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Poll: Aroldis Chapman’s Opt-Out Clause

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Wednesday morning that Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will become one of the most notable names on the free-agent market in the offseason. Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on the five-year, $86MM contract he signed entering 2016, but a source told Rosenthal the left-hander is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and revisit the open market in a few months. Chapman subsequently denied the report, but the still-great fireballer does seem like a realistic candidate to outdo the remainder of his current contract in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes expects Chapman to opt out, having ranked the Cuban flamethrower sixth in his most recent list of potential free agents.

There may be an argument for Chapman to stay put, though, if you consider the less-than-ideal trip to free agency fellow longtime standout closer Craig Kimbrel took this past season. Kimbrel, thanks in part to a qualifying offer, went until early June without a contract before finally signing with the Cubs. But Kimbrel showed real signs of decline in 2018, and despite that, the 31-year-old still signed a three-year, $43MM contract worth a substantial amount more than what’s left on Chapman’s pact.

Chapman, who will turn 32 next February, remains a game-ending force. The former Red and Cub has lost a bit of velocity this season, but he’s still throwing near 100 mph. He’s also the owner of a 2.45 ERA/2.09 FIP with 13.01 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, a 45.8 percent groundball rate and 25 saves in 29 chances across 36 2/3 innings this year. Neither lefties nor righties have done much to solve Chapman, who has yielded a .257 weighted on-base average/.263 expected wOBA in 2019.

Not only has Chapman thrived again this year, but no other reliever would offer a better track record than him in free agency. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen could opt out of the two years and $38MM left on his contract, but he has been more vulnerable than usual this season. Giants closer and impending free agent Will Smith has been tremendous this year, though he can’t match Chapman’s long-term excellence. Meanwhile, Chapman’s teammate Dellin Betances has enjoyed a phenomenal career as a setup man, yet multiple injuries have prevented him from pitching at all this season. The rest of the impending free-agent class doesn’t approach Chapman.

If there’s one factor that could significantly tamp down Chapman’s earning power, it’s a qualifying offer. Teams didn’t want to cough up a massive amount of money and surrender a draft pick for Kimbrel or starter Dallas Keuchel, two stars who sat without a job until last month. Chapman would also have a QO and draft compensation hanging over his head, as there’s no chance the Yankees would allow him to leave without getting something in return. But it’s improbable that would be enough to stop Chapman from giving free agency another whirl during the upcoming winter. What do you expect him to do?

(Poll link for app users)

Do you expect Aroldis Chapman to opt out after the season?
Yes 56.81% (4,025 votes)
No 43.19% (3,060 votes)
Total Votes: 7,085

Poll: The Reds’ Deadline Approach

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Take one look at the Reds’ record – 43-48 – and it’s difficult to envision them as a team in position to buy prior to the July 31 trade deadline. On the other hand, the Reds certainly aren’t out of the playoff race, trailing the NL Central-leading Cubs by 5 1/2 games and sitting 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Cincinnati is also in possession of the NL’s fifth-best run differential (plus-33) and a more-than-respectable 49-42 Pythagorean record.

Despite the team’s .473 winning percentage and last-place status in its division, is a sleeping giant about to awaken in Cincy? That seems to be the hope for president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall, who have suggested over the past week that the Reds are more inclined to buy than sell before the month is out. Whether they should is another matter. The Reds will have to leapfrog four teams and overcome a significant deficit to jump the Cubs if they’re going to win their division this year. It seems unrealistic. They obviously have a better chance to secure a wild-card berth, but that would be a daunting task with eight teams ahead of them for the NL’s fifth and final playoff position.

Fortunately for the Reds’ front office, the club’s schedule during the two weeks leading up to the deadline could provide more clarity on whether to buy, sell or stand pat. The Reds are amid a three-game set against the Cubs, whom they beat Monday, and then have series against four other teams with better records (the Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Pirates). Their slate’s similarly imposing after the deadline, with the Braves, Angels, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres and Pirates set to serve as almost all of the Reds’ August opponents. Furthermore, the Marlins, Mariners and Mets are the only teams left on the Reds’ schedule through year’s end that aren’t legitimately in playoff contention at the moment.

The lack of tomato cans remaining on the Reds’ schedule may make selling over the next two weeks easier, as could the short-term pieces on their roster who could bring something back in trades. Outfielder Yasiel Puig – who started the year poorly but has been on a blistering pace since the beginning of June – as well as starters Tanner Roark and Anthony DeSclafani, second baseman Scooter Gennett, utilityman Derek Dietrich, shortstop Jose Iglesias, and relievers David Hernandez and Jared Hughes are all potential trade chips who will be free agents either after this season or the 2020 campaign. With the possible exception of Puig, no one in that group seems to stand much of receiving qualifying offer from the Reds when his team control expires. As such, it could behoove the Reds to move as many of them as possible right now for as much as teams are willing to pay.

On the flip side, no member of that bunch is a premium short-term piece (again, with the possible exception of Puig). Therefore, maybe you’re of the mind they should keep what they have, if not add to it, in lieu of selling vets for minimal returns and actually take a run at a playoff berth. For a franchise that’s staring at its sixth consecutive season without playoff baseball, perhaps there’s something to be said for making an against-the-odds effort to contend. The Reds tried to up their chances over the winter when they acquired Puig, Roark and others, though the win-loss results surely haven’t gone to the team’s liking thus far. Nevertheless, they don’t seem ready to say die as the 2019 deadline approaches.

(Poll link for app users)

As of now, do you believe the Reds should be deadline buyers?
No 59.23% (3,221 votes)
Yes 40.77% (2,217 votes)
Total Votes: 5,438

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Braves Do With Ender Inciarte?

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The Braves are clicking on just about every cylinder at the moment, allowing the team to maintain a healthy advantage in the division even as the Nats have mounted a charge. While the Atlanta organization is no doubt preparing to make some pitching additions in the coming weeks, the position player mix seems mostly to be in fine working order.

Typically, a veteran returning from an injury makes for welcome news in advance of the trade deadline. But much of the Atlanta fan base seems to view the impending return of outfielder Ender Inciarte — who’ll be back as soon as Thursday — with something less like excitement and more like dread.

We’ve been through this topic before, but that was a month-and-a-half back. Some things have changed. Austin Riley looked at the time like a breakout star. But let’s check in on the youngster’s wRC+ by month: 186 (May), 96 (June), 32 (July). Needless to say, that’s not an optimal arc for a contending team. Switch-hitting utilityman Johan Camargo has perked up in the meantime, though he’s also the only position player other than Riley that is a conceivable candidate to be optioned down. Charlie Culberson and Matt Joyce occupy fairly limited roles, but has each been superb. Of course, Inciarate has also been in action of late on his rehab assignment. Let’s just say that his struggles from the early portion of the season have carried over. He has produced just seven singles and three walks in forty trips to the plate.

It’s possible to imagine quite a few possible roster permutations. There are arguments on every side of the discussion. Optioning Riley may or may not be good for his development, but it would mean taking one of the club’s highest-upside bats out of the MLB picture for at least a stretch. Sending Camargo down makes some sense on paper, but he’s an immensely useful player if he’s back to being an above-average hitter. It’s somewhat easier to imagine the club parting with Joyce than Culberson, but the 34-year-old Joyce carries a .296/.400/.494 slash with 14 walks against just 18 strikeouts. Inciarte could be jettisoned, or traded for whatever the team can get, but that’d mean selling quite low on a player who has been such a solid presence and still makes long-term roster sense. (Inciarte has more than five years of service time and therefore may not be optioned without his consent.)

There’s always the option of demoting or designating a reliever, but that’d likely only be a temporary measure, since the Braves are already carrying a four-man bench. Likewise, a temporary move involving one of the reserve players (optioning Camargo or finding a phantom injury list stint) would presumably only delay the inevitable decision. There’ll ultimately be a choice, even if it’s kicked down the road by a few weeks.

How do you think the Braves should handle the return of Inciarte? (Poll link for app users.)

What Should Braves Do With Ender Inciarte?
Designate and/or trade Ender Inciarte 51.47% (7,047 votes)
Option Austin Riley 18.48% (2,530 votes)
Designate and/or trade Matt Joyce 15.77% (2,159 votes)
Option Johan Camargo 10.83% (1,483 votes)
Designate and/or trade Charlie Culberson 3.45% (473 votes)
Total Votes: 13,692

Is It Time For The Mets To Trade Noah Syndergaard?

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Judging solely by Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard’s decline in performance this year, this summer doesn’t look like the time to trade the 26-year-old. But going by Syndergaard’s pre-2019 numbers and the amount of club control he has remaining, Thor would warrant a haul leading up to the trade deadline. For almost the entire season thus far, there haven’t been rumblings on MLBTR’s pages about a possible Syndergaard swap. The rumor mill has begun picking up since Tuesday, however.

With the deadline exactly three weeks away, the Brewers, Astros and Padres are among those who have demonstrated interest in Syndergaard. It’s probably fair to say even more teams will eye Syndergaard, if they haven’t already, though the Mets don’t seem as if they’re shopping him aggressively.

Little has gone right this year for New York, which has stumbled to a record (40-50) that betters only the Marlins’ mark in the National League. Contention’s highly unlikely for this year’s Mets, but unlike with impending free-agent starter Zack Wheeler, they shouldn’t necessarily feel urgency to part with Syndergaard this summer.

Syndergaard, who’s making an appealing $6MM salary, is eligible for arbitration two more times after 2019. Therefore, the Mets could keep him in hopes they and he bounce back during that two-year span. Alternatively, the club could retain Syndergaard through this season, see if he returns to his typical form in the second half and then solicit offers during the winter. At that point, teams unable to win what should be a hotly contested derby for free agency’s top starter, Gerrit Cole, might view Syndergaard as an enticing consolation prize.

On a per-inning basis, Syndergaard has been a Cole-caliber producer since he broke into the league. Between his 2015 debut and last year, Syndergaard parlayed his high-90s heat into an ace-like 2.93 ERA/2.66 FIP with 9.95 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate over 518 innings. But injuries limited him at times, including during a 154 1/3-inning campaign in 2018, and they’ve reared their head again this year. Syndergaard missed time earlier in the season with a hamstring strain, though he returned after missing about two weeks. He has not, however, logged a quality start in any of his three outings since. Overall, Syndergaard has paled in comparison to his 2015-18 self, having notched a 4.68 ERA/3.98 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9, and a 46.7 percent grounder mark across 105 2/3 frames.

While Syndergaard’s continuing to throw hard, his aforementioned K/9, career-low chase rate, career-high contact rate and personal-worst swinging-strike percentage show he’s fooling fewer hitters than ever. On the other hand, Syndergaard’s still a Statcast darling whose 34-point spread between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.314/.280) suggest bad luck has played a part in his issues preventing runs. The fact that Syndergaard’s tasked with pitching in front of a dreadful defense also hasn’t done him any favors.

All things considered, the Mets are facing an interesting decision on Syndergaard as zero hour closes in on July 31. If the Mets were to make Syndergaard available by then, he’d perhaps end up as the most popular player on the block. What should they do?

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Mets do with Noah Syndergaard?
Listen to offers and consider moving him for a huge return 58.67% (3,787 votes)
Definitely trade him 26.60% (1,717 votes)
Now isn't the time to deal him 14.73% (951 votes)
Total Votes: 6,455

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Shopping Trevor Bauer

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked an interesting question Tuesday morning: Should the Mets entertain trade offers for ace Jacob deGrom? To this point, the majority of voters believe they should at least listen to other teams’ proposals for the 31-year-old right-hander. As great as deGrom is, he’s probably not going to help pitch the woebegone Mets into the playoffs this season.

On the other hand, Indians righty Trevor Bauer may aid in a playoff berth for his team yet again in 2019. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Monday that the Indians are “aggressive listeners” on Bauer as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. There’s wide-ranging interest in Bauer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Cleveland, which happens to be hosting Tuesday’s All-Star Game, went on a tear to end the season’s first half. Winners of six straight, the Indians are 50-38 – good for the majors’ seventh-highest winning percentage (.568) – and have suddenly made the AL Central race intriguing. For a large portion of the first half, it looked as if the Twins would skate to a division title. Now, though, the Indians sit a manageable 5 1/2 games behind them. The Tribe’s also 1 1/2 games up on the AL’s second wild-card spot and a half-game behind the Rays for the league’s No. 5 seed.

An appreciable amount of the Indians’ success can be attributed to the 28-year-old Bauer, which would make trading him in the next three weeks all the more surprising. No, Bauer hasn’t been the ace-caliber performer he was a year ago. Still, though, Bauer has recorded a 3.61 ERA (granted, with a less inspiring 4.10 FIP) and 10.16 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9 over a major league-leading 132 innings.

It’s hard to believe the Indians would be able to trade Bauer and better themselves for this year, especially in light of the other concerns in their rotation. The Tribe’s starting staff looked like one of the league’s best entering the season. Since then, however, Corey Kluber has struggled and missed a vast amount of the campaign because of a fractured forearm. Mike Clevinger has made just five starts, over which he has been a mixed bag, because of a back injury. Worst of all, the team’s still reeling from the awful news that the excellent Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t pitched since May 30, is battling leukemia.

The absences of Kluber and Carrasco have left Bauer, Clevinger and stellar young righty Shane Bieber as the lone truly dependable members of the Indians’ rotation. Fill-in Jefry Rodriguez has been on the injured list since June 1 with a strained shoulder, and rookie Zach Plesac has fallen off of late. Meantime, Adam Plutko has posted a below-average ERA (4.95) through 36 1/3 innings, and that outdoes even less shiny peripherals.

All of that said, Cleveland’s in an unenviable position with Bauer, whom it will probably lose soon even if it keeps him through the season. Bauer’s making a somewhat expensive $13MM and only controllable through 2020. If we’re to take his word for it, the offbeat Bauer will be trying to max out on one-year contracts every winter in free agency after that. Therefore, if the Indians weren’t in contention, now would clearly be the time for the Indians to flip Bauer. But the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are very much in the hunt right now, which could set the stage for an agonizing Bauer decision this month. What do you think they should do?

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Indians do with Trevor Bauer this month?
Listen to offers, but only deal him for a huge return 49.66% (3,913 votes)
Trade him for the best offer 35.10% (2,766 votes)
Keep him and try to win it all 15.24% (1,201 votes)
Total Votes: 7,880

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Should Mets Entertain Offers For Jacob deGrom?

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In an interesting examination, Joel Sherman of the New York Post makes the case that the Mets ought to take offers on ace Jacob deGrom. He doesn’t exactly advocate a swap — the club ought to move him only “if the return is so overwhelming that they can’t say no,” in Sherman’s estimation — but does suggest it’s a realistic possibility worth pursuing.

That’d be quite an about-face given that deGrom only just inked an extension with the New York organization over the offseason. It really doesn’t kick in until after the present season. Nominally a four-year, $120.5MM pact, the value of the extension was reduced significantly by deferrals.

That is a lot of coin for a pitcher who recently reached his 31st birthday, though deGrom is not just any hurler. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, but that’s due mostly to regression in the home run department and a few shifts in sequencing fortune. Through 110 innings, he carries a 3.27 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. All the skills remain evident: deGrom has actually boosted his average fastball velocity to over 97 mph and is maintaining a swinging-strike rate in range of 15%.

There are some obvious barriers to a deal, as Sherman notes, beginning with Mets ownership. Even if the Wilpons are willing to authorize a franchise-altering swap, deGrom would have his say given his full no-trade rights.

That doesn’t mean it isn’t fascinating to consider the possibilities. At the moment, this year’s trade market is led by decidedly less-valuable hurlers such as Madison Bumgarner (who hasn’t lived up to his storied past of late), Marcus Stroman (often excellent but not consistently dominant), and deGrom’s teammate Zack Wheeler (ditto). deGrom is unquestionably one of the game’s very best pitchers; controlling him for four years at big but not eye-watering money would hold plenty of appeal.

There’s certainly some sense in the notion that the Mets ought to be willing to hit the re-set button. The offseason moves of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen have not hit the mark thus far; neither did those of his predecessor Sandy Alderson in the winter prior. Keeping deGrom while dealing only rental pieces would presumably mean a third-straight offseason re-tooling effort on the heels of a disappointing season.

On the other hand, the Mets would find themselves in a funny spot without deGrom. They still owe big money to players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Jeurys Familia. They’ll be paying another arb raise to Noah Syndergaard, unless he’s also made available. (That would arguably make quite a bit of sense, whether or not deGrom is shopped; perhaps the underperforming Thor deserves his own poll.)

The situation obviously does not admit of straightforward solutions. How do you think the Mets should handle it? (Poll link for app users.)

What Should the Mets Do With Jacob deGrom This Summer?
Dangle him but only move him for a huge return. 52.98% (6,420 votes)
Don't even think about it! 23.73% (2,875 votes)
Trade him for the best offer they can get. 23.29% (2,822 votes)
Total Votes: 12,117

Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

(Poll link for app users)

Which NL team has been the biggest disappointment so far?
Mets 27.72% (4,894 votes)
Phillies 24.13% (4,260 votes)
Cardinals 20.19% (3,564 votes)
Cubs 17.10% (3,018 votes)
Brewers 6.45% (1,139 votes)
Rockies 3.03% (535 votes)
Other 1.37% (242 votes)
Total Votes: 17,652

Poll: Who’s Going To Play In The World Series?

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There’s a ton of baseball yet to be played, and the trade deadline is likely to result in some drastically-changed rosters.  But since we’re now at the All-Star break, the season’s unofficial halfway point, it seems as good a time as any to ask the readership about their picks for the Fall Classic.

We’ll break the questions down by American League and National League, and even this deep into the season, there aren’t that many teams who seem firmly out of the race.  The NL is particularly crowded, to the point that while the Giants seem like major postseason longshots and will likely be deadline sellers, they’re still only 5.5 games back of the wild card.  In the AL, the White Sox face longer odds to get into the playoffs (seven games back of the wild card, 12.5 games behind Minnesota in the Central), but they also have a respectable 42-44 record.

With apologies to the Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mariners, and Mets, they’ve all been left out of the polls.  (If any of these teams goes on a Miracle Braves type of run and ends up winning the pennant, I am fully aware that fans of this team will throw this post back in my face for the rest of time.)  That leaves a whopping 23 teams still technically in the mix, and while a lot would have to go right for some of these clubs to develop into true contenders, there’s always still a chance.

Who do you think will be representing their league in the World Series?  (For Trade Rumors app users, here are the links to the AL poll and the NL poll)

Who Will Win The AL Pennant?
Yankees 45.50% (8,654 votes)
Astros 27.69% (5,266 votes)
Twins 11.15% (2,120 votes)
Rays 3.81% (724 votes)
Red Sox 3.76% (715 votes)
Indians 2.67% (507 votes)
Athletics 1.85% (351 votes)
Angels 1.52% (290 votes)
White Sox 1.17% (222 votes)
Rangers 0.90% (172 votes)
Total Votes: 19,021
Who Will Win The NL Pennant?
Dodgers 56.43% (11,062 votes)
Braves 17.41% (3,413 votes)
Brewers 5.86% (1,148 votes)
Cubs 5.14% (1,007 votes)
Nationals 3.03% (594 votes)
Cardinals 2.38% (467 votes)
Phillies 2.16% (424 votes)
Pirates 2.00% (393 votes)
Padres 1.78% (349 votes)
Giants 1.51% (297 votes)
Reds 1.32% (259 votes)
Rockies 0.49% (96 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.48% (95 votes)
Total Votes: 19,604

Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?

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It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?

The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.

This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.

Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).

Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?

(Poll link for app users)

Which starter would you rather acquire?
Madison Bumgarner 60.83% (5,151 votes)
Zack Wheeler 39.17% (3,317 votes)
Total Votes: 8,468

MLBTR Poll: Will The Padres Trade Kirby Yates?

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We’ve seen signs that the Padres are pondering a move this summer involving Kirby Yates. At least, that’s how I interpret recent reports from the team’s beat writers on just how hesitant the team is to move a player who has arguably been the game’s best reliever to this point of the season.

Sure, the Friars are putting out word that it’d take an “overwhelming offer” or an “unforeseen haul” to part with Yates. This is roughly like putting up your house on Zillow’s “Make Me Move” listings, but requesting blind bids instead of posting a zany asking price. Yates is totally not available … unless …

Let’s just say the Padres are interested in seeing how interested their rivals are in making a deal.

This is a familiar strategy with regard to controllable closers. And it’s one that often, but doesn’t always, lead to a swap. It feels as if Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias have been trade candidates for years. Surely, the Pirates and Reds have fielded offers, both before and after inking those two relievers to extensions. They haven’t moved … yet. The Padres have intimate, recent experience with just this sort of thing, having held onto Brad Hand, then signed him to an extension, and then traded him. Likewise, the Yankees hemmed and hawed and finally dealt Andrew Miller (like Hand, to the Indians) only after securing an offer of “two twin firstborns.”

In this case, there are certainly some strong reasons to think the Pads will have interest in a deal. Yates is already 32 years of age. The club is two games under .500 and has already been buried in the NL West (along with the rest of the division) by the powerhouse Dodgers.

On the other hand, Yates is also still controllable for another season — one in which the San Diego team hopes to be fully competitive. Heck, Yates could even be an extension candidate in the mold of Hand.

It’s hard to imagine Yates will ever look better on paper. He has racked up 27 saves in 35 1/3 innings of 1.27 ERA pitching, with an exceptional combination of 14.3 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. He has allowed just 21 hits and one home run this year. He’s earning only $3MM and change for the present campaign.

Yates has quite a lot of trade value. He also holds no shortage of appeal to a Padres team that needs to be efficient with its spending after making some uncharacteristically massive free agent outlays.

How do you see this one turning out? (Poll link for app users.)

Will the Padres trade Kirby Yates?
No 57.91% (3,160 votes)
Yes 42.09% (2,297 votes)
Total Votes: 5,457
Show all

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