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MLBTR Poll: Best Value On A High-AAV, Two-Year Deal

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Scanning down the board of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, it’s easy to identify the large group of players who were good enough to command annual salaries approaching or exceeding ten million dollars, but as to whom contract length was in question entering the winter. Many of those players, in fact, have already agreed to terms.

With the dust having settled for such a large portion of the market, I thought it’d be interesting to see how MLBTR’s readership views some of those contracts. In making predictions on these players, we thought long and hard about where the deal would end up, often focusing on the question whether the player could secure a third guaranteed season. Some did; some didn’t.

Here, we’ll focus on those players who ended up with two-year contracts, when it seemed at least possible at the outset of the market that a lengthier deal would be available. The question is: which of these deals looks like the best buy for the team in question? (Response order randomized; link for app users.)

Poll: The LeMahieu And Lowrie Signings

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On Thursday, news broke that the Mets, one of the few teams who’d continued to kindle the Hot Stove throughout the winter, were again firing up, with the signing of 34-year-old Jed Lowrie. And then on Friday, amidst a chaotic deluge of arbitration settlements, the Yankees added to perhaps the league’s most crowded infield mix, signing second baseman (and now, perhaps, utility infielder) DJ LeMahieu.

On the surface, both deals were head-scratchers: the Mets, of course, just replaced a pop-up option at the keystone with a potential hall-of-famer, and already seemed set at third and short. First base was tentatively reserved for a Peter Alonso/Dominic Smith/J.D. Davis mix, and the team had spent much of this month assembling depth options of every sort. So where would Lowrie fit? And why wouldn’t the team have used its (ostensibly) few remaining resources where it needed it most, viz. in center field, or to tighten a loose mid-relief corps?

The Yankees, then, may have seized the enigmatic upper hand with Friday’s LeMahieu signing. Gleyber Torres, an early-season option at shortstop during Didi Gregorius’ absence, looked to have second-base on lock for the next half-dozen years at least, and the team has young, good, and very cheap options at the corner spots.  Plus, there’s the addition of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, brought in to hold down the early-season fort if he can make his way to the field, who seemed interested in New York only because of its clear path to playing time. LeMahieu has played positions other than his native second before, but none since 2014, since which time he’s entrenched himself as (arguably) the game’s premier defender at the position. Utility men don’t typically make $12MM a year, especially on the heels of two below-league-average offensive seasons, so perhaps the signing is a mere precursor to a move on a larger scale.

Lowrie has been excellent over the last two seasons, accruing 8.5 fWAR in 310 games. He appeared in more games last season, though, than he did from 2015-16, and nearly as many games in ’17 as he did from ’10-’12. Injuries have always been a major part of the profile, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old had mostly dropped the utility moniker in recent years, appearing only in cameo roles at positions other than second. So where will the team deploy him?  Third base is an option, but that’d move Todd Frazier to first, where, after three middling offensive seasons, he seems a disjointed fit at best. Such a move, too, would likely keep Peter Alonso in the minors, where the recurrence of a demolition tour would seem of little benefit to anyone. Lowrie probably doesn’t have the range for short at this point in his career, and a utility role wouldn’t be appropriate for someone of his pay grade. Perhaps Frazier will shift full-time to the bench, where the club already has much younger and much cheaper options, or is sent away in a back-page trade, netting a fringe return at best. Steamer, for its part, forecasts Lowrie to be just two percent better offensively than Frazier next season, so hoping for a straight upgrade seems presumptuous.

LeMahieu is part of the rare breed, since Statcast data was made public, to post well-above-average exit velocities and a well-below-average launch angle. The combo works for Christian Yelich, but for most others – Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond – it spells disaster. If the Yanks can rework LeMahieu’s swing – he already boasts an opposite-field-dominated approach that should fit perfectly in their park – and transplant his defensive wizardry at second to another position(s), the club may have a bargain on its hand, but such an outcome seems unlikely. He doesn’t fit at first, and the club has now lost leverage in a potential Miguel Andujar trade. If the rookie-of-the-year runner-up can shore-up his defensive woes and find a bit better control of the strike zone, the Yankees are looking at a perennial all-star. With a value nowhere near his potential peak, shipping out Andujar now – or moving him to first base – seems altogether shortsighted.

Do you like the respective moves? Pick your answer in the poll below.

Looking At The Best Remaining Landing Spots For A.J. Pollock

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It was far from clear last winter when and where Lorenzo Cain would sign. Still, his status as the lone standout center fielder on the market gave confidence that he’d ultimately find a solid deal. That’s ultimately just what happened, as Cain landed just above MLBTR’s prediction (4/$70MM) with a five-year, $80MM pact.

This time around, A.J. Pollock entered the market without a terribly clear outlook. As with Cain, it was possible to imagine quite a few teams signing him, but hard to point to any particularly obvious fits. Likewise, he’s also obviously the best-available, up-the-middle outfield option. Pollock’s checkered health background led MLBTR to predict a contract of four years and $60MM, even though he has the edge on Cain in age.

So, how do things look now that the calendar has flipped to 2019? Though Pollock remains unsigned, the market has changed shape around him.

Several teams that seemed to be suitors may no longer be. Having signed Michael Brantley, the Astros don’t appear to be much of a fit. While the Mets would surely still like to upgrade, they seem to be limited financially from doing so, with the team evidently choosing to rely on bounceback candidates Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton up the middle. The Reds have added two veteran outfielders; if they were ever a likely suitor, they probably aren’t now.

It’s questionable, perhaps, whether the White Sox are still a plausible landing spot. On the one hand, the club just reached agreement with veteran Jon Jay, who has spent most of his career patrolling center. Of course, he’d also be a plausible corner piece. And it’s fair to wonder what the Chicago front office will do if it fails to land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. There still seem to be some scenarios where Pollock fits, depending upon how aggressive the organization ends up being.

Of course, the South Siders’ decisionmaking will surely also include reference to their division rivals in Cleveland. While the Indians have focused to this point on clearing salary, and may not be interested in adding any back, it’s also possible that they’ll find a way to squeeze in a significant contract. Pollock remains a strong roster fit, though the club does not need to focus up the middle specifically with Leonys Martin on hand.

The National League East also has a few possible landing spots. While the Phillies are weighing more significant additions, the team could still check back in after the Harper/Machado situations have further evolved. Innumerable possibilities — and lots of dollars — remain available to the Phils. It is less clear that the Braves will have the need and the willingness to chase down Pollock at this point, though they have been connected in the past. The club has other options up the middle, but could like the idea of utilizing Pollock at times in the corners while forming a ball-hawing, still offensively-capable outfield unit. Given the Atlanta organization’s recent history, though, it seems unlikely that it’ll chase the market.

Out west, the fit is yet more speculative. The Giants have long made some sense but aren’t exactly playing an active role in the offseason to this point. It’s possible to imagine a deal, but new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt realistic about the organization’s immediate outlook and will surely prefer not to tie up future payroll. There’s certainly a way to imagine the division-favorite Dodgers as a landing spot, particularly after the club dealt away a pair of right-handed-hitting outfielders, but signing a sizable deal with Pollock doesn’t really match the front office’s recent approach. Plus, Chris Taylor remains available as a right-handed-hitting center fielder.

Beyond those clubs, there are a few others that could be matches — but only if you squint. Pollock would be a luxury for the Rockies or Angels, but with other priorities and limitations those hopeful contenders likely won’t consider him at full price. The D-Backs would surely like to have Pollock back, but only at a discount. The Tigers or Rangers could still surprise, perhaps, as both have ample spending capacity against their historical levels, but there’s no reason at this point to believe that either club will hand out a long-term deal with little in the way of 2019 hopes and dreams. While the Athletics may or may not believe Ramon Laureano is ready to hold down near-everyday duties in center, they’re unlikely to allocate significant resources to the outfield with so many right-handed-hitting outfield options already available and ongoing rotation needs.

Given those considerations, where do you think Pollock is likeliest to land at this point? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: The Mariners’ Direction

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The 2018 Mariners piled up 89 wins, their most victories in a season since 2003, but the club still extended its playoff drought to 17 years. No North American pro sports franchise owns a longer postseason-less streak than the Mariners, who have elected to radically reconstruct their major league roster and minor league farm system over the past couple months. Believing the Mariners were neither good enough to compete for a title nor bad enough to bottom out with the talent they had, general manager Jerry Dipoto set out to “re-imagine” their roster this winter. Dipoto has done just that in ultra-aggressive fashion, having traded one familiar veteran after another in hopes of assembling a roster capable of striving for relevance as early as 2020 or ’21.

Dating back to Nov. 8, the Mariners have shipped out catcher Mike Zunino, left-hander James Paxton, second baseman Robinson Cano, shortstop Jean Segura, first baseman Carlos Santana (acquired for Segura), outfielders Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia, and relievers Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, Alex Colome and James Pazos. In return, the Mariners have received a few 30-something veterans (first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, outfielder Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak), substantial salary relief (including $64MM from the Cano trade) and a host of potential long-term pieces. The team’s hope is that recently acquired outfielder Mallex Smith, catcher Omar Narvaez, shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Domingo Santana – all major leaguers who are controllable for three or more years – will be part of the solution for the foreseeable future, and it has the same plan for the bevy of prospects it has landed in its multitude of recent trades.

Prior to Dipoto’s November/December transactions spree, the Mariners had the majors’ worst farm system and none of MLB.com’s top-1oo prospects. But they got three such farmhands – lefty Justus Sheffield (No. 31), outfielder Jarred Kelenic (No. 62) and righty Justin Dunn (No. 89) – in those trades. Unsurprisingly, thanks to the additions of Sheffield, Kelenic, Dunn and an array of other prospects, the Mariners now boast one of the majors’ most improved systems, per Jim Callis of MLB.com.

Adding to the long-term optimism, the Mariners made a major strike in free agency to kick off the New Year when they signed Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi. While Kikuchi’s not on the level of countryman Shohei Ohtani, whom Dipoto badly wanted last winter before he signed with the division-rival Angels, he could nonetheless be a game-changing acquisition. Kikuchi will slot in near the top of the Mariners’ rotation immediately, and at 27, he’s young enough and controllable for long enough (possibly through 2025) that he could be a key factor for perennially contending Seattle clubs. The same applies to Smith, Narvaez, Crawford, Santana, Sheffield, Kelenic, Dunn (and the other acquired prospects), not to mention outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-hander Marco Gonzales.

Haniger and Gonzales – each controllable for the next handful of years – stand out as the most valuable players remaining from last season’s Mariners team. Both players, especially Haniger, no doubt possess high trade value, but it seems they’ll remain on hand as prominent members of Seattle’s next core. Still, with several other trade candidates on the roster (Encarnacion, Bruce, Swarzak, second baseman Dee Gordon, third baseman Kyle Seager and righty Mike Leake), the ever-active Dipoto may not be done flipping veterans for prospects and/or future salary room in advance of next season.

No matter what happens between now and Opening Day, the Mariners’ 2019 roster will look far different than it did last year, when the club tallied the majors’ 11th-most wins but once again fell short of a playoff spot. Are you on board with Seattle’s decision to take a step back in 2019 with the goal of becoming a perennial contender thereafter? Or should Dipoto & Co. have taken more of a win-now approach this winter in an effort to snap the team’s embarrassing playoff drought next season?

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Yasmani Grandal’s Next Contract

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Yasmani Grandal entered free agency as the clear-cut best catcher on the open market, but he remains without a job nearly two months after the offseason began. Part of that seems to be Grandal’s own doing, as the longtime Dodger reportedly turned down a generous proposal from the Mets – a four-year, $60MM offer. In the wake of Grandal’s rejection, the Mets pivoted to the No. 2 catcher in free agency, Wilson Ramos, whom they reeled in on a two-year, $19MM guarantee.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Grandal would score a four-year, $64MM contract and listed the Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Angels, Phillies, Braves and Rockies as potential suitors. The Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Philllies and Rockies could still be in the mix for the 30-year-old Grandal, though at least some of those teams may prefer to swing a deal for Marlins trade chip J.T. Realmuto.

It’s doubtful the other clubs are in on Grandal, on the other hand. The Nationals have already added Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki this winter, thus taking them out of the running for free-agent catchers who will garner major league contracts and Realmuto. The Rangers could still use a catcher, having parted with Robinson Chirinos at the start of the offseason and signed the offensively challenged Jeff Mathis, but it would be surprising to see the rebuilding franchise spend big on a 30-something player. The Angels showed interest in Grandal earlier this month, but they may be out of the equation after signing free agent Jonathan Lucroy on Friday. The Braves, meanwhile, re-signed Tyler Flowers toward the end of last season and then reunited with Brian McCann on a $2MM guarantee in free agency, giving them a pair of respected veterans.

While at least a few of the above teams may be eyeing Grandal, the only ones that have actually shown reported interest in him this winter have been the Dodgers, Reds, White Sox and the aforementioned Mets, Astros and Angels. It doesn’t appear Grandal’s going to return to the Dodgers in 2019, though, considering multiple reports have indicated they aren’t keen on bringing him back on anything other than a short-term deal. The White Sox have signed James McCann since they were first publicly connected to Grandal, and they also have capable veteran backstop Welington Castillo on hand. Cincinnati, which selected Grandal 12th overall in the 2010 draft, may still be a candidate to sign him, but it has a passable, low-cost starter in Tucker Barnhart and seems more focused on upgrading its rotation than its situation behind the plate.

The Dodgers already tried to bring Grandal back in 2019 on a $17.9MM qualifying offer, but he declined it, meaning it would cost a team significant major league payroll space, a draft pick and international bonus pool allotments to sign him. Grandal’s status as a QO recipient takes away from his appeal to some degree, yet he has nonetheless been among the majors’ most accomplished catchers over the past several years.

Since 2014, which he spent with the Padres, the switch-hitting Grandal ranks top five at his position in home runs (104; third), wRC+ (115; third) and fWAR (12.2; fifth). And while Grandal had some well-documented problems as a defender in the 2018 postseason, he’s still a highly regarded pitch framer who has thrown out a roughly league-average percentage of base stealers in his career. Clearly, then, Grandal shouldn’t have trouble finding a lucrative contract prior to next season. But it’s an open question whether he erred in saying no to the Mets’ $60MM offer.

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: The Padres’ Offseason Approach

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The Padres, owners of one 90-win season in the last two decades, remain mired in the latest iteration of what has amounted, over the club’s 50-year history, to something approximating a near-interminable rebuild.  This time, though, the club hasn’t taken half-measures, having carefully assembled a lot of prospects to rival any in the game’s history: indeed, by FanGraphs’ latest count, San Diego has a staggering 46 players who project to be major league contributors of some sort, including eight of the game’s top 75 prospects.

The major league team, though, has yet to reap the benefits. Highly touted outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot have graduated and quickly sputtered in their first exposures, and the club’s recent mound graduates, with the possible exception of the “churve”-hurling Joey Lucchesi, seem more of the back-end variety. The richly-paid duo of Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer has also failed to impress, with the latter riding his grounder-heavy ways to a near-replacement-level season for the fourth time in seven years, and the former posting a combined 2.3 fWAR since signing a huge extension prior to the 2017 season.

Holes abound elsewhere on the diamond: Myers, at midseason, tried his hand at third, to mostly disastrous results, and the club received meager-at-best production up the middle (though blue-chip prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias are knocking loudly at the door). Franmil Reyes did open eyes in limited ’18 action, but he hardly seems suited for a corner-outfield spot, and his minor league numbers, in six seasons before last season’s AAA breakout, leave little by which to be encouraged (ditto Franchy Cordero). Catcher remains an issue, though Austin Hedges did show signs in the season’s second half.

On the mound, the club can hang its hat only on its always-stellar bullpen, with Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Jose Castillo, and Matt Strahm (who seems ticketed for a rotation audition in the Spring) all posting brilliant seasons in 2018. The rotation, apart from Robbie Erlin and his microscopic walk rate, was generally awful last season. Lucchesi led the charge with just 1.1 fWAR, while the rest of his rotation mates combined for a sickly 3.0 fWAR altogether. In short, it’s a team that could use an upgrade at very nearly every position on the diamond.

Still, the bleakness of the near-future outlook apparently hasn’t dissuaded the Front Office from scouring the trade market for major, short-term upgrades – in the last two months alone, the club has reportedly targeted Corey Kluber (link), Noah Syndergaard (link), J.T. Realmuto (link), and Marcus Stroman (link), among surely others.  Two of the four have exactly three years of control remaining (with Realmuto and Stroman having just two), but the Padres would be seem to be paying an unnecessary premium on the stars to contribute in 2019 and 2020, years in which the club has seemingly little chance to compete.

Does this strategy make sense?  Could the big-league ready prospects couple with the bonafide stars to form a legitimate contender in the next two seasons?  Or would the club be best-served to wait, see how their current crop progresses in the upcoming season, and re-evaluate in a year from now?  Pick your answer in the poll below.

Poll: Will The Indians Trade Corey Kluber?

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Entering the winter, it seemed to be a rather bleak trade market for starting pitching. That changed a bit when the Mariners opened up James Paxton for bidding. And we’ve seen some chatter on still-excellent but super-expensive D-Backs veteran Zack Greinke, though the latest indications are he could stay put. Ivan Nova and Tanner Roark have been dealt; Sonny Gray will be; and a few other bounce-back candidates (e.g. Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray) have at least been talked about in negotiations.

There are some quality names on that list, to be sure. But none come with anywhere near the allure of Indians ace Corey Kluber, who checks more boxes than all but a few starters around the game. He’s extremely effective, with outstanding strikeout ability and elite control (career 9.8 K/9 vs. 1.9 BB/9). He’s a proven workhorse who’s rarely sidelined (five-straight 200-inning seasons). And he’s controllable at a very reasonable rate of pay ($52.5MM over three years, two via option). Though he’s already 32 years of age, that’s really the only flaw in the profile.

In some respects, it’s a total surprise to see Kluber’s name continuously run through the rumor mill. In others, it makes sense. The Indians have other needs to address and have already moved some prospect assets in recent seasons. No doubt they see the remainder of their pitching staff as an ongoing strength. And perhaps there’s also a belief that this is a clear opportunity to cash in on a not-youthful star hurler who comes with all the same risks of any other such pitcher. Indeed, at one point, it seemed nearly a fait accompli that Kluber (or rotation-mate Trevor Bauer) would be dealt this winter. Then, the Indians swung some other trades to shave payroll, perhaps enhancing their leverage with their key pitchers.

All things considered, it is presently unclear whether and how a deal might come together,. Recently, the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Reds, and Padres have been connected to Kluber to varying extents. It’s certainly not hard to imagine other clubs having interest at this stage of the winter. But the Indians surely won’t move Kluber unless they not only achieve commensurate value but also accomplish their roster goals — presumably, boosting the immediate outfield mix, trimming salary, and enhancing the organization’s long-term outlook. The ask will be high, but it surely ought to be. And teams considering Kluber won’t have any open-market alternatives, with Dallas Keuchel representing the best-available free agent hurler.

So, given where the market stands as a whole, do you think the Indians will end up dealing Kluber? (Link for app users.)

Poll: Assessing The Indians’ Outfield Situation

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Early on in the 2018-2019 offseason, I wrote that the outfield was the Indians’ biggest area of need. That was hardly a unique opinion; many around the industry have surmised the same, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Tribe can confidently go toe to toe with some notable AL rivals if their outfield picture as currently constructed doesn’t change.

Since the time of the aforementioned post, the club has watched free agent Michael Brantley sign with the Astros, while fellow outfielder Rajai Davis inked a minor-league pact with the Mets. Cleveland did pad its outfield prospect depth a bit with the acquisition of Daniel Johnson (as a component of the Yan Gomes trade with the Nationals), though he hasn’t played above Double-A and realistically only projects as a fourth outfield type. And while some might consider newcomer Jake Bauers as someone who improves the outlook there, defensive concerns there make it much more likely he’ll fulfill a first base/DH role.

All this is to say that it seems quite likely that the Indians will bring at least one more notable player into the fold. The possibility they’ll stand pat and fill all three roles internally can’t be entirely eliminated, of course, but such an approach would be irresponsible from a club trying to capitalize on a weakening window of contention. A mix-and-match crew of fourth outfielder types won’t help the club make a serious postseason run, after all. The picture is even more bleak when looking beyond the near-term, as the club’s best bet for league-average production, Leonys Martin, is set to depart in free agency next winter.

There are still some notable outfielders available on the free agent market.  Keep in mind that any speculation about whether or not the Indians will sign a full-time outfielder must be met with the caveat that the club already went through an arduous effort to trim payroll this offseason, signifying some not-insignificant financial constraints in putting together the roster for 2019. That said, there are some interesting potential fits even in the wake of Andrew McCutchen and Brantley coming off the board.

The top free agent outfielder, Bryce Harper, is light years past being a realistic target for the small-market Indians. Beyond him, the next-best free agent outfielder available is A.J. Pollock. Any realistic pursuit of Pollock would probably involve some additional payroll maneuvering, but the Indians have shown a willingness to pony up, relatively speaking, for talented hitters in recent years (most notably Edwin Encarnacion). If Pollock’s contract ask comes down to four or even three years, he’d be an excellent fit for the Tribe. Marwin Gonzalez is the most talented alternative, and while he’d be paid at least in part for his defensive versatility, his projected contract could be palatable for the Tribe.

Looking at the lower tiers of the free agent market, the Indians could take a chance on the moderate upside of Nick Markakis or Adam Jones. Such a move could provide clubhouse intangibles in addition to a stable fixture at an outfield corner. On the whole, though, it would commit a disproportionate amount of the club’s available finances in order to make a marginal upgrade. Worth mentioning: with some bullpen issues to address, the payroll consequences of the options in free agency shouldn’t be overlooked.

The Indians have a much wider (and more efficient) array of options on the trade market. With excessive rotation depth and some interesting prospects on the farm, the Tribe has the unique ability to appeal to rebuilding clubs and fellow contenders alike. There’s certainly been no shortage of rumors involving the Indians and rival clubs with outfield depth.

The most serious rumblings to date have been centered around Dodgers prospect Alex Verdugo. The price would be a steep one, as the structures discussed would involve the Tribe sending two-time Cy Young Award-Winner Corey Kluber to Los Angeles for Verdugo and (presumably) other pieces. The Indians have also been connected to Reds prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammel, though Cincinnati’s recent acquisition of Alex Wood might reduce their need for rotation pieces at this juncture.

The Phillies and Brewers are the only other teams who’ve been definitively connected to the Indians in trade rumors, though that doesn’t necessarily mean that other talks haven’t taken place. Speculatively speaking, rebuilding clubs like the Rangers (with whom the Indians recently discussed a trade involving Joey Gallo) could be interested in some of the Tribe’s high-ceiling talent in the lower minors.

The recap above being fairly comprehensive, we’ll turn the discussion over to the readers at this point. How do you think the Indians will address their outfield need? (poll link for app users)

Poll: Projecting Gary Sanchez’s 2019

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With the New Year approaching, the focus in Yankees Universe continues to be on whether the club will sign Manny Machado, the transcendent, polarizing free agent who’d provide an enormous boost to the left side of its infield. However, regardless of whether Machado heads to the Bronx, it’s fair to say the Yankees won’t reach their peak potential in 2019 without a bounce-back effort from their most polarizing star, catcher Gary Sanchez.

An elite prospect throughout his time in the Yankees’ system, Sanchez burst on the scene in 2016, his abbreviated rookie season. After the Yankees promoted him for full-time duty that August, Sanchez proceeded to swat an astounding 20 home runs in just 229 plate appearances and tie Mike Trout for the majors’ best wRC+ (170). Sanchez came back to earth the next year – his first full campaign – to some degree, though he still left the yard 33 times and registered a 129 wRC+ over 525 PAs.

Based on Sanchez’s output during his initial two seasons, there was little reason to doubt he’d continue serving as one of the Yankees’ cornerstones (and one of the game’s foremost catchers) last year. Instead, Sanchez never really got off the ground during what proved to be an injury-shortened, 89-game campaign, as he slashed a mere .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 PAs. Not only did Sanchez’s newfound offensive struggles frustrate fans, but so did his oft-maligned defense. For the second straight year, Sanchez finished with the American League’s most passed balls (18), which also ranked last in the majors. Unsurprisingly, then, he rated poorly as a blocker at Baseball Prospectus, which graded him second last in that department.

Despite Sanchez’s woes in 2018, general manager Brian Cashman was steadfast in defending the backstop throughout the season, telling anyone who’d listen the Yankees have a franchise catcher on their hands. That hasn’t stopped this offseason, even though trade rumors featuring Sanchez have been plentiful. Earlier this month, Cashman told Jack Curry of the YES Network that Sanchez is “not for sale,” adding that the Yankees expect they’ll be “proven correct” that he’s a foundational piece.

If we’re to take Cashman at his word, it’ll continue to be Sanchez donning the tools of ignorance for the Yankees in 2019 – not a trade possibility like the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto or the No. 1 free agent available, Yasmani Grandal. Both Realmuto and Grandal outclassed Sanchez last year, but before the latter’s Murphy’s Law 2018, he belonged in the discussion with those two and the game’s other top catchers. It’s understandable Yankees brass has the 26-year-old Sanchez’s back, then, and it becomes easier to see why when considering some of his underlying numbers from last season.

Sure, Sanchez’s overall offensive production was a colossal disappointment, but it still came with some encouraging signs. He continued to flash prodigious power, totaling 18 homers and logging a .220 ISO (well above the league average of .161). Further, compared to his previous two seasons, there weren’t any alarming trends in Sanchez’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase or contact rates. When Sanchez did put the bat on the ball, he often made it count, as he placed fifth in the majors in average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls (97.7 mph) and 19th in barrels per plate appearance (tying a pretty good duo consisting of teammate Aaron Judge and the Braves’ Ronald Acuna). Sanchez’s ability to make hard contact helped lead to a solid expected weighted on-base average (.343) which easily outdid his real wOBA (.304).

So what went wrong? Poor fortune seems largely to blame, given that Sanchez managed a meager .197 batting average on balls in play – down 111 points from the more normal-looking .308 mark he recorded between 2016-17. Granted, Sanchez didn’t help his cause by hitting far fewer line drives and far more pop-ups than he did in 2017. Sanchez’s 19.2 percent infield fly rate ranked last among qualified hitters, and because a pop-up is essentially an automatic out, that’s going to have to change going forward.

As for Sanchez’s work behind the plate, perhaps it’s unfair to regard his presence as disastrous to the Yankees’ defensive efforts. For one, the cannon-armed Sanchez caught at least 30 percent of would-be base stealers for the third consecutive year. And while blocking pitches has been a problem for Sanchez, Baseball Prospectus has assigned him high framing marks to this point. The outlet did hand Sanchez a negative overall grade in its Fielding Runs Above Average metric last season, though there were still plenty of worse catchers (admittedly, that’s faint praise).

Heading into 2019, Sanchez’s final pre-arbitration season, there’s clearly ample room for improvement both at the plate and behind it. Whether Sanchez will take the field on Opening Day is in question, though, as he’s only about a month and a half removed from left shoulder surgery. Sanchez’s shoulder – which had been an issue since 2017 – may have helped lead to his downfall last year, and if his recovery goes well, there are legitimate reasons to believe he’ll rebound in 2019. The Steamer projection system is on board, as it pegs Sanchez for 3.5 fWAR, a .245/.322/.482 line (116 wRC+) and 31 homers. How do you think he’ll fare?

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Who Won The Dodgers/Reds Trade?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds recently agreed to a seven-player trade that shook up the National League and set the rumor mill afire. In case you missed it, the deal sent the quartet of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer, plus $7MM cash to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and two prospects: Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, the Reds’ 13th and 8th ranked prospects, respectively, per Fangraphs. Reactions and analysis have landed on both sides of the ledger, though any subsequent transactions stemming from the payroll and roster changes on either side will give further cause for debate down the line.

The Reds have been vocal about upgrading no matter the cost this winter, especially for pitching, and while the additions were to presumably come via increased spending in free agency, here they explore a more creative means of adding talent. Having seen enough of Homer Bailey over the years, President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams put the $28MM owed Bailey to good use in acquiring three proven major league contributors. Under different circumstances, Williams might be praised for not handcuffing the team with future payroll obligations, but given that this deal feels in part driven by Cincinnati’s inability to attract major free agents, the one-year contracts of Puig, Kemp and Wood only highlights the lack of guaranteed long-term value in the return.

The primary critique here for the Reds is that they surrendered twelve total years of control in Downs and Gray, who slot in as the Dodgers’ new #7 and #16 ranked prospects, per MLB.com. The complete absence of guaranteed future value puts a lot of pressure on the team to capitalize in 2019, a real challenge coming off a 95-loss season. Should Puig, Kemp and Wood walk at the end of the year, they will have surrendered legitimate future talent for a trio that’s not likely to pull them from the depths of the NL Central. Even if the Reds do surprise this season and leapfrog the Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, they still could lose this trio to free agency and be worse off for the future than they were before their acquisition.

On the other hand, attendance has waned at Great American Ballpark. Puig’s power and personality both ought to play well there and give fans something to root for. Further, if for instance, they’ve been unable to get much traction on this year’s crop of lefty free agent starters, then having a one year head start with Wood might be the best way to sign him long-term in Cincinnati. Prospects are high-risk assets, and it could be the Reds don’t believe the future value of Downs and Gray is all that high. Or, they might be banking on getting better prospect value in return at the trade deadline should the Reds fall out of contention early. There’s a lot of speculation above, but the fact is the Reds front office found a way to turn Homey Bailey into two exciting, productive players/trade chips (plus Matt Kemp).

For the Dodgers, they jettisoned 6 fWAR from their 2018 pennant winning team for $28MM in dead money and a pair of prospects. If they don’t turn around and use the cost savings in free agency, that’s a lot of talent to send away just so their billionaire owners can avoid paying the luxury tax. For all Puig’s antics, he brought real fire to the club, and in his six seasons with the team, not only did he accumulate 16.8 fWAR, but they won the NL West in each of those six seasons. As for Wood, one could argue there’s a lot of uncertainty around the lefties remaining in the Dodger rotation: Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu have not been fully healthy, Rich Hill, 38, is a full decade older than Wood and Julio Urias, 22, may be ready to step into the rotation, but after missing almost all of 2018, he’s far from a sure thing. Wood has his own injury history, but he is a proven asset when healthy, which he has been of late, and he carries a career 3.29 ERA (3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). As the adage goes, you can never have enough pitching.

On the other hand, the Dodgers added two pretty decent prospects and slipped below the tax line (for now) while dealing from areas of depth. The outfield was log-jammed anyway with Kemp and Puig. Without them, there should be enough at bats to go around for Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and Cody Bellinger. Plus, top prospect Alex Verdugo, still only 22, may finally have the opportunity to shine at the big league level. As for the rotation, add Walker Buehler and Kenta Maeda to the names above and the Dodgers have enough top-of-the-line starting pitching to enter 2019 even if they decide to pocket the savings from this deal. Kemp and Puig were fun, but they were volatile on-field assets who were going to siphon at bats from the younger, higher upside outfielders (namely, Bellinger and Verdugo) already on the roster.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Bryce Harper. Heads were immediately sent spinning with the possibility of this move being a precursor to the Dodgers signing Harper in free agency, and what’s worse – that makes a lot of sense. They cleared payroll space and positional opportunity, in doing so creating the market/payroll/need fit that previously didn’t seem to exist for Harper. The White Sox and Phillies are ready to spend, but they likely can’t compete with a fully armed Los Angeles payroll. The Cubs are said to be watching, the Nationals haven’t given up on him in theory, and nobody believes the Yankees when they say they aren’t interested, which is, in-and-of-itself, a testament to how classic a suitor they really are.

This blockbuster has the makings of a touchstone moment that will, in part, define this winter’s dealings, but it’s time to see where MLBTR readers land on judging the returns. Does the flexibility this deal affords the Dodgers make them the winners? Or did the Reds take advantage of the Dodgers desire to shed some payroll and walk away with the better return? Let us know your Dodgers grade, your Reds grade, and who you think “won the deal” in this poll.

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