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MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Reds?

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The Reds entered the offseason on the heels of their sixth straight sub-.500 showing, but president of baseball operations Dick Williams made it known at the end of the campaign that a seventh consecutive subpar effort wouldn’t be acceptable. The team’s goal when the winter began was to build its first playoff-level roster since 2013, and with most of its offseason heavy lifting likely done by now, there’s a case Cincinnati has done just that.

As we noted previously, the Reds have been one of the highest-spending teams in the National League in free agency. They’ve added two $64MM players – infielder Mike Moustakas and newly signed outfielder Nick Castellanos – as well as $21MM outfielder Shogo Akiyama (their first-ever Japanese player) and $15MM left-hander Wade Miley via the open market.

Now, the Reds’ position player cast – a group that finished last season 21st in WAR and 25th in runs – suddenly looks promising with Castellanos, Akiyama and some mix of Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino and Nick Senzel in the outfield, Joey Votto at first base, Moustakas at second and Eugenio Suarez at third. But there are questions in the group, including the health of the 49-home run man Suarez – who could miss the beginning of the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery – and the strength of their catcher and shortstop positions. Both spots looked ripe for upgrades when the offseason began, but the Reds have so far stuck with Tucker Barnhart and Freddy Galvis, respectively, despite their interest in landing a much more formidable option at short. Moreover, there’s the possibility of a Senzel trade, which could provide a helpful return for one of the Reds’ weak spots, but Williams doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to deal the prized 24-year-old.

Meanwhile, there doesn’t appear to be a lot to worry about in the Reds’ starting staff. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and Miley comprise an impressive one to five on paper, though Bauer did have more than a little bit of trouble preventing runs after the Reds acquired him from the Indians last July. The bullpen, although largely untouched this offseason, also boasts its share of stone-cold locks. Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett are all returning after posting respectable or better numbers in 2019.

While it’s nice for the Reds that they’ve bettered their roster since last season’s 75-win effort, it’s also a boon that their division has seemingly taken steps back. The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2019, but they haven’t done anything all that notable since, and they just lost their No. 1 free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, to the Braves. The Brewers – fresh off their second straight playoff season – have seen quite a few changes (good and bad) to their roster, including the losses of Moustakas and an even better free agent in catcher Yasmani Grandal. The Cubs have been quiet after a dismal finish to last season, and it’s still not out of the realm of possibility they’ll trade Kris Bryant or another important member of their roster before the new campaign rolls around. And then there’s the Pirates, who figure to be among the worst teams in the game this year.

Between the improvements they’ve made and the actions (or lack thereof) of their divisional foes, this may be the time for the Reds to return to relevance in the NL. The way their roster looks now, do you think they’re capable of doing so?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The Dodgers Swing A Blockbuster Trade?

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The Dodgers entered the winter in a gloomy state after a bitterly disappointing end to the 2019 season. But the team’s outlook remains exceptionally bright, with a compelling mix of established veterans, elite young talent, and quality role players along with the means to bolster and/or supplement that group as desired.

Despite the Dodgers’ regular-season and postseason successes — the team has seven-straight NL West titles and made it to the World Series in 2017 and 2018 — the lack of a ring and the stunning recent NLDS wash-out have left a lingering sense that something more or different could or even should be done. Reporting indicates there’s an internal a desire to shake things up in some manner, though obviously the front office isn’t inclined to reinvent the wheel.

It’s not unlike the sunny malaise experienced by the organization’s forebears in Brooklyn. Those Dodgers had an enormously successful decade without a crown (1945 to 1954) and fell short in the World Series four times in seven years (1947 to 1953). They waited ’til next year until finally breaking through in 1955.

The present-day Dodgers hope it won’t be quite that dramatic when they finally win it all. But there are quite a few more MLB teams and playoff rounds now than there used to be, making it harder to control randomness. That increases the appeal of prioritizing long-term competitiveness — the Nationals’ own recent breakthrough helps demonstrate this — but also perhaps speaks in favor of maximizing those clear chances that do arise to win it all.

The Dodgers have managed to walk an impressive line between long and short-term goals. Still, it hasn’t come together quite yet. With so many pieces already in place, the focus entering the present offseason was on adding true impact talent. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke of having a dozen-player wish list. While the club has made a few targeted investments in buy-low, high-upside pitchers, it has yet to swing a major deal for a star player.

Surely some or most of the L.A. targets are already off the board in one way or another — all of the top free agents have signed, of course — but there’s little doubt that a few remain available. We’ve long heard, especially, that the Dodgers maintain interest in superstars Mookie Betts of the Red Sox and Francisco Lindor of the Indians. Cleveland ace Mike Clevinger is another who has come up in rumors. And it stands to reason there are a few other high-quality players of interest.

Dodgers president/CEO Stan Kasten said earlier this winter that the organization is “laser-focused” on winning a World Series after coming maddeningly close in recent years. “There are guys that we think could be difference makers and we have pursued them, we are continuing to pursue them, when there is an opportunity we will certainly jump at it,” Kasten explained.

The clock is ticking but there’s time left before Spring Training opens. A mid-camp strike is less likely but perhaps not out of the realm of possibility. So … do you think the Dodgers will pull off a blockbuster before the start of the season?

(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Starling Marte Trade

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They’re throwing a Marte party in the desert. The Diamondbacks on Monday acquired center fielder Starling Marte from the Pirates in a blockbuster trade that saw shortstop prospect Liover Peguero, young righty Brennan Malone and $250K in international money go to Pittsburgh in return. Arizona now happens to have the top two Martes in the majors in Starling and Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks’ primary center fielder from 2019 who broke out as a star and will now occupy second base most of the time.

For the Diamondbacks, an 85-win team from last year that’s trying to give the Dodgers a better fight in the NL West, the addition of Starling Marte is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. The D-backs’ previous pickups came via the open market, where they signed left-hander Madison Bumgarner, right fielder Kole Calhoun, relievers Hector Rondon and Junior Guerra, and catcher Stephen Vogt.

There are concerns with Marte’s game, including iffy defensive metrics, a past PED suspension and a career-long aversion to drawing walks. Still, he’s unquestionably one of the most valuable center fielders in the sport. The 31-year-old has accounted for at least 3.0 fWAR in each of his six full seasons, and is coming off his second straight 20-20 effort. Marte posted a .295/.342/.503 line with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases across in 586 trips to the plate.

Of course, we’d be remiss not to mention that Marte’s contract only makes him more appealing from Arizona’s standpoint. He’ll earn a fairly economical $11.5MM this year and could make $12.5MM next season if the Diamondbacks exercise his club option in lieu of a $1MM buyout. Assuming Marte continues his steady production in 2020, picking up that option will be a no-brainer for the team.

In Pittsburgh’s case, Marte’s age, waning control and the Pirates’ rebuilding status all combined to send him out of the Steel City after months of trade rumors. It was an understandable decision on new Pirates general manager Ben Cherington’s part to cash in the Marte chip, though there’s dissatisfaction in Pittsburgh that the team’s ultra-low payroll shrunk even more as a result of the deal. The Pirates could put at least some money back into their roster by finding a Marte replacement before the season, which is Cherington’s plan, but they’re unlikely to find a player of his caliber.

Regardless of how the Pirates’ payroll looks in the wake of Marte’s exit, the club did land a couple promising farmhands in Peguero and Malone. Both 19-year-olds are a ways away from major league opportunities, having not gotten past the low-A level yet, but they were seen as two of Arizona’s most intriguing prospects. Two months ago, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked Peguero fifth in the Diamondbacks’ system, comparing him to former D-back Jean Segura. The flamethrowing Malone checked in at No. 10 on the list, meanwhile, with Longenhagen and McDaniel writing that the 33rd overall pick from last year’s draft has “a mid-rotation starter look.”

Thanks to the youth of Peguero and Malone, we’ll have to wait for a while to see how this trade pans out. At first glance, though, how do you like it for both teams? Weigh in below …

(Arizona poll link for app users)

(Pittsburgh poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Mookie Betts’ Red Sox Future

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Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has been one of multiple superstars involved in trade speculation this offseason, joining the likes of Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant. The Betts rumors got especially interesting Thursday when a report indicated the Red Sox and Padres have discussed a swap centering on the 27-year-old. It doesn’t seem there has been a great deal of traction in those talks, but it’s still interesting that Boston seemingly hasn’t closed the door on parting with its franchise player just weeks from spring training.

A couple years ago, the idea of the Red Sox trading Betts would have come off as preposterous. He was a 10-WAR, AL MVP-winning player in 2018 as the Red Sox steamrolled the competition en route to 108 regular-season wins and a World Series title. Neither Betts nor the Red Sox were close to as good last season, but he was still unquestionably one of the majors’ top performers, slashing .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs and 6.6 fWAR.

If the Red Sox had their druthers, Betts would probably be the guy they’d build around. But Betts has publicly expressed a desire to test the free-agent market a year from now. Betts’ uncertain future beyond this season, in which he’ll earn an arbitration-record $27MM salary, as well as the team’s preference to duck the luxury tax have helped open the door for a trade. And if the Red Sox want to upgrade their farm system in the process (which seems to be the case), there may not be a better place to send Betts than prospect-rich San Diego.

The Padres likely have the prospect capital to make a deal happen, but it will be difficult for them or anyone else to get Betts out of Boston. New chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said just last week that he expects Betts to open 2020 as a member of the Red Sox. In the wake of the latest Betts trade rumors, though, do you believe he’ll still be on the BoSox roster when the new season starts?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Much For Nicholas Castellanos?

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Yet another of this offseason’s best free agents exited the board when the Braves reeled in outfielder Marcell Ozuna on a one-year, $18MM guarantee Tuesday. Many high-profile free agents have earned more money than predicted this winter, but Ozuna’s one of the few standouts whose new deal checks in well south of expectations. For instance, MLBTR forecast in November that the former Marlin and Cardinal would come away with a three-year, $45MM guarantee.

With Ozuna no longer available, fellow outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is now unquestionably the No. 1 free agent in baseball. Those two have been closely linked for months, as they entered the winter as the premier unsigned outfielders and have been connected to some of the same teams via the open market. For what it’s worth, MLBTR originally tabbed Castellanos for a four-year, $58MM deal at the outset of the offseason. And as recently as December, the plurality of MLBTR readers who voted in a poll on Castellanos’ earning power said he’d make $55MM to $70MM.

Now, in the wake of Ozuna’s lighter-than-expected payday, perhaps you’re less bullish on Castellanos’ next contract. Age (28 in March) and a lack of a qualifying offer are working in Castellanos’ favor (Ozuna was stuck with a QO), as is his recent track record of above-average offensive production. On the other hand, Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, initially at third base and then in the outfield, have been written about to death. Furthermore, it’s unclear just how large his market is now. The Braves could have been a fit for him, but they’re out now after signing Ozuna. The Marlins, Diamondbacks and White Sox were part of the Castellanos rumor mill earlier in the offseason, but they’ve addressed their needs in other ways since then. Castellanos was outstanding as a member of the Cubs in the second half of last season, though they’ve shown no willingness to spend a substantial amount on anyone so far this winter. Likewise, the Giants – even though they want to improve their offense – haven’t spent aggressively.

Teams like the Rangers, Cardinals, Reds and some mystery club(s) seem like the most logical suitors for Castellanos at this point. The Rangers have been connected to Castellanos more than anyone else of late, though they reportedly like him more as a first baseman than an outfielder. The Cardinals just lost Ozuna, potentially putting them in the market for a heavy hitter to replace him, but owner Bill DeWitt Jr. indicated this week that they’re all but tapped out from a payroll standpoint. The Reds, though, could arguably still stand to add an established corner outfield bat.

Regardless of where Castellanos plays next, do you expect him to follow in Ozuna’s footsteps and collect a more modest pact than expected? Or will Castellanos eventually become yet another of this offseason’s free agents to cash in big?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Nolan Arenado’s Future

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With almost all high-end free agents having signed since free agency opened in November, the trade market has become the best avenue for securing star-level talent. It’s up in the air whether any standouts will change hands in the coming weeks, granted, but rumors have persisted regarding the likes of MVP-caliber players such as Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts.

In Arenado’s case, Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich came out Monday and admitted he has listened to offers for the all-world third baseman, but no team has made a compelling enough pitch to pry him out of Colorado. As such, the Rockies expect to open 2020 with Arenado as the centerpiece of their roster.

According to Bridich, “we can put this to bed and collectively look forward to the upcoming season and work toward that.” Arenado may have other ideas, though. Shortly after Bridich’s statements became public, the 28-year-old Arenado broke his silence on the constant trade rumors surrounding himself and took aim at the Rockies in the process. Arenado said he feels the Rockies have “disrespected” him, adding that “there’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of.”

Arenado didn’t name names, but the fact that he’s calling out the organization is nonetheless jarring. After all, just before last season, the Rockies signed Arenado to a franchise-record contract extension worth $234MM over seven years. That massive dollar figure is probably one of the reasons they haven’t found a trade to their liking for Arenado yet. Moreover, Arenado’s pact contains an opt-out clause after 2021 – yet another cause for teams not to present an enormous offer to the Rockies for him – as well as full no-trade rights. Of course, if Arenado’s this fed up with high-level members of the Colorado organization, and if it’s true that winning is his top priority (the Rockies didn’t do much of that in 2019, nor do they look likely to contend this year), the no-trade clause may not pose a problem.

So far this winter, the Cardinals, Rangers, Braves, Dodgers and Nationals have all been linked to Arenado in the rumor mill. Aside from the Rangers, each of those teams made the playoffs last year. It stands to reason Arenado would have interest in joining the majority of those teams, but one of them (or another club) will first have to entice the Rockies to give up the “disrespected” face of their franchise. Do you expect that to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Twins?

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No team took a bigger step forward in 2019 than the Twins, who increased their win total from 78 to 101 in a one-year span. They knocked the back-to-back-to-back AL Central-winning Indians off their pedestal in the process, taking the division by a cushy eight games. The Twins did it with a juggernaut offense known as the Bomba Squad – a group that smashed the all-time single-season home run record with 307 during a historically powerful year across baseball. In the end, though, the Twins’ longtime playoff nemesis in the Bronx proved to be their undoing once again when October arrived.

The Yankees continued to haunt the Twins, but there was still plenty to be encouraged about for the latter when its offseason began. The expectation entering the winter was that the Twins would make aggressive upgrades to their pitching staff, which was facing the departures of four free-agent starters in Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez. They wound up keeping Odorizzi and Pineda, though the latter will miss the beginning of the season after incurring a 60-game suspension for a banned substance last September. Those two and Jose Berrios should give the Twins’ rotation a strong foundation when Pineda returns, but questions abound otherwise.

The Twins didn’t come away with a Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner type in free agency, instead reeling in the veteran duo of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on one-year deals. Hill has been absolutely great when healthy. Problem is that he’s an oft-injured soon-to-be 40-year-old who won’t debut until the summertime after undergoing elbow surgery. Bailey’s career was all but left for dead a couple years back, but he did experience a resurgence in 2019, turning back into a viable starter with the Royals and A’s. The rest of the Twins’ rotation possibilities are decidedly less experienced, though there’s promise with the likes of Randy Dobnak, Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer.

The Twins haven’t splurged on expensive starters or relievers (the battle-tested Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard signed affordable deals), but they’ve somehow found a way to assemble an even more intimidating offense. The club that boasted five 30-homer hitters a year ago just found a sixth in ex-Brave Josh Donaldson, whom it added on a four-year, $92MM pact. It’s the largest contract the Twins have given a free agent, but Donaldson seems worth it based on his lengthy track record of excellence.

The Donaldson deal might not look great in a few years, at which point he’ll be in his late 30s, but the Twins can worry about tomorrow when it comes. Today they’re focused on a World Series, and they just might get there with an offense capable of pounding opposing teams into submission. Assuming the baseball itself has less juice than it did last year, the Twins are likely to amass fewer HRs as a team. Still, when the likes of Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver are part of your regular lineup, there’s little doubt you’ll terrorize enemy pitchers.

As frightening as the Twins’ offense looks, the team itself could face more tests within a division that it owned last season. Minnesota went a combined 50-26 against the Indians, White Sox, Royals and Tigers. The Indians should still be a quality team (that’s if they don’t trade Francisco Lindor), and the White Sox are on the upswing after they made a slew of noteworthy acquisitons earlier this winter. Detroit and KC will be at the bottom of the division again, but at least the Tigers have made some effort to improve, including with the pickups of ex-Twins C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop.

While it may be a more competitive AL Central in 2020, the Twins remain the front-runners. The question is: Just how good do you think they’ll be?

(Poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Pick The Astros’ Next Manager

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Dropping A.J. Hinch wasn’t just a momentous occasion for the Astros. It also created an entirely unexpected opportunity for some as-yet-unknown skipper-to-be. The keys to an extremely talented Houston roster are lying on the dugout bench, waiting to be claimed.

Astros owner Jim Crane will be looking for a steady manager who can both guide the players and put a trustworthy face on the organization as it navigates choppy waters. It’s a tough and somewhat unusual gig, at least at the outset, but you can bet there’ll be no shortage of interest.

We’ve already seen an initial slate of candidates. It’s about what you’d expect.

The ’Stros will consider current bench coach Joe Espada along with former big leaguers Raul Ibanez and Will Venable. Espada is familiar and already under contract. But his presence in 2018 may cause some problems. While we don’t have any indication what (if any) role he played in the team’s sign-stealing efforts at that time, it’d certainly raise some questions and would not really represent the clean slate that Crane purports to seek. It’s not yet clear whether the latter two names will really be available at all: the former has spurned interest from other clubs previously while the latter is slated to play a significant role on the Cubs’ staff.

Most of the attention is sure to focus on the other possibilities. It makes sense, at first glance, for the Astros to bring in a highly experienced skipper. No surprise, then, to see Dusty Baker, Buck Showalter, and Bruce Bochy listed as possibilities. It isn’t really evident whether Bochy would have interest in jumping back in the saddle; he has indicated he would prefer at least a one-year respite after wrapping up his tenure with the Giants. But Baker and Showalter would no doubt love a shot at driving the Astros bus. Jeff Banister is also said to be of interest to the Houston organization. He has much less experience at the helm than the other three former managers but did spend a few years with the cross-state, division-rival Rangers.

We’re just at the outset of the search, though it’s expected to move quickly. From the names we’ve seen named already, who do you think the Astros ought to hire? (Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Will Mets Fire Carlos Beltran?

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The Astros’ sign-stealing shenanigans from their World Series-winning 2017 campaign have already taken down two prominent members of that team’s staff this week. Houston fired manager A.J. Hinch on Monday after Major League Baseball issued him a one-year suspension. Boston then canned skipper Alex Cora, formerly Hinch’s right-hand man and someone soon to receive harsh punishment from MLB, on Tuesday.

Check out our latest video on Beltran, as well as the Astros’ and Mets’ managerial vacancies (link for app users):

This scandal, one of the biggest in the history of baseball, may not be done taking down high-profile figures. Now the proverbial sword of Damocles is hanging over the head of yet another manager. This time it’s the Mets’ Carlos Beltran, who played for the Astros in 2017. According to commissioner Rob Manfred, Beltran discussed with teammates how to “improve on decoding opposing teams’ signs and communicating the signs to the batter.”

Beltran was part of the league’s investigation, initially claiming no knowledge of the Astros’ scheme before admitting there was wrongdoing on the team’s part. Nevertheless, Manfred elected against punishing Beltran or any of the other players from the 2017 Astros.

Manfred may not have come down on Beltran, but the Mets might not be as kind to the 42-year-old potential Hall of Famer. Even though the Mets just hired Beltran as a first-time manager a little over two months ago, his job already appears to be in jeopardy. It’s a 180 for a club whose GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, said of Beltran in November: “Anything that happened, happened with another organization, with Houston. I have no idea if anything did or did not, but at this point I don’t see any reason why this is a Mets situation.”

Van Wagenen once called Beltran “trustworthy,” but the Mets’ confidence in him may be fading just weeks after his hiring and weeks before spring training opens. Furthermore, as Tim Britton of The Athletic notes, this is “an especially image-conscious team.”Beltran’s presence could be problematic for a franchise that’s always under the microscope, then, and now it’s possible his run as their manager will end before it’s truly able to start.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Josh Donaldson Signing

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After a lengthy and complicating matchmaking process, the Twins have reportedly come away with elite veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s a momentous occasion for the Minnesota organization, which is looking to fend off the Indians and White Sox to repeat as AL Central champ.

Though a big strike for Donaldson wasn’t necessarily the club’s very top choice, it became a priority when righty Zack Wheeler decided to head to the Phillies. The Donaldson contract is quite a different proposition in many regards: he’s an older position player, while Wheeler is a younger pitcher. But both players come with similar mixes of lofty ceilings and fairly significant risk factors. And they’ll play for generally equivalent money, with the far senior Donaldson receiving one less guranteed season.

Guaranteeing four years and $92MM to a 34-year-old player is virtually without precedent. As we recently explored, it’s an expansion of the commitments we’ve seen of late to other high-end older players. But the Twins are doing it with eyes wide open. And Donaldson is more than just a high-quality veteran.

If Donaldson can stay healthy and hold back father time just a bit, there’s good reason to hope for massive production. He posted a 132 wRC+ last year and will add yet more pop to an already potent lineup. And Donaldson was somewhere between good and excellent with the glove, depending upon whom you ask. That allows the Twins to unlock yet more value from this signing, as they’ll improve their overall glovework by shifting Miguel Sano over to first base.

That said, there’ll always be some level of trepidation regarding Donaldson’s age and recent history of leg issues. 34 in September, Donaldson may not have lost much to this point. But it’s tougher to overcome the physical ailments that do arise and we have seen plenty of players run into relatively steep declines. Of at least as much concern is the track record from the two seasons prior to his platform campaign. While he was healthy in, Donaldson was limited to 165 total contests over 2017-18 owing mostly to a lingering calf injury.

So … how do you grade this signing from the Twins’ perspective? (Poll link for app users.)

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