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MLBTR Poll: American League West Favorite

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The Astros have won the division title in the American League West in each of the past five full seasons. They also reached the ALCS in each of those years, along with the shortened 2020 campaign. There hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that time, including just a few months ago. However, their rivals have been aggressive in trying to load up to chase them in 2023 and it now seems like four out of the five clubs seem like legitimate contenders.

There’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, meaning there’s still time for some aggressive transactions that will further change the calculus. But much of the heavy lifting of the offseason appears to be done. Most of the top free agents are off the board, with guys like Jurickson Profar, Michael Wacha and Andrew Chafin the top remaining options. Those are fine players that could certainly help a team but they wouldn’t be franchise-altering additions. There’s also the trade market, which could theoretically see Bryan Reynolds on the move. The Rangers are reportedly interested in him, but so are many other teams and the Pirates have continued to hold firm to an asking price that seems to be quite high.

Whether there are significant moves still to come or not, let’s look at where the clubs stand now, starting with the reigning champs.

Houston Astros – 2022 record: 106-56, projected 2023 fWAR: 48.2

There’s not much doubt about the Astros at this point. As mentioned, they’re enjoying an incredible run of success. Going into the winter, they lost some significant players to free agency, the most notable of which was Justin Verlander. The club hasn’t done anything to supplant him thus far, which is a defendable but risky move. The rotation has plenty of solid options without Verlander, with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown on the roster. However, Verlander is the reigning Cy Young winner after tossing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA last year. Subtracting that kind of performance would have an impact on any club.

On the position player side, they lost Christian Vázquez, Jason Castro, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz to free agency. They’ve since re-signed Brantley and added José Abreu. Overall, the team is still going to be good, but is it enough to hold off the others? FanGraphs certainly thinks so, giving them the highest projected wins above replacement on their depth charts, but there are three clubs within striking distance.

Seattle Mariners – 2022 record: 90-72, projected 2023 fWAR: 43.5

The Mariners finally broke through in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001. That snapped the longest active postseason drought in the majors, a dishonor that now falls to the Tigers and Angels, who each last qualified for the playoffs in 2014.

This offseason, they have been fairly quiet in terms of free agency, with reliever Trevor Gott marking their only signing so far. They have made some notable trades, however, as is their wont. They acquired slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays, sending reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko the other way. They also acquired Kolten Wong from the Brewers, sending Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee. Hernández and Wong will essentially replace two of the club’s most significant free agent departures in Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier.

The Hernández/Wong pairing could certainly act as an upgrade over Haniger/Frazier, but probably not a huge one. If the club is going to catch the Astros, it will likely have to come from gains made by players already on the roster. Having a full season of Luis Castillo, whom they acquired at the deadline last year, will certainly help. Julio Rodríguez had an incredible rookie season at the age of 21 but could perhaps be even better this year. A breakout from struggling young outfielder Jarred Kelenic would be a tremendous boost. Continued development from young pitchers like George Kirby and Matt Brash would also help.

Los Angeles Angels – 2022 record: 73-89, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.4

The Angels have continued to disappoint despite having two of the best players on the planet on their roster. That was the case again in 2022, as Mike Trout was limited by injury to just 119 games but still produced 6.0 fWAR while Shohei Ohtani produced 3.8 fWAR at the plate and 5.6 on the mound. Still, the club fell out of contention in the summer and never really made it back.

Despite years of falling short of expectations, there are reasons to think 2023 could actually be the year they deliver. They didn’t lose any key contributors to free agency, with players like Michael Lorenzen and Matt Duffy marking some of the most notable departures. They’ve also patched some of the holes that have caused their ship to sink in past years, as a lack of adequate depth has continually wasted the star performances at the top of the roster.

Starting pitching has long been a struggle for the club but the rotation seems like it could be in the best shape in years. 2022 saw encouraging developments from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, all of whom are slated to return to the club this year. The Halos also supplemented that group by signing Tyler Anderson away from the Dodgers. That gives them a solid front five with Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth on hand as depth options. On the position player side, they’ve added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela. Those aren’t stars, but the Angels already had stars. They needed adequate role players to supplement their stars and seem to have added some solid options.

Texas Rangers – 2022 record: 68-94, projected 2023 fWAR: 41.9

Of the four plausible competitors in the division, the Rangers will need the biggest turnaround, since 2022 was rough. Turning a 68-win team into a contender in one offseason is no easy feat. But they already did most of the heavy lifting on the position player side last winter, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on mega deals just prior to the lockout.

The big task of this winter would be upgrading the pitching staff and they have completely overhauled it. They re-signed Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. Those five, along with incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, put the club in a much better position going forward. There are injury concerns scattered throughout that crew, but it’s miles beyond the staff they had last year.

Oakland Athletics – 2022 record: 60-102, projected 2023 fWAR: 29.3

Since the lockout ended in March, the A’s have leaned hard into a rebuild. In just the past ten months, they have traded away Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. They lost 102 games last year and should be lined up for another rebuild/evaluation season. They’ve made marginal adds by signing Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Drew Rucinski and Trevor May, but the expectation of just about everyone is that they will be in the basement yet again this year.

______________________

The Astros will likely go into the season as the favorite, since they are the reigning World Series champs and have made a few solid moves this offseason. But there are plenty of reasons to think it could be an interesting battle all season long. The Mariners, Rangers and Angels have all made interesting moves this winter and are all within 8 WAR of the Astros according to the projections of FanGraphs. Is this the year the Astros get dethroned?

What do you think? Who will be best in the West in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL West In 2023?
Astros 55.33% (5,955 votes)
Mariners 16.76% (1,804 votes)
Rangers 12.96% (1,395 votes)
Angels 10.97% (1,181 votes)
A's 3.97% (427 votes)
Total Votes: 10,762

Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Jurickson Profar?

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Aside from Carlos Correa — who reportedly remains focused on finalizing his deal with the Mets — only three players from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents remain without a contract. There’s just one hitter from the group, as the market for Jurickson Profar has remained surprisingly quiet.

The nine-year MLB veteran had a solid 2022 campaign with the Padres, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs through 658 plate appearances. It was his second above-average offensive season in the last three years, leading the 29-year-old to make the easy decision to accept a $1MM buyout and hit free agency instead of returning to San Diego on a $7.5MM salary.

In the nearly two months since then, however, there’s been virtually zero indication as to his next landing spot. The only team that has been substantively tied to Profar this winter is the Astros, and that was before they re-signed Michael Brantley to split time with Yordan Alvarez between left field and designated hitter.

That leaves only speculative possibilities in trying to narrow down Profar’s landing spot. With Profar mostly limited to left field in recent years after breaking into the majors as an infielder, it’s worth looking at the clubs that got the worst production out of the position. Here are the bottom ten teams in wRC+ from left fielders in 2022:

  • Rangers (47)
  • Angels (67)
  • Marlins (81)
  • Tigers (88)
  • Red Sox (91)
  • A’s (94)
  • Reds (95)
  • Pirates (97)
  • Braves (97)
  • Twins (98)

A few of these clubs have already addressed the issue. The Halos traded for Hunter Renfroe, while the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract. The Twins signed Joey Gallo and look likelier to trade away an outfielder than sign another.

Some others are either amidst rebuilds or at least heading into transitional seasons. The A’s, Tigers, Reds and Pirates are all unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2023. That doesn’t inherently rule them out on Profar, who’s still fairly young and could sign a multi-year deal. Yet it perhaps lessens the urgency for anyone in that group to try to plug every hole on the roster via free agency. Let’s take a look at the remaining three clubs in that group:

  • Rangers: Texas has had a second straight whirlwind offseason, this time on the pitching staff. They’ve added four starting pitchers as part of their efforts to vault themselves into postseason contention. Left field is the biggest remaining weakness, and Rangers general manager Chris Young has already gone on record about a desire to upgrade. Bubba Thompson and infield/outfield hybrids Brad Miller, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán headline the internal options. An addition seems likely, although it remains to be seen if Texas would circle back to Profar, who never met the extremely lofty expectations he’d had as a prospect in the Rangers farm system.
  • Marlins: The Marlins haven’t addressed the outfield this winter, but they added Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler on multi-year pacts last offseason. They could make Profar fit if they moved Soler to a more or less everyday designated hitter role, but another free agent deal for a corner outfielder might be too rich for their taste. That’s particularly true since most of their in-house younger outfielders (i.e. Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday) profile better in a corner than they do in center field.
  • Braves: Atlanta has thrown a few darts at left field this offseason. They’ve acquired Sam Hilliard and Eli White in minor trades while signing Jordan Luplow to a modest one-year deal. None of them should stand in the way of an impact left fielder, but Profar’s more of a solid stabilizing veteran than the kind of player who’d change a lineup. Between the trio of new pickups and in-house candidates like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, Atlanta may feel they’ll find at least one player in the group who can reasonably approximate Profar’s production.

Beyond that trio of teams, a few more stand out as possible fits. The Mariners have looked for ways to address left field. As with Atlanta, they have a hodgepodge of internal candidates for reps (Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore among them) and could feel better patching things together if they don’t land a clearer upgrade via trade. Seattle also has some questions about their remaining spending capacity. The Yankees haven’t attacked left field after losing Andrew Benintendi in free agency. Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks are the in-house favorites for playing time.

The Royals have almost no certainty in either corner outfield spot. The Nationals are rebuilding but the Talk Nats blog tweeted a few weeks ago they were looking to bring in some outfield help. The incumbent Padres still make some sense. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made no secret of his longstanding affinity for Profar dating back to their overlapping time in the Texas organization. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely ticketed for left field work once he returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, but adding another bat to the corner outfield/designated hitter mix could free Matt Carpenter up for more multi-positional work off the bench.

What does the MLBTR readership consider the best fits for Profar? Where will he wind up?

(poll link for app users)

Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
Padres 14.03% (1,174 votes)
Rangers 11.01% (921 votes)
Yankees 9.37% (784 votes)
Blue Jays 5.08% (425 votes)
Mariners 4.71% (394 votes)
Tigers 4.70% (393 votes)
Giants 4.26% (356 votes)
Braves 4.11% (344 votes)
Red Sox 3.93% (329 votes)
White Sox 3.55% (297 votes)
Mets 3.12% (261 votes)
Orioles 2.69% (225 votes)
Cubs 2.47% (207 votes)
Marlins 2.46% (206 votes)
Dodgers 2.34% (196 votes)
Cardinals 2.28% (191 votes)
Royals 2.15% (180 votes)
Astros 2.02% (169 votes)
Reds 1.86% (156 votes)
Brewers 1.79% (150 votes)
Rays 1.63% (136 votes)
A's 1.63% (136 votes)
Pirates 1.49% (125 votes)
Nationals 1.47% (123 votes)
Angels 1.37% (115 votes)
Twins 1.33% (111 votes)
Guardians 1.20% (100 votes)
Rockies 0.87% (73 votes)
Phillies 0.74% (62 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.32% (27 votes)
Total Votes: 8,366

 

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Michael Wacha Sign?

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With Nathan Eovaldi agreeing to a deal with the Rangers, the top remaining starting pitcher on the free agent market (per MLBTR’s rankings) is Michael Wacha. In fact, Wacha is the only remaining starting pitcher left from the Top 50 free agents.

As things stand, the Orioles are the only known team to have checked in on the 31-year-old, who’s coming off his best season in a while for the Red Sox. Wacha made 23 starts for Boston last season, working to a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings. That mark did come with a fairly pedestrian 20.2% strikeout rate, and a solid 6% walk rate. Further, his .260 opponent BABIP suggests a bit of good fortune was involved, and sure enough Wacha’s FIP sat at 4.14 for the season. Nonetheless, it was a far more improved showing than in recent times for Wacha.

Between 2020-21, Wacha tossed 158 2/3 innings for the Mets and Rays, working to a 5.39 ERA. Those two seasons came with better strikeout rates, but his HardHit% were comfortably the highest of his career, as were his home run rates.

Wacha was once a highly touted prospect in the Cardinals system. Drafted 19th overall in 2012, Wacha made his big league debut as a 21-year-old in 2013. Over his first three seasons, he’d toss 353 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, and picked up the 2013 NLCS MVP award for his efforts in that series against the Dodgers. He was never a big strikeout pitcher, but kept the ball on the ground enough, limited the walks and induced enough soft contact to be a highly effective starter.

Those three seasons turned out to comfortably be Wacha’s best, and since the 2016 campaign he’s hurled 800 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball. He’s signed one-year deals the past three seasons, but that solid campaign last season could well see him get a modest two-year guarantee this winter. MLBTR predicted a two-year $16MM pact for Wacha and there certainly seems a good chance he matches that at least, particularly given how well starting pitching has done in free agency this winter.

As for who could be interested, the Orioles are not only the only reported team to have checked in (though there have surely been others), but they do make a lot of sense as well. They have been linked to a number of mid-tier starters this winter, and signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM pact. Still, the backend of their rotation has a few options but most are light on MLB experience and adding someone like Wacha would provide them with a bit more stability.

The Angels and Padres were both linked to Eovaldi before he signed with the Rangers, so it makes sense to take a look at them as possible fits for the next best option. The Angels have a pretty solid five-man rotation, with Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Anderson at the top, and southpaws Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez rounding it out. LA has often worked with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload though, and Wacha could fit in nicely as another starting option for them.

The Padres, too, appear to have the foundations of a starting five in place, but like the Angels could do with a sixth option. Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are locked in to the first three spots, with Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo penciled in to fill out the rotation. Reports have suggested San Diego plans to utilize the latter two as starters, but both have typically worked as relievers recently, so adding Wacha could give them some insurance against those two failing to lockdown a starting spot.

A return to Boston could also be an option. They do have Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock lined up to handle the starting duties. Yet Sale and Paxton have had a wretched run of injuries (and the team is reportedly listening to offers on Sale), while Whitlock has fared much better in the bullpen. Youngster Brayan Bello is also an option to join the rotation at some point, so there’s not a clear need to add someone like Wacha, but it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he did wind up back in Boston.

While those three teams all have ambitions to compete in 2023, Wacha could also be a fit on rebuilding teams. Even if it requires a two-year deal to sign him, a rebuilding club could hope that he builds off his solid 2022 campaign and turns himself into a valuable trade chip either at the deadline or next winter. At worst, it’s unlikely it’d be an onerous commitment to sign him and even if he doesn’t pitch himself into a trade chip he could still work as an innings-eater for a rebuilding team with a younger roster.

In that case, perhaps a team like the Reds could be amenable to bringing him in if the price is right. Luis Cessa is the veteran in the Reds’ rotation as things stand, but he’s typically worked as a long reliever. Outside of Cessa, it’s a young rotation for all of uncertainty, and adding a veteran like Wacha could solidify things and take a bit of the pressure off their younger arms.

There’s a fair few other possible fits, and any of the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox could make some sense. Where do you see Wacha signing this winter?

Where Will Michael Wacha Sign?
Baltimore Orioles 17.09% (1,999 votes)
Boston Red Sox 15.43% (1,805 votes)
St Louis Cardinals 10.64% (1,245 votes)
Los Angeles Angels 7.77% (909 votes)
San Diego Padres 5.00% (585 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 3.80% (445 votes)
Chicago Cubs 3.54% (414 votes)
Minnesota Twins 3.38% (395 votes)
Cincinnati Reds 2.38% (279 votes)
San Francisco Giants 2.29% (268 votes)
Atlanta Braves 2.27% (266 votes)
Pittsburgh Pirates 2.21% (258 votes)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2.08% (243 votes)
Washington Nationals 2.06% (241 votes)
Philadelphia Phillies 1.95% (228 votes)
Detroit Tigers 1.87% (219 votes)
Chicago White Sox 1.78% (208 votes)
Kansas City Royals 1.62% (189 votes)
New York Yankees 1.52% (178 votes)
Texas Rangers 1.44% (168 votes)
New York Mets 1.26% (147 votes)
Oakland Athletics 1.25% (146 votes)
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.10% (129 votes)
Milwaukee Brewers 1.10% (129 votes)
Cleveland Guardians 1.06% (124 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 1.04% (122 votes)
Seattle Mariners 0.97% (113 votes)
Houston Astros 0.96% (112 votes)
Colorado Rockies 0.78% (91 votes)
Miami Marlins 0.38% (45 votes)
Total Votes: 11,700

MLBTR Poll: Nathan Eovaldi’s Landing Spot

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Aside from Carlos Correa, whose agreed-upon deal with the Mets is on hold as his camp and the team try to sort out renewed concerns regarding the shortstop’s physical, Nathan Eovaldi is the highest-ranked player from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents who has yet to put pen to paper. He’s also the only unsigned player who’d turned down a qualifying offer.

A few teams have been tied to the former All-Star starter. Last week, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported the Padres, Angels and an unnamed American League East club were in the mix. It doesn’t seem that team is the incumbent Red Sox, as Bradford has suggested on a few occasions this offseason Boston doesn’t appear especially motivated to retain the right-hander.

The Padres have already made a couple rotation moves, re-signing Nick Martinez and adding Seth Lugo on a two-year pact. They’re presently slated for the final two spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. There’s still a fair bit of downside in that group, with neither Martinez nor Lugo having much recent track record as an MLB starting pitcher. Both Martinez and Lugo have the chance to opt out of their deals after the 2023 season (albeit only if the Padres first decline a two-year, $32MM club option in Martinez’s case). Darvish and Snell are each ticketed for free agency after next year, leaving Musgrove potentially as the only long-term rotation building block. Headed into his age-33 season, Eovaldi’s not likely to receive a significantly long investment, but he figures to command multiple years and could help solidify the post-2023 rotation in San Diego.

Anaheim already has a solid front five. Shohei Ohtani is the ace, while Tyler Anderson was brought in on a three-year free agent deal to add to the middle of the staff. Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez and Reid Detmers round out the group, with all three young southpaws having pitched well down the stretch in 2022. The Angels have frequently relied upon a six-man staff in the Ohtani era, though. Even if they’re planning to go with a five-man group to maximize Ohtani’s workload next year, there’s merit to bringing in another stable arm who can add some injury insurance.

Aside from San Diego and Anaheim, reports of known suitors for Eovaldi have been few and far between. The Yankees and Blue Jays were linked to him earlier in the winter, but those clubs have since signed Carlos Rodón and Chris Bassitt, respectively. New York now seems likely to be out on Eovaldi entirely, with Rodón joining Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas in the starting five. Toronto could fit for a rotation pickup on paper given the uncertainty associated with José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi/Mitch White at the back end. Yet they’re already projected for a franchise-record payroll, and general manager Ross Atkins told reporters over the weekend he believes the team’s “hefty lifting is done.”

If one assumes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays aren’t the unnamed AL East team involved in Eovaldi’s market, that’d leave the Rays and Orioles. Baltimore is the better fit, with Tampa Bay having inked Zach Eflin to a $40MM deal to bolster an already quality rotation. Baltimore entered the offseason seeking starting pitching. Thus far, they’ve swapped in Kyle Gibson for Jordan Lyles in the veteran innings eater role but haven’t made the kind of mid-rotation or better addition most had anticipated. Baltimore has some rotation options — i.e. Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez — but it’s a group light on MLB experience.

A few other teams make some sense as speculative possibilities, albeit as imperfect fits. The Rangers have added four starters already this winter, though they could at least consider another arm to push both Jake Odorizzi and Dane Dunning into depth roles. The Twins have ample payroll space amidst a quiet winter. Rotation help isn’t a need per se, but adding Eovaldi would help guard against some of the injury question marks with the in-house staff. The White Sox may not have any additional spending room after their five-year commitment to Andrew Benintendi. If they do have some money to play with, though, another starter would fit on the roster. The Dodgers could look to fortify their rotation with Walker Buehler missing most or all of next season. There’s room on paper for Eovaldi but they’d have to exceed the luxury tax threshold, which they don’t seem eager to do, in order to add him.

Where does the MLBTR readership anticipate Eovaldi winding up?

(poll link for app users)

Which Team Will Sign Nathan Eovaldi?
Red Sox 13.88% (2,749 votes)
Angels 11.30% (2,238 votes)
Orioles 11.12% (2,203 votes)
Padres 10.77% (2,133 votes)
Cardinals 5.76% (1,141 votes)
Rangers 5.16% (1,022 votes)
Blue Jays 4.80% (951 votes)
Twins 3.71% (734 votes)
Cubs 3.66% (725 votes)
Giants 3.56% (706 votes)
Yankees 3.50% (694 votes)
Dodgers 3.13% (619 votes)
Phillies 2.71% (537 votes)
Braves 2.16% (428 votes)
Mets 1.89% (374 votes)
White Sox 1.44% (286 votes)
Astros 1.39% (276 votes)
Pirates 1.23% (244 votes)
Mariners 1.15% (228 votes)
Rays 1.08% (213 votes)
Tigers 0.95% (188 votes)
Brewers 0.92% (183 votes)
A's 0.81% (160 votes)
Guardians 0.80% (159 votes)
Reds 0.69% (136 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.64% (127 votes)
Royals 0.60% (118 votes)
Nationals 0.50% (100 votes)
Rockies 0.38% (75 votes)
Marlins 0.30% (60 votes)
Total Votes: 19,807

 

Identifying The Best Landing Spots For Dansby Swanson

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Dansby Swanson is the last unsigned position player from MLBTR’s top ten free agents. He’ll be the final of the four top-tier shortstops to come off the board, and his destination will surely be influenced by how the market has already played out.

The Phillies and Giants entered the offseason widely regarded as potential landing spots for the top shortstops, particularly if San Francisco were to wind up missing on Aaron Judge. Few would’ve foreseen the Padres jumping into that mix for Xander Bogaerts, with San Diego taking one of the “big four” off the board and perhaps opening another landing spot for Swanson.

Let’s take a look at the most plausible remaining landing spots.

Best Fits

Cubs

The Cubs met with all four top shortstops at the outset of the offseason, but there’s no indication they’ve wanted to pay the enormous asking prices on any of the other three. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago wrote last night that discussions with Carlos Correa were limited to general outlines of possible financial parameters, with no formal offer being put on the table. Swanson figures to land the lowest deal of the group, perhaps making him a more palatable target for Chicago. Even if Swanson won’t push or exceed $300MM as Correa, Trea Turner and Bogaerts had, he’s likely to surpass $150MM. This would require the largest investment the Cubs have made since signing Jason Heyward seven years ago.

Is Chicago ownership willing to go to that level? They should have the payroll space to do so, as they’re around $157MM in projected 2023 commitments. That’s above where they’ve sat the last two seasons but nowhere near the $200MM+ franchise-record heights from a few years ago. The Cubs are coming off a second consecutive well below-average season, but they’ve continued to maintain they’re not in a rebuild. It’s hard to imagine acquisitions of Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger alone getting a 74-win team back to postseason contention, particularly since they also lost Willson Contreras to free agency. Even adding Swanson to the mix likely leaves them behind the Cardinals and Brewers, but he’s only entering his age-29 season and should still be productive in 2024 and beyond — when the Cubs have a more realistic path to competing. The presence of Nico Hoerner means the Cubs don’t need a shortstop. Second base looks as if it’ll be manned by Nick Madrigal or Christopher Morel, though, and adding Swanson and kicking Hoerner to the other side of the bag would solidify the middle infield.

Twins

The Twins missed on Correa, whose stay in Minneapolis lasted only one year. Their reported ten-year, $285MM bid came up well shy of the 13-year, $350MM contract he eventually received from the Giants. Minnesota finished 78-84 even with Correa, and while better health from their pitching staff should help in 2023, they’re behind the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central as presently constructed. Pivoting to Swanson is a natural fallback, and Minnesota had already been in touch with his representatives even before officially losing out on Correa.

Minnesota has ample payroll room, as illustrated by their ultimately unsuccessful proposal to Correa. They’re not likely to present Swanson with anywhere near the same offer, but ownership and the front office could allocate much of their remaining space to plugging the shortstop vacancy. The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last month. He’s probably better suited for a utility role on a contender but presently projects as the starting shortstop. Former first overall pick Royce Lewis could factor in midseason. He won’t be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his right knee for the second time last June. It’s anyone’s guess how much of his athleticism and explosiveness he’ll retain after a second straight massive injury. Even if Lewis comes back strong yet again, he could bounce around the diamond in a multi-positional role if Minnesota were to add Swanson.

Braves

The Braves have publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson, who has been their everyday shortstop for the past six seasons. There’s certainly a fit on the roster. Atlanta looks as if they’d roll with Orlando Arcia and eventually top prospect Vaughn Grissom if Swanson walks. The Braves have had success trusting young players like Grissom in recent years, but he’s not without risk. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his defense, and he’s played all of 63 games above High-A. In a division with the Mets and Phillies, the Braves are facing sharp competition to put their best foot forward.

As has been the issue for months, the question about Atlanta is financial. They’re already at franchise-record heights for their player payroll, and their early offseason work has focused on the trade market. The Braves brought in Sean Murphy and Joe Jiménez, leveraging young talent but not taking on any notable salaries. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves and Swanson had had minimal contact since the offseason began, writing their most recent offer would’ve come with an annual salary in the $16-17MM range over six or seven years. That looks extremely light, particularly given the strength of the rest of the shortstop market. The Braves could circle back, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted yesterday that Swanson — a Georgia native — would still like to return to Atlanta. At least as of last week, there was a huge gap to bridge in negotiations, though.

Viable But Longer Shots

Dodgers

The Dodgers have been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason after seemingly not showing significant interest in the other top shortstops. It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for L.A., perhaps in part due to a hope of resetting their luxury tax status by dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. That’s not clearly a mandate, but team officials have signaled a desire to integrate some of their highly-touted position player prospects into the mix. The Dodgers presently project for a $201MM competitive balance tax number, so they could squeeze Swanson in while staying below the line as things stand. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote this week, however, they won’t have official clarity on their tax number until the Trevor Bauer suspension is litigated. Gavin Lux is on hand as a potential shortstop option, with Chris Taylor possibly sliding to second base in that scenario.

Red Sox

Like the Dodgers and Twins, the Red Sox lost their star shortstop in free agency. They’re now seeking up-the-middle help and a right-handed bat to balance the lineup. Swanson would knock off those goals in one swoop, and Boston has nearly $40MM in payroll room before hitting the base tax threshold. Like the Dodgers, they’ve been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason. It’d still come as a surprise if they pivot towards a full-fledged pursuit of Swanson after watching Bogaerts depart. They reportedly put forth a six-year, $162MM offer to their incumbent star shortstop. While they may have been willing to go a bit above that, they never seemed interested in matching the $280MM figure laid out by San Diego. That’s understandable, although Swanson’s contract could well beat what Boston had offered Bogaerts. Would the Red Sox make a stronger offer to Swanson than they had to a homegrown star whom they’d repeatedly called their top offseason priority?

Seemingly Unlikely

  • Angels: The Halos have an uncertain middle infield mix and could look outside the organization to pair with David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and perhaps Gio Urshela in that group. They’ve been fairly active early, taking on around $40MM in 2023 salary to add Urhsela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez. None of it has come with a longer commitment than the three years they guaranteed Anderson, though. Does owner Arte Moreno want to add a six-plus year deal to the books when he’s hoping to sell the franchise by Opening Day?
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals were tied to Swanson earlier in the offseason. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested that was likelier to happen only if the Cards landed the catcher they considered a top priority via trade. Instead, they signed the top free agent available, Contreras, for $87.5MM over five seasons. A franchise-record contract for Swanson on top of that feels uncharacteristic for an organization that usually does its hefty lifting via trade.
  • Diamondbacks: The D-Backs could use a shortstop and were loosely linked to Bogaerts earlier in the offseason. They’ve occasionally come out of nowhere to make a major free agent investment (see: Zack Greinke), but they haven’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll in either of the last two years. Bringing back Swanson, whom the previous front office initially drafted with the first overall pick in 2015, would make a lot of sense from a roster perspective, but the money probably isn’t lining up.
  • Giants: San Francisco could probably accommodate another notable signing, as they’re presently projected around $27MM below the base luxury tax threshold. They’d likely be able to fit Swanson in while avoiding tax payments, but it feels unlikely after they nabbed Correa. Brandon Crawford and Wilmer Flores give them other options at second and third base. First base, center field and the bullpen all look like greater areas of need.
  • Mariners: At the start of the offseason, the Mariners expressed some willingness to pursue a shortstop with an eye towards kicking him over to second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. They subsequently traded for Kolten Wong instead, which looks as if it’ll rule them out.
  • Mets: The Mets warrant cursory mention on every top free agent at this point given owner Steve Cohen’s aggressiveness. They reportedly at least considered a run at Correa with an eye towards moving him to third base. Swanson isn’t that caliber of hitter, though, and kicking him over to third while displacing Eduardo Escobar, Luis Guillorme and top prospect Brett Baty seems like a stretch.
  • Orioles: The Orioles were reportedly poking around the shortstop market at the start of the offseason. They’ve not actually shown any signs they want to make a major investment this winter, though. With a number of top infield prospects at the MLB level or on the horizon (i.e. Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz), a Swanson pursuit doesn’t seem to in the cards.
  • Padres: San Diego is in Mets territory of warranting a mention on every free agent given their boldness, but the infield is already overloaded after the Bogaerts deal.
  • Yankees: For a second straight offseason, the Yankees haven’t seemed much interested in exploring the top of a loaded shortstop class. They’ve maintained faith in prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to eventually seize that mantle. If they’re going to make another big investment after re-signing Judge, it seems Carlos Rodón is the target.

Note: all salary projections courtesy of Roster Resource

Where does the MLBTR readership expect Swanson to wind up?

(poll link for app users)

Where Will Dansby Swanson Sign?
Cubs 33.99% (4,076 votes)
Braves 24.06% (2,885 votes)
Twins 14.73% (1,766 votes)
Dodgers 10.62% (1,273 votes)
Red Sox 9.28% (1,113 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 7.33% (879 votes)
Total Votes: 11,992

 

Poll: Who Will Sign Carlos Rodon?

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Carlos Rodón is the top remaining starting pitcher in free agency and unsurprisingly has many suitors. The Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets, Orioles and Dodgers have been connected to him at various points throughout the offseason. However, many of those teams have since signed other pitchers, potentially taking them out of the running. Also, the latest report suggests that Rodón and his representatives are looking for a deal of seven years or longer with a guarantee of $200MM or more. That’s well beyond the five years and $140MM that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason and likely prices out some of those clubs. So, who will actually pull it off? Let’s take a look at the options.

Yankees

It is reportedly Rodón’s preference to make Yankee Stadium his home ballpark and the team is interested in him as well. That’s an excellent starting point but the fit gets more complicated from there. The Yanks would apparently prefer to limit their offers to the four- or five-year range, which is something that would have to be overcome in negotiations. It’s not surprising that the club has concerns about the long-term picture, since the future payrolls are already getting filled in. Aaron Judge is going to be making $40MM per season for the next nine years. Gerrit Cole still has six more years at $36MM per. Giancarlo Stanton has five more years between $25MM and $32MM, along with an option for 2028. Even if the club plans on turning that down at that time, it comes with a hefty $10MM buyout. DJ LeMahieu adds another $15MM per year for the next four seasons.

Even in the short term, there might be issues. There have been reports that the club would like to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, as crossing that line would lead to much higher taxation rates and the club’s top 2023 draft pick moving back 10 spots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $266MM, not too far from the $273MM third tier. Adding a salary near $30MM for Rodón would push them past that line and also past the top tier of $293MM.

From a baseball standpoint, adding another starter makes sense. The club’s rotation currently consists of Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. They could fill in the final slot with Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt and be in fine shape, but both Severino and Montas missed significant time with shoulder injuries in 2022. One more arm would bump German and Schmidt into depth roles and provide extra cover for an injury absence, but will they go for a top-of-the-market option like Rodón?

Red Sox

The Red Sox also have some long-term contracts on the books, though at lesser terms than the Yankees. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are each under control for five more seasons, though their combined salaries are just barely over $40MM in most of those seasons. That makes them roughly equal to what the Yanks are paying Judge alone, never mind Cole or Stanton. In the short term, Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $192MM, meaning they could easily add a Rodón-sized salary and stay under the first luxury tax threshold of $233MM, if they so desire.

From an on-field perspective, it also makes sense given their rotation question marks. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Garrett Whitlock has done more bullpen work in his career so far, with only nine starts in the majors at this point. Brayan Bello just debuted in 2022 and made 11 starts of middling quality. Nick Pivetta stayed healthy in 2022 but he’s never posted an ERA better than 4.53. There’s plenty of room for upgrades in there.

However, the Sox just watched their franchise shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, ship off to San Diego. They apparently made a six-year, $160MM offer that was more than $100MM below the $280MM the Padres gave him. It was even below the $189MM MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason, before spending went wild and it was clear it would take much more than that. After such a half-hearted attempt to secure a beloved franchise icon, are they really going to pivot and put in a harder charge for a new face like Rodón?

Twins

The entire Minnesota offseason has seemed to revolve around their hopes of bringing Carlos Correa back. The club has generally been pretty quiet, apart from acquiring Kyle Farmer as a Correa safety net and signing Christian Vázquez to be their catcher. They reportedly offered Correa ten years and $285MM, but he instead went to the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. Minnesota’s offer was actually a higher average annual value, but it was a significantly lower overall guarantee.

The question now is what their backup plan is. They were willing to five Correa $28.5MM per season, but would they have the same willingness for someone like Rodón? They certainly have the long-term payroll space to do it, as Byron Buxton and Vázquez are the only two players signed beyond the upcoming campaign. Vázquez will get a modest $10MM salary through 2025 while Buxton is only guaranteed $15MM per season through 2028 with various incentives available. In the short-term, the club’s payroll is only at $107MM for 2023, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s Opening Day figure of $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

From a baseball perspective, the club has many rotation options and doesn’t strictly need an upgrade. However, Rodón would easily jump to the top of the chart and could allow the club to trade someone else. Currently, their rotation mix consists of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and others. Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and could be back later in the season. Gray and Maeda have reportedly drawn trade interest, which could allow the club to make a splash on Rodón and then use their starters to upgrade elsewhere. The largest contract in franchise history is the $184MM extension they gave to Joe Mauer back in 2010. They were willing to smash that record for Correa but what about Rodón?

Giants

The Giants have been quite aggressive this winter, already handing out a mega deal for Correa as well as smaller but still significant deals for Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those latter two deals bolstered their rotation, with Manaea and Stripling now joining Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Jakob Junis as rotation options. That already seems like too many starters, though the club is apparently still in on Rodón.

From a long-term payroll point of view, they could certainly do it. Haniger and Correa are the only contracts on the books by 2025 and Correa the only one beyond that. In the short term, Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $190MM and their CBT figure at $206MM. They are getting near their franchise high payroll of $201MM, per Cot’s, though that was back in 2018. The CBT figure would tiptoe over the $233MM luxury tax line by adding a Rodón-sized deal, but they could pivot and trade one of their other starters to get back under. Wood is making $12.5MM in 2023 before reaching free agency, Cobb $9MM plus an option for 2024, DeSclafani $12MM in each of the next two seasons. Those three would all surely have some degree of trade value, given the high prices for free agent starters this winter. The club is also looking for outfield and catching help, but maybe a Rodón signing could eventually allow them to plug those holes via trade.

Cardinals

Though the Cardinals have been connected to Rodón, it was reported yesterday that they are unlikely to meet his asking price. That’s not exactly shocking as the largest contract in club history is the five-year, $130MM Paul Goldschmidt extension. The most they’ve ever given a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016. To suddenly jump up to $200MM would be quite a surprise. Their payroll for 2023 is also at $164MM, per Roster Resource, which is beyond last year’s figure and a match with their franchise high, per Cot’s. They may be willing to increase payroll this year, but going $30MM beyond their previous record would be a surprise.

The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year. Similar to the Twins and Giants, they could sign Rodón and then flip one of their current pitchers, but the financial situation is probably an obstacle.

Rangers

The Rangers were connected to Rodón as far back as October. At the time, it made perfect sense since the club’s rotation going into the winter consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch of crash test dummies. Since then, however, they have re-signed Martín Pérez, traded for Jake Odorizzi and signed free agents Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. That group, along with Gray and Dane Dunning, puts the club’s rotation in solid shape, certainly much better than 2022. The club reportedly met with Rodón after the deGrom signing, though that was shortly before the Heaney deal was announced.

The club could certainly sign Rodón and bump Odorizzi into a sixth starter/swingman role until someone gets hurt. However, the club’s CBT figure is currently $204MM, per Roster Resource. Adding Rodón would get them near or above the luxury tax threshold of $233MM. In terms of pure payroll, the club’s current $181MM figure is already more than $15MM beyond their previous franchise record, per Cot’s. Would they be willing to add another $30MM on top of that, when they are still looking for outfield upgrades as well?

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were connected to Rodón in a limited way, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. That signing and the club’s other moves have shot the payroll up to record heights and put them into luxury tax territory for the first time. Roster Resource puts their CBT figure just barely over the $233MM line. The $209MM payroll is well beyond last year’s $171MM, their previous high, per Cot’s.

The club’s current rotation would consist of Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and José Berríos, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White options for the back end. They are reportedly still open for upgrades, though adding a monster deal for Rodón seems unlikely when they are already so far into uncharted territory in terms of the finances. It’s much more likely they search for a more modest upgrade, as they were connected to Johnny Cueto yesterday.

Mets

The Mets reportedly met with Rodón back in late November, but they have since signed Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Those three, along with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, give the club a full rotation. The Mets are reportedly even thinking about trading Carrasco to open the final rotation slot for someone like David Peterson or Tylor Megill.

It would be foolish to completely rule the Mets out on anyone at this point, given that there doesn’t seem to be any limit to their spending. The payroll is already in record territory, with Roster Resource putting them down for $336MM and a CBT figure of $350MM. They are set to be second-time payors and are now paying a 90% tax on all spending since they are way beyond the top CBT line of $293MM. That means signing Rodón to a contract around $30MM per year would actually lead to the club paying about $60MM.

They have larger needs in the bullpen so spending huge money on Rodón doesn’t seem especially likely. However, they were just connected to Correa before he signed with the Giants, so maybe there’s still some big cash left on the pile.

Orioles

The Orioles are the best fit for Rodón in terms of long-term payroll. They have literally no one guaranteed any money for 2024. Of course, many of their players will earn arbitration salaries for that season, but they are committed to nothing. For 2023, Roster Resource pegs their payroll at a meager $52MM, less than what the Mets are set to pay in taxes alone.

The rotation could surely use an extra arm, as it currently consists of Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Kyle Bradish, Mike Baumann and DL Hall. Those guys all have limited track records and are still works in progress, apart from Gibson who was brought in as a veteran stabilizer. Prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely join the group at some point, as will John Means, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April. But there’s plenty of room for upgrades.

The main argument against a Rodón signing is the track record of the O’s under general manager Mike Elias. The club has been aggressively rebuilding and avoiding long-term commitments. The club’s last free agent signing longer than one-year was for Alex Cobb back in 2018, prior to the hire of Elias. It’s much more likely that they target a lower tier of free agency, in line with their Gibson signing and their reported interest in Michael Wacha.

Dodgers

The Dodgers were connected to Rodón back in November, but they have since agreed to terms with Noah Syndergaard. He slots into a rotation that also features Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, with prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove around as depth. There are injury concerns in there, as Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Syndergaard was healthy in 2022 but it was his first full season back from Tommy John and his velocity didn’t fully return.

It’s not impossible to think that they would add another starter, but they generally prefer short-term deals. They signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year deals last offseason and have done the same now with Syndergaard. The last time they signed a pitcher to a deal longer than three years was Brandon McCarthy’s four-year deal going into 2015. There have also been reports that they would like to reset their luxury tax status this year so that they can be a “first-time” payor for 2024. Roster Resource has their CBT number at $201MM. That’s well shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold, but Trevor Bauer is appealing his suspension at the moment. If he gets it overturned, that puts over $30MM back onto that number, taking up the space that they could theoretically use on Rodón. A decision on that is expected in the next month or so. Until they get clarity on that, they might avoid huge commitments.

Mystery Team

Perhaps some team that hasn’t been connected to Rodón in rumors will swoop in and surprise us all. The Rays are never big spenders but were apparently willing to consider splurging on Freddie Freeman last year and Brandon Nimmo this year. The Mariners have been surprisingly quiet this winter and could be open to trading Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Cubs have signed Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger this winter but haven’t yet made the big splash many expected. They’ve been often connected to the shortstops and could still go after Dansby Swanson but the rotation has plenty of question marks. The Padres have already spent a bunch but apparently just missed on Bassitt. Do they have one more surprise up their sleeve?

Which of these paths makes the most sense to you? Have your say in the poll below!

Who Will Sign Carlos Rodón?
Yankees 42.24% (6,291 votes)
Mystery Team 14.61% (2,176 votes)
Giants 9.17% (1,365 votes)
Twins 5.50% (819 votes)
Orioles 5.38% (801 votes)
Red Sox 5.06% (754 votes)
Rangers 4.32% (643 votes)
Cardinals 4.30% (640 votes)
Dodgers 3.96% (589 votes)
Mets 2.89% (431 votes)
Blue Jays 2.57% (383 votes)
Total Votes: 14,892

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Be The Yankees’ Shortstop In 2023?

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The Yankees shortstop position has been in a state of flux for over a year now. In September of 2021, manager Aaron Boone announced that Gleyber Torres would be moved over to second base. With that new vacancy, many expected the Yankees to acquire one of the five shortstops at the top of last year’s free agent class: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.

However, as the offseason got underway, reports emerged that the club wasn’t planning to focus its resources on the shortstop position. They had enough confidence in their young prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza they didn’t feel the need to hand out a lengthy contract to fill the position. Instead, they traded for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a glove-first player who had two years of relatively cheap control remaining.

Things went roughly according to plan in 2022, as Kiner-Falefa continued to hit at a below-average level but produced generally solid work with the glove. His .261/.314/.327 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 85, with all those numbers fairly close to his career marks. He made some defensive miscues in the postseason, but Defensive Runs Saved gave him a +10 in the regular season, tied for sixth among MLB shortstops for the year. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average were less enthused but still had him around league average. He’ll turn 28 in March.

One year later, it seems the long-term plan has not changed. There’s another crop of excellent shortstops this year, with Correa returning to the open market alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. But recent reporting still points to the Yankees having enough faith in their internal options to dedicate their offseason efforts elsewhere. The question that needs to be resolved now is exactly how strong that faith is. Is it time to hand the keys over to the kids or not?

One year ago, Peraza had just eight games of Triple-A experience under his belt. He was sent back to that level to start the 2022 season and eventually got into 99 games. In that time, he hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases. His batting line was .259/.329/.448 for a wRC+ of 106. He was promoted to the majors late in the season and got into 18 games there. He only went deep once but hit at a .306/.404/.429 level in that small sample for a wRC+ of 146. His batting average on balls in play was .302 in the minors but jumped to .359 in the majors, meaning those improved results seem unsustainable, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. He’ll turn 23 in June.

Volpe finished 2021 at High-A and started 2022 in Double-A. In 110 games there, he went deep 18 times and swiped 44 bags, producing a .251/.348/.472 batting line for a wRC+ of 122. He scuffled after a promotion to Triple-A, hitting just .236/.313/.404 for a wRC+ of 91, but in a small sample of just 22 games. He’ll turn 22 in April.

A surprise entrant into the mix is Oswaldo Cabrera. As a prospect, he wasn’t considered to be at the same level as Peraza and Volpe but he’s shot forward in recent years. In 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 29 home runs and stole 21 bases. His combined batting line was .272/.330/.533 for a wRC+ of 130. He was hitting well in Triple-A again in 2022 and got promoted to the big leagues. In 44 major league games, he hit .247/.312/.429 for a wRC+ of 111 while spending time at all four infield positions and the outfield corners. He’ll turn 24 in March.

With those youngsters being at or near the majors, it’s possible the Yankees don’t feel they need Kiner-Falefa anymore. They did just avoid arbitration with him by giving him a $6MM contract, but they could work out a trade if they feel secure enough in the other options. However, they could also keep IKF around just in case there’s any growing pains with the younger players, eventually sliding him into a utility role over time. Aside from Torres, the other infielders currently on the roster are on the older side, as Josh Donaldson is turning 37 next month while Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu will turn 34 and 35, respectively, during the next season. Regardless of who gets the starting shortstop job, the club will likely want to keep some depth on hand in case any of these players deal with injuries or underperformance, as they all did in 2022.

It’s likely that the job will be awarded based on meritocracy. Whoever plays the best in the spring and then into the regular season will continue to get the playing time. The others can be moved to utility/bench roles, spend more time in the minors or end up traded to another club. It does seem like the plan is likely to work out, as they just need one of these options to take the reins. By not dedicating a nine-figure contract to a shortstop, they will be able to use their financial resources to attempt to retain Aaron Judge and/or pursue other marquee free agents as they look to repeat at AL East champions in 2023.

But who do you think will charge forward as the everyday shortstop in 2023? Cabrera has the most MLB experience at this point but he comes with less prospect pedigree and seems easily capable of moving to other positions. Peraza seems to have little left to prove in the minors but he’s only played 18 MLB games. Volpe only just reached Triple-A but could burst onto the scene next year. Kiner-Falefa is still around if no one else takes the job. So, who will play the most games at shortstop for the Yankees in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

Who Will Play The Most Games At Shortstop For The Yankees In 2023?
Oswald Peraza 42.14% (4,050 votes)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 20.77% (1,996 votes)
Anthony Volpe 14.22% (1,367 votes)
don't know/someone else 13.84% (1,330 votes)
Oswaldo Cabrera 9.02% (867 votes)
Total Votes: 9,610

(poll link for app users)

The Dodgers’ Looming Decision On Justin Turner

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Since 2014, Justin Turner’s provided the Dodgers lineup with an elite bat and sound defense at the hot corner. Yet after a season that saw his output decline the veteran’s future in LA is up in the air. The Dodgers hold a $16MM team option for 2023 with a $2MM buyout, and according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, haven’t informed the 2022 winner of the Roberto Clemente Award of their decision yet.

It was a tale of two halves in 2022 for Turner. The buyout looked to be the heavy favorite at the All-Star break, as the 37-year-old posted just a .256/.331/.403 line with five home runs. It was vintage Turner after the break though, as he hit .319/.386/.503 with eight home runs to finish the season with 13 home runs and a .278/.350/.438 line. That still amounted to Turner’s worst offensive production since joining the Dodgers, but the strength of his second half has made the decision a tough one for the Dodgers’ front office. On the other side of the ball, Turner saw his defensive numbers decline, as he posted -2 Outs Above Average and -2.1 UZR. As a result, around half his appearances this season were at DH.

Turner’s option decision is, in fact, just one element of a complicated off-season for the left side of the Dodgers infield. The team will lose shortstop Trea Turner to free agency, while Max Muncy, who made 84 appearances at the hot corner, is under contract at $13.5MM. Muncy also scuffled at the plate in 2022, hitting .196/.329/.384 with 21 home runs but graded out better defensively with seven Defensive Runs Saved in 84 games at third base, and is also capable of manning second base.

The Dodgers may be hesitant commit $29MM to two players coming off of down years, particularly if they’re looking to make a serious bid to either re-sign their star shortstop or go after someone like Carlos Correa. Per RosterResource, the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll projects at around $176MM in 2023, though that’s before factoring in arbitration-eligible players. That leaves them with a fair bit of space to maneuver in before reaching this year’s mark, but the Dodgers do need to spend at the aforementioned shortstop position, solidify their rotation and they’ve been rumored to be in the market for Aaron Judge.

With that being said, it’s hard to imagine Turner in a different team’s uniform, and the Dodgers may well value his leadership and veteran presence enough that they bring him back, either via the team option or on a new, restructured contract. Plus, while Turner may be starting to decline, he’s still a productive player that was worth 2.4 fWAR in 2022. The Dodgers have until five days after the World Series to decide on Turner’s option, and while there’s a solid argument to be made either way, it still seems a good chance he’s back in Dodger blue in 2023.

Will the Dodgers pick up Justin Turner's team option?
No - but they'll re-sign him to a new contract 52.21% (3,731 votes)
No - he'll go to free agency 26.31% (1,880 votes)
Yes 21.48% (1,535 votes)
Total Votes: 7,146

Editor’s note: This post originally indicated Muncy’s option had yet to be exercised. The team preemptively exercised it in August when signing Muncy for an additional year.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Baseball’s new expanded playoff format has resulted in a unique David vs. Goliath matchup in the World Series.  In the first year of a sixth playoff team, the Phillies immediately became the first sixth seed to reach the Fall Classic, scoring upsets over the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres along the way to claim the National League pennant.  In the American League, the top-seeded Astros held serve and swept both the Mariners and Yankees for a perfect 7-0 record in these playoffs.

Ironically, the Phillies and Astros met in their final series of the regular season, and Philadelphia didn’t actually clinch its ticket to the postseason until a 3-0 win over Houston on October 3.  2022 was almost like two seasons in one for the Phillies, as the team held a 22-29 record when Joe Girardi was fired on June 3, yet the change to interim manager (and now full-time manager) Rob Thomson immediately provided a spark.  The Phils went 65-46 the rest of the way to earn their first postseason berth since 2011.

The roll has continued through October, with the Phillies knocking out three higher-seeded opponents due to a mix of strong pitching and timely hitting.  While several Philadelphia players have had heroic moments, the 2022 postseason is increasingly looking like Bryce Harper’s moment, as the slugger is batting .419/.444/.907 with five home runs during the playoffs.  Trailing the Padres 3-2 in the eighth inning of today’s Game 5, Harper crushed a two-run homer that put Philadelphia ahead for good in the 4-3 clinching victory, and unsurprisingly captured NLCS MVP honors.

Harper and the rest of the Phillies lineup will be challenged, however, by Houston’s dominant pitching staff.  The Astros have a collective 1.88 ERA over 72 postseason innings, with more strikeouts (89) than hits (46) and walks (21) combined.  The “weak link,” so to speak, is Justin Verlander with a 6.30 ERA over 10 innings, as Verlander was hit hard by the Mariners in Game 1 of the ALDS — however, the future Hall-of-Famer rebounded with a dominant six-inning performance against New York in Game 1 of the ALCS.

Considering how Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker have been struggling at the plate throughout October, the scariest part of Houston’s 7-0 record is that the team is arguably not even firing on all cylinders.  The Astros cruised to a 106-56 mark during the regular season and is now back in the World Series for the second consecutive year, and the fourth time in six years.  The only Series triumph came in 2017, and since that title is forever shrouded in controversy by the sign-stealing scandal, winning another championship might be the only way for the Astros to escape that cloud and earn more recognition as a mini-dynasty.

Houston is 1-3 in previous trips to the World Series, while the Phillies are 2-5 with their last championship coming in 2008.  This isn’t the first postseason meeting between the two franchises — back when the Astros were a National League team, Philadelphia and Houston met in the 1980 NLCS.  In what was when a five-game maximum, the Phillies needed all five games to barely outlast the Astros in a series regarded as a classic.  The Phils went on to win their first-ever World Series crown that same year, and Philly fans can only hope that karma repeats itself in this latest matchup against the Astros.

Who’s your pick to win?

(poll link for app users)

Who Wins The World Series?
Houston Astros 62.33% (17,383 votes)
Philadelphia Phillies 37.67% (10,506 votes)
Total Votes: 27,889

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

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The Yankees knocked off the Guardians by a 5-1 margin this evening, taking two elimination games to advance past Cleveland. New York is back in the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2019.

Awaiting them tomorrow: an Astros juggernaut that has had one of the better runs of playoff success in recent history. Houston has gotten to the ALCS in six straight seasons. The first of those seasons was their now-infamous run to a World Series that was later revealed to be aided by a sign-stealing operation. Houston has barely missed a beat in the half-decade since then, though, playing for the pennant every year. The Astros claimed the pennant in both 2019 and 2021 (eliminating the Yankees during the former season), and while they’ve not managed to win a World Series since 2017, they’ve joined the 1990’s Braves as the only teams to reach six consecutive Championship Series.

Houston has home field advantage after a 106-win regular season, claiming the AL’s top seed in the second half after an historically great first few months by the Yankees. The ’Stros swept their division-rival Mariners last week, earning three off days in the process. Their pitching staff should essentially be lined up as desired, and they’ll turn to presumptive Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander tomorrow evening. The Yankees will answer with Jameson Taillon for Game One after using top two starters Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes on Sunday and today, respectively, to survive the Guardians.

The Yankees, anchored by an all-time great season from Aaron Judge, led all American League teams with 807 runs scored. Houston finished third in that category, plating 737 runs. New York finished second in the Junior Circuit behind the Blue Jays in on-base percentage at .325, while the Astros placed fourth at .319. The Yankees finished second in slugging (again behind Toronto) at .426, while Houston was just behind at .424.

While New York had a slight advantage offensively, the Astros were clearly the best pitching team in the American League. They led the league with a 2.95 rotation ERA, a half-run better than the second-place Rays. New York came in third at 3.51. Astros and Yankees starters each fanned 24.8% of opponents (with the Astros leading the league by a fraction of a percentage point). Houston’s bullpen was also number one in strikeout percentage at 28.3%, while the Yankees checked in sixth at 24.2%. Houston (2.80) and New York (2.97) finished first and second, respectively, in bullpen ERA.

It’s a battle of the two teams that have looked to be the best in the American League, in some order, from start to finish. Yesterday, MLBTR readers weighed in on an NLCS that took the exact opposite form. In a battle of the Senior Circuit’s fifth and sixth seeds, the readership gave a 56-44 edge to the Padres over the Phillies.  We’ll now put forth the same question for the American League. Which team is headed to the World Series: Astros or Yankees?

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL Championship Series?
Astros 67.93% (6,594 votes)
Yankees 32.07% (3,113 votes)
Total Votes: 9,707

 

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