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MLBTR Poll: Is It Time For Nats To Make A Managerial Change?

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You’re amply familiar by now with the narratives surrounding the Nationals’ managerial situation. Four skippers have presided over the past eight seasons, dating back to the team’s breakout 2012 campaign. The drama goes back further, but it’s most remarkable that the Nats have managed not to stick with a single manager for very long even as they’ve churned out winning campaigns.

For all the disappointing seasons and heartbreaking postseason showings, the Nats have arguably never faced a situation as dire as the present one since they began their winning ways. After barely topping .500 last year, the first under manager Dave Martinez, the team has limped to a 14-22 start in 2019.

It wasn’t long ago that the Nationals sat at an uninspiring 11-11 record — just 1.5 games out of first place in a packed division and hardly cause for concern in and of itself. The bullpen was a mess, but otherwise the club was getting along well enough. The vibe has changed since, as the Nats have managed only two wins out of their past 13 contests while injury issues mount. Martinez’s charges have a negative-34 run differential in that brief span. Pitching coach Derek Lilliquist was canned a week ago.

There are many different ways to interpret these results. It’d be foolish to lay all the blame on Martinez; veteran Ryan Zimmerman said as much today in support of the sophomore-year skipper. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has been  unequivocal in his support, saying that Martinez is “doing a great job” in the wake of the Lilliquist firing.

At the same time, it’s hard to deny that the results have fallen well short of expectations since Martinez came aboard. He was hired only after the club parted with Dusty Baker over the failure to advance in the postseason. The premise was that the talented outfit would  thrive all the more under new leadership. For whatever reason, Martinez’s efforts haven’t translated to this point. There are complaints over his bullpen management and strategic decisionmaking, though that’s a common refrain for many managers. Even if Martinez isn’t truly doing a poor job, it’s arguably time for the club to receive a real jolt.

So, readers, where do you come down on the matter? (Link to poll for app users; response order randomized.)

13 Early Contenders For American League Rookie Of The Year

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Before the 2019 season, it was preordained that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would take home the American League Rookie of the Year trophy, and everyone else was just fighting for second place.  That may yet be the case, but eight games into the prodigy’s career, it’s clear he has some catching up to do.  Here’s a look at the top contenders.

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays – The game’s best prospect in years, Guerrero strained an oblique during Spring Training, providing Blue Jays a little bit of cover in their plan to keep him in the minors long enough to gain a seventh year of control.  Just 34 plate appearances into his career, Vlad Jr. is fully expected to rake over the remainder of the season.
  • Eloy Jimenez, White Sox – Jimenez was allowed on Chicago’s Opening Day roster after signing a $43MM contract, and he started to come around at the plate in his final 15 games before suffering an ankle sprain.  He’s close to a rehab assignment and still has plenty of time to demonstrate why he was the typical prediction as the second-place AL ROY finisher.
  • Brandon Lowe, Rays – Lowe owns a 153 wRC+ in 121 plate appearances, mostly as the Rays’ second baseman.  His 1.5 WAR is tops among AL rookies.  Lowe also enjoys the comfort of a $24MM contract signed back in March.
  • Michael Chavis, Red Sox – Mostly playing second base for the Red Sox, Chavis made his big league debut on April 20th and has already smacked six home runs.  Chavis may eventually be squeezed for playing time once Dustin Pedroia and Brock Holt return, though not if he keeps hitting anything like this.
  • Spencer Turnbull, Tigers – If Vogelbach is the league’s most surprising rookie hitter, the 26-year-old Turnbull deserves that designation for pitchers.  Rated just a 40-grade prospect by Baseball America prior to the season, the righty claimed the Tigers’ last rotation spot out of Spring Training and never looked back.  He’s rocking a 2.31 ERA in seven starts, and even if that can’t last he’s shown himself a capable big league starter.  Having tallied 135 2/3 innings last year and 112 in 2017, it seems unlikely Turnbull will be allowed to keep his current 200-inning pace.
  • Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners – Kikuchi owns a 3.98 ERA in eight starts, including a gem last time out in Cleveland.  Having made a large investment in Kikuchi, the Mariners have a plan to periodically give him a one-inning start, which so far happened in his seventh outing.  That approach still might get him around 150 innings, so Kikuchi has a shot at the award.
  • Ty Buttrey, Angels – It’s hard to ignore what the 26-year-old Buttrey has done out of the Angels’ bullpen so far.  He’s posted a 1.06 ERA with 21 punchouts and just three walks in 17 innings and has been pitching in high leverage situations all year.  Buttrey, who has touched 100 with his fastball, looks like the Angels’ closer of the future.
  • Trent Thornton, Blue Jays – Thornton, 25, was traded by the Astros to the Blue Jays for Aledmys Diaz in November.  According to Baseball America, his curveball features one of the highest spin rates in baseball, and he “has the stuff and control to fit as a No. 4 starter with a chance for more.”  So far he has a 4.08 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in seven starts.
  • Rowdy Tellez, Blue Jays – The Jays’ DH/first baseman has popped six home runs in the early going.  If Tellez is able to approach 30 bombs in a lost season for the Jays, he’ll be in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
  • Jesus Luzardo, Athletics and Forrest Whitley, Astros – Luzardo’s impressive spring and rotation bid was cut short by a shoulder injury, though the top prospect could return to game action in June.  It seems unlikely he’ll get enough innings with the A’s to compete for the award.  Whitley, meanwhile, has been knocked around in two of his four starts at Triple-A and may also have a half-season at best in the Majors this year.
  • Danny Jansen, Blue Jays –  Jansen has started about two-thirds of the Jays’ games behind the plate, but has been awful as a hitter through 90 plate appearances.  Luke Maile hasn’t been any better, so Jansen should have a chance to shake off his April and finish as the league average hitter he was projected to be.
  • Christin Stewart, Tigers – Stewart was off to a decent start as the Tigers’ left fielder before going down with a quad injury.  He’s currently on a minor league rehab assignment and has the plus power to make some noise in the ROY race.

A correction has been made to this post, thanks to a comment from reader txtgab.  We have confirmed that Dwight Smith Jr. is in fact not rookie eligible.  Additionally, reader tieran711 has kindly pointed me to this tweet from Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, which indicates that Daniel Vogelbach is also not rookie eligible.  Both players have been removed from the post.

Let us know what you think in our poll!  App users can click here.

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Sign Gio Gonzalez?

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Last night, we examined the market landscape for Gio Gonzalez, who’s back on the open market after exercising an opt-out clause in his now-defunct deal with the Yankees. As we explained there, the veteran lefty has a variety of plausible landing spots.

There’s indication that multiple clubs have already extended offers to Gonzalez, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently tweeted. While a deal isn’t imminent, it seems reasonable to think he could put pen to paper at any time. Having already built up his pitch count, Gonzalez ought to be ready to jump in and make a start at a moment’s notice.

If you’re interested in revisiting the breakdowns of each team’s situation vis-a-vis Gio, then check out the above-linked post. We’ll only list the teams that we pegged as the likeliest suitors in the poll below. Let’s see how the MLBTR readership expects things to shake out. (Response order randomized; link for app users.)

Poll: Which Early-Season Surprises Are For Real?

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As we approach the one-month mark of the young 2019 season, the MLB standings are starting to take shape, with fast starters trying to separate from the pack and rebuilding teams falling behind. With that said, the current slate of division leaders features some surprises. Notably, preseason favorites like the Yankees and Red Sox have encountered considerable adversity, while juggernauts like the Dodgers and Astros have thus far met expectations. Meanwhile, a number of teams that received less attention as potential contenders have found themselves climbing MLB’s rankings. Power surges in Seattle and Minnesota have carried the Mariners and Twins to the top of AL’s West and Central divisions, respectively. Elite run prevention in Pittsburgh has allowed the Pirates to flourish in the hyper-competitive NL Central. An injection of youthful energy has driven the Padres to within striking distance of the powerhouse Dodgers. Let’s examine these upstart clubs and look ahead to their outlook for the rest of the season.

The Mariners made headlines throughout the offseason, but often for the wrong reasons. General manager Jerry Dipoto spent the winter shipping off nearly every Major Leaguer with value, and now fields a team that only vaguely resembles the one that won 89 games in 2018. Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, and James Paxton were all dealt to the East Coast. Last season’s iteration of the Mariners was notorious for its unsustainable first-half performance, repeatedly winning one-run games, often thanks to the heroics of Edwin Diaz. In 2019, the story is of a different flavor, though skeptics may once again challenge the sustainability of April’s returns. This year’s team is slugging home runs at a historic rate, including a streak of 20 games in which the team hit at least one round-tripper. The 2019 Mariners have belted 56 home runs, 12 more than the next closest team, the Dodgers. Tim Beckham and Domingo Santana are churning out extra-base hits, and Mitch Haniger is rising to stardom. Still, the Astros are looming, and a spot in the AL Wild Card will not come easy, with sleeping giants in the AL East working through early adversity–to say nothing of the undeniable Rays.

In a division that has all the makings of a bloodbath, many might have counted out the Pirates after an uninspired offseason: whereas rivals’ offseasons were highlighted by flashy additions like Paul Goldschmidt, Yasiel Puig, and Yasmani Grandal, the Pirates were quiet in the winter, with names like Lonnie Chisenhall and Erik Gonzalez headlining the team’s moves. However, it has quickly become clear that the 12-7 Pirates boast one of the Majors’ best pitching staffs. Behind Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams has emerged as an automatic quality start every outing. Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove is showing off the dynamic stuff that made him the centerpiece in the Gerrit Cole trade, and Jordan Lyles has been a pleasant surprise to round out the rotation. Felipe Vazquez is dynamite in the late innings, and Richard Rodriguez showed promise last season as a high-leverage option, though the bullpen is somewhat shaky beyond that combination. On offense, things are less peachy, but Josh Bell is turning heads by coupling prodigious power with a keen batting eye. Again, the NL Central will provide no shortage of resistance, but a starting rotation of this caliber should keep the Pirates in more than their fair share of games.

With the last three seasons resembling a roller coaster ride, the Twins entered the offseason hoping to turn a corner. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine set out with essentially blank future payroll, capitalizing on that flexibility by bringing aboard veterans like Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jonathan Schoop to bolster a group of young position players that the Twins hope will be galvanized by rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. Jorge Polanco, fresh off a spring contract extension, has provided encouraging production from the shortstop position, and Eddie Rosario is blasting home runs at an impressive rate. Byron Buxton appears to have unlocked the potential that made him a top prospect, and Jose Berrios is entering bona fide ace territory. The pitching appears much improved from years’ past, with a bullpen headed by Taylor Rogers, who belongs in conversations with the league’s elite relief arms. This team may have the most attainable path to October baseball, playing in a weak division where their primary competition is the Indians, a team that has at times appeared vulnerable in 2019.

The Padres thrust themselves into the conversation for the postseason when general manager A.J. Preller and company added Manny Machado to the mix in a franchise-altering move. The team doubled down when the front office broke the mold by breaking camp with top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack on the Opening Day roster. Those moves have paid massive dividends thus far, with Tatis forcing his way into the national spotlight, displaying a five-tool skillset. The club’s rotation of young outfielders is launching homers, and the anonymous bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball dating back to last season. Meanwhile, with a host of young starters comprising the rotation, the possibility of a Dallas Keuchel addition remains on the table–a move that would emphatically declare the Friars’ intention to make a postseason push. At the top of the NL West, the Dodgers represent a daunting giant to topple, and the rest of the National League features no shortage of contending teams, but the Padres’ spunk might lead to meaningful autumn baseball for the first time in nearly a decade.

While there are months of baseball left to play, trades to be made, injuries to work around, and breakouts to emerge, the games played in March and April are no less important than those in September. Early-season results can lay the groundwork for what’s to come. Which of the aforementioned blossoming clubs are best positioned to sustain their success and exceed expectations?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Slow-Starting Playoff Contenders

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The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Rockies were among the majors’ most successful clubs in 2018, when the quartet comprised 40 percent of the league’s playoff bracket. No one was better than the Red Sox, who rolled to 108 regular-season wins before steamrolling the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers in the postseason en route to their latest World Series title. The Yankees, despite their loss to archrival Boston, enjoyed a more-than-respectable year in which they notched 100 victories. And Colorado knocked out Chicago in the National League wild-card game, a battle of two 90-plus-win teams, before succumbing to Milwaukee in the divisional round.

Given the excellence those clubs displayed last year, it would have been fair to expect each of them to earn playoff berths again in 2019. Instead, while we’re just a couple weeks into the season, all of those teams have tripped out of the starting block, having combined for 19 wins in 58 games. They’re the only members of last year’s playoff field that are under .500 at this point.

Boston, whose roster is almost the same as its title-winning version (sans relievers Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly), dropped a game to the lowly Orioles on Saturday. Fifteen contests into the season, the Red Sox have already lost 10 times – something they didn’t do until Game 35 a year ago. Neither their all-world offense nor their high-end pitching staff from 2018 have come close to replicating those performances thus far, and questions have swirled around ace Chris Sale. Signed to a five-year, $145MM extension before the season, Sale’s velocity – which began dropping amid an injury-limited 2018 – has continued to plummet. Unsurprisingly, the 30-year-old’s effectiveness has waned as his fastball has lost power. Not only has Sale allowed an earned run per inning across 13 frames, but one of baseball’s all-time strikeout artists has fanned just eight batters.

Maybe Sale is battling a physical issue, but the Yankees are dealing with plenty of their own. Eleven of their players, including standouts Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks and Dellin Betances are on the IL. The majority of that group won’t be back in the near future – or perhaps until 2020 in the case of Andujar – while Severino, Gregorius, Hicks and Betances haven’t suited up yet this year. With so many integral contributors unavailable, the Yankees have started 6-8. That would be less concerning if not for their inability to capitalize on an easy early season schedule. The Yankees have played 11 games against the Orioles, Tigers and White Sox, all of whom are regarded as bottom feeders, and only won six of those matchups. The AL East rival Rays (11-4) have taken advantage, evidenced by their 4.5-game lead on New York and their six-game edge over Boston.

Over in the NL, the Cubs – on the heels of a widely panned offseason – have sputtered to a 5-9 showing and a four-game deficit in the Central, which could be one of the majors’ most competitive divisions. Although cornerstone hitters Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber haven’t resembled their best selves, the Cubs’ offense has still done well statistically. Their pitching has been abysmal, on the other hand. Yu Darvish, who’s in Year 2 of a huge contract, continues to perform nothing like the pitcher he was pre-Chicago, while the bullpen the Cubs did little to bolster over the winter has looked predictably vulnerable.

Speaking of vulnerable, the Rockies have christened their season with the majors’ worst record (3-12) and its last-ranked run differential (minus-36). If the Rockies are going to overcome their horrific start to pick up their third straight playoff appearance, they’ll need far more from their position players. Their hitters have put together a woeful 37 wRC+ and minus-2.6 fWAR, both of which easily rank last in the game. Injuries have played a part, as regulars David Dahl, Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon are all on the IL. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ primary offensive catalysts – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon – have all been duds so far. Those three won’t stay down forever, though, and Colorado’s starting staff also has the talent to rebound from its early season mediocrity. But the Rockies can’t afford to let this skid continue to fester, especially considering they’re stuck in a division with the perennial champion Dodgers. Realistically, it’s wild card or bust for the Rockies, but rallying to steal one of those two spots in a crowded NL won’t be easy.

While it would be unwise to panic on April 13, there are more reasons for concern than expected in all of these teams’ cases. Then again, the same was said last year about the Dodgers, who began 16-26 on their way to 92 wins and another pennant. The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Rockies can take solace in that, perhaps, but do you believe any of them are already in serious trouble?

(poll link for app users)

Poll: When Will Kimbrel & Keuchel Sign?

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The season is now well underway, and there’s still no evidence that free agent hurlers Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel are close to inking new deals. It has mostly been crickets on the markets for both.

Kimbrel’s slate of potential suitors isn’t any clearer now than it was when we examined his market situation in early March. Neither has anything of significance occurred since we took a look at the possible Keuchel suitors about a week ago.

Those accomplished hurlers have to this point evidently not been willing to settle for pillow deals. It’s hard to blame them for that stance. It also makes it that much harder to guess how things will turn out — and when there’ll be a resolution.

Teams are continuing to make long-term investments in existing players through contract extensions, so it’s not as if they aren’t willing or able to consider future commitments at this stage of the season. But the ongoing insistence on multiple years seemingly makes it likelier that talks will continue to drag.

Waiting until after the June draft would allow the players to shed draft compensation requirements. When last we saw players approaching this caliber languish on the market into the season, one (Stephen Drew) inked in May while the other (Kendrys Morales) waited until just after the draft. Both settled for single-season deals.

When do you think Kimbrel will end up signing? (Link for app users.)

And how about Keuchel? (Link for app users.)

Poll: Which Team Should Splurge On Kimbrel?

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We have examined the free agent market from just about every angle imaginable over the course of a long signing period. We’re largely shifting our focus here at MLBTR to analyzing the offseason (through our Offseason In Review series), but there is still work to be done in free agency.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at the market for ace reliever Craig Kimbrel, focusing on the financial situations of various teams that might conceivably consider splurging at this late stage of the offseason. If you’re interested in understanding things from that angle and haven’t done so already, give that post a read. The teams broken out there aren’t the only ones that arguably can and should still be in on Kimbrel; as Steve explained, he did not give a detailed look at some clubs given the stances they took throughout the winter.

For purposes of today’s poll, we’ll open the door a bit wider. In theory, at least, every organization that hopes to be competitive now or even in 2020 ought to have given some amount of thought to what it would pay to secure the services of one of the game’s elite relievers. We know that no team has met Kimbrel’s initial asking price of a record-breaking, long-term deal. Otherwise, the behind-the-scenes market development has been murky.

Clearly, something has to give. Kimbrel will settle for a deal he’s less than enthused about and/or an organization will go beyond its comfort zone. We’ll focus here on the team-side motivation and throw things wide open, removing only a few organizations from the poll. Which of the following clubs do you think ought to be most willing — given its near-term competitive outlook, roster needs, and other commitments — to splurge a bit to land Kimbrel?

(Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

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Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.” 

Goldschmidt poll link for app users. 

Rendon poll link for app users.

 

MLBTR Poll: The Bryce Harper Contract

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It’s not the biggest-ever salary promise if you account for inflation, but Bryce Harper’s reported deal with the Phillies does have the highest number ever attached to a big league guarantee: $330MM. The star slugger took a discounted annual rate of pay over 13 seasons to get there. Lacking an opt-out and with full no-trade rights for the player, Harper is rather likely (though hardly assured) to remain in Philadelphia until the end of the 2031 season.

We ran through some of the post-signing reporting on the deal this morning. You’ll find some key details on the negotiations there. Harper’s value has been debated endlessly, of course. Ultimately, the market gave us an answer. But it’s one that many find unappealing, either on the high or low side. For a contract that has been this long in the making — many looked forward to Harper’s free agency before he even signed his first professional contract with the Nationals — it seems worthy of a poll.

How would you characterize the Harper deal? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Nolan Arenado Extension

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Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.

It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.

The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.

Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.

Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.

All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)

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