Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Polls

MLBTR Poll: What Changed For The Nats?

By | at

We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.

But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.

That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.

Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.

It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.

I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Executives Under Pressure

By | at

Major League Baseball’s regular season concluded two weeks ago, though no front offices have experienced significant shakeups since then. The Red Sox shockingly fired president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in early September, less than a year after the roster he helped assemble won 108 regular-season games and a World Series title, but no other team has made a change since then. With the offseason just a few weeks from commencing, it’s doubtful any club will join Boston in seeking a new head of baseball ops prior to the winter.

While almost all front offices look stable right now, the story could be totally different a year from now. We’ve seen mass departures in the dugout in recent weeks, and several clubs may end up in position to ax their top front office minds in roughly 12 months. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post observed over the weekend, at least 10 teams could wind up seeking new front office heads by 2021 if things go haywire next season.

Going by Sherman’s list, the Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Rockies, White Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Phillies each have executives who could be in do-or-die positions next year. It would be especially earth-shaking to see the Cubs make a switch, as president of baseball ops Theo Epstein has largely delivered wonderful results since he exited Boston for Chicago prior to the 2012 campaign. Of course, manager Joe Maddon also did mostly brilliant work for the Cubs from 2015-19, but that didn’t prevent them from going in another direction after this year’s so-so 84-win showing. With that in mind, perhaps Epstein will meet a similar fate if the Cubs don’t rebound in 2020.

Aside from the Cubs, every team Sherman mentioned has been embroiled in a multiyear playoff drought. With the possible exception of the Mariners, whose owner, John Stanton, seems to be exercising patience with GM Jerry Dipoto, all of them could conceivably hire new front office leaders within a year. The Rangers’ Jon Daniels, the Mets’ Brodie Van Wagenen, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’s Rick Hahn, the Pirates’ Neal Huntington, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Angels’ Billy Eppler and the Phillies’ Matt Klentak do indeed seem especially vulnerable going into 2020. The same could apply to Reds president Dick Williams and-or GM Nick Krall if the team doesn’t make a leap up the standings after what it hopes will be an active offseason. The Marlins are so devoid of talent that they have almost no chance to compete in 2020, which could finally cost president Michael Hill his job (bear in mind co-owner Derek Jeter inherited Hill; he didn’t hire him).

There could also be other execs in trouble by next offseason, though the Dodgers (to some of their fans’ chagrin) look as if they’re on the cusp of locking up pending free-agent president Andrew Friedman after another year loaded with regular-season wins but lacking a World Series title. The Blue Jays could extend oft-maligned president Mark Shapiro, meanwhile, and the Twins might award chief baseball officer Derek Falvey a new pact in the wake of an eminently successful campaign.

The above bunch aside, it’s fair to guess the Astros, Yankees, Athletics, Rays, Indians, Royals, Orioles, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers and Diamondbacks are perfectly happy with their front office alignments. Near-term changes likely aren’t in the offing for any of those clubs, then, but what of the rest?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Yasmani Grandal’s Next Contract

By | at

For the second straight offseason, Yasmani Grandal is scheduled to reach free agency as the undisputed No. 1 catcher available. Grandal got to the open market last winter after a strong multiyear run with the Dodgers, but he’ll return there this offseason on the heels of a quality campaign with the Brewers, who look likely to lose him.

The fact that Grandal even ended up in Milwaukee in the first place came as a surprise. Expectations were he’d emerge from his previous trip to free agency with a long-term, high-paying contract, but that didn’t materialize. There was at least one opportunity for Grandal to score that type of pact, as he reportedly turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets weeks before settling for far less.

The small-market Brewers capitalized on Grandal’s decision to reject New York, not to mention a lack of offers he deemed suitable from other clubs, by reeling him in on a one-year, $18.25MM guaranteee in January. The switch-hitting Grandal paid the Brew Crew back with a .246/.380/.468 batting line, a career-high 28 home runs and 5.2 fWAR in 632 plate appearances during another playoff-bound season for the team. Grandal performed well behind the plate at the same time, thus continuing a long run as one of the most well-rounded backstops in baseball.

The Brewers could technically control Grandal for another season, as the two sides have a $16MM mutual option (or a $2.25MM buyout) for 2020. Exercising it should be a no-brainer for Milwaukee, but rejecting it ought to be an easy call for Grandal. He has now put up five straight elite seasons, after all, and no longer has to worry about a qualifying offer weighing him down. The Dodgers hit Grandal with a QO a year ago, and because a player can’t receive it more than once, he’s in line for an unfettered free-agent run this time around. Not only that, but the 31-year-old Grandal won’t face much competition on the open market. It’s obvious the next best unsigned catchers – Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos – aren’t in his stratosphere.

Adding everything up, Grandal may be in ideal position this offseason to secure the type of payday he desired last year. Do you expect the two-time All-Star to outdo the $60MM he reportedly turned down back then?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Most Desirable Managerial Opening?

By | at

The Phillies fired Gabe Kapler on Thursday, leaving them as one of eight major league teams searching for a manager at the moment. Fellow National League clubs in the Padres, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Cubs are in the same position, while the Royals and Angels are seeking new skippers in the AL. The question is: Which team has the most desirable job?

For starters, we can probably rule out the Pirates and Royals. Both teams have been hamstrung by low payrolls, with notoriously penny-pinching ownership holding back Pittsburgh and Kansas City (a team whose ownership is in transition) coming off its second 100-loss season in a row. Neither team looks as if it’ll contend in the immediate future, and the same may apply to the Giants, though they are a club with big-spending capabilities and promising president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi at the helm. On the other hand, the rest of the league’s manager-needy organizations look to have decent odds of pushing for relevance sooner than later.

The Phillies just wrapped up their eighth consecutive non-playoff season, but with 81 wins, they weren’t exactly a basement dweller. Kapler’s successor will be taking over a team with big-time talent on hand (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola, to name a few) and the spending power to amply address its most obvious weaknesses this offseason.

Like the Phillies, the Padres have been suffering for too long. They’re fresh off their 13th straight year without a playoff berth, but they’re another team with front-line talent (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Chris Paddack). Moreover, the Padres remain loaded on the farm, and owner Ron Fowler has made it clear it’s time to start winning in 2020.

The Mets also have no shortage of top-line players, including ace Jacob deGrom and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. However, their managerial position is probably the most pressure-packed of all the openings. Previous skipper Mickey Callaway oversaw an 86-win team in 2019, but he dealt with scrutiny from the media, fans and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen from start to finish.

There’s also high expectations in Chicago, where even an exemplary record over five years wasn’t enough to keep Joe Maddon employed. The Cubs and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein gave Maddon the boot even though he helped them break a 108-year World Series drought in 2016 and led them to an overall 471-339 regular-season record with four playoff berths during his reign. But the Cubs, another financially well-off club with enviable high-end talent (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Hendricks, for example), saw enough of Maddon after a late-season collapse and a non-playoff showing in 2019. Maddon’s replacement will be inheriting an 84-win team that will have playoff expectations for next year.

The Angels, who seem like the favorites to land Maddon next, are another franchise with a sense of urgency to win in 2020. Despite the presence of the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, they haven’t gone to the playoffs since 2014. The Halos haven’t even won a playoff game since October 2009, just a few months after drafting Trout.  With fourth-year general manager Billy Eppler set to enter the last season of his contract in 2020, it’s imperative for him to get this hire right (his previous selection of Brad Ausmus didn’t work out). Otherwise, he and the Angels’ next manager could be out a year from now.

That’s a basic overview of where the sport’s manager-less teams stand heading into the offseason. There are more factors you could consider, of course. Which job looks the most appealing to you?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Astros-Rays Game 5

By | at

Last night’s contests delivered high drama — one at the very outset, the other at the end. That left three of the four championship series spots claimed, with the Nationals joining the Cardinals in the NLCS and the Yankees already ticketed for the ALCS. But who’ll square off against New York’s savages? That’ll be decided tonight.

The pressure is on the Astros, who have already squandered two opportunities to clinch the series. Two of Houston’s three exceptional starters failed to close it out, so they’ll hand the ball to the final member of the trio. Gerrit Cole doesn’t have the Hall of Fame resume that his teammates do — yet, at least — but he’s at top form and is arguably the best of the group right now. The Rays have only scored runs in bunches once in this series, but their pesky and balanced group of hitters will try to scratch out some runs against the dominant Cole. If he had a soft spot this year, it was — like so many others — in the long ball department. Cole allowed 1.23 per nine on a 16.9% HR/FB rate during the regular season. Houston skipper A.J. Hinch may ultimately face some nervy decisions late in this game, but he’ll surely ride Cole as long as possible.

Tampa Bay counters with pure power of its own in the form of Tyler Glasnow. While he hasn’t come close to Cole, his former Pirates teammate, in overall output over the past two seasons, Glasnow has the ability to dominate as well. He’ll also have a chance to further extend his pitch count after throwing 76 pitches and lasting 4 1/3 frames in the first game of this series. That’s just the first step of the Rays’ strategy, which is sure to involve a parade of relievers once Glasnow exits. The club pushed several of its best arms hard in game four, but an intervening rest day should leave plenty of options at the disposal of manager Kevin Cash. He and the staff will be trying to navigate an almost laughably talented Houston run-production machine.

It’s hard not to like the battle-tested, star-studded Astros at home with Cole on the mound, but the Rays have already proven they won’t back down. Who do you think will take it tonight and book a date with the Yanks?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’s Going To The NLCS?

By | at

If you like baseball (you’re reading this, so you probably do), Wednesday evening already looks rather promising. All four of the National League’s remaining playoff teams will square off then in win-or-go-home contests to conclude their thrilling NLDS matchups. The top-seeded Dodgers will take on the Nationals in Los Angeles, while the Braves will host the Cardinals.

To many, a third straight pennant for the perennially dominant Dodgers looked like a foregone conclusion entering the playoffs. But the 106-win club has had its hands full with the Nationals, a 93-69 team that needed a miraculous comeback over the Brewers in the wild-card game just to reach the NLDS. The Dodgers have led this series twice (1-0 and 2-1), but they’ve been unable to stamp out the Nationals, thanks in part to the heroics of Washington co-aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The latter’s slated to take the ball in Game 5 against Walker Buehler, who has supplanted Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw as LA’s most valuable starter. Buehler put forth his latest ace-caliber effort in the Dodgers’ Game 1 win last Thursday, when he fired six scoreless, one-hit innings.

In Atlanta, the Braves will send Mike Foltynewicz to the mound to battle Jack Flaherty, who – like Buehler – has burst on the scene as an elite young arm. Foltynewicz entered the season as one of the Braves’ clear-cut top starters, though it nonetheless may seem hard to believe they’re turning to him with their season on the line. After all, the team did demote the 28-year-old to the minors in late June on the heels of a horrid few months. To his credit, however, Foltynewicz has rebounded since his early August return, and he continued to roll with seven shutout innings during a Game 2 victory over the Flaherty-led Cards. He’ll again contend with a St. Louis offense that has gotten exceptional production from Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna in the series.

The 23-year-old Flaherty will deal with an Atlanta club that has seen outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. continue to stake his claim as one of the sport’s up-and-coming superstars in October. Runs may be hard to come by for Acuna & Co., though, as Flaherty hasn’t yielded more than three in a start since July 2. Dating back to then, Flaherty has given up a ridiculously low 14 earned runs in 113 1/3 innings and 17 starts.

Of course, it would be foolish to only mention the starters who are lined up for these two games. With all four clubs’ seasons on the line, they’ll likely be in all-hands-on-deck mode (or something close to it) as they attempt to reach the final round of the NL playoffs. As is often the case in the postseason, the teams’ bullpens will probably play integral roles in the outcomes. Which clubs do you expect to advance Wednesday?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

Cole Vs. Rendon: Who Will Sign The Bigger Contract?

By | at

A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.

It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.

Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.

Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.

Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.

Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.

It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will Stephen Strasburg Opt Out?

By | at

Three games into the Washington Nationals 2019 postseason and Stephen Strasburg has already played the part of hero twice. In the other game, the Nats lost. Last night’s mastery spun 6 innings of 3-hit ball with 10 strikeouts to zero walks as he took the win at Dodger Stadium. His brilliance in the 2017 NLDS against the Cubs is largely forgotten since they didn’t advance, but it does add to the mounting pile of evidence suggesting Strasburg is indeed one of the game’s best big game pitchers.

Strasburg has a decision looming whenever the magic of the Nationals 2019 postseason runs dry. He has an opt-out clause in his contract that he could exercise to become a free agent this winter. Given the depressed market of recent offseasons, the possibility that Stras would opt-out seemed far-fetched not too long ago. That’s no longer the case. After completing perhaps the healthiest season of his career, one in which he could finish as high as second in Cy Young voting, one in which he registered league-leading marks in wins (18) and innings (209), as well as notching a career-high 251 strikeouts, Strasburg’s opt-out is more certain now than ever.

His agent, Scott Boras, is sure to make that pitch, though he has thus far refrained from speaking specifically about Strasburg’s intentions. He is, however, laying the groundwork for potential free agency by declaring stud starters such as Strasburg immune to any downturns in the market, per Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. With four-years and $100MM remaining on his contract already, he won’t exactly be hard-up for cash either way. Strasburg, 31, is also the rarest of Boras client – one who signed before reaching the open market.

If he doesn’t opt-out, his deal would expire after his 35th birthday. Strasburg could view this winter as his last opportunity to lock-in a major payday for his elder years. Zack Greinke signed his six-year, $206.5MM deal at a similar point in his career – after a career season in which he turned 31-years-old and finished second in Cy Young voting. In raw totals, Greinke’s 9.1 bWAR 2015 with the Dodgers eclipses Strasburg’s 6.3 bWAR 2019 by a decent margin, and Greinke’s overall track record was a tad more impressive at the time. He had been worth 48.9 bWAR to that point in his career versus 32.6 bWAR for Strasburg now. Even if you attribute the difference largely to durability (323 GS, 2094 2/3 innings for Greinke post-2015, 239 GS, 1438 2/3 innings for Strasburg post-2019), that’s hardly an insignificant attribution in contract negotiation.

A similar contract would more than double Strasburg’s guaranteed money while only tacking on two additional years. From the team perspective, it’s hard to fault the Diamondbacks for the deal now, as despite the whopping gross total, Greinke did deliver 16.4 bWAR across 3+ seasons, a playoff appearance, utility player Josh Rojas and their #4, #11 and #12 prospects as ranked by MLB.com.

Jake Arrieta signed a free agent contract when the Phillies inked him to a 3-year, $75MM deal the same week he turned 32. Arrieta had an even more uneven history than Strasburg, with 20.2 bWAR earned at the point of his free agency and a chasm of difference between the glory years in Chicago and his humble beginnings in Baltimore. This also feels less comparable to Strasburg as – despite being close to the same age at the time of free agency – Arrieta appeared headed for the downswing of his career. Strasburg is just now coming into his own, as written about here by Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.

That same offseason, Yu Darvish signed his 6-year, $126MM deal with the Cubs in the winter of his 31st year. Darvish was coming off a 4.0 bWAR season split between Texas and Los Angeles, though a pair of disastrous World Series outings certainly colored the narrative of his free agency.

Regardless, Strasburg, Scott Boras, and the Nationals will have a lot to talk about this winter. If Strasburg can further grow his October legend, Boras may be right about his value transcending that of the market. Not to mention, Strasburg’s hometown of San Diego has a team on the rise, money to spend, and a gigantic ballpark with which to lure Strasburg home. In terms of competition, he’d be the clear-cut second-best starting pitching option on the free agent market after Gerrit Cole. You tell me: what comes next in the Strasburg saga?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Edwin Encarnacion’s Option

By | at

The Yankees continued their long-running October dominance of the Twins on Friday, earning a 10-4 victory en route to a 1-0 advantage in the teams’ American League Division Series matchup. Designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion factored into the Yankees’ blowout win, collecting two doubles and a run batted in across five at-bats. The accomplished Encarnacion obviously hopes to pick up his first World Series ring in the next few weeks, but no matter how the team’s season ends, the Yankees will soon face an interesting decision in regards to his future.

Encarnacion, whom the Yankees stunningly acquired from the Mariners back in June, slashed .249/.325/.531 with 13 home runs in 197 plate appearances after donning the pinstripes. Between the two teams, the 36-year-old concluded his regular season with a .244/.344/.531 line and 34 HRs over 456 trips to the plate. It’s all the more laudable that Encarnacion smacked 30-plus homers for the eighth straight year despite missing extended time with injuries (a fractured wrist and a strained oblique).

Youth isn’t on his side, but it’s clear Encarnacion is still a formidable presence at the plate. Nevertheless, he’s far from a lock to remain with the Yankees in 2020. They do control Encarnacion through next season, though retaining him would be costly. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman will have to choose whether to exercise Encarnacion’s $20MM club option or buy him out for $5MM. For all we know, Encarnacion will go on a postseason rampage in the next few weeks, but that doesn’t mean it’ll influence Cashman’s thinking. He did, after all, allow aging stars Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon to walk in free agency after the franchise’s most recent World Series title in 2009. Even Matsui’s MVP honors in the Fall Classic weren’t enough for the Yankees to re-sign him.

New York certainly has the financial might to keep Encarnacion around, but it also possesses several in-house options who could fill the DH role in a year. First basemen Luke Voit and Mike Ford figure to stay in the fold at league-minimum sums, while anyone in the Yankees’ outfield surplus could also see a fair amount of time at the spot. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks seem likely to return as the club’s top three outfielders in 2020, but Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman might also figure prominently into its plans. And the Yankees may choose to re-sign pending free agent Brett Gardner, quietly one of the most productive outfielders in franchise history, to remain a member of a crowded alignment in the grass.

Beyond the Yankees’ group of outfielders, let’s not forget about the presence of third baseman Miguel Andujar, who may be best served as a DH. Andujar thrived at the plate as a rookie in 2018 before missing almost all of this season because of a shoulder injury, but he was often maligned for his defense at the hot corner last year. With the emergence of low-cost replacement Gio Urshela at third this season, the Yankees could envision plenty of DH at-bats for Andujar in 2020.

Aside from Judge and Stanton, nobody from the abovementioned collection of names packs the punch Encarnacion does. However, the Yankees wouldn’t be unrealistic in expecting quality offensive production from any of them, and letting Encarnacion go would open up spending room elsewhere (Astros co-ace/potential $200MM free agent Gerrit Cole looks like a fit on paper, for example). As of now, what do you expect to happen with Encarnacion in the offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Julio Teheran’s Option

By | at

The Braves are currently licking their wounds after collapsing in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup against the Cardinals on Thursday. Before the series began, Atlanta made the decision to leave right-hander Julio Teheran off its roster in order to deepen its bench. It wasn’t long ago that keeping Teheran out of a playoff series would have been unthinkable for the Braves, as he was once among the crown jewels of the franchise. In fact, during his first two full seasons (2013-14), Teheran notched 63 starts and 406 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA/3.58 FIP ball with 7.88 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Prior to the second of those seasons, the Braves locked up Teheran to an extension worth a guaranteed $32.4MM over six years. At the time, it was the second-largest pact given to a pitcher with just two years’ service time.

Now 28, Teheran has hung with the Braves through the entirety of his deal, though he hasn’t been able to deliver the results he did during his early career coming-out party. Now, it’s possible he’s just about at the end of the line as a Brave. After the season concludes, the Braves will have a call to make on whether to exercise the $12MM club option for 2020 that they included in Teheran’s contract. They could pick it up with the goal of retaining Teheran, exercise it and try to trade him or decline it in favor of a $1MM buyout.

A one-year, $12MM gamble on Teheran wouldn’t look wholly unappealing for the Braves or anyone else. In Atlanta’s case, the club will head into the offseason with only Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz looking sure to return from this year’s staff (Game 1 NLDS starter Dallas Keuchel is a pending free agent). The team could also explore free agency and trades for other possible solutions and-or turn to young arms like Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller sometime in 2020. That foursome has little to no major league experience under its belt, though. Wright and Wilson have struggled over a small sample of MLB innings, while Anderson and Muller have not debuted yet.

If nothing else, Teheran has shown a consistent ability to eat innings. He’s fresh off his seventh consecutive regular season of 30-plus starts. Moreover, in 2019, Teheran continued an annual trend of yielding a low batting average on balls in play (.266), recording a solid home run-to-fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and outproducing his fielding-independent numbers. Across a team-high 174 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.81 ERA despite a far less appealing 4.66 FIP, 5.26 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. While Teheran added a career-high 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings, he also turned in his second-largest walk rate (4.28 BB/9), once again induced few ground balls (39 percent), logged an all-time low swinging-strike percentage (9.2) and averaged a personal-worst 89.7 mph on his four-seam fastball – the pitch he relies on most.

Teheran clearly has his flaws, but that doesn’t mean the Braves will move on from him. It also doesn’t mean he’ll wind up making zero contributions this postseason (he could get back on their roster immediately as a result of Chris Martin’s oblique injury). Atlanta obviously has greater priorities right now than worrying about Teheran’s future, but once the Braves’ season ends, what do you think they’ll do with him?

(Poll link for app users)

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top