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Poll: Should MLB Adopt Tied Games In 2020? (Or Beyond?)

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We don’t know if any Major League Baseball games are going to be played in 2020, nor what tweaks we’ll see to the standard framework of a game if play does resume.  To recap some of the ideas have been publicly floated, teams could potentially end up playing the entire season at MLB stadiums and Spring Training parks in Arizona and Florida, regularly playing at least one doubleheader per week in order to fit as many games as possible into a truncated schedule.  We already heard last month that the league was planning to allow 29-man rosters for at least the start of a shortened season, and it could very well be the case that expanded rosters become the norm for any games played in 2020, owing again to the need to keep as many players fresh and healthy as possible for this sprint of a season.

The changes may extend to the on-field product itself.  Doubleheaders could be staged as two seven-inning games, rather than standard nine-inning contests.  Dodgers star Justin Turner recently proposed the idea that, instead of extra innings, teams would decide games in 2020 by having a Home Run Derby if the score was still deadlocked after a 10th inning.  As Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times noted in that last link, an abbreviated season could also give MLB the opportunity to apply its automatic-baserunner experiment for extra innings (already used in the All-Star Game and World Baseball Classic) to regular season contests.

These are all interesting ideas, and frankly, no concept should be off the table given all the difficulties the league faces in trying to launch any kind of season while keeping players, team staff, and stadium personnel as safe and healthy as possible.  That said, the traditionalist baseball fan in me can’t help but be hesitant at alterations to the nature of the sport itself.  Something like an expanded roster isn’t an issue, but holding a seven-inning game or deciding an important regular season contest with a HR derby doesn’t seem quite right.

If limiting the time of games and the extra innings conundrum are going to be obstacles, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli (subscription required) recently suggested a simple proposal — tie games.  Every regular season contest would end after nine innings, no matter the score.  As per one reader e-mail to Ghiroli, MLB would adopt a point system of awarding two points for a win, one point for a tie, and zero points for a loss.

It can definitely be argued that ending extra innings is much more of a fundamental shift in baseball’s nature than, say, putting an automatic runner on second base in the 10th inning onward.  After all, there’s definitely a romance to the idea of a game that always has a decisive winner.  Just about every baseball fan has at least one personal story of attending a marathon game until the very end, or showing up bleary-eyed at work the next day after staying up very late to watch their favorite team finish a West Coast game that went 14 innings.

It’s worth noting, however, that the threat of a tie score adds its own level of drama to games.  As Ghiroli notes, it creates “a real emphasis on winning in nine innings, the drama unfolding over the final three outs because there is no more baseball.  Managers won’t have to save guys in the bullpen or think about who may be needed to play the field in the 10th.”

Postseason games, naturally, would still have as many extra innings as necessary to decide a winner.  But for the regular season, a tie game in baseball wouldn’t be any different than a tied football game or a tied soccer game, both of which are familiar concepts for sports fans.  While there may be some level of dissatisfaction in watching a game that ends without a clear winner, a tie has its own sort of “we’ll get ’em next time” feel that is particularly fitting for baseball, particularly since that proverbial “next time” could be the very next day.

Rather than limit draws to just a 2020 season, Ghiroli suggests that tied games could become a regular element of baseball going forward.  “We know viewership — on TV and at the game — drops the longer a game goes,” Ghiroli writes.  “We know baseball is constantly fighting the stigma of being long and boring.  We know, more than ever before, thanks to oodles of data that exhaustion increases the chances of injury and a game with its stars hurt suffers greatly.”  Adopting tie games wouldn’t be too much of an impact on the overall schedule; to use the 2019 regular season as an example, no team played more than 19 extra-inning games last year.

Let’s open it up to the MLBTR readership to get other views about both the idea of tie games or other late-game methods of deciding a winner, both in a 2020 season and beyond.  (Links to both Poll One and Poll Two for app users).

MLBTR Poll: Red Sox Punishment

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After a long wait, we finally learned of the official outcome of the Red Sox sign-stealing investigation. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred docked the team its 2020 second-round pick. He also suspended the club’s replay coordinator, J.T. Watkins, after determining that Watkins had at times used a TV feed during games to figure out an opponents’ signs and then conveyed that information to “a limited number of Red Sox players,” who could then attempt to apply it if they reached second base. There was evidently no evidence of a broader effort by team leadership, which (per Manfred) had in fact “consistently communicated MLB’s sign-stealing rules to non-player staff and made commendable efforts toward instilling a culture of compliance in their organization.”

Manfred took a much harsher view of the conduct of the Astros, whose World Series-winning 2017 club was judged to have engaged in a broad-based, long-running, and rather expansive effort to ascertain signs and convey them in real time to batters. The Houston organization was docked four top draft choices and $5MM, while its manager and general manager were hit with year-long suspensions.

A slightly lesser (season-long) ban has now been applied to former Astros bench coach and Red Sox manager Alex Cora, though Manfred made clear it was for his conduct while in Houston. Cora lost his job in Boston over the offseason after the Astros fired A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow. Former Astros player Carlos Beltran also departed his managerial gig with the Mets before it really even started.

Since the actions against Cora didn’t stem from his time with the Red Sox, it wasn’t really part of the punishment. The team will have to fill in for Watkins, though that action was obviously targeted primarily at him personally. As for the lost draft pick, Manfred made clear he levied the punishment because the Red Sox may have benefited, not because of any organizational failing.

When we polled the MLBTR readership on Manfred’s handling of the Astros case, most felt it was either on the mark or too light. How do you feel about his actions with regards to the Red Sox? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Third Base Building Blocks

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Major League Baseball boasts a high number of quality third basemen, evidenced in part by the fact that nine regulars at the position totaled at least 4.5 fWAR last season. The Athletics’ Matt Chapman and the Red Sox’s Rafael Devers finished in the top five in that category, and as players who are controllable for the foreseeable future and only in their 20s, they represent a pair of the top building blocks in the game. The question, though, is which player you’d rather have going forward.

The easy answer (or so it seems) is Chapman, whose career production has trounced Devers’ since the two debuted in 2017. Not only is he a defensive wizard, but Chapman can flat-out hit. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s all-around excellence had led to 15.5 fWAR thus far, including back-to-back seasons of 6.0 fWAR or better. He’s now coming off a career-best campaign as a power hitter in 2019, when he batted .249/.342/.506 (125 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 670 plate appearances.

Chapman still has four years of team control left, including one more pre-arb season (that’s if there is MLB in 2020). The same goes for Devers, so the two are even in that regard. As mentioned, Chapman’s output has crushed Devers’ in the aggregate. However, Devers closed the gap a season ago with a 5.9-fWAR showing, and he’s also several years younger than Chapman. Devers, who won’t even turn 24 until October, was roughly a league-average offensive player from 2017-18, but the proverbial light bulb went on last season during a .311/.361/.555 effort (132 wRC+) in which he slugged 32 homers over 702 PA.

Devers has nothing on Chapman at third – the former put up minus-10 DRS and plus-2.7 UZR last year; the latter recorded an otherworldly plus-34 DRS and plus-14.8 UZR – but they’re close in terms of offensive prowess. And Devers is so much younger than Chapman that it’s hard not to take that into consideration when comparing the two. Going by fWAR, Chapman was the third-most valuable third baseman in baseball in 2019. Devers was fourth. You can’t lose with either player, but all things considered, whom would you rather have heading into the future?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: High-Dollar Relief Signings

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Since we’re left to imagine baseball for the time being, it seems natural to ask for MLBTR reader opinions on what might’ve been. We wouldn’t know much by this point had the season begun as usual, but we’d at least have a look at the health and stuff of the (relatively few) relievers that received big contracts over the offseason.

Let’s run through the $10MM+ bullpen contracts and then get to the question …

Will Smith, LHP: three years, $40MM with Braves — This one cost the Atlanta org draft compensation. And it’s the biggest reliever deal of the winter. But it’s arguably worth it for a guy that turned in a 2.76 ERA with a big 13.2 K/9 in 2019.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP: four years, $34MM with Padres — Everyone’s jaws are still on the floor here, given that Pomeranz nearly washed out with the Giants by the middle of the the ’19 campaign. His second half resurgence as a high-grade reliever was compelling — he not only carried a 1.88 ERA but struck out nearly half the batters he faced — but this was a bold strike for the Friars.

Will Harris, RHP: three years, $24MM with Nationals — He isn’t young and doesn’t have high-octane stuff, but Harris has just plain gotten the job done for quite some time. The veteran spins the ball about as well as anyone and owned a 2.36 ERA in his 297 innings with the Astros.

Chris Martin, RHP: two years, $14MM with Braves — You can save your Coldplay jokes. Martin was absolutely legit in 2019, fanning 65 batters while issuing just a handful of walks and compiling a 3.40 ERA in his 55 2/3 frames.

Daniel Hudson, RHP: two years, $11MM with Nationals — If you focus on the 2.47 ERA he compiled in 73 innings, and add in a glance at his postseason moments, this might look like a complete bargain. But Hudson’s peripherals didn’t support greater earnings than this. It could still be a nice buy if he can keep the momentum going upon his return to D.C.

Dellin Betances, RHP: one year, $10.5MM with Mets — The former star Yankees reliever decided to stay in his native New York on an interesting deal with the cross-town Mets. At his best, he’s a monster that can dominate in multi-inning appearances. But Betances is coming back from some significant injuries and hadn’t regained all his velocity in his brief MLB showing last year.

Blake Treinen, RHP: one year, $10MM with Dodgers — It’s not often a non-tendered player inks for more money than he was projected to earn in arbitration. That it happened here suggests that Treinen — who undeniably possesses thrilling stuff — drew significant interest when he hit the open market.

The question: which of these deals do you think will deliver the most excess value to the team? (Link for app users. Response order randomized.)

Ace-Off: Buehler v. Bieber

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Two of the preeminent young starters in baseball have emerged in the cities of Los Angeles and Cleveland over the past couple years. With no disrespect to Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw, who’s one of the best to ever take the mound, right-hander Walker Buehler has assumed the mantle of the club’s most valuable starter when you combine age, contract and performance. Meanwhile, the Indians have a similarly enviable rotation piece to build around in righty Shane Bieber, who joined Buehler among the majors’ most productive pitchers in 2019. So, here’s a question that has no wrong answer: If you had to pick one, which of the two would you choose?

To begin, they’re almost the same age, and they’re under team control for the same number of years. The 25-year-old Buehler won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2024. As a Super Two player, he brings one more pre-arbitration campaign to the table (though it won’t matter if there is no 2020 season). Bieber, who will turn 25 next month, is due to reach free agency at the same time, but he’s in his penultimate pre-arb year.

As for on-field results, Buehler has the edge on Bieber thus far in terms of run prevention. Excluding 9 1/3 rough debut innings as a reliever in 2017, Buehler has parlayed a 96 mph-plus fastball into a sterling 2.98 ERA/3.02 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.08 BB/9 across 319 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Bieber also began to make his mark in 2018, and while his 4.55 ERA didn’t wow anyone, his peripherals indicated that he deserved better. Although he doesn’t match Buehler’s velocity (Bieber averages 93 mph on his heater), he nonetheless broke out in earnest last season. Bieber notched a 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP and put up 10.88 K/9 against 1.68 BB/9 in 214 1/3 frames – the second-highest total in the game (only AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander amassed a larger amount) and 32 more than Buehler’s 182 1/3. Buehler had a very similar year otherwise, though, posting a 3.26 ERA/3.01 FIP and recording 10.61 K/9 versus 1.83 BB/9. He further put himself on the map with 12 2/3 exemplary innings of one-run ball in a playoff series loss to the eventual World Series champion Nationals.

It’s obvious there’s a ton to like about this tandem. Buehler and Bieber have not only already established themselves as elite pitchers in their mid-20s, but perhaps elite players in general. Going forward, however, which one would you take to head up your rotation? (Poll link for app users)

The Battle Of Pennsylvania First Basemen

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It’s no secret that the majors’ two Pennsylvania-based teams possess a couple of the most powerful first basemen in the game. In the Phillies’ corner, there’s Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, the Pirates are fortunate enough to have Josh Bell manning the position. Both players are 27 years old and under club control for the next few seasons. But which of the two would you prefer on your team?

Let’s start with Hoskins, a 2014 fifth-round pick who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2017, when he only played in 50 games but still managed to wallop 18 home runs. Although Hoskins has come back to earth since then, he has still been more productive than your typical hitter. The right-handed slugger mashed 29 homers last year, and though his batting average was alarmingly low, his overall slash line (.226/.364/.454) placed him 10 percent above the average hitter by measure of OPS+ and 13 percent above by wRC+. Furthermore, Hoskins has been rather durable – he played in 153 games two years ago and 160 in 2019. He’s also under control for four more years, including one final pre-arb campaign (that’s if a season even happens in 2020).

Bell still has three years left before becoming a free agent – he’ll make a reasonable $4.8MM this season – and has been a similarly productive batter to Hoskins throughout his career. But the switch-hitting Bell, a 2011 second-rounder, truly came into his own last year – he slashed .277/.367/.569 (143 OPS+, 135 wRC+) and racked up 37 HRs over 613 trips to the plate. Also, it was the third straight year of at least 140-some games played for Bell, so he joins Hoskins as someone you can regularly count on to pencil into your lineup.

While Bell was undoubtedly the superior offensive producer a season ago, Hoskins has doubled his lifetime fWAR output over almost 400 fewer plate appearances (Hoskins is at 7.1 in 1,577 PA; Bell has put up 3.8 in 1,968 attempts). Notably, Hoskins has performed far better at first base, having accounted for minus-1 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.9 Ultimate Zone rating to Bell’s minus-31 DRS and minus-17 UZR. However, despite Bell’s defensive issues, many teams would gladly plug his big bat into their lineup. The same goes for Hoskins. For the sake of this exercise, though, you can only choose one (and remember to consider team control for the two Scott Boras clients). Who’s your pick?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Potential Season Length

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With the coronavirus continuing to wreak havoc across the globe, nobody knows whether a Major League Baseball season will take place in 2020. Even if it does, it’s just about guaranteed that it will span for fewer than the customary 162 games; beyond that, it’s entirely possible the contests will happen at neutral sites with no fans in the stands, and that the National and American Leagues will go away for at least this season. At what point, though, would it be worthwhile to simply give up on a potential 2020 campaign?

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd spoke on the subject of a potentially canceled season Monday, arguing that it’s too soon for the league to make such a decision. I agree, but there may sadly come a time in the next few months when MLB will have to shut down completely until at least 2021 because of this pandemic. Granted, that sort of doomsday scenario should be at least a few months away from coming to fruition. If we’re lucky, for example, things will restart by June or July. That should enable the league to squeeze in at least half of a typical 162-game schedule, and that doesn’t even factor in the possibility of an increase in doubleheaders or a season taking longer than usual on the calendar.

Unfortunately, the way things have gone of late, it seems just a 100-game campaign would be a welcome outcome for everyone with a real interest in MLB. Even that would be a historical occurrence, however, as Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci noted a few weeks back that the shortest year on record is the 1981 season. A strike cut off around a third of that season and limited teams to an average of 106 games apiece.

There isn’t much doubt that the shorter a season goes, the better the chances are of strange results. The cream tends to rise to the top over a full 162, but if we’re guaranteed to see 100 or fewer games in 2020, teams that never would’ve been looked at as realistic contenders in a whole season (or those that were supposed to push for glory) could finish far from expectations. Would that be good for the game, though, or would it would tarnish the results? Feel free to vote in the poll (link for app users) and share your thoughts in the comments section…

MLBTR Poll: The Royals’ Timeline

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We all know the tale of the Royals’ recent run of glory … the team reared a group of top prospects, mixed in some bold trades, ramped up its payroll a bit and came home with a crown in 2015. It still took a series of upsets and surprising events to get to the promised land, but there’s no disputing the validity of the title. Overcoming tall odds only makes the achievement more impressive.

Some manner of rebuilding was obviously going to be required at some point. There’s a strong case to be made that the Kansas City organization should’ve pivoted more forcefully rather than overseeing two consecutive middling seasons after the parade — if not in the 2016-17 offseason, then at the 2017 trade deadline. Still, it’s understandable that the club did not wish to squander any chance at competing with its existing core.

When it finally came time to bid adieu to Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain (and eventually Mike Moustakas), the Royals gained some draft picks as compensation. The organization made clear its intentions with the ensuing 2018 draft, when it used its top five picks on collegiate pitchers. As GM Dayton Moore explained: “We wanted to make a concerted effort on getting some college pitching that we felt had high ceilings, and that could move quickly.”

In the time since, the Royals have steadfastly refused to cash in excellent veteran Whit Merrifield for prospects. There was even talk last year that the organization might pursue an opportunity to challenge for a postseason spot, though that quickly faded and the organization logged its second consecutive hundred-loss campaign.

The just-completed offseason wasn’t exactly a win-now effort. The team did add veteran players — going for another round with Alex Gordon while taking low-risk chances on Maikel Franco, Jesse Hahn, Trevor Rosenthal, and Greg Holland are hardly the — but more in the way that most rebuilding outfits do. But it also again bypassed chances to trade Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, perhaps Brad Keller … even backstop Salvador Perez (though he’s returning from a season lost to injury).

If the Royals think it’s worth holding onto players like those, it must be that they see a path to somewhat near-term contention. Clearly, the aim of the K.C. brass is to bounce back into contention sooner than later, rather than overseeing a half-decade-long retrenchment. There’s hope for a wave of talent. That 2018 draft class has thus far worked out as well as could’ve been hoped, with Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch rated as top-100 leaguewide prospects and fellow hurlers Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, and Jonathan Bowlan all considered future talents of note. And 2019 first-rounder Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as one of the game’s elite prospects; while he’s further away from the bigs, he could fly through the system. There are a few bats not far from the bigs … Nick Pratto, Khalil Lee, and Kyle Isbel among them.

The overall group of talent doesn’t exactly leap off the page. Farm-wide rankings mostly see the K.C. farm within range of average: Baseball Prospectus (12); MLB.com (17); Baseball America (18); Fangraphs (26). This isn’t a repeat of the legendary system of yore, but the Royals have a number of promising players. They’ll need that farm to yield a lot of big-league ability over the next few years if they’re to return to glory.

What’s your take on the team’s timeline back to contention? (What does “contention” mean? That’s up to you to define, but it surely includes some realistic chance of reaching the postseason.) (Poll link for app users.)

 

MLBTR Poll: The Arizona Plan

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Less than a month ago, Major League Baseball was hemming and hawing over whether to halt Spring Training. Now, the league is at least considering a rather wild approach to the 2020 season: holding all contests in the Phoenix area for at least a portion of the campaign. If you haven’t read up on this yet, you can do so here and here.

With its statement this morning, MLB has made clear that this is just one of several concepts under consideration. Perhaps this one will fade — at least, the notion of it launching as soon as May — as the situation continues to evolve.

I’ll be sharing some further thoughts on this in an MLBTR YouTube video, which you can look out for later today. But generally, it seems entirely appropriate for the league to make its best efforts to craft a plan to get the game going again. It’s just … is this one even a reasonable starting point?

Let’s see how MLBTR readers feel at this early stage (response order randomized; poll link for app users):

Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman

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The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.

Joey Bart | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).

Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey’s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.

The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.

Adley Rutschman | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).

Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.

It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

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