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Should The Orioles Give Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?

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Forty-nine weeks ago, Matt Wieters became the second player to ever accept a qualifying offer from his team (following Colby Rasmus, who accepted a day prior). The move came as somewhat of a surprise at the time, as despite a lackluster season that was slowed by injuries, Wieters was poised to hit the market as the top available catcher. The former No. 5 overall pick and agent Scott Boras elected to instead take a one-year, $15.8MM offer, however, which afforded Wieters with the chance to further reestablish his health. While he succeeded in that effort to some extent, the 2016 season came with mixed results overall.

Matt Wieters

Wieters, 31 next May, tallied 464 plate appearances over the life of 124 games. While that’s a low total relative to his most durable years, the Orioles shielded Wieters early in the season from playing on consecutive days and were cautious in building him to the point where he would even catch on three consecutive days. Wieters did just so for the first time this past season in June, and by September he’d built up to the point that he at one point drew starts behind the plate on six consecutive days. In that regard, Wieters was able to demonstrate that he’s physically capable of handling a notable workload behind the plate — something he was unable to show in 2016 when he caught back-to-back games on just four occasions. Certainly that show of durability improves his free agent stock this winter.

On the other hand, Wieters’ overall production at the plate deteriorated this season. He saw his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all decrease along with his walk rate, and while he improved his strikeout rate from 23.8 percent to 18.3 percent, Wieters also nearly doubled his infield-fly rate. After popping up just four times in 282 PAs last year, Wieters popped out 17 times in this year’s 464 PAs — and those infield flies are every bit as detrimental as a strikeout, as they’re effectively a wasted at-bat and a guaranteed out. Park-adjusted metrics OPS+ and wRC+ agreed last season that Wieters’ bat was roughly league average (101 — or one percent above the league average), whereas this season he was markedly below the league average (88 wRC+, 87 OPS+ or 12 and 13 percent below average, respectively). He did belt 17 home runs, but he hit just 17 doubles and overall managed a pedestrian .243/.302/.409 batting line. That’s about league average for a catcher, but as noted before, it’s a far cry from average relative to the entire league.

On the defensive side of things, Wieters threw out 35 percent of opponents trying to steal against the Orioles’ pitching staff while he was behind the plate — an encouraging outcome for a catcher that had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and dealt with elbow tendinitis last year — but he once again drew poor marks in the eyes of pitch framing metrics. Baseball Prospectus rated him as below average in that regard for the fourth consecutive season, while StatCorner.com has been giving Wieters a below-average framing grade for five straight years.

Wieters has accepted a qualifying offer once before and would bring his two-year tab with the Orioles from 2016-17 to $33MM if he received and accepted another this year. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at, but if Boras and Wieters feel that the improved durability in 2016 will lead to a multi-year deal on the open market, then they’ll surely think he can earn more. And, the fact that Wilson Ramos suffered a horribly timed knee injury that will weigh down his free-agent stock only makes Wieters look more appealing relative to the remainder of the market. In that respect, it’s easy to see why the Orioles might feel comfortable making the offer.

The other side of the coin for the O’s, though, is that they opened the 2016 season with a franchise-record $147MM payroll and currently project to have an even larger $155MM payroll next season, as Jason Martinez lays out on the Orioles’ payroll page over at Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include Wieters at all, so penciling him in at an additional $17.2MM would cause the team’s projected payroll to balloon to $172.2MM next season before even addressing any of the other needs that face the Orioles’ roster — namely adding some rotation help and a corner outfielder. Considering the fact that Wieters has already surprised the team by accepting once before, Orioles GM Dan Duquette may not wish to make that kind of gamble a second time.

There’s an argument to be made for either side, so let’s open this one up to the public for debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Should The Brewers Tender Chris Carter?

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That the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter seems, at first, to be obvious. After being non-tendered by the Astros last offseason, Carter signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Milwaukee, then tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home-run crown, with a career-high 41. Now Carter has 4.159 years of service time, and the Brewers are faced with a decision. Surely it would be ridiculous for them to non-tender him, right?

Chris CarterWell, maybe not. MLBTR projects that Carter will get a very significant bump in salary next year, making $8.1MM through arbitration. While that’s not an astronomical figure, it is high for a one-dimensional player. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz points out, hitters’ salaries during their arbitration seasons are typically evaluated by batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and plate appearances. Carter has never hit well for average or stolen many bases, but he fared very well last season in the other three categories, also amassing 94 RBIs and 644 PAs. In arbitration, counting stats are what matter most, and Carter’s are impressive. In addition, the relative defensive value of a shortstop, say, as compared to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration as it would be on the free agent market. That factor also favors Carter, should the Brewers tender him.

As a result, the amount the Brewers will have to pay Carter through the arbitration process could approach or exceed his actual value. The arbitration process won’t penalize Carter much for his consistently mediocre on-base percentages (.321 this season, .314 career) or his below-average defense at first base (-5.2 UZR in 2016). Via FanGraphs, Carter’s 41-homer 2016 season was worth just 0.9 wins above replacement, largely due to those factors. Also via FanGraphs, the dollar value of that 0.9-WAR season was just $7.1MM, below the $8.1MM he’d likely receive next year through the arb process.

In fact, Carter has only produced more than 1 fWAR twice in his career, thanks to his lack of defensive value and his exorbitant strikeout totals, which prevent him from reaching base. He whiffed 206 times in 2016, and that wasn’t even his career high in that category. Carter was non-tendered last offseason after totaling 90 home runs in the three previous years, even though his salary would only have been a projected $5.6MM. After hitting the open market, he ultimately made less than half that. He would have been worth the $5.6MM in 2016, but neither the Astros nor the free agent market seemed exuberant about his value. That’s worth considering this time around.

It perhaps makes sense, then, that the Brewers appear to be at least considering non-tendering Carter. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that the team had a tough decision on its hands, although GM David Stearns had previously indicated Carter would return.

Then again, 41 home runs is 41 home runs, and perhaps we’re overthinking it. One would imagine that, at the very least, Carter would have value in the right context. Pedro Alvarez, who’s left-handed but has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Carter, got a $5.8MM deal last offseason but produced $9MM in value for the Orioles, generally playing DH. And another whiff-prone, defensively challenged Orioles slugger, Mark Trumbo, got $9.2MM but produced $17.3MM in value.

Also, the Brewers don’t have that much to lose by tendering Carter. They only have two players — Ryan Braun and Matt Garza — under contract for next season, and don’t project to have a high payroll (particularly since Braun is a trade candidate anyway). They can afford Carter. Also, Carter isn’t blocking anyone who would greatly benefit from his playing time. If Carter has another NL-leading home run season, he could perhaps land the Brewers a prospect or two at the trade deadline, or maybe even next offseason, since he’ll still have another year before free agency eligibility. (It should be noted, though, that his projected 2018 salary will be very high if he hits well next season.) There’s also the possibility that some power-starved team could overpay for Carter, given his unique skill set. The Brewers could even tender Carter and then attempt to deal him this winter, if there’s a market.

Perhaps, then, this is much ado about nothing. Tendering Carter seems like the obvious course of action, and perhaps that’s the one the Brewers will take. It’s a decision worthy of serious thought, however. What do you think?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Joey Gallo?

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In a piece today, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News calls upon the Rangers to commit to a path with young slugger Joey Gallo this winter. It’s a major question for Texas, with several possible strategies, so it seems worth posing the matter to MLBTR’s readers.

Though he’s still just 22 years of age, and continues to carry jaw-dropping power potential, Gallo wasn’t deemed worthy of a significant chance at major league action last year. He ultimately struck out 19 times and recorded just one hit in thirty MLB plate appearances scattered over 17 games. But Gallo continued to thrive at Triple-A, where he banged out 25 home runs and posted a .240/.367/.529 slash over 433 plate appearances.

The biggest question mark on Gallo remains the strikeouts. He walks quite a bit — 15.7% over his Triple-A season and 13.1% over his 153 MLB plate appearances — so it’s not as if he lacks for zone awareness. But Gallo has also struck out in just under half of his trips to the plate in his brief time in the majors while swinging through 22.5% of the pitches he offered at. (Khris Davis was worst among qualified MLB hitters last year with 16.6%.) And while Gallo trimmed his K rate a bit at the highest level of the minors in 2016, he faded after a promising start in that regard and still ended up going down on strikes 34.6% of the time.

While Texas can still option Gallo, the team faces the proposition of filling in two primary power spots in its lineup. Mitch Moreland is set to vacate first base via free agency, with Grant suggesting he won’t likely be pursued by the Rangers. And the team is also bidding adieu to DH candidate Carlos Beltran, who was acquired in the aftermath of Prince Fielder’s injury-induced retirement. With other positions also in need of solutions, Texas probably can’t afford to spend big on two bats to step into these openings.

Grant suggests that Texas could look to bring in free agent first baseman Mike Napoli for a third go with the organization. The right swinger is capable of playing first and would complement the left-handed-hitting Gallo. Alternatively, the club could look elsewhere, possibly attempting to re-sign Beltran — a switch-hitter who has logged all of five career innings at first base. Either way, that kind of addition would leave the team reliant upon Gallo, unless he is paired with another righty bat in some kind of DH platoon.

There are several other possible routes to consider, it seems. With a rather robust group of slugging types available this winter, the Rangers could add two lesser-priced bats and try to cash Gallo in to address another need. As Grant writes, though, his difficulties in turning the corner may make it hard for the team to cash Gallo in for a starting pitcher good enough to punt on his upside. He might also be used in some kind of platoon role — with players like Ryan Rua and Jurickson Profar representing possible mates. And it’s certainly possible that Gallo could be sent back to Triple-A, but that would represent his third consecutive year at that level and would add to the payroll and roster pressures.

While the Rangers will get to watch Gallo play in Venezuelan winter ball action, and can to some extent delay final decisions until the spring, the organization largely knows the state of play and will need to chart a course for the winter market. What’s the best course of action?

 

Free Agency Poll: Aroldis Chapman Or Kenley Jansen?

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This year’s NLCS between the Cubs and Dodgers is underway, and electrifying closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen figure to be among the series’ most important players. That was already the case for the two teams in the NLDS, when Chapman saved all three of the Cubs’ wins over the Giants – including two one-run affairs – and blew a save in Chicago’s only loss. Jansen had an ugly Game 2 showing against the Nationals, but he was otherwise tremendous, racking up saves in a pair of one-run contests before his all-important hold in a memorable Game 5. Jansen entered in the seventh inning Thursday and tossed 2 1/3 frames of 51-pitch, one-hit ball to preserve a 4-3 lead, which ace Clayton Kershaw closed out by retiring back-to-back hitters in the ninth.

One of Chapman or Jansen could very well secure the final out of this year’s World Series, after which the late-game aces are scheduled to become free agents. Given both their dominance and the ever-increasing importance of bullpens, Chapman and Jansen are in line to score the most valuable contracts ever awarded to relievers. The four-year, $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies in 2011 is the record, but that deal’s days at the top are numbered. Now it’s a matter of figuring out whether Chapman or Jansen will land the richer pact.

The two will play their age-29 seasons in 2017, and their results have been similarly excellent since they debuted in 2011. In 377 combined innings with the Reds, Yankees and Cubs, Chapman has a 2.08 ERA, 15.18 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 42.3 percent ground-ball rate, 12.8 infield pop-up percentage and 17.7 percent swinging strike mark. Across 408 2/3 frames with the Dodgers, Jansen has posted a 2.20 ERA, 13.92 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 with a worse ground-ball and swinging strike percentages than Chapman (33.4 and 15.7), though he does have the superior infield fly rate (13.8). In terms of their ability to finish games, Chapman has a nearly 90 percent success rate (182 saves in 203 chances), while Jansen has converted more than 88 percent of his save chances (189 of 214).

There aren’t notable differences in their age or career outputs, though Chapman and Jansen do diverge in certain areas. Chapman is a left-hander and Jansen a righty, for starters. With the ability to occasionally hit 105 mph on the radar gun, Chapman is the hardest thrower in baseball, but Jansen can offer a lethal 98 mph cutter. Also of importance, there are no off-the-field red flags with Jansen. That isn’t true in Chapman’s case

Chapman was on track last offseason to join Jansen in the Dodgers’ bullpen, but a trade between them and the Reds fell through amid domestic violence claims. Chapman was alleged to have struck his girlfriend and discharged a firearm while alone in his garage last October. Criminal charges were never filed, so Chapman did not face a trial. Nevertheless, the league did suspend him for the first month of the season, and it’s conceivable that such a serious incident could damage Chapman’s earning power as a free agent. On the other hand, contenders lined up to acquire Chapman from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline, and the Cubs eventually surrendered one of baseball’s top prospects – shortstop Gleyber Torres – in a package for him.

The fact that Chapman switched teams during the season means he’ll be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, which will only boost his stock. The Dodgers will surely tender a QO to Jansen, meaning another club that signs him would have to give up a first-round pick in addition to the enormous contract it awards him. With other high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Giants and Nationals perhaps set to accompany the big-spending Cubs and Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Chapman and Jansen, they’re clearly going to earn sizable raises during the offseason. But which one will fare better on the open market?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Jose Bautista A Qualifying Offer?

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Like the other seven major league teams currently in the postseason, the Blue Jays are trying to fight their way to a World Series title. But regardless of whether Toronto’s season ends with a championship, the club will have decisions to make on two franchise icons in the coming weeks. As soon-to-be free agents, designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and right fielder/DH Jose Bautista could depart Canada after the season. If the Blue Jays aren’t able to strike new deals with either, the team could receive a first-round pick as compensation for each if it tenders them one-year, $16.7MM qualifying offers (assuming the QO system remains in place).

Encarnacion is a shoo-in to land an offer, but Bautista’s case looks somewhat less certain than it did coming into the season. At that point, Bautista was fresh off six straight excellent campaigns dating back to his stunning breakout in 2010. Between then and 2015, Bautista combined to slash a superb .268/.390/.555 in 3,604 plate appearances. Along the way, he accounted for 32.5 fWAR – the majors’ fifth-highest total among position players – walked almost as much as he struck out (15.9 percent to 16.0 percent), hit 28 more home runs (227) than his nearest competitor, Miguel Cabrera, and posted a .287 ISO. That elite-level performance reportedly had Bautista in search of a massive contract last winter, but a decline in output has likely hurt his earning power since.

Bautista was on the disabled list twice during the regular season, and in the 116 games he did play, he wasn’t the all-world offensive threat he had been during the previous six years. By no means was Bautista’s production at the plate subpar, however, as he still batted a more-than-respectable .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers and a .217 ISO in 517 PAs. He also continued controlling the strike zone, albeit not as well as he did in prior seasons, with 87 walks against 103 strikeouts. With his below-average defense and baserunning factored in, Bautista was worth just 1.5 fWAR this year – his lowest total since 2008, when he was toiling in anonymity.

Bautista’s down season would be less alarming if he weren’t about to turn 36, which could scare off the Blue Jays or other teams when the time comes to hand him a lucrative multiyear contract. Not only that, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggested Sunday that Toronto might not issue Bautista a qualifying offer because of fear that he could accept it. In response, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk argued that, given Bautista’s track record, the Jays would welcome him back for 2017 at a $16.7MM price tag. He also pointed out that Bautista is in the midst of another quality playoff showing, having already smashed three homers this postseason for a club that could advance to its second straight ALCS tonight.

I’m in the same camp as Mark regarding Bautista, but what do you think?

Poll: Should MLB Change September Roster Expansion Rules?

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Earlier this week, former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs penned a guest piece for MLBTR in which he offered a former player’s take on the September expansion of MLB active rosters from 25 to 40. Spilborghs’ opinion was a nuanced one, but he noted that most coaches and players intensely dislike roster expansion, noting that it slows the pace of games and prevents MLB role players from getting playing time.

Roster expansion rules have come in for criticism with beat writers recently as well, due in part to the long game times and frequent pitching changes that now seem so characteristic of late-season baseball. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, for example, described a recent Phillies/Mets series as “a perverted type of baseball,” noting that one game took nearly four hours and featured 38 players, including two relievers who had pitched not at all, or close to not at all, in the previous two weeks. Those sorts of figures are, unfortunately, quite common in September, as contenders and non-contenders alike attempt to outmaneuver one another with seemingly limitless situational matchups.

“Let’s put it this way: That’s the thing about September,” said Phillies manager Pete Mackanin, via Gelb. “They have a lefty for every righty I bring in and vice versa. That’s what makes it so difficult. There’s no moves you can make that can’t be countered. So, what are you going to do?”

Gelb notes that September roster expansion could be part of this winter’s round of CBA negotiations. One possible solution would be a rule that allows teams to expand their active rosters in September, as they do now, but to declare a 25-man roster for each game. Such a rule might somewhat limit substitutions and pitching changes, thereby reducing game times, although it would do little to address Spilborghs’ concern about veteran role players losing out on playing time.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, for his part, agrees that roster expansion rules should be reformed. “I’m not looking to take away service time or anything like that, but I do think it would make sense to get to a situation where we played out September games closer to the rules that we play with the rest of the year,” he says. “I don’t think 18 pitchers in a game is a good thing.”

Of course, the benefits of expanded rosters are almost as easy to see as the drawbacks. Young players, particularly those on non-contending teams, can get their first tastes of big-league action, while managers and executives are more easily able to watch their young players against top competition. Also, the sheer number of bodies available helps teams get to the end of a lengthy 162-game season, by which point many established players are struggling with nagging injuries.

So what should MLB do about roster expansion? We’ll begin with a simple poll question about whether the rules should change. If you have a suggestion for how the rules should change, share it in the comments.

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Andrew McCutchen?

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MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth just broke down the Pirates’ upcoming offseason, labeling as the team’s “key topic” the question whether to seriously entertain trade talks on long-time star center fielder Andrew McCutchen. It’s a tough call for a team that disappointed in 2016 but still hopes to contend next year. While an answer is obviously dependent in no small part upon the level of demand on the market, it seems worth posing now to the MLBTR readership.

As Charlie explained, McCutchen’s middling season did end well, with a .284/.381/.471 batting line from the start of August. And while he’s no longer particularly youthful, he’ll only be entering his age-30 season with a track record as one of the game’s most productive all-around players.

Even if teams buy into the idea that Cutch’s true talent level at the plate remains rather high, despite his rough results for most of the year, the question remains what they’ll think of his glovework in center. Metrics have never loved him up the middle, but took a particularly dim view of his work in 2016. McCutchen graded out at -22.5 runs per UZR and racked up -28 Defensive Runs Saved. Both were league-low marks among qualifying players.

Beyond the on-field matters, McCutchen is a unique player. He has been the face of the franchise as it has emerged from a long period of misery, and remains affordable despite his long run of excellence. His extension calls for a $14MM salary next year and includes a $14.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2018. And it’s obviously a relative low point at which to deal.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh has several needs and already signaled some payroll concerns in giving up prospects to move the remaining contract of Francisco Liriano at the deadline. With other holes to plug, as Charlie documents in the above-linked piece, there’s an argument to be made that now’s the time to re-allocate the salary while getting some assets back. Plus, the club has center field options on hand in Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco along with an outfield replacement available in highly-rated youngster Austin Meadows — though a .214/.297/.460 batting line over his first 147 Triple-A plate appearances suggests there’s some polishing left.

There’s a lot to ponder here, and the Bucs have some time to think about it while getting a read on the market. But as things stand, what do you think Pittsburgh ought to do?

Poll: Should The Mets Pick Up Jay Bruce’s Option?

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It sounds as if the Mets are set to pay Jay Bruce $13MM club option rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him back onto the open market. Certainly, that has long been the expectation since the team acquired him by shipping youngsters Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell to the Reds at the trade deadline, with some suggesting that the addition was partially seen internally as a hedge against the departure of Yoenis Cespedes this winter.

Still, there are reasons to think that New York could have second thoughts on paying that sum for Bruce’s age-30 campaign. Even after a hot streak to end the year, Bruce wrapped up his 50 games in New York with a meager .219/.294/.391 batting line and eight home runs.

Though he hasn’t been consistent from year-to-year over his career, and some regression might have been expected, that’s a far sight shy of the .265/.316/.559 slash and 25 long balls that Bruce produced in 402 plate appearances this year in Cincinnati. As August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs explained recently, there are some worrying signs embedded in the late-year struggles, connected to Bruce’s mediocre and injury-limited prior two campaigns.

On the other hand, the Mets already paid the acquisition cost and penciled Bruce’s 2017 salary onto the books for a reason. Their scouts obviously liked what they saw in a player who doesn’t fit New York’s typical, high-OBP focus. (And that has worked out just fine so far with Cespedes.) Between 2010-13, Bruce racked up 121 home runs with a 121 OPS+ in more than 2,500 Major League plate appearances, so the talent is there.

And then there’s the question of defense, which was the biggest knock on Bruce’s value. Defensive metrics hated his glove of late in Cinci, even though some suggested that it wasn’t nearly as bad as the numbers suggested. Though it’s quite a small sample, Bruce’s 351 2/3 innings with the Mets were much more promising. He recorded 2 Defensive Runs Saved and 3.6 runs by measure of UZR during that span — quite strong marks.

Finally, there’s the matter of how well Bruce fits onto the Mets’ 2017 roster (depth chart). New York, of course, already has Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto as left-handed corner bats in the outfield, and the team hopes to retain Cespedes, even if that may be a long shot. While Granderson is still capable of playing center field, he’s best-suited for an outfield corner. Also in the mix will be Juan Lagares, who should be fully recovered from the thumb injury that sidelined him for most of the 2016 season’s second half.

Suffice it to say, there are numerous factors that need to be considered when answering what, on the surface, appears to be a fairly simple question. Let’s open this one up for discussion (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The entire season revolves around this one question.  Now that the 2016 postseason field is set, all that remains is seeing which of the 10 remaining clubs will be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Toronto hosts Baltimore in the AL Wild Card game on Tuesday, with the winner going on to face Texas.  Cleveland holds home field advantage over Boston in the other ALDS matchup.  Over in the NL, New York hosts San Francisco in the Wild Card game on Wednesday, and a date with league-leading Chicago awaits the victor.  Washington will host Los Angeles in Game 1 of their NLDS series on Friday.

Will the Cubs break their curse and capture their first World Series since 1908?  Or, perhaps the second-longest Series drought in baseball could instead end if the Indians continue Cleveland’s sudden run of sports success.  Could the Rangers (56 years in existence) or Nationals (48 years) finally win the first championship in the history of their franchises?  Can the Mets continue to thrive amidst a swath of injuries and make it back to the Fall Classic for the second straight year?  Do the Blue Jays have more bat-flipping postseason heroics in store for 2016?  No AL team has won more games over the last five years than the Orioles, but can they finally get that elusive postseason breakthrough?  Could the Dodgers or Red Sox celebrate their respective franchise icons (Vin Scully and David Ortiz) by sending them into retirement on the high note of another championship?  Or, are all these questions moot since it’s an #EvenYear and thus the Giants are due for another title?

MLBTR readers, who do you think will win it all?  (link for app users)

Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Michael Saunders A Qualifying Offer?

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Back on August 16, I posted a forecast of which free agents could receive qualifying offers from their teams this offseason.  Michael Saunders was listed as one of my “easy calls” to receive the one-year, $16.7MM contract, with one important caveat.  Saunders, at that point, had been in a month-long slump, so I noted that the Blue Jays could re-consider issuing Saunders a QO if his slump continued, given his lack of track record as an upper-tier hitter.

Well, fast-forward six weeks and Saunders’ bat has yet to wake up.  In 27 games between August 16 and September 23, Saunders is hitting just .207/.286/.427 with four homers over 92 plate appearances.  In the second half altogether, Saunders has contributed a .179/.284/.375 slash line over 195 PA, though eight of his 24 homers on the season have come since the All-Star break.

So while Saunders has retained some of his pop (he has a respectable .196 isolated slugging mark in the second half) since the Midsummer Classic, the rest of his batting numbers have fallen off the table.  This has made Saunders a sub-replacement level player for the Jays, since if Saunders isn’t hitting, he can’t contribute much on the basepaths or as a corner outfielder.  An above-average baserunner early in his career according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric, Saunders has unsurprisingly been subpar in that category since tearing his meniscus during a freak Spring Training accident in 2015 and subsequently missing much of that season due to knee problems.  It’s fair to guess that the knee injury has also contributed to Saunders’ poor defense, as his minus-9 Defensive Runs Scored and -12.1 UZR/150 this season in the outfield is well below his pre-meniscus tear career standard as a decent left fielder and a very good right fielder.

As it pertains to Saunders’ free agent stock, teams will certainly think hard about offering a big multi-year deal to a player who may already be turning into a bat-only type as he enters his age-30 season, especially when his bat may not be that potent.  If Saunders and his representatives at Meister Sports Management feel that these question marks and the QO-attached draft pick compensation hanging over his free agency could limit his market, he could accept the Jays’ qualifying offer and aim for 2017 as that true breakout year where he is both healthy and consistently productive.

If the Blue Jays think there’s a chance Saunders accepts a QO, would they be comfortable offering it?  The Jays may be wary committing $16.7MM to a player with Saunders’ limitations.  There’s also the fact that Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are also free agents this winter, and both will certainly be issued qualifying offers.  Encarnacion will definitely reject his, while there’s a chance Bautista could accept given his disappointing and injury-plagued season.  If both signed elsewhere, the Jays would probably welcome Saunders accepting a QO just so they could retain one important bat for the lineup.  Encarnacion’s departure would also free up the designated hitter spot for Saunders and other veterans in the Blue Jays lineup.  If fatigue has been a factor in Saunders’ second-half slide, regular DH at-bats would help keep him fresher and perhaps more productive over all 162 games.

This all being said, let’s not forget just how tremendous Saunders was in the first half of 2016.  Only 13 players in baseball topped Saunders’ first-half wRC+ of 146, and the outfielder hit an impressive .298/.372/.551 with 16 homers over 344 PA.  Saunders had long been rumored to have middle-of-the-order bat potential, and it was all clicking for him in the first 3.5 months of the season.

Given that teams are increasingly preferring to be flexible with their DH spot rather than have one designated hitter, a team with holes at both DH and corner outfield would certainly consider Saunders to rotate between both positions.  As mentioned earlier, 2017 will be Saunders’ age-30 season, which gives him an age advantage over some of the other notable corner outfield/DH types on the market this offseason.  Teams may be more willing to surrender a draft pick for a player who could still be coming into his prime, so it’s quite possible that Saunders will find a nice contract elsewhere and the Jays can recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer.

Far from being an “easy call” anymore, Saunders now stands as one of the most intriguing QO cases of any free agent this winter, particularly given how his situation could influence how the Blue Jays approach re-signing Encarnacion and/or Bautista.  How do MLBTR readers feel?  (link for app users):

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