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MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

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With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

MLBTR Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

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The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.

We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?

Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?

The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.

But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.

In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.

We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?

Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)


How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)


What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Best $200MM-Plus Contract

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When it comes to the money handed out, this has been one of the most active weeks in the history of Major League Baseball. At the Winter Meetings, we saw two right-handers – Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) – as well as third baseman Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245MM) secure contracts worth a combined $814MM. All three are clients of super-agent Scott Boras, which makes this a glorious week for him. But which of these deals will work out the best?

Let’s start at the top with Cole, now the highest-paid pitcher the game has ever seen. He’s emigrating from the Astros to the rival Yankees, who finally reeled in their so-called white whale. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees had previously chased Cole on multiple occasions, only to come up short. Of course, the 29-year-old Cole would’ve been much cheaper in the past, but he’s now the most expensive player on the Yankees’ roster.

Before Cole signed with the Yankees, Strasburg briefly had the honor of owning the richest all-time payday among MLB pitchers. Strasburg earned that after several stellar seasons in Washington, where he collected World Series MVP honors in 2019 after the Nats took down Cole and the Astros. Washington couldn’t let Strasburg go in the wake of his fall heroics, instead retaining him to keep forming a dominant trio with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Although Strasburg, 31, is much cheaper than Cole, it’s worth noting he’s a couple years older.

Rendon joined Strasburg as an indispensable part of the Nationals’ 2019 title-winning club, but the Nats weren’t ready to go all-out to keep both of them. As a result, Rendon exited after the Strasburg re-up to accept the Angels’ offer on Wednesday. The Angels hope the 29-year-old Rendon and the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, will help spark a playoff run in 2020 after years of irrelevance.

There’s no going back for the teams that signed Cole, Strasburg or Rendon. All three are locked into their incredibly large guarantees for the foreseeable future. In your opinion, though, which deal will work out the best?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract

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With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.

Josh Donaldson | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.

It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.

Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.

Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.

Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…

Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Gerrit Cole?

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High-level meetings are taking place. Offers are coming in. All indications are that the Gerrit Cole bidding is at a full sprint, spurred in part by the stunningly lucrative deal reached between the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. That record-setting $245MM contract ups the ante for teams interested in the younger and higher-octane Cole. The $300MM threshold once seemed a pie-in-the-sky number. No more.

With the expectation that Cole will take the best offer made, every team in baseball is theoretically in play. But it seems the market has already largely developed. The Angels and Yankees are widely cited as the two most active pursuers. The Dodgers’ stance isn’t quite clear. The Phillies and Rangers are reportedly still circling. Perhaps it’s still possible there’s a mystery bidder.

Where do you think Cole will end up?

(Poll link for app users; responses order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Rays/Padres Trade

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While Thursday’s Rays/Padres deal headlined by Tommy Pham and Hunter Renfroe likely won’t go down as this winter’s most shocking, the trade had something to say about the respective offseason strategies of both clubs. Tampa Bay, for their part, cut salary, increased controllability, and added yet another prized infield prospect to an already enviable collection. San Diego, true to their stated desire for a near-term return to contention, look to have secured an immediate improvement at the top of their lineup while also shuffling in an interesting two-way player likely capable of providing the big league roster with some extra support.

Hunter Renfroe is the most immediate addition to the Rays’ roster, even if this deal may have been more about the acquisition of infield prospect Xavier Edwards from the viewpoint of Tampa Bay GM Erik Neander. Renfroe has gained his share of detractors over the years for a free-swinging, low-OBP approach at the plate, but 2019 saw him finally realize the defensive potential many scouts foresaw when he was a top-100 prospect. Lining up primarily in the corners with a few starts in center, the former Bulldog recorded 22 Defensive Runs Saved and a 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating last year, after recording average-or-worse marks in those categories the year prior. His arm is also touted as one of MLB’s most imposing.

Observers noting Renfroe’s underwhelming 98 wRC+ last year might be well-served to remember that the 27-year-old had a .252/.308/.613 line (132 wRC+) with 27 home runs heading into the All-Star break last year, before a variety of injuries were believed to have led to a precipitous second-half decline (Renfroe ended his season with a foot surgery). But even if Renfroe proves to be the roughly average hitter he’s been over the course of his career, Neander will have acquired a defensive standout capable of providing power, if nothing else, to the Rays’ lineup; better yet, he’s projected to make just $3.4MM in his first trip through arb, making him a very affordable source of said power.

As for the second aspect of this deal for the Rays, Edwards is a 20-year-old speedster who reached High-A last season. He’s hit just one home run in over 700 plate appearances since making his minor-league debut in 2018, but the youngster has terrorized pitchers (with a .328/.395/.399 career slash) and scorched the basepaths (56 steals in 168 games). When he was taken with the 38th-overall pick in the 2018 draft, MLB Pipeline relayed that scouts observed “excellent actions and footwork at shortstop” with an arm sufficient for the infield’s left side; he’s mostly split time between short and second so far in the minors, but it stands to reason his speed would play in center, as well. The Rays also acquired a PTBNL in this deal, which is not to be disregarded when said player is coming from a loaded San Diego system.

In Pham, the Padres added a player with a clear leg up on Renfroe for the title of “Best MLB Player” involved in this deal. While, at 31, he may never again reach the vertigo-inducing heights he climbed in 2017 with the Cardinals (149 wRC+ in 530 PAs), he’s still been an excellent player over the last two seasons in Tampa. His 12.1 percent walk rate, .186 isolated slugging mark, and 125 wRC+ since the beginning of 2018 all bear the markings of a standout hitter–and that’s before adding in the 42 homers and 40 steals he’s managed in that time. At an expected arbitration award of $8.6MM in his penultimate trip through the process, Pham rates as an immediate offensive upgrade over Renfroe, while drawing a salary that will possibly be less than half of what Marcell Ozuna figures to command this offseason.

Jake Cronenworth, the second player headed to San Diego in this deal, is a 25-year-old infielder capable of handling mop-up pitching duties in a pinch. Before 2019, the former Wolverine had never recorded a slugging mark north of .400 in his minor league career, but his first prolonged exposure to Triple-A baseball yielded an immediate improvement at the plate last year (surprise!). His .329/.422/.511 line with 10 homers in 419 plate appearances would lead one to believe that he’s ready for at least a part-time role in the bigs, even if those numbers were inflated by context somewhat; of course, hitting environment cuts both ways in prospect evaluation, so Cronenworth should be commended for being able to log 7.1 scoreless innings as a part-time pitcher in 2019, as well.

So, here we have a deal that, like a previous deal swung by Padres GM AJ Preller this offseason, seems to fit clear needs for both clubs. Question is, whose side do you like best?

First, Tampa Bay…

(Poll link for app users)


And San Diego…

(Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Grading The Mike Moustakas Signing

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The Reds are just a couple months removed from wrapping up a 75-win campaign, their sixth straight sub-.500 showing and sixth in a row without a playoff berth. President of baseball operations Dick Williams made it clear entering the offseason that he had seen enough. Williams vowed that the Reds would be players on the open market, saying at the beginning of October the club would “be aggressive in trying to get some guys in free agency.” However, as the saying goes, actions speak louder than words. Two months later, it’s clear Williams wasn’t simply telling disgruntled Reds fans what they wanted to hear.

The Williams-led Reds made an enormous and shocking splash in free agency on Monday, adding infielder Mike Moustakas on a four-year, $64MM guarantee. It was a stunning move for multiple reasons, including the price tag and that Moustakas’ primary position – third base – is already spoken for in Cincinnati. He’s not going to steal the job from incumbent Eugenio Suarez, who’s fresh off a 49-home run season, nor is he a threat to swipe first from franchise legend Joey Votto. That presumably leaves second base for Moustakas. The keystone was an area of need for the Reds prior to the Moustakas signing, and the 31-year-old showed last season he was capable of handling himself there as a member of the division-rival Brewers. Now that Moustakas is aboard, it seems likely youngster Nick Senzel will remain their center fielder instead of shifting to the keystone. So, it’s almost like two decisions in one for the Reds.

As for the cost, it’s a whopper of a deal from both sides’ perspective, especially considering MLBTR was among the outlets that projected a payday in the $20MM range for Moustakas at the start of free agency. That said, one could argue it’s a market correction after back-to-back difficult offseasons for Moustakas. “Difficult” is relative in this case, of course, as the Scott Boras client did rack up contracts worth a guaranteed $16.5MM in that time frame. However, despite a lengthy track record of solid production, Moustakas was unable to score a contract of more than one year in either case. Now, for a truckload of cash, the Reds are getting a player with five seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR and another five of 20-plus home runs on his resume. Moustakas smashed 35 HRs during a homer-heavy league year in 2019, when he slashed .254/.329/.516 and put up 2.8 fWAR across 584 plate appearances.

With Moose in the mix, the majority of Cincy’s infield looks settled. However, the team’s position player cast arguably still has needs at shortstop, catcher and in the outfield. Whether they’ll be as aggressive in trying to upgrade those spots remains to be seen in the wake of the pact they doled out for Moustakas. For now, though, what do you think of this big-time Cincy splash?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Largest Guarantee Among Potential NPB Imports

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In addition to the dozens of veteran free agents still looking for new homes this offseason, there are currently three decorated players from the Nippon Professional Baseball ranks who are currently available to stateside clubs via the MLB posting system. First baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, pitcher Shun Yamaguchi, and second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi have already been posted this winter; a fourth player, outfielder Shogo Akiyama, is an international free agent. While none of these players promise, like countrymen Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish before them, to be franchise building blocks, each offers unique value to potential American suitors.

Looking for a lefty bat with pop? Tsutsugo is your man. Since 2014, the 6’0 slugger has blasted an average of 30.83 home runs per season while playing for the Yokohama BayStars, peaking with totals of 44 and 38 round-trippers in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The now-28-year-old couples that raw power with the patient approach modern clubs covet, recording a 15.1 percent walk rate over the last four seasons, while also doing a generally acceptable job of limiting strikeouts.

As for his defense? Well, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America recently said he’s “not a terrible fielder by any means, but he’s not a great one either”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player who has shuttled between first, third, and left field in a ten-year Nipponese career. Clubs may be wary of committing multiple years, a hefty guarantee, and a posting fee (more on that in a moment) for a player who may end up suited for DH duties.

How about teams in search of a veteran starting pitcher to slot into their rotation’s back end? 32-year-old righty Shun Yamaguchi throws a fastball that sits around 90 mph, with a forkball representing his primary breaking pitch. That surely doesn’t sound like the most glamorous mix of attributes, but what Yamaguchi can offer is a wealth of experience and a good deal of forward momentum. Despite having pitched over 1000 innings stretching between the bullpen and the rotation in an NPB career dating back to 2006, Yamaguchi may have found another gear in 2019.

In addition to posting a 2.91 ERA over 26 starts, his 10.0 K/9 and 3.13 K/BB ratios last season marked personal bests as a starter. This offseason has already been slightly unpredictable when it comes to starting pitching, with Jake Odorizzi foregoing the open market and an inconsistent Kyle Gibson garnering a three-year, $30MM deal from the Rangers. For teams leery of even approaching the market’s top trifecta of starting arms, Yamaguchi, though likely not a world-beater, could represent an appealing value play.

Then there’s the slick-fielding Ryosuke Kikuchi. For teams in need of second base help and defensive improvement in the infield–and there are a few teams who fit within that category–Kikuchi may be a perfect match. The 29-year-old has won every Golden Glove at the keystone in the NPB’s Central League since 2013. While his defensive excellence seems to be universally upheld, there are some persistent questions as to how the bat will travel. Since debuting with the Hiroshima Carp in 2012, the righty swinger has logged a cumulative .271/.315/.391 line across a rather healthy sample of 4695 plate appearances.

Kikuchi’s .261/.313/.406 slash from last year would look acceptable in the majors from a defensively adept second baseman, but such production in the offensively friendly Japanese ranks may give some MLB front offices reason to pause; those that remember the trials of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Munenori Kawasaki, two other former Golden Glove NPB infielders who proved unable to adapt to MLB pitching, may simply stay away altogether.

Big league teams interested in any of these players will have to pay their parent clubs posting fees proportional to the size of the player’s contract: 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed; 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of every dollar over $50MM. That release fee is separate from the guarantee itself (for instance, a $25MM guarantee for one of these players would result in an additional $5MM posting fee, bringing the MLB club’s total expense to $30MM).

Performance incentives and contract options will trigger a supplemental 15 percent release fee once unlocked. For a minor league deal, an MLB club will be required to give a parent club 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s MLB salary will be subject to a supplemental posting fee if he is added to the club’s 25-man roster.

Shogo Akiyama probably represents the most well-rounded player expected to make the leap this offseason, and he was the only expected NPB import from this offseason to land within our Top 50 MLB Free Agent list. Considered a true center fielder and leadoff man by most, Akiyama set the NPB single-season record for hits (216) in the 2015 season. He’s won six Golden Gloves in his home country, hit 69 home runs over his last three seasons with the Seibu Lions, and holds a 10.8 percent walk rate since 2016. Two problems: Akiyama will be 32 next April, a rather advanced age for an up-the-middle player, and he suffered a broken bone in his foot during an exhibition on Oct 31 and will need to show he is healthy in order to sign with an MLB team.

There’s certainly a chance some of these players may not come stateside this offseason, but each seems to represent a coveted potential asset in their own right. This year’s free agent market is generally slim pickings when it comes to center fielders, so Akiyama’s availability, in particular, is probably a welcome development for a number of clubs; better yet, he is free to sign a new deal with any club without being subject to the posting system and its concomitant fees.

Still, it’s fair to wonder if he can truly be considered the most viable play here.  Tsutsugo offers immense immense power and relative youth, while there seems to be a fair number of clubs circling starting pitching options like Yamaguchi this offseason.

Which one do you believe is likely to receive the healthiest contract guarantee this winter? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Best November Transaction

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As we approach the winter meetings, most of the offseason action remains ahead of us, starting with Monday’s non-tender deadline. There has been some early movement, however, as two free agents signed their qualifying offers, we got an early need-for-need challenge trade, and 9 of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents have already left the board.

The splashiest signing of November was the White Sox snagging of Yasmani Grandal on a four-year, $73MM deal. MLBTR readers largely approved of the deal in this poll from Connor Byrne. The Southsiders also locked up their long-time lineup fulcrum in Cuban first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu. After he accepted the qualifying offer, GM Rick Hahn committed two more years to 2019’s AL RBI leader.

The Braves win November’s volume award, moving early on many fronts. They returned vets like Darren O’Day, Chris Martin, and Nick Markakis, solidified Tyler Flowers and Travis d’Arnaud as their catching tandem, and brought in the top bullpen arm on the market in lefty Will Smith.

The Padres also came to play this winter, signing Drew Pomeranz to a lengthy four-year contract. Pomeranz impressed in a 26-game stint in Milwaukee, and he’ll now pair with Kirby Yates at the back end of San Diego’s bullpen. The Rangers, meanwhile, turned three-year, $30MM rotation arms into a tradition when they signed former Twin Kyle Gibson.

Lest we forget, November also gifted us with an always-exciting pre-debut extension when the Mariners inked first baseman Evan White to a six-year, $24MM pact despite finishing 2019 in Double-A. On the flip side, we lost some players from the pool through the overseas departures of former major leaguers Gerardo “Baby Shark” Parra, Justin Bour, Tyler Austin, Mike Wright and Aaron Altherr.

November also gave us the rare controversial waiver placement. 28-year-old Jonathan Villar appeared in every game for the Orioles in 2019, putting up 4.0 bWAR with a .274/.339/.453 line while moving capably between second and short. He is likely due a somewhat heady $10.4MM through arbitration, but given Baltimore’s lack of financial commitments, stated desire for a veteran shortstop, and general need for talent of all shapes and sizes, it’s somewhat surprising to see them make Villar available for common claim.

As for the rest of the market, the Cards saved us the trauma of seeing Adam Wainwright in a non-Cardinals jersey, the Nats brought back Patrick Corbin’s personal catcher Yan Gomes on an affordable two-year deal, the Mariners plucked a low-cost rotation flyer off the pile in Kendall Graveman, the Diamondbacks gave Carson Kelly a veteran partner behind the plate in Stephen Vogt, and a few vets conceded early to minor league deals: Ryan Goins (A’s), Blaine Hardy (Twins), Josh Harrison (Phillies), A.J. Cole (Blue Jays).

The rumors continue to swirl, and though there’s still more than 12 hours left in the month, it’s a good time to see what y’all think was the best move made in November.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Kyle Gibson Deal

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Wednesday’s reported agreement between Kyle Gibson and the Rangers to a three-year, $30MM deal will likely not go down as the most impactful free agent deal signed by a starting pitcher this offseason. Due to an assortment of early-career injuries, Gibson reached free agency relatively late, at 32 years of age, with the additional misfortune of doing so in the shadow of names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler. While Gibson might not represent the flashiest name to find a new uniform this winter, his Texas signing represented part of an apparently ongoing talent acquisition strategy in Arlington.

As noted by our own Jeff Todd and Steve Adams, Gibson’s deal fit the mold of the organization’s recent signings of pitchers like Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. Those deals have worked out swimmingly for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, with Minor and Lynn fronting a 2019 staff that helped lead Texas to a surprisingly solid 78-84 finish in 2019. Minor’s own spotty track record of health allowed Daniels to secure his services for a three-year, $28MM commitment prior to 2018; Lynn, fresh off of a disappointing 2018 following several years of solid performance, inked a three-year, $30MM accord with Texas prior to last season. In 2019, those economical signings provided Texas with a combined 418.2 innings of 3.63 ERA pitching.

Not one of these pitchers could be called a true reclamation project. Like Lynn and Minor, Gibson comes to the Dallas area with a few warts on his health report, some inconsistencies in performance, and a few flaws in his statistical profile; he also arrives with a fairly solid body of cumulative work and a few reasons to believe his best pitching may be yet ahead of him. While his early career Tommy John procedure goes a long way toward explaining his late entry to the free agency portal, Gibson’s made 25 or more starts in every season since 2014. Not every campaign has been brilliant, with an ERA exceeding 5.00 between 2016 and 2017, but the big righty was a sub-4.00 ERA starter in 2015 and 2018, while this past season saw him record career bests in K/9 and K/BB ratios (due, perhaps, to some measurable improvements in his repertoire). The Mizzou product won’t be confused with an ace, but he’s accumulated 5.2 fWAR over the past two seasons and could be called the archetype of a “back-of-the-rotation” arm. Meanwhile, Texas will roll out Gibson, Minor, and Lynn for a combined annual commitment of roughly $31MM next season–perhaps less than it will cost an acquiring team for one yearly serving of Cole.

Detractors of the deal, however, will point to a serving of Cole as having been an entirely realistic holiday season wish. After showing a willingness to sport a $160MM-plus Opening Day payroll in 2017, Texas ownership has since pared down OD payrolls bit-by-bit; 2020’s opening payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, is projected to fall at roughly $110MM as presently constructed. The Rangers, as you may have heard, are moving into a new ballpark in 2020, raising fanbase expectations in regard to on-field product. And as for that new stadium? Daniels will have to hope that Gibson can keep the ball within its confines, as the hurler’s 20.4% HR/FB rate from last season does not bode well for a pitcher performing in the dry Texas heat. If Gibson performs the way Minor and Lynn have as Rangers, this deal will look like another reasonable move in a market where reason can oftentimes lose out; if his struggles with the long ball lead to another up-and-down season, fans will likely wonder why the club didn’t aim higher in its search for starting pitching.

In your opinion, is the Gibson signing a shrewd continuation of a tried-and-true Texas trend or an underwhelming half-measure in light of 2020 expectations? (Poll link for app users)


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