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Poll: Which Sub-.500 AL Team’s Having The Best Offseason?

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The Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers and Angels each entered the winter amid multiyear playoff droughts and on the heels of sub-.500 showings in 2019. No one from that American League quartet has been a sorrier bunch for longer than the White Sox, owners of an 11-year postseason-less skid. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels have at least been relevant more recently than Chicago, but success has still escaped those other clubs for far too long. However, judging by the teams’ actions in the past weeks, they’ve had their fill of serving as doormats in their league. The offseason has gotten off to rollicking starts for all of these franchises, each of which has made more than one significant addition since the floodgates opened in November.

The Angels, they of the pitiful 72-90 record last season, finally look as if they’re in decent position to capitalize on all-world center fielder Mike Trout’s presence. They added the foremost position player on the market, third baseman Anthony Rendon, on a whopper of a contract worth $245MM over seven years. The rotation-needy Halos have also picked up a pair of starters in Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Neither will be confused for an ace, but they should give the team much-needed competent innings at reasonable prices near the back of its rotation. If you’re a glass-half-empty type, though, you may be unimpressed by the Angels’ lack of a front-line starter pickup (though the return of Shohei Ohtani from Tommy John surgery should be a major help) and/or that they haven’t addressed their problems at catcher yet.

The White Sox, also coming off a 72-win season, have been extremely busy in upgrading their lineup. Their offense produced the third-fewest runs in the AL, but that should change for the better in a year with the signing of star catcher Yasmani Grandal (four years, $73MM). The White Sox also helped their cause by retaining first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu (three years, $50MM), and they’re clinging to hope that 24-year-old outfielder Nomar Mazara (acquired from Texas) will start living up to his immense promise now that he has changed teams. Even with those three in tow, the White Sox might not be done yet on the offensive end. They’re reportedly at the forefront of the sweepstakes for Edwin Encarnacion, yet another slugging 1B/DH, and remain in the mix for outfielder Nicholas Castellanos – possibly the second-best position player left in free agency.

Of course, upgrading at the plate hasn’t been Chicago’s sole focus. The White Sox made a large splash on the pitching side last weekend when they agreed to sign former Cy Young-winning southpaw Dallas Keuchel for three years and $55.5MM. He followed the much more modestly priced Gio Gonzalez as the second accomplished lefty the team signed for its rotation. With those two, ace Lucas Giolito, the high-upside Reynaldo Lopez–Dylan Cease–Michael Kopech trio, and (once he returns from Tommy John surgery) Carlos Rodon, the club actually has plenty to look forward to with regards to its starting staff.

The same can be said for the Blue Jays and Rangers, who have each spent the majority of the offseason bettering their rotations. Toronto, a lowly 67-95 last season, just took a four-year, $80MM gamble on ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu. After offering elite production in his final year as a Dodger, Ryu’s in line to lead a Jays staff that will also consist of fellow new additions Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker (returning from a torn ACL) and perhaps some combination of ex-Japanese star Shun Yamaguchi (yet another just-signed hurler), Trent Thornton, Jacob Waguespack, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay and stud prospect Nate Pearson. Unlike late last season, after the Jays traded two vet starters (Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez) and their rotation was a barren wasteland, possibilities abound.

On the offensive side, the Jays replaced departed first baseman Justin Smoak (now a Brewer) with ex-Brewer Travis Shaw in the corner infield. It’s hard to see that as an upgrade on paper, though, after the woeful 2019 Shaw had. But for one year and $4MM, it’ll look brilliant if Shaw returns anywhere near the 3.0-WAR production he managed from 2017-18.

As for Texas, this offseason looks like a bit of a mixed bag. The Rangers have not added at third base or catcher, two positions that still look iffy, even though they partook in the Rendon derby and have also been part of Josh Donaldson’s market. On the other hand, their rotation looks far superior to the 2019 group that got very little outside of the Mike Minor–Lance Lynn duo and played a key role in a 78-84 finish. Those two are back, while two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (acquired from the Indians), Kyle Gibson (three years, $28MM) and Jordan Lyles (two years, $16MM) will round out the quintet. For the first time in a while, it’s fair to say the Rangers’ rotation looks strong one through five.

All of these clubs have been extraordinarily active as they seek ways to move past their longstanding struggles in 2020. In your opinion, though, which has enjoyed the best offseason so far?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal

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Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?

For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.

Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?

Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.

Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.

For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.

So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Time For Indians To Trade Lindor, Clevinger?

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This has already been a winter of major change for the Indians. A couple months removed from their first non-playoff season since 2015, the Indians traded two-time American League Cy Young-winning right-hander Corey Kluber to the Rangers last weekend for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. Cleveland did pick up at least one intriguing piece in the 21-year-old, heat-throwing Clase, though it was also a cost-cutting move for the small-market club to get all of Kluber’s $17.5MM guarantee for 2020 off the books.

To the Indians’ credit, they did win 93 games in 2019 with little to no help from Kluber, who slumped through an uncharacteristically poor month before succumbing to a season-ending broken forearm May 1. So, maybe getting rid of Kluber in favor of a Shane Bieber–Mike Clevinger–Carlos Carrasco–Aaron Civale–Zach Plesac rotation won’t have a deleterious effect their fortunes. Maybe they remain well-equipped to compete next year in the AL Central, which has multiple bottom-feeding teams and has seen its reigning champion (Minnesota) make no clear improvements since the offseason got underway. Or maybe the Kluber trade was the first monumental deal the Indians will make in an effort to cut money and look toward the future.

For Cleveland, there’s no bigger decision than whether to trade four-time All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who has popped up in many rumors over the past few months. Lindor’s one of the finest players in the game – no doubt the Indians’ best – but it seems inevitable they’ll trade him in the next couple years. A free agent a pair of offseasons from now, Lindor’s projected to earn $16.7MM in arbitration for 2020. That’s unquestionably a reasonable sum for what he brings to the table and an amount all teams (including the Indians) should be able to afford, but perhaps they’ll sell Lindor off now before his control continues to dwindle. It’s at least under consideration, as they’ve reportedly asked interested teams (the Dodgers, Padres and Reds are among them) for their best and last offers heading into the weekend.

Other than Lindor, the Indians have at least one other extremely valuable trade chip in Clevinger. Set to turn 29 on Saturday, the righty has been one of baseball’s most effective starters since his 2017 breakout. Clevinger still has three years of control left (and should make less than $5MM next season), so he looks like someone the Indians should keep if the goal is to push for a World Series in the near term. However, there’s said to be plenty of trade interest in Clevinger, meaning it’s possible we’ve seen the last of him in an Indians uniform if another team bowls them over with a proposal that’s too enticing to decline. The Indians, for their part, have understandably placed a “crazy high” asking price on Clevinger, per reporter Robert Murray.

While we don’t know exactly what teams have offered (or will offer) for Lindor and Clevinger, it’s fair to say both players are capable of bringing back a haul in a trade. Therefore, it’s reasonable to wonder what the Indians should do with the two of them going forward. Should they retain one or both and try to return to the playoffs next season, or is it time for the franchise to sell high?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’s The Best Starter In Baseball?

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The Yankees officially introduced just-signed right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Wednesday. The club agreed last week to ink the former Pirate and Astro to a history-making nine-year, $324MM deal that ranks No. 1 all-time among pitchers in both length and contract value. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees pursued Cole on multiple occasions in the past, but they finally reeled him in 11 years after drafting (and failing to sign) the flamethrower in 2008. Now, the Yankees’ hope is that Cole will help deliver the franchise its first World Series title since 2009 next season and serve a key role in another Bronx dynasty.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday (via Dan Federico of Bronx to Bushville) that the team landed “arguably the game’s best pitcher” in the 29-year-old Cole. There’s certainly a case that Boone is correct, especially considering Cole struck out 326 batters and recorded a stingy 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP across 212 1/3 innings last season. At the same time, though, there are a few other starters who could hold the honor over Cole.

There may not be a stronger candidate than another New York hurler, Mets righty Jacob deGrom, who has won the past two NL Cy Young Awards. The 31-year-old owns an eye-popping 2.62 ERA/2.78 FIP with 10.25 K/9 against 2.17 BB/9 since he debuted in 2014. Fellow 2019 Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, Cole’s teammate in Houston each of the previous two seasons, has a case as well. So does the Nationals’ Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young recipient who turned in another fantastic (but injury-limited) showing this year.

Of course, beyond Cole, deGrom, Verlander and Scherzer, there are plenty of other outstanding starters you may prefer. At this point, though, it seems difficult to go outside that group to choose the preeminent starter in baseball. So, who’s your pick?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Corey Kluber Trade

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The extraordinarily fruitful Corey Kluber era just came to an end for Cleveland. The Indians decided over the weekend to trade the two-time American League Cy Young-winning right-hander to the Rangers for a package consisting of righty reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields.

At least on paper, the Rangers now have an extremely formidable rotation. Lance Lynn and Mike Minor were among the premier starters in the game last season, but the Rangers struggled to complement them with capable options. However, the team has since added three credible big league starters in Kluber and free-agent signings Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, and suddenly owns one of the best-looking staffs in the majors as a result.

To secure the 33-year-old Kluber, who will be expensive in 2020 ($17.5MM salary) and comes with an $18MM option or a $1MM buyout for 2021, the Rangers parted with at least one intriguing player in Clase. Just 21 years old, Clase made a brief major league debut in 2019 and proceeded to toss 23 1/3 innings of 2.31 ERA/3.43 FIP ball with 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 60.6 percent groundball rate. All of those numbers stand out, as does the 99.3 mph average fastball velocity Clase posted in the process.

Clase seems to have the makings of a dominant big leaguer, whereas the 27-year-old DeShields has mostly hovered around replacement-level value over the past couple seasons after making a solid debut in 2015. Nevertheless, the Indians are banking on the fleet-of-foot DeShields putting it all together in their uniform, as they’ll control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.

Beyond the Clase and DeShields acquisitions, the small-market Indians saved a substantial amount of money in getting rid of Kluber. The Indians opened last season with a payroll around $120MM, per Cot’s, but they’re estimated to begin next year in the $91MM range, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Cleveland could use some of the money that had been earmarked for Kluber to address at least one other need (second base? Outfield?). Plus, the Indians are already accustomed to life without Kluber, who didn’t pitch beyond May 1 last season after suffering a fractured forearm. Kluber had a surprisingly difficult time during that one-month span, as his 5.80 ERA over seven starts shows, and the Indians then saw Shane Bieber turn into a star, Mike Clevinger further establish himself as an excellent starter, and Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac make encouraging debuts. They’re also slated to welcome back the consistently outstanding Carlos Carrasco, who missed the majority of 2019 because of a leukemia diagnosis, to their rotation.

Now, both the Rangers and Indians seem to have set their starting fives well before the beginning of next season. In your opinion, though, did one team make out better than the other in the trade?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

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With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

MLBTR Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

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The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.

We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?

Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?

The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.

But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.

In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.

We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?

Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)


How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)


What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Best $200MM-Plus Contract

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When it comes to the money handed out, this has been one of the most active weeks in the history of Major League Baseball. At the Winter Meetings, we saw two right-handers – Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) – as well as third baseman Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245MM) secure contracts worth a combined $814MM. All three are clients of super-agent Scott Boras, which makes this a glorious week for him. But which of these deals will work out the best?

Let’s start at the top with Cole, now the highest-paid pitcher the game has ever seen. He’s emigrating from the Astros to the rival Yankees, who finally reeled in their so-called white whale. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees had previously chased Cole on multiple occasions, only to come up short. Of course, the 29-year-old Cole would’ve been much cheaper in the past, but he’s now the most expensive player on the Yankees’ roster.

Before Cole signed with the Yankees, Strasburg briefly had the honor of owning the richest all-time payday among MLB pitchers. Strasburg earned that after several stellar seasons in Washington, where he collected World Series MVP honors in 2019 after the Nats took down Cole and the Astros. Washington couldn’t let Strasburg go in the wake of his fall heroics, instead retaining him to keep forming a dominant trio with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Although Strasburg, 31, is much cheaper than Cole, it’s worth noting he’s a couple years older.

Rendon joined Strasburg as an indispensable part of the Nationals’ 2019 title-winning club, but the Nats weren’t ready to go all-out to keep both of them. As a result, Rendon exited after the Strasburg re-up to accept the Angels’ offer on Wednesday. The Angels hope the 29-year-old Rendon and the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, will help spark a playoff run in 2020 after years of irrelevance.

There’s no going back for the teams that signed Cole, Strasburg or Rendon. All three are locked into their incredibly large guarantees for the foreseeable future. In your opinion, though, which deal will work out the best?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract

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With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.

Josh Donaldson | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.

It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.

Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.

Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.

Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…

Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Gerrit Cole?

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High-level meetings are taking place. Offers are coming in. All indications are that the Gerrit Cole bidding is at a full sprint, spurred in part by the stunningly lucrative deal reached between the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. That record-setting $245MM contract ups the ante for teams interested in the younger and higher-octane Cole. The $300MM threshold once seemed a pie-in-the-sky number. No more.

With the expectation that Cole will take the best offer made, every team in baseball is theoretically in play. But it seems the market has already largely developed. The Angels and Yankees are widely cited as the two most active pursuers. The Dodgers’ stance isn’t quite clear. The Phillies and Rangers are reportedly still circling. Perhaps it’s still possible there’s a mystery bidder.

Where do you think Cole will end up?

(Poll link for app users; responses order randomized.)

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