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MLBTR Poll: Julio Teheran’s Option

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The Braves are currently licking their wounds after collapsing in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup against the Cardinals on Thursday. Before the series began, Atlanta made the decision to leave right-hander Julio Teheran off its roster in order to deepen its bench. It wasn’t long ago that keeping Teheran out of a playoff series would have been unthinkable for the Braves, as he was once among the crown jewels of the franchise. In fact, during his first two full seasons (2013-14), Teheran notched 63 starts and 406 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA/3.58 FIP ball with 7.88 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Prior to the second of those seasons, the Braves locked up Teheran to an extension worth a guaranteed $32.4MM over six years. At the time, it was the second-largest pact given to a pitcher with just two years’ service time.

Now 28, Teheran has hung with the Braves through the entirety of his deal, though he hasn’t been able to deliver the results he did during his early career coming-out party. Now, it’s possible he’s just about at the end of the line as a Brave. After the season concludes, the Braves will have a call to make on whether to exercise the $12MM club option for 2020 that they included in Teheran’s contract. They could pick it up with the goal of retaining Teheran, exercise it and try to trade him or decline it in favor of a $1MM buyout.

A one-year, $12MM gamble on Teheran wouldn’t look wholly unappealing for the Braves or anyone else. In Atlanta’s case, the club will head into the offseason with only Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz looking sure to return from this year’s staff (Game 1 NLDS starter Dallas Keuchel is a pending free agent). The team could also explore free agency and trades for other possible solutions and-or turn to young arms like Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller sometime in 2020. That foursome has little to no major league experience under its belt, though. Wright and Wilson have struggled over a small sample of MLB innings, while Anderson and Muller have not debuted yet.

If nothing else, Teheran has shown a consistent ability to eat innings. He’s fresh off his seventh consecutive regular season of 30-plus starts. Moreover, in 2019, Teheran continued an annual trend of yielding a low batting average on balls in play (.266), recording a solid home run-to-fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and outproducing his fielding-independent numbers. Across a team-high 174 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.81 ERA despite a far less appealing 4.66 FIP, 5.26 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. While Teheran added a career-high 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings, he also turned in his second-largest walk rate (4.28 BB/9), once again induced few ground balls (39 percent), logged an all-time low swinging-strike percentage (9.2) and averaged a personal-worst 89.7 mph on his four-seam fastball – the pitch he relies on most.

Teheran clearly has his flaws, but that doesn’t mean the Braves will move on from him. It also doesn’t mean he’ll wind up making zero contributions this postseason (he could get back on their roster immediately as a result of Chris Martin’s oblique injury). Atlanta obviously has greater priorities right now than worrying about Teheran’s future, but once the Braves’ season ends, what do you think they’ll do with him?

(Poll link for app users)

Picking Favorites In The NLDS Matchups

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So far, MLBTR’s readers are 2-for-2 in picking favorites, having nailed the NL and AL Wild Card matches. Are we on to something here or is it just sample-size luck? It’s a fun exercise in any event, so let’s do it again for the two National League Division Series matchups that are kicking off this evening.

The Braves and Cardinals get things rolling with a game 1 duel between Dallas Keuchel and Miles Mikolas. On paper, this is a tight series. Both teams feature exceptional veteran first basemen (Freddie Freeman vs. Paul Goldschmidt) and dueling young aces (Mike Soroka vs. Jack Flaherty). The Braves have the flashiest single star player in Ronald Acuna Jr., but the Cardinals feature a broad and deep array of talent. Plus, the Braves are dinged up, having lost several key contributors and dealt with late-season health issues for Freeman and Acuna. While the Atlanta organization will call upon contributions from a variety of players added during the course of the 2019 season — including a trio of relief acquisitions and a trio of veteran position players acquired after the trade deadline — the Cards are rolling with a roster that didn’t feature any major outside, mid-season supplementation.

Who ya got? (Poll link for app users.)

It’s hard not to like the Dodgers’ chances at a third-straight World Series appearance, but in baseball the margins are thin and the bounces of the ball can be fickle. The reward for the outstanding pole-to-pole work from the Los Angeles club is a match with a talent-laden Nats team. These two clubs turned in an absolute barn-burner when they met in the NLDS in 2016. Both rosters feature star hitters, quality depth pieces, rotation aces, and …. highly questionable high-leverage relievers. That’s a formula for theatrics. If there’s a single clear advantage for one team, it’s probably the Dodgers’ far superior pitching depth, with the relief unit expected to be bolstered by several starting-capable hurlers. But there’s still a path for the Nats — if their three staff aces can fend off the Dodgers’ deep and balanced lineup and minimize the exposure of the ever-tottering D.C. bullpen.

Which team has the advantage? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: AL Wild-Card Matchup

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The Athletics are minutes away from hosting the Rays in a wild-card matchup consisting of two of the majors’ lowest-spending teams. Even though the A’s and Rays don’t boast the spending power of fellow AL playoff clubs such as the Yankees and Astros, that didn’t stop either Oakland or Tampa Bay from enjoying outstanding regular seasons. The A’s, built by executive vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst, amassed 97 wins and posted the majors’ fifth-best run differential (plus-165). The Rays, led by by their own formidable two-man setup of senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and GM Erik Neander, rival the A’s in victories (96) and run differential (plus-113, which places seventh in the game).

Oakland will initially turn to left-hander Sean Manaea in Wednesday’s matchup, even though he missed the majority of the regular season while recovering from the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. The 27-year-old Manaea was fantastic during the five starts he did make this season, though, having notched a sterling 1.21 ERA (with a less imposing 3.42 FIP) and 9.1 K/9 against 2.12 BB/9 in 29 2/3 innings. He’ll try to contain a Rays lineup that was tough on lefties during the regular campaign, as the unit logged the league’s 11th-highest wRC+ (101) versus southpaws.

Meanwhile, the Rays will count on the battle-tested Charlie Morton, a brilliant offseason free-agent signing who’s just two falls removed from serving as a playoff hero for World Series-winning Houston. The 35-year-old Morton has been among the absolute best pitchers in baseball in 2019, evidenced by the 3.05 ERA/2.81 FIP with 11.1 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9 he has put forth across a career-high 194 2/3 frames. He’ll deal with an A’s offense that has caused headaches for righties, who yielded a 104 wRC+ (the game’s sixth-highest figure) to Oakland’s hitters. Center fielder Mark Canha, first baseman Matt Olson, shortstop Marcus Semien and third baseman Matt Chapman have made life especially miserable on RHPs this season.

In all likelihood, both teams’ bullpens will figure prominently in tonight’s contest. Both groups were among the league’s most successful in the regular season, and the two look especially loaded for a one-game playoff. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, breakout righty Tyler Glasnow and dominant in-season pickup Nick Anderson are at the forefront of the Rays’ options, while the A’s bring to the table imposing youngsters Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk, not to mention lights-out closer Liam Hendriks and workhorse righty Yusmeiro Petit, among others.

Regardless of who wins tonight, the hope is the game will rival the excitement of Tuesday’s Nationals-Brewers matchup. The home team, Washington, survived a thriller to advance to the National League Division Series. Now, will the A’s also hold serve in their stadium? Or will the Rays move on to face the top-seeded Astros in the ALDS?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: NL Wild Card Matchup

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It’s a quiet morning, but the evening promises to be filled with fireworks. The Nats and Brewers will square off in D.C. after falling shy in their respective divisions but out-running the rest of the National League Wild Card field.

All Wild Card games come with the potential to be … well, wild. The format allows teams to compile rosters aimed at maximizing situational possibilities in one single game. And the win-or-go-home setting ensures that those rosters are unloaded — sometimes in creative fashion — without concern for ensuing contests. But this particular matchup is especially intriguing. In part by design and in part by happenstance, these teams have polar-opposite distributions of pitching talent.

The Nats are in good shape on paper, as they’ll trot out one of the game’s preeminent aces and competitors in Max Scherzer. An exceedingly unreliable bullpen lies in wait, but the club may attempt to forego it entirely by calling upon their other top-shelf starters — Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin — to clamp down on a Brewers lineup that managed to produce a late winning streak even after losing superstar Christian Yelich for the season. In theory, it’s a reasonably straightforward situation for Nats skipper Davey Martinez, but there could easily be some nervy moments as he decides whether and when to pull his horses and hand the ball off to Sean Doolittle and company.

The Brewers will also call upon their best starter in Brandon Woodruff. But he won’t be tasked with turning in a lengthy, shut-down performance. The young righty has only made a pair of two-inning appearances since returning from injury and surely won’t be extended too far beyond that point. His abbreviated start will kick off a cat-and-mouse bullpen game that is likely to feature multiple frames from relief ace Josh Hader and gobs of mixing and matching. It’ll be fascinating to see how manager Craig Counsell attempts to navigate a deep and balanced Nationals lineup. He’ll no doubt try to get as many outs as possible from his best arms while deploying situational relievers when necessary. The Milwaukee pitching situation could take any number of different paths and involve every hurler on the roster.

Which team has the edge in the NL Wild Card? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Grading Manny Machado’s 2019

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The long-suffering Padres made a stunning strike in free agency last offseason when they signed former Orioles and Dodgers  infielder Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM contract in late February. For a short period, Machado’s deal stood as the richest in the history of the game. Outfielder Bryce Harper – who, along with Machado – owned baseball-related headlines last winter, surpassed him less than two weeks later with a 13-year, $330MM guarantee from the Phillies. Harper was more good than great in the first year of his accord, though, while Machado probably wasn’t as strong as many expected him to be in his San Diego debut.

In the end, neither Harper nor Machado led their teams to drought-breaking playoff berths in 2019. The Padres won a paltry 70 games and extended their postseason-less streak to a whopping 13 years, though they surely remain hopeful Machado will help them back to relevance in short order. However, for the Padres to maximize their chances of success as they move ahead, they’re going to need the more productive version of Machado to reappear.

To his credit, Machado continued an impressive run of durability in 2019, appearing in at least 156 games for the fifth consecutive season. He also belted upward of 30 home runs (32) for the fifth year in a row. Overall, though, the Machado who was a dominant offensive player as recently as 2018, when he posted a wRC+ of 140 en route to 6.2 fWAR, wasn’t present. Machado’s wRC+ dropped to 108 this year, while his fWAR total fell to 3.0. Both figures are respectable, but they don’t make for superstar-caliber output. The same can obviously be said of the .256/.334/.462 line Machado recorded over 661 plate appearances. And Statcast doesn’t indicate Machado deserved a better fate at the plate, evidenced by his matching .339 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA (a steep drop-off from his .377/.372 in 2018).

On the defensive side, Machado remained a stalwart at third base, where he accounted for 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-2.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. Per the metrics, Machado was less successful at shortstop (minus-2 DRS, minus-1.5 UZR), but that doesn’t figure to be his long-term spot anyway. He saw 299 innings at the position because of multiple lengthy injured list stints for rookie Fernando Tatis Jr., who, when healthy, showed why he’s one of the most coveted young players in baseball.

Machado, for his part, is still plenty youthful in his own right. He won’t turn 28 until next July, and even though the four-time All-Star wasn’t a force this season, the left side of San Diego’s infield will remain in enviable shape going forward with him and Tatis in the fold. As for this year, though, how would you assess Machado’s performance?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Grading Bryce Harper’s 2019

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Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.

While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.

Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.

It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.

The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.

Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.

Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Cubs’ Biggest Roster Need

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There’s still a lot of time left to dissect what could be a fascinating upcoming offseason for the Cubs. Questions abound for the organization. This time last year, it wasn’t yet clear how limited the spending capacity would be. We’ve got quite a bit left to learn before we can seriously contemplate just how the club can fill its chief needs. But with the team now officially bounced from the postseason race, it seems an opportune moment to gauge the sentiment of the MLBTR readership on the key roster issues facing the team moving forward.

Looking forward, the Cubs will dispatch Ben Zobrist, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek, and the recently acquired Nicholas Castellanos onto the open market. Otherwise, the club controls the remainder of the roster. Barring a major trade, there isn’t a need behind the dish (Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini), in the corner infield (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo), or at shortstop (Javier Baez). There are a variety of multi-positional players floating around, but nobody has a firm claim to second base. The team can account for most of the necessary outfield, rotation, and bullpen spots, but could clearly stand to improve in all of those areas.

There’s a basic snapshot. What do you think the biggest need is for the Cubbies? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Will The Phillies Fire Gabe Kapler?

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The Phillies still have a handful of games remaining, but their loss to the division-rival Nationals on Tuesday afternoon all but ended their season. Philadelphia dropped to 79-77, officially eliminating the team from playoff contention and leaving it to look ahead to the winter. The Phillies were more aggressive than any other franchise in baseball last offseason, which led to hope they’d put an end to a lengthy playoff drought as early as this year. Instead, though, they’ve now gone eight straight seasons without a berth, and second-year manager Gabe Kapler could be one of the fall guys for their most recent failings.

Just last week, general manager Matt Klentak credited Kapler for “doing a very good job,” adding that “the group is playing hard down the stretch.” But the Phillies entered the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader mired in a stretch of five losses in six games, and the Nats outscored them 21-4 over the first three matchups of their series. That skid “speaks loudly of a dead team playing out the string,” opines NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, who notes that owner John Middleton will have more say than Klentak in deciding Kapler’s future.

After Middleton authorized a few high-cost acquisitions last offseason, including Bryce Harper’s historic $330MM contract, it’s possible he’ll now decide to look elsewhere in the dugout. There has been improvement this year compared to last season’s 80-82 finish, though the Phillies arguably haven’t progressed enough under Kapler. The team collapsed in the second half of last year, when it led the NL East with a 65-52 record as late as Aug. 12 before sputtering to a 15-28 mark over its final 43 contests. While this season’s squad didn’t control the division as late into the summer, it was in first place with a 38-29 record on June 11. Since then? Forty-one wins, 48 losses.

In fairness to Kapler, injury and pitching issues have played obvious roles in the demise of the 2019 Phillies. While the team wouldn’t solve those problems with a managerial change, they could nonetheless help hasten Kapler’s exit. If that happens, perhaps the Phillies will reverse course on their next managerial hire and look for an established option (Joe Girardi? Joe Maddon?) rather than a neophyte to lead their 2020 roster.

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Should The Mets Replace Mickey Callaway This Fall?

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Mets manager Mickey Callaway has been on a warm seat for a good bit of his tenure. The temperature has gone up and down at various points, but has never fully cooled — even as GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered near-term support for the skipper. After a disappointing season featuring good-but-not-great results following significant roster investments, should the team move on?

When we asked back in June whether the Mets should dump Callaway in the middle of the season, two-thirds of respondents were in favor. The club sank further from that point but then bounced back and will likely finish the season with a winning record. But the postseason won’t happen barring a total miracle. (Current odds, per Fangraphs: 0.3%.)

It’s awfully difficult to blame Callaway entirely for the way things have gone. Injuries and lack of roster depth in key areas have hurt. Not all of the baseball operations decisions have worked out as hoped. The bullpen has been a mess beyond Callaway’s control, even if his management of it hasn’t always been optimal. He has at least held things together through an undeniably difficult stretch. And he’s already under contract for 2020 with an option for another season.

On the other hand, Callaway has now been at the helm for a pair of seasons without a postseason appearance to show for it. He wasn’t hired by Van Wagenen, for what that’s worth. There’s year-to-year improvement in terms of wins and losses, but it’s also fair to wonder whether the overall mix is one that will allow the Mets to break through in a tough division. Roster maximization is always the key, but there’s an argument that a makeover in the dugout leadership would be a sensible accompaniment for some other offseason changes — if only to instill a sense of urgency. There are some venerable former managers out there in search of new gigs, with more potentially soon to join them.

In the unlikely event that the Mets somehow sneak into a Wild Card spot, it seems fair to presume that Callaway will be safe. But if the season ends in the manner it’s likely to — nice try, but falling short — what ought the organization do? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Joe Maddon’s Future

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To say Cubs manager Joe Maddon’s stint with the franchise has been a success would be a massive understatement. Since the Cubs hired the former Tampa Bay skipper in November 2014, they’ve amassed a sterling regular-season record of 469-335 and made the playoffs four consecutive times. Undoubtedly, though, the greatest triumph during Maddon’s days atop the Cubs’ dugout has been the World Series title they won in 2016, ending a 108-year drought for the North Siders. It’s likely Maddon will always be a beloved Cubs figure as a result of that victory and the rest of his accomplishments with the organization, but after a half-decade, the 65-year-old’s tenure may be winding down.

Although he’s in the last year of his contract, Maddon said just last month that he expects to manage the Cubs again in 2020. However, that was before a late-season collapse by Chicago, which led the NL Central race by two games over Milwaukee at the time of Maddon’s comments. Now, not only are the Cubs out of contention in the division with a week left in the season, but they’re very likely to miss the playoffs for the first time during the Maddon era. At 82-74, they’re seven games back of the archrival Cardinals in the Central and four behind the Brewers and Nationals in the wild-card hunt. With the season on the line, the Cubs have dropped six straight games, all but knocking themselves out of the race in the process.

Thanks in large part to their recent skid, the Cubs have gone a dismal 9-12 in September. It would surely be unfair to solely blame Maddon for that – they’ve dealt with injuries to the likes of Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Cole Hamels, after all, and big-money closer Craig Kimbrel can’t seem to buy a save – but the Cubs could nonetheless elect to go in a different direction at manager. Barring a last-second surge (plus a horrible finish for the Brewers or Nats), president of baseball operations Theo Epstein at least figures to seriously make over the Cubs’ roster during the offseason. Do you expect a change in the dugout to accompany that?

(Poll link for app users)

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