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MLBTR Poll: Pending Free Agent Extension Candidates

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It’s fairly typical to see several free-agents-to-be strike new contracts with their present organizations during Spring Training (or shortly thereafter). Last year, for instance, we saw Adrian Beltre (Rangers), Stephen Strasburg (Nationals), and Francisco Cervelli (Pirates) land long-term deals at the start of the 2016 season, reflecting negotiations that took place over the winter and, perhaps especially, during camp.

In some cases, the dealmaking can occur quite publicly, even if talks don’t result in an agreement. There were high-profile discussions last winter involving the Blue Jays and veteran sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. And who can forget the Jon Lester-Red Sox saga of 2014?

I’ve compiled a list of plausible extension candidates for consideration here. There are probably a few others, too, but this group seems to represent the bulk of the possibilities for deals keeping players off of the open market.

Veteran Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy of the Rangers and Yadier Molina of the Cardinals are in very different situations in their respective organizations. Lucroy came to Texas via trade last summer, while Molina is a St. Louis legend. But both appear to be solid extension candidates. The Rangers may look to find some added value in Lucroy, who has been one of the game’s best receivers and doesn’t have a clear replacement behind him. Meanwhile, the Cards will no doubt hope Carson Kelly proves ready to take Molina’s place, but seemingly prefer to keep the veteran around for at least another few years to pass the baton.

[Link for app users]

Core Royals Position Players

First baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, and center fielder Lorenzo Cain were all key parts of the Royals’ Cinderella story, and all three are looking to bounce back from disappointing 2016 seasons (due to a combination of injury and performance downturns). While some had expected Kansas City to engineer a ramp-down of its veteran obligations — the team did trade away Jarrod Dyson and Wade Davis — the organization already locked up Danny Duffy and seems intent on at least exploring deals with this trio. The focus thus far appears to have been on Hosmer, with the similarly youthful Moustakas perhaps also representing a more obvious target, though it’s possible to imagine any (albeit probably not all) signing on to stay.

[Link for app users]

Star Starters

There could be quite a lot of money spent on starting pitching next winter, at least so long as Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka make it through strong seasons and don’t ink deals before reaching free agency. (Tanaka can also opt into the remaining three years and $67MM on his deal, it should be noted, though he’ll undoubtedly give that up so long as he remains healthy and effective.)

There’s a case to be made that none will reach new contracts. It’s far from clear whether the Cubs will pay enough to get Arrieta enough to bite, though talks are planned. Darvish’s injury questions may cloud his candidacy, but he could follow Strasburg in a surprise accord. In some ways, Tanaka represents the best possibility, despite his own elbow issues. He’s just 28, and the team is already bearing some risk over his health due to the opt-out (which really functions as a sizable player option).

[Link for app users]

Additional Possibilities

There are a few other players who could be under consideration as well. Neil Walker and the Mets have engaged in talks already, though it seems those could be foundering. Likewise, the Rockies are reportedly interested in discussing a new contract with Carlos Gonzalez. It’s questionable whether that’s a wise course given the team’s robust array of left-handed-hitting outfielders and Gonzalez’s own injury-related downturn in recent years, but he’s a star player who could still hold appeal to the Colorado organization. And perhaps there’s also a chance that the Indians look at a contract for Carlos Santana, though the presence of Edwin Encarnacion seemingly makes that less likely.

[Link for app users]

Poll: Best Remaining Free Agent Starter?

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In recent days, we’ve seen Jason Hammel, Nathan Eovaldi, and now Travis Wood leave the board. But with camps opening around the league, there are still a few notable starters who don’t yet know where to report.

As ever, rotation depth is a key consideration for any organization. Contenders need to ensure they’ll be able to fill up innings with at-least competent pitching, while rebuilding clubs need to protect their younger arms (and also may look to capture some upside by turning a veteran into a trade chip).

Organizations that aren’t quite set in the starting pitching department will likely have some of these names at the tops of their lists. Which do you think is the best bet to turn in a strong 2017 campaign? (Presented in alphabetical order.)

  • Jorge De La Rosa — The 35-year-old lefty largely scuffled in 2016, but turned in a solid 4.35 ERA over his nine seasons in the game’s toughest pitching environment, Coors Field.
  • Doug Fister — The towering right-hander turned in 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball as recently as 2014, and showed he was healthy even as he struggled last year.
  • Mat Latos — Though he has been markedly disappointing in each of the past two seasons, Latos only just turned 29 and was a top-quality starter for the five preceding campaigns.
  • Colby Lewis — Sure, he’s 37 years of age and doesn’t generate many strikeouts, but Lewis did provide 19 starts of 3.71 ERA pitching in 2016.
  • Tim Lincecum — An attempted comeback last year fell flat, and it has been a long time since Lincecum flashed his former Cy Young form, but is it too late for the 32-year-old to settle in as a serviceable arm?
  • Jon Niese — Though his stint with the Pirates didn’t pan out, the now-30-year-old Niese was deemed a worthwhile bet by the pitching-savvy Bucs and was a solid performer for the better part of the prior eight years.
  • Jake Peavy — Another pitcher coming off of a poor season, the 35-year-old Peavy provided the Giants with 189 1/3 innings of sub-3.00 ERA work following his mid-2014 acquisition.
  • Jered Weaver — The days of competing for Cy Young awards are surely over, but if Weaver can recover even a bit of his lost velocity, perhaps he can salvage a late-career run beginning with his age-34 season.

[Link for app users]

MLBTR Poll: Finding A Fit For Chris Carter

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As we head into February, Chris Carter’s winter continues to drag on. The slugger tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home run crown last season, but the Brewers non-tendered him, casting him into a market full of similar players, many of whom also still haven’t found new teams. Also, at least a couple recent signings (such as Mark Trumbo to the Orioles, Brandon Moss to the Royals and perhaps even Mark Reynolds to the Rockies) have seemingly foreclosed upon possible destinations for Carter. A variety of teams have been connected to Carter recently, and MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently listed some more speculative fits. Where do you think he might end up? Here are some possibilities, some admittedly more likely than others.

Rays. Tampa Bay recently came to terms with Logan Morrison, but is seemingly still interested in acquiring a right-handed bat. Carter would certainly qualify, although there are a number of other possibilities, including Mike Napoli, Franklin Gutierrez and Byung Ho Park.

Rangers. Texas has been strongly connected to Napoli, although no deal has been consummated yet, and Carter would seemingly work as a backup option. Scott Boras, meanwhile, is reportedly trying to sell the Rangers on signing another potential DH, Pedro Alvarez.

Marlins. Carter would give Miami a righty to pair with Justin Bour at first base, and the Marlins reportedly have had interest in Carter. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, though, recently pointed out that the Marlins don’t figure to spend much more than their current $110MM payroll, and wrote that the possibility they would sign Carter was “extremely remote.”

White Sox. The White Sox are only a speculative possibility, as there’s been little or no reporting connecting them to Carter. But the team has a clear opening at DH, and Carter would be a fun fit at homer-happy Guaranteed Rate Field.

Mariners. This is another speculative fit, and perhaps a less likely one, since the team has Nelson Cruz at DH and righty Danny Valencia said upon being acquired earlier this offseason that he expected to play first base (where he’ll presumably complement lefty Dan Vogelbach). Given Valencia’s ability to play other positions, though, and given that the Mariners have preferred to allow Cruz to play the outfield once a series or so, perhaps the Mariners could see an opportunity here, although that seems like a stretch.

Athletics. Incumbent A’s first baseman Yonder Alonso is coming off a very poor season, and the team could potentially use Carter at first and DH while also using Ryon Healy at those positions. The A’s tend to be opportunistic and haven’t been shy about making moves in February, although there’s been nothing specifically connecting them to Carter.

Japan. Carter’s agent, former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart, recently said his client could consider offers from overseas, and Japanese teams would surely love to acquire a high-profile MLB hitter like Carter. And as MLBTR’s Adams pointed out, the Brewers were not able to find a trade partner for Carter when his projected arbitration salary was in the $8MM range, suggesting that he won’t be able to land much of a guaranteed MLB salary. Carter himself recently said his priority was to sign with an MLB team, however.

Other. There are, of course, more out-of-nowhere possibilities. Perhaps the Nationals could see a chance to upgrade at first, although one would think they’d have more interest in a left-handed hitter they could pair with Ryan Zimmerman, who’s controllable through 2020. Maybe the Mets could attempt to add Carter after Lucas Duda’s injury-plagued 2016 and Jay Bruce’s underwhelming stint with them, although it seems like quite a stretch to think that Duda or Carter would ever play the outfield, and the team could use Bruce or Michael Conforto at first if Duda’s back issues flare up again. Maybe the Blue Jays could see a chance to upgrade, although their acquisition of the lefty-mashing Steve Pearce complicates that possibility quite a bit. And perhaps Carter could even return to the Brewers, although that would have seemed far more likely had they traded Ryan Braun, whose departure could have bumped Eric Thames to the outfield. There’s also the possibility an injury could create an opportunity for Carter that we haven’t yet anticipated.

So where do you think Carter will go? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Poll: Byung Ho Park’s Future

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Transactions across Major League Baseball have begun to pick up as the spring closes in, and no move has come as a bigger surprise this week than the Twins’ decision to designate first baseman/DH Byung Ho Park for assignment on Friday. After signing 36-year-old reliever Matt Belisle to a cheap contract, rebuilding Minnesota jettisoned Park from its 40-man roster just one year after doling out $24.85MM to land him. Before committing a four-year, $12MM deal to Park last winter, the Twins had to pay his previous team, the Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization, a $12.85MM posting fee to acquire his negotiating rights.

Byung Ho Park

Despite the low-payroll Twins’ investment in Park under previous general manager Terry Ryan, the club’s new front office – led by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine – clearly isn’t enamored of the 30-year-old. It’s easy to see why, perhaps, as Park certainly failed to live up to the hype accompanying him in his first year in the States. Park hit an underwhelming .191/.275/.409 with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate in 244 plate appearances with the Twins before they optioned him to Triple-A Rochester on July 1. While he was significantly more productive after the demotion, largely thanks to a .526 slugging percentage, Park still hit an ugly .224 and posted a sub-.300 on-base rate in 128 PAs with Rochester.

In fairness to Park, a wrist injury – for which he underwent season-ending surgery in late August – may have stunted him in 2016. Plus, as FanGraphs’ Travis Sawchik pointed out earlier this week in a piece urging the Twins not to give up on Park (they designated him two days later), he did show encouraging signs as a rookie despite his less-than-gaudy triple slash. Evidenced somewhat by his 12 home runs and .219 ISO (league average was .162) in limited major league action, Park packed a wallop last season. Moreover, only one player with at least 75 batted-ball events (Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, who laid waste to the league as a rookie) posted a greater percentage of barrels than Park, while just nine registered higher exit velocities on fly balls and line drives. At 97.2 mph, Park was right in line with David Ortiz and Giancarlo Stanton.

So, there could be notable upside present with Park, and although he’s currently in seven-day DFA limbo, it’s arguable that his price tag shouldn’t serve as a deterrent if another club is interested in picking him up. The expectation is that Park will clear waivers, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported Friday, but his remaining contract is rather insignificant to most major league teams.

As one of Sawchik’s FanGraphs colleagues, Dave Cameron, wrote Friday, Park could make sense for any of the Rangers, Athletics and White Sox. All three have questions at first base and/or DH, as do the frugal Rays, who have been on the lookout for a right-handed bat throughout the offseason and continue to search for one in the wake of re-signing lefty-swinging first baseman Logan Morrison. Of course, any of those teams could simply sign Chris Carter, who co-led the National League with 41 home runs last season, or even 34-homer man Mike Napoli if they’re willing to spend more. However, controlling Park through the 2019 season at an ultra-affordable $9.25MM might make him a more enticing option for someone hoping his tendency to hit the ball hard leads to a statistical breakout. If not, Park will head into spring training as one of the Twins’ non-roster invitees and try to get back on their 40-man at some point this year. Is that what ought to happen, though, or is Park currently worthy of a roster spot elsewhere?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Biggest February Signing?

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The calendar flips to February tomorrow, meaning that only about two weeks remain until Spring Training. For most of us, that means counting down to a welcome distraction from winter doldrums. But for a certain few free-agent ballplayers, there’s considerably more at stake.

Nine days ago, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth counted down the top-ten remaining free agents. Since that time, two members of the list have signed contracts. The remaining eight players, though, are among those who have yet to determine where they’ll play the 2017 season (and, perhaps, beyond). Just one other pre-winter top-fifty free agent, veteran second baseman Chase Utley, has yet to sign. We’ll throw Chris Carter into the mix, too. (He wasn’t considered because the list came out before he was non-tendered.)

As we wait to see how it all shakes out, I thought it would be interesting to see how MLBTR’s readers are reading the market. Things always look different at the end of the offseason than they do at the beginning, for a wide variety of reasons. So, our original rankings don’t necessarily hold at this point.

  • Jason Hammel — A surprise addition to the market, Hammel hasn’t garnered nearly as much interest as expected. Potential concern over his elbow health may be a factor. Still, he has a strong track record and could provide a serious boost to a lot of rotations.
  • Matt Wieters — It’s anybody’s guess how this situation will play out. It’s possible that the veteran catcher overplayed his hand early on, but agent Scott Boras has found money late in the offseason before.
  • Mike Napoli — There has been a lot of attention on Napoli, but he remains unsigned and seems uncertain to achieve a second guaranteed season.
  • Travis Wood — The southpaw reportedly has offers to work as a starter, but it’s unclear just how much cash is being dangled. He could fit in quite a few places and provide quite a bit of function as a swingman.
  • Joe Blanton — Though he’s getting up there in age and faded a bit in the postseason, Blanton was largely outstanding last year.
  • Sergio Romo — Teams interested in a late-inning reliever with experience as a closer may see Romo as the top remaining target.
  • Fernando Salas — The earned-run results haven’t always been there, but Salas carries intriguing peripherals and was dominant in his late-season turn with the Mets.
  • Boone Logan — The walk tallies aren’t encouraging, but Logan continues to compile top-of-the-line swinging-strike rates. He’s still competing with other high-quality southpaw relievers, including Wood, Jerry Blevins, and J.P. Howell.
  • Chase Utley — It’s said that Utley is nearing a decision, with multiple offers on the table. It’d be surprising if he lands truly significant money, but teams may place added value on this proven grinder.
  • Chris Carter — Though Mark Trumbo may have fallen a bit shy of expectations, he still earned a big payday. The highly comparable Carter likely won’t come anywhere near Trumbo’s earnings, but it’s fair to wonder why there’s such a divide in their markets.

So, here’s your chance to weigh in. Which of those players (randomized in the poll) will earn the biggest contract over the coming weeks? (Link for mobile app users.)

Poll: Rangers’ First Base/DH Situation

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Nearly two months have passed since the Rangers lost longtime primary first baseman Mitch Moreland, who signed a cheap deal with the Red Sox in early December. Moreland was never particularly spectacular as a member of the Rangers, with whom he batted .254/.315/.438 in 2,762 plate appearances from 2010-16, but the three-time 20-home run hitter’s departure has left the club without an established option at first.

Mike Napoli[RELATED: Rangers Depth Chart]

Led by general manager Jon Daniels, the Rangers have been on the hunt for a first base/designated hitter type to help replace Moreland and Carlos Beltran, who signed with AL West rival Houston one day before Moreland went to Boston. Texas hasn’t reeled in anyone yet, though, largely because it hasn’t been willing to make multiyear commitments in free agency. The Rangers have signed three players – Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Carlos Gomez – to major league deals this offseason, and all received one-year contracts.

Texas, which would like to at least partially fix its first base/DH issues by signing yet another player to a single-year pact, has targeted two-time Ranger Mike Napoli. Having hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 home runs as an Indian last season, Napoli would be a capable replacement for Moreland. The 35-year-old has not been amenable to the Rangers’ one-year offer, however, and they don’t seem open to locking him up through 2018.

Fellow free agent slugger Chris Carter has also drawn the Rangers’ attention after co-leading the National League with 41 home runs in 2016. Carter’s blend of power and patience is enticing, but his low-contact, high-strikeout ways and negative defensive and baserunning value led the Brewers to non-tender him in December. Those flaws have also prevented him from landing anywhere else since. As is the case with Napoli, the Rangers are open to adding Carter, but only for one year (on an incentive-laden accord, no less).

With Brandon Moss now off the market, Pedro Alvarez is arguably the second- or third-best free agent first baseman/DH remaining (depending on your opinion of Carter). To this point, though, the Rangers haven’t been connected to him or other unsigned options like Mark Reynolds, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison or Ryan Howard.

If Texas doesn’t pick up a free agent to potentially slide in at first/DH, they could let in-house options sink or swim to at least begin the season. The Rangers have added multiple brand names – first baseman James Loney and former superstar outfielder Josh Hamilton – on minor league deals this month. The contact-oriented Loney didn’t hit with either the Rays or Mets during the past two seasons, which led to a dismal minus-1.5 fWAR over 744 plate appearances. Hamilton has no first base experience, meanwhile, and has played in only 50 games since 2015 (none last season) while dealing with major injury issues. Thus, the Rangers would be hard pressed to expect much from him or Loney in 2017. The same applies to Ryan Rua, a lifetime .255/.308/.404 hitter across 464 PAs.

Other than those three, the Rangers possess a pair of 23-year-olds, Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo, who used to be elite prospects and who could play significant roles during the upcoming season. The switch-hitting Profar is the front-runner to start the campaign at first for the Rangers, but his production (.235/.311/.341 in 648 PAs) hasn’t come close to matching the hype he garnered in his prospect days. The lefty-swinging Gallo could begin in the minors, and even if he doesn’t, his prodigious power comes with worrisome swing-and-miss tendencies. Gallo has struck out in just under 50 percent of his 153 trips to the plate in the majors, which would be less alarming if not for the lofty strikeout rates he has also posted in the minors.

As evidenced above, the Rangers have a high quantity of choices to fill two lineup spots, but there isn’t a single one who’s a good bet to succeed at the big league level in 2017. On the other hand, the track records of Napoli and Carter suggest they’ll fare well offensively next season, but will one of them (or another free agent) end up in Texas? Or will the reigning American League West champions go forward with what they have and perhaps reevaluate during the season?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Sign Greg Holland?

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There has been a fair amount of reporting this winter on Greg Holland, the wild card on the closer’s market. While we won’t ever know just how much he’d have earned if his last two seasons had matched the three that came before — which would have made him the fourth top-end reliever available this winter — we will learn before too long just how much an organization is willing to commit to see if he can still return to being one of the game’s best relievers.

Holland is still working back from Tommy John surgery, but figures to be prepared for a full 2017 season, adding to the interest. Last we checked, he was angling for a one-year deal with a player option for a second (or, if you prefer, a two-year deal with an opt-out clause) — essentially, a fairly hefty guarantee with the chance to return to the market if all goes well. That he thinks he can command such a contract speaks to the level of interest.

At last look, the 31-year-old was engaged with the Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Reds, and Rays, with the Cubs and Royals seemingly having fallen out of the race. If the Brewers finalize their reported push to sign Neftali Feliz, they may also be out of the hunt, though that’s still not certain.

For the time being, those other five organizations are perhaps the most likely suitors. Of the group, the win-now Nationals are in most obvious need of an experienced closer. But the Reds could give Holland the 9th, too, as might the Rockies and even the Rays — in the unlikely event that they strike a deal to move Alex Colome. Only the Dodgers seem clearly set to utilize a different pitcher in the closer’s role, though Los Angeles could certainly stand to boost its setup corps in front of re-signed reliever Kenley Jansen.

It’s still possible that a dark horse could emerge, but it seems reasonable to expect a signing before too long. So, it’s time to get your picks in: who do you expect to sign Holland? (Link for app users.)

Poll: What Will Dodgers Do About Second Base?

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Having re-signed top free agents Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner and Rich Hill this winter, the Dodgers – winners of four straight NL West titles – once again look like World Series contenders as the 2017 campaign nears. One glaring weakness on the roster is at second base, where Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi have been on a well-documented quest to improve since the Cubs eliminated them from the NLCS last October.

Brian Dozier

Los Angeles’ search for help at the keystone has centered on the Twins’ Brian Dozier, who established himself as a very good player from 2013-15 and then performed like a star last year. Dozier slugged 42 home runs, becoming just the fourth second baseman in league history to swat 40-plus in a season, while also providing value on the bases and in the field.

With the Twins in a rebuild, it makes sense that the Dodgers have pursued Dozier, but they haven’t been able to pry him from Minnesota. It doesn’t appear they will, either, as the two sides are at an “impasse” because LA has refused to add prospects Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart to its Jose De Leon-fronted offer.

With a Dozier pickup seemingly unlikely, the Dodgers could look to other quality second basemen potentially on the trade market in the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Rays’ Logan Forsythe. Aside from their status as above-average players, those two share other similarities with Dozier: They’re under contract for two more years at affordable rates (Kinsler could demand an extension to waive his no-trade clause, though), meaning they won’t be easy to acquire, and they’re right-handed hitters. The latter point should be of considerable intrigue to the Dodgers, who had the majors’ worst offense against left-handed pitchers last season. All of Dozier, Kinsler and Forsythe hold their own versus southpaws and would greatly help the Dodgers’ cause in that regard.

If the Dodgers aren’t able to swing a trade for a high-impact second baseman, they’ll be left to pick from scraps in free agency and/or pin their hopes on uninspiring in-house options. The top name on the open market is Chase Utley, who has spent the past season-plus with the Dodgers. The longtime Phillie was fine in 2016, hitting .252/.319/.396 with 14 home runs and accounting for a league-average fWAR (2.0) in 565 plate appearances. His age (38) is a concern, however, as is the fact that lefty pitchers have confounded him in back-to-back seasons (.170/.245/.271 in a combined 212 PAs). Nevertheless, cognizant that they might not be able to improve at second via trade, the Dodgers have interest in re-signing Utley.

Whether it’s Utley, another free agent or a trade acquisition, it does seem as if an outsider will be the Dodgers’ primary second baseman in 2017. Their current options – Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Charlie Culberson, Jose Miguel Fernandez and backup catcher Austin Barnes – don’t carry much appeal as regulars. It’s still possible, granted, that the Dodgers will roll with that that group to at least begin the season. What do you think they’ll do?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Do Astros Need To Acquire Front-End Starter?

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As a result of a somewhat disappointing 2016 that began with World Series aspirations and ended with a third-place finish in the AL West, the Astros have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason. Since November, Houston has either traded for or signed Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki and Charlie Morton in an attempt to beef up a roster that won 84 games last season. You’ll notice that only one of those five – Morton – is a starting pitcher, and he’s a back-end type who has dealt with a laundry list of injuries during his career.

Jose Quintana

The Astros’ inability to acquire a front-line starter this winter to join Morton and others in their rotation hasn’t been for a lack of trying, of course. To this point, the team has pursued trades for ex-White Sox and now-Red Sox ace Chris Sale, current ChiSox No. 1 Jose Quintana, various members of the Rays’ rotation – including Chris Archer – as well as Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura of the Royals. Astros president Reid Ryan has even publicly opined that the club is missing an ace.

“What we lack is that starter who you pencil in at the top of the rotation that is an automatic W,” Ryan told MLB Network Radio in December.

Of the starters the Astros have courted via trade, they’ve been the most aggressive with the 27-year-old Quintana, who has both an outstanding track record and an ultra-affordable contract. Houston and Chicago have been in touch on a daily basis regarding Quintana, though the Astros haven’t been willing to sacrifice possible long-term rotation pieces to land the southpaw. That includes 24-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove, who had an encouraging major league debut last season, and fellow righty Francis Martes. Unlike Musgrove, Martes hasn’t reached the big league level, but the 21-year-old was terrific with Double-A Corpus Christi in 2016 and now ranks as MLB.com’s 29th-best prospect.

“It would take something significant for us to move him,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said of Martes last month.

While Quintana does qualify as “significant,” it’s debatable whether a No. 1-type starter is more of a need than a luxury for the Astros. Their premier option, lefty Dallas Keuchel, took sizable steps backward last season as he dealt with shoulder troubles, yet he isn’t far removed from a two-year run of brilliance that culminated with the AL Cy Young Award in 2015. Shoulder issues also limited curveball-heavy righty Lance McCullers last season, but the 23-year-old has been highly effective when healthy since debuting in 2015. Across 206 2/3 innings, McCullers has logged a 3.22 ERA, 10.23 K/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 50.5 percent ground-ball rate.

The other members of the Astros’ projected starting five – Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Morton – have decidedly less upside than Keuchel and McCullers, but each are capable major league starters. And, in the event of injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Astros possess depth with Musgrove, Martes, Brady Rodgers and David Paulino either ready for the majors or close to it. Further, led by Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz, Houston has a deep bullpen that can shorten games and take pressure off its rotation.

In the end, it would certainly be a boon for the Astros to add Quintana (or someone of his ilk) to what looks like a playoff-caliber roster. At least opening the season with their current contingent of rotation options would be far from catastrophic, though, and Luhnow could continue to monitor the trade market during the season if his starters don’t suffice. Of course, judging by his ongoing interest in Quintana, it seems Luhnow wants to bolster his rotation before the 2017 campaign commences. But does he really need to?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Twins Trade Brian Dozier?

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We’ve heard plenty over recent weeks about the Twins’ negotiations with rival clubs over star second baseman Brian Dozier. Minnesota reportedly asked interested suitors for their final offers in late December, but nothing more has emerged since (at least, not yet).

The Dodgers have been tied most heavily, and probably represent the cleanest fit. But the two organizations are said to be haggling over a complementary piece to accompany intriguing righty Jose De Leon, who’d seem to represent a worthwhile centerpiece. We’ve heard suggestions that the division-rival Giants could also be involved, though it has never been apparent whether San Francisco is fully engaged on Dozier. Likewise, the Cardinals and Nationals have been mentioned as possibilities, but it’s questionable at best whether either could represent a serious pursuer. There are a few other organizations that seem like hypothetical matches on paper, but we have yet to hear any suggestion of broader interest.

That’s hardly an optimal situation for the Twins, who would obviously prefer to see some bidding on a player who has compiled about 14 fWAR over the last three seasons and is owed just $15MM for his age-30 and 31 seasons. While it’s fair to wonder whether Dozier can maintain anything like the power surge he showed last year (.278 ISO, 42 home runs), he’s not dependent upon gaudy dinger tallies for all of his value. Dozier also rates as an outstanding overall baserunner and solid-enough up-the-middle defender, and has never slipped below league-average offensive production since establishing himself in the majors, so there’s a solid floor to go with his newly established ceiling.

All said, it would be hard for Minnesota to part with that package for anything less than what it deems to be fair value. If that can’t be found now, then perhaps the organization will just have to take Dozier into the season and take on the risks of waiting for a trade-deadline deal. That approach has paid off in some cases (Cole Hamels, Jonathan Lucroy) while backfiring in others (Tyson Ross). Ultimately, if the Giants aren’t willing to push the envelope, and no additional teams step into the fray, then this may simply turn into a staring contest between Derek Falvey and Andrew Friedman.

So, MLBTR readers, what do you think is most likely? Will the Twins strike a deal at some point in the coming weeks, or will Dozier still be at second base in Minnesota for the coming season (or, at least, part of it)? (Link for app users.)

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