traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon for futures. In Alfaro, they received a player who showed a penchant for striking out and little ability to walk from 2017-18, his first two seasons of extensive major league action. But Alfaro was nonetheless respectable at the plate during that span, and the cannon-armed 25-year-old is fresh off a season in which he earned raves from defensive metrics. To this point, then, Alfaro has been a satisfactory pro. However, whether Alfaro will continue to serve as an acceptable starter or fall backward could hinge on improving his high-strikeout, low-walk ways, especially considering he won’t keep running a career .405 batting average on balls in play.
While Alfaro’s the only current major leaguer Miami got for Realmuto, Sanchez looks like the biggest prize. Despite the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder’s diminutive stature, each of FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law rank Sanchez between fifth and 35th on their list of the majors’ top prospects. All of those outlets and individuals agree the flamethrowing Sanchez has the upside of a front-line rotation piece, and at 20 years old, he’ll breathe new life into the Marlins’ farm system. Although Sanchez hasn’t pitched above the High-A level yet, once he gets to Miami, he could emerge as its best starter since the Jose Fernandez era came to a tragic conclusion in 2016.
Stewart, 21, is far less intriguing than Sanchez, with MLB.com ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 25 prospect. Whereas Sanchez is a potential No. 1 starter who possesses electrifying velocity, MLB.com regards Stewart as a possible back-end type whose velocity is “average.” To Stewart’s credit, though, he did post tremendous results last year at the Single-A level, where he logged a 2.06 ERA with 7.13 K/9, 1.66 BB/9 and a 62.1 percent groundball rate, mimicking the best version of Dallas Keuchel in that regard.
With Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and a bit more international spending room in tow, there’s plenty for Miami to dream on going forward. The Phillies, meanwhile, made a substantial near-term upgrade behind the plate, albeit one that cost them their previous No. 1 prospect and another promising hurler. In your estimation, how did the two teams fare in this swap? Cast your votes below…
(Phillies poll link for app users; Marlins poll link for app users)
Grade the Realmuto trade for the Phillies
-
A 41% (9,024)
-
B 40% (8,825)
-
C 14% (3,076)
-
D 4% (780)
-
F 2% (467)
Total votes: 22,172
Grade the Realmuto trade for the Marlins
-
B 35% (7,060)
-
A 27% (5,373)
-
C 26% (5,184)
-
D 8% (1,637)
-
F 4% (884)
Total votes: 20,138
Poll: Marwin Gonzalez’s Payday
29-year-old Marwin Gonzalez – he’ll be 30 by Opening Day – entered the offseason primed to a secure healthy payday from one of perhaps two dozen interested suitors around the league. Armed with gloves to play six positions, an incredibly goofy nickname christened by superagent Scott Boras, and the whiff of 2017’s 4.0 fWAR breakout still detectable to the sharpest of senses, Gonzalez’s camp has touted the longtime Astro as the right-sized plug to fill almost any hole.
But the market surrounding the Venezuelan-born infielder/outfielder, to this point in the offseason, has been exceedingly quiet – muzzled, even. The Braves, Padres, and Astros have all been connected to Gonzalez at various hot-stove junctures, though none seem particularly aggressive. Other teams, like the oft-linked Brewers and Cubs, or the MLBTR-projected Twins, seem to have no interest at all. Is the tepidity a product of an exorbitant Boras ask, or are teams just not nearly as enamored with “Swiss G” as originally surmised?
Gonzalez, who scuffled through seven minor league seasons before his 2012 debut with the Astros, has turned in a number of solid-to-good offensive seasons in the majors, posting above-league-average marks in four of the last five. His overhauled approach – more walks, fewer balls on the ground – has paid dividends as well, with the aforementioned 2017 breakout (.303/.377/.530) his career high-water mark. While not a multi-positional defensive wizard like Ben Zobrist, Gonzalez has acquitted himself well all across the diamond, and could conceivably be a full-time fit at second base, third, or in the corner outfield.
Still, one can’t exactly use a pen when projecting Gonzalez’s forthcoming production. The best utility men are at least competent at shortstop, and Gonzalez, who’s nearing the age at which range, in both the infield and outfield, declines precipitously, has been dreadful there. The track record, too, is a little light, and Steamer, arguably the standard in baseball’s forecasting industry, projects the utility man to post just 1.3 WAR this season (the number is closer to two when assuming full-time play).
In the free agent freeze of the last two offseasons, it’s the mid-tier player who’s been hurt the worst. Always reluctant to dish out the long term deal, teams now balk at even short-term ones for players whose production can safely be approximated by much cheaper, in-system options. Houston’s Tony Kemp, while probably not an option at shortstop, would seem to fit this bill, as would a number of others on suspected Gonzalez suitors around the league.
How Much Guaranteed Money Will Marwin Gonzalez Earn On His Next Deal?
-
$11MM-20MM 39% (6,199)
-
$1MM-10MM 26% (4,152)
-
$21MM-30MM 24% (3,875)
-
$31MM-40MM 8% (1,260)
-
$41MM+ 3% (464)
Total votes: 15,950
Poll: Projecting Luke Voit’s 2019
Among major leaguers who finished with at least 150 plate appearances in 2018, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout unsurprisingly led the way in wRC+ (191). But who finished second? Was it AL MVP Mookie Betts, NL MVP Christian Yelich or another big-name superstar? No, it was Luke Voit, who put up a 187 wRC+ in 161 PAs divided between the Cardinals and Yankees. Voit took a mere 13 trips to the plate until late July, when New York acquired him from St. Louis for a pair of relievers, and then proceeded to give the first baseman-needy Yankees an answer at the position over the final couple months of the season.
During his first 148 PAs as a Yankee, the burly, boisterous Voit batted a video game-like .322/.398/.671 with a Ruthian ISO (.350) and 15 home runs. And Statcast backed up Voit’s production, ranking the soon-to-be 28-year-old first in barrels per plate appearance and expected weighted on-base average (.437) among those who racked up at least 150 PAs on the season. While Voit benefited from a .365 batting average on balls in play, a number he may not approach again, the Yankees are understandably optimistic he’s good enough to serve as their No. 1 option at first going forward.
This has been an active offseason in the infield for New York, which has signed DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki while showing interest in Manny Machado, but the team has been quiet at first base. Despite Voit’s limited track record, the right-handed slugger’s incredible showing toward the end of 2018 has made him the odds-on favorite to start at first in 2019 for the Yankees, whose previous long-term hope, the lefty-swinging Greg Bird, has fallen short of expectations because of a spate of injuries and less-than-stellar overall production. The Yankees have been bullish on Bird, but he missed all of 2016 because of a shoulder injury, and then produced very little from 2017-18 while dealing with foot problems. His horrific 2018 campaign made it necessary for the World Series-contending Yankees to address first, where they ultimately chose to turn to Voit over the summer.
While it’s still too soon to give up on the 26-year-old Bird, he may not receive regular playing time with the Yankees again unless Voit falls flat. Although Bird was a much better prospect than Voit during their younger days, there’s no doubt the latter has been the superior major leaguer to this point. Consequently, as the Yankees prepare for a championship push, they’ll continue with Voit at first, undoubtedly hoping last season wasn’t a mirage and they’ve acquired a star-caliber hitter for next to nothing.
The Steamer projection system doesn’t expect the 2019 version of Voit to serve as an offensive force, though, as it predicts he’ll wind up with an above-average but hardly world-beating .262/.335/.458 line. That would make for a .793 OPS, far better than what Yankees first basemen managed from 2016-18 but also much less impressive than the production Voit offered during his abbreviated showing last season. Now that he’s the Yankees’ preferred choice at first, how do you expect Voit to perform in 2019?
(link for app users)
Predict Luke Voit's 2019 OPS
-
.800-.850 33% (4,599)
-
.751-.799 33% (4,595)
-
.750 Or Below 18% (2,591)
-
.851-.899 10% (1,381)
-
.900 Or Better 6% (883)
Total votes: 14,049
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.