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Poll: Boston’s Catcher Of The Future

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Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart “has been told there will be no more experimenting with other positions” in 2017, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford. His outfield experiment is seemingly over, meaning he’ll return to his original position of catcher and remain there exclusively for the foreseeable future.

Swihart, 25 in April, has long rated as one of the game’s best all-around prospects. However, questions surrounding his defensive prowess (and the presence of many other catchers on the Boston roster) led the Sox to try Swihart in left field last year. However, the experiment proved to be an ill-fated one, as Swihart suffered a severe ankle injury shortly into his first exposure to outfield work and wound up undergoing season-ending surgery to repair the matter.

That injury made the 2016 campaign an abbreviated and disappointing one for Swihart, who finished the year with a lackluster .258/.365/.355 batting line in just 79 Major League plate appearances to go along with a .243/.344/.311 slash in 122 PAs with Triple-A Pawtucket. Despite those offensive struggles and some apparent questions about his defensive capabilities, though, the Red Sox don’t appear to have soured on Swihart. On the contrary, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported again this week that the Diamondbacks inquired with Boston on both Swihart and Christian Vazquez and found president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski reluctant to deal either young backstop. That leaves the Red Sox with three catching options in 2017 and well beyond, creating for a somewhat uncertain outlook.

As Bradford writes, Sandy Leon will be given the first crack at regular playing time in 2017 as he looks to show that his 2016 breakout is sustainable. Leon finished the season with a sensational .310/.369/.476 batting line in 283 plate appearances, but his bat wilted in the season’s final month. In addition to that, Leon’s .392 average on balls in play appears entirely unsustainable, especially for a player that has such limited speed. Leon batted an incredible .366 on grounders putting him on par with burners like Billy Hamilton and Trea Turner. Meanwhile, the league as a whole batted just .239 on grounders, and one can reasonably expect a player with Leon’s lack of speed to check in below the mean over a larger sample of at-bats.

Nonetheless, Leon thwarted a stellar 41 percent of attempted stolen bases last season, and while he rated as a somewhat below-average pitch framer, per Baseball Prospectus, he has a strong track record in that regard when looking at his minor league career as a whole. At the very least, he could be a sound defensive option that hits from both sides of the plate, and he’s controllable through 2020. Certainly, there’s value in Leon, the question for Dombrowski & Co. is simply how much of his seemingly out-of-the-blue offensive gains in 2016 are sustainable.

Swihart figures to battle with Vazquez to see who will back up Leon to open the season, but if Leon sputters then either of the two promising young understudies could eventually find himself in a more prominent role with the Sox in 2017. Swihart does have a minor league option remaining, so he can be sent down without being exposed to waivers if the Sox wish to get him some more work both behind and at the plate in the wake of his truncated 2016 campaign.

As recently as the 2014-15 offseason, Swihart rated as the game’s No. 17 overall prospect, per Baseball America, who praised him as a potential two-way force behind the dish. Swihart didn’t begin switch-hitting or catching until he was about halfway through high school, and BA’s scouting report noted that the lack of lifetime experience in both regards always created the potential for some growing pains as he got to the upper levels of the minors and into the Major Leagues. “There’s a chance that his aggressive tendencies will be exploited by advanced pitching, which could result in a challenging transition to the big leagues after a lengthy apprenticeship in Pawtucket in 2015,” BA wrote at the time. But Swihart’s overall package of tools and athleticism undoubtedly remain appealing to both the Red Sox and to other organizations. It’s understandable, then, that Dombrowski and his staff aren’t exactly keen on trading him at all, let alone when his value is at a low point.

Vazquez, meanwhile, never generated the same level of prospect fanfare that Swihart did. However, he’s long been touted as one of the best defensive catchers in all of Minor League Baseball, and his superlative glovework gives him a high floor. He’s thrown out 44 percent of attempted base thieves at the Major League level and a similarly impressive 38 percent caught-stealing rate over the life of his minor league career. Vazquez has drawn consistently excellent framing marks throughout his minor league career and is a .273/.339/.379 hitter in 109 Triple-A games. He missed the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery, but the procedure didn’t seem to have an adverse affect on his throwing in 2016, as he caught 19 of 47 runners between the Majors and Triple-A (40.4 percent).

BA’s most recent scouting report on Vazquez cites “sneaky” pop that could yield an annual home-run total in the low double digits, and he did hit 18 homers at Class-A back in 2011, though that’s the lone pro season in which he’s demonstrated significant power, and it’s quite a ways in the rear-view mirror at this point. Still, given his defensive ceiling, Vazquez doesn’t need to be a star at the plate to be a starter in the Majors.

To somewhat crudely sum things up, Leon has had the most success in the Majors, while Swihart has the highest offensive ceiling of the bunch and Vazquez has the best defensive skill-set. The Red Sox will devote countless hours of evaluation to answering this question (and likely have already been doing so for the past year), but let’s see what MLBTR readership thinks on the matter (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Who’s On First For The 2017 Rockies?

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The Rockies surprised most everyone when they signed Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70MM contract. But eyebrows really shot up when the team said that it intends to utilize the shortstop-turned-center fielder at yet another new position: first base.

While there’s little reason to suspect that Desmond isn’t capable of handling the position defensively, it’s a bit of an odd fit. Desmond has settled in as a solid-but-not-great hitter who contributes quite a bit on the bases, making for an offensive profile that isn’t substantially better than a variety of other players who are presumably available for much less money. His real value lies in the fact that he can do those things while also playing premium defensive positions.

It’s debatable just how good of an outfielder Desmond will be going forward, as his initially strong metrics slipped over the course of the 2016 season. He could probably still contribute all over the infield, too, as he retains the athleticism and arm strength that made him a quality shortstop in the not-so-distant past. (The miscues, alas, probably mean he won’t again play short unless a mid-season need arises.) That versatility led some to suggest that Desmond could sign as a Ben Zobrist-type, everyday utility player.

To be fair, Colorado could plan to keep Desmond at first for just a single season, shifting him back to the outfield in 2018. And the team could value the fact that he’d represent an option elsewhere if there’s an injury. But free-agent contracts are signed primarily for the contributions that a player provides in the early years of a deal, and it’s arguable that Desmond will represent a fairly middling overall option at first, which is traditionally the realm of quality batsmen who simply can’t field other positions.

Of course, the Rockies also still possess a seeming glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders. Desmond makes a good bit of sense as a right-handed outfield piece to join that mix, with one pre-existing player being cashed in via trade. Both Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl can handle center; Carlos Gonzalez is still viewed as an everyday corner piece; and Gerardo Parra was signed to be a heavily-used fourth outfielder. All four hit from the left side, as do other potential MLB options such as Jordan Patterson and Raimel Tapia.

So, whatever the team’s true intentions, it remains plausible to imagine that a trade will open up a move of Desmond to a corner outfield spot, with the Rockies adding another player (or multiple players) to play at first. The free-agent market remains chock full of possibilities. Mark Trumbo and Mike Napoli could be signed as everyday options, though only the former has clearly been linked to Colorado. We’ve heard of at least some interest on the Rox’ behalf in Chris Carter, who might conceivably take the lion’s share of the work while being paired with a lefty bat. Brandon Moss, Logan Morrison, Pedro Alvarez, and Adam Lind could represent left-handed platoon options, with any number of righties joining them to face opposing southpaws. Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe are primarily third basemen, but could also represent fits. (Highly-regarded prospect Ryan McMahon could also be a factor at some point; the left-handed hitter only just turned 22, and didn’t exactly dominate at Double-A last year, but could conceivably be ready later in 2017.)

There are trade possibilities, too, whether or not that might come in a hypothetical swap involving one of the outfielders. Colorado has explored a deal for White Sox slugger Jose Abreu, who would represent a major acquisition. His teammate, Todd Frazier, is surely also on the blocks, and could conceivably be shifted across the diamond from third, though that’s pure speculation. It’s hard to see any other established regulars being made available at this stage; the Padres’ Wil Myers, for example, would probably only be dealt at a tremendous price. And other quality, controllable pieces likely wouldn’t be available unless the Rockies were willing to part with Dahl or a top prospect. But part-time options — most notably, perhaps, Matt Adams of the Cardinals — could well be had for a modest return.

Given the lay of the land, what’s your best bet as to how the Rockies end up filling their first-base job in 2017? (Answer options randomized; app users can weigh in here.)

Extension Faceoff: Odubel Herrera vs. Ender Inciarte

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The Phillies and Braves have been on remarkably similar paths this winter, seeking to boost near-term performance without jeopardizing their long-term rebuilding plans. Most notably, that has involved collecting veteran pieces (especially starters) on expensive, one-year deals.

While neither of the N.L. East rivals appear to be ready to add truly significant, long-term pieces via free agency, both were willing to make targeted investments to enhance their control over their own players this winter. Specifically, Philadelphia and Atlanta found common ground with their young center fielders, Odubel Herrera, who turns 25 on Thursday, and Ender Inciarte, who just turned 26.

It’s probably not entirely coincidental that the two pacts — struck within about a week of one another — were structured so similarly. Both players are in the 2+ service class, meaning they each already had four years of team control to go, though Inciarte had qualified as a Super Two. Instead, each player committed at least one would-be free-agent year to his team, in exchange for nearly identical guarantees: Herrera gets $30.5MM, Inciarte $30.525MM. The only meaningful difference came on the option front. The Phils can control Herrera for two more seasons (at $11.5MM and $12.5MM), while the Braves only get one additional year of control over Inciarte, but need pay him only $9MM to utilize it.

Of course, the two are hardly identical players. Herrera possesses a bigger bat, having produced at a 111 wRC+ rate over his first two MLB seasons, while Inciarte is more of a league-average hitter. Though both add value with their legs and gloves, the latter is the more accomplished in both regards. All things considered, both have established themselves as solidly above-average regulars and appear set to provide plenty of value to their respective employers over the duration of their new contracts.

Herrera arguably comes with greater upside, given the increasing power (and improved walk rate) he demonstrated last year. But you could also reasonably suggest that Inciarte’s superior value in other aspects of the game makes him a surer bet to remain a quality center fielder into his early thirties. So, just for fun, which player’s contract looks like the better bet? (Those using the Trade Rumors mobile app can weigh in here.)

Poll: Dubious December Decisions

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With an action-packed December on the verge of ending (happy holidays, MLBTR fans!), the most entertaining moments of Major League Baseball’s Hot Stove season have likely passed. As evidenced by what’s left of a free agent class that was uninspiring from the outset, the majority of this winter’s top available players have already found new homes. On the trade front, it’s possible we won’t see any more blockbusters, though this month’s Winter Meetings certainly brought a couple memorable ones that will hugely impact the involved franchises for years to come.

Of all the transactions that have taken place in December, there are a few which arguably stand out as head-scratchers. We’ll touch on a trio of those moves below and ask the readers to share their opinions via the poll and comments section:

Nationals send a prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton: Both sides made out well in this trade from my vantage point, but the Nationals have drawn criticism for surrendering two of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), and 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire Eaton. After making the deal at the Winter Meetings, Nationals president and general manager Mike Rizzo told predecessor Jim Bowden (now of ESPN and Sirius XM) that he was “getting barbecued.” Bowden is one of Rizzo’s most outspoken critics in this case, as he regards it as the “worst trade” he has ever seen (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post).

If you’re to believe wins above replacement, the well-rounded Eaton has been among the majors’ most valuable outfielders during his three full major league seasons, having combined for 12.8 fWAR and 15.3 rWAR in 1,933 plate appearances dating back to 2014. The 28-year-old also possesses one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts for an established player, which made it all the more reasonable for rebuilding Chicago to demand a ransom in return. Eaton is controllable for the next five seasons, including club options in 2020 and ’21, at a maximum value of $38MM. He and Bryce Harper should form two-thirds of an excellent outfield in D.C. for at least two seasons (Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 campaign), though the latter’s presence in right will force Eaton to center. Eaton’s coming off a season in which he was an elite defender in right with a major league-high 23.1 Ultimate Zone Rating and 22 Defensive Runs Saved (second). The metrics haven’t liked Eaton nearly as much in center (minus-21 UZR, minus-8 DRS in 3,115 career innings), which – along with the young pitchers the Nationals lost – has led to skepticism regarding Washington’s half of the trade.

Rockies spend $70MM over five years on Ian Desmond … to play first base? After receiving replacement-level production at first last year from a slew of players (mostly Mark Reynolds), Colorado entered the offseason in desperate need at the position. The Rockies also came into the winter having promised to post a franchise-record payroll in 2017, so the fact that they prioritized first and allocated big money to it wasn’t a shock. But, instead of adding one of the many first base types available, they weirdly signed Desmond. The career shortstop/outfielder will now occupy the least valuable defensive position on the field, and his bat won’t play as well there as it has at short or in center field. With Texas last season, the 31-year-old Desmond spent the vast majority of his time in center and logged a solid 106 wRC+ (league average for the position in 2016 was 96). If he’d have recorded the same production at first, where the league-average wRC+ was 108, he’d have been a much less appealing offensive cog. Nevertheless, if you’re to believe Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, Desmond will be their first baseman going forward. Considering both the money the Rockies gave Desmond and the first-round pick they lost to sign him (the eminently valuable 11th overall selection), it comes off as an odd choice.

Yankees reunite with Aroldis Chapman: It was hardly surprising that the Yankees brought back Chapman, whom they traded to the Cubs for star prospect Gleyber Torres at last summer’s deadline, or inked him to a record contract for a reliever. After all, MLBTR predicted he’d secure a five-year, $90MM accord from the Bombers, who ended up giving him an $86MM guarantee over a half-decade. The problem is twofold (and this ignores Chapman’s past domestic violence issues): 1. The Yankees are bent on getting under the luxury tax threshold soon (they’re on track to exceed it for a 15th straight year in 2017), and splurging on a reliever won’t help their cause. 2. The deal grants Chapman the ability to opt out after Year 3, which doesn’t seem to align with their window of contention. New York is amid a retooling phase and has been stockpiling youth as a result, so touted prospects like Torres, Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, among others, might not be ready to hit their respective strides for another few years. By then, Chapman could be in another uniform. In the meantime, and in fairness to the Yankees, the flame-throwing left-hander should continue serving as a dominant closer who helps them lock down late-game leads. But whether they’ll have enough of those leads to be a playoff team in the near future is in question.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Edwin Encarnacion End Up?

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With negotiations seemingly taking place in earnest for free-agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, let’s see where the MLBTR readership sees things heading. These are the reported suitors that are still trying to land him (in alphabetical order):

Astros: Houston long seemed like a clear possibility, but various other moves made a big strike for Encarnacion appear unlikely. But the ’Stros could still clear the way for a big bat, especially if the team ends up dealing other pieces to add a starter.

Athletics: A true dark horse, the A’s have always had the need for a big bat, but were a questionable fit in terms of budget. Just how high Oakland is willing to bid isn’t known, but it now seems clear that the team is firmly in the hunt.

Blue Jays: The incumbent Jays are said to be fading as a destination, but Encarnacion’s camp has long suggested its his preference to stay in Toronto, and it’s still possible that he could fit.

Indians: Fresh off a World Series appearance, Cleveland has a bit more budget flexibility than usual and could certainly stand to add a significant hitter to the middle of its order. We’ve heard varying suggestions of the organization’s willingness to spend, but the latest indication is that the Indians are pushing to land EE.

Rangers: Texas remains arguably the best fit on paper, even if its front office has repeatedly poured cold water on the likelihood of such a big signing for the past several weeks.

Other: Encarnacion’s agent, Paul Kinzer, says that there are at least six teams to have made three or four-year offers, noting that National League clubs have been involved as well. The Rockies and Cardinals appear to be the most sensible N.L. possibilities, with Colorado acknowledging that it’s at least monitoring the market and reports suggesting that St. Louis may take a look as well.

While at least five American League teams are now known to be in pursuit, it’s imaginable that others, too, have entered the bidding (or, perhaps, still will). The Mariners, Orioles, and Red Sox are among the organizations that could conceivably still be involved (though Boston has quite recently downplayed that possibility).

So, now’s the time to enter your bets: which team is most likely to land the best remaining free agent? (Order randomized; link for app users.)

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Mark Trumbo?

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Free agent first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo’s market may have taken a notable hit Saturday when the Orioles, with whom he spent last season, rescinded their offer to the slugger after negotiations stalled. Baltimore’s proposal was reportedly worth in the neighborhood of $52MM over four years and didn’t include a no-trade clause. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Trumbo is seeking upward of $70MM and full no-trade rights after launching a major league-leading 47 home runs in 2016. While no team has been willing to approach Trumbo’s demands – not to the media’s knowledge, anyway – there hasn’t been a shortage of clubs that have shown interest in him this offseason.

Mark Trumbo

Wherever Trumbo plays next season, it seems unlikely he’ll spend most of his time in the outfield again. Trumbo served as primarily a right fielder last season, but the results were uninspiring (minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating) and subtracted value from the .256/.316/.533 batting line he put together in 667 plate appearances. For his part, Trumbo realizes he’s better suited as a first baseman, where the former Angel, Diamondback and Mariner has played the plurality of his career. The Orioles already have an entrenched solution at first in Chris Davis and, if they are able to work out a deal with Trumbo, would want him back as mainly a designated hitter, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

If Trumbo does add the Orioles to his list of ex-employers, it seems the Rockies could end up as his next team. As they’re currently built, the Rockies don’t have room for a first baseman. Nevertheless, they’re still in on Trumbo even after signing Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70MM contract, per Kubatko. Inking Trumbo would enable the Rockies to send Desmond to the outfield, where he played in Texas last season and where he’d be more valuable, and perhaps pave the way for the team to trade an excess outfielder (Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez) for a starting pitcher. Having already given up their first-round pick in 2017 to sign Desmond, the Rockies would only have to surrender a second-rounder to bring the powerful Trumbo – who rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer – to the hitters’ paradise known as Coors Field.

Aside from the Orioles and Rockies, the Cardinals, Indians, Rangers and Mariners have all been connected to Trumbo in recent weeks. As is the case with the Rockies, the Cardinals wouldn’t have the option of deploying Trumbo at DH because they’re in the National League. They also wouldn’t lose a first-rounder to sign Trumbo, having already parted with their top selection in 2017 to pick up center fielder Dexter Fowler in free agency. The Cards aren’t exactly hard up for infielders, though, which is one reason they’re planning to shift Matt Carpenter to first on a full-time basis. If Trumbo enters the fray, Carpenter would presumably head back to the hot corner. That would turn $10MM third baseman Jhonny Peralta into either an expensive reserve or a trade chip and make first baseman Matt Adams all the more superfluous.

The Indians and Rangers each have obvious needs at first base/DH, though Texas is an unlikely landing spot if you’re to believe president and general manager Jon Daniels that he’d rather find a solution from within than splurge on a free agent. On the other hand, the AL champion Indians are fresh off a deep playoff run – one that proved highly beneficial to their financial situation – and could perhaps turn to Trumbo as a replacement for free agent Mike Napoli and a presumably less expensive (and less effective) alternative to Edwin Encarnacion.

Like Cleveland and Texas, Seattle would have to sacrifice a first-rounder to sign Trumbo. GM Jerry Dipoto suggested last month that he was content with his club’s cast of position players, but he quickly reversed course by entering talks with Trumbo’s camp and placing outfielder Seth Smith on the block. Aside from Nelson Cruz, who’s clearly more cut out to DH, Smith is the Mariners’ most established corner outfield bat. Dealing him would leave the M’s with only unproven options in Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia. Trumbo could factor in as both a corner outfielder (again, not ideal) or a first basemen, then, as the Mariners are set to rely on a tandem of Dan Vogelbach and Danny Valencia at the latter spot. Of course, not only would signing with the Mariners bring about Trumbo’s second stint in Seattle, but it would reunite him with Dipoto. Notably, Dipoto traded Trumbo away when he was the Angels’ GM in 2013.

While reports suggest Trumbo will join one of the aforementioned clubs sometime in the coming months, there’s also the possibility of a mystery team swooping in and landing him. Is there an unknown suitor out there that you think is going to sign Trumbo, or will one of the franchises listed above ultimately add him to its lineup?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Big Winter Meetings Signing Was The Best?

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The Winter Meetings saw a pair of high-profile trades, but also four free agent signings in excess of $60MM. Of the four teams to open their checkbooks, which made the best move?

Aroldis Chapman, five years, $86MM, Yankees. The Yankees brought back their former closer to rejoin Dellin Betances to form perhaps the best setup/closer tandems in baseball. There’s no questioning Chapman’s dominance, and a lefty with three-digit heat and a 15.5 K/9 is a unique asset indeed. But the Yankees also gave Chapman an opt-out after three years, one that presumably won’t require him to forgo his $11MM signing bonus. And they gave him a no-trade clause through the first three seasons as well, plus a limited no-trade through the last two. As Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues pointed out after the deal, it’s possible the opt-out will arrive just as the Yankees have assembled their best team in years. Then there’s also Chapman’s troubling personal history.

Dexter Fowler, five years, $82.5MM, Cardinals. The Cardinals filled their center field vacancy with Fowler, who batted .276/.393/.447 last season with the Cubs. In so doing, the Cardinals also avoided a trade market that’s been ugly for buyers, as the Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton perhaps demonstrated. The Cards are buying Fowler’s age-31 through -35 seasons, years in which an athletic player might well remain productive. They did give up the 19th overall pick in the draft with the signing, though, and even the Cardinals have characterized the dollar figure required to land Fowler as “over the top.”

Ian Desmond, five years, $70MM, Rockies. In what was surely the most surprising of the four signings, the Rockies landed a veteran leader who reinvented himself as an outfielder in an excellent comeback season in Texas. Desmond’s defensive flexibility will give the Rockies options as they build their team for the years ahead, and his 20-homer offense should benefit from Coors Field. The Rockies did, however, give up the first protected pick of the draft — No. 11 overall — to make the signing, costing the team eight-figure value not already included in the contract. And the team didn’t look like a contender in 2016 and might or might not be one in 2017, raising questions about whether now was the right time for them to pursue this kind of veteran talent.

Mark Melancon, four years, $62MM, Giants. The Giants were expected to pursue a closer, and they dodged higher-dollar targets like Chapman or Kenley Jansen (and the loss of a draft pick Jansen would require) to sign the 31-year-old Melancon. Melancon’s results in the last four seasons are indisputably terrific — the highest ERA he’s had in that time has been 2.23. He also has terrific control (with a 1.5 BB/9 last season) and routinely posts great ground-ball numbers (54.2% last year). He doesn’t have a typical profile for a dominant closer, however, with only modest velocity (91.8 MPH average fastball velocity last year, down about a mile from 2013) and a strikeout rate that’s only a bit more than half of Chapman’s. Long-term reliever contracts have historically been dicey propositions, and it remains to be seen if Melancon can dodge the trends. Melancon’s deal also contains considerable value not included in the $62MM total in the form of a no-trade clause and an opt-out after the first two years.

What do you think? Which team’s new contract is the best of the four?

Poll: Will Blue Jays Re-Sign Edwin Encarnacion?

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When the Blue Jays signed designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM contract last week, it appeared free agent Edwin Encarnacion’s illustrious tenure with the franchise was all but over. Encarnacion is coming off back-to-back campaigns in which he spent more time at DH than first base, after all, and the soon-to-be 34-year-old will likely need to continue as a bat-first option as he keeps aging.

[RELATED: Encarnacion’s Free Agent Profile]

Although having two expensive DH types on a roster isn’t ideal, the Blue Jays are nonetheless interested in re-signing Encarnacion, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this week. General manager Ross Atkins indicated after signing Morales that he could see a “good deal” of time in the field, which has been a rare occurrence over the past couple seasons, and that would seem to open the door to the possibility of him and Encarnacion coexisting.

Edwin Encarnacion

If necessary, the Blue Jays appear prepared to adjust to having Morales and Encarnacion divvy up time between DH and first, but it’ll obviously be a moot point if they’re unable to re-sign the latter. Before Toronto locked up Morales, it made a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $80MM to Encarnacion, who unsurprisingly rejected it.  As arguably the premier hitter on the open market, Encarnacion seems like a shoo-in to exceed that dollar figure. MLBTR projects a $92MM deal for Encarnacion, though an accord worth upward of $100MM doesn’t seem out of the question with the the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Astros and some National League teams reportedly chasing him.

Encarnacion has been a spectacular hitter since his 2012 breakout, having slashed .272/.367/.544 in 3,133 plate appearances. He also ranks second in the majors in home runs (193) and third in ISO (.273) over that five-year span, and has further impressed with a 12.5 percent walk rate against a 15.1 percent strikeout mark. Encarnacion is now coming off a year in which he hit a career-high-tying 42 homers and appeared in a personal-best 160 regular-season games, but his still-excellent .263/.357/.529 slash stands as his least productive line during his half-decade run as an elite offensive weapon.

Despite his tremendous output over the past several seasons, the fact that Encarnacion’s an aging, one-dimensional player could significantly weaken his value in the coming years and make his deal an albatross down the line, as both Dave Cameron and Craig Edwards of FanGraphs wrote earlier this month. The Blue Jays’ front office is likely mindful of the risks that would accompany re-signing Encarnacion, though losing him and replacing him with the likes of Morales and first baseman Justin Smoak (and perhaps an outside acquisition) would probably damage the team’s short-term chances on the heels of back-to-back playoff seasons.

With Encarnacion having rejected a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, they’ll receive a first-round pick if he signs elsewhere, so they’re in position to walk away with a potentially useful long-term asset if the slugger departs. The question is: Will he leave Toronto?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Team Won The Jean Segura / Taijuan Walker Trade?

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On Wednesday, the Diamondbacks and Mariners pulled off a big five-player deal involving shortstop Jean Segura and starting pitcher Taijuan Walker. We already reviewed the trade here and here, and collected a pair of reactions to the deal here. This time, though, we want to know what you think. Based on what we know right now, which team won the trade?

The case for the Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks received four years of control for Walker and five for Ketel Marte, a young shortstop who struggled last season but held his own in the big leagues in 2015 as a 21-year-old. Segura, in contrast, only has two years of control remaining (although the other two players they gave up, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis, both have six).

Segura batted .319/.368/.499 in a spectacular 2016 campaign, but struggled to stay above replacement level in either of the two previous seasons, and had a .353 batting average on balls in play in 2016 that was out of step with his career norms. At least so far, 2016 looks like Segura’s career year, and the Diamondbacks’ decision to deal him looks like selling high. The Diamondbacks didn’t look good enough to make the playoffs in 2017, so they did well to get younger and acquire more years of team control in exchange for a player who likely wouldn’t have been with them by 2019 anyway.

Walker once rated as one of baseball’s best prospects, and while he hasn’t lived up to that billing so far, he’s still just 24, and his 2016 numbers (4.22 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 93.9-MPH average fastball velocity) suggest he still has upside, meaning the Diamondbacks might be buying low on a starter who might still have front-of-the-rotation potential. That sort of player is hard to find, and it’s even harder than usual this year given the weak free agent market for pitching. If Walker can improve, or if Marte can reemerge as a capable regular, the Diamondbacks will likely end up very happy with their end of the deal.

The case for the Mariners: If Segura can maintain anything resembling his 2016 level of production, he and Robinson Cano could give Seattle one of baseball’s most productive middle infields over the next two seasons. Segura’s 20 home runs, .319 average and 33 stolen bases last season were all outstanding, leading to an excellent 5.0 fWAR. Numbers like those would give the Mariners a big jump on the AL West in a season in which they hope to contend.

Also, the righty-hitting Haniger could help the Mariners’ outfield immediately — the 25-year-old struggled somewhat in 2016 in his first chance against big-league pitching, but he dominated Triple-A and next year could serve as an effective complement to lefties Seth Smith and Ben Gamel in the corners. And while third piece Curtis didn’t pitch well in the Majors in 2016 and doesn’t profile as a future closer, his strong performances in the minors suggest he could eventually become a good left-handed relief option.

The Mariners clearly gave up two interesting young players, but ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider only) argues that Walker’s delivery changes, his lesser command and the heavy reliance on his fastball make him a less inspiring talent than he was as a prospect. As for Marte, his future in the big leagues is far from assured after a season in which he played poor defense and struck out more than four times as much as he walked.

So what do you think? Who fared better in this deal, the Diamondbacks or the Mariners?

Poll: Early Free Agent Starting Pitching Contracts

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This year’s free agent market has already provided a steady trickle of deals, with many involving short-term arrangements for starting pitching. Bigger contracts are yet to come, but those already handed out have committed fairly large sums, albeit on limited terms.

With many of these deals landing in a similar range, it’s interesting to compare. Here are the rotation pieces, who happen all to be right-handers, who have received major league pacts thus far (from smallest to largest in terms of total dollars):

Jesse Chavez, Angels, $5.75MM over one year (plus incentives): Chavez worked exclusively in a relief capacity last year, but he started quite a bit in 2014 and 2015 and Los Angeles views him as a part of their rotation for 2017. For a team in need of sturdy innings, the 33-year-old brings the promise of durability and palatable results at a reasonable price.

R.A. Dickey, Braves, $8MM over one year (plus 2018 club option): A similar calculus was at play with Dickey, whose knuckleball makes him a solid bet to eat up a lot of frames despite the fact that he’s already 42 years old. Though he’ll cost a bit more than Chavez, Dickey also arguably comes with greater upside, and the organization was able to take advantage of Atlanta’s proximity to the righty’s Nashville home to land him at a budget-friendly amount.

Andrew Cashner, Rangers, $10MM over one year: There’s much more variability, perhaps, baked into the price paid for Cashner, who only just turned 30 and still has a power arsenal at his disposal. The results haven’t been there in either of the last two years, and health questions persist, but Cashner is only two years removed from a high-quality campaign in which he looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm.

Bartolo Colon, Braves, $12.5MM over one year: Atlanta doubled down on aging starters, following up the Dickey signing with the even-older Colon, who’ll turn 44 before the season begins. If he was 15 years younger, Colon’s four-year platform — over which he averaged 195 frames of 3.59 ERA pitching — might well have made him the biggest earner on this winter’s market. Instead, it garnered him a strong payday but only a single-season commitment.

Charlie Morton, Astros, $14MM over two years: The only starter to score a multi-year promise, Morton only made four starts in 2016 — though that was due to a hamstring injury, not a more worrisome arm problem. He did show a fair bit of promise early last year (including a velocity bump), and carries a 3.96 ERA with strong groundball results (58.2%) over his last five campaigns, but Morton has only twice topped 25 starts and 150 innings in a single season.

Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies, $17.2MM over one year (accepted qualifying offer): Most had Hellickson penciled in to reject the QO and pursue a rather sizable, reasonably lengthy contract on the open market. After all, he’s yet to turn 30 and just turned in 189 frames of 3.71 ERA pitching. Instead, he opted for the sure thing, and the Phillies will pay a rather hefty single-season rate a pitcher who had endured his fair share of struggles prior to his quality 2016 season.

All of the teams listed above were looking to fill a rotation spot without mucking up their future balance sheets, and sought some blend of upside and dependability. So, the question for the MLBTR readership is a straightforward one: which of these contracts provides the best value to the signing organization?

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