MLBTR Poll: Grading The Brewers/Padres Trade
Yesterday, the Brewers and Padres linked up on an interesting four-player swap. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd discussed the players involved in the immediate aftermath of the deal, but it’s worth pondering a little further.
San Diego sent middle infielder Luis Urías and left-hander Eric Lauer to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Trent Grisham and right-hander Zach Davies. It’s the rare swap involving four current MLB players, three of whom have yet to even reach arbitration. Unlike many deals where a current contender trades future value to a rebuilding club to upgrade the roster in the short-term, this swap hinges mostly on the talent of the players involved. As Padres GM A.J. Preller put it (via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), “sometimes, there are deals because of salary issues. Sometimes, there are deals because someone’s getting toward free agency, because clubs are contending or not contending. In this case, it’s just a good baseball trade.”
For the most part, the deal turns on which of Urías and Grisham one prefers. Each has been a top 50 overall prospect in the past, per Baseball America, but Urías entered 2019 as the more acclaimed of the two. Grisham had a breakout season in the high minors last year, with a cumulative .300/.407/.603 slash in 441 plate appearances between AA and AAA before making his MLB debut in August. Urías, too, mashed in AAA last season (.315/.398/.600 in 339 PA), but scuffled in limited big league action. Grisham was a bit better in his small sample of MLB time, even if a misplay in right field in the NL Wild Card game ended the season on a sour note.
Of course, that one play was not the reason Milwaukee pulled the trigger on this deal, as Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). On the whole, reviews of Grisham’s defense in the corner outfield tend to be positive, even if, despite 93rd percentile sprint speed, he’s not viewed by many public outlets as a long-term option in center. Urías offers more defensive value as a middle infielder, although reviews tend to be mixed on him at shortstop, where he figures to play in Milwaukee with Keston Hiura locking down the keystone.
It’s a bit tougher to get too excited over the pitchers involved, although both are certainly useful big leaguers. Davies has the stronger bottom line results, with a 3.91 career ERA and an even better 3.55 mark in 159.2 innings in 2019. He’s never posted a 20% strikeout rate or a 10% swinging strike rate in a full season, though, and the soft-tossing contact manager has generally fallen out of favor in today’s game. Lauer’s profile isn’t dramatically different. His strikeout and walk rates are higher than Davies’ but each is lower than average. Lauer, though, hasn’t had the success Davies has had to this point keeping runs off the board. Davies is more expensive ($5MM arbitration projection) and comes with three fewer seasons of team control, but neither hurler figures to threaten either team’s bottom line moving forward.
How would you grade this deal for both teams?
First, Milwaukee..
(poll link for app users)
Grade the Brewers' side of yesterday's four-player deal.
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B 50% (10,466)
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A 24% (5,027)
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C 20% (4,275)
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D 4% (764)
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F 2% (495)
Total votes: 21,027
And San Diego…
(poll link for app users)
Grade the Padres' side of yesterday's four-player deal.
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B 39% (7,595)
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C 35% (6,808)
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A 14% (2,750)
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D 8% (1,661)
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F 4% (733)
Total votes: 19,547
MLBTR Poll: Best Managerial Hire?
Barring a surprising development, it’ll be several months before we see another managerial change in Major League Baseball. The Pirates, the last of eight teams that sought a new skipper on the heels of last season, filled the position with the hiring of former Twins bench coach Derek Shelton on Wednesday. The Angels, Phillies, Giants, Royals, Mets, Cubs and Padres previously landed new managers.
Of the teams that went in different directions in the dugout this offseason, half hired individuals with previous managerial experience. The Angels and Phillies, two big-spending clubs looking to break long playoff droughts, each tabbed a prior World Series winner. Los Angeles selected Joe Maddon, whom the Cubs parted with at the conclusion of the season, while Philadelphia went with Joe Girardi after he enjoyed an eminently successful run with the Yankees from 2008-17.
Girardi’s taking over for Gabe Kapler, whose tenure in Philly was not always sunny (far from it). The Phillies parted with Kapler on the heels of two straight mediocre-at-best years, but that didn’t stop the Giants from hiring him to succeed three-time champion and potential Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy. The rebuilding Royals also had to find someone to grab the reins from a former championship winner, Ned Yost, who retired. They chose ex-Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, who – like Kapler – wasn’t particularly popular in his prior stop.
Meanwhile, the four first-timers are stepping into differing situations. Carlos Beltran, who’s not far removed from wrapping up what could be a Cooperstown-caliber playing career, doesn’t even have any coaching experience. Nevertheless, the Mets are putting their faith in the 42-year-old Beltran – once of their stars – to outperform predecessor Mickey Callaway. Beltran proved capable of handling New York’s special brand of pressure when he was a player, but it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll be able to do the same in his new role with a Mets team that expects to push for a postseason berth in 2020.
Likewise, longtime major league catcher David Ross has assumed the reins of one of his former clubs, the Cubs, who will enter next season with playoff aspirations after petering out this year under Maddon. Ross is a fan favorite in Chicago thanks to his time with the Cubs, though he’s yet another managerial pick with no coaching experience.
On the other hand, Shelton and the Padres’ Jayce Tingler have coached, though neither one is inheriting a team that looks especially likely to contend next season. That said, there will be pressure for San Diego, led by general manager A.J. Preller, to at least get back to .500 for the first time since 2010. The hope for the club is that the 38-year-old Tingler, a former Rangers assistant who’s now the second-youngest manager in the game (Twins AL Manager of the Year winner Rocco Baldelli is younger), will emerge as something of a wunderkind.
So, who made the best hire among this large group of franchises? Is it one of the clubs that went the experienced route? Or do you like one of the rookies the best?
(Poll link for app users)
Best managerial hire?
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Joe Girardi 34% (9,636)
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Joe Maddon 24% (6,805)
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Derek Shelton 12% (3,398)
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Gabe Kapler 12% (3,379)
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David Ross 7% (1,913)
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Carlos Beltran 6% (1,801)
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Mike Matheny 3% (917)
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Jayce Tingler 2% (675)
Total votes: 28,524
MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray?
The 2019 campaign did not go according to plan for the Rockies, who entered it with playoff aspirations after earning postseason bids in each of the previous two years. The team ended up as one of the most disappointing clubs of the season, though, as it stumbled to a dismal 71-91 record and a fourth-place finish in the National League West.
Perhaps the Rockies will return to the game’s upper echelon next year, but they remain stuck in a division that the mighty Dodgers are likely to own yet again in 2020. Furthermore, it seems the Rox will have to climb out of the basement without any major outside improvements this offseason. Owner Dick Monfort has indicated the Rockies, who are saddled by a few bad contracts (Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy and Bryan Shaw), don’t have the payroll flexibility to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.
In light of Monfort’s comments, MLBTR’s TC Zencka noted while previewing the Rockies’ offseason that their outlook for 2020 doesn’t look particularly hopeful. With that in mind, one wouldn’t be out of line to suggest Colorado should consider trading a couple of its top contributors whose team control is running out. Specifically, there’s shortstop Trevor Story and right-hander Jon Gray – two players who are only arbitration-eligible through the 2021 season. Story is projected to earn $11.5MM next season, while Gray should rake in around $5.6MM. Both salaries are bargains relative to what Story and Gray bring to the table, which is arguably all the more reason for the Rockies to listen to offers for the pair.
The 27-year-old Story is fresh off a two-season run in which he was unquestionably an elite shortstop, as he racked up 10.9 fWAR, slashed .293/.355/.561 with 72 home runs and 50 stolen bases across 1,312 plate appearances, and totaled 18 Defensive Runs Saved. Just about any team would sign up for that all-around production, and if you’re a club in need of a shortstop, there’s not much out there in free agency other than Didi Gregorius (who’s coming off a poor season). That’s yet another reason Story and his affordable two years of control would bring back a haul in a trade, one that could help the Rockies turn around a subpar farm system.
Although Story would generate widespread interest on the trade market, general manager Jeff Bridich and the Rockies don’t seem inclined to part with him, instead clinging to the hope that they’ll be able to extend him. Maybe a long-term pact for Story looks unlikely, though the Rox did manage to lock up third baseman Nolan Arenado last February – less than a year before he was slated to reach free agency – with a seven-year, $234MM extension. Keeping Story under wraps won’t cost that much, but the Arenado deal showed they’re willing to go all-out to keep premier talent on board.
As with Story, the Rockies appear as if they’ll retain Gray, even though the hard-throwing 28-year-old has garnered trade interest early this offseason. Gray wouldn’t fetch the return that Story would in a trade, but his aforementioned affordable salary and history of solid production are clearly appealing. Teams that may not necessarily want to splurge on the best free-agent starters (Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, among others) could turn their focus to Gray if the Rockies are open to giving him up. But it doesn’t look as if that’s the case for Colorado, which, going forward, will apparently.hope for bounce-back seasons from its players who were letdowns in 2019 and attempt to return to relevance next year.
The question is: Should the Rockies essentially wave the white flag already on 2020 and trade Story, Gray or both standouts? With team control waning for each player, there’s a legitimate case that Colorado should go in another direction and opt for a rebuild.
(Poll link for app users)
What should the Rockies do with Story, Gray?
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Trade both 41% (2,910)
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Keep both 23% (1,683)
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Trade Gray if they can't extend him 20% (1,425)
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Trade Story if they can't extend him 16% (1,162)
Total votes: 7,180
MLBTR Poll: Which Top Free Agent Should The Reds Pursue?
The Reds figure to be among the offseason’s most fascinating teams. They want to contend in 2020, plan to increase payroll, and have a few areas on the roster in need of upgrade. The lineup figures to be the main focus, as Cincinnati finished 25th in baseball in runs despite a hitter-friendly home park. More specifically, the Reds could look to bolster their catching, middle infield and corner outfield mix. Alternatively, they could return Nick Senzel to second base full-time, although they’d then be left parsing through a sparse center field market. With those needs in mind, the MLBTR staff forecast Cincinnati coming away with Yasmani Grandal and Didi Gregorius at the outset of the offseason. Grandal, of course, has since signed with the White Sox, although the Reds have been linked to Gregorius this month.
However, the club certainly doesn’t appear ready to pigeonhole itself into searching for offense. They were tied to Zack Wheeler, the number three starting pitching option on the market, this week. While bolstering a starting rotation that already projects as one of the league’s best might seem questionable for a team with so many offensive holes, there’s merit to the idea of acquiring the best players possible and sorting out the puzzle pieces later. Adding Wheeler, or one of the many other starting pitchers available, would make the Reds better, even if it doesn’t address the team’s most glaring weakness.
So where should the Reds turn? In addition to Gregorius and Wheeler, they’ve checked in on any number of free agents in the early going. To some extent, they were in on Grandal before he went to Chicago, although it isn’t clear if talks got very far. They’ve checked in on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos, each of whom would be a conventional fit for an offense-needy club. Given the players to whom they’ve been linked, it’s little surprise Cincinnati isn’t overly concerned about forfeiting draft pick compensation to sign a player attached to a qualifying offer.
Speculatively speaking, even Mike Moustakas could make sense, assuming Cincinnati’s front office is comfortable with him as an option at second base. The Reds’ interest in Wheeler indicates we shouldn’t entirely rule out a starter like Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu, either, even if neither hurler has yet been connected to the organization.
Options abound, but it seems likely the Reds will make some notable splash this winter. Where should they turn as they look to snap a six-year playoff drought?
Poll link (answer order randomized).
Which Top Free Agent Should The Reds Pursue?
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Didi Gregorius 35% (4,905)
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Zack Wheeler 15% (2,182)
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Marcell Ozuna 15% (2,076)
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Nicholas Castellanos 14% (1,980)
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Madison Bumgarner 8% (1,084)
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Mike Moustakas 6% (846)
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Hyun-Jin Ryu 6% (788)
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Other (specify in comments) 2% (224)
Total votes: 14,085
MLBTR Poll: Starling Marte’s Future
The Mets are showing interest in acquiring Starling Marte, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Marte, who owns a career slash line of .287/.341/.452 across 8 seasons, is currently under contract with the Pirates for $11.5MM in 2020 with an exceedingly affordable club option for $12.5MM in 2021.
New Pirates GM Ben Cherington has barely had time to take his coat off, but given the executive’s stated preference to steer an organization through a ground-up rebuilding effort, resolving the future of his 31-year-old face of the franchise is likely high up on Cherington’s to-do list. That said, Marte’s contract, position, and production puts him among the Pirates’ most valuable trade chips. Therefore, Cherington is unlikely to execute a trade without a full organizational plan in place. The Pirates may prefer to tab a field manager before moving any of their key player. On the other hand, Cherington was said to have free rein when it comes to roster construction.
In theory, it makes sense to move Marte now while two years of team control remain (though the Pirates are particularly and understandably sensitive to the plight of their fanbase, who has seen more than their share of homegrown superstars leave town over the years). Still, the hiring of Cherington may point toward another Pittsburgh teardown, and a Marte trade is probably Cherington’s best, first opportunity to put his stamp on the organization. Cherington could aim to restock the farm with a handpicked package of prospects deemed as good fits for his development program.
If indeed Cherington does make Marte available, the Mets are an obvious fit. Given the dearth of centerfield options on the free agent market, it would be unsurprising for the Cubs, Reds, Padres, Diamondbacks, Phillies or Rangers to check on the price of a Marte acquisition as well. The potential demand bodes well for the Pirates, who are unlikely to emerge as contenders before Marte’s contract runs out. The NL Central may not have a consensus favorite at the moment, but the Reds continue to push for contention, and the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs are also good best to land on the competitive end of the talent spectrum.
Nearly 62 percent of MLBTR readers recently suggested the Pirates would be better off trading 2019 breakout star Josh Bell, and given Bell’s youth relative to Marte, let’s assume most of you feel the same about him. If nothing else, we can probably agree that the Pirates should at least explore trading Marte. So where should Cherington look to procure the best package of prospects? This, of course, takes into consideration the urgency of the acquiring team as well as the value of their farm systems – as well as, potentially, the likelihood of consummating a deal. Understanding that I’ve certainly left a prime contender or two off this list, in your estimation, who should Cherington call first? We know the Mets are interested, but is there a better fit beyond New York?
To get yourself in a Pittsburgh state of mind before casting your vote, check out the Pirates’ Offseason Outlook from MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
(Poll link for app users)
If you were the Pirates GM, and you wanted to trade Starling Marte: who is your first call?
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Mets 26% (3,442)
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Padres 17% (2,176)
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White Sox 10% (1,382)
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Don't trade him! 7% (982)
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Other 7% (961)
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Phillies 6% (812)
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Blue Jays 5% (714)
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Reds 5% (630)
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Cubs 4% (588)
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Red Sox 4% (468)
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Giants 3% (447)
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Rangers 3% (356)
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Diamondbacks 2% (213)
Total votes: 13,171
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Grandal Deal
Catcher Yasmani Grandal has now been the top backstop available on the open market in back-to-back offseasons. But this winter’s trip to free agency turned out drastically different for Grandal than last year’s. Coming off a prosperous run with the Dodgers an offseason ago, Grandal turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets before signing a one-year, $18.25MM guarantee with the Brewers. Grandal’s Milwaukee pact was barely more than the qualifying offer he rejected from the Dodgers, but it did give the 31-year-old the opportunity to make a substantial amount for a single season and once again make a case for a lucrative long-term deal. A year later, it seems fair to say things worked out well for the switch-hitting Grandal.
In his lone season as a Brewer, Grandal showed yet again that he’s one of the most well-rounded catchers in baseball. He earned the second All-Star nod of his career, racked up 5.2 fWAR, slashed .246/.380/.468 with a career-high 28 home runs in 632 plate appearances, and ranked near the top of the league as a pitch framer. While Grandal’s stellar 2019 output wasn’t much different than his 2018 production, he wasn’t going to settle for another one-year deal this time.
Grandal officially departed Milwaukee on Thursday to become the highest-paid player in the history of the White Sox, who signed him to a four-year, $73MM deal with full no-trade protection in 2020 and a partial NTC thereafter. It’s an undeniably bold strike by Chicago, which hasn’t finished with a .500 or better record since 2012 and hasn’t clinched a playoff spot since 2008. However, the White Sox are aiming to wrap up a multiyear rebuild and put themselves back on the map in the AL Central division, where they’re wedged between two contenders (the Twins and Indians) and a pair of noncompetitive clubs (the Royals and Tigers).
The Grandal signing figures to help the White Sox move closer to relevance in 2020, as he’s a clear upgrade over their No. 1 catcher from last season, James McCann. Of course, as is the case with all big-money acquisitions, there’s risk involved – especially when talking about a 30-something catcher. To Grandal’s credit, though, he has been eminently durable and extraordinarily consistent to this point. And Grandal’s bat is so sturdy that it should work just fine at designated hitter, where he’ll be able to play on occasion to partially save himself from the wear and tear of catching. If there’s another reason to like this move for Chicago, it’s that the club didn’t give up any draft compensation for Grandal, who was ineligible to receive a QO.
In your opinion, did the White Sox make a wise move in handing Grandal a franchise-record payday? (Poll link for app users)
Grade Chicago's Yasmani Grandal signing
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B 34% (8,559)
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A 33% (8,407)
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D 18% (4,478)
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C 14% (3,463)
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F 2% (487)
Total votes: 25,394
MLBTR Poll: Which Top Starter Will Sign First?
We’ve seen movement on the relief market already, courtesy of the Braves. But the starting pitching market remains absolutely wide open and loaded with options, even after Jake Odorizzi decided against a full-blown open-market experience in favor of taking the qualifying offer.
Something will have to give at some point. There’s chatter already that some top players prefer not to experience the kind of lengthy waiting game that held sway over much of the market the past two winters. As importantly, the same appears to hold true for some teams. While there’s a lot of rotation supply, there’s also quite a lot of demand.
Indeed, there are so many starters populating MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents that it would be silly to consider them all here. We’ll focus on the eight top names — those that we see as having $20MM+ earning power on the open market. Will one of the big guns (Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg) go early and set the market? Or will some team seek to bypass a major bidding war by quickly nabbing one of the next-best names available (Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu)? Sturdy veterans Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels might seek early deals; the former lagged last winter and the latter has made clear he’s willing to do a one-year contract with a contender. Then again, there could be a run on Michael Pineda, who looks to be an interesting upside play.
What do you expect? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)
Which top free agent starter will sign first?
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Stephen Strasburg 21% (3,130)
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Zack Wheeler 17% (2,558)
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Cole Hamels 17% (2,476)
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Madison Bumgarner 13% (1,888)
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Hyun-Jin Ryu 11% (1,557)
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Dallas Keuchel 8% (1,106)
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Gerrit Cole 7% (1,018)
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Michael Pineda 7% (984)
Total votes: 14,717
MLBTR Poll: Josh Bell’s Future
The Pirates have a new general manager in Ben Cherington, whom they officially introduced as Neal Huntington’s replacement Monday. Pirates owner Bob Nutting indicated then that the Pirates, a few weeks removed from a 69-win season and their fourth straight year without a playoff berth, don’t regard anyone on their roster as untouchable. Even before Nutting made that revelation, many considered high-profile Pirates such as Starling Marte, Chris Archer and Keone Kela as trade candidates. But in the wake of Nutting’s comments, there’s an even bigger name in the mix: first baseman Josh Bell.
Would the Cherington-led Pirates dare shop Bell, who has arguably emerged as their first franchise player since the Andrew McCutchen era came to an end after the 2017 season? Bell, like McCutchen, is a homegrown Pirate made good. A second-round pick of the Pirates in 2011, Bell debuted in 2016 and posted mediocre numbers (relative to his offense-driven position) during the first three years of his career. But the switch-hitting Bell broke out this year during an All-Star season in which he slashed .277/.367/.569 with 37 home runs and 116 runs batted in – an impressive amount even if you regard RBI as an antiquated statistic.
So what’s the problem for Pittsburgh, which seems to have a real building block on its hands at first? As is often the case, it’s about the money. The 27-year-old Bell’s projected to make an affordable $5.9MM via arbitration in 2020, though he has just two more seasons of arbitration control thereafter. And considering their current state, it may be unrealistic on the Pirates’ part to expect they’ll turn back into contenders during Bell’s remaining arb years.
The Pirates could extend Bell in that time span and retain him for the long haul, though as of July, super-agent Scott Boras didn’t sound optimistic about a new deal coming together. Boras took aim at the Pirates for not showing a willingness “to go out and invest in a great young player for a long time,” also criticizing the team for a payroll that has barely climbed (relative to its profits) across the past two decades.
It’s hard to argue with the opinionated Boras regarding the Pirates, especially considering they still haven’t signed anyone for more than the $60MM extension they gave former star catcher Jason Kendall back in November 2000. Bell would likely rake in more on his next pact, but should Pittsburgh make an aggressive push to lock him up at this point? Should the team simply keep Bell and continue going year to year with him? Or maybe now is the time to trade Bell, who’s more appealing than all free-agent first basemen on the open market.
(Poll link for app users)
What should the Pirates do with Josh Bell?
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Trade him 62% (7,036)
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Keep him 38% (4,332)
Total votes: 11,368
MLBTR Poll: Qualified Free Agents
Thursday was the deadline for the 10 players who received the $17.8MM qualifying offer early this offseason to decide whether to take it. Seven players ended up rejecting, two accepted it (Jake Odorizzi and Jose Abreu) and one (Will Smith, now with the Braves) signed a contract with another team. The players who turned it down – Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner and Marcell Ozuna – are now in something of a disadvantageous position. With a QO hanging over their heads, it would require another team to surrender both a significant amount of money and draft compensation to sign them.
We’ve seen the QO hamper free agents in the past, but will it occur again this winter? First off, if it does, it’s at least not going to victimize Cole, Rendon or Strasburg. No matter what, they’re primed to lead this class of free agents in guarantees. Cole and Rendon should reel in $200MM-plus in guarantees, while Strasburg could approach that number. On the other hand, Wheeler, Donaldson, Bumgarner and Ozuna may face some degree of adversity thanks to the QO. Here’s a rundown on each…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
MLBTR projection: Five years, $100MM
- Aside from the QO, is there anything that would scare clubs away from Wheeler? Perhaps his injury history. Wheeler’s a former Tommy John surgery patient who missed all of 2015-16 and a large portion of ’17, though he has come back strong since. He combined for 377 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP ball from 2018-19, during which he was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters.
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Age: 34 in December
MLBTR projection: Three years, $75MM
- Age could be a problem for Donaldson, easily the oldest player left on this offseason’s qualifying offer market. He’s also not far from a couple injury-shortened seasons (2017-18) with the Blue Jays and Indians. To his credit, though, Donaldson was outstanding during a return to health in 2019. In his first and possibly lone season with the Braves, he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs over 659 plate appearances. He’s now the second-best free-agent third baseman in a group that also includes Rendon and Mike Moustakas.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
MLBTR projection: Four years, $72MM
- Bumgarner, known for his postseason exploits and his long run atop the Giants’ rotation, put injury-limited 2017-18 seasons behind him this year to fire 207 2/3 innings with 8.8 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9. Those are front-of-the-rotation numbers, though the 3.90 ERA/FIP and 4.31 xFIP Bumgarner put up indicate he’s more of a No. 3-type starter nowadays. There’s nothing wrong with that, and judging by the early interest in Bumgarner in free agency, it appears he’ll be fine.
Marcell Ozuna, OF
Age: 29
MLBTR projection: Three years, $45MM
- Ozuna’s the youngest player here, but he also looks like the least desirable. Although he typically offered above-average production in each season since he debuted in 2013, only once – in 2017 – has Ozuna recorded star-caliber numbers. He’s now coming off a year in which he slashed .243/.330/.474 (good for a decent but unspectacular 110 wRC+) with 29 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 2.6 fWAR across 549 trips to the plate. Does that type of output merit a large contract and draft compensation? We’ll see. It shouldn’t help Ozuna’s cause that there’s a similarly valuable free-agent corner outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos, who’s not saddled with a QO.
(Poll link for app users)
Which free agent's most likely to get hurt by the QO?
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Ozuna 53% (4,528)
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Donaldson 18% (1,521)
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Bumgarner 14% (1,177)
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Wheeler 10% (817)
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More than one (specify in comments) 5% (449)
Total votes: 8,492
MLBTR Poll: Marcus Semien’s Long-Term Future
Marcus Semien emerged as a true star in 2019. He slashed .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home park (137 wRC+). Semien’s walk rate spiked to a career-high 11.6%, he cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 13.7%, and easily set career marks in every power metric. The baseball traveling further than ever certainly helped, but Semien also set new career highs in hard contact rate and average exit velocity.
He was also as reliable as they come for manager Bob Melvin. Semien started 161 games at shortstop and rated as one of the league’s most valuable defenders, reaping the rewards of an elite work ethic which the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chronicled in June. Those well-rounded contributions (he was worth 7.6 fWAR, fifth-most in MLB) have Semien alongside Mike Trout and Alex Bregman as finalists for the AL MVP award.
This offseason, though, could present an interesting question for A’s president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst. Semien has 5.118 years of MLB service, meaning he’s entering his final season of team control. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Semien to land a $13.5MM salary in arbitration this offseason. That’s a huge bargain for the production Semien brings to the table, even if one is skeptical he’ll maintain his superstar level numbers next season. That said, it’s not inconsequential for an A’s team that ended last season with a $94MM payroll, per Roster Resource, but is currently projected to exceed $111MM in 2020. A big class of potential non-tenders, as explored by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne in his A’s Offseason Outlook, will surely cut that number down, but Oakland doesn’t figure to have a ton of financial flexibility this offseason.
That could lead to some speculation about Semien’s long-term future. By all accounts, player and organization remain extremely fond of one another, but at last look, there seemed to be little movement on extension talks. That’s not to say the sides will give up on hammering out a long-term agreement, but one coming together seems unlikely. After all, the 29-year-old has little financial incentive to give a hometown discount (and it would truly be a hometown discount, as Semien is from the Bay Area and attended college at UC Berkeley) being so close to free agency. The A’s, of course, aren’t typically ones to top the market on star players.
While Oakland no doubt hopes to contend in 2020, the AL West will be formidable. The Astros will again be heavy favorites coming off a 107-win season, and the Angels are widely expected to pursue the market’s top free agent starters. Perhaps the time is right for the A’s to gauge Semien’s value on the trade market, particularly if they don’t anticipate coming to an agreement on an extension. A Semien trade would be unpopular among A’s fans, but it wouldn’t be the first time Oakland traded a star player in his prime.
Assuming Semien doesn’t settle for less than he’s worth on the open market to stay in Oakland, how should the A’s proceed? Get a deal done with Semien at all costs and build around a likable, hometown star? Make the unpopular move to send him away after he’s fully blossomed, but perhaps at peak value? Or play it out, make a run for a third straight postseason appearance and recoup a compensatory draft pick if/when Semien leaves in free agency?
(poll link for app users, answer choices in random order)
How Should The A's Proceed With Marcus Semien?
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Get an extension done, even if it costs market value. 37% (2,746)
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Trade him this offseason. 32% (2,413)
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Continue going year-by-year via arbitration. 31% (2,315)
Total votes: 7,474