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MLBTR Poll: The Arizona Plan

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Less than a month ago, Major League Baseball was hemming and hawing over whether to halt Spring Training. Now, the league is at least considering a rather wild approach to the 2020 season: holding all contests in the Phoenix area for at least a portion of the campaign. If you haven’t read up on this yet, you can do so here and here.

With its statement this morning, MLB has made clear that this is just one of several concepts under consideration. Perhaps this one will fade — at least, the notion of it launching as soon as May — as the situation continues to evolve.

I’ll be sharing some further thoughts on this in an MLBTR YouTube video, which you can look out for later today. But generally, it seems entirely appropriate for the league to make its best efforts to craft a plan to get the game going again. It’s just … is this one even a reasonable starting point?

Let’s see how MLBTR readers feel at this early stage (response order randomized; poll link for app users):

Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman

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The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.

Joey Bart | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).

Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey’s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.

The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.

Adley Rutschman | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).

Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.

It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

MLBTR Poll: The Luis Robert Extension

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Super-talented, MLB-ready 22-year-olds don’t grow on trees. If you do happen upon one, what are the odds they perfectly fit your roster need and contention window? Viewed from that perspective, and accounting for the context of MLB player valuation, the $50MM risk the White Sox took on Luis Robert is a slam dunk.

Of course, all of that guaranteed cash is payable over a six-year term — the precise amount of time the club could’ve enjoyed him in the majors even without promising another dime. And it could’ve been nearly seven full seasons with a bit of service-time trickery. So, the South Siders are only gaining control over one or two seasons of would-be free agency. (Which is it? Depends upon one’s cynicism levels. And the as-yet-unknown question whether Robert will need to spend further time in the minors once he reaches the big leagues.)

Presuming the options are exercised, the deal maxes out at $88MM over eight campaigns. And that’s on top of the $26MM that the team spent just to lure Robert into the organization in the first place! Compare that to Mookie Betts, one of the game’s most productive younger players, who just secured a record-setting $27MM salary for his final trip through arbitration. The Red Sox and Dodgers got 6+ seasons of Betts for a total cost of about $60MM in salary.

Now, there’s inflation to consider. Betts’s earnings wouldn’t have been nearly that robust had he debuted six seasons earlier. If Robert can produce something like Betts, he’ll surely out-earn Mookie. And the White Sox are picking up one or two added seasons of control, which could be quite valuable. We know how much the Dodgers valued the chance to control Betts for just one season, even while paying him a big salary. Again: if Robert has a career path of that kind, then those option years will be an enormous boon to the White Sox.

The thing is, it’s not really reasonable to compare Robert to a guy like Betts. Can he perform to that level? Sure, he’s considered one of the very best prospects in all of baseball for a reason. But that’s hardly the likeliest outcome. Even putting aside the question of talent and production, there are numerous hiccups that can stall a player’s arbitration earning power. Carlos Correa is only earning $7.4MM in his second-to-last arb-eligible campaign — less than half of what contemporary Francisco Lindor will earn ($16.7MM). Rewind two years and these guys looked like a coin flip on value. As it turns out, Correa dealt with ill-timed injuries that significantly dented his ability to earn via arbitration.

Running the numbers, it’s hard to imagine you could really go much higher with an up-front guarantee for a pre-MLB player — at least, perhaps, unless the team was able to pick up yet more future control. The Robert contract, which tops the White Sox’ deal last year with Eloy Jimenez, included a pretty hefty premium to achieve cost certainty and some added control (along with, perhaps, the ability to promote him on Opening Day 2020 without concern for service time). That said, the White Sox have an excellent track record with extensions, having achieved big value in the past with players such as Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.

How do you view the deal? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: The 2020 Draft

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Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, there is no telling whether we’ll even get a Major League Baseball season this year. That uncertainty also affects important off-field events that include the amateur draft. The draft is still slated to take place from June 10-12, though nobody knows if it will actually occur this year.

As we noted last week, carrying on with the draft as scheduled would be the ideal scenario for the sport. Otherwise, the lives of many draft-eligible players could be thrown (even more) into chaos. How would a cancellation or postponement impact college juniors and seniors? How would it affect prospects who are about to graduate high school? Those players’ seasons – including those who would have participated in the College World Series – have already come to a halt because of this global catastrophe that has has put a stop to scouting.

Teams have less information on prospects than they normally would, but at least one executive is unfazed. That person told Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription link): “We’re not going to have an opportunity to dot the ‘i’s and cross the ‘t’s. But we’ve got a lot of information. We’ve seen these guys play for a long time. We know who the top players are. Let’s just get ‘em in our system.”

A shorter draft (two to three rounds) could take place, as Rosenthal and Stark write, but such an event would require teams to readjust their draft pools and how they handle undrafted players. The players may not be gung-ho on the idea, anyway. One person on the union’s side told Rosenthal and Stark that it would be a “colossal error” to go in that direction.

How to proceed with the draft is one of numerous difficult situations for which the league is going to have to find an answer. We’d all like to see the draft happen on time. Otherwise, though, MLB will have to push the festivities back to later this year or perhaps even combine this draft with the 2021 version.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Mets?

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It wasn’t an especially aggressive offseason for the Mets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, but perhaps it didn’t need to be. After all, even though the franchise, its ownership and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen are often maligned, team brass has assembled a rather talented roster. Last year’s Mets amassed 86 wins – the sixth-highest total in the National League – and are set to bring back their best contributors from then if and when the season gets underway.

Of course, a pair of award winners are at the forefront of the roster. Right-hander Jacob deGrom has earned back to back National League Cy Youngs. There’s little reason to believe he or first baseman Pete Alonso, who pounded 53 home runs in 2019 to earn NL Rookie of the Year honors, are going to let up. And there’s plenty of proven talent supporting that pair, with an appealing rotation (albeit one that lost Zack Wheeler to the division-rival Phillies in free agency) that will consist of some combination of deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz and Michael Wacha.

Meanwhile, a position player cast that finished 2019 seventh in wRC+ and 11th in fWAR is returning the same key complements to Alonso. Hitting machine Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto (currently down with an oblique strain, but he could be fine by the time the season starts), Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario haven’t gone anywhere. Neither has potential Hall of Fame second baseman Robinson Cano, for whom there appears nowhere to go up after a shockingly poor, injury-marred first season as a Met. And Yoenis Cespedes seems to be progressing after three straight injury-ruined campaigns of his own.

Cano and Cespedes make for potential rebound candidates, as do multiple members of a Mets bullpen that fell on its face a year ago despite Van Wagenen’s efforts to improve it during the previous winter. Edwin Diaz, who joined the Mets from the Mariners in the Cano blockbuster that has blown up in New York’s face so far, and big-money signing Jeurys Familia were terrible. Considering their strong track records, it seems fair to expect some sort of bounce-back effort this season. Likewise, former Yankees star Dellin Betances – who came to the Mets in free agency – is also seeking a return to form. But that’s on account of injuries that all but wiped out his 2019, not any kind of decline in performance. The hope is that those three will get back to normal and join Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach and likely Wacha to comprise a dominant bullpen. There’s loads of risk in that bunch, but the upside is evident.

It was an odd winter for the Mets, who had to can rookie skipper Carlos Beltran before he ever managed a game, thanks to his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. To the chagrin of many Mets fans, they also saw a potential sale of the franchise fall apart. Off-field turmoil aside, Beltran’s replacement, Luis Rojas, looks to be inheriting a good situation. However, it should be a dogfight in the NL East, which could feature as many as four contenders (the Braves, Nationals and Phillies are the others).

Before the coronavirus turned the world on its head, back when baseball was supposed to consist of 162 games, PECOTA projected 87.9 wins and a division title for the Mets. Normally, it would be customary to ask how many victories you expect them to rack up, but a 162-game season is a pipe dream at this point. Therefore, let’s take the simpler route: If a baseball season does happen, will the Mets make the playoffs?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Bauer vs. Ray vs. Stroman

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Baseball’s hiatus gives us an opportunity to examine both the past and future of the sport. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked back at a potential franchise-altering trade that never materialized. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the future: specifically, the upcoming free agent class.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran his initial 2020-21 free agent power rankings a few weeks ago. No question, Mookie Betts looks like the jewel of a position player heavy class. Yet the pitching side looks a bit muddled. Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman checked in alongside one another (in that order) as the three arms in Tim’s top ten. Obviously, there’s time for one to emerge as the unquestioned top starter on the market in 2020. As of now, though, which hurler do the MLBTR readers anticipate getting the top guarantee next winter, and which one would you prefer your favorite team roll the dice on?

  • Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati: For most of his career, the 29-year-old Bauer’s been a durable, mid-rotation type. He’s soaked up tons of innings, but in five of six seasons, he’s put up an ERA between 4.18 and 4.55 (with marginally better FIP’s). At his best, though, Bauer flashed a ceiling most pitchers can only dream of. In 2018, the former #3 overall pick worked to a 2.21 ERA with an elite 30.8% strikeout rate. An unsustainably low HR/FB rate meant that ERA always figured to regress somewhat, but it was still surprising to see Bauer post a league-average 4.48 mark in 2019. Bauer, of course, has expressed a desire to sign a series of one-year deals as a free agent. If he sticks to that plan, he’ll almost certainly not garner the top overall guarantee for a pitcher this offseason (or any other). But that high-risk approach is easier to espouse in theory than in practice, and Bauer recently walked back that plan a little bit. His free agency will be fascinating to follow.
  • Robbie Ray, Arizona: A bit like Bauer, the 28-year-old Ray is a tantalizing but somewhat frustrating talent. Since the start of 2017, he ranks fifth among starters (minimum 300 innings) in strikeout rate and 12th in swinging strike rate. He’s surrounded by the game’s aces on both leaderboards. Only Tyler Chatwood and Francisco Liriano have higher walk rates than Ray in that same period, though. The southpaw has never had a season with a better than average walk rate; that general inefficiency has run up some high pitch counts and helped prevent Ray from ever eclipsing 175 innings in a season. His ERA’s the past four years have varied quite a bit (4.90, 2.89, 3.93, 4.34). Teams could have different evaluations for Ray’s future, but the most likely outcome seems to be solid mid-rotation production via something of an extreme approach.
  • Marcus Stroman, Mets: Unlike his top two competitors, Stroman doesn’t generate many whiffs. The 28-year-old’s sinker is more conducive to a ground-ball heavy game. He throws strikes and has managed to avoid home runs even in the juiced ball era thanks to strong contact management. Stroman’s sinker/slider/cutter mix isn’t the four-seam/curveball combination coveted by most teams nowadays. Nevertheless, he’ll have plenty of suitors since he’s proven capable of ample success. 2018 was an injury-marred struggle, but Stroman’s put up at least 184.1 innings in three of the past four seasons and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. That’s a better track record of run prevention than either Bauer (4.04) or Ray (4.11) can boast.
  • Others: Other free agents to be (complete list of 2020-21 free agents) include Kevin Gausman, James Paxton, Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. Between age, injuries and/or recent underperformance, it’s tough to project any of them to beat Bauer, Ray or Stroman this winter. Perhaps you’re more optimistic about someone a bit under-the-radar?

poll link for app users

poll link for app users

MLBTR Poll: When Will Yasiel Puig Sign?

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The beginning of Major League Baseball’s regular season is just over two weeks away, yet high-profile outfielder Yasiel Puig still doesn’t have a job. The onetime All-Star and former Dodger, Red and Indian is the lone straggler from MLBTR’s offseason-opening ranking of the sport’s top 50 free agents. At that point, we forecast a one-year, $8MM contract for Puig, who reportedly turned down a $10MM guarantee from an unknown team sometime over the winter. Otherwise, reported interest in the polarizing Puig has been scarce.

Unfortunately for Puig, he didn’t reach free free agency at the ideal juncture. For one, there were similarly valuable or better corner outfielders available (Nick Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun come to mind). And though Puig was a star at times earlier in his career in Los Angeles, he combined for a mediocre 3.0 fWAR from 2018-19. Last season was especially middling for Puig, who slashed .267/.327/.458 in 611 plate appearances. While Puig did hit 24 home runs and steal 19 bases, his overall offensive output amounted to a 101 wRC+, which basically means he was a league-average performer with the bat.

As unspectacular as his numbers may have been last year, there’s certainly still an argument that Puig would be worth the trouble for someone. Earlier this week, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs made a compelling case for the Rangers to sign him on the heels of the fractured jaw fellow outfielder Willie Calhoun suffered Sunday. They’re one potential fit. But there are more teams that may be able to benefit from Puig’s presence.

Several rebuilding or non-contending clubs (the Giants, Rockies, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers and Mariners make for a half-dozen examples) are set to bring uninspiring-looking outfields to the table. Puig wouldn’t turn any of them into winners, but a few decent months could allow one of those teams to get something back for him at the July trade deadline. Even prospective contenders like the Yankees and Athletics may have needs in the grass at the moment, depending on how certain injury situations shake out. Meanwhile, the Indians – with whom Puig finished 2019 – don’t exactly boast a veritable Murderers’ Row out there.

Ultimately, it may take a serious injury in either the spring or near the start of the regular season for Puig to land somewhere in the next few weeks. But it’s odd that he remains available now – especially considering he doesn’t have a qualifying offer hanging over his head, as the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel did a year ago.

Puig has now been on the market for four-plus months. How much longer do you expect him to stay there?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Cubs?

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It’s no secret that it was  a quiet winter for the Cubs, a team coming off a 2019 collapse and a disappointing 84 wins. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a deep dive into the Cubs’ unpopular offseason, in which they spent a meager $3.5MM on major league free agents and didn’t make any earth-shattering trades.

There was some expectation the Cubs would deal at least one high-profile player (third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, for instance), but having found no offers to their liking, they seem prepared to bring back a roster somewhat similar to last year’s. That is, minus a handful of notable players – Nick Castellanos, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintzler – who performed well for Chicago in 2019 and then exited in free agency.

Despite those losses, there is still a case that the Cubs are more talented than your average club. Bryant, shortstop Javier Baez, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, catcher Willson Contreras and left fielder Kyle Schwarber are still around to drive their position player group. That unit finished top 10 in the majors in runs and fWAR last year (though Castellanos’ second-half tear contributed to both figures).

As with the loss of Castellanos, Hamels’ departure seems likely to hurt. Although injuries hampered Hamels in his last season as a Cub, he still racked up 141 2/3 innings of solid production (3.81 ERA). They’d love that this year from the beleaguered Tyler Chatwood or some other fifth starter (Alec Mills? Jharel Cotton? Adbert Alzolay?), but it’s tough to bet on it happening. The good news is that the club’s top four – Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana – should continue to at least post decent numbers. The same can’t really be said of the team’s bullpen, however. The unit received horrid production from the normally great Craig Kimbrel a year ago and, despite waving goodbye to Cishek and Kintzler (among others), didn’t do anything of significance to augment its relief corps in the winter.

Fortunately for the Cubs, the National League Central looks as if it’ll be almost anyone’s to win in 2020. The Pirates have almost no shot to contend for the crown, granted, though it could be a four-way race with the Cubs, Brewers and the reigning champion Cardinals vying against the much-improved Reds. If we’re to take this year’s PECOTA projections at face value, the Cubs will fall shy just of an NL Central title en route to 84-85 wins, yet they will earn a wild-card spot. But how do you feel about their chances under rookie manager David Ross? Do you expect a return to contention?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Eloy’s Second Season

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The White Sox made a significant investment in Eloy Jimenez before he ever played a major league game, signing the outfielder to a six-year, $43MM extension last March, and it already looks like a wise decision. The deal Jimenez inked was then a record pact for a prospect with no major league service time, but teammate and fellow outfielder Luis Robert eclipsed that mark when he landed a six-year, $50MM guarantee this past winter.

In signing Jimenez, the White Sox obviated the need to manipulate his service time, clearing the way for the then-consensus top prospect to spend all of the 2019 campaign in the majors. Jimenez didn’t get off to a great start in the first few months of his age-22 season, but his production trended way upward in the second half, leading to an above-average batting line of .267/.315/.513 (116 wRC+) with 31 home runs over 504 plate appearances. And Statcast backed up that production, crediting Jimenez with a .349 expected weighted on-base average (compared to a real wOBA of .343), a hard-hit percentage in the majors’ 92nd percentile and an average exit velocity that ranked in the 87th percentile.

If you want red flags from Jimenez’s rookie season, a couple stand out. For one, even during his second-half surge, he didn’t draw many free passes. His 6 percent walk rate sat well below the league-average mark of 8.5. On the defensive side, Jimenez wasn’t exactly a Gold Glover in left field. Despite finishing in the game’s 70th percentile in Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric, he ended with minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-11 Outs Above Average and a minus-5.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in the grass. Jimenez’s defensive struggles helped limit him to 1.9 fWAR and 1.4 bWAR during his initial campaign, essentially rendering him an average performer.

The long-suffering White Sox now have designs on being much better than average, considering how active they were in upgrading their roster during the offseason. A sizable leap in overall output from Jimenez in Year 2 of his career could go a long way in helping the team accomplish that in 2020. The question is: How productive do you think he’ll be this season? (Poll links for app users)

MLBTR Poll: The Christian Yelich Extension

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By now you’ve surely seen the news: the Brewers are closing in on a new deal with superstar Christian Yelich. We’ll presume it’s completed for purposes of this post.

This contract arises even as the Brewers reach the final guaranteed year of their deal with long-time star Ryan Braun. Yelich had already supplanted him as the face of the franchis. Now, the younger outfielder will step into the top salary slot for the team.

Things can always change — lest we forget, the Brewers have at various points dangled Braun in trade talks in recent years — but Yelich seems destined to play in those sweet new Milwaukee unis for much of the rest of his career.

How to understand this deal? The 28-year-old Yelich was already under team control for three remaining seasons under the prior extension he inked as a member of the Marlins, so there wasn’t a huge rush. But the Brewers obviously felt now was the time to act if they were going to keep him around at a palatable price tag.

With seven years and (approximately) $187.25MM in new money, this deal provides Yelich with an eye-popping salary by any reasonable standard. But it’s a clear discount as compared to the values we saw in the free-agent market this winter. Consider that Anthony Rendon just sold the same portion of his career (age 30-36 seasons) for $245MM.

Great as Rendon is, he hasn’t matched Yelich in productivity. But the Brewers earned their discount by promising the money in advance — thus taking on quite a bit more risk. The most direct comparable, perhaps, is the early 2018 deal reached between the Astros and Jose Altuve when he was still two years away from the open market. Altuve only received five additional guaranteed years but got a heftier annual salary in his agreement (five years, $151MM).

It isn’t hard to understand the math for the team. On the player side, it’s hard to resist the temptation of a potential future bonanza. But Yelich was a long ways from the open market and quite a lot can change in the interim, as his freak late-2019 knee injury shows. There’s also some off-field value for both sides in striking this sort of bargain in advance. Yelich gets the comfort and assurance of knowing where he’ll play. No doubt he’ll also find it easy to strike whatever marketing deals he might like. And the club gets to promote the player as one of the franchise’s all-time greats while plotting its long-term roster moves around his presence.

So … win-win? Or is there a different way we ought to view this pact? (Poll link for app users.)

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