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MLBTR Poll: CC Sabathia’s Hall Of Fame Case

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If his longstanding plan to retire at season’s end holds up, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has thrown the last pitch of his illustrious career. The 39-year-old suffered a shoulder injury during a relief appearance in New York’s Game 4 loss to Houston on Thursday, forcing the Yankees to pull him from their ALCS roster. That means even if the Yankees manage to overcome what’s now a 3-2 deficit against the mighty Astros to advance to the World Series, Sabathia won’t be eligible to participate in the Fall Classic.

Sabathia’s left to root for the Yankees to win it all without his help, though he told reporters it’s “kind of fitting” he’s going out this way. “I threw until I couldn’t anymore,” said Sabathia, whose left arm has been through the wringer since he debuted with the Indians back in 2001.

Between the regular season and the playoffs, Sabathia has amassed 3,707 2/3 innings. Also a former Brewer, whom he all but dragged to the playoffs in 2008 after they acquired him from the Indians, Sabathia has eclipsed 200 frames in eight different regular seasons. He fired 241 (the second-highest mark of his career) in 2007, his lone Cy Young-winning campaign.

Various injuries robbed Sabathia of the chance for another workhorse-type season in 2019, as he racked up a career-low 107 1/3 innings during his uncharacteristically ineffective swan song. Sabathia only pitched to a 4.95 ERA/5.66 FIP, but a subpar final season hardly overshadows the rest of a brilliant run in the majors. Owner of a lifetime 3.74 ERA/3.78 FIP, Sabathia’s going out as one of the premier starters in recent memory, giving him a legitimate chance for enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

The question now is whether Sabathia should end up in Cooperstown, where he could earn a coveted plaque as early as 2025. As someone who ranks 16th all-time in strikeouts (3,093), 37th in pitcher fWAR (66.5), 48th in wins (251), 49th in pitcher bWAR (62.5) and 64th in regular-season innings (3,577 1/3), the credentials for strong consideration exist. He’s also a six-time All-Star, a one-time World Series champion (2009, when he was integral in the Yankees’ most recent title run) and, if it matters for his HOF odds, a revered teammate and leader. Whether all of that makes him a Hall of Famer is up for debate. What do you think?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: The Phillies’ Managerial Finalists

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The Phillies’ managerial search appears to be down to three candidates, who combine for 53 years of experience at running a Major League team.  Gabe Kapler was a first-time manager who took an analytics-heavy approach to his role as the Phils’ skipper, though after two disappointing years, Kapler was fired to make way for a more seasoned hand in the dugout.  This isn’t to say that Dusty Baker, Joe Girardi, or Buck Showalter aren’t open to modern ideas, yet it’s clear that the Phillies are looking for, in the words of the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen, a mix of “analytics and tradition.”

While it could be argued how “new school” or “old school” the three candidates are, one thing is for certain — Baker, Girardi, and Showalter all have outstanding track records.

Baker: 1863-1636 record over 22 seasons managing the Giants (1993-2002), Cubs (2003-06), Reds (2008-13), and Nationals (2016-17); 14 winning seasons; eight postseason appearances, seven division titles, one league pennant

Girardi: 988-794 record over 11 seasons managing the Marlins (2006) and Yankees (2008-17); 10 winning seasons; six postseason appearances, three division titles, one World Series championship

Showalter: 1551-1517 record over 20 seasons managing the Yankees (1992-95), Diamondbacks (1998-2000), Rangers (2003-06), Orioles (2010-18); 10 winning seasons; five postseason appearances, two division titles

Between managing contenders, also-rans, rebuilding teams, and (in Girardi’s case) World Series champions, the three skippers have basically seen it all in their careers, which should help in dealing with a Phillies team that has a lot of talent, but was also hamstrung by injuries and a lack of production in some key areas over the last two seasons.

As much as the Phillies were expected to contend this year, they haven’t yet gotten into that tier of the sport’s top teams — which is nothing unusual for Baker and Showalter, who have each molded losing teams into playoff contenders on multiple occasions.  Girardi didn’t exactly have the same rebuilding experience when he took over the consistently-winning Yankees following Joe Torre’s departure, though he withstood a decade in the Bronx pressure cooker, and kept the Yankees above .500 from 2013-16 during what counts, by New York’s standards, as a rebuilding period (only one postseason appearance in those four years).

If you ran the Phillies, which of these three managers would you hire to get your team over the top?  (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Joe Maddon’s Angels Tenure

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Setting aside his fill-in work with the Angels earlier in his career, Joe Maddon has managed 14 campaigns in the majors. His club has cracked at least 90 wins in nine of those seasons and reached the postseason eight times. Whatever one thinks about the influence of a manager on the win-loss column, Maddon has undeniably piloted many a high-flying aircraft.

Maddon oversaw two lean years with the Rays before leaping from 66 wins to 97 and helping to shape the team into a perennial contender. He was brought in somewhat later in the process with the Cubs. In Chicago, he was tasked with vaulting a club brimming with young talent — but coming off of five-straight fifth-place finishes — into a new stratosphere. In his first year, Maddon flipped a 73-89 record into 97-65.

There are similarities and differences in his new gig. Maddon’s marching orders are essentially the same: replicate those 31-win (Rays) and 24-win (Cubs) bounces with the Halos. It’ll take something nearly as dramatic to get the L.A. organization back into the postseason for the first time since 2014. The club limped to a 72-90 record in 2019 and has turned in four consecutive losing campaigns. In a stratified American League, it might take 95 or more wins to make the playoffs.

That’s not to say it’s deja vu all over again. Maddon’s new Halos team is already led by established superstars, including the game’s greatest player in Mike Trout, its most fascinating talent in Shohei Ohtani (who’ll be back on the bump in 2020), peerless defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons, and slugger Justin Upton. The L.A. organization figures to have some funds to work with this winter and has one of the game’s truly elite prospects (Jo Adell) waiting in the wings. To be sure, there are needs — all over the pitching staff and behind the dish, in particular — but there are also resources to work with and quite a lot of talent already in place.

There’ll also be expectations. Maddon is no stranger to those after five years in Chicago. But his charges fell shy in 2018 and especially 2019, the lone year in which the Maddon-led Cubs fell shy of the playoffs. Halos owner Arte Moreno is surely short on patience given what he has invested in this club. GM Billy Eppler is roster-managing for his job without a contract beyond 2020. And the clock is ticking on Trout’s twenties.

Obviously this question involves considerations that go well beyond Maddon’s managerial acumen. But his hiring begins a consequential epoch for an organization that has endured disappointment as well as recent tragedy. Maddon will be a high-profile franchise face. He’ll start out with a three-year deal at a $12MM price tag — a significant commitment, but not quite the five-year, $25MM pact that drew him to Chicago.

So … how do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: What Changed For The Nats?

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We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.

But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.

That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.

Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.

It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.

I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Executives Under Pressure

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Major League Baseball’s regular season concluded two weeks ago, though no front offices have experienced significant shakeups since then. The Red Sox shockingly fired president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in early September, less than a year after the roster he helped assemble won 108 regular-season games and a World Series title, but no other team has made a change since then. With the offseason just a few weeks from commencing, it’s doubtful any club will join Boston in seeking a new head of baseball ops prior to the winter.

While almost all front offices look stable right now, the story could be totally different a year from now. We’ve seen mass departures in the dugout in recent weeks, and several clubs may end up in position to ax their top front office minds in roughly 12 months. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post observed over the weekend, at least 10 teams could wind up seeking new front office heads by 2021 if things go haywire next season.

Going by Sherman’s list, the Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Rockies, White Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Phillies each have executives who could be in do-or-die positions next year. It would be especially earth-shaking to see the Cubs make a switch, as president of baseball ops Theo Epstein has largely delivered wonderful results since he exited Boston for Chicago prior to the 2012 campaign. Of course, manager Joe Maddon also did mostly brilliant work for the Cubs from 2015-19, but that didn’t prevent them from going in another direction after this year’s so-so 84-win showing. With that in mind, perhaps Epstein will meet a similar fate if the Cubs don’t rebound in 2020.

Aside from the Cubs, every team Sherman mentioned has been embroiled in a multiyear playoff drought. With the possible exception of the Mariners, whose owner, John Stanton, seems to be exercising patience with GM Jerry Dipoto, all of them could conceivably hire new front office leaders within a year. The Rangers’ Jon Daniels, the Mets’ Brodie Van Wagenen, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’s Rick Hahn, the Pirates’ Neal Huntington, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Angels’ Billy Eppler and the Phillies’ Matt Klentak do indeed seem especially vulnerable going into 2020. The same could apply to Reds president Dick Williams and-or GM Nick Krall if the team doesn’t make a leap up the standings after what it hopes will be an active offseason. The Marlins are so devoid of talent that they have almost no chance to compete in 2020, which could finally cost president Michael Hill his job (bear in mind co-owner Derek Jeter inherited Hill; he didn’t hire him).

There could also be other execs in trouble by next offseason, though the Dodgers (to some of their fans’ chagrin) look as if they’re on the cusp of locking up pending free-agent president Andrew Friedman after another year loaded with regular-season wins but lacking a World Series title. The Blue Jays could extend oft-maligned president Mark Shapiro, meanwhile, and the Twins might award chief baseball officer Derek Falvey a new pact in the wake of an eminently successful campaign.

The above bunch aside, it’s fair to guess the Astros, Yankees, Athletics, Rays, Indians, Royals, Orioles, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers and Diamondbacks are perfectly happy with their front office alignments. Near-term changes likely aren’t in the offing for any of those clubs, then, but what of the rest?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Yasmani Grandal’s Next Contract

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For the second straight offseason, Yasmani Grandal is scheduled to reach free agency as the undisputed No. 1 catcher available. Grandal got to the open market last winter after a strong multiyear run with the Dodgers, but he’ll return there this offseason on the heels of a quality campaign with the Brewers, who look likely to lose him.

The fact that Grandal even ended up in Milwaukee in the first place came as a surprise. Expectations were he’d emerge from his previous trip to free agency with a long-term, high-paying contract, but that didn’t materialize. There was at least one opportunity for Grandal to score that type of pact, as he reportedly turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets weeks before settling for far less.

The small-market Brewers capitalized on Grandal’s decision to reject New York, not to mention a lack of offers he deemed suitable from other clubs, by reeling him in on a one-year, $18.25MM guaranteee in January. The switch-hitting Grandal paid the Brew Crew back with a .246/.380/.468 batting line, a career-high 28 home runs and 5.2 fWAR in 632 plate appearances during another playoff-bound season for the team. Grandal performed well behind the plate at the same time, thus continuing a long run as one of the most well-rounded backstops in baseball.

The Brewers could technically control Grandal for another season, as the two sides have a $16MM mutual option (or a $2.25MM buyout) for 2020. Exercising it should be a no-brainer for Milwaukee, but rejecting it ought to be an easy call for Grandal. He has now put up five straight elite seasons, after all, and no longer has to worry about a qualifying offer weighing him down. The Dodgers hit Grandal with a QO a year ago, and because a player can’t receive it more than once, he’s in line for an unfettered free-agent run this time around. Not only that, but the 31-year-old Grandal won’t face much competition on the open market. It’s obvious the next best unsigned catchers – Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos – aren’t in his stratosphere.

Adding everything up, Grandal may be in ideal position this offseason to secure the type of payday he desired last year. Do you expect the two-time All-Star to outdo the $60MM he reportedly turned down back then?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Most Desirable Managerial Opening?

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The Phillies fired Gabe Kapler on Thursday, leaving them as one of eight major league teams searching for a manager at the moment. Fellow National League clubs in the Padres, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Cubs are in the same position, while the Royals and Angels are seeking new skippers in the AL. The question is: Which team has the most desirable job?

For starters, we can probably rule out the Pirates and Royals. Both teams have been hamstrung by low payrolls, with notoriously penny-pinching ownership holding back Pittsburgh and Kansas City (a team whose ownership is in transition) coming off its second 100-loss season in a row. Neither team looks as if it’ll contend in the immediate future, and the same may apply to the Giants, though they are a club with big-spending capabilities and promising president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi at the helm. On the other hand, the rest of the league’s manager-needy organizations look to have decent odds of pushing for relevance sooner than later.

The Phillies just wrapped up their eighth consecutive non-playoff season, but with 81 wins, they weren’t exactly a basement dweller. Kapler’s successor will be taking over a team with big-time talent on hand (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola, to name a few) and the spending power to amply address its most obvious weaknesses this offseason.

Like the Phillies, the Padres have been suffering for too long. They’re fresh off their 13th straight year without a playoff berth, but they’re another team with front-line talent (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Chris Paddack). Moreover, the Padres remain loaded on the farm, and owner Ron Fowler has made it clear it’s time to start winning in 2020.

The Mets also have no shortage of top-line players, including ace Jacob deGrom and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. However, their managerial position is probably the most pressure-packed of all the openings. Previous skipper Mickey Callaway oversaw an 86-win team in 2019, but he dealt with scrutiny from the media, fans and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen from start to finish.

There’s also high expectations in Chicago, where even an exemplary record over five years wasn’t enough to keep Joe Maddon employed. The Cubs and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein gave Maddon the boot even though he helped them break a 108-year World Series drought in 2016 and led them to an overall 471-339 regular-season record with four playoff berths during his reign. But the Cubs, another financially well-off club with enviable high-end talent (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Hendricks, for example), saw enough of Maddon after a late-season collapse and a non-playoff showing in 2019. Maddon’s replacement will be inheriting an 84-win team that will have playoff expectations for next year.

The Angels, who seem like the favorites to land Maddon next, are another franchise with a sense of urgency to win in 2020. Despite the presence of the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, they haven’t gone to the playoffs since 2014. The Halos haven’t even won a playoff game since October 2009, just a few months after drafting Trout.  With fourth-year general manager Billy Eppler set to enter the last season of his contract in 2020, it’s imperative for him to get this hire right (his previous selection of Brad Ausmus didn’t work out). Otherwise, he and the Angels’ next manager could be out a year from now.

That’s a basic overview of where the sport’s manager-less teams stand heading into the offseason. There are more factors you could consider, of course. Which job looks the most appealing to you?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Astros-Rays Game 5

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Last night’s contests delivered high drama — one at the very outset, the other at the end. That left three of the four championship series spots claimed, with the Nationals joining the Cardinals in the NLCS and the Yankees already ticketed for the ALCS. But who’ll square off against New York’s savages? That’ll be decided tonight.

The pressure is on the Astros, who have already squandered two opportunities to clinch the series. Two of Houston’s three exceptional starters failed to close it out, so they’ll hand the ball to the final member of the trio. Gerrit Cole doesn’t have the Hall of Fame resume that his teammates do — yet, at least — but he’s at top form and is arguably the best of the group right now. The Rays have only scored runs in bunches once in this series, but their pesky and balanced group of hitters will try to scratch out some runs against the dominant Cole. If he had a soft spot this year, it was — like so many others — in the long ball department. Cole allowed 1.23 per nine on a 16.9% HR/FB rate during the regular season. Houston skipper A.J. Hinch may ultimately face some nervy decisions late in this game, but he’ll surely ride Cole as long as possible.

Tampa Bay counters with pure power of its own in the form of Tyler Glasnow. While he hasn’t come close to Cole, his former Pirates teammate, in overall output over the past two seasons, Glasnow has the ability to dominate as well. He’ll also have a chance to further extend his pitch count after throwing 76 pitches and lasting 4 1/3 frames in the first game of this series. That’s just the first step of the Rays’ strategy, which is sure to involve a parade of relievers once Glasnow exits. The club pushed several of its best arms hard in game four, but an intervening rest day should leave plenty of options at the disposal of manager Kevin Cash. He and the staff will be trying to navigate an almost laughably talented Houston run-production machine.

It’s hard not to like the battle-tested, star-studded Astros at home with Cole on the mound, but the Rays have already proven they won’t back down. Who do you think will take it tonight and book a date with the Yanks?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’s Going To The NLCS?

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If you like baseball (you’re reading this, so you probably do), Wednesday evening already looks rather promising. All four of the National League’s remaining playoff teams will square off then in win-or-go-home contests to conclude their thrilling NLDS matchups. The top-seeded Dodgers will take on the Nationals in Los Angeles, while the Braves will host the Cardinals.

To many, a third straight pennant for the perennially dominant Dodgers looked like a foregone conclusion entering the playoffs. But the 106-win club has had its hands full with the Nationals, a 93-69 team that needed a miraculous comeback over the Brewers in the wild-card game just to reach the NLDS. The Dodgers have led this series twice (1-0 and 2-1), but they’ve been unable to stamp out the Nationals, thanks in part to the heroics of Washington co-aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The latter’s slated to take the ball in Game 5 against Walker Buehler, who has supplanted Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw as LA’s most valuable starter. Buehler put forth his latest ace-caliber effort in the Dodgers’ Game 1 win last Thursday, when he fired six scoreless, one-hit innings.

In Atlanta, the Braves will send Mike Foltynewicz to the mound to battle Jack Flaherty, who – like Buehler – has burst on the scene as an elite young arm. Foltynewicz entered the season as one of the Braves’ clear-cut top starters, though it nonetheless may seem hard to believe they’re turning to him with their season on the line. After all, the team did demote the 28-year-old to the minors in late June on the heels of a horrid few months. To his credit, however, Foltynewicz has rebounded since his early August return, and he continued to roll with seven shutout innings during a Game 2 victory over the Flaherty-led Cards. He’ll again contend with a St. Louis offense that has gotten exceptional production from Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna in the series.

The 23-year-old Flaherty will deal with an Atlanta club that has seen outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. continue to stake his claim as one of the sport’s up-and-coming superstars in October. Runs may be hard to come by for Acuna & Co., though, as Flaherty hasn’t yielded more than three in a start since July 2. Dating back to then, Flaherty has given up a ridiculously low 14 earned runs in 113 1/3 innings and 17 starts.

Of course, it would be foolish to only mention the starters who are lined up for these two games. With all four clubs’ seasons on the line, they’ll likely be in all-hands-on-deck mode (or something close to it) as they attempt to reach the final round of the NL playoffs. As is often the case in the postseason, the teams’ bullpens will probably play integral roles in the outcomes. Which clubs do you expect to advance Wednesday?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

Cole Vs. Rendon: Who Will Sign The Bigger Contract?

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A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.

It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.

Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.

Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.

Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.

Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.

It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?

(Poll link for app users)

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