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MLBTR Poll: National League Divisional Races

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Has this season flown by for anyone else? It may be hard to believe, but there are just over two weeks left in the regular season. That means it’s crunch time in some cases, with much of the focus landing on two National League divisions.

Were it not for the Nationals’ season-long mediocrity and the Phillies’ recent stumbles, the NL East might still be in play. But with a 7.5 game cushion, only a total calamity will keep the Braves from the crown now.

Things are much tighter in the other two groupings. Six teams are still heavily involved in both the divisional and Wild Card races.

True, the Diamondbacks are at risk of falling all the way out of reasonable contention. And the Cardinals are increasingly in a tough spot in the NL Central, though they are in much better shape in the Wild Card picture. But those teams are still not out of things entirely in the divisions, so we’ll include them in our pair of polls.

Which team do you expect to win the NL Central? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Which team do you expect to win the NL West? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Clayton Kershaw’s Next Contract

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The 2018-19 free agent class doesn’t look quite as exciting now as it has promised to at points in the past. Still, it’s a notable assemblage of talent. And at the top of the list of pitchers sits future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.

Of course, that statement comes with some caveats. In particular, Kershaw will need to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his deal. While that once seemed a foregone conclusion, Kershaw has not been quite his vintage self this season — or, in truth, in the campaign prior. With the backdrop of ongoing back problems, there are undeniably some cracks in the armor.

If Kershaw’s recent form has betrayed his mortality, though, it has still also illuminated his ongoing excellence and value. After all, in his 312 1/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, he has compiled a 2.36 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even with the reduction in his velocity and swinging-strike rate on display this year, Kershaw has been among the most effective starters in baseball. And the years of unquestioned dominance that came before still represent an important background factor.

All things considered, there’s not much reason to think that Kershaw can’t beat 2/$65MM in free agency. Whether he reaches the open market could still be in question, to be sure. It’s not hard to imagine a new agreement of some kind with the Los Angeles organization coming together before Kershaw is forced to decide on the opt-out clause (or, if he does exercise it, before qualifying offer decisions are finalized). Then again, he and the team know much more about his medical situation than do the rest of us, so perhaps there’s still some possibility he’ll simply opt into the remainder of the deal.

Regardless of how it comes to pass, Kershaw will presumably end up with a more-or-less market-driven rate of pay, even if a deal comes with the Dodgers before he’s formally a free agent. After all, Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management no doubt have a good idea what they think he’s worth, as does the L.A. front office.

For those of us on the outside looking in, it’s a bit more difficult to gauge. The Dodgers and others will surely be stingy, in particular, with the length of the commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. But the focus here will be on the total cash posted rather than on how many seasons it’ll be spread over. Knowing what we know now, and presuming Kershaw finishes the season at his current trajectory and without any significant new injury issues, which level of total guarantee do you think he’ll sign at?

Looking Ahead To Cole Hamels’ 2019 Option

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When the Cubs traded for Cole Hamels just days prior to the non-waiver deadline, he was largely viewed as a rental. The discrepancy between his performance at Globe Life Park in Arlington (6.41 ERA, 6.16 FIP, 16 of his 23 homers allowed) and his performance on the road (2.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP, seven homers) led to some speculation that he could at the very least make the Cubs think. However, few could’ve predicted this level of dominance to open his stint with the Cubs.

Through 34 innings, Hamels is sporting a masterful 0.79 ERA with a 30-to-8 K/BB ratio, no homers allowed and a 54.2 percent ground-ball rate that would be the best of his career over a full season. The 34-year-old allowed a whopping 44.9 percent hard-contact rate with the Rangers but has seen that mark plummet to 27.9 percent with the Cubs. A sub-1.00 ERA surely isn’t sustainable for the lefty, but fielding-independent metrics — 2.36 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA — all feel he’s very legitimately improved his performance. He’s leaned far more heavily on his fastball, shying away from cutters/two-seamers and (to a lesser extent) his breaking offerings since switching uniforms.

The rapid turnaround considerably enhances the possibility that the Cubs would want to retain Hamels for the 2019 season, though as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports in his latest 10 Degrees column, the finances aren’t exactly straightforward. Per Passan, at the time of the trade, the Rangers agreed to pay the $6MM buyout on Hamels’ option. That money, however, wouldn’t go to the Cubs in the event that Chicago decides to exercise the option. So while some may have previously looked at Hamels as a $14MM decision for the Cubs, it’s a costlier one than that: either let the Rangers buy out the option or pay the full $20MM with no financial assistance from the left-hander’s former team.

It’s a small but dominant sample for Hamels, but if the improvements in his performance are as legitimate as they prove to be, a one-year deal worth $20MM for the Cubs would hardly be a stretch. Chicago already has plenty of starters under control for the 2019 season in Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly and Mike Montgomery, though the front office could conceivably look to dump Chatwood in a swap of bad contracts and/or look at Montgomery and Smyly in long relief/sixth starter roles. Creating that level of depth in the rotation would hardly be a bad thing for the Cubs — especially with so much uncertainty surrounding Darvish, Chatwood and Smyly.

Conversely, if the Cubs opt not to pay Hamels at a premium rate for the 2019 season, the veteran’s free-agent stock will be fascinating to monitor. Much has been made of Hamels already regaining the velocity he appeared to have lost early in the season, and his recent work with the Cubs has potentially set the stage for a multi-year deal in free agency. Even one month ago, that would’ve seemed a long shot at best.

A month ago, Hamels looked like a back-of-the-rotation rental destined for a one-year deal in free agency. Now, the final month of the season and any potential postseason appearances, will prove pivotal for both Hamels and the Cubs in terms of each party’s future — to say nothing of the Rangers, who’d apparently be absolved of a $6MM commitment if Hamels remains with the Cubs.

With the caveat that things can once again change dramatically in a month, let’s see where readers stand on the issue at the moment (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

MLBTR Poll: Potential Landing Spots For Andrew McCutchen

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With the Giants slipping to a distant fourth place in the NL West, the team’s decision to place veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen on waivers yesterday may be the starting point of at least a light, late-August sell-off. Though the San Francisco organization obviously could still pull McCutchen back — particularly in the seemingly unlikely event that the team is still considering making him a qualifying offer — there’s good reason to think that it may decide instead to let him join another club with brighter hopes the rest of the season.

McCutchen is still owed in the neighborhood of $3MM for the remainder of the season — hardly an insignificant amount of money. It’s enough, certainly, to force any team considering a move to think hard about whether the veteran is really a worthwhile upgrade and compelling fit.

Teams weighing whether to make a claim, or to pursue a swap if McCutchen clears waivers, will surely be assessing just what version of the former superstar they’d likely receive. He’s showing less power than ever before but has been a quality on-base threat and above-average overall hitter. Given his diminished all-around capabilities, that’s not a particularly compelling package, though teams will surely also value McCutchen’s leadership attributes.

Notably, though, measures of his batted-ball quality suggest that Cutch is stinging the ball — perhaps making him a candidate to experience some positive regression down the stretch. Some clubs may also believe the power downturn could be righted in part by moving McCutchen to a more hitter-friendly home park.

In any event, the bottom line is that McCutchen is no longer a premium performer who’s good enough to force a fit on any roster. He’s playing at about a 2 WAR annual pace this season (per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference), so even a Statcast-believing optimist would closely consider fit and value.

Here are a few organizations that make some amount of sense at a glance. (Links to Roster Resource depth charts; teams presented in alphabetical order.)

  • Astros: Suddenly engaged in a divisional dogfight, the defending World Series champs are no doubt looking for ways to get better in the final days of August. Whether McCutchen is the optimal target is certainly debatable, but the corner outfield mix is heavy on left-handed hitters (Josh Reddick, Tony Kemp, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher) and a switch-hitter (Marwin Gonzalez) who is better against right-handed pitching.
  • Athletics: Having surged into a first-place tie with the aforementioned Houston club, the A’s are surely perusing the wire for possibilities. Though the focus is on pitching, McCutchen would be a fairly clean fit on this roster. While youth has carried the club to this point, there are some questions surrounding some of the right-handed-hitting elements of the current outfield mix. In particular, Mark Canha has had a tough three-week stretch while Ramon Laureno was scuffling before a two-dinger outing last night. While the A’s would perhaps prefer to add a true center fielder, it’s hardly clear that there’s one to be found on this market.
  • Braves: McCutchen would be an improved version of the recently-acquired Adam Duvall, who has struggled badly since arriving in Atlanta but could still be optioned. It’s not exactly a pressing need, but might be an interesting way to provide a boost for a club that still has work to do to secure a surprising division title.
  • Cubs: With the offense sagging a bit of late, the Cubbies are no doubt at least considering a lineup infusion. Adding McCutchen would create some additional matchup possibilities in the outfield while perhaps freeing the club to reduce the role of struggling shortstop Addison Russell. Of course, the Cubs may also feel it’d unnecessarily clog their roster to add another righty corner bat with Kris Bryant hopefully nearing a return and the surprising David Bote still available.
  • Indians: As recently-acquired outfielder Leonys Martin battles a serious health issue, the Indians have had to go back to the drawing board to boost their outfield mix and improve their overall offensive profile in advance of the playoffs. The club is said to have pursued Adam Jones, another former up-the-middle superstar who’s still respected but is now best suited to playing the corner outfield and is no longer quite as compelling a presence at the plate. McCutchen is arguably a better target, and unlike Jones does not have no-trade protection.
  • Mariners: The Seattle org already picked up a right-handed outfield bat in Cameron Maybin, but he’s struggling. McCutchen wouldn’t likely represent an option in center, but perhaps the club could utilize him as part of the corner mix while bumping Dee Gordon back into the outfield and deploying Robinson Cano more regularly at second base. While the M’s continue to outperform expectations, they are looking at a tough path to the postseason and need to squeeze out every bit of value they can down the stretch if they hope to qualify.
  • Phillies: The Phils reportedly also chased Jones. As explained above, then, Cutch also seems a reasonable target. He’d likely take the lion’s share of time in right field in Philadelphia while adding another sturdy clubhouse asset to a mostly youthful team.
  • Rockies: The Colorado organization is right in the thick of things. But its outfield mix hasn’t been a strength. More importantly, it is overloaded with left-handed hitters. Adding a veteran righty bat would make lots of sense. And bringing in such a high-profile player would surely generate loads of interest in Colorado.
  • Yankees: The Yanks are showing patience as Aaron Judge heals up, as they seem destined for a Wild Card game barring a near-unfathomable swing in either direction. Still, the club has to be considering some lineup boosts. Adding McCutchen could be viewed as part of a plan to shift some players around and reduce the role of first baseman Greg Bird, though perhaps there are better ways to accomplish that.

So, which do you think is likeliest to land McCutchen? (Link for app users.)

Poll: How Should MLB Punish Jose Urena?

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Marlins righty Jose Urena was the talk of the league last night, although not for reasons the organization would prefer. Urena was ejected after hitting red-hot Ronald Acuna on the elbow with a 97.5mph fastball — the hardest pitch he’s ever thrown, per Statcast — on the game’s first pitch. Acuna had led off three consecutive games with a home run. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan was among the many pundits who’ve excoriated Urena for his actions, calling them “cowardly” and imploring Major League Baseball to issue a suspension longer than the standard five games for Urena.

Intent, of course, is difficult to prove. However, it’s perhaps telling that Miami manager Don Mattingly seemed to acknowledge some disappointment in his right-hander. Via MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro:

“What we said with Jose is, ’I don’t want to see this kid get hit.’ He’s a great player,” said Mattingly of his talk with Urena after the ejection. “…For us, he’s beat us up, but this is not the way we want to handle that situation. Obviously, this is not something that we represent or believe in as an organization or myself, too. I would never want that kid getting hit and cause that kind of problem.”

Mattingly did tell reporters that Urena claimed to have only been trying to run a pitch inside on Acuna rather than hit him (per the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer, whose column also has quotes from Urena), but the manager also spoke on multiple occasions about the need for Marlins players to be cognizant of how the organization wants to be represented moving forward.

Frankly, it’s difficult to side with or defend Urena. There’s a difference between throwing inside and uncoiling at max velocity with an intent to hit a batter, and it appears that Urena chose to do the latter in response to Acuna’s torrid series at the plate. There will always be traditionalists who extol the game’s “unwritten” (and outdated) rules and point to the fact that these incidents have been a part of baseball for decades. But “that’s the way it’s always been done” isn’t a good defense in most walks of life, and the game has clearly evolved.

Urena’s actions didn’t help his team; to the contrary, an already-overtaxed Marlins bullpen had to cover a complete game upon his ejection, and the Braves went on to complete a four-game sweep while Urena watched from the sidelines. And to those who might think that Urena’s teammates appreciate him making a statement, the Marlins’ best player, J.T. Realmuto, said after the game (via Frisaro) that hitting Acuna “worked out terrible for our team.” Realmuto pointed to Miami’s overworked relief corps and plainly suggested that the team could’ve used six or seven innings out of Urena.

Initial x-rays on Acuna, meanwhile, were thankfully negative (Twitter link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution), but he’s still set to undergo a CT scan to further clarify the status of his elbow. Even if he avoids major injury, though, it seems quite likely that the league will bring forth a suspension against Urena, in accordance with previous situations where the intent of the pitcher has been fairly plain to see.

A five-game ban for a starting pitcher has been standard operating procedure in these instances, though it’s clear that such punishments haven’t completely dissuaded pitchers from intentionally plunking opponents. Perhaps they never will, but there’s an argument to be made that steeper penalties ought to be put into place in an effort to at least lessen the likelihood of a recurrence. Even if Acuna is back in the lineup tonight, he’ll be in there after perhaps avoiding a serious injury by a matter of millimeters. Should it really take a serious injury to one of MLB’s most exciting young players to invoke change, or have we reached the point where a more proactive approach should be taken? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Chris Archer Trade

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If it seems that Chris Archer has been in trade rumors for years, that’s because he has. We’ve seen his name presented for quite some time as a top potential target for teams seeking young, affordable starting pitching. That happened again this summer, though it was far from clear in the run-up to yesterday’s deadline whether he’d be traded.

When the dust settled, Archer was finally on the move — and to something of a surprise destination. He’s heading to the Pirates in a deal that sends outfield prospect Austin Meadows, righty Tyler Glasnow, and a still-unknown player to be named later. Until we know the final piece of the deal, it’s a bit difficult to assess it fully, but indications are that it’s another asset of significant value.

For the Rays, it’s a familiar type of swap, though they’ve typically waited until free agency was a bit closer to ship out pitching assets.  They’ll get three highly controllable assets in return; Glasnow entered the season with less than a full year of MLB service and Meadows just debuted.

There’s risk in the new Tampa Bay talent, of course. Glasnow has shown a big arm but still hasn’t harnessed it. The Bucs have utilized him as a reliever this year and he’s still issuing 5.5 walks per nine. The upside remains tremendous, though. Meanwhile, Meadows can boast of a top-prospect pedigree and a .292/.327/.468 slash line in his first 49 MLB contests. But he hasn’t hit all that much in the upper minors since the start of the 2017 season and had slid down prospect rankings entering the current campaign.

From an organizational perspective, the Rays are increasingly utilizing hybrid hurlers over 200-inning starters. They could see Glasnow as a great fit for a more flexible role. And Meadows could be a long-term asset in the outfield. Plus, there’s still a bonus piece we don’t know about. And with Archer’s commitment off the books, the budget-conscious Rays have plenty of wiggle room financially.

How do you grade this move for the Rays? (Link for app users.)

Meanwhile, Archer has his own risks. He is plenty affordable, but increasingly expensive ($6.25MM this year, $7.5MM next, with $20MM in options to follow for 2020 and 2021). It has been some time now since his bottom-line results have matched up with the shiny peripherals, and Archer is now closing in on his 30th birthday.

At the same time, the righty is a quality performer even if he’s not a front-line starter. Archer has averaged over 200 innings annually from 2014 through 2017. He’s posting career-best 13.6% swinging-strike rate on the year and seems a good bet at least to improve upon his current 4.31 ERA.

Perhaps Archer isn’t an ace and won’t be enough to help the Bucs complete a drive to the postseason (the odds of which still seem long). Still, there’s an argument to be made that this is a sensible baseball swap for a team that knows well the players it is parting with.

How do you see it? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Land Zach Britton?

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If you haven’t been reading MLBTR for the last few days, let me sum things up: #BrittonWatch is the new #MannyWatch. Want more details on the Orioles’ efforts to trade Zach Britton? Here are your links: today; yesterday; weekend.

If you’ve already read all of that, or don’t want to spend an hour of your time doing so now, the bottom line is that there are loads of plausible suitors. Varying reports suggest one or another team has been more or less aggressive to this point with offers. On the whole, though, there’s no clear indication that a certain club is closing in on an acquisition.

Rather, it seems the Orioles are waiting for someone to come forward with a compelling offer. The Baltimore organization likely feels rather optimistic about the bidding situation. There a broad slate of interest, with nearly every plausible contender mentioned of late as a potential landing spot. Notably, in some cases, getting Britton would also mean keeping him from another a rival.

Despite Britton’s injury history and lack of a recent track record, moreover, his high-powered recent showing has also perhaps separated him by a significant margin from the remainder of the lefty relief market. Assuming the Pirates don’t move Felipe Vazquez, the rest of the possibilities look decidedly less appealing than Britton (at least, a healthy and performing version of him). Zach Duke is probably the next-best rental southpaw, followed by pitchers like Jake Diekman, Jerry Blevins, and Luis Avilan.

So, #BrittonWatch it is, and while he’s the topic of the day, we might as well engage it. We could debate whether Britton is really as valuable a target as the rumors would suggest, but that’ll ultimately come down to individual teams’ scouting assessments. Perhaps we could also take odds and maintain a leaderboard for pursuers, but just because this is happening in Baltimore doesn’t mean it should be treated like the Preakness. Instead, I thought it’d be worthwhile to review briefly each contender’s case for pursuing Britton before polling MLBTR’s readers as to where they think he will end up.

  • Astros: They don’t really need Britton, but then they don’t really need much of anything. Tony Sipp has been quite good, and youngster Cionel Perez is another big arm from the left side, but it doesn’t hurt to bring in another piece to match up with. And there’s broader uncertainty at the back of the ’Stros pen following the demotion of Ken Giles, so Britton’s experience in the ninth could also be a factor. (H/t to MLBTR commenter Mr. MacPhisto for pointing out that I had missed this aspect of the Astros situation.) Perhaps Houston won’t chase the market, but if the organization decides Britton is its top target, then why not?
  • Braves: There’s cause to add elsewhere, to be sure, but the back of the bullpen is arguably the area that the Atlanta organization is most in need. With Arodys Vizcaino out for a while longer, the team can’t just sit back and hope he returns. Especially if it turns out to be too costly to get a quality rotation upgrade, the Braves could really stand to add here. Then again, the club has other left-handed options (including top late-inning arm A.J. Minter), so perhaps if it’s going to cough up precious prospects, it would be better served going after a righty (especially one with future control).
  • Brewers: It’s tough to see this match representing a true priority given the club’s rotation concerns. Plus, Josh Hader is something like a multi-inning version of peak Britton, while Dan Jennings has been a useful match-up option. Then again, perhaps the Milwaukee organization sees some potential for deepening its relief mix in a manner that will take pressure off of the starting staff.
  • Cubs: The Brew Crew’s chief immediate rival faces a generally similar situation. In this case, though, getting better from the left side in the pen is of much greater concern. Both Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing have handed out walks like candy, and though Randy Rosario owns a 2.03 ERA, he has also managed just 17 strikeouts against 14 walks in his 31 frames.
  • Diamondbacks: Left-handed relief help isn’t an obvious need. Andrew Chafin has been quite good and T.J. McFarland is getting grounders like he’s Britton while cutting down opposing lefties at will (though he’s also averaging just 4.7 K/9). That said, if the team simply wants to get another quality arm into its relief unit, it could see an opportunity to replace Jorge De La Rosa.
  • Dodgers: Luxury tax considerations make this a tough fit, perhaps, and there may not be a ton of urgency with Tony Cingrani set to return and a trio of southpaws already on the active roster. That said, these teams have already proven they can line up on a major deal this summer and the Dodgers may feel the pen is the best remaining area to improve.
  • Giants: The CBA tax factors even larger here, but the San Francisco organization has shown itself willing to give up some young talent to shed salary, so there’s no reason it wouldn’t at least consider upping its offer if the O’s are willing to keep some of Britton’s hefty obligation. Of course, there are plenty of southpaw options already on hand for the Giants, and it seems they are in need of more than a finishing piece if they are to stay in the hunt down the stretch.
  • Phillies: Money isn’t a problem for the Phils. Improving the late-inning mix, especially from the left side, definitely looks like a need. Though Austin Davis has opened some eyes with a strong debut thus far, he’s still green. Lefty specialist Adam Morgan has been solid, but hardly dominant, against opposing southpaws and has been knocked around by righties.
  • Red Sox: The Boston roster is flat-out dominating right now, and certainly doesn’t need a closer. But there’s said to be an interest in adding a significant arm to the back of the pen and it stands to reason that the club will target a southpaw. Vazquez might be a dream get for the Sox, as he’d represent a future closing option when Craig Kimbrel leaves, but otherwise it’s not hard to imagine the club focusing on Britton. (The Orioles, of course, would likely want to leave talks with retribution for having sent Eduardo Rodriguez to the Sox for Andrew Miller years back.)
  • Rockies: While the Rockies already invested quite a lot of their resources into the bullpen, the results haven’t been there, especially from the lefties. Jake McGee and Chris Rusin have struggled; Mike Dunn is on the shelf after a very rough start. It’d hurt to pour yet more into the relief unit, but there’s an argument that it’s a primary need for this ballclub.
  • Yankees: The rotation is clearly the area to target for the Yanks, who now have a big gap to make up in the division. But the acquisitions likely won’t stop there. Chasen Shreve has been bombed by lefties thus far (.255/.368/.574), and top southpaw Aroldis Chapman functions as a closer rather than a setup man, so it’s sensible to think the New York organization will seek an upgrade. Funds will be a consideration, at least, given the club’s other needs and the luxury tax line.

So, which team do you think is most likely to land Britton? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Next-Best Rental Player

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You didn’t need to check our ranking of the 75 top trade deadline candidates to know that (former?) Orioles star Manny Machado was the best rental player on the market this summer. He’s an immensely talented, mid-prime player, the likes of which are rarely seen on the block this time of year.

Admittedly, though, deciding how to fill in that list behind Machado was not easy. The most valuable remaining potential trade candidates are those who come with future contract rights, making them less than likely to end up on the move. As for the remaining rental players, let’s just say they all have some demerits. Given the difficulties I had in deciding just how to rank the next-best players who’ll be dealt for only a few months of service, I thought it would be interesting to pose the same basic dilemma I faced to the MLBTR readership.

Note that I’m including Cole Hamels ($6MM buyout on a $20MM club option), Mike Moustakas ($1MM buyout on $15MM mutual option), and Joakim Soria ($1MM buyout on $10MM mutual option) in the poll despite the fact that all come with some future contractual considerations. While not technically rentals, these players will mostly be treated that way by the market. The mutual options are quite unlikely to come into play, in particular. While the Hamels situation is more complicated, it seems to me he should be considered alongside these other starting pitching options.

If you want my thoughts on the players in question, check out the blurbs in the rankings post linked to above. Which do you think is the best asset from this group? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Biggest First-Half Surprise In Standings

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With the All-Star break at hand, we’ve already completed that portion of the season often referred to as “the first half.” That’s a demonstrably poor choice of phrasing, given that teams played their 81st games weeks ago, but we’ll roll with it. The break offers a chance to take a breath and take stock. It offers a moment to gain perspective, just before the trade deadline period gets underway in earnest and the postseason races truly heat up.

So, it seems an opportune moment to look back at some of the results we’ve seen to this point of the season. We’ll focus here on team-level results, rather than unexpected outcomes for individual players, though of course the two are often intertwined.

  • Densely packed NL West: Okay, this isn’t outwardly the most exciting choice. But it’s rather interesting to see that the phenomenon we observed at the start of June — a densely packed division race — has persisted to the cusp of the deadline. The Dodgers were supposed to run away with things, but simply have not. That means that all the teams involved (that is, the Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, and Giants) will need to treat the summer trade period as one that could make the difference between claiming or falling short of a division title.
  • Historically bad Orioles & Royals: I’m sure there’ll be some who’ll laugh at the idea that this is a surprise. But both teams made reasonably significant MLB investments over the winter in hopes of contending or, at least, remaining reasonably competitive. Instead, they both enter the break with sub-.300 winning percentages. In the post-war era, only three teams have finished a season winning less than three of every ten games. What’s scary is that both the Baltimore and Kansas City rosters will likely only get worse over the next few weeks.
  • Upside-down NL East: The Phillies and Braves have risen somewhat earlier than expected, just as the Nationals hit a few rough patches. This race could be a fascinating one to watch, particularly if the Philadelphia and Atlanta organizations decide to make aggressive mid-season additions and/or promotions.
  • Miserable Mets: The overall picture in the NL East is all the more surprising when you throw in the fact that the Mets have collapsed to the point that they have less wins to this point than the Marlins, despite those two organizations’ divergent offseason approaches. Another rental sell-off is inevitable. It’s still anyone’s guess whether the front office troika will end up overseeing a more significant sell-off.
  • Dominant Red Sox: It’s not at all surprising that the Boston organization is winning a lot of ballgames. But this club has stood out even against the other top teams in the league, entering the break 4.5 games ahead of the paces of the Yankees and Astros. The Red Sox have 68 wins, while no National League club has more than 55.
  • Upper middle class M’s & A’s: The stratification of the American League is a notable development in its own right. While many anticipated some super-team formations around the game, it really hasn’t worked out that way at all in the N.L. As interesting as the wide gulf itself, perhaps, is the fact that the Mariners and (especially) the Athletics find themselves on the “well over .500” side. Both entered the season with real hopes of fielding winning rosters, true, but it’s tough to imagine that either organization realistically expected to be 19 (M’s) or even 13 (A’s) games over .500 come mid-July.

Poll response order has been randomized. Link for app users.

Poll: Which Team Will Land Manny Machado?

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The recent indication is that trade chatter on Orioles star Manny Machado has picked up of late. Of even greater note is the fact that the team evidently is interested in completing an early deal for its best player, rather than waiting until the deadline itself.

It seems, then, that there’s a real possibility of a deal coming together in the coming days — perhaps even tomorrow, on Machado’s 26th birthday — though the O’s could certainly still decide to wait if offers aren’t yet to their liking. The early movement itself is notable, as the broader market situation could be quite a bit different in a few weeks’ time.

The evident pace of negotiations does not necessarily indicate that one or another team is a favorite. Indeed, as discussed in the above link, there are still quite a few organizations — some identified, some perhaps not — that are engaged to some extent on Machado.

Let’s run through some of the top possibilities on paper (in alphabetical order) before assessing the market in a poll …

  • Athletics: The A’s could stand to upgrade over Marcus Semien at short, but face a tough road to the postseason and may not be eager to pay up for a rental. There’s no indication that the Oakland org has been involved in talks to this point. It’s quite a longshot, though it warrants a mention given the on-paper fit and good play of late from the A’s.
  • Braves: While the focus has long been on third base, there’s arguably a greater need at short. Johan Camargo has out-hit Dansby Swanson, after all. Regardless, an addition on the left side of the infield would deepen the overall mix. With the Braves continuing to pace the NL East, an immediate postseason push no longer seems overly hopeful at all.
  • Brewers: The middle infield has been a problem all year for an otherwise strong Brewers club. While there’s an equally strong argument for pursuit of a starter, the Milwaukee organization could potentially reap huge benefits from a major upgrade at short. And every win will matter in the NL Central race.
  • Cardinals: The team is loaded with useful infielders, but could still benefit by adding a star and shuffling some other roster pieces. If the St. Louis organization hopes to keep pace with its division rivals — discussed immediately above and below — it may take a bold strike.
  • Cubs: This match made more sense before Addison Russell started turning things on at the plate. It’d be a bit of a surprise at this point if the Cubbies beat the market for Machado with arguably greater needs elsewhere, though they can’t be counted out for a bold move for a rental after the 2016 acquisition of Aroldis Chapman.
  • Diamondbacks: Perhaps no other organization has been tied as strongly to Machado as the D-Backs, who benefited greatly last year from the mid-season addition of J.D. Martinez and are now trying to hold off rivals in a tightly-packed NL West. The offensive production from the 4 through 6 positions in Arizona has been lacking, so it’s easy to see the reason for the interest.
  • Dodgers: When Corey Seager went down for the year, speculation turned immediately to the possibility of a move for Machado. But with Chris Taylor stepping in at short and blazing hot bats up and down the lineup, it’s not clear that Machado would really be the most sensible player to pursue.
  • Indians: The Cleveland organization finds itself in an interesting spot with the division all but in hand but also plenty of holes that could be filled. Adding Machado to play third would mean moving Jose Ramirez to second and Jason Kipnis into the outfield mix. But Machado is not a cheap player, even for a half-season rental. And adding him would likely mean doing less to address struggles in the outfield and bullpen.
  • Phillies: One of the clear favorites to land Machado as a free agent, the Phils also look like a prime destination for him in trade. The left-side combo of Scott Kingery, Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford has been a dud in 2018. While there’s likely still hope for some of those players to shake out in the future, a move for Machado would come with the promise of huge near-term impact.
  • Red Sox: While they aren’t interested in parting with or giving up on Rafael Devers, the Red Sox could still see Machado as a near-term upgrade at third. There’s no solid indication that this is a distinct possibility, but a bold strike of this ilk can’t be ruled out given the classic AL East battle that’s shaping up.
  • Yankees: The same basic reasoning supports involvement from the Yankees, though frankly there’s much less cause for the New York organization to make Machado its prime deadline target. Starting pitching remains the obvious focus, but perhaps the recent injury to Gleyber Torres — which isn’t believed to be serious, but has already driven him to the DL — provides a bit of daylight to consider a strike for Machado.

So, where do you think Machado is most likely to go? (Link for app users.)

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