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Poll: Projecting Luke Voit’s 2019

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Among major leaguers who finished with at least 150 plate appearances in 2018, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout unsurprisingly led the way in wRC+ (191). But who finished second? Was it AL MVP Mookie Betts, NL MVP Christian Yelich or another big-name superstar? No, it was Luke Voit, who put up a 187 wRC+ in 161 PAs divided between the Cardinals and Yankees. Voit took a mere 13 trips to the plate until late July, when New York acquired him from St. Louis for a pair of relievers, and then proceeded to give the first baseman-needy Yankees an answer at the position over the final couple months of the season.

During his first 148 PAs as a Yankee, the burly, boisterous Voit batted a video game-like .322/.398/.671 with a Ruthian ISO (.350) and 15 home runs. And Statcast backed up Voit’s production, ranking the soon-to-be 28-year-old first in barrels per plate appearance and expected weighted on-base average (.437) among those who racked up at least 150 PAs on the season. While Voit benefited from a .365 batting average on balls in play, a number he may not approach again, the Yankees are understandably optimistic he’s good enough to serve as their No. 1 option at first going forward.

This has been an active offseason in the infield for New York, which has signed DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki while showing interest in Manny Machado, but the team has been quiet at first base. Despite Voit’s limited track record, the right-handed slugger’s incredible showing toward the end of 2018 has made him the odds-on favorite to start at first in 2019 for the Yankees, whose previous long-term hope, the lefty-swinging Greg Bird, has fallen short of expectations because of a spate of injuries and less-than-stellar overall production. The Yankees have been bullish on Bird, but he missed all of 2016 because of a shoulder injury, and then produced very little from 2017-18 while dealing with foot problems. His horrific 2018 campaign made it necessary for the World Series-contending Yankees to address first, where they ultimately chose to turn to Voit over the summer.

While it’s still too soon to give up on the 26-year-old Bird, he may not receive regular playing time with the Yankees again unless Voit falls flat. Although Bird was a much better prospect than Voit during their younger days, there’s no doubt the latter has been the superior major leaguer to this point. Consequently, as the Yankees prepare for a championship push, they’ll continue with Voit at first, undoubtedly hoping last season wasn’t a mirage and they’ve acquired a star-caliber hitter for next to nothing.

The Steamer projection system doesn’t expect the 2019 version of Voit to serve as an offensive force, though, as it predicts he’ll wind up with an above-average but hardly world-beating .262/.335/.458 line. That would make for a .793 OPS, far better than what Yankees first basemen managed from 2016-18 but also much less impressive than the production Voit offered during his abbreviated showing last season. Now that he’s the Yankees’ preferred choice at first, how do you expect Voit to perform in 2019?

(link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Nolan Arenado’s Future

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Just one year from reaching free agency, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado may go down among the most coveted players ever to hit the open market – if he does, that is. The chances of Arenado shopping himself around the majors next winter seemingly took a hit Saturday when Rockies owner Dick Monfort expressed optimism about the club’s chances of locking the four-time All-Star up for the long haul.

“I think we’ve gotten it to the point where we’re to the finals. We’re to the crescendo,” Monfort told Thomas Harding of MLB.com in regards to extension talks with Arenado. Monfort added that he’s “comfortable that we can get a number that we can get to” for Arenado, who “wants this to happen as much as we do.”

The Rockies and Arenado have already held at least one meeting this week, during which they hammered out a record-setting, arbitration-avoiding agreement worth $26MM. It seems they also used that summit to discuss a long-term arrangement for Arenado. Regardless, the Rockies will no doubt need to hand Arenado a team-record pact – one that obliterates the $141.5MM guarantee they gave former first baseman Todd Helton in 2001 – to prevent their current franchise player from taking a stab at free agency.

Although they’ve historically been middle of the pack or lower when it comes to spending, the Rockies appear ready to pony up for Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich said in December that the Rockies could afford a $200MM-plus contract for Arenado, and Monfort noted Saturday that revenue from their TV contract – which runs through 2020 – will jump from $20MM per annum to $40MM. That 100 percent increase, not to mention a new TV deal which the Rockies will begin negotiating in the summer, should only help the team’s chances of retaining Arenado.

For his part, Arenado may simply prefer the comfort of Colorado, where he has posted far better offensive numbers than on the road, to dealing with the free-agent process. The market has become increasingly unkind to players over the past couple offseasons, evidenced in part by the fact that in-their-prime superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have been unemployed for three months. Harper and Machado are eventually going to rake in huge contracts, but with fewer suitors than expected, the duo may not do as well as predicted when the winter began. And while Harper hasn’t even played his age-26 season yet and Machado won’t turn 27 until July, Arenado will be on the verge of his age-29 campaign if and when he becomes a free agent.

Despite the age difference between him and the Harper-Machado tandem, Arenado’s certainly paying close attention to their free-agent forays. The more money Harper and Machado receive, the better it will be for Arenado, whose superb all-around track record gives him a strong chance of joining the $200MM club in the next 12 months. The main question is whether he’ll get that money from Colorado or another franchise. How do you expect it to play out?

(link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: The Reds’ Rebuilt Rotation

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The Reds entered this winter determined to boost their club’s performance at the MLB level, even if an anticipated new core hasn’t quite fully come together. On the heels of four-straight campaigns with less than seventy wins and last-place division finishes, it was and is an understandable goal — albeit one that called for careful handling to avoid denting the long-term outlook.

At the top of the docket, without question, was the improvement of a rotation that has been the game’s worst over that approximate span. While the team has ended up adding two outfielders with major name recognition — Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig — they don’t really change the overall complexion of the position-player unit. The Reds had a middle-of-the-pack lineup and bullpen in 2018. Perhaps there’s some hope that either or both of those groups (the former, particularly) will improve in the season to come. But the rotation was the major impediment, and there’s little doubting that the quality of the newly rebuilt pitching staff will have a huge say in the club’s outlook in a division that promises to feature quite a bit of competition.

When GM Nick Krall said recently that this’ll be the “best rotation we’ve had in five years,” he wasn’t exactly staking out a bold position. The standard isn’t terribly lofty. If the Cincy outfit wishes to compete, though, it’ll need to do more than just top its abysmal recent starting rotation work.

Let’s take a quick snapshot of where things stand now in the starting five, beginning with the newly hired guns:

  • Sonny Gray: The most recently-acquired of the team’s three new hurlers is also the one who received the biggest commitment. In addition to his preexisting $7.5MM salary for 2019, the Reds are taking on $30.5MM in new money over three years (while also gaining another season of control via option). Though his upside is perhaps easy to exaggerate, as he handily overperformed his peripherals in his best campaigns with the Athletics, Gray seems largely to have the physical skills intact that made him a high-quality, 200+-inning starter in 2014 and 2015.
  • Alex Wood: Long known as a talented but injury-prone pitcher, Wood has mostly provided a good quantity of innings. He showed quite a bit of ceiling upon landing with the Dodgers, but wasn’t quite as sharp last year and exhibited a 2 mph year-over-year velocity decline. Though his salary isn’t yet decided, Wood will check in with a salary between $8.7MM (the team’s filing figure) and $9.65MM (his own) in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
  • Tanner Roark: As with Wood, the former Nationals hurler arrived via trade in advance of his last season of control. Slated to earn an even $10MM, Roark has been longer on innings than results over the past two seasons. But he did spin two outstanding campaigns before that, even if those results weren’t fully supported by the peripherals, and has been an exceptionally durable pitcher since emerging in D.C. Roark seems a good bet to provide a steady volume of at-least good-enough frames for the Cincinnati organization.

The trio joins the following holdovers:

  • Luis Castillo: The sophomore slump  that Castillo experienced didn’t turn out to be all that bad, as he finished with a 4.30 ERA and 8.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 over 169 2/3 innings after turning on the afterburners down the stretch. In his final 11 starts, Castillo spun 66 1/3 frames of 2.44 ERA ball with a 69:14 K/BB ratio. He’s still just 26 years of age and still thrws gas. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Castillo is the likeliest member of the new-look Reds outfit to turn in top-of-the-rotation numbers, and his track record to date suggests he ought to be good at least for a nice volume of solid frmes.
  • Anthony DeSclafani: Maybe we’ll look back at the end of the 2019 season and wonder why we had questions. After all, DeSclafani did show some signs of returning to his prior form in 2018 — it’s just that they were obfuscated by a barrage of long balls (1.88 per nine; 19.8% HR/FB rate) that left him with a 4.93 ERA. Still, he managed to tally 115 innings after missing all of the prior season, sported a career-high 94+ average fastball, and matched his career average with a 9.4% swinging-strike rate. True, DeSclafani did surrender loads of hard contact (41.9%), but it seems he has regained much of his physical ability.
  • Tyler Mahle: Long considered a talented hurler, the 24-year-old sputtered in his first full effort at the game’s highest level. With 22 balls leaving the yard in his 112 frames, and a less-than-trim tally of 4.3 BB/9, it’s hardly surprising to see a 4.98 ERA on the final-season ledger. That said, Mahle also ran up 8.8 K/9 on the basis of a 9.9% swinging-strike rate. If any of the above-listed pitchers falters in camp or during the year, whether due to performance or injury issues, Mahle looks to be a nice piece to have on hand.
  • Other depth arms: The remaining potential rotation candidates seem to have little hope of competing for a starting job in camp — barring injury, of course. Still, there are some plausible pieces to work with in Sal Romano, Cody Reed, Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, Keury Mella, and non-roster veteran Odrisamer Despaigne.

Looking at the overall picture, if you focus on established MLB ceiling, there’s a clear path to a quality unit. True, none of the five most accomplished pitchers — Gray, Wood, Roark, Castillo, and DeSclafani — has really ever been a dominant ace. But at their best, every one of these hurlers has had an extended run as at least a high-quality, mid-rotation starter. On the other hand, all five (to say nothing of the other players listed above) have shown their warts in the not-so-distant past. Only Wood finished the 2018 season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

So, how do you view the offseason efforts of the Cincinnati baseball operations unit to cobble together a pitching staff?

MLBTR Poll: Have Teams Become Too Conservative In Free Agency?

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As we approach February of a second straight long-gestating free agent winter, the top two free agents remain curiously unsigned. Rather than drive a bidding war, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s concurrent free agencies have snailed along with only the White Sox and Phillies as definitive suitors. More so than usual, there is a growing sense of discord between the owners and players, steering these economically-opposed-but-conjoined forces towards a potentially destructive labor negotiation in 2021, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

Teams at both ends of the competitive spectrum are contributing to this contentious ecosystem. At one end, bottom feeders like the Orioles, Marlins, and Blue Jays are realizing the long odds of winning their divisions and choosing the judicious (and totally understandable) approach to team building, largely abstaining from free agency. At the same time, there are more than a few teams with wide-open competitive windows who nonetheless remain passive in free agency, citing financial limitations or a need for future flexibility. The competitive balance tax, intended as a punitive fee to help balance the league, has instead become a scapegoat for large market teams to avoid significant free agent spending. Public opinion lands on both sides of the fence, with owners painted as evolving at best and collusive at worst, while the players are viewed, alternatively, as a whiny group of greedy millionaires or a disenfranchised labor force facing an unemployment crisis.

Receiving the brunt of the criticism at present is the Dodgers, back-to-back National League champions whom many expected to make a play for Harper. Despite their reputation as big spenders, however, it’s been quite some time since the Dodgers played the part of spendthrift, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. When they hired former Rays GM Andrew Friedman before the 2015 season, there was excitement over what Friedman could do when given the reins to the Los Angeles machine. What has conspired instead brings to light a whole new question: how much revenue can the Dodgers clear under Friedman’s watchful spending? In theory, they’ve stuck a perfect balance between large market spending and small market creativity, but the reaction hasn’t been quite so laudatory.

For example, in staying true to his ever-creative roster management, Friedman shipped the erratic trio of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood to the attraction-starved Reds for a pair of promising prospects and the remains of Homer Bailey, whom they released. We asked MLBTR readers for your opinion, and 45% thought the Reds won the deal against only 18% who pegged the Dodgers as the winner. There was another 24% who thought the trade was a win-win, but it was an overall underwhelming reaction to a move the Dodgers likely view as a creative means to acquire future assets in return for volatile performers who proffered no future value to the club beyond 2019.

The above trade, combined with their complete lack of interest in Harper and Machado gives the impression of a team disinclined towards large payroll expenditures. Accurate or not, the optics have born itself out in the public reaction – so long as Harper and Machado remain on the market, the cries for ownership to open up their wallets and “do whatever it takes to win” will not cease. And yet, the “throw money at it” approach to problem solving, long en vogue among sports franchise front offices, has gone decidedly out of style.

When pressed about the their lack of interest in Harper, Dodgers president Stan Kasten rejected any idea of frugality on the Dodgers’ part, per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Kasten repeatedly cites attendance numbers to rebuke the idea of fan discontent while also railing against the public invention of false narratives. While that does sound an awful lot like another billionaire using the “fake news” moniker as blanket refutation of public sentiment, it’s worth considering his perspective. On the one hand, the Dodgers are being targeted here not because they’ve made poor decisions, necessarily, but because their market, the current competitive landscape, and traditional expectations of free agency peg them as one of the likeliest overspenders. That they aren’t taking the bait and competing literally at all costs shouldn’t necessarily make them the poster team for the current lack of spending. They did, after all, make the largest cash commitment to a position player thus far this winter.

And yet, with those sky high attendance numbers in tow, it’s certainly possible that the Dodgers are both among the highest-spending franchises in baseball and also among those most at fault for stifling the market. Keep in mind this exploration from Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports, this isn’t simply a Dodger issue – this is a categorical questioning of the fairness, or smartness, or rightness of team spending throughout the league. The Dodgers are the team currently left holding the bag, but the Cubs, Yankees, Giants, Astros, Indians and others could all be accused of underspending, to various degrees. Only the Red Sox and Nationals had the gall (pride? guts? willingness?) to exceed the luxury tax in 2018. Of course, it’s not “crossing the tax line” at issue, it’s that the refusal to engage the free agent market leaves wins on the table. The rigidity with which large market teams are refusing to pay the tax is baffling, especially as more and more GMs attest that there’s no mandate from ownership to do so. The party line in front offices across the league isn’t that ownership won’t pay, it’s that ownership is finally hep to the fact that big contracts means big risk that sometimes turns into a big, constant reminder of ownership’s failings. In Los Angeles, the Angels have the best player in baseball, and the best argument against these monster contracts. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a string of six straight division titles and two straight pennants. It’s easy to understand why Kasten believes in his club’s approach.

Time remains for Harper and Machado to land the types of mega-deals they’re seeking, and they will, no doubt, end up with a sum of money that, out of context, will boggle the mind. But in context, it’s more complicated. See Grandal, Yasmani. Teams are spending less in free agency than they used to and it’s incumbent upon the game’s biggest stars to set the market. Anything less would be a disservice to the players who don’t have the same leverage.

So where do MLBTR readers stand on the state of free agency in 2019? Have teams evolved to the point that’s simply frustrating for players? Are owners valuing revenue over contention in a way that threatens the underlying infrastructure of the sport? Should players readjust their expectations? Or is this the battle that’s worth going to the mattresses?

Even, is this just what a flatter marketplace looks like? With opposing sides taking longer than usual to find a middle ground? Regardless, the debate rages on. What do you think?

Link for app users.

MLBTR Readers’ Mock Hall Of Fame Ballot

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The votes are in, but it remains to be seen who has been elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame. Official results will be revealed this evening. In the meantime, those with interest are left to examine the ballot-counting efforts of Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs). Here’s his updated spreadsheet for reference as to what is publicly known at this time, representing just over half of the total ballots. If you’re interested in what those data points predict, check out this post from Ryan Pollock of The Hardball Times.

While it’s hardly our core area of coverage, we thought we’d get in on the fun and allow our readers a chance to have a quick say as to who ought to be inducted this year. For these purposes, we’ll include only those players who have received more than five percent of the actual tally documented to this point. (That’s also the threshold those players will need to clear to stay on the ballot for another season.) That limits the field a bit, but you’ll have the opportunity to pick as many candidates as you like, whereas BBWAA members are limited to ten selections annually. (Fangraphs recently released the results of its own crowdsourced ballot, unsullied by the ensuing partial release of actual voting results and under conditions much more closely approximating the real thing.)

Here’s the poll, with response order randomized. This is just for fun, of course, but hopefully it’ll still be interesting to see where MLBTR readers land on the story of the day. (Link for app users.)

The poll is now closed. Only two players landed on a high-enough percentage of ballots to crack the 75% barrier:

Mariano Rivera 99.11%
Roy Halladay 76.97%
Edgar Martinez 70.85%
Mike Mussina 55.66%
Barry Bonds 55.07%
Roger Clemens 55.05%
Curt Schilling 43.32%
Fred McGriff 39.45%
Larry Walker 39.12%
Manny Ramirez 27.25%
Todd Helton 23.64%
Omar Vizquel 21.62%
Jeff Kent 21.17%
Billy Wagner 20.80%
Andy Pettitte 18.76%
Andruw Jones 18.72%
Scott Rolen 18.71%
Gary Sheffield 18.46%
Sammy Sosa 15.01%

Poll: How Much Money For Manny?

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As an elite, in-his-prime player, Manny Machado isn’t the type of free agent who comes along very often in Major League Baseball. With that in mind, Machado (and fellow 26-year-old superstar free agent Bryce Harper) no doubt came into the offseason with designs on signing one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted Machado would eclipse Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM extension from 2014. Meanwhile, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Fancred’s Jon Heyman forecast that Machado would earn less than Stanton, but they did peg him to surpass the $275MM guarantee Alex Rodriguez received as a free agent in 2007.

While Machado may still outdo Stanton or at least Rodriguez, his childhood idol, his future earning power looks far less certain two-plus months into his trip to the open market. Free agency has been a surprisingly protracted process for Machado – who, along with Harper – remains available just a few weeks from spring training. And there has been a stunning lack of publicly reported teams after Machado, who counts the White Sox and Phillies among his most ardent suitors. Reports over the past week have indicated the White Sox issued either a seven-year, $175MM offer or an eight-year, $250MM proposal to Machado, either of which would’ve looked like a light guarantee for him at the beginning of the offseason. However, agent Dan Lozano released a strongly worded statement swatting down those rumors and insisting “reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.”

Shortly after Lozano sent his denial to the media, new reports emerged suggesting serious interest in Machado stretches beyond Philadelphia and Chicago. There are supposedly two unnamed teams in the mix for Machado, and one, it seems, has put out the richest offer for the four-time All-Star infielder. Machado is reportedly primed to choose the highest bidder, but it’s unclear how close he is to signing. When the former Oriole and Dodger finally does put pen to paper, though, do you expect him to reel in a record-breaking guarantee?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Land Sonny Gray?

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Often, when reports emerge that a particular player is about to be traded, it isn’t long thereafter that the landing spot is reported. Today, there’s indication that the Yankees are closing in on a deal involving righty Sonny Gray, but it’s still not yet clear where he could be heading. That leaves an opening to do a quick poll to get the final predictions of MLBTR’s readers.

Gray, 29, could fit with quite a few organizations, even after a less-than-inspiring 2018 campaign. He’s an accomplished hurler who is slated to earn a rather reasonable $7.5MM for the coming season — a manageable rate of pay even if he’s not able to get back to producing high-end results.

With Gray having been marketed so heavily all winter long, the list of interested teams is by now well-known, though surely others could yet also be involved. In my chat today, I was asked about the possibility of him landing with at least half of the teams in baseball. Rather than trying to pick a narrower list for this poll, then, I’m throwing them all out there for you to sort through.

Where’ll Gray end up? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Best Value On A High-AAV, Two-Year Deal

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Scanning down the board of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, it’s easy to identify the large group of players who were good enough to command annual salaries approaching or exceeding ten million dollars, but as to whom contract length was in question entering the winter. Many of those players, in fact, have already agreed to terms.

With the dust having settled for such a large portion of the market, I thought it’d be interesting to see how MLBTR’s readership views some of those contracts. In making predictions on these players, we thought long and hard about where the deal would end up, often focusing on the question whether the player could secure a third guaranteed season. Some did; some didn’t.

Here, we’ll focus on those players who ended up with two-year contracts, when it seemed at least possible at the outset of the market that a lengthier deal would be available. The question is: which of these deals looks like the best buy for the team in question? (Response order randomized; link for app users.)

Poll: The LeMahieu And Lowrie Signings

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On Thursday, news broke that the Mets, one of the few teams who’d continued to kindle the Hot Stove throughout the winter, were again firing up, with the signing of 34-year-old Jed Lowrie. And then on Friday, amidst a chaotic deluge of arbitration settlements, the Yankees added to perhaps the league’s most crowded infield mix, signing second baseman (and now, perhaps, utility infielder) DJ LeMahieu.

On the surface, both deals were head-scratchers: the Mets, of course, just replaced a pop-up option at the keystone with a potential hall-of-famer, and already seemed set at third and short. First base was tentatively reserved for a Peter Alonso/Dominic Smith/J.D. Davis mix, and the team had spent much of this month assembling depth options of every sort. So where would Lowrie fit? And why wouldn’t the team have used its (ostensibly) few remaining resources where it needed it most, viz. in center field, or to tighten a loose mid-relief corps?

The Yankees, then, may have seized the enigmatic upper hand with Friday’s LeMahieu signing. Gleyber Torres, an early-season option at shortstop during Didi Gregorius’ absence, looked to have second-base on lock for the next half-dozen years at least, and the team has young, good, and very cheap options at the corner spots.  Plus, there’s the addition of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, brought in to hold down the early-season fort if he can make his way to the field, who seemed interested in New York only because of its clear path to playing time. LeMahieu has played positions other than his native second before, but none since 2014, since which time he’s entrenched himself as (arguably) the game’s premier defender at the position. Utility men don’t typically make $12MM a year, especially on the heels of two below-league-average offensive seasons, so perhaps the signing is a mere precursor to a move on a larger scale.

Lowrie has been excellent over the last two seasons, accruing 8.5 fWAR in 310 games. He appeared in more games last season, though, than he did from 2015-16, and nearly as many games in ’17 as he did from ’10-’12. Injuries have always been a major part of the profile, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old had mostly dropped the utility moniker in recent years, appearing only in cameo roles at positions other than second. So where will the team deploy him?  Third base is an option, but that’d move Todd Frazier to first, where, after three middling offensive seasons, he seems a disjointed fit at best. Such a move, too, would likely keep Peter Alonso in the minors, where the recurrence of a demolition tour would seem of little benefit to anyone. Lowrie probably doesn’t have the range for short at this point in his career, and a utility role wouldn’t be appropriate for someone of his pay grade. Perhaps Frazier will shift full-time to the bench, where the club already has much younger and much cheaper options, or is sent away in a back-page trade, netting a fringe return at best. Steamer, for its part, forecasts Lowrie to be just two percent better offensively than Frazier next season, so hoping for a straight upgrade seems presumptuous.

LeMahieu is part of the rare breed, since Statcast data was made public, to post well-above-average exit velocities and a well-below-average launch angle. The combo works for Christian Yelich, but for most others – Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond – it spells disaster. If the Yanks can rework LeMahieu’s swing – he already boasts an opposite-field-dominated approach that should fit perfectly in their park – and transplant his defensive wizardry at second to another position(s), the club may have a bargain on its hand, but such an outcome seems unlikely. He doesn’t fit at first, and the club has now lost leverage in a potential Miguel Andujar trade. If the rookie-of-the-year runner-up can shore-up his defensive woes and find a bit better control of the strike zone, the Yankees are looking at a perennial all-star. With a value nowhere near his potential peak, shipping out Andujar now – or moving him to first base – seems altogether shortsighted.

Do you like the respective moves? Pick your answer in the poll below.

Looking At The Best Remaining Landing Spots For A.J. Pollock

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It was far from clear last winter when and where Lorenzo Cain would sign. Still, his status as the lone standout center fielder on the market gave confidence that he’d ultimately find a solid deal. That’s ultimately just what happened, as Cain landed just above MLBTR’s prediction (4/$70MM) with a five-year, $80MM pact.

This time around, A.J. Pollock entered the market without a terribly clear outlook. As with Cain, it was possible to imagine quite a few teams signing him, but hard to point to any particularly obvious fits. Likewise, he’s also obviously the best-available, up-the-middle outfield option. Pollock’s checkered health background led MLBTR to predict a contract of four years and $60MM, even though he has the edge on Cain in age.

So, how do things look now that the calendar has flipped to 2019? Though Pollock remains unsigned, the market has changed shape around him.

Several teams that seemed to be suitors may no longer be. Having signed Michael Brantley, the Astros don’t appear to be much of a fit. While the Mets would surely still like to upgrade, they seem to be limited financially from doing so, with the team evidently choosing to rely on bounceback candidates Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton up the middle. The Reds have added two veteran outfielders; if they were ever a likely suitor, they probably aren’t now.

It’s questionable, perhaps, whether the White Sox are still a plausible landing spot. On the one hand, the club just reached agreement with veteran Jon Jay, who has spent most of his career patrolling center. Of course, he’d also be a plausible corner piece. And it’s fair to wonder what the Chicago front office will do if it fails to land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. There still seem to be some scenarios where Pollock fits, depending upon how aggressive the organization ends up being.

Of course, the South Siders’ decisionmaking will surely also include reference to their division rivals in Cleveland. While the Indians have focused to this point on clearing salary, and may not be interested in adding any back, it’s also possible that they’ll find a way to squeeze in a significant contract. Pollock remains a strong roster fit, though the club does not need to focus up the middle specifically with Leonys Martin on hand.

The National League East also has a few possible landing spots. While the Phillies are weighing more significant additions, the team could still check back in after the Harper/Machado situations have further evolved. Innumerable possibilities — and lots of dollars — remain available to the Phils. It is less clear that the Braves will have the need and the willingness to chase down Pollock at this point, though they have been connected in the past. The club has other options up the middle, but could like the idea of utilizing Pollock at times in the corners while forming a ball-hawing, still offensively-capable outfield unit. Given the Atlanta organization’s recent history, though, it seems unlikely that it’ll chase the market.

Out west, the fit is yet more speculative. The Giants have long made some sense but aren’t exactly playing an active role in the offseason to this point. It’s possible to imagine a deal, but new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt realistic about the organization’s immediate outlook and will surely prefer not to tie up future payroll. There’s certainly a way to imagine the division-favorite Dodgers as a landing spot, particularly after the club dealt away a pair of right-handed-hitting outfielders, but signing a sizable deal with Pollock doesn’t really match the front office’s recent approach. Plus, Chris Taylor remains available as a right-handed-hitting center fielder.

Beyond those clubs, there are a few others that could be matches — but only if you squint. Pollock would be a luxury for the Rockies or Angels, but with other priorities and limitations those hopeful contenders likely won’t consider him at full price. The D-Backs would surely like to have Pollock back, but only at a discount. The Tigers or Rangers could still surprise, perhaps, as both have ample spending capacity against their historical levels, but there’s no reason at this point to believe that either club will hand out a long-term deal with little in the way of 2019 hopes and dreams. While the Athletics may or may not believe Ramon Laureano is ready to hold down near-everyday duties in center, they’re unlikely to allocate significant resources to the outfield with so many right-handed-hitting outfield options already available and ongoing rotation needs.

Given those considerations, where do you think Pollock is likeliest to land at this point? (Poll link for app users.)

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