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MLBTR Poll: Josh Hader’s Future

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Friday has been an arbitration bonanza across Major League Baseball. Teams have either agreed to deals to avoid the process with their arbitration-eligible players, or they’re at risk of having to go to hearings because they couldn’t find common ground. As of now, standout Brewers reliever Josh Hader is among those whose asking price outpaces what his team’s willing to pay. The left-handed Hader requested $6.4MM in 2020, his first of four arb-eligible seasons, while the Brewers submitted a $4.1MM offer.

Considering what he has brought to the table since he debuted in 2017, Hader’s desired salary looks plenty fair. Dating back to his first season, the hard-throwing Hader has posted a 2.42 ERA/2.74 FIP with a ridiculous 15.35 K/9 against 3.17 BB/9. And Hader has proven himself as more than a three-out weapon, as he ranked 13th among all relievers in frames (204 2/3) during his three-season stretch of brilliance. He has also made it clear he can dominate as a setup man or a closer. Just last season, Hader racked up 37 saves on 44 attempts.

Even though they’re a small-market, low-spending club, there’s no obvious reason for the Brewers to trade Hader. They’re a team coming off back-to-back playoff seasons, Hader’s one of their most valuable players, and he’ll be easily affordable in 2020 no matter how his current financial situation pans out. With that said, the latter reason could influence the Brewers to go in another direction if they receive an enticing enough offer. As of Dec. 1, Milwaukee was willing to listen to proposals for Hader, who has drawn interest from such big-market teams as the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers this winter. Surely, if Milwaukee’s truly willing to let Hader go, other playoff-caliber clubs and hopeful contenders would enter the mix. That’s all the more true considering the dearth of high-end relievers left in free agency.

For the time being, Hader remains a member of the Brewers, who could at least retain him and decide on his long-term future around July’s trade deadline. But do you expect the club to move on from him before the upcoming season?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Luis Robert’s Rookie Season

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The White Sox recently made their latest bold move in a winter full of them, signing center fielder Luis Robert to a six-year, $50MM extension last week. Although the 22-year-old Robert has never played above the Triple-A level, setting his price for the foreseeable future came off as a worthwhile risk by the White Sox. Those types of gambles have become a trend for the club, which took the same approach before last season in inking left fielder Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43MM guarantee. Because Chicago was no longer concerned about Jimenez’s service time after extending him, he predictably cracked its Opening-Day roster. As expected, Jimenez went on to further establish himself as an integral long-term building block for the White Sox.

The team no doubt expects Robert to follow Jimenez’s lead this year in cementing himself as a foundational piece. Odds are that Robert, like Jimenez last year, will get a chance to do so from Day 1 of the season. Assuming that’s the case, he’ll take over for the White Sox’s most common center fielders from 2019 – Leury Garcia and Adam Engel – as their primary option. Garcia and Engel combined for a a passable 2.1 fWAR last season, though they didn’t offer much at the plate, totaling an unimposing .269/.308/.379 batting line with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

Considering Robert has no experience in the majors, there’s no guarantee he’ll outproduce Garcia and Engel in his first taste of the majors. On the other hand, as en elite prospect (MLB.com ranks him third in the game) who has run roughshod over high-minors pitching, Robert’s a legitimate candidate to begin his career with a flourish. Robert hadn’t played above High-A ball until last season, when he destroyed Double-A (.314/.362/.518 in 244 plate appearances) en route to a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. There was no shortage of offense in the International League, but the .297/.341/.634 slash Robert registered in 223 attempts was still 36 percent better than the league’s average hitter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

It’s too much to ask for Robert to hit that well in the majors this season, of course. Nevertheless, projections on his rookie season are bullish. For instance, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system calls for 2.3 fWAR, a .265/.309/.455 line, 20 homers and 24 steals over 539 plate appearances. That would go down as a similar first full season to the one Nationals budding star center fielder Victor Robles recorded in 2019, an age-22, 617-PA campaign in which he posted 2.5 fWAR, slashed .255/.326/.419, swatted 17 HRs and stole 28 bases.

For the purpose of this poll, we’ll set the WAR over/under at ZiPS’ forecast, 2.3. Do you expect Robert to meet, exceed or fall short of that figure in 2020?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Polls: Washington Nationals’ Recent Additions

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The defending champion Washington Nationals began their offseason in a holding pattern, awaiting the fates of two of their brightest stars: Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. What shook out couldn’t have been more on-brand for the pitching-focused Nats. Strasburg re-upped with the only professional organization he’s known, while Rendon joined Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Joe Maddon on an Angels’ team frontrunning for Best Smiles in the AL West, if not the division crown.

Following those twining, superstar sagas, the Nats embarked on a period of relative calm throughout much of December. While waiting in the hallway with the Twins and Braves for Josh Donaldson to make his final contract demands, Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo contented himself with bringing back as much of the championship gang as he could manage. Living legend Howie Kendrick will be back for three-to-five starts per week somewhere in the infield, Yan Gomes returns to block Patrick Corbin sliders and share in the catching duties with Kurt Suzuki, and even mid-season bullpen stabilizer Javy Guerra will get another crack to stick in the bullpen on a minor league deal. Ryan Zimmerman continues to wait in the shadows, certain to re-sign at some point, though how regularly Mr. National will see the field in 2020 is entirely unclear.

This week, however, the Nats grew tired of waiting for Donaldson and moved to add a trio of free agents. Asdrubal Cabrera is the most familiar new/old face. The man most-often charged with protecting Juan Soto in the lineup during 2019’s second half returns to Washington on a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee. Cabrera put up insane numbers in August and September for the Nats (.323/.404/.565). While he bonded nicely with the club in his second stint in the District, the Nats’ can hardly expect Cabrera to put up anything close to the Rendonian line he boasted over the season’s final two months. Somewhere between Kendrick, (presumably) Zimmerman, and top prospect Carter Kieboom, Cabrera represents a capable option to gather loose change at-bats between first, second, and third base.

But the Nationals added a rival to that infield mix as well, inking Starlin Castro to a somewhat surprising two-year, $12MM deal. Ten years into his big league career, Castro turns just 30-years-old in March while carrying an uninspiring .280/.319/.414 career line. The Nats plan to let Castro have second base until Kieboom or somebody else takes it from him, and while he fits an organization ethos that trusts veteran contributors more than the average big league team, it’s hard to get too excited about a guy whose only real elite skill has been volume. He doesn’t strike out a ton, but he won’t take walks, and neither his speed nor power elicit much awe.

Castro did absolutely rip left-handed pitching in 2019, and in the right light, Castro’s home/road, left/right and 1sthalf/2ndhalf splits can all point to a player who deserves more credit than I’m giving him. For instance, he hit .302/.334/.558 in the second half and .286/.332/.447 away from Marlins Park. Together, Cabrera and Castro give the Nats two relatively similar players whose contributions will have to be monitored, like your favorite sublet, on a month-to-month basis.

Perhaps the most unassailable move made in this past week, funny enough, is the addition of spin-rate-savant Will Harris. Nats’ fans no doubt already hold a fondness for Harris after he surrendered the World Series winning home run to Kendrick late in game seven. Years of playoff disappointment prior to 2019 should have those in the District well-prepared to look beyond the volatility of playoff results and appreciate Harris for what he is: one of the best relievers in the league. After all, Astros’ manager AJ Hinch is hardly a doofus, and quibble if you will about his decision to let $324MM man Gerrit Cole languish away in the bullpen while Harris and Kendrick put the foul pole to work – but his decision to pitch Harris in that moment was entirely defensible. That he wanted Harris on the hill should further brighten the hearts of Nats’ fans, even if the three-year, $24MM deal given him at age-35 might cause some seat-squirming. Still, this is a guy with a 2.36 ERA/2.99 FIP over the last five seasons, and he insures the Nats’ bullpen against further wear-and-tear on Sean Doolittle or stagnation from hard-throwing righty Tanner Rainey.

Donaldson could still find himself suiting up next to Trea Turner on the left side of the Nats’ infield, but Rizzo has historically stuck to his number with position players, and if Donaldson’s demands have stretched beyond his comfortability, don’t expect the disciplined Rizzo to panic. Cabrera, Castro and Harris may not be the cavalry Nats’ fans expected to ride in to defend their first ever championship, but they’re here to help all the same. The question is, do they?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Best Bargain Bullpen Signing Thus Far

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Though the adrenal rush that was this year’s Winter Meetings made for great spectating—and great content for sites like ours—getting spoiled in the offseason’s early months does make for a slower run-up to spring training. Yes, there are still some big fish out there lurking in the waters (here’s looking at you, Josh Donaldson), but, by and large, the next few months should largely be about teams making value-oriented additions at the edges of their 40-man rosters.

When it comes to bullpen arms, especially, this time of year can be like open season for cost-conscious GMs. Sure, there have been a few teams willing to spend at the top end of the market this offseason—with Will Smith, Drew Pomeranz and Will Harris all netting guarantees of at least $24MM in free agency—but many a good bullpen gets solidified this time of year through more low-key signings.

The Nationals, a team hamstrung in recent seasons by poor relief pitching, finally got over the hump in 2019 in part because their bullpen gelled down the stretch. Daniel Hudson, a guy the Angels signed to a minor-league deal in February last year, ultimately ended up on the mound for the Nats when they formed the celebratory dogpile. That trajectory from bargain-bin depth pickup to central cog in a World Series-winning unit is pretty good evidence as to why we should maintain a close eye on transactions in the run-up to camp.

So, which bullpen signing thus far has the best chance of being this coming year’s version of Hudson? An exhaustive list of all relief signings to this point in the offseason sounds, frankly, exhausting—for both author and reader. Perhaps a better format is to consider a few choice arms signed to relatively budget deals, with at least some proven track record of success in the majors.

Alex Wilson, signed only today by the Tigers to a minors deal, stands out as one arm that could deliver a solid return for a tiny investment. Though he’s not a strikeout artist by any means, with a 6.13 career K/9, Wilson still maintains a career 3.44 ERA—even after a dreadful sample of 11.1 innings with the Brewers last year.

San Diego’s minor league signing of Kyle Barraclough also promises to yield dividends—assuming manager Jayce Tingler’s staff can get him back to the form he showed from 2015-17 as a member of the Marlins when he logged a 2.87 ERA with 219 strikeouts in 163 IP. Last year represented a low point so far for Barraclough, as his brief stay in D.C. saw him post a 6.66 ERA across 25.2 innings; that ERA figure is not exactly a good omen, but the righty is still just 29 and has demonstrated an ability to strike out batters with consistency.

Like the Padres, the Reds are looking to wrap their rebuild this coming year and may do so with some cheap innings from Tyler Thornburg. Now 31, Thornburg has had a disastrous past few seasons after logging an impressive 1.9 fWAR as a reliever with the Brewers in 2016. Statcast indicates his raw stuff is still there, however, and part of his struggles can be tied to presumably fixable control issues.

Tyler Clippard is perhaps the most accomplished reliever on this list, having logged over 800 innings with a respectable 3.14 career ERA with nine separate big league teams. The Twins will now become his tenth team after a nearly decade-long courtship, providing him with a one-year, $2.75MM deal last month. Clippard was rather good in 2019, posting a 2.90 ERA in 62 innings with the Tribe, but less so from 2016-18, when he bounced between five teams while posting a 3.98 ERA across 192 innings. The now 34-year-old is probably the most stable option here, but it’s worth noting those quality results last year were undercut by a 4.94 xFIP.

Edinson Volquez was reportedly set on rejoining Texas’ staff after rehabbing himself back from injury with the Rangers last year. He’s never worked exclusively as a reliever, although his repertoire—and periodic inconsistency—has often caused observers to wonder what he would look like as a late-inning pen option. Last year, the Rangers got seven scoreless innings of relief work from the journeyman, so perhaps there’s a second chapter in Volquez’s career yet to be written.

Surely, there are still quite a few arms out there who could find themselves pitching October innings after signing frugal winter deals. Of this admittedly subjective selection of signings, which do you like best? Which other minor league or low-cost pickups do you like heading into 2020? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: The Starter Of The Decade

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In case you missed it, I named my all-decade lineup for 2010-19 earlier this week. Pitchers were omitted from that piece, but now we’ll dedicate this post to the most successful hurlers from 2010-19, and I’ll leave it up to you select the best one from the previous decade. Realistically, there are only a few pitchers capable of emerging victorious in this poll, but it’s still worthwhile to run down the top 10 from several important categories (minimum 1,000 innings). Playoff performance isn’t listed, but if that factors heavily into your judgment of pitchers, it could affect your choice. Special thanks to FanGraphs for the below data…

ERA:

FIP:

fWAR:

RA-9 WAR:

Strikeouts per nine:

  • 1. Yu Darvish/Chris Sale: 11.12
  • 2. Max Scherzer: 10.69
  • 3. Stephen Strasburg: 10.6
  • 4. Jacob deGrom: 10.25
  • 5. Gerrit Cole: 10.06
  • 6. Chris Archer: 9.84
  • 7. Clayton Kershaw: 9.83
  • 8. Corey Kluber: 9.8
  • 9. Trevor Bauer: 9.51
  • 10. Carlos Carrasco/Justin Verlander: 9.5

Walks per nine:

Cy Young Awards:

Innings:

  • 1. Justin Verlander: 2,142
  • 2. Max Scherzer: 2,063 2/3
  • 3. Clayton Kershaw: 1,995
  • 4. Zack Greinke: 1,984
  • 5. Jon Lester: 1,979 2/3
  • 6. Cole Hamels: 1,955
  • 7. David Price: 1,877 2/3
  • 8. Rick Porcello: 1,860 1/3
  • 9. James Shields: 1,840
  • 10. Madison Bumgarner: 1,836

Wins:

  • 1. Max Scherzer: 161
  • 2. Justin Verlander: 160
  • 3. Clayton Kershaw: 156
  • 4. Zack Greinke: 155
  • 5. Jon Lester: 148
  • 6. David Price: 139
  • 7. Rick Porcello: 135
  • 8. Gio Gonzalez: 122
  • 9. Madison Bumgarner: 119
  • 10. Adam Wainwright: 116

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Grade The Twins’ Rotation Moves

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The Twins’ biggest offseason need was no secret — apart from Jose Berrios, every member of their 2019 starting rotation was scheduled to reach free agency.  With Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Kyle Gibson all hitting the open market and Martin Perez also becoming a free agent after the Twins bought out their club option, the AL Central champs were faced with both a predicament and something of an opportunity.

While Minnesota starters collectively ranked in the top third or top half of the league in most major statistical categories in 2019, the rotation was seen as more of a solid complement to the team’s big-hitting lineup than as a strength unto itself.  There was certainly room for not just improvement, but significant improvement to the pitching corps, especially for a Twins club that entered the winter with very few future payroll commitments.  As chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told reporters after the season, the club was intent on adding “impact pitching” to its rotation and was open to spending to add those arms.

As the calendar has turned to the new year, Minnesota has indeed restocked its staff with starters both old and new, though on paper, some of that promised “impact” isn’t obviously present.  The first steps were equal parts promising and cost-effective for the Twins — Odorizzi accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer rather than test free agency, and then re-signing Pineda for two years and $20MM.

After those familiar faces returned to the fold, however, the Twins faced some long weeks of rumors and missed targets before eventually landing a pair of veterans.  Homer Bailey and Rich Hill each signed one-year contracts with Minnesota on the same day, with Bailey earning $7MM in guaranteed money and Hill pulling in $3MM guaranteed (with hefty incentives).  Bailey got his career on track with a solid 2019 season following multiple rough years with the Reds, while Hill isn’t going to be able to pitch until midseason due to his recovery from primary revision surgery.

The Twins pursued such names as Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Jordan Lyles, and Japanese hurler Shun Yamaguchi, yet all wound up signing elsewhere.  As for the team’s own remaining free agents, Gibson signed with the Rangers while Perez inked a deal with the Red Sox.  On the trade front, the Marlins’ Elieser Hernandez have been on the radar, though no deal has been completed.  This isn’t to say that Minnesota hasn’t been aggressive, as shown most clearly by their five-year, $100MM offer to Wheeler before the righty instead opted to sign with the Phillies.  But, the free agent pitching market moved much faster (and at higher costs) than expected, leaving the Twins missing out on many of their first-choice options.

Barring any further pickups via trades or free agency, the Twins’ Opening Day rotation now stands as Berrios, Odorizzi, and Bailey, with two of the young trio of Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe handling the final two slots.  Pineda is unavailable for the first 39 games of the season while he finishes out a 60-game PED suspension, and when he returns, one of Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe will continue to start until Hill is healthy and ready.  Top prospect Brusdar Graterol also looms as an early-season callup after making his MLB debut in 2019.

It isn’t the slam-dunk collection of upgrades many Twin Cities fans were hoping for, yet it’s also wrong to say that this group doesn’t have any talent.  While Hill’s injury status has long been a question mark, he has pitched like an ace when he has been healthy over the last four years.  Berrios might well rise to true ace status himself, if he can avoid another late-season slump and consistently pitch like he did in the first half of the 2019 season.  Odorizzi and Pineda both pitched well for Minnesota last season, and as a fifth starter option, Bailey isn’t a bad veteran arm to have amidst the younger hurlers.

Also, in not spending big now, the Twins are keeping some financial powder dry so they can spend later, potentially on a midseason trade acquisition if necessary.  Then there’s the additional chance that Minnesota could indeed spread some cash around this offseason, though on another major hitter (such as Josh Donaldson) rather than another pitcher.

What’s your take on Minnesota’s rotation moves?  (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Will Cubs End Up Trading A Star?

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When the Cubs came up short of the postseason this year, it broke a string of four consecutive appearances. It also prompted the organization to prepare for some major changes. To this point, we’ve heard lots of chatter featuring the team’s biggest stars as trade candidates. But no real change … yet.

It’s a bit of a curious situation. By all indications, the Cubs have reached the internal decision to get under the luxury tax line. There are clear financial incentives for teams to do so, at least every few seasons, to duck the biggest monetary penalties under the current CBA. But … now? After assembling this long-awaited core? And after signing Craig Kimbrel six months ago, in the middle of the season?

We’ve been led to believe that the Cubs baseball operations department feels it must explore deals involving its best players because it simply doesn’t have authorization to spend otherwise. And the status quo isn’t optimal for 2020 or beyond. That situation is rather difficult to square strategically with the Kimbrel signing, which occupied all of the team’s remaining flexibility. But perhaps ownership decided on this course more recently. The team is facing major Wrigley renovation cost overruns, albeit possibly of their own making.

Whatever the background, the situation remains: if the Cubs wish to change their roster, so far as we can discern, it’ll have to come via trade. The Cubs could try to shave some salary associated with the ill-fated Jason Heyward, Tyler Chatwood, and Daniel Descalso deals, though that doesn’t figure to be easy and would cost prospect capital to pull off. With a farm system already picked over for prior additions, any major overhaul will almost certainly require the departure of quite a significant player.

Javier Baez seems more like an extension target than a trade candidate, but we’ve heard loads of talk about Kris Bryant (at least, once his grievance is resolved). Willson Contreras was in the news quite a bit earlier in the winter. Yu Darvish doesn’t seem inclined to waive his no-trade rights, but could Jose Quintana be discussed? Or even Kyle Hendricks? Kyle Schwarber would no doubt be made available in some scenarios. And the team evidently isn’t seeing eye to eye with first baseman Anthony Rizzo; might there be a chance he’s moved?

At this point, we don’t really have great reason to think any particular player is likely to be sent out. Bryant and Contreras certainly occupy in-demand positions, but there hasn’t been a strong rumor indicating that a swap is approaching. We haven’t even heard specific rumors on all of the players listed above, but can the Cubs really take anyone off the table at this point?

There’s still loads of uncertainty, so it’s a good time to ask for everyone’s best guesses. So … will they make a deal? (Poll link for app users.)

And which player is likeliest to be moved? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Reds?

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We’re on the verge of concluding a decade that will go down as, at best, a mixed bag for the Reds. They broke a 14-season playoff drought in the first year of it, 2010, and then made the playoffs in two of the next three campaigns. But the Reds have revisited the dregs of the majors since then, having gone six years since their most recent playoff berth and their latest .500 season. The Reds are now just a couple months removed from wrapping up a 75-victory season, but they did make real progress then (it was their highest win total since 2014), and they’re currently amid an active winter.

Since free agency opened at the beginning of November, the Reds have signed two players they hope will be key contributors to their next playoff roster. They picked up Mike Moustakas on a four-year, $64MM contract a few weeks ago, and though Moose has played third base for almost all of his MLB career, the plan is for him to handle second in Cincinnati. While it’s a risky bet on the Reds’ part, Moustakas did perform well during a limited run as a second baseman with the division-rival Brewers last season.

The Reds reeled in their second regular position player of the offseason Monday, agreeing to a three-year pact worth $20MM-plus with Shogo Akiyama. The former Nippon Professional Baseball standout will be the Reds’ go-to guy in center field, though it’s anyone’s guess how they will assemble the rest of their outfield. Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Phil Ervin and Josh VanMeter are among several choices who could vie for roles, but as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained Monday, the Akiyama signing may give the team room to flip someone (Senzel?) for help at another position.

The Reds entered the offseason seemingly in need of aid at shortstop and catcher, but they haven’t added new faces at either spot. For at least the time being, Freddy Galvis and Tucker Barnhart remain the Reds’ top possibilities there. The rest of their infield looks stacked, though, with Moustakas at second, Joey Votto at first and Eugenio Suarez manning the hot corner. Likewise, the Reds’ rotation appears to be in enviable shape – Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and free-agent addition Wade Miley comprise a starting five most teams would be glad to have. Cincinnati’s bullpen isn’t as well off, but it was a decent group in 2019 that hasn’t lost any integral contributors since then.

Along with bettering their roster this winter, the Reds have seen most of their division stand pat or maybe even get worse. The Cardinals won the NL Central last season, but they’ve been quiet in recent months and could lose outfielder Marcell Ozuna in free agency (perhaps even to the Reds). The Brewers – who, as mentioned, bid adieu to Moustakas – haven’t made any huge additions. The Cubs have been a general disappointment for several months, though a shakeup of some sort still seems possible, and the Pirates probably won’t contend in the near term. All that said, the door could be open for the Reds to make a playoff push in 2020. Based on what they’ve done to this point in the offseason, do you expect that to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Shop Nolan Arenado?

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In five-time All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Rockies unquestionably have one of the majors’ blue-chip players. At the same time, though, Arenado’s on-field value could place him among the game’s most appealing trade chips. The Rockies did make a franchise-record commitment last offseason to Arenado, adding a guaranteed seven years and $234MM to the $26MM he was already set to rake in during the 2019 campaign. Based on that, Arenado should be a member of the Rockies for the long haul, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they’ll go in another direction this winter.

[RELATED: Remaining Needs – NL West]

As of a few weeks ago, the Rockies and general manager Jeff Bridich were reportedly open to listening to offers for the 28-year-old. The Braves and Rangers, teams that still haven’t filled their third base needs as the new year approaches, showed interest thereafter in Arenado. Meanwhile, the Nationals, Phillies, Dodgers and maybe the Twins come to mind as teams that could at least kick the tires of Arenado if they lose out on the top free-agent third baseman left on the board, Josh Donaldson, or fail to swing a trade for someone like Kris Bryant of the Cubs. (Bryant looks like a more realistic trade candidate than Arenado right now, though the service-time grievance the former filed against the Cubs – does he have one year of control left or two? – has helped prevent his market from heating up thus far.)

On the other hand, considering Arenado has established himself as one of the sport’s most valuable players, Colorado would likely be content to keep him. Indeed, Buster Olney of ESPN has recently heard that the Rockies aren’t aggressively shopping Arenado. While the team was woeful last season during a 71-win showing, Arenado did help the Rox to playoff berths in each of the previous two years. So, Bridich could regard the Rockies’ failed 2019 as a fluke and look for a bounce-back effort from his Arenado-led roster next season.

Even if the Rockies are willing to part with Arenado, though, an offer they deem palatable may not be easy to find. After all, Arenado’s contract still contains a boatload of money – the deal he signed before last season hasn’t even kicked in yet, though it looks reasonable enough in light of fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM pact with the Angels. Beyond that, Arenado has a full no-trade clause that gives him the right to veto any move. He also has the ability to opt out after the 2021 campaign, and if interested teams are worried he’ll take advantage of that, it’ll tamp down his trade value.

If not for Arenado’s opt-out clause, the Rockies would be in the catbird seat here. There wouldn’t be any real pressure to part with the face of their franchise and one of the greatest players they’ve ever had. But if the Rockies don’t expect to contend prior to Arenado’s opt-out chance, maybe they ought to market one of baseball’s leading superstars now.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading Miami’s Corey Dickerson Signing

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The Marlins’ signing of outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year, $17.5MM deal will not go down as this offseason’s most surprising–in fact, his ultimate guarantee was right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $15MM pact back in November. In terms of context, the deal also sits snugly alongside Kole Calhoun’s signature on a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona earlier this month.

Dickerson might be called the ideal of a solid regular. He’s not an elite defender, his 2018 Gold Glove notwithstanding, but his facility with the stick has made him a must-start during stints with the Rockies, Rays, Pirates and Phillies since breaking into the league 2013. The thirty-year-old owns a .286/.328/.504 slash line with 115 home runs in nearly 800 career games, with a 117 wRC+ suggesting he’s been nearly 20 percent better than an average hitter since 2013. By the latter metric, he’s performed comparably with players like Starling Marte (117 wRC+) and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+) over that span.

Dickerson has recorded 2.6 fWAR or better in three separate seasons as a full-timer, despite nagging injuries throughout his career; if he can perform to those levels for the Fish, there should be a lot of excess value in this deal. Of course, Dickerson may not spend his entire tenure with Miami, as the limited term of this deal might make him an attractive trade target at the ’20 and ’21 deadlines, assuming his continued health and Miami’s continuation in a textbook rebuild pattern (perhaps not a safe assumption considering Miami’s similarly savvy Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar pickups this winter).

Dickerson’s signing does also carry a few implications beyond just shoring up Miami’s corner outfield, as his relatively light commitment is further evidence that the ever-heightening AAV peaks achieved by premium performers in recent winters have yet to trickle down in the form of substantive raises for middle-class players. Moreover, Dickerson’s relative merits when pitted against free agents Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos may cast some doubt on the ability of those players to secure truly hefty guarantees before camp breaks.

Regardless, Miami’s signing of Dickerson reads like the move of a team inching its way out of a rebuild by committing a reasonable amount of money to a relatively stable, if imperfect, player in his prime; the club may yet have a few more losing years ahead, but it’s hard to accuse a team of “tanking” when they add players of his caliber.

Let’s open the floor: how do you grade Miami’s Dickerson addition? (Poll link for app users)


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