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MLBTR Poll: Best $200MM-Plus Contract

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When it comes to the money handed out, this has been one of the most active weeks in the history of Major League Baseball. At the Winter Meetings, we saw two right-handers – Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) – as well as third baseman Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245MM) secure contracts worth a combined $814MM. All three are clients of super-agent Scott Boras, which makes this a glorious week for him. But which of these deals will work out the best?

Let’s start at the top with Cole, now the highest-paid pitcher the game has ever seen. He’s emigrating from the Astros to the rival Yankees, who finally reeled in their so-called white whale. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees had previously chased Cole on multiple occasions, only to come up short. Of course, the 29-year-old Cole would’ve been much cheaper in the past, but he’s now the most expensive player on the Yankees’ roster.

Before Cole signed with the Yankees, Strasburg briefly had the honor of owning the richest all-time payday among MLB pitchers. Strasburg earned that after several stellar seasons in Washington, where he collected World Series MVP honors in 2019 after the Nats took down Cole and the Astros. Washington couldn’t let Strasburg go in the wake of his fall heroics, instead retaining him to keep forming a dominant trio with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Although Strasburg, 31, is much cheaper than Cole, it’s worth noting he’s a couple years older.

Rendon joined Strasburg as an indispensable part of the Nationals’ 2019 title-winning club, but the Nats weren’t ready to go all-out to keep both of them. As a result, Rendon exited after the Strasburg re-up to accept the Angels’ offer on Wednesday. The Angels hope the 29-year-old Rendon and the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, will help spark a playoff run in 2020 after years of irrelevance.

There’s no going back for the teams that signed Cole, Strasburg or Rendon. All three are locked into their incredibly large guarantees for the foreseeable future. In your opinion, though, which deal will work out the best?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract

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With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.

Josh Donaldson | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.

It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.

Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.

Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.

Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…

Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Gerrit Cole?

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High-level meetings are taking place. Offers are coming in. All indications are that the Gerrit Cole bidding is at a full sprint, spurred in part by the stunningly lucrative deal reached between the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. That record-setting $245MM contract ups the ante for teams interested in the younger and higher-octane Cole. The $300MM threshold once seemed a pie-in-the-sky number. No more.

With the expectation that Cole will take the best offer made, every team in baseball is theoretically in play. But it seems the market has already largely developed. The Angels and Yankees are widely cited as the two most active pursuers. The Dodgers’ stance isn’t quite clear. The Phillies and Rangers are reportedly still circling. Perhaps it’s still possible there’s a mystery bidder.

Where do you think Cole will end up?

(Poll link for app users; responses order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Rays/Padres Trade

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While Thursday’s Rays/Padres deal headlined by Tommy Pham and Hunter Renfroe likely won’t go down as this winter’s most shocking, the trade had something to say about the respective offseason strategies of both clubs. Tampa Bay, for their part, cut salary, increased controllability, and added yet another prized infield prospect to an already enviable collection. San Diego, true to their stated desire for a near-term return to contention, look to have secured an immediate improvement at the top of their lineup while also shuffling in an interesting two-way player likely capable of providing the big league roster with some extra support.

Hunter Renfroe is the most immediate addition to the Rays’ roster, even if this deal may have been more about the acquisition of infield prospect Xavier Edwards from the viewpoint of Tampa Bay GM Erik Neander. Renfroe has gained his share of detractors over the years for a free-swinging, low-OBP approach at the plate, but 2019 saw him finally realize the defensive potential many scouts foresaw when he was a top-100 prospect. Lining up primarily in the corners with a few starts in center, the former Bulldog recorded 22 Defensive Runs Saved and a 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating last year, after recording average-or-worse marks in those categories the year prior. His arm is also touted as one of MLB’s most imposing.

Observers noting Renfroe’s underwhelming 98 wRC+ last year might be well-served to remember that the 27-year-old had a .252/.308/.613 line (132 wRC+) with 27 home runs heading into the All-Star break last year, before a variety of injuries were believed to have led to a precipitous second-half decline (Renfroe ended his season with a foot surgery). But even if Renfroe proves to be the roughly average hitter he’s been over the course of his career, Neander will have acquired a defensive standout capable of providing power, if nothing else, to the Rays’ lineup; better yet, he’s projected to make just $3.4MM in his first trip through arb, making him a very affordable source of said power.

As for the second aspect of this deal for the Rays, Edwards is a 20-year-old speedster who reached High-A last season. He’s hit just one home run in over 700 plate appearances since making his minor-league debut in 2018, but the youngster has terrorized pitchers (with a .328/.395/.399 career slash) and scorched the basepaths (56 steals in 168 games). When he was taken with the 38th-overall pick in the 2018 draft, MLB Pipeline relayed that scouts observed “excellent actions and footwork at shortstop” with an arm sufficient for the infield’s left side; he’s mostly split time between short and second so far in the minors, but it stands to reason his speed would play in center, as well. The Rays also acquired a PTBNL in this deal, which is not to be disregarded when said player is coming from a loaded San Diego system.

In Pham, the Padres added a player with a clear leg up on Renfroe for the title of “Best MLB Player” involved in this deal. While, at 31, he may never again reach the vertigo-inducing heights he climbed in 2017 with the Cardinals (149 wRC+ in 530 PAs), he’s still been an excellent player over the last two seasons in Tampa. His 12.1 percent walk rate, .186 isolated slugging mark, and 125 wRC+ since the beginning of 2018 all bear the markings of a standout hitter–and that’s before adding in the 42 homers and 40 steals he’s managed in that time. At an expected arbitration award of $8.6MM in his penultimate trip through the process, Pham rates as an immediate offensive upgrade over Renfroe, while drawing a salary that will possibly be less than half of what Marcell Ozuna figures to command this offseason.

Jake Cronenworth, the second player headed to San Diego in this deal, is a 25-year-old infielder capable of handling mop-up pitching duties in a pinch. Before 2019, the former Wolverine had never recorded a slugging mark north of .400 in his minor league career, but his first prolonged exposure to Triple-A baseball yielded an immediate improvement at the plate last year (surprise!). His .329/.422/.511 line with 10 homers in 419 plate appearances would lead one to believe that he’s ready for at least a part-time role in the bigs, even if those numbers were inflated by context somewhat; of course, hitting environment cuts both ways in prospect evaluation, so Cronenworth should be commended for being able to log 7.1 scoreless innings as a part-time pitcher in 2019, as well.

So, here we have a deal that, like a previous deal swung by Padres GM AJ Preller this offseason, seems to fit clear needs for both clubs. Question is, whose side do you like best?

First, Tampa Bay…

(Poll link for app users)


And San Diego…

(Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Grading The Mike Moustakas Signing

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The Reds are just a couple months removed from wrapping up a 75-win campaign, their sixth straight sub-.500 showing and sixth in a row without a playoff berth. President of baseball operations Dick Williams made it clear entering the offseason that he had seen enough. Williams vowed that the Reds would be players on the open market, saying at the beginning of October the club would “be aggressive in trying to get some guys in free agency.” However, as the saying goes, actions speak louder than words. Two months later, it’s clear Williams wasn’t simply telling disgruntled Reds fans what they wanted to hear.

The Williams-led Reds made an enormous and shocking splash in free agency on Monday, adding infielder Mike Moustakas on a four-year, $64MM guarantee. It was a stunning move for multiple reasons, including the price tag and that Moustakas’ primary position – third base – is already spoken for in Cincinnati. He’s not going to steal the job from incumbent Eugenio Suarez, who’s fresh off a 49-home run season, nor is he a threat to swipe first from franchise legend Joey Votto. That presumably leaves second base for Moustakas. The keystone was an area of need for the Reds prior to the Moustakas signing, and the 31-year-old showed last season he was capable of handling himself there as a member of the division-rival Brewers. Now that Moustakas is aboard, it seems likely youngster Nick Senzel will remain their center fielder instead of shifting to the keystone. So, it’s almost like two decisions in one for the Reds.

As for the cost, it’s a whopper of a deal from both sides’ perspective, especially considering MLBTR was among the outlets that projected a payday in the $20MM range for Moustakas at the start of free agency. That said, one could argue it’s a market correction after back-to-back difficult offseasons for Moustakas. “Difficult” is relative in this case, of course, as the Scott Boras client did rack up contracts worth a guaranteed $16.5MM in that time frame. However, despite a lengthy track record of solid production, Moustakas was unable to score a contract of more than one year in either case. Now, for a truckload of cash, the Reds are getting a player with five seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR and another five of 20-plus home runs on his resume. Moustakas smashed 35 HRs during a homer-heavy league year in 2019, when he slashed .254/.329/.516 and put up 2.8 fWAR across 584 plate appearances.

With Moose in the mix, the majority of Cincy’s infield looks settled. However, the team’s position player cast arguably still has needs at shortstop, catcher and in the outfield. Whether they’ll be as aggressive in trying to upgrade those spots remains to be seen in the wake of the pact they doled out for Moustakas. For now, though, what do you think of this big-time Cincy splash?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Largest Guarantee Among Potential NPB Imports

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In addition to the dozens of veteran free agents still looking for new homes this offseason, there are currently three decorated players from the Nippon Professional Baseball ranks who are currently available to stateside clubs via the MLB posting system. First baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, pitcher Shun Yamaguchi, and second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi have already been posted this winter; a fourth player, outfielder Shogo Akiyama, is an international free agent. While none of these players promise, like countrymen Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish before them, to be franchise building blocks, each offers unique value to potential American suitors.

Looking for a lefty bat with pop? Tsutsugo is your man. Since 2014, the 6’0 slugger has blasted an average of 30.83 home runs per season while playing for the Yokohama BayStars, peaking with totals of 44 and 38 round-trippers in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The now-28-year-old couples that raw power with the patient approach modern clubs covet, recording a 15.1 percent walk rate over the last four seasons, while also doing a generally acceptable job of limiting strikeouts.

As for his defense? Well, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America recently said he’s “not a terrible fielder by any means, but he’s not a great one either”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player who has shuttled between first, third, and left field in a ten-year Nipponese career. Clubs may be wary of committing multiple years, a hefty guarantee, and a posting fee (more on that in a moment) for a player who may end up suited for DH duties.

How about teams in search of a veteran starting pitcher to slot into their rotation’s back end? 32-year-old righty Shun Yamaguchi throws a fastball that sits around 90 mph, with a forkball representing his primary breaking pitch. That surely doesn’t sound like the most glamorous mix of attributes, but what Yamaguchi can offer is a wealth of experience and a good deal of forward momentum. Despite having pitched over 1000 innings stretching between the bullpen and the rotation in an NPB career dating back to 2006, Yamaguchi may have found another gear in 2019.

In addition to posting a 2.91 ERA over 26 starts, his 10.0 K/9 and 3.13 K/BB ratios last season marked personal bests as a starter. This offseason has already been slightly unpredictable when it comes to starting pitching, with Jake Odorizzi foregoing the open market and an inconsistent Kyle Gibson garnering a three-year, $30MM deal from the Rangers. For teams leery of even approaching the market’s top trifecta of starting arms, Yamaguchi, though likely not a world-beater, could represent an appealing value play.

Then there’s the slick-fielding Ryosuke Kikuchi. For teams in need of second base help and defensive improvement in the infield–and there are a few teams who fit within that category–Kikuchi may be a perfect match. The 29-year-old has won every Golden Glove at the keystone in the NPB’s Central League since 2013. While his defensive excellence seems to be universally upheld, there are some persistent questions as to how the bat will travel. Since debuting with the Hiroshima Carp in 2012, the righty swinger has logged a cumulative .271/.315/.391 line across a rather healthy sample of 4695 plate appearances.

Kikuchi’s .261/.313/.406 slash from last year would look acceptable in the majors from a defensively adept second baseman, but such production in the offensively friendly Japanese ranks may give some MLB front offices reason to pause; those that remember the trials of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Munenori Kawasaki, two other former Golden Glove NPB infielders who proved unable to adapt to MLB pitching, may simply stay away altogether.

Big league teams interested in any of these players will have to pay their parent clubs posting fees proportional to the size of the player’s contract: 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed; 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of every dollar over $50MM. That release fee is separate from the guarantee itself (for instance, a $25MM guarantee for one of these players would result in an additional $5MM posting fee, bringing the MLB club’s total expense to $30MM).

Performance incentives and contract options will trigger a supplemental 15 percent release fee once unlocked. For a minor league deal, an MLB club will be required to give a parent club 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s MLB salary will be subject to a supplemental posting fee if he is added to the club’s 25-man roster.

Shogo Akiyama probably represents the most well-rounded player expected to make the leap this offseason, and he was the only expected NPB import from this offseason to land within our Top 50 MLB Free Agent list. Considered a true center fielder and leadoff man by most, Akiyama set the NPB single-season record for hits (216) in the 2015 season. He’s won six Golden Gloves in his home country, hit 69 home runs over his last three seasons with the Seibu Lions, and holds a 10.8 percent walk rate since 2016. Two problems: Akiyama will be 32 next April, a rather advanced age for an up-the-middle player, and he suffered a broken bone in his foot during an exhibition on Oct 31 and will need to show he is healthy in order to sign with an MLB team.

There’s certainly a chance some of these players may not come stateside this offseason, but each seems to represent a coveted potential asset in their own right. This year’s free agent market is generally slim pickings when it comes to center fielders, so Akiyama’s availability, in particular, is probably a welcome development for a number of clubs; better yet, he is free to sign a new deal with any club without being subject to the posting system and its concomitant fees.

Still, it’s fair to wonder if he can truly be considered the most viable play here.  Tsutsugo offers immense immense power and relative youth, while there seems to be a fair number of clubs circling starting pitching options like Yamaguchi this offseason.

Which one do you believe is likely to receive the healthiest contract guarantee this winter? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Best November Transaction

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As we approach the winter meetings, most of the offseason action remains ahead of us, starting with Monday’s non-tender deadline. There has been some early movement, however, as two free agents signed their qualifying offers, we got an early need-for-need challenge trade, and 9 of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents have already left the board.

The splashiest signing of November was the White Sox snagging of Yasmani Grandal on a four-year, $73MM deal. MLBTR readers largely approved of the deal in this poll from Connor Byrne. The Southsiders also locked up their long-time lineup fulcrum in Cuban first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu. After he accepted the qualifying offer, GM Rick Hahn committed two more years to 2019’s AL RBI leader.

The Braves win November’s volume award, moving early on many fronts. They returned vets like Darren O’Day, Chris Martin, and Nick Markakis, solidified Tyler Flowers and Travis d’Arnaud as their catching tandem, and brought in the top bullpen arm on the market in lefty Will Smith.

The Padres also came to play this winter, signing Drew Pomeranz to a lengthy four-year contract. Pomeranz impressed in a 26-game stint in Milwaukee, and he’ll now pair with Kirby Yates at the back end of San Diego’s bullpen. The Rangers, meanwhile, turned three-year, $30MM rotation arms into a tradition when they signed former Twin Kyle Gibson.

Lest we forget, November also gifted us with an always-exciting pre-debut extension when the Mariners inked first baseman Evan White to a six-year, $24MM pact despite finishing 2019 in Double-A. On the flip side, we lost some players from the pool through the overseas departures of former major leaguers Gerardo “Baby Shark” Parra, Justin Bour, Tyler Austin, Mike Wright and Aaron Altherr.

November also gave us the rare controversial waiver placement. 28-year-old Jonathan Villar appeared in every game for the Orioles in 2019, putting up 4.0 bWAR with a .274/.339/.453 line while moving capably between second and short. He is likely due a somewhat heady $10.4MM through arbitration, but given Baltimore’s lack of financial commitments, stated desire for a veteran shortstop, and general need for talent of all shapes and sizes, it’s somewhat surprising to see them make Villar available for common claim.

As for the rest of the market, the Cards saved us the trauma of seeing Adam Wainwright in a non-Cardinals jersey, the Nats brought back Patrick Corbin’s personal catcher Yan Gomes on an affordable two-year deal, the Mariners plucked a low-cost rotation flyer off the pile in Kendall Graveman, the Diamondbacks gave Carson Kelly a veteran partner behind the plate in Stephen Vogt, and a few vets conceded early to minor league deals: Ryan Goins (A’s), Blaine Hardy (Twins), Josh Harrison (Phillies), A.J. Cole (Blue Jays).

The rumors continue to swirl, and though there’s still more than 12 hours left in the month, it’s a good time to see what y’all think was the best move made in November.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Kyle Gibson Deal

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Wednesday’s reported agreement between Kyle Gibson and the Rangers to a three-year, $30MM deal will likely not go down as the most impactful free agent deal signed by a starting pitcher this offseason. Due to an assortment of early-career injuries, Gibson reached free agency relatively late, at 32 years of age, with the additional misfortune of doing so in the shadow of names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler. While Gibson might not represent the flashiest name to find a new uniform this winter, his Texas signing represented part of an apparently ongoing talent acquisition strategy in Arlington.

As noted by our own Jeff Todd and Steve Adams, Gibson’s deal fit the mold of the organization’s recent signings of pitchers like Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. Those deals have worked out swimmingly for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, with Minor and Lynn fronting a 2019 staff that helped lead Texas to a surprisingly solid 78-84 finish in 2019. Minor’s own spotty track record of health allowed Daniels to secure his services for a three-year, $28MM commitment prior to 2018; Lynn, fresh off of a disappointing 2018 following several years of solid performance, inked a three-year, $30MM accord with Texas prior to last season. In 2019, those economical signings provided Texas with a combined 418.2 innings of 3.63 ERA pitching.

Not one of these pitchers could be called a true reclamation project. Like Lynn and Minor, Gibson comes to the Dallas area with a few warts on his health report, some inconsistencies in performance, and a few flaws in his statistical profile; he also arrives with a fairly solid body of cumulative work and a few reasons to believe his best pitching may be yet ahead of him. While his early career Tommy John procedure goes a long way toward explaining his late entry to the free agency portal, Gibson’s made 25 or more starts in every season since 2014. Not every campaign has been brilliant, with an ERA exceeding 5.00 between 2016 and 2017, but the big righty was a sub-4.00 ERA starter in 2015 and 2018, while this past season saw him record career bests in K/9 and K/BB ratios (due, perhaps, to some measurable improvements in his repertoire). The Mizzou product won’t be confused with an ace, but he’s accumulated 5.2 fWAR over the past two seasons and could be called the archetype of a “back-of-the-rotation” arm. Meanwhile, Texas will roll out Gibson, Minor, and Lynn for a combined annual commitment of roughly $31MM next season–perhaps less than it will cost an acquiring team for one yearly serving of Cole.

Detractors of the deal, however, will point to a serving of Cole as having been an entirely realistic holiday season wish. After showing a willingness to sport a $160MM-plus Opening Day payroll in 2017, Texas ownership has since pared down OD payrolls bit-by-bit; 2020’s opening payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, is projected to fall at roughly $110MM as presently constructed. The Rangers, as you may have heard, are moving into a new ballpark in 2020, raising fanbase expectations in regard to on-field product. And as for that new stadium? Daniels will have to hope that Gibson can keep the ball within its confines, as the hurler’s 20.4% HR/FB rate from last season does not bode well for a pitcher performing in the dry Texas heat. If Gibson performs the way Minor and Lynn have as Rangers, this deal will look like another reasonable move in a market where reason can oftentimes lose out; if his struggles with the long ball lead to another up-and-down season, fans will likely wonder why the club didn’t aim higher in its search for starting pitching.

In your opinion, is the Gibson signing a shrewd continuation of a tried-and-true Texas trend or an underwhelming half-measure in light of 2020 expectations? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Grading The Brewers/Padres Trade

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Yesterday, the Brewers and Padres linked up on an interesting four-player swap. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd discussed the players involved in the immediate aftermath of the deal, but it’s worth pondering a little further.

San Diego sent middle infielder Luis Urías and left-hander Eric Lauer to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Trent Grisham and right-hander Zach Davies. It’s the rare swap involving four current MLB players, three of whom have yet to even reach arbitration. Unlike many deals where a current contender trades future value to a rebuilding club to upgrade the roster in the short-term, this swap hinges mostly on the talent of the players involved. As Padres GM A.J. Preller put it (via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), “sometimes, there are deals because of salary issues. Sometimes, there are deals because someone’s getting toward free agency, because clubs are contending or not contending. In this case, it’s just a good baseball trade.”

For the most part, the deal turns on which of Urías and Grisham one prefers. Each has been a top 50 overall prospect in the past, per Baseball America, but Urías entered 2019 as the more acclaimed of the two. Grisham had a breakout season in the high minors last year, with a cumulative .300/.407/.603 slash in 441 plate appearances between AA and AAA before making his MLB debut in August. Urías, too, mashed in AAA last season (.315/.398/.600 in 339 PA), but scuffled in limited big league action. Grisham was a bit better in his small sample of MLB time, even if a misplay in right field in the NL Wild Card game ended the season on a sour note.

Of course, that one play was not the reason Milwaukee pulled the trigger on this deal, as Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). On the whole, reviews of Grisham’s defense in the corner outfield tend to be positive, even if, despite 93rd percentile sprint speed, he’s not viewed by many public outlets as a long-term option in center. Urías offers more defensive value as a middle infielder, although reviews tend to be mixed on him at shortstop, where he figures to play in Milwaukee with Keston Hiura locking down the keystone.

It’s a bit tougher to get too excited over the pitchers involved, although both are certainly useful big leaguers. Davies has the stronger bottom line results, with a 3.91 career ERA and an even better 3.55 mark in 159.2 innings in 2019. He’s never posted a 20% strikeout rate or a 10% swinging strike rate in a full season, though, and the soft-tossing contact manager has generally fallen out of favor in today’s game. Lauer’s profile isn’t dramatically different. His strikeout and walk rates are higher than Davies’ but each is lower than average. Lauer, though, hasn’t had the success Davies has had to this point keeping runs off the board. Davies is more expensive ($5MM arbitration projection) and comes with three fewer seasons of team control, but neither hurler figures to threaten either team’s bottom line moving forward.

How would you grade this deal for both teams?

First, Milwaukee..

(poll link for app users)

 

And San Diego…

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Best Managerial Hire?

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Barring a surprising development, it’ll be several months before we see another managerial change in Major League Baseball. The Pirates, the last of eight teams that sought a new skipper on the heels of last season, filled the position with the hiring of former Twins bench coach Derek Shelton on Wednesday. The Angels, Phillies, Giants, Royals, Mets, Cubs and Padres previously landed new managers.

Of the teams that went in different directions in the dugout this offseason, half hired individuals with previous managerial experience. The Angels and Phillies, two big-spending clubs looking to break long playoff droughts, each tabbed a prior World Series winner. Los Angeles selected Joe Maddon, whom the Cubs parted with at the conclusion of the season, while Philadelphia went with Joe Girardi after he enjoyed an eminently successful run with the Yankees from 2008-17.

Girardi’s taking over for Gabe Kapler, whose tenure in Philly was not always sunny (far from it). The Phillies parted with Kapler on the heels of two straight mediocre-at-best years, but that didn’t stop the Giants from hiring him to succeed three-time champion and potential Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy. The rebuilding Royals also had to find someone to grab the reins from a former championship winner, Ned Yost, who retired. They chose ex-Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, who – like Kapler – wasn’t particularly popular in his prior stop.

Meanwhile, the four first-timers are stepping into differing situations. Carlos Beltran, who’s not far removed from wrapping up what could be a Cooperstown-caliber playing career, doesn’t even have any coaching experience. Nevertheless, the Mets are putting their faith in the 42-year-old Beltran – once of their stars – to outperform predecessor Mickey Callaway. Beltran proved capable of handling New York’s special brand of pressure when he was a player, but it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll be able to do the same in his new role with a Mets team that expects to push for a postseason berth in 2020.

Likewise, longtime major league catcher David Ross has assumed the reins of one of his former clubs, the Cubs, who will enter next season with playoff aspirations after petering out this year under Maddon. Ross is a fan favorite in Chicago thanks to his time with the Cubs, though he’s yet another managerial pick with no coaching experience.

On the other hand, Shelton and the Padres’ Jayce Tingler have coached, though neither one is inheriting a team that looks especially likely to contend next season. That said, there will be pressure for San Diego, led by general manager A.J. Preller, to at least get back to .500 for the first time since 2010. The hope for the club is that the 38-year-old Tingler, a former Rangers assistant who’s now the second-youngest manager in the game (Twins AL Manager of the Year winner Rocco Baldelli is younger), will emerge as something of a wunderkind.

So, who made the best hire among this large group of franchises? Is it one of the clubs that went the experienced route? Or do you like one of the rookies the best?

(Poll link for app users)

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