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Is Big Papi A Hall Of Famer?

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Baseball fans love to debate which players should make it to the Hall of Fame, and with the designated hitter position so prominent in the news at the moment, it got me to thinking about David Ortiz’s Cooperstown case. The Boston legend will be eligible to make it there in 2022, and there’s a strong argument he should wind up with a plaque in the museum.

Ortiz is one of the most feared hitters in recent memory, but his career began inauspiciously in Minnesota. As a Twin from 1997-2002, Ortiz amassed 1,693 plate appearances and batted .266/.348/.461 (106 wRC+) with 58 home runs. The Twins then cut ties with Ortiz, but at the behest of Pedro Martinez, the Red Sox signed Big Papi to a non-guaranteed contract in January 2003. Now, in terms of franchise-altering steals, that could rank in Boston sports lore with the Patriots getting Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft.

Ortiz was a smash success with the Red Sox from the jump, as he slashed .288/.369/.592 (145 wRC+) and put up 31 homers in 509 trips to the plate during his first season with the team. The Red Sox lost to the hated Yankees in the ALCS that year, but they and Ortiz frequently ruled the sport after that. During the rest of Ortiz’a career from 2004-16, all of which was spent in Boston, the Red Sox won three World Series. He was a 10-time All-Star and a .290/.386/.570 hitter (146 wRC+) who piled up 483 homers with the team during that span. Along with his regular-season accomplishments, Ortiz was a monster in the playoffs. When the chips were down in the fall, Ortiz was known to thrive. He was a World Series MVP (2013) and an ALCS MVP (2004 – the year the Red Sox overcame a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees) who appeared in 85 postseason games between his two clubs and hit .289/.404/.543 with 17 HRs.

As for the regular season, Ortiz ranks 65th all-time in wRC+ (140) and 182nd among position players in fWAR (51.0). He ended his career a .286/.380/.552 hitter who racked up the 17th-most homers ever, 541, and remained an elite hitter even in his last season. Ortiz’s amazing run didn’t come without issues, though. Back in 2009, the New York Times reported Ortiz tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in his breakout 2003 campaign. Ortiz vehemently denied those claims, as you’d expect, and commissioner Rob Manfred came to the slugger’s defense in 2016. Manfred said (via the Boston Globe) it was “entirely possible” Ortiz didn’t take PEDs, adding that “he’s never been a positive at any point under our (testing) program” that began in 2004.

Even if you’re OK with brushing off the PED questions when it comes to Ortiz’s Hall of Fame candidacy, are you willing to be as forgiving when it comes to a lack of defensive impact? For the most part, Ortiz was a full-time DH during his career, which some purists frown upon. For example, former Mariners superstar Edgar Martinez is one of the greatest DHs ever, but it took him until his final year on the ballot (2019) to get to Cooperstown. He’d have been a first-ballot pick for me if I had a vote, though, and the same applies to Ortiz. However, as Hall of Fame expert and FanGraphs writer Jay Jaffe explained in a piece for SI.com in 2016, “a spot in Cooperstown is no certainty” for Ortiz. Do you think it should be?

(Poll link for app users)

Grading Jason Heyward’s Career (So Far)

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It would be an understatement to say the Cubs’ Jason Heyward has had an eventful career in professional baseball. Heyward was the 14th pick of the Braves in the 2007 draft, and the Georgia-raised outfielder’s star continued to rise thereafter. As a prospect, Heyward topped out as Baseball America’s No. 1 overall farmhand after the 2009 season.

“Even if he opens 2010 at Triple-A Gwinnett, Heyward will be starting in Atlanta at some point during the year, and he has all the ability to emerge as one of the game’s premier players,” BA wrote then.

The towering Heyward did not start 2010 in the minors, though, instead beginning as the Braves’ top right fielder. And he made an enormous impact from the get-go, smashing a first-inning, three-run homer off Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano in his initial at-bat. The Braves went on to win that game and 90 more en route to a wild-card berth, owing in no small part to a 4.6-fWAR Heyward effort in which he batted .277/.393/.456 in 623 plate appearances.

It seemed that the rookie version of Heyward was indeed destined for greatness, but his career hasn’t been particularly consistent since then. Heyward remained a Brave from 2011-14, a 2,196-plate appearance run in which he batted .258/.340/.422 with 14.9 fWAR, but they decided after the last of those seasons to trade the homegrown standout to the Cardinals in a deal for right-hander Shelby Miller. That wasn’t indefensible from the Braves’ point of view, as Miller was then an up-and-coming starter with a few years’ team control remaining and Heyward had just one season left before reaching free agency.

[RELATED: Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing]

If you go by fWAR, Heyward had his best in St. Louis (5.6), hitting .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and a career-high 23 steals in 610 PA. Heyward was part of a 100-win team that year, but after the Cardinals bowed out of the NLDS against the Cubs, the free agent went to … the Cubs. They handed him an eight-year, $184MM guarantee, but Heyward’s regular-season numbers have fallen flat dating back to then. During his first four years as a Cub, Heyward batted an underwhelming .252/.327/.383 line across 2,151 trips to the plate, leading to 6.0 fWAR. Heyward’s typically outstanding defense has kept him afloat, as he has logged 42 Defensive Runs Saved and a 27.2 Ultimate Zone Rating as a Chicago outfielder (overall, he has put up 143 DRS with a 99.5 UZR as a big leaguer). Of course, it’s not always just about statistics.

On Nov. 2, 2016, the Cubs and Indians were tied 6-6 through nine innings and stuck in a rain delay in Game 7 of the World Series. It was two teams trying to break long championship droughts, but on Chicago’s side, Heyward went into Knute Rockne mode in the locker room.

“We’re the best team in baseball, and we’re the best team in baseball for a reason,” Heyward told his teammates (via Tom Verducci’s book “The Cubs Way: The Zen of Building the Best Team in Baseball and Breaking the Curse“). “Now we’re going to show it. We play like the score is nothing-nothing. We’ve got to stay positive and fight for your brothers. Stick together and we’re going to win this game.” 

“Right then I thought, We’re winning this f—— game!,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said.

The Cubs did just that when the 17-minute delay ended, defeating the Indians in the 10th to pick up their first title in 108 years. It’s hard to quantify how much Heyward meant to that team on an emotional level. He went 0-for-5 in that game and posted a miserable .307 OPS during the postseason, which came after he recorded a personal-worst 72 wRC+ in the regular season, but that Game 7 speech will always live in Cubs lore.

While the Cubs haven’t won another title since 2016, Heyward’s production has trended upward going back to then, as he has been something close to a league-average hitter. Still, that’s not great for a former can’t-miss prospect who’s owed another $86MM through 2023. In all, Heyward has been a bit better than average as an offensive player during his career, having batted .261/.343/.412 (107 wRC+) with 144 homers and 110 steals in 5,580 PA. However, consistently stellar defense has helped the 30-year-old accumulate 31.1 fWAR, which is a higher amount than the vast majority of major leaguers have piled up, and he may have helped key a Cubs title behind the scenes. All things considered, how would you grade his career to this point?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Universal DH In 2020?

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When MLB commissioner Rob Manfred spoke back in 2018 about the possibility of adding a designated hitter to the National League, revealing that the dialogue “probably moved a little bit,” MLBTR readers responded in what was probably the most evenly-split poll we’ve ever conducted here; among 13,118 respondents, there was a 50.07 to 49.93 percent result ever so slightly favoring the status quo and keeping the DH to the American League only.

Circumstances have changed in 2020, to say the least. Over the weekend, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the proposal the league is preparing to present to the Players Association includes a designated hitter in both leagues for the 2020 season — a measure aimed at keeping pitchers healthier during a shortened schedule that could include an abnormally brief ramp-up period, increased doubleheaders and/or fewer off-days.

If such measures are put in place this year, that will surely serve as a litmus test of sorts for a more permanent implementation of the rule. Adding a DH in the NL has been a hotly debated and oft-discussed topic for years now, as NL purists lament the potential loss of strategy while those in favor of the DH point to the general futility of pitchers at the plate.

The primary reason the league would favor the change, in the long term, would be to increase the regularity of balls in play. Pitchers batted a combined .128/.160/.162 last season in 5173 plate appearances (a negative-18 wRC+) — and that was their best offensive showing in the past five years. But that was also due in part to a BABIP spike, it seems, as pitchers struck out at a woeful 43.5 percent clip — their worst mark ever. Conversely, the league-average non-pitcher hit .256/.327/.443 with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate. Dropping pitchers for even league-average bats in those DH spots would have resulted in about 1100 fewer strikeouts over the course of the season (plus another 606 bunts).

On the other side of the coin, fewer double-switches would occur, and managers would be spared the occasional decision of whether to let a hot pitcher hit with runners aboard in a close or scoreless game. Those decisions are among the most cherished strategic elements of the game for many fans — particularly those who grew up up in NL cities or prior to the implementation of the DH entirely. We just passed the four-year anniversary of Bartolo Colon’s iconic home run, and there’s nary a more universally rejoiced oddity than watching Big Sexy’s home run trot against the audio backdrop of an elated Gary Cohen roaring, “Bartolo has done it! The impossible has happened!” Highlights of that nature are rare, but it’s that very scarcity that makes them such instant classics and treasured memories.

With all that in mind, and recognizing the unprecedented circumstances under which the league and union are working to put together some semblance of a season, let’s check in on some thoughts regarding the addition of a DH to the senior circuit. I know many in the anti-DH crowd would vote to remove the DH in the American League. However, it doesn’t seem that either the union or league would have cause to prefer that route, so I opted not to include it as an option — but feel free to voice it in the comments (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Let’s Name The Defining Trade Of The Past Decade

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Back at the start of the year, I ran down the most memorable trades of the preceding decade. It was tough to nail down the swaps that I found most compelling; many folks wrote in with others that I added in an honorable mention section. In some cases, people suggested deals that were highly notable to them but relatively unexciting to me. Just as with the game itself, we all experience the hot stove differently.

At the time, I was gathering up the most notable deals. I thought about doing a ranking, but dismissed the idea. It was tough enough to pull together a list. Now I’ve come to wonder … in spite of our differing experiences, and the inherent subjectivity of it all, can we find some amount of consensus on the topic?

I don’t want to spread this too thin, so I’m not going to include every deal mentioned in the original post. Oh, and I went ahead and included a new entrant! You should read the original post on the subject — or click the links below to the deals themselves — for more details on the swaps. I’ll present them here in chronological order.

Brewers Acquire Zack Greinke (12/19/10)

Royals Acquire James Shields, Wade Davis (12/9/12)

Red Sox, Dodgers Complete Nine-Player Blockbuster (8/25/12)

Blue Jays, Marlins Complete 12-Player Blockbuster (11/13/12)

Blue Jays Acquire Josh Donaldson (11/28/14)

Padres Acquire Craig Kimbrel (4/5/15)

Wilmer’s Tears: Astros Acquire Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers / Mets Acquire Yoenis Cespedes (7/31/15)

Diamondbacks Acquire Shelby Miller (12/9/15)

Cubs Acquire Aroldis Chapman (7/25/16)

Red Sox Acquire Chris Sale (12/6/16)

Astros Acquire Justin Verlander (9/1/17)

Marlins Trio: Yankees Acquire Giancarlo Stanton / Cardinals Acquire Marcell Ozuna / Brewers Acquire Christian Yelich (12/17-1/18)

Dodgers Acquire Mookie Betts, David Price (2/9/20)

You have a baker’s dozen to choose from. The response order is randomized in the poll. Let’s name the defining trade of the past decade! (Poll link for app users.)

Which CPBL/KBO Team Are You Adopting?

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It may not be the majors, but the Taiwanese and Korean leagues have offered us all a chance to watch competitive baseball while MLB is on hold. Surely some MLBTR readers are partaking … no doubt a few have even adopted new favorite teams.

It’d be even easier to fall in love with these fun leagues if fans were in attendance. Having attended some Japanese games in person myself, I can tell you it’s quite an experience to see how the game is enjoyed on the other side of the Pacific. But even without the full pageantry, there’s a lot to enjoy — bat flips, of course, being the best-known form of punctuation.

So, if you’re following the Chinese Professional Baseball League and/or Korea Baseball Organization, which team have you taken to rooting for? For those that haven’t yet decided, here’s the list … with the team’s former MLB players noted in case you need some help picking.

CPBL

KBO

A Shortstop Showdown

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While they’re not in the same division, a pair of centrally based major league teams have produced a couple of the majors’ top-performing shortstops. The White Sox of the American League Central have seen Tim Anderson turn into a rather valuable player. The same goes for the Cardinals of the National League Central and Paul DeJong. They’re pretty similar in value, age and contract situations, but which of the two would you rather have?

Anderson, 26, was a first-round pick in 2013 who debuted in ’16 and took some time to find himself as a major league hitter. In 1,643 plate appearances from his first year through 2018, he hit a below-average .258/.286/.411 (86 wRC+) with 46 home runs and 51 stolen bases. A high strikeout rate (26 percent) and a low walk percentage (3.4) were part of the problem. Those K/BB trends largely stayed in place last year (2.9 percent and 21 percent, respectively), but Anderson nonetheless found another gear a hitter. He slashed .335/.357/.508 (130 wRC+) with 18 homers and 17 steals en route to a career-best 3.5 fWAR (he combined for 4.1 in the prior three seasons) and an AL batting title. Of course, he was also the beneficiary of a .399 batting average on balls in play – up .110 points from the previous year – and Statcast wasn’t as bullish as his bottom-line production (.363 weighted on-base average versus .328 expected wOBA).

Shifting to the defensive side, Anderson hasn’t been a consistently good player, at least not according to the metrics. By Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, he has been a plus player twice and a minus fielder twice. The most recent campaign fell into the latter category, as he posted minus-12 DRS with a minus-9.1 UZR. DeJong, meanwhile, has greatly outdone Anderson as a defender since debuting with the Cardinals in 2017. Last season, for instance, DeJong put up 26 DRS and 11.4 UZR, making him one of the sport’s top fielders.

Also 26, DeJong has graded as a solid performer on a regular basis dating back to his first game in the majors. He has been at least a 3.0-fWAR player every season, including a career-high 4.1 mark in 2019. DeJong, unlike Anderson, has struggled to hit for average of late, but he was a 30-HR man last year – a season in which he finished with a .233/.318/.444 mark (100 wRC+) across 664 plate appearances. Going by wRC+, it was the third consecutive time that DeJong registered league-average or better offensive numbers. That and his excellent defense have combined to make DeJong quite valuable for St. Louis.

Beyond the production on the field, you have to consider the two players’ contracts when comparing them. They’re pretty alike in that regard, too. Anderson inked a six-year, $25MM extension heading into the 2017 season. That deal also includes a $12.5MM club option for 2023 and a potential $14MM salary the next season. Whether or not the White Sox pick up either option, they’re surely not regretting the gamble now. Likewise, the Cardinals must be happy that they locked DeJong into a six-year, $26MM pact prior to 2018. That deal includes a $12.5MM option for 2024 and $15MM in ’25.

There’s a lot to like about both of these shortstops, but if you have to pick one, whom would you want on your team? (Poll link for app users)

Who’s The Top 2020-21 Free Agent Starter?

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There’s a lot of time left to assess the 2020-21 free agent class. It would help to have, y’know, some actual baseball to help inform. But in the absence of that, we can still make some assessments based upon what we already know.

Scanning the upcoming group of open-market starters, there’s no clear top arm. It’s certainly possible that one or more hurlers will significantly boost his stock with a big (partial) 2020 season, as we’ve seen in recent years from guys like Zack Wheeler and Patrick Corbin. But it’s pretty clear we’re not going to see another $200MM+ pitcher in the upcoming offseason.

There’s necessarily some serious guesswork here, but let’s see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Here are the candidates we’ll consider … which is likeliest to be the top free agent starter? (In alphabetical order below, randomized in the poll.)

  • Trevor Bauer: Well, we just gave you our best early guesses on camera. There’s no denying the upside here, as exhibited in his monster 2018 season. Bauer has all the necessary tools and is a curious craftsman when it comes to driving improvement. With a strong showing, he could be chased by quite a few contenders that find appeal in the idea of a rental ace.
  • Mike Minor: The results have been quite good and Minor’s health issues have faded. Perhaps his two lost seasons (2015-16) can even be spun as a bit of an advantage, in that he wasn’t logging mileage on his arm in that span.
  • Jake Odorizzi: Here’s a hurler that is easy to overlook. Odorizzi is coming off of a 3.51 ERA campaign and can’t be issued another qualifying offer.
  • James Paxton: With a long layoff, Paxton has had an opportunity to rest his surgically repaired back. That could help him more than any other player on this list.
  • Jose Quintana: Steady production. Excellent durability. He was probably somewhat unfortunate to post below-average results in 2019.
  • Robbie Ray: Probably the favorite for top dog status … and yet … the strikeout numbers are gaudy, but so are the walk rates. And Ray hasn’t consistently turned swings and misses into output. He owns a 4.11 ERA and landed higher than that mark in 2019.
  • Garrett Richards: When he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty awesome. Richards is recovered from Tommy John surgery and well-rested.
  • Marcus Stroman: It’s possible we’re not hyping Stroman enough. He just turned in 32 starts of 3.22 ERA ball.
  • Masahiro Tanaka: Through his six years in the majors, Tanaka has run up over a thousand frames of 3.75 ERA pitching.
  • Other: There’s a case that you’d be best off betting on the field. There are some talented arms out there who could launch back into big-contract status with a strong showing in 2020. Among them: Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha, Jimmy Nelson, Anthony DeSclafani, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, etc.

Who’s the favorite to be the market leader? (Poll link for app users.)

A Battle Of NL East Superstars

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We’ve seen two of the brightest young offensive stars in baseball emerge in the National League East over the past couple years. The Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Nationals’ Juan Soto have been enormously successful since they made their debuts in 2018, and the outfielders have played important roles in helping lead their clubs to prominence. The Braves have taken the division in each of Acuna’s two seasons, while Soto was among the reasons the Nationals won their first-ever World Series last fall. The two look as if they’ll be franchise cornerstones for the long haul, but if you can only have one, which player would you pick?

Going by production, there hasn’t been a huge difference in their careers so far. The 22-year-old Acuna’s a 9.3-fWAR player through his first 1,202 plate appearances and a .285/.365/.532 hitter with 67 home runs, 53 stolen bases and an excellent wRC+ of 133. The righty masher fell just shy of a 40/40 effort in 2019, when he smacked 41 dingers and swiped an NL-high 37 bags. Furthermore, Acuna has fared respectably as a defender thus far – including as the Braves’ primary center fielder last year – with 16 DRS and a minus-0.6 UZR to this point.

By measure of wRC+, Soto has been an even more effective hitter than Acuna. Soto, who only became old enough to legally drink as last year’s World Series was going on, owns a jaw-dropping 143 mark in that category. The lefty swinger’s a .287/.403/.535 batter with 56 homers and 8.5 fWAR through 1,153 PA, though he doesn’t come close to Acuna in terms of stolen bases (17). Acuna’s overall defensive output has also been better, but Soto did make strides in that area last season. After putting up minus-6 DRS and minus-4.2 UZR as a rookie in left field, he improved to zero and minus-0.7 in those categories as a sophomore.

The overall numbers Acuna and Soto have managed at such young ages have been astounding. But you can’t just consider production when comparing the two. One of the key facts about Acuna is that his team has already locked him up for the foreseeable future, as the Braves extended him to an eight-year, $100MM guarantee after his first season. With $17MM club options for 2027 and ’28, the deal could keep Acuna in place for almost the whole decade. That’s a lengthy commitment and a lot of money, but it has nonetheless always come off as a no-brainer move from Atlanta’s perspective.

The Nationals would surely love to sign Soto to a similar pact, but it’s hard to believe they’ll get him on such a team-friendly deal. At the very least, though, they do still have the right to control the Scott Boras client for the next half-decade, including one more pre-arbitration year if a season does take place in 2020.

The bottom line is that you can’t lose with either of these players, no doubt two of the greatest assets in the sport. But you’re only allowed to build around one of them, so take your pick…

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: A 3-Division Plan

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Many ideas have been floated in regards to how a 2020 Major League Baseball season might work. We’ve seen two-, three-, five-, 10- and 12-state plans come to the fore. The possibility of every major league team playing in its home stadium without spectators has also been mentioned. The latest unconventional suggestion became public Tuesday, when Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported MLB could start sometime in late June or early July and scrap the traditional American and National Leagues for a season and shift to a three-division plan consisting of 10 teams apiece. Here’s how it would shake out…

East:

  • Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Nationals, Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, Blue Jays, Rays, Marlins

West:

  • Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Athletics, Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rangers, Astros, Mariners

Central:

  • Cubs, White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals, Royals, Reds, Indians, Twins, Braves, Tigers

The 10 teams in each division would only play one another during the regular season, so you wouldn’t see, say, the rival Mets and Braves match up. It’s a bizarre setup for those accustomed to a six-division league, but everybody’s health permitting, wouldn’t a weird baseball season be better than no baseball season at all? What do you think about this idea? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: Would You Watch KBO Broadcasts?

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This morning’s report that ESPN is in the midst of seemingly productive talks to acquire the broadcast rights for Korea Baseball Organization games was met with a widely positive response in comments both here and on social media, although the potential arrival of KBO coverage in North America wasn’t universally lauded. While many fans would welcome any form of competitive baseball on television and relish a chance to see some former big leaguers suiting up with regularity, others questioned the level of competition (relative to MLB) and the awkwardness of watching televised games without fans in the stands.

KBO games coming to ESPN — and/or other major sports networks elsewhere in the world — isn’t yet a certainty but would at least provide some real-life baseball to follow if such an arrangement did come to fruition (no disrespect to the Players’ League in MLB The Show intended). I was perhaps remiss not to include a formal poll in this morning’s post on the topic, so let’s conduct a more formal survey here (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):

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