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MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

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The Braves made a surprising decision this week, optioning both Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett. That takes the duo out of consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation. Atlanta’s top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is settled, but the final slot now looks as if it’ll go to someone previously expected to open the year in the minors.

With injuries to Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard keeping them out of the season-opening mix, Elder and Anderson had seemed the favorites for the last rotation spot. Instead, it now seems the Braves will turn to a pitcher with no MLB experience out of the gate. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd look as if they’re battling for the final spot.

Jared Shuster

The 24-year-old Shuster was Atlanta’s first-round pick out of Wake Forest in 2020. He split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett, working to a 3.29 ERA in 139 1/3 innings. He punched out 26.2% of batters faced compared to a modest 6.9% walk rate overall. Shuster’s strikeout numbers dropped precipitously after a midseason jump to Triple-A, however. He’d fanned 30% of opponents in 17 appearances with Mississippi but that mark fell to 19.4% over 10 outings for the Stripers.

Baseball America considers Shuster the #3 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet credits him with a plus changeup and above-average control. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and scouts peg his slider as a fringe-average pitch. Shuster has thrown 10 2/3 innings this spring, allowing only one run with 16 strikeouts and two walks.

Dylan Dodd

Dodd, also 24, was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2021. An underslot senior signee coming out of Southeast Missouri State, Dodd moved across three minor league levels in his first full professional season. He started 16 games with High-A Rome and nine for Mississippi before closing out the ’22 campaign with one appearance in Gwinnett. The left-hander soaked up 142 innings over the three levels, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage while only walking 5.3% of opponents.

Ranked the #6 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, Dodd has a similar pitchability profile as Shuster. His fastball also sits in the low-90s and he leans heavily on a pair of advanced breaking pitches in his changeup and slider. He’s an excellent strike-thrower who’s generally regarded as a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Dodd has tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings in exhibition play, punching out 11 without handing out any free passes.

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The book on Shuster and Dodd is fairly similar. They’re both advanced left-handers with strong secondary stuff and control to drive the profile despite middling velocity. They’re each recent college draftees without a ton of professional experience but already in their mid-20s. Both pitchers are having excellent showings in Grapefruit League play, apparently vaulting themselves past Elder and Anderson on the immediate depth chart. Neither is yet on the 40-man roster but Atlanta has a vacancy after losing Dennis Santana on waivers last month and could clear more room by placing Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa on the 60-day injured list.

It stands to reason both Shuster and Dodd will make their MLB debuts at some point this year. One of the duo now figures to break camp with the big league club and assume a key role from the season’s outset. Who will get the nod?

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Be Braves' Fifth Starter To Open The Season?
Jared Shuster 68.49% (3,049 votes)
Dylan Dodd 22.89% (1,019 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 8.63% (384 votes)
Total Votes: 4,452

 

Poll: Will The Yankees Trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa Before Opening Day?

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From the moment the Yankees originally acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins, the expectation has been that he’d serve as a bridge to top infield prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. At the time of the trade — which also saw Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt go the Bronx while sending Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela to Minnesota — Kiner-Falefa had two years of club control remaining. That generally aligned with the timetables for both Peraza and Volpe, allowing them to develop in ’22 while Kiner-Falefa held down shortstop before perhaps moving into a utility role.

That’s generally how it’s played out. Peraza impressed in an 18-game cup of coffee late in the 2022 season and entered camp with a chance to break the Opening Day roster as the Yankees’ everyday shortstop. Volpe entered spring training as a longer shot to make the Opening Day roster for a variety of reasons. He’s a year younger than Peraza, has just 99 plate appearances above the Double-A level and is not currently on the 40-man roster. Still, he’s turned in an impressive spring training and begun to see some time at second base, further planting the seed that he could be in the Majors alongside Peraza sooner than later — certainly at some point in 2023.

The looming ascension of both Peraza and Volpe is enough to cloud Kiner-Falefa’s role on the team on its own, but last year’s strong debut from the versatile Oswaldo Cabrera only adds to the pile-up of infield talent. The switch-hitting 24-year-old worked primarily in the outfield last year but has experience at all four infield spots. After hitting .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances as a 23-year-old rookie, he’s staked his claim to a spot on this year’s roster as well.

The Yankees were aware of this depth but still saw value in holding onto Kiner-Falefa at a generally reasonable $6MM price point for his final season of club control. Spring injuries are always possible, and there was certainly a scenario where any combination of Peraza, Volpe and/or Cabrera got to spring training and looked vastly overmatched at the plate. That hasn’t really been the case, and it’s made Kiner-Falefa’s role on the 2023 club look a bit more questionable — particularly with Gleyber Torres still penciled in at second base and Donaldson returning at the hot corner.

To that end, the Yankees have begun getting Kiner-Falefa some reps in the outfield. The 27-year-old said just this morning that he expects to play center field in Friday’s Grapefruit League game (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). With Harrison Bader out for the first several weeks of the season due to an oblique strain, Kiner-Falefa could bolster his value to the Yankees if he looks capable of handling some reps on the grass, be it in center field or in left. Aaron Judge or Aaron Hicks can both handle all three outfield spots, so strictly excelling in center isn’t necessarily a requirement for Kiner-Falefa.

That said, it’s hard not to recognize the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade coming together at some point. The Yankees, after all, have been loath to cross the fourth and final luxury tax barrier. Their backs are right up against that threshold at the moment, and dealing Kiner-Falefa would trim $6MM off that luxury bill, creating some breathing room that could be a key for the front office this summer when the trade deadline is looming.

Beyond that, Kiner-Falefa is still a useful utility option for a team that perhaps doesn’t have as much infield depth as the Yankees — and perhaps even a starting-caliber option on a handful of clubs. Defensive metrics are split on his glovework at shortstop, but he can at the very least handle the position and has won a Gold Glove at third base. He’s a capable second baseman, has experience catching and could be an emergency option behind the dish, and now he’s at least familiarizing himself with the outfield.

At the plate, Kiner-Falefa isn’t a standout but can at least provide a solid batting average and get on base at a roughly league-average clip. He lacks power but also has plus bat-to-ball skills. The .269/.316/.348 slash he’s authored over the past three seasons is about 14% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+. It’s not good, but Kiner-Falefa is far from a black hole at the plate and has value with the glove and on the bases, where he’s gone 42-for-51 (82.4%) in stolen bases over the past two seasons.

Kiner-Falefa’s fit with the Yankees isn’t as clean as it was before Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera were MLB-ready or extremely close to it, but there’s probably still a role for him if Volpe opens the season in Triple-A. Even if the Yankees hold onto Kiner-Falefa, however, he could be pushed out of the picture by midseason if all of Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera remain healthy. A trade at some point, whether this summer or even before Opening Day, shouldn’t come as a shock — especially considering the aforementioned luxury-tax benefits a deal would bring about.

The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner opined in this morning’s mailbag column that he thinks the Yankees will explore a Kiner-Falefa trade between now and Opening Day. That certainly doesn’t mean a deal will come together, but it’s a good indicator of what could be on the horizon with regard to the versatile infielder’s future in the Bronx.

What do MLBTR readers think?

Will the Yankees trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa before Opening Day?
No, they'll hang onto the depth and perhaps explore a deal midseason. 60.15% (3,339 votes)
Yes, they'll find a way to make a deal. 39.85% (2,212 votes)
Total Votes: 5,551

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

—

Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

Who do you think will win the AL Central?

Who will win the AL Central in 2023?
Guardians 40.88% (4,138 votes)
Twins 26.70% (2,703 votes)
White Sox 22.42% (2,269 votes)
Royals 5.02% (508 votes)
Tigers 4.98% (504 votes)
Total Votes: 10,122

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?

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The AL West, despite being home to the reigning World Series champions, figures to be among the more competitive divisions in the sport in 2023. According to the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs, it is the only division with four teams that have a better than 10% chance to win the division title in the coming campaign. All five clubs in the division have seen significant changes to their rosters over the course of the offseason. With Spring Training now in full swing and the heavy-lifting of the offseason largely done at this point, it let’s take a look at the AL West’s five clubs in search of the division’s next champion.

Houston Astros (106-56 in 2022)

En route to their 2022 World Series championship, the Astros had a phenomenal season, with AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander leading the pitching staff while each of Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman received MVP votes for their work in the starting lineup. The hitting corps didn’t change very drastically during the offseason, though they did upgrade at first base by replacing departing free agent Yuli Gurriel with longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu. The pitching staff saw more significant change, as Verlander departed for New York while Houston was unable to sign a proper replacement for their staff ace over the offseason.

While Houston lost Verlander to free agency this offseason, the rotation still figures to have plenty of capable arms, with Framber Valdez set to take over as the new staff ace while youngster Cristian Javier looks to follow up on a breakout campaign in 2022. Both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have tantalizing upside, though each comes with question marks, and Jose Urquidy can be expected to be a reliable back-end starter for the Astros once again as well. One catalyst for Houston’s rotation could be top prospect Hunter Brown. Brown, who will play this season at age 24, dominated in his big league debut at the end of last season, posting a microscopic 0.89 ERA that was backed by a fantastic 1.98 FIP in 20 1/3 innings of work, though only 12 of those innings came as a starter. The young righty seems to be in prime position to make the Opening Day rotation with McCullers expected to start the season on the shelf.

Seattle Mariners (90-72 in 2022)

The Mariners ended the league’s longest playoff drought last season, earning a wild card berth and advancing to the ALDS before falling to Houston in a 3 game sweep. Seattle looks to improve on that performance in 2023, as the club added Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock to the lineup this offseason and expects to get a full season from ace Luis Castillo, who was acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline last year. That said, the club did lose some key players over the offseason as well: Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier departed via free agency while Erik Swanson, Kyle Lewis, Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro were among the players who departed in the club’s various trades this offseason.

Minimal prospect talent is expected to impact the big league club this season in Seattle, leaving the Mariners to rely on their aforementioned external additions and improvements from their returning players if they are to catch the Astros in the standings. Former top prospect Jarred Kelenic should get some run in left field to open the season in order to prove he has returned to form after struggling to this point in his big league career, while Robbie Ray will surely be looking to recapture the magic of his 2021 Cy Young season. Meanwhile, other players such as youngsters Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby as well as breakout catcher Cal Raleigh merely need to repeat their strong 2022 campaigns in order to contribute to a winning Mariners club this season.

Los Angeles Angels (73-89 in 2022)

The 2023 season stands as the last one during which the Angels will have two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani under club control, as he is set to hit free agency following the coming campaign. Given the urgency of the club’s situation, it’s no wonder than GM Perry Minasian was aggressive in his attempts to supplement the roster with quality depth. He appears to have been largely successful in that endeavor, having added Tyler Anderson, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez to the pitching staff while supplementing the lineup with Gio Urshela, Brandon Drury, and Hunter Renfroe. Those pitching deals rebuilt the back of a Halos bullpen that lost Raisel Iglesias in trade to the Braves last offseason while supplementing the rotation with a durable, mid-rotation starter. That being said, the offensive additions were the main attraction of Anaheim’s offseason, as they transformed what has for years amounted to something of a stars and scrubs lineup by providing manager Phil Nevin with the quality depth necessary to weather injuries to the club’s many stars.

Those stars, of course, will remain the focus of the club, as Ohtani and Mike Trout stand as perhaps the two best players in the entire sport while Anthony Rendon will look to live up to his $245MM contract after struggling with injuries in recent years. Still, other players emerged as quality regulars in 2022 as well, including Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo. Bounce-back seasons from any of Max Stassi, Jared Walsh, or David Fletcher would improve the club’s depth even more, to say nothing of the possibility that longtime top prospect Jo Adell finally lives up to his potential. Overall, there’s certainly reason to think this might finally be the year that Trout and Ohtani suit up together in the postseason, even though the club enters the season looking up at many of its division rivals in terms of playoff odds.

Texas Rangers (68-94 in 2022)

The Rangers had a second consecutive explosive offseason this winter as they completely transformed their big league rotation by adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi as starting options while retaining Martin Perez. The hitting corps stayed largely the same after Corey Seager and Marcus Semien joined the club last offseason, though Texas did add Robbie Grossman to their outfield mix and expects to get contributions from top prospect Josh Jung this year at third base.

With a solid bullpen that features Brock Burke, Jose LeClerc, and new addition Will Smith among its back-end options, the Rangers figure to be set up well in that regard. The lineup should be decent, if not awe-inspiring, as it Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia in addition to Seager and Semien, while Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim form an interesting duo behind the plate and Leody Taveras figures to contribute in center upon his return from an oblique strain later this year. The answer to just how far this Rangers club will be able to go surely lies in the health and production of the reconstructed rotation, which added the most dominant pitcher in baseball in deGrom and plenty of upside in Heaney and Eovaldi, though all three pitchers have struggled badly with injuries at various points throughout their careers. Should that front three remain healthy and effective, though, this Rangers team could certainly pitch its way into the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Oakland Athletics (60-102 in 2022)

The A’s were among the worst teams in baseball last season, and there’s little reason for fans in Oakland to have more optimism about the coming campaign. After sending Frankie Montas to the Yankees at the trade deadline last year, the A’s saw the departures of catcher Sean Murphy, starter Cole Irvin, and reliever A.J. Puk in trades this offseason while the club added young, unproven talent such as Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Kyle Muller, and Freddy Tarnok. Some quality players do remain on the roster, however, as the A’s have retained each of Ramon Laureano, Shea Langeliers, Paul Blackburn, Tony Kemp, and Seth Brown to this point.

Oakland also added a few veteran options in free agency during the offseason, picking up Jace Peterson, Aledmys Diaz, Jesus Aguiler, and Trevor May throughout the offseason. The highlight of the A’s offseason seems to be Shintaro Fujinami, who was posted to the MLB this offseason by the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers. Fujinami has tantalizing stuff, including a fastball that can touch over 100 mph, but has struggled with his control throughout his career. Even if the A’s are able to unlock Fujinami’s potential, however, it seems extremely unlikely that the club will be able to compete with the four clubs its looking up at in the AL West.

_______________________________

While the Astros, as the reigning champions of not only the AL West but MLB itself, appear to be the favorite entering the 2023 season, each of the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers have plausible paths to not only contention but, perhaps, even the AL West crown headed into 2023. Though the same can’t be said for the Athletics, a four-team division race is sure to bring about excitement in the division all throughout the year.

What do you think? Will the Astros recapture the AL West crown for the sixth straight full season? Will the Mariners take another step forward and win their first AL West title since 2001? Will the Angels or Rangers leapfrog their competitors after a big offseason? Or will the Athletics surprise the baseball world against all odds? Let us know in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL West In 2023
Astros 52.32% (4,348 votes)
Mariners 23.59% (1,960 votes)
Angels 11.71% (973 votes)
Rangers 7.65% (636 votes)
Athletics 4.73% (393 votes)
Total Votes: 8,310

Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 World Baseball Classic?

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The 2023 World Baseball Classic kicks off tonight, technically Wednesday locally in Taiwan but the time difference will make it late Tuesday night for those watching in the Western Hemisphere. This will be the first time the tournament is held since 2017, as the pandemic threw the tournament off its planned four-year schedule and led to the postponement of the 2021 edition.

The first two tournaments in WBC history were won by Japan, followed by the Dominican Republic in 2013 and the United States in 2017. Puerto Rico was the runner-up in each of the past two tournaments, while South Korea and Cuba also have second-place finishes. Venezuela and the Netherlands have also made it as far as the semifinals.

This tournament figures to be perhaps the most star-studded edition thus far, as many of the top MLB players steered clear of previous iterations of the WBC. That doesn’t appear to be the case this year, with many marquee players suiting up. The American team features Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts and plenty of other All-Stars. The DR will have Manny Machado, Julio Rodríguez and Juan Soto. Shohei Ohtani is playing for Japan, Freddie Freeman for Canada, Francisco Lindor for Puerto Rico, Jose Altuve for Venezuela, Xander Bogaerts for the Netherlands, Tommy Edman for Korea, Julio Urías for Mexico, Joc Pederson for Israel and Vinnie Pasquantino for Italy. For the first time, the Cuban team will feature MLB players, with Luis Robert and Yoán Moncada coming aboard. There will also be plenty of intriguing players who have yet to make the jump to North America, such as Munetaka Murakami, Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee. The full rosters can be found here.

Many outlets consider either USA or DR to be the favorites, but there are many other star-studded rosters. Perhaps we’ll get a crazy upset from a Czech Republic team that’s manned by firefighters, real estate agents and school teachers and was recently profiled by David Waldstein of The New York Times.

What do you think? Who’s going to win it all this time? Have you say in the poll below! (Link to poll)

Who will win the 2023 World Baseball Classic?
United States 38.16% (3,386 votes)
Dominican Republic 29.25% (2,595 votes)
Japan 12.89% (1,144 votes)
Puerto Rico 4.45% (395 votes)
Venezuela 2.45% (217 votes)
Canada 2.04% (181 votes)
Israel 1.56% (138 votes)
Mexico 1.54% (137 votes)
Cuba 1.26% (112 votes)
Czech Republic 1.19% (106 votes)
Netherlands 1.03% (91 votes)
Nicaragua 0.83% (74 votes)
Korea 0.73% (65 votes)
Great Britain 0.56% (50 votes)
Italy 0.55% (49 votes)
Chinese Taipei 0.46% (41 votes)
Australia 0.37% (33 votes)
China 0.24% (21 votes)
Colombia 0.21% (19 votes)
Panama 0.21% (19 votes)
Total Votes: 8,873

MLBTR Poll: Will Bryan Reynolds’ Situation Be Resolved Before Opening Day?

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Bryan Reynolds trade rumors have lingered over the offseason, even as there’s been nothing to indicate the Pirates have gotten seriously into discussions with any other club. As an All-Star player on a rebuilding team, Reynolds has drawn plenty of trade attention over the last couple years. The Bucs have steadfastly maintained a high asking price.

Against the backdrop of speculation has been the seeming stalemate between Reynolds and the Pirates in extension negotiations. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported over the weekend the club had offered $80MM over six years. With Reynolds eligible for arbitration through 2025, such a deal would’ve bought out three free agent seasons. According to Mackey, Reynolds’ camp had countered at $134MM over eight seasons. With discussions having stalled out, the 28-year-old requested a trade in December.

The Pirates attested that wouldn’t affect their asking price. That has seemingly borne out in the lack of substantive trade rumors over the nearly three months since then. Reynolds is back in Pirates camp. Both sides have expressed a willingness to reopen talks about an extension that could keep him in the Steel City for the long haul, though as of Saturday, the team hadn’t made a new offer.

The trade market has been dormant for the majority of the offseason. It’s entirely possible no swaps of significant note are made before Opening Day, although there are surely still plenty of teams that’d love to install Reynolds in their lineup. Teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox look likely to roll the dice on unproven options in center field. The Yankees, Braves and Rangers all have a handful of veterans for left field but explored more stable solutions at times this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Bucs and Reynolds’ camp at CAA Sports figure to touch base at some point over the coming weeks to see if they can bridge that reported $54MM gap. The deeper Reynolds gets into his arbitration seasons, the likelier it’d seem to become he prices himself out of the Pirates’ range. Perhaps they’re at that point already — even the organization’s $80MM offer would’ve represented a franchise record investment and was well shy of the asking price — but it seems each side is still amenable to negotiating despite Reynolds’ prior trade request.

Opening Day is a little over a month away. Spring Training is the most common time of year for teams and players to hammer out extensions. That’s often the result of a player setting an Opening Day deadline for those discussions, but Reynolds indicated over the weekend he had no such cutoff.

Will there be a resolution in the coming weeks, or will the uncertainty regarding the Bucs’ star carry into the regular season? Are the Pirates going to make a move with Reynolds before Opening Day: either by pulling off the long-speculated blockbuster or keeping him on a franchise-record contract?

(poll link for app users)

What Will Happen With Bryan Reynolds Before Opening Day?
Neither; he'll enter the season on his arbitration contract. 80.14% (4,549 votes)
Trade. 11.19% (635 votes)
Extension. 8.67% (492 votes)
Total Votes: 5,676

 

Poll: Who Signs First, Jurickson Profar Or Michael Wacha?

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Essentially from the moment MLB Trade Rumors published our annual top 50 free agents list, players immediately started flying off the board.  While the last few non-lockout offseasons saw a slowed free agent market, many of the biggest names of the 2022-23 class had already found new teams by the start of January…give or take Carlos Correa’s three-team saga, of course.  Now that Andrew Chafin has agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks, only two players from that top-50 listing remain unsigned as Spring Training dawns: Jurickson Profar (ranked 33rd) and Michael Wacha (41st).

Profar voluntarily chose to test the open market, as he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres.  Entering the third and final year of that deal, Profar took a $1MM buyout rather than the $7.5MM owed to him in 2023, thus making a $6.5MM bet that he could find a longer-term and more lucrative deal in free agency.  MLBTR agreed, projecting Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal.

Such a contract has yet to emerge for Profar, despite plenty of interest.  The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers, and Orioles have all been linked to Profar at various points this offseason, though Houston and Boston have seemingly already addressed needs in left field.  The other reported suitors have somewhat clearer needs in left field, even if in-house options abound for all four teams.  Other factors may also be at play for particular teams — for example, the Yankees are very close to surpassing the top luxury tax threshold ($293MM), and reportedly don’t want to hit that highest penalty line.

As Profar approaches his 30th birthday, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever live up to his former top-prospect status, yet he provided solid numbers in three of the last five seasons.  Of course, that isn’t the most consistent track record, and Profar’s .241/.326/.403 slash line over 2384 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season works out to a barely above-average 101 wRC+.  While Profar had 110 wRC+ in 2022 and his 2.5 fWAR was the best of his career, this recent performance might not be enough to overcome a perception that is only a “good” player, and teams may not be willing to give a multi-year deal for just “good” (and somewhat unpredictable) performance going forward.

It can be assumed that Profar is at least looking to top that $6.5MM salary he left on the table in San Diego, but his current contract demands are unknown.  It could be that Profar is open to a one-year contract — or one guaranteed year with an option for 2024 — at an average annual value slightly higher than $6.5MM, so he can at least recoup that money and then test the market again next winter.  Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is well-known both for waiting until deep into an offseason to find an acceptable deal for his clients, and for coming up with creative contracts that include flexibility for both the player and the team.

There is a bit more information about Wacha’s demands, since as of two weeks ago, the right-hander and his reps at CAA Sports were reportedly looking for a two-year contract in the range of $30MM.  This is well above the two-year, $16MM deal that MLBTR projected for Wacha’s next deal, though prices for starting pitchers have mostly skyrocketed this winter.

The Orioles, Twins, and Angels have all reportedly had interest in Wacha this offseason, though Minnesota’s trade for Pablo Lopez might have sealed up the last spot in the rotation.  For Baltimore, Wacha has been on the Orioles’ radar both before and after their signing of Kyle Gibson, a similar veteran arm meant to provide innings and experience within the young O’s rotation.  The Angels were the most recent of the three clubs to check in (in early February), and while Los Angeles has already signed Tyler Anderson to bolster the starter ranks, the Angels need a particular amount of depth given their likely deployment of a six-man rotation.

As with Profar, Wacha might fit into that “good but not great” category due to a lack of consistency.  After posting shaky results from 2019-21, Wacha seemingly got back on track by posting a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2022.  The righty did a good job of limiting hard contact and he continued his recent trend of limiting walks, but the rest of his Statcast sheet wasn’t overly impressive, including a 20.2% strikeout rate that was well below league average.  Wacha also spent about seven weeks on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, which is of particular concern given his past history of shoulder injuries.

Despite these drawbacks, Wacha’s market is boosted by the simple cliche of “you can never have enough pitching.”  Teams with seemingly full rotations might prefer to sign Wacha and push a younger arm further down the depth chart, or it is quite possible a new club might emerge as a suitor should a pitching injury arise during Spring Training.  That same logic also extends to Profar, as a team’s outfield plans might suddenly be altered if a lineup regular gets hurt.

Which of these free agents do you think will be the next to sign?

(poll link for app users)

Which Player Will Sign First?
Michael Wacha 61.98% (3,533 votes)
Jurickson Profar 38.02% (2,167 votes)
Total Votes: 5,700

Poll: Can The Rockies Play .500 This Year?

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The Rockies nabbed a Wild Card spot in two straight years, getting into the postseason in 2017 and 2018. However, the past four years have been a struggle. They slipped to 71-91 in 2019, followed that up with a 26-34 showing in the shortened 2020 season and then won 74 and 68 games in the past two years.

Despite that rough slide, owner Dick Monfort is maintaining external optimism. “We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball,” he recently said.

Suddenly finding an extra 10-15 wins would likely have to come from internal improvements, as the roster hasn’t changed much relative to last year. Their most notable free agent departures included Carlos Estévez, José Iglesias, Chad Kuhl and Alex Colomé. One other name on that list was José Ureña, though he was eventually re-signed and will be back with the club this year. Garrett Hampson also departed the roster when he was non-tendered, as did Chad Smith and Connor Joe via small trades.

The Rockies have also made a few additions to the roster, of course, but mostly younger players and a few relievers. Infielder/outfielder Nolan Jones, who has 28 games of MLB experience, was acquired from the Guardians. Connor Seabold and his six career starts were acquired for cash considerations or a player to be named later after he was designated for assignment by the Red Sox. The bullpen got a few new faces when Brent Suter and Nick Mears were claimed off waivers and free agent Pierce Johnson was signed to a one-year deal.

Those changes will all have impacts, though none jump out as franchise-altering moves like the Kris Bryant signing from a year ago. A healthy Bryant is probably the club’s best chance at improving their fortunes, as he was only able to play 42 games last year. He mashed when on the field, hitting .306/.376/.475 for a wRC+ of 125, and the Rockies would surely love to have that kind of production over a larger sample.

The outfield mix will have holdovers in Charlie Blackmon, Yonathan Daza, Randal Grichuk but could also get a boost if Jones breaks out. He came up as a third base prospect but moved to the outfield since Cleveland had José Ramírez at the hot corner. The Rockies will likely keep him on the grass since they have Ryan McMahon at third. Jones has hit very well in the minors despite a high strikeout rate. In 655 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s been punched out at a 28.4% rate but drawn walks at a 13.7% clip, hit 22 home runs and stole 14 bases. His .252/.361/.443 slash line at that level amounts to a 117 wRC+. He didn’t quite reach that level of production in his first taste of the majors, but it was a very brief debut. Sean Bouchard could also be a factor here, as he hit .300/.404/.635 for a 150 wRC+ in Triple-A last year. He kept it going in a 27-game MLB debut by hitting .297/.454/.500 for a wRC+ of 158, though he won’t sustain a 21.6% walk rate or .404 batting average on balls in play.

On the infield, McMahon, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers will still be around. The biggest change relative to last year will be that Iglesias has departed and prospect Ezequiel Tovar has seemingly been given the job. It’s an aggressive move given his youth and inexperience. He began last year in Double-A and crushed it, hitting .318/.386/.545 for a wRC+ of 153 over 66 games. A hip/groin injury kept him out of action for all of July and August, but the club promoted him to Triple-A when he was healthy in September. After just five games there, he got promoted to the big leagues for nine games as the season was winding down. Tovar is considered one of the top prospects in the league but he’s just 21 years old and has only 14 games played above the Double-A level.

Another X-factor on the infield could be Michael Toglia, who is primarily a first baseman though he’s also played a bit of right field. With Cron still under contract for one more year, he’s not being relied upon in the same way as Tovar, but he could force his way into more playing time or fill in for an injury. His MLB debut last year didn’t go well, but he hit 30 home runs in 114 minor league games for a batting line of .249/.341/.510 and a wRC+ of 124. Elehuris Montero could also be in play here, as the corner infielder hit .310/.392/.541 in Triple-A last year, though he also struggled in his first taste of the majors.

At the catcher position, Elias Díaz will be looking for a bounceback after his 18 home runs in 2021 were cut in half to nine last year. He also walked less and struck out more, leading to a .228/.281/.368 batting line and 67 wRC+, a drop from 91 the year before. His defense was also graded far worse, leading to a wide swing from posting 1.6 fWAR two years ago but -1.4 last year.

In the rotation, Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland will be back at the front, but it gets murky after that. Antonio Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, meaning he could return soon, but that remains to be seen. Ureña seems to have laid claim to another spot, though the last time he posted an ERA under 5.00 was 2018. Austin Gomber could be in the mix, though he posted a 5.56 ERA last year. Seabold has some good Triple-A results but has struggled in the majors thus far and will have to get acclimated to the Coors Field experience. Other options on the 40-man include Peter Lambert, Ryan Feltner, Ryan Rolison and Noah Davis.

In the bullpen, the Rockies will be without Estévez, who has been a quietly effective reliever of late. His triple-digit fastball helped him post a 3.94 ERA over the past two seasons, not too shabby for a guy who takes the mound at altitude half the time. Daniel Bard will still be present in the closer’s role, but the club will try to replace Estévez with Johnson, Suter, Mears and Dinelson Lamet, whom they grabbed off waivers in August of last year.

A few things will need to go right for the Rockies to make a huge jump in the win column. A healthy and productive season from Bryant would be great, as would a return to form from Díaz and a healthy Senzatela. Younger players like Tovar, Jones, Toglia, Montero and Bouchard taking steps forward would be a huge help. But the pitching staff has big question marks and there’s also the matter of what other clubs have done. The Padres have added Xander Bogaerts and various other players in order to build off their strong 2022. The Giants didn’t make a huge addition but added several strong players such as Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. The Dodgers have been fairly quiet but are still loaded with talent and coming off a 111-win season. The Diamondbacks have tons of exciting young prospects and a big surge seems possible. 2023 will have a more balanced schedule, meaning the Rockies will play outside their division more often, but most American League teams are in good shape, as are the clubs in the NL East. The NL Central is seen by many as weaker, but the Cubs and Pirates have both made efforts to be better than they were in 2022.

What do you think? Is Monfort right? Can this club play .500 ball? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Are The Rockies A .500 Team?
Not even close. 54.50% (3,249 votes)
I'd put them a bit below. 35.58% (2,121 votes)
I think they're right on the line. 7.62% (454 votes)
Probably a bit better. 1.48% (88 votes)
Way better. 0.82% (49 votes)
Total Votes: 5,961

Poll: Will The Mariners Trade Chris Flexen?

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Early in the offseason, it looked as though there was a good chance the Mariners would move one of their two candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. The quartet of Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby create a standout set of options in slots one through four, and Seattle has a pair of solid back-of-the-rotation options in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Behind that duo, prospects like Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Taylor Dollard have all reached Double-A and enjoyed success there, placing them within reasonable proximity of MLB readiness. Miller, in particular, cracked the back of some top-100 lists this year, landing 74th on Kiley McDaniel’s list at ESPN, 98th at MLB.com and 100th at Baseball America.

It’s a strong collection of depth, and the presence of Miller, Hancock and Dollard seemed like it could be enough to sway the Mariners to move one of Flexen or Gonzales. Flexen, as a free agent next offseason* with a palatable $8MM salary — compared to the $18.5MM still owed to Gonzales through 2024 — seemed to be the likeliest candidate. That’s true not only from an on-paper standpoint, but also when considering that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto plainly acknowledged in November that he’d been receiving trade interest in Flexen at the annual general managers’ meetings.

(*=There seems to be some continued confusion regarding this, as Flexen won’t have six years of Major League service time after the season, but MLBTR has confirmed that he will become a free agent next winter, as is the case with the vast majority of KBO/NPB signees whose free agent contracts expire.)

The Mariners, however, were never going to give Flexen away just to shed his salary, and the fact that he remains with the club is a clear indicator that another club has yet to put forth an offer Dipoto & Co. felt was commensurate with Flexen’s value. The extent of that value is subjective, but Flexen would be a clear upgrade to the back of several teams’ rotations.

Since returning from a successful one-year stint in the Korea Baseball Organization, he’s pitched to a 3.66 ERA in 317 2/3 innings. Granted, his 92.4 mph average fastball and 16.5% strikeout rate are below average, but Flexen also has sharp command (6.8% walk rate). He keeps lefties in check with the help of an above-average changeup and has generally done a good job keeping the ball in the yard since his MLB return. Flexen has benefited slightly from a pitcher-friendly home environment, but his numbers away from T-Mobile Park (3.75 ERA, 1.12 HR/9) are only slightly worse than those compiled when pitching at home in Seattle (3.57 ERA, 0.91 HR/9).

Because Flexen’s numbers were superior to those of Gonzales across the board, some argued that Gonzales should be the odd man out, despite his relatively lengthy tenure with the club. Gonzales is nearly three years older, however, has more than double the money remaining on his contract. Flexen’s trade value was and is higher, and while he alone wouldn’t have fetched a substantial upgrade to the Seattle lineup, he could certainly have been included in a package that worked toward that endgame.

Now, however, the majority of the teams around the game have exhausted the bulk of their offseason budget and filled the rotation vacancies that existed early in the winter. That ostensibly points toward both Flexen and Gonzales beginning the year with Seattle, perhaps with one in a long relief role. It’s always possible that a spring injury elsewhere on the staff would necessitate a scenario wherein both Flexen and Gonzales are part of the Opening Day rotation.

That said, the injury component still looms as a possibility for other clubs. Even teams that right now believe their rotations to be full could run into trouble over the next 50 days. Nary a spring training goes by without multiple pitchers going down to major injury; situations like the one that popped up today in Milwaukee — where Aaron Ashby is being slowed by shoulder fatigue — are commonplace this time of year. As the exhibition season wears on, more severe injuries that threaten long chunks (or the entirety) of an established pitcher’s season will arise. Many teams are in positions like the Mariners, where they have the depth to withstand such a hit. Others, however, are already looking at questionable depth beyond their top few names (e.g. White Sox, Blue Jays, Padres — to varying extents).

Injuries are an inevitability this time of year, and the Mariners’ depth will likely be attractive to other clubs as health troubles throughout the league arise. Seattle may prefer to stockpile that depth, but moving Flexen would likely free up some resources to expand the budget for in-season acquisitions. It’s also possible that they take on some salary to address another need on the big league roster by way of the Flexen trade itself.

For what it’s worth, Corey Brock of The Athletic speculated in his latest mailbag that the Mariners will ultimately find a deal for Flexen during spring training when an injury on another club creates a need, though it’s just as possible that said injury occurs on Seattle’s staff and takes Flexen out of the trade equation entirely.

Let’s put this one up to a vote for MLBTR readers to weigh in (link to poll)…

Will the Mariners trade Chris Flexen before Opening Day?
No, they'll keep the depth. 60.19% (2,566 votes)
Yes, they'll find a trade partner in Spring Training. 39.81% (1,697 votes)
Total Votes: 4,263

Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Elvis Andrus?

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This offseason’s crop of free agents featured a clear top four in the shortstop category. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson were all highly sought after and all ended up securing deals well into nine-figure territory. There was a steep drop to the fifth best option, Elvis Andrus. Though there were many teams who expressed interested in the “Big Four” that ended up missing out, none have made a pivot to Andrus as a backup plan thus far. With just three weeks remaining until Spring Training begins, Andrus is still unsigned.

The 34-year-old Andrus has 14 years of MLB experience, having debuted with the Rangers as a 20-year-old back in 2009. He spent many years with Texas, hitting at a below-average level but still proving to be a valuable player via his speed and defense. In the 11 seasons from 2009 to 2019, he hit just 73 home runs and walked in just 7.3% of his plate appearances, but he also struck out at just a 13.6% rate. His batting line in that time was .275/.331/.373 for a wRC+ of 86, indicating he was 14% below league average. However, he also stole 302 bases and also graded very well on the dirt. Defensive Runs Saved had him just a hair above average, but Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a score of 28.2, the fifth-highest among shortstops in that time. Outs Above Average, which was only introduced in 2016, graded him at plus-14, which was also fifth-best at the position. Despite the subpar batting, his 30.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs was the second-most of all shortstops in that timeframe, trailing only Troy Tulowitzki.

Andrus had a down year in the shortened 2020 campaign and was traded to the A’s prior to 2021. He ended up having another typical season for him, hitting at a 74 wRC+ level but stealing 12 bases and getting some good grades for his work on the dirt. That led to him accumulating 1.6 fWAR on the year. In 2022, Andrus actually had a better season, despite being released by the A’s in the summer. That release seems to have been financially motivated, as Andrus had a slightly complicated finish to his contract. The 2022 season was the final guaranteed year of the extension he signed with the Rangers back in 2013. There was also a $15MM club option for 2023 but it would become a player option if Andrus was traded at some point and also logged 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus was getting regular playing time with the rebuilding A’s and was well on his way to meeting that plate appearance threshold, but they instead released him in August. Andrus signed a new contract with the White Sox who needed a shortstop replacement for the injured Tim Anderson, eventually getting to 577 plate appearances on the year. Because he signed a new contract with the White Sox, the option was a moot point. He finished the year with a .249/.303/404 batting line and a wRC+ of 105. Thanks to his 18 steals and shortstop defense, he was worth 3.5 fWAR on the season between the two clubs.

Despite that solid platform year, Andrus lingers on the market. It’s probable that clubs are a bit skeptical of the 2022 output since Andrus hit .255/.302/.360 over the four prior seasons — but even that diminished version of Andrus was worth 4.3 fWAR in 419 games. Many teams still have shortstop deficiencies, and Andrus could also potentially help out teams that are weak at second base. He’s never played on the other side of the bag but expressed a willingness to do so last year with the White Sox when there was a possibility Anderson could return from the IL and retake the shortstop position. Despite the lack of experience at the position, many shortstops have found it easy to make the transition to second, which is considered a less-demanding spot.

Even with various qualities he could bring to a club, the market for Andrus has seemingly been quiet. The primary public link has been to the Red Sox, in the wake of Trevor Story requiring internal brace surgery on his elbow. Given that the club also lost Bogaerts to the Padres, they are now doubly lacking in the middle infield. Since then, they’ve signed Adam Duvall to hopefully be their everyday center fielder, thus moving Enrique Hernández to shortstop. Hernandez has only ever had part-time work at the position but recently expressed his excitement about a lengthier stint there, appearing on NESN during the club’s Winter Weekend festivities. With Christian Arroyo playing second base, it’s possible the Sox consider themselves set, but Duvall has never been a full-time center fielder and the same goes for Hernandez at short. That’s risky enough as it is, but one injury suddenly makes the situation look even worse. Adding Andrus and moving Hernandez to second or center field would improve the depth significantly. Jon Morosi of MLB Network recently suggested the Sox would like to bring Andrus aboard as a non-roster invitee, but it would register as a surprise if he couldn’t get a modest major league deal elsewhere, given his decent floor and solid year in 2022. The Sox are still more than $15MM shy of the luxury tax, per Roster Resource, and could still fit a modest deal on the books without pushing against it.

There are plenty of other logical suitors. The Diamondbacks currently have Nick Ahmed lined up to be their primary shortstop. Like Andrus, he’s a strong defender who doesn’t hit much, but he’s also been dealing with shoulder problems for years. Those shoulder troubles put him under the knife last year and he was only able to get into 17 games. Geraldo Perdomo was pushed into regular duty to cover for Ahmed but had a poor season on both sides of the ball. The club has an excellent second baseman in Ketel Marte but he’s been battling lingering hamstring issues for the past couple of seasons. A reliable veteran middle infielder would make plenty of sense for the Snakes.

A return to the White Sox would also make sense, even though Anderson should be back in the shortstop position. The second base spot is less clear, with Josh Harrison a free agent and Danny Mendick having signed with the Mets. Romy González, Leury García, Lenyn Sosa and non-roster invitee Hanser Alberto are some of the options that will be in camp next month, though none of those options are particularly inspiring. Andrus already said he’d be willing to play second next to Anderson and perhaps that would be a better option for the Sox than anything else currently on hand.

The Angels seem set to go into the year without a clear-cut shortstop. Luis Rengifo, David Fletcher and Gio Urshela are all possibilities, though none of them are really perfect. All three of them are multi-positional players that have spent much more time at other spots on the diamond. Fletcher probably has the strongest defensive argument to get the job, since he’s been graded a bit above average by all three of DRS, UZR and OAA for his career. However, he’s provided very little at the plate outside of the shortened 2020 season. Also, with Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh coming off injury-marred campaigns, the Halos have question marks at both corner infield spots. Brandon Drury and Urshela can help out, but there’s still sense in further bolstering the depth.

The Marlins have been busy on the trade market lately, sending shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers and acquiring Luis Arraez in a trade sending Pablo Lopez to the Twins. Their current plans seems to be to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field, leaving them with an infield of Jean Segura at third, Joey Wendle at shortstop, Arraez at second base and Garrett Cooper at first. They’ve been recently connected to first baseman Yuli Gurriel, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting that Gurriel could play some second or third base. That’s a risky plan since he’ll turn 39 in June and hasn’t seen meaningful time at either of those positions since 2019. He’s also coming off a pretty poor year at the plate. The club is already taking a big risk on defense by having a center fielder with no experience there and two left-side infield positions manned by players who have spent much more time elsewhere. Arraez has plenty of second base experience but was graded poorly there, and the Twins bumped him to first base before trading him to Miami. Perhaps adding Andrus and moving Wendle back to a utility role would be a more elegant solution than the Gurriel option.

The Astros have Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve up the middle and certainly don’t need help there. However, they lost their backup/utility option Aledmys Díaz to the A’s in free agency. They could replace him in-house with Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley, but Dubón had a poor year at the plate in 2022 and Hensley has been more of a utility player than a regular at shortstop. The Astros are probably fine if everyone is healthy, but an injury to Peña could make the depth start to feel a little shaky.

The Braves have lost Swanson to the Cubs but haven’t done anything to replace him. It seems the plan is to install 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom in the position and hope he can handle it. There’s risk in that plan as he has just 41 games of MLB experience, including just 10 innings at short. He has much more experience at the position in the minors, but many prospect evaluators have suggested he’s stretched at that spot and should move to second, third or the outfield. Should the Grissom experiment fail, the club’s best backup plan right now is Orlando Arcia. He has lots of shortstop experience with the Brewers but doesn’t hit much and eventually got moved into a utility role.

The Rockies had José Iglesias as their shortstop last year, but he is now a free agent. They seem ready to hand the reins over to prospect Ezequiel Tovar, who made his MLB debut last year. However, he’s still just 21 years old, has played just 80 games above the High-A level and only 14 of those above Double-A. Should he struggle in his first real taste of the majors, their backup plan would be to turn to Alan Trejo or Cole Tucker, neither of whom having much major league success of their own.

There’s also the wild card that is the World Baseball Classic, which takes place in March. Dozens of major league players will be ramping up quicker than they would in a normal spring and diving into competitive action. That creates the possibility that someone will sustain an injury that creates a new opening for Andrus. Some of the middle infielders that are set to participate in the WBC include Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Andrés Giménez and many more.

What do you think? Where do you think Andrus winds up? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Sign Elvis Andrus?
Red Sox 30.28% (1,927 votes)
White Sox 11.90% (757 votes)
Braves 11.17% (711 votes)
Angels 4.60% (293 votes)
Cardinals 2.86% (182 votes)
Tigers 2.83% (180 votes)
Giants 2.70% (172 votes)
Marlins 2.69% (171 votes)
Yankees 2.39% (152 votes)
Blue Jays 2.12% (135 votes)
Diamondbacks 2.07% (132 votes)
Dodgers 2.00% (127 votes)
Rangers 1.96% (125 votes)
Rockies 1.96% (125 votes)
Mets 1.74% (111 votes)
Reds 1.62% (103 votes)
Pirates 1.60% (102 votes)
Orioles 1.59% (101 votes)
Mariners 1.37% (87 votes)
Athletics 1.18% (75 votes)
Nationals 1.18% (75 votes)
Twins 1.16% (74 votes)
Brewers 1.13% (72 votes)
Cubs 1.12% (71 votes)
Royals 1.01% (64 votes)
Padres 0.99% (63 votes)
Astros 0.91% (58 votes)
Phillies 0.71% (45 votes)
Guardians 0.64% (41 votes)
Rays 0.52% (33 votes)
Total Votes: 6,364
Show all

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