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Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?

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It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?

The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.

This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.

Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).

Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The Padres Trade Kirby Yates?

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We’ve seen signs that the Padres are pondering a move this summer involving Kirby Yates. At least, that’s how I interpret recent reports from the team’s beat writers on just how hesitant the team is to move a player who has arguably been the game’s best reliever to this point of the season.

Sure, the Friars are putting out word that it’d take an “overwhelming offer” or an “unforeseen haul” to part with Yates. This is roughly like putting up your house on Zillow’s “Make Me Move” listings, but requesting blind bids instead of posting a zany asking price. Yates is totally not available … unless …

Let’s just say the Padres are interested in seeing how interested their rivals are in making a deal.

This is a familiar strategy with regard to controllable closers. And it’s one that often, but doesn’t always, lead to a swap. It feels as if Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias have been trade candidates for years. Surely, the Pirates and Reds have fielded offers, both before and after inking those two relievers to extensions. They haven’t moved … yet. The Padres have intimate, recent experience with just this sort of thing, having held onto Brad Hand, then signed him to an extension, and then traded him. Likewise, the Yankees hemmed and hawed and finally dealt Andrew Miller (like Hand, to the Indians) only after securing an offer of “two twin firstborns.”

In this case, there are certainly some strong reasons to think the Pads will have interest in a deal. Yates is already 32 years of age. The club is two games under .500 and has already been buried in the NL West (along with the rest of the division) by the powerhouse Dodgers.

On the other hand, Yates is also still controllable for another season — one in which the San Diego team hopes to be fully competitive. Heck, Yates could even be an extension candidate in the mold of Hand.

It’s hard to imagine Yates will ever look better on paper. He has racked up 27 saves in 35 1/3 innings of 1.27 ERA pitching, with an exceptional combination of 14.3 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. He has allowed just 21 hits and one home run this year. He’s earning only $3MM and change for the present campaign.

Yates has quite a lot of trade value. He also holds no shortage of appeal to a Padres team that needs to be efficient with its spending after making some uncharacteristically massive free agent outlays.

How do you see this one turning out? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: What To Do With Jorge Soler?

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The buzz has been positive around Jorge Soler’s mini-breakout campaign this year, as he’s turned in a .248/.312/.532 line with an eye-grabbing 21 home runs. It’s a good news-bad news situation for the Royals, as the jump in production makes Soler likely to decline a $4MM option and become eligible for arbitration, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan.

On the whole, he’s much the same player he’s always been, but the mere fact that he’s been healthy (knock on wood) is a positive change. But has his game improved otherwise? The realization of his long-tantalizing raw power (.284 ISO) makes up the majority of Soler’s improvement. Meanwhile, his walk rate has fallen below-average to 7.5 BB% and his strikeout rate is up a tick as well, though the quality of his contact has been strong across the board.

He will be an interesting arbitration case to follow, as slugger’s of Soler’s ilk generally fare better in arbitration than they might on today’s open market. C.J. Cron jumps to mind as a comp, whom the Rays DFA’ed after a 30-homer, 2.0 rWAR season rather than give a raise on his $2.3MM 2018 salary. Cron ended up in Minnesota for $4.8MM, where he’s already accumulated 2.0 rWAR via his .279/.344/.534 batting line. Such numbers might be a best-case scenario for Soler in 2020, as even Cron’s 2018 lands slightly higher than Soler’s 2019 by wRC+ (122 to 118).

Depending on where the Royals fall in their valuation of Soler, a non-tender would not be wholly unreasonable were he to opt into arbitration as Flanagan suggests. At 27-years-old, Soler should be entering his prime, and depending on how this season ends, he could be coming off the most prodigious power season in Royals history. Power pays in arbitration.

The Royals typically have their own way of doing things, however, and Soler’s power is a unique contribution on a roster that ranks 23rd in the majors in isolated power and slugging percentage. Their books remain relatively clean moving forward, especially after 2020 when only Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, and Whit Merrifield are under contract. Dayton Moore could attempt to buy out Soler’s two remaining arbitration years in one fell swoop. Investing in an injury-prone, one-dimensional designated hitter – even a good one – is not necessarily the safest stock option for the Royals, however.

It’s only June 22, so much of this story has yet to play out – but it’s never too early to gauge public opinion! Besides, what better way to start out your Saturday morning than with a healthy pondering of the best application of the Royals future payroll?

If Soler’s trajectory holds and he opts into arbitration, how should the Royals respond? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grade The Edwin Encarnacion Swap

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The Yankees struck early over the weekend, lining up a deal with the Mariners to bring in slugger Edwin Encarnacion. It’ll reportedly cost the club a pitching prospect (Juan Then) and something like $7MM in salary obligations (approximately half of the remainder owed by the M’s this season and on a 2020 option buyout).

(I’d like to crow over the fact that I prognosticated EE as the next player to be traded in a recent chat. Unfortunately, I was also a bit dismissive in discussing the Yankees as a possible suitor.)

It’s hard not to love the potential look of the Yanks’ lineup with Encarnacion added to the mix. He was obliterating opposing pitching to the tune of a .241/.356/.531 slash line and 21 home runs in Seattle. With fellow righty sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the mend, to say nothing of the players already on the active roster at the moment, the Bronx Bombers could have an otherworldly array of power bats down the stretch.

There’s certainly an argument that the New York organization should see starting pitching as its top priority. And that may well be the case. Adding EE hardly precludes further moves to add arms. The Yankees did take on luxury tax obligations and creep closer to the highest penalty level with this swap. But the deal also could help free the team to utilize young outfielder Clint Frazier in an ensuing move.

The Yanks hold the edge in the AL East at the moment, but it’s a precarious hold. The Rays seem to be here to stay while the Red Sox have steadily moved back into range. Adding Encarnacion provides an immediate boost, protects against further injury issues or setbacks, and creates immense lineup upside. On the other hand, it’s a costly move on an older player who joins a collection of defensively limited sluggers with Luke Voit already ensconced at first base and Judge & Stanton perhaps warranting some DH time when they return.

How do you grade the move? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Are Yankees AL Favorites?

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We’re still a month and a half from the July 31 trade deadline, but the arms race has already begun in the American League. The Yankees, one of the AL’s premier teams, pulled off a stunning move Saturday in acquiring prolific slugger Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners for young pitching prospect Juan Then. Including the 21 home runs he has already racked up this season, no major leaguer has hit more HRs than Encarnacion’s 284 dating back to his 2012 breakout with the Blue Jays.

It’s clear the Yankees are trying to construct a super lineup, and it’s likely that’s what they’ll have when injured star outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return from their long absences in the coming weeks. A full-strength Yankees lineup will include Encarnacion at designated hitter, Judge in right field, Stanton in left, Aaron Hicks in center, Gary Sanchez at catcher, Luke Voit at first, Gleyber Torres at second, Didi Gregorius at short and DJ LeMahieu at third. If you’re an opposing pitcher set to face that lineup, you may hope for a torrential downpour.

On the other hand, the Yankees’ starting staff looks far from foolproof, as noted earlier this week. Injured ace Luis Severino should be in position to finally make his season debut after the All-Star break. Even if that happens, the Yankees will need slumping second and third starters James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka to right themselves. The club also has to find answers behind those two, as Domingo German (now injured), CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ haven’t been able to provide any of late. Don’t be surprised if general manager Brian Cashman, after acquiring Encarnacion, makes another significant trade for starting pitching as a result.

The Yankees’ bullpen, meanwhile, doesn’t need a lot of help. Their relief corps hasn’t matched some of the “best ever” talk that was out there entering the season, but it remains a strength. And the group will become all the more formidable if Dellin Betances, yet another injured standout, returns sometime in the summer. Betances, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman forming Voltron at the end of games would certainly make life easier on the Yankees’ rotation, regardless of whether the team adds a starter from outside.

At 42-27, the Yankees don’t carry the AL’s best record – not by a long shot. Both Minnesota and Houston are five games ahead of the Yankees, and the Astros have a few of their own cornerstones mending from injuries in Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa.

Let’s also not discount two of the Yankees’ division rivals, Tampa Bay and reigning World Series champion Boston. The Rays are just a half-game behind the Yankees and, for what it’s worth, own a far better run differential (plus-96 to plus-65). Furthermore, they could get back an important in-season reinforcement in budding ace Tyler Glasnow, out since May with a forearm strain, as early as next month.

The Red Sox don’t look as if they’ll approach last year’s 108-win outburst, and they have 5 1/2 games to make up on the Yankees. However, the sleeping giant in Boston may finally be waking up, having won four in a row. The Sox also own a plus-47 run differential that’s not quite befitting of their 38-34 record, and they’re another team with an injured starter (Nathan Eovaldi) who may return soon to complete its rotation.

Considering the presences of the Twins, Astros, Rays and Red Sox – not to mention a few other playoff contenders – the Yankees have their work cut out for them if they’re going to earn their first pennant since 2009. Plus, any or all of those teams could bolster themselves by the deadline. The Yankees, though, have managed one of the game’s top records thus far without many (or any) contributions from Encarnacion, Judge, Stanton – three players about to grace their lineup on a daily basis – and may see Severino and Betances return. With that in mind, is New York the favorite in the AL?

(Poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.

Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players.  Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.

The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).

As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson’s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright’s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.

Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?

(Poll link for app users)

Will The Red Sox & Indians Make The Playoffs?

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The Red Sox and Indians entered the 2019 season as popular picks to earn playoff berths. Both teams have been powerhouses in recent years, including in 2018, when the Red Sox went 108-54 en route to a World Series title and the Indians took home their third consecutive AL Central crown. Two-plus months into the season, though, Boston and Cleveland have had to sail through rougher waters than expected. Both teams are just a tad over .500 (the Red Sox are 34-32, the Indians 33-32) and currently sitting outside the AL playoff picture.

Just about everything that could have gone right did for the Red Sox a year ago. Their position players paced the entire league in runs and led the AL in fWAR, and their pitchers were toward the top of the game in ERA and fWAR. None of that’s true this season, however. While Boston continues to enjoy a formidable offense, it’s not the juggernaut it was a season ago. Last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Betts, as well as J.D. Martinez,  Andrew Benintendi, World Series MVP Steve Pearce and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all seen their numbers dip. Much-improved production from Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez hasn’t been enough to offset the fallen output of that important group.

On the pitching side, ace Chris Sale has come back with a vengeance from a dreadful start, while David Price has also been outstanding. At the same time, though, late-2018 hero Nathan Eovaldi has barely pitched because of an elbow injury (and has struggled when he has taken the mound). Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez’s run prevention has tailed off, though his peripherals are encouraging, Rick Porcello hasn’t been close to his best self and enemy offenses have roughed up Hector Velazquez. Those starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been somewhat shaky in adjusting to life without the departed Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.

The Indians’ relief unit has taken enormous steps forward since 2018, on the other hand. It’s the rest of their roster that has gone backward. Top starters Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger have either battled serious injuries/illnesses or drastically underachieved. Francisco Lindor is having another great year, but his pal Jose Ramirez has gone from an MVP-level player to someone who can barely lift his OPS over .600. Michael Brantley’s now in Houston, replaced by players who have been incapable of matching his 2018 production. Jason Kipnis has been horrific, and the Indians’ offseason decision to trade Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauers simply hasn’t worked out to this point.

The Indians’ mediocre play has left them a whopping 10 1/2 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. As a result, the Tribe may have to consider making some difficult decisions this summer as the July 31 trade deadline draws nearer. For now, though, the Indians are very much in the wild-card hunt, behind the surprising Rangers by a game and a half. Boston’s even closer to Texas, which it trails by one and began a four-game series against Monday, but might have trouble overcoming the seven-game advantage the Rays and Yankees have built in the AL East. By the time the regular season wraps up, do you expect the Indians and Red Sox to be part of the league’s playoff field?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Shopping Matthew Boyd

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The Tigers may have helped develop a front-line starter in left-hander Matthew Boyd, whom they acquired from the Blue Jays in a deal for David Price in July 2015. At the time, fellow southpaw prospect Daniel Norris was seen as the best part of the Tigers’ three-player return, but it’s Boyd who has since emerged as the superior major leaguer. Now, with the noncompetitive Tigers amid a rebuild and not likely to return to contention in the near future, they may have to consider trading Boyd this summer.

Boyd debuted with the Blue Jays the same season as the trade and wound up turning in 57 1/3 innings of 7.53 ERA/6.59 FIP ball between Toronto and Detroit. He was much better over the next three seasons, including when he totaled 4.3 fWAR in 305 1/3 frames from 2017-18, yet still didn’t look like much more than an average starter. But Boyd has found another gear in 2019 – his age-28 season.

Across 83 2/3 innings this year, Boyd has already put up a career-best fWAR (2.8) that trails only Max Scherzer among starters. Thanks in part to a lethal fastball-slider combo, Boyd’s also third in the league in K/BB ratio (6.93), sixth in K/9 (11.16) and BB/9 (1.61), eighth in FIP (2.93), 15th in ERA (3.12) and swinging-strike percentage (13.4), and 25th in contact rate (73.2). Furthermore, there’s almost zero difference between Boyd’s weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.272 versus .271).

Based on his production to date, the 2019 version of Boyd has been an ace – and a cheap one at that. Relative to his performance, Boyd is earning a pittance ($2.6MM) in his first of four potential arbitration-eligible years. Considering Boyd is breaking through as a top-flight starter who’s under control through 2022, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Tigers go forward with him. That said, there’s a case for Detroit to cash in its best trade chip this summer, when Boyd would outrank Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner and others as the most desirable starter on the block.

Even with Boyd in the fold, it doesn’t look as if the Tigers have nearly enough quality building blocks in the majors or minors to work their way back into contention over the next couple years. There’s hope in the Tigers’ starting staff in the form of Boyd, Norris and Spencer Turnbull. But the team’s premier reliever, Shane Greene, isn’t signed past this season and may find himself on another roster in the coming weeks. Switching to the offensive side, Brandon Dixon and Nicholas Castellanos have been the Tigers’ only league-average batters this season. The 27-year-old Dixon has struck out 37 times and drawn three walks in 98 plate appearances, indicating his bubble’s going to burst. We know Castellanos can hit, but he’s a free agent-to-be whose overall value is limited by his defensive shortcomings. Down on the farm, the Tigers do have prized righty Casey Mize – the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft – but Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs still don’t see a special system in place.

While the Tigers don’t boast an elite collection of farmhands, trading Boyd would change that to a certain extent. He’d command a massive return right now, though it would be an agonizing call on the Tigers’ part to let him go. However, with Boyd’s value perhaps at its zenith and Detroit seemingly not nearing a return to relevance, general manager Al Avila may have to think about putting his club’s ace on the block. What would you do in Avila’s position?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: The Braves & Dallas Keuchel

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The Braves are reportedly in the driver’s seat to land free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who they hope would provide a significant in-season boost to a so-so rotation. Aside from Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran, no one in Atlanta’s starting five has performed all that well this year. Even Fried’s bubble has burst to some degree since a tremendous start to the season, while Teheran’s peripherals provide far less hope than his sterling 3.28 ERA.

Beyond Soroka, Fried and Teheran, 2018 summer acquisition Kevin Gausman, ’18 standout Mike Foltynewicz, and youngsters Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson are the only other Braves who have made starts this season. Gausman has long been a credible starter, but he has pitched to a hideous 6.15 ERA (albeit with a much rosier 4.03 FIP); Foltynewicz’s 6.10 ERA actually sits well ahead of his awful 6.68 FIP; and Newcomb and Toussaint are now functioning as relievers, serving as two of the most reliable options in an Atlanta bullpen that has endured no shortage of down moments in 2019.

Considering the difficulties of their pitching staff this year, it’s no surprise the Braves are pursuing Keuchel. The latest reports indicate the Braves could reel in Keuchel on a multiyear deal. Earlier this week, though, there were rumblings indicating the Braves weren’t keen on paying Keuchel the prorated portion of the $17.5MM qualifying offer ($11MM-plus) that he rejected at the outset of the offseason. Potential price aside, the Braves will have to ask themselves a.) how long it’ll take for Keuchel to get ready and b.) how effective he’ll be after sitting out several months.

Former Braves/Padres/Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel just agreed to terms with the Cubs on Wednesday after a long free-agent trip of his own, and it’s likely he’ll be prepared to join Chicago within the next couple weeks. A similar time frame may be in the cards for Keuchel, who has been throwing sim games of at least 95 pitches in recent weeks as he waits for his next opportunity.

As for his on-field performance, Keuchel has generally been excellent since he broke out in 2014 – the year before he won his lone AL Cy Young Award. However, the longtime Astro did see his strikeout, groundball and run prevention numbers drop off to certain degrees in 2018. Having totaled fewer than seven strikeouts per nine a year ago, it’s fair to guess the quality of defense behind Keuchel will play a key role in his ability to stymie opposing offenses this season. With that in mind, it’s important to note the Braves’ defense has been one of the one of the worst in the majors on grounders in 2019.

Defensive concerns aside, it’s worth pointing out signing Keuchel would only cost the Braves money. As everyone who has paid close attention to his free-agent journey knows, inking Keuchel before June 2 would have meant surrendering both draft compensation and cash. Nevertheless, if you’re a Braves fan, perhaps you’d rather see them give up talent from their farm system in a trade for a starter (Madison Bumgarner? Marcus Stroman?) than sign Keuchel. The reigning NL East champion Braves are two games out of their division lead right now, so they may have to get this decision right if they’re going to overtake the first-place Phillies.

(Poll link for app users)

Grade The Cubs’ Signing Of Craig Kimbrel

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It took some time, but one of the game’s greatest relief pitchers finally found a home with the Cubs after shedding the draft compensation that attached when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. The Boston organization won’t get a draft pick for letting Craig Kimbrel walk, and the Chicago club won’t have to part with one. The Cubbies will, however, pay Kimbrel $10MM for his services down the stretch and $32MM for two more campaigns (along with a $1MM buyout or $16MM vesting/club option for another).

On the one hand, it’s notable that Kimbrel was still able to secure a significant, multi-year guarantee at this stage of the season. On the other … well, this still feels light. Entering the offseason, following some late-season stumbles from Kimbrel, we predicted $70MM over four years. That was stepped down from what might have been anticipated entering the 2019 campaign; after all, Kimbrel’s 2018 effort was among his most dominant. There were risks, sure, but that’s why we guessed a four instead of a five-year pact.

Kimbrel isn’t going to pitch for the Cubs for the entirety of this season, so there’s a reduction in price there. Even accounting for that, this contract still falls shy of the one the Rockies gave Wade Davis in the 2017-18 offseason. That three-year, $52MM pact (with a fourth-year vesting/club option) seemed like an obvious floor for Kimbrel. After all, Davis was an older pitcher who couldn’t match Kimbrel’s levels of dominance. And the Davis contract was signed even though it cost the Rox a second-round draft choice.

While it’s certainly hard to fault Kimbrel for preferring the best-available multi-year arrangement at this stage, he’s probably leaving some upside on the table by taking that route now rather than going for a pure rental agreement. It’s also still a significant commitment for a Cubs team that declared itself out of money over the winter but found some in the interim (in some part through an unusual situation with an expensive veteran). This isn’t a risk-free transaction; far from it, particularly given Kimbrel’s most recent on-field showing and the fact that he’ll be ramping up in the middle of an ongoing season.

How do you grade the signing from the team’s perspective?

(Poll link for app users.)

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