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MLBTR Poll: Grading Miami’s Corey Dickerson Signing

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The Marlins’ signing of outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year, $17.5MM deal will not go down as this offseason’s most surprising–in fact, his ultimate guarantee was right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $15MM pact back in November. In terms of context, the deal also sits snugly alongside Kole Calhoun’s signature on a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona earlier this month.

Dickerson might be called the ideal of a solid regular. He’s not an elite defender, his 2018 Gold Glove notwithstanding, but his facility with the stick has made him a must-start during stints with the Rockies, Rays, Pirates and Phillies since breaking into the league 2013. The thirty-year-old owns a .286/.328/.504 slash line with 115 home runs in nearly 800 career games, with a 117 wRC+ suggesting he’s been nearly 20 percent better than an average hitter since 2013. By the latter metric, he’s performed comparably with players like Starling Marte (117 wRC+) and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+) over that span.

Dickerson has recorded 2.6 fWAR or better in three separate seasons as a full-timer, despite nagging injuries throughout his career; if he can perform to those levels for the Fish, there should be a lot of excess value in this deal. Of course, Dickerson may not spend his entire tenure with Miami, as the limited term of this deal might make him an attractive trade target at the ’20 and ’21 deadlines, assuming his continued health and Miami’s continuation in a textbook rebuild pattern (perhaps not a safe assumption considering Miami’s similarly savvy Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar pickups this winter).

Dickerson’s signing does also carry a few implications beyond just shoring up Miami’s corner outfield, as his relatively light commitment is further evidence that the ever-heightening AAV peaks achieved by premium performers in recent winters have yet to trickle down in the form of substantive raises for middle-class players. Moreover, Dickerson’s relative merits when pitted against free agents Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos may cast some doubt on the ability of those players to secure truly hefty guarantees before camp breaks.

Regardless, Miami’s signing of Dickerson reads like the move of a team inching its way out of a rebuild by committing a reasonable amount of money to a relatively stable, if imperfect, player in his prime; the club may yet have a few more losing years ahead, but it’s hard to accuse a team of “tanking” when they add players of his caliber.

Let’s open the floor: how do you grade Miami’s Dickerson addition? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Angels?

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Coming off their fifth straight non-playoff season and their fourth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Angels were expected to be one of the majors’ most active teams this winter. They haven’t disappointed.

Not only did the Angels sign free agency’s No. 1 position player – former Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon – to a seven-year, $245MM contract, but they’ve also strengthened their much-maligned starting rotation. Granted, the Angels’ acquisitions of ex-Oriole Dylan Bundy and former Brave Julio Teheran haven’t bowled anyone over, but at least the two of them have shown themselves to be durable, major league-caliber starters in recent years. That’s more than can be said for the majority of starters the Angels have run out over the past couple seasons.

With Rendon in the mix, an Angels position player group that finished 2019 middle of the pack in fWAR (16th) and runs scored (17th) suddenly looks imposing. Rendon and three-time AL MVP-winning center fielder Mike Trout could be the best one-two punch in baseball. Beyond them, there’s shortstop Andrelton Simmons, designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, left fielder Justin Upton and second baseman David Fletcher. Brian Goodwin’s the team’s starting right fielder for the moment, but his days at the top could be numbered with super-prospect Jo Adell not far from making an impact in the bigs.

While the Angels clearly have a legitimate offensive core, there are concerns, namely at catcher – which they need to address before the offseason’s out – as well as at first base. Unfortunately for the Angels, they could be stuck with a deteriorating Albert Pujols (he of the bloated $29MM salary) playing a key first base role.

Meanwhile, even with Bundy and Teheran in the mix, the Angels’ rotation still appears to need work. Neither one of those right-handers is a world-beater. Ohtani, a fellow righty, has front-end ability, but he only threw about 50 innings in 2018 before Tommy John surgery kept him off a mound last season. Like Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval – although promising – haven’t really established themselves so far. Another problem for the Angels: They don’t seem likely to land a bona fide front-end type before the season, as Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler are gone from free agency, and nobody’s aggressively shopping a No. 1 or 2 starter via trade.

Elsewhere, there’s a case the Angels need to better their bullpen, which finished last season in mediocre territory. Aside from claiming righty Mike Mayers from the Cardinals last month, they haven’t done much to address that area. Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Noe Ramirez and Cam Bedrosian will all be back, however, and the Halos should get a full year from Keynan Middleton after he missed most of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It’s hard to argue that the Angels haven’t taken significant steps forward this offseason. Plus, the two front-runners in the AL West – the Astros and Athletics – have been pretty quiet since last season ended. That said, after going 72-90 and finishing 35 games back of the Astros and 25 behind the A’s in 2019, the Halos still look as if they have more ground to make up if they’re going to be any better than a third-place team in 2020. With $20-some million left in spending room before they reach the first level of the luxury tax, the Angels just might make another splash or two before the offseason’s out. Right now, though, how many games do you expect the Joe Maddon-led club to win next year?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The White Sox?

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With the holiday season in full swing, this has been a fairly quiet week around Major League Baseball. If you’re a White Sox fan who happens to read MLBTR, though, we’ve had plenty of items relating to your favorite team over the past couple days. There has been Chicago’s one-year, $12MM agreement with first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, its reported interest (or lack thereof) in free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig and Mark Polishuk’s piece on the extension candidacy of stud center field prospect Luis Robert.

Even before the White Sox committed to Encarnacion, the majority of voters MLBTR polled Tuesday declared they were having the best offseason of all AL teams that finished below .500 in 2019. The White Sox defeated the Angels, Blue Jays and Rangers – teams that are also enjoying impressive offseasons – for that honor. Before Encarnacion jumped aboard, the White Sox added catcher Yasmani Grandal and left-handers Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez in free agency, re-signed 1B/DH/franchise favorite Jose Abreu and acquired outfielder Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers.

Now, with the bulk of the White Sox’s winter work likely done, it’s worth asking how good this team looks on paper. Undoubtedly, Chicago had a high hill to climb coming into the offseason. The club was then fresh off a 72-victory campaign, its  11th in a row without a playoff berth and the seventh straight season in which it lost more games than it won. Maybe the White Sox aren’t quite playoff-caliber now, but considering the moves general manager Rick Hahn & Co. have made in the past month and a half, they should at least push the .500 mark next year.

With Encarnacion, Grandal, Abreu, Mazara, third baseman Yoan Moncada, shortstop/reigning AL batting champion Tim Anderson and left fielder Eloy Jimenez comprising the majority of their offense, the White Sox should be a bear to deal with for opposing pitchers. That’s without considering the forthcoming promotions of Robert and second base prospect Nick Madrigal, who could emerge as regulars in the early going next season.

Likewise, there’s no shortage of promise in Chicago’s rotation. If all goes according to plan, Keuchel and Gonzalez will act as sturdy veterans, Lucas Giolito will continue blossoming into one of the game’s premier starters, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease will quickly realize their vast promise, and Carlos Rodon will return to form after Tommy John surgery. Odds are that everything won’t go right, but that’s still a lot of talent crammed into one starting staff.

If there’s one area Chicago hasn’t really addressed this winter, it’s the team’s bullpen. The White Sox did claim flamethrowing righty Tayron Guerrero off waivers from the Marlins, but they’re otherwise in line to return a familiar cast of characters at the end of games. That isn’t quite cause for panic, though, as their Aaron Bummer-led relief corps largely earned middle-of-the-pack marks last season.

Although we still have several weeks before pitchers and catchers report, this already looks like a much-improved White Sox roster. In an AL Central division with multiple teams in full rebuilds (the Royals and Tigers) and two quality clubs that could take steps back (the Twins and Indians), perhaps Chicago can break through as one of the majors’ surprise playoff contenders in 2020. What do you think?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Should The D-Backs Trade Robbie Ray?

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Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen has splashed far more cash in free agency this winter than in his prior offseasons at the helm. Most notably, he pulled off a surprise strike for star hurler Madison Bumgarner, who’s now in town for a five-year term.

The addition of MadBum seemed to be spurred largely by the already legendary lefty’s own interest in playing in Arizona. While the team proved amenable to working out a mutually agreeable contract, it was in large part an opportunistic strike for an organization that had signaled satisfaction with its pitching depth when it non-tendered Taijuan Walker at the outset of the offseason.

So … what about the team’s preexisting star southpaw? Hazen has denied that the big new addition would push Robbie Ray out of the organization’s plans, but word was at the outset of the winter — i.e., before the Bumgarner pursuit even began — that the team was open to dealing Ray. With Ray set to earn a projected $10.8MM via arbitration before reaching the open market, the club could cash him in and re-distribute the salary to account for its recent additions or support further signings.

Perhaps it’s now a rather simple proposition: put Ray on the auction block and get what you can in trade value. The Snakes already added Mike Leake and Zac Gallen via trade in the summer. Merrill Kelly is a Leake-like sturdy presence while Luke Weaver will look to resume his impressive initial showing after resting and rehabbing. That makes five without Ray. And the D-Backs have a host of upper-level depth on the 40-man, including Jon Duplantier, Taylor Clarke, and Taylor Widener.

On the other hand … maybe now’s the time and this is the team to hang onto the upside-laden Ray. The southpaw has rare strikeout ability and is a rather affordable asset for a pitcher of his ability. Bumgarner’s deal features a notably light 2020 salary, perhaps leaving payroll space to fit both of these quality lefties. Keeping Ray would make the Arizona staff one of the better units in the National League. The D-Backs could deploy some of their extra arms in relief capacities, comforted by the extra depth. Or they might deal away a now-unnecessary starting piece, prioritizing near-term upside over pure cost-efficiency.

While the Dodgers still look like a strong favorite in the NL West, the L.A. org hasn’t yet converted on its bids to improve this winter and does have a few potential weak spots. If the Diamondbacks are to make a real bid at breaking the stranglehold on the division, keeping Ray in hopes he can perform to his ceiling would make an awful lot of sense. Even if the Dodgers respond to the pressure by acquiring a star-level player, that could redound to the long-term benefit of the Diamondbacks and other division pursuers.

As always, it depends in no small part upon the return that could actually be achieved. But in this case, perhaps, it’s more a question of organizational direction than the specifics of trade value. Picking up more prospect capital arguably isn’t as important to the D-Backs as maximizing their 2020 chances. And there’s always the fall-back option of a summer trade or qualifying offer at season’s end.

How do you think Hazen and co. should proceed? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: Which Sub-.500 AL Team’s Having The Best Offseason?

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The Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers and Angels each entered the winter amid multiyear playoff droughts and on the heels of sub-.500 showings in 2019. No one from that American League quartet has been a sorrier bunch for longer than the White Sox, owners of an 11-year postseason-less skid. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels have at least been relevant more recently than Chicago, but success has still escaped those other clubs for far too long. However, judging by the teams’ actions in the past weeks, they’ve had their fill of serving as doormats in their league. The offseason has gotten off to rollicking starts for all of these franchises, each of which has made more than one significant addition since the floodgates opened in November.

The Angels, they of the pitiful 72-90 record last season, finally look as if they’re in decent position to capitalize on all-world center fielder Mike Trout’s presence. They added the foremost position player on the market, third baseman Anthony Rendon, on a whopper of a contract worth $245MM over seven years. The rotation-needy Halos have also picked up a pair of starters in Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Neither will be confused for an ace, but they should give the team much-needed competent innings at reasonable prices near the back of its rotation. If you’re a glass-half-empty type, though, you may be unimpressed by the Angels’ lack of a front-line starter pickup (though the return of Shohei Ohtani from Tommy John surgery should be a major help) and/or that they haven’t addressed their problems at catcher yet.

The White Sox, also coming off a 72-win season, have been extremely busy in upgrading their lineup. Their offense produced the third-fewest runs in the AL, but that should change for the better in a year with the signing of star catcher Yasmani Grandal (four years, $73MM). The White Sox also helped their cause by retaining first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu (three years, $50MM), and they’re clinging to hope that 24-year-old outfielder Nomar Mazara (acquired from Texas) will start living up to his immense promise now that he has changed teams. Even with those three in tow, the White Sox might not be done yet on the offensive end. They’re reportedly at the forefront of the sweepstakes for Edwin Encarnacion, yet another slugging 1B/DH, and remain in the mix for outfielder Nicholas Castellanos – possibly the second-best position player left in free agency.

Of course, upgrading at the plate hasn’t been Chicago’s sole focus. The White Sox made a large splash on the pitching side last weekend when they agreed to sign former Cy Young-winning southpaw Dallas Keuchel for three years and $55.5MM. He followed the much more modestly priced Gio Gonzalez as the second accomplished lefty the team signed for its rotation. With those two, ace Lucas Giolito, the high-upside Reynaldo Lopez–Dylan Cease–Michael Kopech trio, and (once he returns from Tommy John surgery) Carlos Rodon, the club actually has plenty to look forward to with regards to its starting staff.

The same can be said for the Blue Jays and Rangers, who have each spent the majority of the offseason bettering their rotations. Toronto, a lowly 67-95 last season, just took a four-year, $80MM gamble on ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu. After offering elite production in his final year as a Dodger, Ryu’s in line to lead a Jays staff that will also consist of fellow new additions Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker (returning from a torn ACL) and perhaps some combination of ex-Japanese star Shun Yamaguchi (yet another just-signed hurler), Trent Thornton, Jacob Waguespack, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay and stud prospect Nate Pearson. Unlike late last season, after the Jays traded two vet starters (Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez) and their rotation was a barren wasteland, possibilities abound.

On the offensive side, the Jays replaced departed first baseman Justin Smoak (now a Brewer) with ex-Brewer Travis Shaw in the corner infield. It’s hard to see that as an upgrade on paper, though, after the woeful 2019 Shaw had. But for one year and $4MM, it’ll look brilliant if Shaw returns anywhere near the 3.0-WAR production he managed from 2017-18.

As for Texas, this offseason looks like a bit of a mixed bag. The Rangers have not added at third base or catcher, two positions that still look iffy, even though they partook in the Rendon derby and have also been part of Josh Donaldson’s market. On the other hand, their rotation looks far superior to the 2019 group that got very little outside of the Mike Minor–Lance Lynn duo and played a key role in a 78-84 finish. Those two are back, while two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (acquired from the Indians), Kyle Gibson (three years, $28MM) and Jordan Lyles (two years, $16MM) will round out the quintet. For the first time in a while, it’s fair to say the Rangers’ rotation looks strong one through five.

All of these clubs have been extraordinarily active as they seek ways to move past their longstanding struggles in 2020. In your opinion, though, which has enjoyed the best offseason so far?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Dallas Keuchel Deal

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Dallas Keuchel is the newest member of the White Sox, courtesy of a three-year, $55.5MM deal with a vesting option that could push the final value of the deal to 4/$74MM. At 31 years old, Keuchel can’t be called an upside play, nor is he likely, given recent performance, to repeat the kind of output that saw him earn a Cy Young award back in 2015. But, in committing multiple years and an $18.5MM AAV to the lefty, the White Sox seemed to, for the moment, answer an age-old question: just what is the value of “pretty good”, anyway?

For front offices in recent offseasons, “pretty good” has seemed to be a non-starter. When Keuchel was on the market just last winter, more than a few observers offered opinions on why the lefty struggled to find a long-term deal: there was the dip in velocity; the mid-3.00 FIPs; a resounding lack of strikeout oomph. Few argued that Keuchel was an incompetent pitcher, but words like “impact”, “upside”, and “premier” were not what one would have ascribed to him. A year later, debate will likely still follow his receipt of a deal that, if vested, will be within throwing distance of a $100MM.

Then again, if the case of Dallas Keuchel and his recent forays into the open market say anything, the commentary may be more about the current qualifying offer system than anything else. Sure, one could argue that the prorated, one-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Braves last year was of the “prove it” variety— a chance to show that downward trends in velocity and underlying metrics wouldn’t threaten his bottom-line results. But did Keuchel really prove that in 2019?

Across 112.2 innings with Atlanta, Keuchel basically pitched to career averages. His 3.72 ERA (3.67 career ERA), 7.27 K/9 (7.16 career K/9), and 60.1% GB rate (58.9% career GB rate) in 2019 were all in keeping with his broader body of work, if not slightly better. Meanwhile, he continued to show diminished velocity (88.3 mean mph in 2019) and his 4.72 FIP would tell you he was somewhat benefitted by the defense playing behind him in Atlanta—leaving some remaining question as to whether his performance is sustainable. Basically, Keuchel is the same guy who entered last offseason in search of a long-term deal—except one year older, and, perhaps more critically, free of a QO. For those inclined to criticize this deal as an overpay based on what the lefty received last offseason, it would pay to bear that in mind.

Within the context of this offseason, Keuchel checks in comfortably below what Madison Bumgarner received from Arizona. That five-year, $85MM was slightly lighter in terms of AAV, although that was likely a secondary consideration with respect to the opportunity to maximize guaranteed dollars—plus, we know Bumgarner was rather adamant about ending up in Arizona and may have left richer offers on the table. Meanwhile, it trumps what Kyle Gibson earned, and is miles above the one-year, $9MM guarantee that Julio Teheran—another player comfortably within the hall of pretty good—received from Los Angeles. This may not register as brilliant analysis, but, for the moment, Keuchel’s deal seems to occupy its own little window in the winter of 2019-2020.

For a relatively recent precedent, we might look, perhaps a bit ironically, to the four-year, $67.5MM contract Nathan Eovaldi drew from the Red Sox in the very same offseason that saw Keuchel left out in the cold. Eovaldi was likely able to earn that sum because of his relative youth, postseason performance, and, of course, premier amounts of impact/upside. Keuchel was lacking in a few of those departments last offseason, but, then again, he offered a few things Eovaldi did not: a broad track record of stability, numerous 30-start seasons, and a sinker-based repertoire that may prove more immune to season-over-season vagaries. He may lack Eovaldi’s horizon, but he offers a “pretty good” floor. That Keuchel should ultimately line up alongside Eovaldi in terms of AAV is perhaps a fitting commentary on his value.

So, what say you? Is this an overpay for veteran stability or a reasonable investment in the market’s mid-point? Just what is the value of pretty good, anyway? (Poll link for app users)


MLBTR Poll: Time For Indians To Trade Lindor, Clevinger?

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This has already been a winter of major change for the Indians. A couple months removed from their first non-playoff season since 2015, the Indians traded two-time American League Cy Young-winning right-hander Corey Kluber to the Rangers last weekend for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. Cleveland did pick up at least one intriguing piece in the 21-year-old, heat-throwing Clase, though it was also a cost-cutting move for the small-market club to get all of Kluber’s $17.5MM guarantee for 2020 off the books.

To the Indians’ credit, they did win 93 games in 2019 with little to no help from Kluber, who slumped through an uncharacteristically poor month before succumbing to a season-ending broken forearm May 1. So, maybe getting rid of Kluber in favor of a Shane Bieber–Mike Clevinger–Carlos Carrasco–Aaron Civale–Zach Plesac rotation won’t have a deleterious effect their fortunes. Maybe they remain well-equipped to compete next year in the AL Central, which has multiple bottom-feeding teams and has seen its reigning champion (Minnesota) make no clear improvements since the offseason got underway. Or maybe the Kluber trade was the first monumental deal the Indians will make in an effort to cut money and look toward the future.

For Cleveland, there’s no bigger decision than whether to trade four-time All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who has popped up in many rumors over the past few months. Lindor’s one of the finest players in the game – no doubt the Indians’ best – but it seems inevitable they’ll trade him in the next couple years. A free agent a pair of offseasons from now, Lindor’s projected to earn $16.7MM in arbitration for 2020. That’s unquestionably a reasonable sum for what he brings to the table and an amount all teams (including the Indians) should be able to afford, but perhaps they’ll sell Lindor off now before his control continues to dwindle. It’s at least under consideration, as they’ve reportedly asked interested teams (the Dodgers, Padres and Reds are among them) for their best and last offers heading into the weekend.

Other than Lindor, the Indians have at least one other extremely valuable trade chip in Clevinger. Set to turn 29 on Saturday, the righty has been one of baseball’s most effective starters since his 2017 breakout. Clevinger still has three years of control left (and should make less than $5MM next season), so he looks like someone the Indians should keep if the goal is to push for a World Series in the near term. However, there’s said to be plenty of trade interest in Clevinger, meaning it’s possible we’ve seen the last of him in an Indians uniform if another team bowls them over with a proposal that’s too enticing to decline. The Indians, for their part, have understandably placed a “crazy high” asking price on Clevinger, per reporter Robert Murray.

While we don’t know exactly what teams have offered (or will offer) for Lindor and Clevinger, it’s fair to say both players are capable of bringing back a haul in a trade. Therefore, it’s reasonable to wonder what the Indians should do with the two of them going forward. Should they retain one or both and try to return to the playoffs next season, or is it time for the franchise to sell high?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’s The Best Starter In Baseball?

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The Yankees officially introduced just-signed right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Wednesday. The club agreed last week to ink the former Pirate and Astro to a history-making nine-year, $324MM deal that ranks No. 1 all-time among pitchers in both length and contract value. Led by general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees pursued Cole on multiple occasions in the past, but they finally reeled him in 11 years after drafting (and failing to sign) the flamethrower in 2008. Now, the Yankees’ hope is that Cole will help deliver the franchise its first World Series title since 2009 next season and serve a key role in another Bronx dynasty.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday (via Dan Federico of Bronx to Bushville) that the team landed “arguably the game’s best pitcher” in the 29-year-old Cole. There’s certainly a case that Boone is correct, especially considering Cole struck out 326 batters and recorded a stingy 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP across 212 1/3 innings last season. At the same time, though, there are a few other starters who could hold the honor over Cole.

There may not be a stronger candidate than another New York hurler, Mets righty Jacob deGrom, who has won the past two NL Cy Young Awards. The 31-year-old owns an eye-popping 2.62 ERA/2.78 FIP with 10.25 K/9 against 2.17 BB/9 since he debuted in 2014. Fellow 2019 Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, Cole’s teammate in Houston each of the previous two seasons, has a case as well. So does the Nationals’ Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young recipient who turned in another fantastic (but injury-limited) showing this year.

Of course, beyond Cole, deGrom, Verlander and Scherzer, there are plenty of other outstanding starters you may prefer. At this point, though, it seems difficult to go outside that group to choose the preeminent starter in baseball. So, who’s your pick?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Corey Kluber Trade

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The extraordinarily fruitful Corey Kluber era just came to an end for Cleveland. The Indians decided over the weekend to trade the two-time American League Cy Young-winning right-hander to the Rangers for a package consisting of righty reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields.

At least on paper, the Rangers now have an extremely formidable rotation. Lance Lynn and Mike Minor were among the premier starters in the game last season, but the Rangers struggled to complement them with capable options. However, the team has since added three credible big league starters in Kluber and free-agent signings Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, and suddenly owns one of the best-looking staffs in the majors as a result.

To secure the 33-year-old Kluber, who will be expensive in 2020 ($17.5MM salary) and comes with an $18MM option or a $1MM buyout for 2021, the Rangers parted with at least one intriguing player in Clase. Just 21 years old, Clase made a brief major league debut in 2019 and proceeded to toss 23 1/3 innings of 2.31 ERA/3.43 FIP ball with 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 60.6 percent groundball rate. All of those numbers stand out, as does the 99.3 mph average fastball velocity Clase posted in the process.

Clase seems to have the makings of a dominant big leaguer, whereas the 27-year-old DeShields has mostly hovered around replacement-level value over the past couple seasons after making a solid debut in 2015. Nevertheless, the Indians are banking on the fleet-of-foot DeShields putting it all together in their uniform, as they’ll control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.

Beyond the Clase and DeShields acquisitions, the small-market Indians saved a substantial amount of money in getting rid of Kluber. The Indians opened last season with a payroll around $120MM, per Cot’s, but they’re estimated to begin next year in the $91MM range, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Cleveland could use some of the money that had been earmarked for Kluber to address at least one other need (second base? Outfield?). Plus, the Indians are already accustomed to life without Kluber, who didn’t pitch beyond May 1 last season after suffering a fractured forearm. Kluber had a surprisingly difficult time during that one-month span, as his 5.80 ERA over seven starts shows, and the Indians then saw Shane Bieber turn into a star, Mike Clevinger further establish himself as an excellent starter, and Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac make encouraging debuts. They’re also slated to welcome back the consistently outstanding Carlos Carrasco, who missed the majority of 2019 because of a leukemia diagnosis, to their rotation.

Now, both the Rangers and Indians seem to have set their starting fives well before the beginning of next season. In your opinion, though, did one team make out better than the other in the trade?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

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With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

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