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MLBTR Poll: This Year’s NL MVP Race

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This could go down as an incredible couple of weeks for Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts. After helping the Dodgers to their first World Series title since 1988 last week, Betts was named a finalist for National League Most Valuable player honors Monday. If the Baseball Writers’ Association of America votes for Betts, the former Red Sox superstar will become the first player since the legendary Frank Robinson to win the MVP in both leagues. However, Betts has some stiff competition this year in the other two finalists – Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and Padres third baseman Manny Machado.

Before the 28-year-old Betts took home his second World Series title, he was the juggernaut Dodgers’ premier player during the regular season. Betts slashed .292/.562 (149 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, the NL’s highest bWAR (3.4) and its second-ranked fWAR (3.0) in 246 plate appearances. You also can’t overlook Betts’ value in the field, as he led NL outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved (10) and came in second in Ultimate Zone Rating (5.7).

Freeman, meanwhile, went on an offensive rampage all season, especially during a September in which he recorded a remarkable 1.246 OPS in 96 at-bats. That month helped Freeman to an overall .341/.462/.640 line with 13 homers over 262 PA. Freeman was first in his league in fWAR (3.4), second in bWAR (2.8) and second in wRC+ (187).

Alongside shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who arguably had an MVP-caliber season of his own, Machado gave the Padres an all-world left side of the infield in 2020. Thanks in large part to those two, the Padres made the postseason for the first time since 2006. But it’s Machado who’s now drawing MVP consideration, and he’s certainly a deserving candidate. In his second season as a Padre, Machado hit .304/.370/.500 (148 wRC+) with 16 HRs and six steals in 254 PA. He ranked third among NL position players in bWAR (2.8) and sixth in fWAR (2.6).

Is one of these three the obvious choice, or will it be difficult for voters to make a decision? Make your choice below…

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’s Your AL MVP?

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Angels center fielder Mike Trout will not get to defend his 2019 American League Most Valuable player honors in this year’s balloting. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America released its AL MVP finalists Monday, and despite another brilliant year, Trout didn’t make the cut. Instead, the voters will decide among Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez, Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu and White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu.

Ramirez didn’t look like a contender for the award heading into the season’s final month, but the tear he went on in September put him on the map and may make him the favorite. The 28-year-old posted a video game-like 1.294 OPS with 10 home runs in 82 at-bats in the year’s last few weeks to help the Indians to the playoffs. He ended the regular season with a .292/.386/.607 line (good for a 163 wRC+), 17 homers, 10 steals, an AL-leading 3.4 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR over 254 plate appearances.

The only two AL position players who beat out Ramirez in bWAR were LeMahieu and Abreu, who tied for a league-high 2.8. It was a dream contract year showing for LeMahieu, who’s now a free agent. Once he turns down the Yankees’ qualifying offer, he’ll hit the market fresh off a season as arguably the most productive hitter in his league. The 32-year-old won a batting title, paced the AL in wRC+ (177), slashed .364/.421/.590 with 10 HRs, and finished fifth among AL position players in fWAR (2.5) across 216 trips to the plate.

Meanwhile, the White Sox’s decision to re-sign Abreu last offseason couldn’t have paid off much more than it did in 2020. Abreu was instrumental in the White Sox’s first playoff berth since 2008, as the franchise icon batted .317/.370/.617 (167 wRC+) in 262 PA. He also ended up second in the AL in homers (19) and third in fWAR (2.6).

After digesting all of those numbers, which of the three do you think deserves this year’s MVP honors? Cast your vote below …

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: NL Cy Young Finalists

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With voting season in full swing, the The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced finalists for several high-profile awards on Monday. The National League Cy Young was among them, leaving this year’s voters to decide among the Reds’ Trevor Bauer, the Cubs’ Yu Darvish and the Mets’ Jacob deGrom. The question is: Which right-hander do you think they should choose?

When it came to preventing runs in 2020, no qualified NL starter was superior to Bauer, now a free agent whose platform year came at an ideal time. The 29-year-old easily paced his league in ERA (1.73). He also ranked second in the NL in strikeouts per nine (12.33), third in K/BB ratio (5.88) and fWAR (2.5), fourth in bWAR (2.7), fifth in FIP (2.88) and sixth in innings (73).

Darvish equaled Bauer’s bWAR, but he upended him in the fWAR category (3.0; first). The resurgent 34-year-old also finished No. 1 in his league in FIP (2.23) while placing near the top in ERA (2.01; second), BB/9 (1.66; second), innings (76; third) and K/9 (11.01; eighth).

And there’s simply no slowing down deGrom, who’s the back-to-back winner of this award. The 32-year-old didn’t have the quite workload of Bauer or Darvish, as deGrom dealt with some injuries and wound up with 68 innings. As always, though, he was dominant. DeGrom finished first in K/9 (13.76), second in FIP (2.23) and fWAR (2.26), fourth in ERA (2.38) and K/BB ratio (5.78), and seventh in bWAR (2.6).

Looking at the exemplary numbers these three posted in 2020, it appears voters are going to have a hard time settling on a pick. There’s no wrong answer among the three, but which one do you prefer? (Poll link for app users)

The A’s Have Some Tough Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Heading into the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien appeared poised to become one of the market’s top free agents. Then 29 years of age, Semien was fresh off an MVP-caliber 2019 campaign fueled by a breakout at the plate and continued improvement upon his once-shaky defensive reputation at second base. Semien posted a huge .285/.369/.522 slash with a career-best 33 homers, 10 steals and defense strong enough to make him a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.

The 2020 season, however, has been another story entirely. In 236 plate appearances, he turned in a .223/.305/.374 batting line with seven homers and four steals. Semien’s 10.6 percent walk rate was the second-best of his career, trailing only last year’s breakout, but he went the wrong direction in virtually every other category. His strikeout rate jumped from 13.7 percent to 21.2 percent — his highest mark since 2017 — while his isolated power dipped from .237 to .152. Semien’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dropped considerably.

Marcus Semien | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In the field, Semien went from +12 Defensive Runs Saved to -5. Outs Above Average wasn’t particularly kind to his 2020 work, either (-4). It’s worth mentioning that Ultimate Zone Rating still pegged him as a plus defender, with his 4.8 UZR/150 nearly matching the prior season’s 5.0. On a more rudimentary level, Semien made seven errors in 451 innings in 2020 compared to just 12 errors in 1435 frames a year ago.

The difficulty of evaluating players’ successes and failures in a wholly unique 2020 season is plain to see. But for both the A’s and for other clubs who may hold interest in Semien, it’s particularly challenging. Anything close to his 2019 output would’ve made him a lock to receive an $18.9MM qualifying offer, but the Oakland org now must wonder whether he’d accept such an offer and whether they’d want him back at that rate. Other clubs will be left to wonder whether the 2019 season was a fluky outlier or whether he was on player on the rise whose 2020 struggles can be attributed to myriad factors associated with this unprecedented season.

Perhaps further complicating matters for the A’s is that they have a second player who looks worth of a qualifying offer: closer Liam Hendriks. Such a notion would’ve sounded laughable as recently as 2018, when Hendriks was put through outright waivers and went unclaimed. However, he’s come back with a vengeance and emerged not only as Oakland’s closer but as the top free-agent reliever on this year’s market and one of the best relievers in the game, period.

Liam Hendriks Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past two seasons, Hendriks has a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, 1.70 FIP and 2.95 xFIP with averages of 13.1 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s posted a superhuman 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate — including a 19 percent rate in 2020. Meanwhile, he induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 38.1 percent this year (35.1 percent dating back ti ’19). That he was named reliever of the year in the American League came as little surprise.

On many clubs, making a qualifying offer to Hendriks would be a no-brainer. However, the A’s perennially operate with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and are just months removed from having to be publicly pressured into paying their minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend. An $18.9MM salary on a reliever could well be something they’re not prepared to risk. From Hendriks’ vantage point, he’s just north of $12MM in career earnings, so an $18.9MM paycheck would surely be tempting.

At the same time, Hendriks surely took note when a less-dominant reliever, left-hander Will Smith, rejected a qualifying offer last year and still secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. If his camp believes such a deal is out there, then rejecting would be a better move; even in a worst-case scenario, he’d surely be able to command a sizable one-year deal in free agency — albeit likely not at that $18.9MM level. But if Hendriks believes the downside of rejecting a qualifying offer is, say, a one-year deal at $10MM, he’d be risking the $8.9MM difference for a multi-year deal that guarantees him perhaps $20MM or more beyond the value of the qualifying offer.

All of this, of course, could be a moot point. The A’s might decide that they don’t want to risk a qualifying offer for either player. They’re already on the hook for $16.5MM to Khris Davis, $7.25MM to Stephen Piscotty and $4MM to Jake Diekman next year. They’ll also see both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson receive sizable salary bumps as they enter arbitration for the first time — the headliners in a class which also features Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Frankie Montas, among others. Projecting arbitration salaries for that bunch is trickier than ever given the shortened season and revenue losses, but they should command more than $20MM.

There are some split camps on how the A’s will proceed on this front. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested on the former’s podcast last week that they still feel there’s a good chance Semien will receive an offer. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently, however, that a qualifying offer for Semien may not be realistic given the heft of that would-be salary.

The A’s were already slated to head into the 2020 season with what would’ve been a record payroll, just north of $100MM, prior to prorating this year’s salaries. Between the guarantees to Davis, Piscotty and Diekman; the arbitration raises to Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt, Canha and Montas; and the would-be $18.9MM salaries to Semien and Hendriks (should they accept), the A’s would already be close to $90MM. That’s before factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster and any offseason additions they might hope to make.

Frankly, it’s difficult to see this club being willing to take this type of risk, although there’s an argument to be made in favor of both. A one-year deal for Semien would prove to be a nice value, for instance, if he rebounds to something between his 2019 and 2020 levels. And Smith’s contract with the Braves last year certainly lends credence to the idea that Hendriks could reject, which would give the A’s a valuable compensatory draft pick if he departs.

Let’s open this up for MLBTR readers to weigh in on a pair of questions:

Should the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)


Will the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Should The Astros Give Michael Brantley A Qualifying Offer?

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The World Series will come to an end next week, meaning teams will soon have to decide whether to tag their impending free agents with the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. If a team makes a player a QO which that player rejects, the team will be entitled to some form of draft compensation if the player departs in free agency.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently ran down the qualifying offer outlook for both position players and pitchers. As is the case every year, some players are candidates to receive a QO but might plausibly accept if offered. One such player is Astros outfielder Michael Brantley.

One of the sport’s most consistently productive hitters over his tenure in Cleveland, Brantley reached free agency following the 2018 season. Surprisingly, the Indians elected not to make him a qualifying offer, forgoing the opportunity to receive compensation if he signed elsewhere. Brantley did just that, inking a two-year, $32MM contract with Houston.

Brantley continued to perform over the course of that deal. In 824 plate appearances as an Astro, he’s put up a robust .309/.370/.497 slash line (134 wRC+). He remains one of the league’s tougher batters to strike out and his all-fields approach has helped him sustain strong batting averages on balls in play. Brantley doesn’t put up eye-popping peak exit velocities, but he’s been remarkably adept at avoiding weak contact and mishits.

On the other hand, Brantley’s 33 years old (34 in May) and limited to left field and/or designated hitter. He’ll need to continue to hit at an extremely high level to remain a valuable player. The left-handed hitter holds his own against southpaws but is hardly elite in that regard (career .275/.331/.373 line against LHP). In a market rife with uncertainty (and perhaps flooded with alternatives from non-tenders), the earning power of players like Brantley could be limited.

The Astros’ payroll might be an issue, as well. Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and José Altuve each have sizable contracts on the books already, and there are a few notable arbitration raises to consider. Potentially losing all of George Springer (who’s a slam dunk QO decision), Brantley and Josh Reddick to free agency, the Houston front office will have to address the outfield in some form this offseason. They just might choose to do so more cheaply than by making an $18.9MM offer to Brantley.

Turning it over to MLBTR readers, how should GM James Click proceed?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The National League Have The DH In 2021?

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For the first time since 1972, both the American League and National League played a season under a uniform set of rules.  The institution of the universal designated hitter was one of several concessions made to the unusual circumstances of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, as with pitchers already facing a heightened injury risk from a lack of normal preseason preparation time, the decision was made to spare the pitchers the extra stress of hitting.  Both the league and the players’ union agreed that the DH would become a full-time feature of National League baseball for the first time ever.

What was the reaction?  Well, it probably depended on how you felt about the DH in the first place.  It didn’t quite stand out as much as other oddities of 2020 baseball (i.e. the automatic runner on second base in extra innings, or seven-inning games in doubleheaders) since the DH has been part of the game for almost 50 years, yet some fans of National League teams surely felt unusual watching games played in their favorite team’s ballpark without a pitcher coming to the plate.  If you’re a fan of the Dodgers, Braves, or Padres, you probably learned to love the DH — having an extra lineup spot to house a big bat was a key reason why these three playoff-bound clubs scored the most runs of any team in baseball.

DH-free baseball has long been on the decline at many levels of the game, and the thought was that the universal designated hitter would eventually become part of Major League Baseball.  With the current collective bargaining agreement expiring after the 2021 season, it has long been assumed that the universal DH would be one of the many issues to be debated between the owners and players.  The 2020 implementation was considered to be a first step in that direction, and since the experiment seemed to work well, could the league and the MLBPA simply skip ahead and make the designated hitter permanent in National League baseball?

It won’t be quite so easy, of course.  Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that all rule changes applied only to the 2020 season, so any further changes like a universal DH would have to be settled after another round of negotiation between the league and the players.  With the CBA talks looming and the contentious tone of the negotiations prior to the start of the shortened season still lingering, there may be no such thing as an “easy” decision between MLB and the MLBPA these days.  It is quite likely that the league will try to gain some concessions from the union in exchange for the universal DH, and given how loathe the players have been to concede any ground to the owners, it may be difficult to find common ground on one relatively small issue without opening the larger can of worms that is the myriad of questions facing the sport in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Manfred’s statement about the DH and likelihood of a 2021 rules reset could also be a way of addressing the concerns of National League general managers.  As the Padres’ A.J. Preller recently noted in regards to his team’s club option with Mitch Moreland, the Padres are a little unsure about how to proceed with deciding on Moreland or other roster matters until they know whether or not the designated hitter slot will be available.  If the rules will revert to their pre-2020 state, Manfred was essentially telling Preller and company to prepare as if there won’t be a DH….until, maybe, there is?

As we get closer to Opening Day 2021, MLB will have a better idea of how (or if) the next season will proceed, whether that manifests in another shortened season, fans in the stands, or many other factors related to the state of the pandemic.  It could be that the 2020 rules are re-implemented around, say, early March if it becomes apparent that a normal 162-game schedule isn’t feasible.

But, many player agents and MLBPA members are undoubtedly aware that the lack of a DH spot will mean fewer roster opportunities for players this offseason.  Players like Moreland could have their options declined, defensively-challenged veterans will be less in demand, and even some of the bigger-name designated hitters will again see their markets limited to the American League.  Like MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in regards to Nelson Cruz, the slugger’s desire for a two-year contract would be much easier to find if all 30 teams were candidates (at least on paper) to sign Cruz this winter.

With all these factors in mind, do you think the league and the players will work out a deal for a universal DH in 2021, or will the National League get at least one more years of pitchers at the plate? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

MLBTR Poll: Veteran Free-Agent Shortstops

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Next year’s group of free agents is scheduled to feature a star-studded group of shortstops, as Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez are all due to reach the open market then. The upcoming winter’s shortstop class pales in comparison to that bunch, but there are still a few household names set to become available. As far as veterans go, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to sign this offseason?

The qualifying offer could serve as an impediment for all three players, as each could conceivably receive one. There may not be a better candidate for a QO among the trio than Gregorius, a 30-year-old who’s coming off his latest effective season with the Phillies. He was a key part of the Yankees’ roster from 2015-18, combining for 14.6 fWAR, before taking a step back in ’19 during a year cut short by Tommy John surgery on his left elbow.

Semien, also 30, has enjoyed the greatest peak season of anyone in this group. He was a 7.6-fWAR player with Oakland back in 2019, but Semien was an average to slightly above-average contributor in the years preceding that, and he fell back to earth in 2020.

Simmons, who turned 31 next month, has never been an offensive juggernaut, but a combination of respectable work with the bat and all-world defense have propelled him to a stellar career with the Braves and Angels. There’s no denying Simmons is one of the greatest defenders in recent memory at any position, which could serve him well as a free agent.

In a vacuum, Gregorius looks like the best choice here. He’s most likely to command a multiyear deal and a qualifying offer, but that doesn’t mean every team would prefer him over Semien or Simmons. Keep in mind that Semien and Simmons may not be saddled with a QO, which could make one or both more appealing than Gregorius. All things considered, then, which of these established shortstops would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Marcell Ozuna’s Next Contract

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Outfielder Marcell Ozuna just wrapped up a dream season as a member of the Braves, with whom he slashed .338/.431/.606 and totaled a National League-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances. The Braves couldn’t have expected better than that when they signed Ozuna, a former Marlin and Cardinal, to a one-year, $18MM contract last January. Unfortunately for Atlanta, though, it could lose Ozuna in the coming weeks.

While Ozuna didn’t make out as hoped in free agency an offseason ago, this winter could be a different story. With the offseason looming, Ozuna stands out as one of the absolute best hitters who could become available soon. He also won’t be dealing with a qualifying offer, which helped weigh down his market a year ago. The main issue is whether the universal designated hitter will stick around, as that could impact how many NL teams pursue Ozuna on the open market. While Ozuna has spent his entire career in the NL, the Braves mostly deployed him as a DH in 2020.

Regardless of his defensive questions, Ozuna should have a lot of offense-needy teams after him in the offseason. Along with his bottom-line production, which has consistently been better than average, Ozuna is something of a Statcast favorite.The Braves have said they’d like to re-sign Ozuna, but whether it’s them or another team, how much do you think he’ll earn on his next contract?

(Poll link for app users)

Bigger Contract: George Springer Or J.T. Realmuto?

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Barring extensions over the next couple of weeks, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and Astros outfielder George Springer will enter free agency as the two best position players on the open market. Realmuto is by far the premier catcher slated to reach free agency, where other options such as James McCann (White Sox) and Yadier Molina (Cardinals) will pale in comparison. Likewise, Springer’s easily the top center field-capable player who could soon become available. The question now is whether Realmuto or Springer will make more on his next contract.

Realmuto, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who has been the majors’ most valuable catcher since 2017, has an opportunity to set a record in terms of annual earnings at his position. Former Twin Joe Mauer holds the record at eight years and $184MM on the extension he signed in 2010. Realmuto doesn’t seem to stand much chance of eclipsing Mauer’s total guarantee, but the $23MM per annum the ex-Minnesota standout raked in appears to be a realistic target.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Springer earn a similar amount on a yearly basis. Although he is older than Realmuto (31), Springer has been a star-level performer since his career began in 2014. And dating back to last season, Springer has slashed .284/.376/.576 with 53 home runs. He ranks seventh among qualified hitters in wRC+ (153) and ninth in fWAR (8.4) since 2019.

Unlike Realmuto, Springer probably isn’t going to set any kind of record for earning power at his position. However, that doesn’t mean Springer won’t out-earn Realmuto on a five- or six-year deal (which MLBTR expects the two to receive). Both players will be saddled with qualifying offers, but that shouldn’t dim teams’ enthusiasm if and when they hit the market. Which player do you think will wind up with a higher guarantee on his next pact?

(Poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business last night against he Atlanta Braves to win their third pennant in the last four seasons. Corey Seager took home NLCS MVP honors, but it was Enrique Hernandez and Cody Bellinger coming up with big home runs in the sixth and seventh innings to seal the win. Our 2020 World Series matchup is now set, as the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Dodgers, beginning with a pair of Dodgers’ home games (at Globe Life Field in Texas) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odd at it sounds, it’s rare to see each league’s top seed make it to the World Series in the same season. This year’s match-up achieves even rarer air, however. The Rays and Dodgers boast the highest combined regular-season winning percentage of any World Series contenders all-time, per Stats by STATS. There is, of course, the short season caveat, but the 2020 World Series nonetheless pits two sterling contenders against one another in what should/could be a real barnburner.

In one corner, we have the small market Rays. Run by the finest wunderkinds MLB can offer, this era of Rays baseball has been known for three things: innovation, ridiculously strong farm systems, and a front office of baseball wizards who have thrice been poached by large market clubs (Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers). The best of the Rays prospect pool remains on the farm (Wander Franco), but less-heralded stars like Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Ji-Man Choi, Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Joey Wendle, Pete Fairbanks, and others have led the Rays to the World Series. Lest you think they’re merely a ragtag group of underdogs, remember that Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, and Blake Snell make up a surprisingly star-studded rotation for these “measly” Rays.

With manager Kevin Cash pulling the strings, Tampa finished 12th in runs scored during the regular season, 9th in wRC+, and 9th in batter fWAR. Arozarena, Choi, and somehow, Mike Zunino have steered the ship for the offense in the postseason thus far. They’ll look to get more from Lowe at the top of the order, and rest easy in knowing they don’t need to outscore the world forever, they just need to outscore the Dodgers in 4 games. The pitching should help in that regard, as their 3.56 team ERA was third in the majors.

The Dodgers, of course, boast a 3.02 team ERA during the regular season, the top mark in the majors. They also hit more home runs and scored more runs than any other team in the majors over the 60-game season. After coming back from a 3-1 NLCS deficit, they’ve now checked the ’faced adversity’ box as well. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger lead a star-studded offense, while Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler should be ready to start the first two games of the series. With rest days built in, the Dodgers’ ace duo should be more available to the Dodgers than at any other time this postseason.

And of course, there’s Andrew Friedman, the architect of these Dodgers who came to run a large market behemoth with the restraint and attention-to-detail he used to run the Rays. There aren’t gimmicks here, it’s just process building and sound decision-making. The philosophy works, and now we can sit back and enjoy the show as Friedman’s old team takes on his new one.

Let’s keep this simple, baseball fans: who is going to win the World Series? (Poll link for app users)

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