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MLBTR Poll: NL Central Hierarchy

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When the offseason kicked off, the National League East’s flurry of moves spotlit the four-team race between the Nationals, Braves, Mets and Phillies as a premier event of the 2019 season. Since then, the National League Central has drummed up quite the competition of their own. PECOTA projections for the 2019 season recently surprised many by dropping the Cubs all the way to last place with a projected record of 79-83. The Brewers are pegged to win 88 games, 85 for the Cardinals, 81 for the Reds and 80 for the Pirates, the takeaway here being that there are five competitive clubs with a shot to win the NL Central. Last year the division gave us a three-team race between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers that ended in thrilling fashion. After flirting with the division lead for most of two seasons. the Brew Crew finally caught the Cubs and took the NL Central crown in a one-game playoff. The Brewers are the new kings of the Central, but clocks reset and everyone starts from zero on Opening Day, when the race begins anew.

Not only did the Brewers win the Central in 2018, but they’re on the shortlist for winners of the winter. By adding Yasmani Grandal on a one-year deal, bringing back Mike Moustakas and adding another shifty left-hander to the bullpen in Alex Claudio, the Brewers are going for the kill.  They still don’t have a bonafide ace, but they didn’t last year either and the staff is deep. Besides, they have reigning MVP Christian Yelich leading a hungry group that’s gotten better every year under Craig Counsell en route to their NLCS loss to the Dodgers. The young Cubs lost the 2015 NLCS and came back to win it all the next season – the Brewers very well could do the same.

The Cubs still won 95 games, and they are returning close to the same club for 2019. They added around edges with Brad Brach and Xavier Cedeno in the bullpen mix and Daniel Descalso taking over David Ross’ empty seat as spirit of the clubhouse. Otherwise, they kept Cole Hamels around for $20MM, they kept Addison Russell around despite his suspension, but all of a sudden the kingpin of the central has been pronounced dead upon impact. Of course, the frightening amalgamate known as Bryzzo is a proven foundation, and if Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo return to form and stay healthy, the first-place Cubs may yet live again.

The Cardinals machine kept pumping in 2018 en route to 88 wins, and they’ve added perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Matt Carpenter will be hitting leadoff for them again, Yadier Molina remains entrenched behind the plate, and they have a slew of young arms ready to make an impact for the major league club. Question marks surround their most-trusted veteran arms as Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have to prove they’re healthy enough to contribute. Mike Shildt is getting rave reviews for the impact he has had on this ballclub, and in his first full season as skipper, a division title is very much in reach so long as they stick to the Cardinal Way.

In recent seasons, that’s where the conversation has ended – but not this year. The Reds remain a distant fourth for the time being, but for the first time in a long time they made significant upgrades to their starting staff with Alex Wood, Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark. The offense should continue to mash in Great American Ballpark, and there’s some real excitement around this team. Top prospect Nick Senzel may break camp as, suddenly, a centerfielder, but even if he doesn’t, Yasiel Puig is more than happy to stall for time and entertain the crowds in Cincy until Senzel is ready. If nothing else, the Reds are definitely a better team than in 2018, and they’re fun.

The Pirates are the sleeper here, which is a kind way of saying they’re likeliest to land in the cellar. They’ve been mostly forgotten in a winter without a significant free agent acquisition, but they have made changes. Their middle infield plays for the Tigers now, and the new duo of Adam Frazier and Erik Gonzalez don’t have to do a ton to match the production from Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, who combined for only 0.4 rWAR while missing significant chunks of time. GM Neil Huntington’s major additions came last July with Chris Archer and Keone Kela, and this team was better than most of us remember in 2018, finishing with 82 wins. If Archer finds his top form and Jameson Taillon takes a step forward in his development, the Pirates might surprise us.

Maybe the Cubs will surprise everyone and sign Bryce Harper tomorrow, but more than likely these teams are who they are for the beginning of 2019. PECOTA has the Brewers at the top with the other four not far behind. What say you?

Link for app users.

MLBTR Poll: The Manny Machado Signing

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We all knew it would happen at some point, yet somehow it came as a surprise when Manny Machado finally reached agreement on a monster free agent contract. After months of hand-wringing over how much he’d take down, Machado secured a hefty ten-year, $300MM commitment — albeit from a rather unexpected place.

Here at MLBTR, we actually predicted that Machado would secure an even lengthier deal at that $30MM AAV. The bidding frenzy we foresaw never quite developed, as several larger-market clubs stayed on the sideline, but there was still sufficient interest to produce the first-ever $300MM free agent contract.

First question (link for app users):

For the Padres, the move brings in a youthful superstar just ahead of the anticipated crest of a wave of internally developed talent. Machado will be on the books for at least five seasons — he’ll have an opt-out opportunity after his age-30 campaign — and could help open a lengthy contention window. Of course, there’s also risk aplenty in a signing of this magnitude, particularly for an organization that doesn’t have immense payroll capacity and has already placed two larger deals on its books (Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer).

Second question (link for app users):

As noted above, we anticipated entering the winter that a few more bidders would play major roles in the proceedings. Phillies GM Matt Klentak suggested that strict, emotion-less valuations kept his team from increasing its bid. The Yankees seemingly remained on the periphery, seemingly operating with an even tighter grip on their own payroll space. And that was about it … except for the White Sox. The South Siders were obviously all-in on Machado, pulling out all the stops to make an attractive landing spot and putting up a big offer that included more earning upside (but a smaller guarantee) than the one he ultimately took. In the wake of Machado’s decision, the club’s top execs expressed no small amount of disappointment yesterday at missing on him.

Third question (link for app users):

Poll: Grading The J.T. Realmuto Trade

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After several months of nonstop rumors centering on J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins finally found an offer to their liking for the superstar catcher Thursday, when they dealt him to the NL East rival Phillies. Entering the offseason, it seemed inevitable the rebuilding Marlins would part with Realmuto, who made it clear on multiple occasions going back to last winter that he was uninterested in signing an extension with the club.

At times this offseason, Realmuto drew interest from nearly half the league (14 teams), and with such a vast market for his services, Miami spent the past few months holding out for a Godfather offer from one of those clubs. In the end, the Marlins accepted a three-player return consisting of major league catcher Jorge Alfaro, who will immediately replace Realmuto in their starting lineup, two pitching prospects (right-hander Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart) and $250K in international slot money.

For the Phillies, the Realmuto acquisition is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. Coming off their seventh straight non-playoff season and sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Phillies are aiming to push for a playoff spot in 2019 with newcomers Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly Bryce Harper or Manny Machado helping lead the way. And Realmuto – who was the undisputed premier catcher in the game last year – will help their cause beyond the upcoming campaign, as he’s controllable through 2020.

For the Marlins, the Realmuto trade is the latest win-later move dating back to last winter, when the low-budget club traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon for futures. In Alfaro, they received a player who showed a penchant for striking out and little ability to walk from 2017-18, his first two seasons of extensive major league action. But Alfaro was nonetheless respectable at the plate during that span, and the cannon-armed 25-year-old is fresh off a season in which he earned raves from defensive metrics. To this point, then, Alfaro has been a satisfactory pro. However, whether Alfaro will continue to serve as an acceptable starter or fall backward could hinge on improving his high-strikeout, low-walk ways, especially considering he won’t keep running a career .405 batting average on balls in play.

While Alfaro’s the only current major leaguer Miami got for Realmuto, Sanchez looks like the biggest prize. Despite the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder’s diminutive stature, each of FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law rank Sanchez between fifth and 35th on their list of the majors’ top prospects. All of those outlets and individuals agree the flamethrowing Sanchez has the upside of a front-line rotation piece, and at 20 years old, he’ll  breathe new life into the Marlins’ farm system. Although Sanchez hasn’t pitched above the High-A level yet, once he gets to Miami, he could emerge as its best starter since the Jose Fernandez era came to a tragic conclusion in 2016.

Stewart, 21, is far less intriguing than Sanchez, with MLB.com ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 25 prospect. Whereas Sanchez is a potential No. 1 starter who possesses electrifying velocity, MLB.com regards Stewart as a possible back-end type whose velocity is “average.” To Stewart’s credit, though, he did post tremendous results last year at the Single-A level, where he logged a 2.06 ERA with 7.13 K/9, 1.66 BB/9 and a 62.1 percent groundball rate, mimicking the best version of Dallas Keuchel in that regard.

With Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and a bit more international spending room in tow, there’s plenty for Miami to dream on going forward. The Phillies, meanwhile, made a substantial near-term upgrade behind the plate, albeit one that cost them their previous No. 1 prospect and another promising hurler. In your estimation, how did the two teams fare in this swap? Cast your votes below…

(Phillies poll link for app users; Marlins poll link for app users)

Poll: Marwin Gonzalez’s Payday

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29-year-old Marwin Gonzalez – he’ll be 30 by Opening Day – entered the offseason primed to a secure healthy payday from one of perhaps two dozen interested suitors around the league. Armed with gloves to play six positions, an incredibly goofy nickname christened by superagent Scott Boras, and the whiff of 2017’s 4.0 fWAR breakout still detectable to the sharpest of senses, Gonzalez’s camp has touted the longtime Astro as the right-sized plug to fill almost any hole.

But the market surrounding the Venezuelan-born infielder/outfielder, to this point in the offseason, has been exceedingly quiet – muzzled, even. The Braves, Padres, and Astros have all been connected to Gonzalez at various hot-stove junctures, though none seem particularly aggressive. Other teams, like the oft-linked Brewers and Cubs, or the MLBTR-projected Twins, seem to have no interest at all. Is the tepidity a product of an exorbitant Boras ask, or are teams just not nearly as enamored with “Swiss G” as originally surmised?

Gonzalez, who scuffled through seven minor league seasons before his 2012 debut with the Astros, has turned in a number of solid-to-good offensive seasons in the majors, posting above-league-average marks in four of the last five. His overhauled approach – more walks, fewer balls on the ground – has paid dividends as well, with the aforementioned 2017 breakout (.303/.377/.530) his career high-water mark. While not a multi-positional defensive wizard like Ben Zobrist, Gonzalez has acquitted himself well all across the diamond, and could conceivably be a full-time fit at second base, third, or in the corner outfield.

Still, one can’t exactly use a pen when projecting Gonzalez’s forthcoming production.  The best utility men are at least competent at shortstop, and Gonzalez, who’s nearing the age at which range, in both the infield and outfield, declines precipitously, has been dreadful there. The track record, too, is a little light, and Steamer, arguably the standard in baseball’s forecasting industry, projects the utility man to post just 1.3 WAR this season (the number is closer to two when assuming full-time play).

In the free agent freeze of the last two offseasons, it’s the mid-tier player who’s been hurt the worst. Always reluctant to dish out the long term deal, teams now balk at even short-term ones for players whose production can safely be approximated by much cheaper, in-system options. Houston’s Tony Kemp, while probably not an option at shortstop, would seem to fit this bill, as would a number of others on suspected Gonzalez suitors around the league.

Poll: Projecting Luke Voit’s 2019

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Among major leaguers who finished with at least 150 plate appearances in 2018, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout unsurprisingly led the way in wRC+ (191). But who finished second? Was it AL MVP Mookie Betts, NL MVP Christian Yelich or another big-name superstar? No, it was Luke Voit, who put up a 187 wRC+ in 161 PAs divided between the Cardinals and Yankees. Voit took a mere 13 trips to the plate until late July, when New York acquired him from St. Louis for a pair of relievers, and then proceeded to give the first baseman-needy Yankees an answer at the position over the final couple months of the season.

During his first 148 PAs as a Yankee, the burly, boisterous Voit batted a video game-like .322/.398/.671 with a Ruthian ISO (.350) and 15 home runs. And Statcast backed up Voit’s production, ranking the soon-to-be 28-year-old first in barrels per plate appearance and expected weighted on-base average (.437) among those who racked up at least 150 PAs on the season. While Voit benefited from a .365 batting average on balls in play, a number he may not approach again, the Yankees are understandably optimistic he’s good enough to serve as their No. 1 option at first going forward.

This has been an active offseason in the infield for New York, which has signed DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki while showing interest in Manny Machado, but the team has been quiet at first base. Despite Voit’s limited track record, the right-handed slugger’s incredible showing toward the end of 2018 has made him the odds-on favorite to start at first in 2019 for the Yankees, whose previous long-term hope, the lefty-swinging Greg Bird, has fallen short of expectations because of a spate of injuries and less-than-stellar overall production. The Yankees have been bullish on Bird, but he missed all of 2016 because of a shoulder injury, and then produced very little from 2017-18 while dealing with foot problems. His horrific 2018 campaign made it necessary for the World Series-contending Yankees to address first, where they ultimately chose to turn to Voit over the summer.

While it’s still too soon to give up on the 26-year-old Bird, he may not receive regular playing time with the Yankees again unless Voit falls flat. Although Bird was a much better prospect than Voit during their younger days, there’s no doubt the latter has been the superior major leaguer to this point. Consequently, as the Yankees prepare for a championship push, they’ll continue with Voit at first, undoubtedly hoping last season wasn’t a mirage and they’ve acquired a star-caliber hitter for next to nothing.

The Steamer projection system doesn’t expect the 2019 version of Voit to serve as an offensive force, though, as it predicts he’ll wind up with an above-average but hardly world-beating .262/.335/.458 line. That would make for a .793 OPS, far better than what Yankees first basemen managed from 2016-18 but also much less impressive than the production Voit offered during his abbreviated showing last season. Now that he’s the Yankees’ preferred choice at first, how do you expect Voit to perform in 2019?

(link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Nolan Arenado’s Future

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Just one year from reaching free agency, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado may go down among the most coveted players ever to hit the open market – if he does, that is. The chances of Arenado shopping himself around the majors next winter seemingly took a hit Saturday when Rockies owner Dick Monfort expressed optimism about the club’s chances of locking the four-time All-Star up for the long haul.

“I think we’ve gotten it to the point where we’re to the finals. We’re to the crescendo,” Monfort told Thomas Harding of MLB.com in regards to extension talks with Arenado. Monfort added that he’s “comfortable that we can get a number that we can get to” for Arenado, who “wants this to happen as much as we do.”

The Rockies and Arenado have already held at least one meeting this week, during which they hammered out a record-setting, arbitration-avoiding agreement worth $26MM. It seems they also used that summit to discuss a long-term arrangement for Arenado. Regardless, the Rockies will no doubt need to hand Arenado a team-record pact – one that obliterates the $141.5MM guarantee they gave former first baseman Todd Helton in 2001 – to prevent their current franchise player from taking a stab at free agency.

Although they’ve historically been middle of the pack or lower when it comes to spending, the Rockies appear ready to pony up for Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich said in December that the Rockies could afford a $200MM-plus contract for Arenado, and Monfort noted Saturday that revenue from their TV contract – which runs through 2020 – will jump from $20MM per annum to $40MM. That 100 percent increase, not to mention a new TV deal which the Rockies will begin negotiating in the summer, should only help the team’s chances of retaining Arenado.

For his part, Arenado may simply prefer the comfort of Colorado, where he has posted far better offensive numbers than on the road, to dealing with the free-agent process. The market has become increasingly unkind to players over the past couple offseasons, evidenced in part by the fact that in-their-prime superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have been unemployed for three months. Harper and Machado are eventually going to rake in huge contracts, but with fewer suitors than expected, the duo may not do as well as predicted when the winter began. And while Harper hasn’t even played his age-26 season yet and Machado won’t turn 27 until July, Arenado will be on the verge of his age-29 campaign if and when he becomes a free agent.

Despite the age difference between him and the Harper-Machado tandem, Arenado’s certainly paying close attention to their free-agent forays. The more money Harper and Machado receive, the better it will be for Arenado, whose superb all-around track record gives him a strong chance of joining the $200MM club in the next 12 months. The main question is whether he’ll get that money from Colorado or another franchise. How do you expect it to play out?

(link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: The Reds’ Rebuilt Rotation

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The Reds entered this winter determined to boost their club’s performance at the MLB level, even if an anticipated new core hasn’t quite fully come together. On the heels of four-straight campaigns with less than seventy wins and last-place division finishes, it was and is an understandable goal — albeit one that called for careful handling to avoid denting the long-term outlook.

At the top of the docket, without question, was the improvement of a rotation that has been the game’s worst over that approximate span. While the team has ended up adding two outfielders with major name recognition — Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig — they don’t really change the overall complexion of the position-player unit. The Reds had a middle-of-the-pack lineup and bullpen in 2018. Perhaps there’s some hope that either or both of those groups (the former, particularly) will improve in the season to come. But the rotation was the major impediment, and there’s little doubting that the quality of the newly rebuilt pitching staff will have a huge say in the club’s outlook in a division that promises to feature quite a bit of competition.

When GM Nick Krall said recently that this’ll be the “best rotation we’ve had in five years,” he wasn’t exactly staking out a bold position. The standard isn’t terribly lofty. If the Cincy outfit wishes to compete, though, it’ll need to do more than just top its abysmal recent starting rotation work.

Let’s take a quick snapshot of where things stand now in the starting five, beginning with the newly hired guns:

  • Sonny Gray: The most recently-acquired of the team’s three new hurlers is also the one who received the biggest commitment. In addition to his preexisting $7.5MM salary for 2019, the Reds are taking on $30.5MM in new money over three years (while also gaining another season of control via option). Though his upside is perhaps easy to exaggerate, as he handily overperformed his peripherals in his best campaigns with the Athletics, Gray seems largely to have the physical skills intact that made him a high-quality, 200+-inning starter in 2014 and 2015.
  • Alex Wood: Long known as a talented but injury-prone pitcher, Wood has mostly provided a good quantity of innings. He showed quite a bit of ceiling upon landing with the Dodgers, but wasn’t quite as sharp last year and exhibited a 2 mph year-over-year velocity decline. Though his salary isn’t yet decided, Wood will check in with a salary between $8.7MM (the team’s filing figure) and $9.65MM (his own) in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
  • Tanner Roark: As with Wood, the former Nationals hurler arrived via trade in advance of his last season of control. Slated to earn an even $10MM, Roark has been longer on innings than results over the past two seasons. But he did spin two outstanding campaigns before that, even if those results weren’t fully supported by the peripherals, and has been an exceptionally durable pitcher since emerging in D.C. Roark seems a good bet to provide a steady volume of at-least good-enough frames for the Cincinnati organization.

The trio joins the following holdovers:

  • Luis Castillo: The sophomore slump  that Castillo experienced didn’t turn out to be all that bad, as he finished with a 4.30 ERA and 8.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 over 169 2/3 innings after turning on the afterburners down the stretch. In his final 11 starts, Castillo spun 66 1/3 frames of 2.44 ERA ball with a 69:14 K/BB ratio. He’s still just 26 years of age and still thrws gas. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Castillo is the likeliest member of the new-look Reds outfit to turn in top-of-the-rotation numbers, and his track record to date suggests he ought to be good at least for a nice volume of solid frmes.
  • Anthony DeSclafani: Maybe we’ll look back at the end of the 2019 season and wonder why we had questions. After all, DeSclafani did show some signs of returning to his prior form in 2018 — it’s just that they were obfuscated by a barrage of long balls (1.88 per nine; 19.8% HR/FB rate) that left him with a 4.93 ERA. Still, he managed to tally 115 innings after missing all of the prior season, sported a career-high 94+ average fastball, and matched his career average with a 9.4% swinging-strike rate. True, DeSclafani did surrender loads of hard contact (41.9%), but it seems he has regained much of his physical ability.
  • Tyler Mahle: Long considered a talented hurler, the 24-year-old sputtered in his first full effort at the game’s highest level. With 22 balls leaving the yard in his 112 frames, and a less-than-trim tally of 4.3 BB/9, it’s hardly surprising to see a 4.98 ERA on the final-season ledger. That said, Mahle also ran up 8.8 K/9 on the basis of a 9.9% swinging-strike rate. If any of the above-listed pitchers falters in camp or during the year, whether due to performance or injury issues, Mahle looks to be a nice piece to have on hand.
  • Other depth arms: The remaining potential rotation candidates seem to have little hope of competing for a starting job in camp — barring injury, of course. Still, there are some plausible pieces to work with in Sal Romano, Cody Reed, Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, Keury Mella, and non-roster veteran Odrisamer Despaigne.

Looking at the overall picture, if you focus on established MLB ceiling, there’s a clear path to a quality unit. True, none of the five most accomplished pitchers — Gray, Wood, Roark, Castillo, and DeSclafani — has really ever been a dominant ace. But at their best, every one of these hurlers has had an extended run as at least a high-quality, mid-rotation starter. On the other hand, all five (to say nothing of the other players listed above) have shown their warts in the not-so-distant past. Only Wood finished the 2018 season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

So, how do you view the offseason efforts of the Cincinnati baseball operations unit to cobble together a pitching staff?

MLBTR Poll: Have Teams Become Too Conservative In Free Agency?

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As we approach February of a second straight long-gestating free agent winter, the top two free agents remain curiously unsigned. Rather than drive a bidding war, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s concurrent free agencies have snailed along with only the White Sox and Phillies as definitive suitors. More so than usual, there is a growing sense of discord between the owners and players, steering these economically-opposed-but-conjoined forces towards a potentially destructive labor negotiation in 2021, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

Teams at both ends of the competitive spectrum are contributing to this contentious ecosystem. At one end, bottom feeders like the Orioles, Marlins, and Blue Jays are realizing the long odds of winning their divisions and choosing the judicious (and totally understandable) approach to team building, largely abstaining from free agency. At the same time, there are more than a few teams with wide-open competitive windows who nonetheless remain passive in free agency, citing financial limitations or a need for future flexibility. The competitive balance tax, intended as a punitive fee to help balance the league, has instead become a scapegoat for large market teams to avoid significant free agent spending. Public opinion lands on both sides of the fence, with owners painted as evolving at best and collusive at worst, while the players are viewed, alternatively, as a whiny group of greedy millionaires or a disenfranchised labor force facing an unemployment crisis.

Receiving the brunt of the criticism at present is the Dodgers, back-to-back National League champions whom many expected to make a play for Harper. Despite their reputation as big spenders, however, it’s been quite some time since the Dodgers played the part of spendthrift, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. When they hired former Rays GM Andrew Friedman before the 2015 season, there was excitement over what Friedman could do when given the reins to the Los Angeles machine. What has conspired instead brings to light a whole new question: how much revenue can the Dodgers clear under Friedman’s watchful spending? In theory, they’ve stuck a perfect balance between large market spending and small market creativity, but the reaction hasn’t been quite so laudatory.

For example, in staying true to his ever-creative roster management, Friedman shipped the erratic trio of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood to the attraction-starved Reds for a pair of promising prospects and the remains of Homer Bailey, whom they released. We asked MLBTR readers for your opinion, and 45% thought the Reds won the deal against only 18% who pegged the Dodgers as the winner. There was another 24% who thought the trade was a win-win, but it was an overall underwhelming reaction to a move the Dodgers likely view as a creative means to acquire future assets in return for volatile performers who proffered no future value to the club beyond 2019.

The above trade, combined with their complete lack of interest in Harper and Machado gives the impression of a team disinclined towards large payroll expenditures. Accurate or not, the optics have born itself out in the public reaction – so long as Harper and Machado remain on the market, the cries for ownership to open up their wallets and “do whatever it takes to win” will not cease. And yet, the “throw money at it” approach to problem solving, long en vogue among sports franchise front offices, has gone decidedly out of style.

When pressed about the their lack of interest in Harper, Dodgers president Stan Kasten rejected any idea of frugality on the Dodgers’ part, per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Kasten repeatedly cites attendance numbers to rebuke the idea of fan discontent while also railing against the public invention of false narratives. While that does sound an awful lot like another billionaire using the “fake news” moniker as blanket refutation of public sentiment, it’s worth considering his perspective. On the one hand, the Dodgers are being targeted here not because they’ve made poor decisions, necessarily, but because their market, the current competitive landscape, and traditional expectations of free agency peg them as one of the likeliest overspenders. That they aren’t taking the bait and competing literally at all costs shouldn’t necessarily make them the poster team for the current lack of spending. They did, after all, make the largest cash commitment to a position player thus far this winter.

And yet, with those sky high attendance numbers in tow, it’s certainly possible that the Dodgers are both among the highest-spending franchises in baseball and also among those most at fault for stifling the market. Keep in mind this exploration from Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports, this isn’t simply a Dodger issue – this is a categorical questioning of the fairness, or smartness, or rightness of team spending throughout the league. The Dodgers are the team currently left holding the bag, but the Cubs, Yankees, Giants, Astros, Indians and others could all be accused of underspending, to various degrees. Only the Red Sox and Nationals had the gall (pride? guts? willingness?) to exceed the luxury tax in 2018. Of course, it’s not “crossing the tax line” at issue, it’s that the refusal to engage the free agent market leaves wins on the table. The rigidity with which large market teams are refusing to pay the tax is baffling, especially as more and more GMs attest that there’s no mandate from ownership to do so. The party line in front offices across the league isn’t that ownership won’t pay, it’s that ownership is finally hep to the fact that big contracts means big risk that sometimes turns into a big, constant reminder of ownership’s failings. In Los Angeles, the Angels have the best player in baseball, and the best argument against these monster contracts. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a string of six straight division titles and two straight pennants. It’s easy to understand why Kasten believes in his club’s approach.

Time remains for Harper and Machado to land the types of mega-deals they’re seeking, and they will, no doubt, end up with a sum of money that, out of context, will boggle the mind. But in context, it’s more complicated. See Grandal, Yasmani. Teams are spending less in free agency than they used to and it’s incumbent upon the game’s biggest stars to set the market. Anything less would be a disservice to the players who don’t have the same leverage.

So where do MLBTR readers stand on the state of free agency in 2019? Have teams evolved to the point that’s simply frustrating for players? Are owners valuing revenue over contention in a way that threatens the underlying infrastructure of the sport? Should players readjust their expectations? Or is this the battle that’s worth going to the mattresses?

Even, is this just what a flatter marketplace looks like? With opposing sides taking longer than usual to find a middle ground? Regardless, the debate rages on. What do you think?

Link for app users.

MLBTR Readers’ Mock Hall Of Fame Ballot

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The votes are in, but it remains to be seen who has been elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame. Official results will be revealed this evening. In the meantime, those with interest are left to examine the ballot-counting efforts of Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs). Here’s his updated spreadsheet for reference as to what is publicly known at this time, representing just over half of the total ballots. If you’re interested in what those data points predict, check out this post from Ryan Pollock of The Hardball Times.

While it’s hardly our core area of coverage, we thought we’d get in on the fun and allow our readers a chance to have a quick say as to who ought to be inducted this year. For these purposes, we’ll include only those players who have received more than five percent of the actual tally documented to this point. (That’s also the threshold those players will need to clear to stay on the ballot for another season.) That limits the field a bit, but you’ll have the opportunity to pick as many candidates as you like, whereas BBWAA members are limited to ten selections annually. (Fangraphs recently released the results of its own crowdsourced ballot, unsullied by the ensuing partial release of actual voting results and under conditions much more closely approximating the real thing.)

Here’s the poll, with response order randomized. This is just for fun, of course, but hopefully it’ll still be interesting to see where MLBTR readers land on the story of the day. (Link for app users.)

The poll is now closed. Only two players landed on a high-enough percentage of ballots to crack the 75% barrier:

Mariano Rivera 99.11%
Roy Halladay 76.97%
Edgar Martinez 70.85%
Mike Mussina 55.66%
Barry Bonds 55.07%
Roger Clemens 55.05%
Curt Schilling 43.32%
Fred McGriff 39.45%
Larry Walker 39.12%
Manny Ramirez 27.25%
Todd Helton 23.64%
Omar Vizquel 21.62%
Jeff Kent 21.17%
Billy Wagner 20.80%
Andy Pettitte 18.76%
Andruw Jones 18.72%
Scott Rolen 18.71%
Gary Sheffield 18.46%
Sammy Sosa 15.01%

Poll: How Much Money For Manny?

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As an elite, in-his-prime player, Manny Machado isn’t the type of free agent who comes along very often in Major League Baseball. With that in mind, Machado (and fellow 26-year-old superstar free agent Bryce Harper) no doubt came into the offseason with designs on signing one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted Machado would eclipse Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM extension from 2014. Meanwhile, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Fancred’s Jon Heyman forecast that Machado would earn less than Stanton, but they did peg him to surpass the $275MM guarantee Alex Rodriguez received as a free agent in 2007.

While Machado may still outdo Stanton or at least Rodriguez, his childhood idol, his future earning power looks far less certain two-plus months into his trip to the open market. Free agency has been a surprisingly protracted process for Machado – who, along with Harper – remains available just a few weeks from spring training. And there has been a stunning lack of publicly reported teams after Machado, who counts the White Sox and Phillies among his most ardent suitors. Reports over the past week have indicated the White Sox issued either a seven-year, $175MM offer or an eight-year, $250MM proposal to Machado, either of which would’ve looked like a light guarantee for him at the beginning of the offseason. However, agent Dan Lozano released a strongly worded statement swatting down those rumors and insisting “reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.”

Shortly after Lozano sent his denial to the media, new reports emerged suggesting serious interest in Machado stretches beyond Philadelphia and Chicago. There are supposedly two unnamed teams in the mix for Machado, and one, it seems, has put out the richest offer for the four-time All-Star infielder. Machado is reportedly primed to choose the highest bidder, but it’s unclear how close he is to signing. When the former Oriole and Dodger finally does put pen to paper, though, do you expect him to reel in a record-breaking guarantee?

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