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MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Sign Greg Holland?

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There has been a fair amount of reporting this winter on Greg Holland, the wild card on the closer’s market. While we won’t ever know just how much he’d have earned if his last two seasons had matched the three that came before — which would have made him the fourth top-end reliever available this winter — we will learn before too long just how much an organization is willing to commit to see if he can still return to being one of the game’s best relievers.

Holland is still working back from Tommy John surgery, but figures to be prepared for a full 2017 season, adding to the interest. Last we checked, he was angling for a one-year deal with a player option for a second (or, if you prefer, a two-year deal with an opt-out clause) — essentially, a fairly hefty guarantee with the chance to return to the market if all goes well. That he thinks he can command such a contract speaks to the level of interest.

At last look, the 31-year-old was engaged with the Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Reds, and Rays, with the Cubs and Royals seemingly having fallen out of the race. If the Brewers finalize their reported push to sign Neftali Feliz, they may also be out of the hunt, though that’s still not certain.

For the time being, those other five organizations are perhaps the most likely suitors. Of the group, the win-now Nationals are in most obvious need of an experienced closer. But the Reds could give Holland the 9th, too, as might the Rockies and even the Rays — in the unlikely event that they strike a deal to move Alex Colome. Only the Dodgers seem clearly set to utilize a different pitcher in the closer’s role, though Los Angeles could certainly stand to boost its setup corps in front of re-signed reliever Kenley Jansen.

It’s still possible that a dark horse could emerge, but it seems reasonable to expect a signing before too long. So, it’s time to get your picks in: who do you expect to sign Holland? (Link for app users.)

Poll: What Will Dodgers Do About Second Base?

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Having re-signed top free agents Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner and Rich Hill this winter, the Dodgers – winners of four straight NL West titles – once again look like World Series contenders as the 2017 campaign nears. One glaring weakness on the roster is at second base, where Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have been on a well-documented quest to improve since the Cubs eliminated them from the NLCS last October.

Brian Dozier

Los Angeles’ search for help at the keystone has centered on the Twins’ Brian Dozier, who established himself as a very good player from 2013-15 and then performed like a star last year. Dozier slugged 42 home runs, becoming just the fourth second baseman in league history to swat 40-plus in a season, while also providing value on the bases and in the field.

With the Twins in a rebuild, it makes sense that the Dodgers have pursued Dozier, but they haven’t been able to pry him from Minnesota. It doesn’t appear they will, either, as the two sides are at an “impasse” because LA has refused to add prospects Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart to its Jose De Leon-fronted offer.

With a Dozier pickup seemingly unlikely, the Dodgers could look to other quality second basemen potentially on the trade market in the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Rays’ Logan Forsythe. Aside from their status as above-average players, those two share other similarities with Dozier: They’re under contract for two more years at affordable rates (Kinsler could demand an extension to waive his no-trade clause, though), meaning they won’t be easy to acquire, and they’re right-handed hitters. The latter point should be of considerable intrigue to the Dodgers, who had the majors’ worst offense against left-handed pitchers last season. All of Dozier, Kinsler and Forsythe hold their own versus southpaws and would greatly help the Dodgers’ cause in that regard.

If the Dodgers aren’t able to swing a trade for a high-impact second baseman, they’ll be left to pick from scraps in free agency and/or pin their hopes on uninspiring in-house options. The top name on the open market is Chase Utley, who has spent the past season-plus with the Dodgers. The longtime Phillie was fine in 2016, hitting .252/.319/.396 with 14 home runs and accounting for a league-average fWAR (2.0) in 565 plate appearances. His age (38) is a concern, however, as is the fact that lefty pitchers have confounded him in back-to-back seasons (.170/.245/.271 in a combined 212 PAs). Nevertheless, cognizant that they might not be able to improve at second via trade, the Dodgers have interest in re-signing Utley.

Whether it’s Utley, another free agent or a trade acquisition, it does seem as if an outsider will be the Dodgers’ primary second baseman in 2017. Their current options – Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Charlie Culberson, Jose Miguel Fernandez and backup catcher Austin Barnes – don’t carry much appeal as regulars. It’s still possible, granted, that the Dodgers will roll with that that group to at least begin the season. What do you think they’ll do?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Do Astros Need To Acquire Front-End Starter?

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As a result of a somewhat disappointing 2016 that began with World Series aspirations and ended with a third-place finish in the AL West, the Astros have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason. Since November, Houston has either traded for or signed Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki and Charlie Morton in an attempt to beef up a roster that won 84 games last season. You’ll notice that only one of those five – Morton – is a starting pitcher, and he’s a back-end type who has dealt with a laundry list of injuries during his career.

Jose Quintana

The Astros’ inability to acquire a front-line starter this winter to join Morton and others in their rotation hasn’t been for a lack of trying, of course. To this point, the team has pursued trades for ex-White Sox and now-Red Sox ace Chris Sale, current ChiSox No. 1 Jose Quintana, various members of the Rays’ rotation – including Chris Archer – as well as Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura of the Royals. Astros president Reid Ryan has even publicly opined that the club is missing an ace.

“What we lack is that starter who you pencil in at the top of the rotation that is an automatic W,” Ryan told MLB Network Radio in December.

Of the starters the Astros have courted via trade, they’ve been the most aggressive with the 27-year-old Quintana, who has both an outstanding track record and an ultra-affordable contract. Houston and Chicago have been in touch on a daily basis regarding Quintana, though the Astros haven’t been willing to sacrifice possible long-term rotation pieces to land the southpaw. That includes 24-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove, who had an encouraging major league debut last season, and fellow righty Francis Martes. Unlike Musgrove, Martes hasn’t reached the big league level, but the 21-year-old was terrific with Double-A Corpus Christi in 2016 and now ranks as MLB.com’s 29th-best prospect.

“It would take something significant for us to move him,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said of Martes last month.

While Quintana does qualify as “significant,” it’s debatable whether a No. 1-type starter is more of a need than a luxury for the Astros. Their premier option, lefty Dallas Keuchel, took sizable steps backward last season as he dealt with shoulder troubles, yet he isn’t far removed from a two-year run of brilliance that culminated with the AL Cy Young Award in 2015. Shoulder issues also limited curveball-heavy righty Lance McCullers last season, but the 23-year-old has been highly effective when healthy since debuting in 2015. Across 206 2/3 innings, McCullers has logged a 3.22 ERA, 10.23 K/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 50.5 percent ground-ball rate.

The other members of the Astros’ projected starting five – Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Morton – have decidedly less upside than Keuchel and McCullers, but each are capable major league starters. And, in the event of injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Astros possess depth with Musgrove, Martes, Brady Rodgers and David Paulino either ready for the majors or close to it. Further, led by Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz, Houston has a deep bullpen that can shorten games and take pressure off its rotation.

In the end, it would certainly be a boon for the Astros to add Quintana (or someone of his ilk) to what looks like a playoff-caliber roster. At least opening the season with their current contingent of rotation options would be far from catastrophic, though, and Luhnow could continue to monitor the trade market during the season if his starters don’t suffice. Of course, judging by his ongoing interest in Quintana, it seems Luhnow wants to bolster his rotation before the 2017 campaign commences. But does he really need to?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Twins Trade Brian Dozier?

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We’ve heard plenty over recent weeks about the Twins’ negotiations with rival clubs over star second baseman Brian Dozier. Minnesota reportedly asked interested suitors for their final offers in late December, but nothing more has emerged since (at least, not yet).

The Dodgers have been tied most heavily, and probably represent the cleanest fit. But the two organizations are said to be haggling over a complementary piece to accompany intriguing righty Jose De Leon, who’d seem to represent a worthwhile centerpiece. We’ve heard suggestions that the division-rival Giants could also be involved, though it has never been apparent whether San Francisco is fully engaged on Dozier. Likewise, the Cardinals and Nationals have been mentioned as possibilities, but it’s questionable at best whether either could represent a serious pursuer. There are a few other organizations that seem like hypothetical matches on paper, but we have yet to hear any suggestion of broader interest.

That’s hardly an optimal situation for the Twins, who would obviously prefer to see some bidding on a player who has compiled about 14 fWAR over the last three seasons and is owed just $15MM for his age-30 and 31 seasons. While it’s fair to wonder whether Dozier can maintain anything like the power surge he showed last year (.278 ISO, 42 home runs), he’s not dependent upon gaudy dinger tallies for all of his value. Dozier also rates as an outstanding overall baserunner and solid-enough up-the-middle defender, and has never slipped below league-average offensive production since establishing himself in the majors, so there’s a solid floor to go with his newly established ceiling.

All said, it would be hard for Minnesota to part with that package for anything less than what it deems to be fair value. If that can’t be found now, then perhaps the organization will just have to take Dozier into the season and take on the risks of waiting for a trade-deadline deal. That approach has paid off in some cases (Cole Hamels, Jonathan Lucroy) while backfiring in others (Tyson Ross). Ultimately, if the Giants aren’t willing to push the envelope, and no additional teams step into the fray, then this may simply turn into a staring contest between Derek Falvey and Andrew Friedman.

So, MLBTR readers, what do you think is most likely? Will the Twins strike a deal at some point in the coming weeks, or will Dozier still be at second base in Minnesota for the coming season (or, at least, part of it)? (Link for app users.)

Poll: Free Agent Relievers

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Before they inked mega-deals earlier this offseason, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon understandably dominated headlines as the unquestioned best relievers available in free agency. No one remaining on the market will land a contract even approaching theirs (Melancon’s on the low end at a whopping $62MM), but there are still several proven late-game commodities who haven’t signed yet.

Melancon is taking over as the Giants’ closer, a role previously held by a pair of current free agents in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. The 36-year-old Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.

Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.

No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.

Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.

Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.

While these five aren’t in the Chapman-Jansen-Melancon class, all could serve as boons to their next teams’ bullpens. In your opinion, which member of the group is the most desirable target? Or, instead of this quintet, maybe there’s another free agent reliever you’d rather have.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Poll: Boston’s Catcher Of The Future

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Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart “has been told there will be no more experimenting with other positions” in 2017, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford. His outfield experiment is seemingly over, meaning he’ll return to his original position of catcher and remain there exclusively for the foreseeable future.

Swihart, 25 in April, has long rated as one of the game’s best all-around prospects. However, questions surrounding his defensive prowess (and the presence of many other catchers on the Boston roster) led the Sox to try Swihart in left field last year. However, the experiment proved to be an ill-fated one, as Swihart suffered a severe ankle injury shortly into his first exposure to outfield work and wound up undergoing season-ending surgery to repair the matter.

That injury made the 2016 campaign an abbreviated and disappointing one for Swihart, who finished the year with a lackluster .258/.365/.355 batting line in just 79 Major League plate appearances to go along with a .243/.344/.311 slash in 122 PAs with Triple-A Pawtucket. Despite those offensive struggles and some apparent questions about his defensive capabilities, though, the Red Sox don’t appear to have soured on Swihart. On the contrary, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported again this week that the Diamondbacks inquired with Boston on both Swihart and Christian Vazquez and found president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski reluctant to deal either young backstop. That leaves the Red Sox with three catching options in 2017 and well beyond, creating for a somewhat uncertain outlook.

As Bradford writes, Sandy Leon will be given the first crack at regular playing time in 2017 as he looks to show that his 2016 breakout is sustainable. Leon finished the season with a sensational .310/.369/.476 batting line in 283 plate appearances, but his bat wilted in the season’s final month. In addition to that, Leon’s .392 average on balls in play appears entirely unsustainable, especially for a player that has such limited speed. Leon batted an incredible .366 on grounders putting him on par with burners like Billy Hamilton and Trea Turner. Meanwhile, the league as a whole batted just .239 on grounders, and one can reasonably expect a player with Leon’s lack of speed to check in below the mean over a larger sample of at-bats.

Nonetheless, Leon thwarted a stellar 41 percent of attempted stolen bases last season, and while he rated as a somewhat below-average pitch framer, per Baseball Prospectus, he has a strong track record in that regard when looking at his minor league career as a whole. At the very least, he could be a sound defensive option that hits from both sides of the plate, and he’s controllable through 2020. Certainly, there’s value in Leon, the question for Dombrowski & Co. is simply how much of his seemingly out-of-the-blue offensive gains in 2016 are sustainable.

Swihart figures to battle with Vazquez to see who will back up Leon to open the season, but if Leon sputters then either of the two promising young understudies could eventually find himself in a more prominent role with the Sox in 2017. Swihart does have a minor league option remaining, so he can be sent down without being exposed to waivers if the Sox wish to get him some more work both behind and at the plate in the wake of his truncated 2016 campaign.

As recently as the 2014-15 offseason, Swihart rated as the game’s No. 17 overall prospect, per Baseball America, who praised him as a potential two-way force behind the dish. Swihart didn’t begin switch-hitting or catching until he was about halfway through high school, and BA’s scouting report noted that the lack of lifetime experience in both regards always created the potential for some growing pains as he got to the upper levels of the minors and into the Major Leagues. “There’s a chance that his aggressive tendencies will be exploited by advanced pitching, which could result in a challenging transition to the big leagues after a lengthy apprenticeship in Pawtucket in 2015,” BA wrote at the time. But Swihart’s overall package of tools and athleticism undoubtedly remain appealing to both the Red Sox and to other organizations. It’s understandable, then, that Dombrowski and his staff aren’t exactly keen on trading him at all, let alone when his value is at a low point.

Vazquez, meanwhile, never generated the same level of prospect fanfare that Swihart did. However, he’s long been touted as one of the best defensive catchers in all of Minor League Baseball, and his superlative glovework gives him a high floor. He’s thrown out 44 percent of attempted base thieves at the Major League level and a similarly impressive 38 percent caught-stealing rate over the life of his minor league career. Vazquez has drawn consistently excellent framing marks throughout his minor league career and is a .273/.339/.379 hitter in 109 Triple-A games. He missed the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery, but the procedure didn’t seem to have an adverse affect on his throwing in 2016, as he caught 19 of 47 runners between the Majors and Triple-A (40.4 percent).

BA’s most recent scouting report on Vazquez cites “sneaky” pop that could yield an annual home-run total in the low double digits, and he did hit 18 homers at Class-A back in 2011, though that’s the lone pro season in which he’s demonstrated significant power, and it’s quite a ways in the rear-view mirror at this point. Still, given his defensive ceiling, Vazquez doesn’t need to be a star at the plate to be a starter in the Majors.

To somewhat crudely sum things up, Leon has had the most success in the Majors, while Swihart has the highest offensive ceiling of the bunch and Vazquez has the best defensive skill-set. The Red Sox will devote countless hours of evaluation to answering this question (and likely have already been doing so for the past year), but let’s see what MLBTR readership thinks on the matter (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Who’s On First For The 2017 Rockies?

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The Rockies surprised most everyone when they signed Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70MM contract. But eyebrows really shot up when the team said that it intends to utilize the shortstop-turned-center fielder at yet another new position: first base.

While there’s little reason to suspect that Desmond isn’t capable of handling the position defensively, it’s a bit of an odd fit. Desmond has settled in as a solid-but-not-great hitter who contributes quite a bit on the bases, making for an offensive profile that isn’t substantially better than a variety of other players who are presumably available for much less money. His real value lies in the fact that he can do those things while also playing premium defensive positions.

It’s debatable just how good of an outfielder Desmond will be going forward, as his initially strong metrics slipped over the course of the 2016 season. He could probably still contribute all over the infield, too, as he retains the athleticism and arm strength that made him a quality shortstop in the not-so-distant past. (The miscues, alas, probably mean he won’t again play short unless a mid-season need arises.) That versatility led some to suggest that Desmond could sign as a Ben Zobrist-type, everyday utility player.

To be fair, Colorado could plan to keep Desmond at first for just a single season, shifting him back to the outfield in 2018. And the team could value the fact that he’d represent an option elsewhere if there’s an injury. But free-agent contracts are signed primarily for the contributions that a player provides in the early years of a deal, and it’s arguable that Desmond will represent a fairly middling overall option at first, which is traditionally the realm of quality batsmen who simply can’t field other positions.

Of course, the Rockies also still possess a seeming glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders. Desmond makes a good bit of sense as a right-handed outfield piece to join that mix, with one pre-existing player being cashed in via trade. Both Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl can handle center; Carlos Gonzalez is still viewed as an everyday corner piece; and Gerardo Parra was signed to be a heavily-used fourth outfielder. All four hit from the left side, as do other potential MLB options such as Jordan Patterson and Raimel Tapia.

So, whatever the team’s true intentions, it remains plausible to imagine that a trade will open up a move of Desmond to a corner outfield spot, with the Rockies adding another player (or multiple players) to play at first. The free-agent market remains chock full of possibilities. Mark Trumbo and Mike Napoli could be signed as everyday options, though only the former has clearly been linked to Colorado. We’ve heard of at least some interest on the Rox’ behalf in Chris Carter, who might conceivably take the lion’s share of the work while being paired with a lefty bat. Brandon Moss, Logan Morrison, Pedro Alvarez, and Adam Lind could represent left-handed platoon options, with any number of righties joining them to face opposing southpaws. Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe are primarily third basemen, but could also represent fits. (Highly-regarded prospect Ryan McMahon could also be a factor at some point; the left-handed hitter only just turned 22, and didn’t exactly dominate at Double-A last year, but could conceivably be ready later in 2017.)

There are trade possibilities, too, whether or not that might come in a hypothetical swap involving one of the outfielders. Colorado has explored a deal for White Sox slugger Jose Abreu, who would represent a major acquisition. His teammate, Todd Frazier, is surely also on the blocks, and could conceivably be shifted across the diamond from third, though that’s pure speculation. It’s hard to see any other established regulars being made available at this stage; the Padres’ Wil Myers, for example, would probably only be dealt at a tremendous price. And other quality, controllable pieces likely wouldn’t be available unless the Rockies were willing to part with Dahl or a top prospect. But part-time options — most notably, perhaps, Matt Adams of the Cardinals — could well be had for a modest return.

Given the lay of the land, what’s your best bet as to how the Rockies end up filling their first-base job in 2017? (Answer options randomized; app users can weigh in here.)

Extension Faceoff: Odubel Herrera vs. Ender Inciarte

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The Phillies and Braves have been on remarkably similar paths this winter, seeking to boost near-term performance without jeopardizing their long-term rebuilding plans. Most notably, that has involved collecting veteran pieces (especially starters) on expensive, one-year deals.

While neither of the N.L. East rivals appear to be ready to add truly significant, long-term pieces via free agency, both were willing to make targeted investments to enhance their control over their own players this winter. Specifically, Philadelphia and Atlanta found common ground with their young center fielders, Odubel Herrera, who turns 25 on Thursday, and Ender Inciarte, who just turned 26.

It’s probably not entirely coincidental that the two pacts — struck within about a week of one another — were structured so similarly. Both players are in the 2+ service class, meaning they each already had four years of team control to go, though Inciarte had qualified as a Super Two. Instead, each player committed at least one would-be free-agent year to his team, in exchange for nearly identical guarantees: Herrera gets $30.5MM, Inciarte $30.525MM. The only meaningful difference came on the option front. The Phils can control Herrera for two more seasons (at $11.5MM and $12.5MM), while the Braves only get one additional year of control over Inciarte, but need pay him only $9MM to utilize it.

Of course, the two are hardly identical players. Herrera possesses a bigger bat, having produced at a 111 wRC+ rate over his first two MLB seasons, while Inciarte is more of a league-average hitter. Though both add value with their legs and gloves, the latter is the more accomplished in both regards. All things considered, both have established themselves as solidly above-average regulars and appear set to provide plenty of value to their respective employers over the duration of their new contracts.

Herrera arguably comes with greater upside, given the increasing power (and improved walk rate) he demonstrated last year. But you could also reasonably suggest that Inciarte’s superior value in other aspects of the game makes him a surer bet to remain a quality center fielder into his early thirties. So, just for fun, which player’s contract looks like the better bet? (Those using the Trade Rumors mobile app can weigh in here.)

Poll: Dubious December Decisions

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With an action-packed December on the verge of ending (happy holidays, MLBTR fans!), the most entertaining moments of Major League Baseball’s Hot Stove season have likely passed. As evidenced by what’s left of a free agent class that was uninspiring from the outset, the majority of this winter’s top available players have already found new homes. On the trade front, it’s possible we won’t see any more blockbusters, though this month’s Winter Meetings certainly brought a couple memorable ones that will hugely impact the involved franchises for years to come.

Of all the transactions that have taken place in December, there are a few which arguably stand out as head-scratchers. We’ll touch on a trio of those moves below and ask the readers to share their opinions via the poll and comments section:

Nationals send a prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton: Both sides made out well in this trade from my vantage point, but the Nationals have drawn criticism for surrendering two of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), and 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire Eaton. After making the deal at the Winter Meetings, Nationals president and general manager Mike Rizzo told predecessor Jim Bowden (now of ESPN and Sirius XM) that he was “getting barbecued.” Bowden is one of Rizzo’s most outspoken critics in this case, as he regards it as the “worst trade” he has ever seen (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post).

If you’re to believe wins above replacement, the well-rounded Eaton has been among the majors’ most valuable outfielders during his three full major league seasons, having combined for 12.8 fWAR and 15.3 rWAR in 1,933 plate appearances dating back to 2014. The 28-year-old also possesses one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts for an established player, which made it all the more reasonable for rebuilding Chicago to demand a ransom in return. Eaton is controllable for the next five seasons, including club options in 2020 and ’21, at a maximum value of $38MM. He and Bryce Harper should form two-thirds of an excellent outfield in D.C. for at least two seasons (Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 campaign), though the latter’s presence in right will force Eaton to center. Eaton’s coming off a season in which he was an elite defender in right with a major league-high 23.1 Ultimate Zone Rating and 22 Defensive Runs Saved (second). The metrics haven’t liked Eaton nearly as much in center (minus-21 UZR, minus-8 DRS in 3,115 career innings), which – along with the young pitchers the Nationals lost – has led to skepticism regarding Washington’s half of the trade.

Rockies spend $70MM over five years on Ian Desmond … to play first base? After receiving replacement-level production at first last year from a slew of players (mostly Mark Reynolds), Colorado entered the offseason in desperate need at the position. The Rockies also came into the winter having promised to post a franchise-record payroll in 2017, so the fact that they prioritized first and allocated big money to it wasn’t a shock. But, instead of adding one of the many first base types available, they weirdly signed Desmond. The career shortstop/outfielder will now occupy the least valuable defensive position on the field, and his bat won’t play as well there as it has at short or in center field. With Texas last season, the 31-year-old Desmond spent the vast majority of his time in center and logged a solid 106 wRC+ (league average for the position in 2016 was 96). If he’d have recorded the same production at first, where the league-average wRC+ was 108, he’d have been a much less appealing offensive cog. Nevertheless, if you’re to believe Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, Desmond will be their first baseman going forward. Considering both the money the Rockies gave Desmond and the first-round pick they lost to sign him (the eminently valuable 11th overall selection), it comes off as an odd choice.

Yankees reunite with Aroldis Chapman: It was hardly surprising that the Yankees brought back Chapman, whom they traded to the Cubs for star prospect Gleyber Torres at last summer’s deadline, or inked him to a record contract for a reliever. After all, MLBTR predicted he’d secure a five-year, $90MM accord from the Bombers, who ended up giving him an $86MM guarantee over a half-decade. The problem is twofold (and this ignores Chapman’s past domestic violence issues): 1. The Yankees are bent on getting under the luxury tax threshold soon (they’re on track to exceed it for a 15th straight year in 2017), and splurging on a reliever won’t help their cause. 2. The deal grants Chapman the ability to opt out after Year 3, which doesn’t seem to align with their window of contention. New York is amid a retooling phase and has been stockpiling youth as a result, so touted prospects like Torres, Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, among others, might not be ready to hit their respective strides for another few years. By then, Chapman could be in another uniform. In the meantime, and in fairness to the Yankees, the flame-throwing left-hander should continue serving as a dominant closer who helps them lock down late-game leads. But whether they’ll have enough of those leads to be a playoff team in the near future is in question.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Edwin Encarnacion End Up?

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With negotiations seemingly taking place in earnest for free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, let’s see where the MLBTR readership sees things heading. These are the reported suitors that are still trying to land him (in alphabetical order):

Astros: Houston long seemed like a clear possibility, but various other moves made a big strike for Encarnacion appear unlikely. But the ’Stros could still clear the way for a big bat, especially if the team ends up dealing other pieces to add a starter.

Athletics: A true dark horse, the A’s have always had the need for a big bat, but were a questionable fit in terms of budget. Just how high Oakland is willing to bid isn’t known, but it now seems clear that the team is firmly in the hunt.

Blue Jays: The incumbent Jays are said to be fading as a destination, but Encarnacion’s camp has long suggested its his preference to stay in Toronto, and it’s still possible that he could fit.

Indians: Fresh off a World Series appearance, Cleveland has a bit more budget flexibility than usual and could certainly stand to add a significant hitter to the middle of its order. We’ve heard varying suggestions of the organization’s willingness to spend, but the latest indication is that the Indians are pushing to land EE.

Rangers: Texas remains arguably the best fit on paper, even if its front office has repeatedly poured cold water on the likelihood of such a big signing for the past several weeks.

Other: Encarnacion’s agent, Paul Kinzer, says that there are at least six teams to have made three or four-year offers, noting that National League clubs have been involved as well. The Rockies and Cardinals appear to be the most sensible N.L. possibilities, with Colorado acknowledging that it’s at least monitoring the market and reports suggesting that St. Louis may take a look as well.

While at least five American League teams are now known to be in pursuit, it’s imaginable that others, too, have entered the bidding (or, perhaps, still will). The Mariners, Orioles, and Red Sox are among the organizations that could conceivably still be involved (though Boston has quite recently downplayed that possibility).

So, now’s the time to enter your bets: which team is most likely to land the best remaining free agent? (Order randomized; link for app users.)

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