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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Lance Lynn Trade

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This has not been an especially active Winter Meetings week, but the Rangers and White Sox did swing a major trade on its first night. The deal saw Chicago acquire right-hander Lance Lynn from Texas in exchange for righty Dane Dunning and lefty Avery Weems.

It was an aggressive move by the White Sox, who just reached the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Lynn finished near the top of the American League in Cy Young voting in each of his two seasons with the Rangers, so he should help give the White Sox rotation one of the majors’ best top threes. They already had Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel, who joined Lynn among the AL’s most effective starters in 2020. Lynn will now reunite with new manager Tony La Russa, who was the Cardinals’ skipper when the hurler debuted in 2011.

While Lynn has long been a quality arm, another plus is his highly affordable salary for 2021. With $8MM coming his way next season, the 33-year-old won’t make much of a dent in Chicago’s payroll. The problem is that the White Sox did have to surrender a couple of promising younger pitchers to acquire him.

Dunning, a former first-round pick, made his big league debut last season after a rather impressive minor league tenure. The 25-year-old held his own in Chicago, where he logged a 3.97 ERA/3.99 FIP with 9.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate in seven starts and 34 innings. That’s a small sample size, but Dunning’s track record makes it easy for the Rangers to dream that he will be a key cog on their roster. He’s under control for six more seasons, so it’s possible Dunning will be in the Lone Star State for the long haul.

Weems does not seem to have Dunning’s potential, nor has he appeared in the majors yet, but he also has a chance to be a useful piece. The 2019 sixth-round pick from the University of Arizona shut down rookie ball hitters that year, when he recorded an outstanding 2.09 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 60 1/3 frames. Baseball America’s Josh Norris wrote after the Lynn trade that Weems’ future is probably as a reliever, but he “could move quickly to the upper levels.”

The White Sox are clearly banking on Lynn’s presence helping them contend for a World Series title in 2021, whereas the Rangers – who are in a rebuild – acquired two controllable players in letting him go. How do you think the two teams fared in the deal? (Poll links for app users: White Sox, Rangers)

MLBTR Poll: Gary Sanchez’s Yankees Future

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By next Wednesday’s non-tender deadline, the Yankees will have to make a decision on how to proceed with Gary Sánchez. The 27-year-old (28 next week) originally signed with the New York organization as an international amateur back in 2009. He emerged as a top prospect and burst onto the MLB scene with an otherworldly final two months in 2016. He finished as runner-up in AL Rookie of the Year voting that year after hitting 20 home runs in just 229 plate appearances.

Sánchez backed that up with an elite 2017 season that saw him garner some down-ballot MVP support. After an injury-hampered, disappointing 2018 effort, Sánchez seemingly reemerged as one of the game’s premier catchers in 2019. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off completely in 2020, as he hit .147/.253/.365 with a woeful 36% strikeout rate. By the postseason, Sánchez had mostly fallen behind Kyle Higashioka on the depth chart.

He’s also drawn his share of criticism for his work behind the plate. Some of that is deserved, as his 52 passed balls over the past five seasons leads the sport. Sánchez generally rated as a slightly below-average pitch framer as well. But his rocket arm has helped him cut down 32.6% of attempted basestealers in his career, well above the league average of 27.2%. Altogether, he’s a generally average defensive catcher in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (although he did rate rather poorly in 2020).

So, how to proceed with a player who has had his share of ups and downs? Over his career, Sánchez has been plenty productive in the Bronx. His .236/.320/.502 career slash line works out to a 117 wRC+, indicating he’s been seventeen points better than the league average hitter. Among qualified catchers, only Yasmani Grandal has edged out Sánchez offensively since the latter broke into the league. Sánchez’s projected $5.1MM – $6.4MM arbitration salary would be a bargain if he can rediscover that form at the plate. But the backstop’s most recent season was atrocious, leaving the Yankees’ front office in a bind.

There isn’t another clear fit at catcher on the current roster. A team with World Series aspirations can’t feel comfortable turning the primary job over to Higashioka. Free agency offers a few options. J.T. Realmuto is the prize, but James McCann and Yadier Molina look like potential regulars. (The Yankees have shown some interest in Molina already). To non-tender Sánchez would be a tough blow, though, considering how recently he looked like a franchise cornerstone. They could explore the trade market, but Sánchez isn’t exactly teeming with surplus value, as Craig Edwards of FanGraphs recently explored.

Assuming opposing teams aren’t willing to give up much value in trade, where should GM Brian Cashman and the front office go from here?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Shortstop Trade Candidates

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It’s early in the offseason, but three star shortstops have already been mentioned as trade candidates. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor, the Rockies’ Trevor Story and the Astros’ Carlos Correa each seem to have at least a small chance of ending up on the move this winter. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to acquire?

There isn’t a more accomplished member of the trio than Lindor, a 27-year-old who has already earned four All-Star nods and a pair of Gold Glove Awards since his career began in 2015. If you’re looking for flaws, though, the switch-hitting Lindor isn’t coming off a stellar year at the plate, as he slashed .258/.335/.415 (good for a league-average 100 wRC+) with eight home runs and six stolen bases in 266 trips. He also comes with potentially the biggest price tag of the three players, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary between $17.5MM and $21MM for his final year of team control.

Story, 28, had a better year than Lindor and Correa in 2019, slashing .289/.355/.519 (117 wRC+) with 11 homers and 15 steals across 259 plate appearances. It was the third straight exemplary season for Story, a two-time All-Star who’s also a year from free agency. Story’s locked in for a $17.5MM salary next season after signing a two-year, $27.5MM extension before 2020.

Correa is also slated to be part of next winter’s standout class of free-agent shortstops. In the meantime, he’ll rake in the lowest salary (between $8MM and $10.2MM) next year. The 26-year-old’s name hit the rumor mill earlier this week, though the Astros reportedly aren’t in active negotiations to trade him. If they were, they wouldn’t be aiming to sell high on Correa, who was uncharacteristically pedestrian at the plate in 2020. Correa wound up with a line of .264/.326/.383 (97 wRC+) and five HRs in 221 PA. The good news is that he stayed healthy after three consecutive injury-limited, albeit more productive, seasons.

All three of these well-known shortstops are nearing free agency, so any of them could be involved in trades before the 2021 campaign. Considering their production and their salaries, which one would you want?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Braves’ Recent Signings

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The Braves have easily been the offseason’s most active team in the early going. Atlanta has made a pair of rotation additions, signing southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal and bringing in Charlie Morton for one year at $15MM.

Single-year terms has become a staple of the Alex Anthopoulos regime in Atlanta. They’ve had plenty of success with short-term additions of Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna, but last winter’s Cole Hamels signing didn’t pan out as the left-hander’s year was derailed by injury. The front office decided to roll the dice on a new pair of veteran hurlers after coming up one game shy of a pennant in 2020.

Each of Morton and Smyly was indeed projected by the MLBTR staff to ink one-year deals this winter. However, both pitchers pulled in a bit more money than anticipated during what is widely expected to be a frigid offseason in the wake of teams suffering massive revenue losses. Morton picked up $7MM more than anticipated, while Smyly’s deal came in $6MM above expectation.

There are plenty of reasons the Braves’ front office decided to jump the market on these specific pitchers. Morton put up ace-caliber numbers from 2017-19 and rounded back into form down the stretch after a difficult start this past season. Smyly has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career but flashed a new level for the Giants in 2020. The 31-year-old showed massively improved raw stuff and generated whiffs in bunches en route to a 2.01 FIP. He’ll need to prove he can sustain those gains for more than 26.1 innings, but it’s easy to see the upside.

One other factor worth considering: the qualifying offer. Neither Morton nor Smyly has received one in the past, meaning they’ll be eligible for the QO next winter if they spend the entire season in Atlanta.  It’s not especially likely either player warrants a QO in eleven months. Morton would be entering his age-38 season and might not even wish to keep playing; Smyly’s a year removed from a 6.24 ERA season. But the same would’ve been true of Kevin Gausman a year ago, and he sufficiently rehabilitated his value during his platform year to earn a qualifying offer from the Giants this offseason.

So, how do MLBTR readers feel about the Braves’ two new additions? Grade each deal from the team’s perspective. (poll links for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?

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Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.

In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.

Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season.  That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.

Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.

Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.

If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.

There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.

Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.

So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Potential Shakeup For Cubs

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This could be an offseason of significant change for the Cubs, who may be looking to shake things up after a disappointing finish to the 2020 campaign. The Cubs earned their first NL Central title since 2017, but they succumbed to the upstart Marlins in a two-game sweep during the wild-card round. Now, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein could be looking to reinvent the Cubs’ roster. As Buster Olney of ESPN reported over the weekend, the Cubs are willing “to move almost any veteran.”

It seems more likely that any major subtractions will come from the Cubs’ lineup, not their pitching staff, which features 2020 Cy Young contender Yu Darvish and the bargain-priced Kyle Hendricks. It looks even less probable that reliever Craig Kimbrel, who’s owed a guaranteed $17MM through next season, will end up in a trade.

On the offensive side, it’s realistic to think that any of catcher Willson Contreras, shortstop Javier Baez, third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or left fielder Kyle Schwarber could be on the move. All of those players have been staples for the Cubs for years, but their days could be numbered if the team’s looking to cut payroll and tinker with its lineup.

The 28-year-old Contreras is coming off his fifth straight productive campaign and, as someone who should make between $5MM and $7.4MM in his second-last season of arbitration, would have value in a trade. Baez was a star middle infielder from 2018-19, but the 27-year-old’s production cratered this past season, and he’ll earn around $11MM in his final trip through arbitration. The 28-year-old Bryant, like Baez, went through a surprisingly difficult 2020. A former NL MVP, Bryant may even be a non-tender candidate, as he’s slated to earn approximately $19MM in his last year of arbitration control. Schwarber, who’s due anywhere from $7MM to $9.3MM, could also be a high-profile non-tender in the wake of a poor season.

Ideally for the Cubs, they’ll be able to find takers for any of these players if they actually are considering moving on from them. Whether it’s via trade or non-tender, though, which player from the Contereras-Baez-Bryant-Schwarber group do you think the Cubs are most likely to get rid of this offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?

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The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team.  That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.

There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market.  For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency.  Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.

Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract?  (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.)  All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.

For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments.  A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options.  A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.

But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first.  As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible.  In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).

With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring.  If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.

Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Kevin Gausman’s Qualifying Offer Decision

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Kevin Gausman has until November 11 to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer he was issued by the Giants. Should he accept, he’ll return to San Francisco on a one-year, $18.9MM deal. That wouldn’t foreclose the possibility of a multi-year extension with San Francisco, just as José Abreu and the White Sox brokered a three-year contract after Abreu accepted Chicago’s QO last winter. Rejecting the qualifying offer might pave the way for multi-year offers from other clubs, though. Gausman and his representatives have surely been gauging the market the past few days to shape their decision.

There’s a case to be made for Gausman as the second-best starter on the open market. The right-hander pitched to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59.2 innings this past season. His 32.2% strikeout rate ranked eleventh in baseball (minimum 50 innings pitched), topped only by Trevor Bauer’s 36% among free agents. Gausman finished tenth overall in strikeout minus walk rate and seventh in swinging strike rate. On a per-pitch basis, only Jacob deGrom, Lucas Giolito, Kenta Maeda, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo and Gerrit Cole generated more whiffs. Gausman truly was among the game’s elite at fooling opposing hitters.

Moreover, he’s also one of the harder-throwing starting pitchers available. Gausman averaged north of 95 MPH on his heater last season, per Brooks Baseball. He got elite results on both the fastball and his signature splitter. Gausman didn’t find a breaking ball he was comfortable using frequently, a problem that has hampered him throughout his career. That didn’t seem to matter, though, as he was highly effective regardless.

Of course, teams aren’t solely factoring in a player’s performance in his platform year. That’s all the more true in a significantly shortened season. Gausman’s only a season removed from posting a 5.72 ERA over 102.1 innings, contributing to the Reds’ decision to non-tender him last winter rather than pay him approximately $10.6MM to return in 2020. Some of the underlying metrics at the time hinted at a potential rebound but it was nevertheless a surprise to see him perform at such a high level this past season. Gausman’s less consistent track record could lead to some trepidation on teams’ parts, particularly since signing him would cost them draft compensation at the very least.

It’s also worth considering whether next winter’s market would present a more favorable environment. Teams aren’t expected to spend aggressively this winter in the wake of massive revenue losses. Next offseason might still have COVID-19 effects, and there’ll be anticipated labor uncertainty with the scheduled expiration of the collective bargaining agreement in December 2021 (although it’s possible MLB and the MLBPA broker a short-term CBA extension in the wake of the pandemic).

Gausman would be one year older next offseason obviously, but he’ll only turn 30 in January 2021. He’d still be young enough to secure a lofty multi-year deal if he accepts the qualifying offer, then backs up 2020 with another strong season. The CBA prohibits players from being offered multiple qualifying offers in their careers, so Gausman will never have to wrestle with this decision again, no matter what he decides in the coming days.

In our top 50 free agents list, the MLBTR staff predicted Gausman would indeed accept the qualifying offer. We’ll turn things over to the readership with a pair of questions: should Gausman take the qualifying offer, and will he do so?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: AL Rookie of the Year Finalists

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We have been polling MLBTR readers on this year’s Major League Baseball awards finalists throughout the week (minus the American League Cy Young, which will belong to the Indians’ Shane Bieber). We’ll conclude with the AL Rookie of the Year, an honor that will go to either Mariners center fielder Kyle Lewis, White Sox center fielder Luis Robert or Astros right-hander Cristian Javier. Here’s a look at what they did in 2020…

  • The 25-year-old Lewis had a big season at the plate, hitting .262/.364/.434 (126 wRC+) with 11 home runs, five stolen bases and 1.7 fWAR/1.4 bWAR in 242 plate appearances.
  • Robert, 23, got off to hot offensive start before fading. He still ended up with a respectable line of .233/.302/.436 (101 wRC+) with 11 HRs and nine steals over 227 PA. Robert combined his league-average offense with tremendous defense (eight DRS, 2.6 UZR) en route to 1.5 fWAR/1.6 bWAR.
  • Javier, also 23, helped make up for the Astros’ loss of Justin Verlander to injury. He made 12 appearances (10 starts) in his first year and registered a 3.48 ERA/4.94 FIP with 8.94 K/9 and 2.98 BB/9 across 54 1/3 innings.

Which of these three should win AL Rookie of the Year? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: NL Rookie of the Year

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National League Rookie of the Year Award finalists have been announced. The voting will come down to Brewers right-handed reliever Devin Williams, Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm and Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth. Here’s a look at what they did this year…

  • Williams was likely the most dominant reliever in baseball in 2020. The 26-year-old wasn’t the hardest-throwing pitcher in the sport – though he did average an impressive 96.5 mph mean on his fastball – but how do you beat a .33 ERA/.86 FIP over 27 innings? By the way, Williams posted 17.87 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Bohm didn’t join the Phillies until the middle of August, but he quickly solidified his spot in their lineup. The 24-year-old slashed an outstanding .338/.440/.481 (138 wRC+) with four home runs in 181 plate appearances.
  • Cronenworth, whom San Diego acquired from Tampa Bay last winter, proved to be a gem for the Padres in 2020. He played all four infield positions and batted .285/.354/.477 (125 wRC+) with four HRs over 192 PA during his first MLB season.

Who’s the NL Rookie of the Year? (Poll link for app users)

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