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MLBTR Poll: How Should The Royals Proceed With Danny Duffy?

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Royals left-hander Danny Duffy made his return from the injured list this evening, starting tonight’s game against the Yankees. The 32-year-old tossed two scoreless innings in a purposely brief appearance, his first action in a little more than a month. Before going on the IL with a left flexor strain, Duffy had gotten off to a very strong start to the season. Through seven starts totaling 41 2/3 innings, he worked to a pristine 1.94 ERA/2.35 FIP/3.65 SIERA.

Over the season’s first month-plus, he punched out a well above-average 28.2% of opposing hitters, a career-best mark, while walking only 7.1%. On a pitch-by-pitch basis, Duffy generated swings and misses at a 14.2% clip, also a career-best figure that’s well above the league average of 11.4%. His average fastball, slider and curveball velocity were all up between one and two ticks relative to last season. He held that increased pitch speed in today’s start, a welcome development considering there could’ve been some concern about potential lingering effects of the injury and accompanying layoff.

Because of the injury, his body of work remains a fairly small sample. Duffy’s had better month-plus stretches in his career, but he hasn’t had a seven-start run at this level since late in 2017, his last season posting an ERA below 4.00. Duffy’s not going to sustain an ERA below 2.00, but he certainly looks to have bounced back from his middling 2018-20 form. Between 2016-17, the veteran worked to a 3.64 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers- solid mid-rotation production. Given his improved raw stuff and early-season peripherals, it’s not unreasonable to think he can approximate that kind of performance moving forward.

If Duffy continues to pitch at an above-average level while building back towards a starter’s workload, contending clubs figure to reach out about his potential availability. The Royals got off to a strong start but they’ve fallen off rather precipitously since the start of May. Now 33-39, Kansas City has fallen ten games back in the American League Central. They don’t seem like plausible postseason contenders in 2021. With Duffy slated to be a free agent at the end of the year- and the trade market for starting pitching shaping up to be thin- he’d be a fairly straightforward trade candidate in most organizations.

The Royals operate differently than many MLB teams, though. The front office has a reputation for being more loyal than most, and they’ve re-signed or reacquired many of the players who contributed to their pennant-winning clubs of the last decade. Trading away marquee players midseason hasn’t been their M.O.

In the past, Duffy has expressed a desire to stick in Kansas City for his entire career. In response to 2017 trade rumors, he rather famously tweeted “bury me a Royal” and expressed a strong affinity for the organization and the city. Even if the front office were willing to consider moving him near the deadline, Duffy could end those discussions. He entered the season with 9.085 years of MLB service, meaning he’ll have eclipsed ten years by July 30. Players with ten years of service, the most recent five with the same team, are granted full no-trade rights under the terms of the CBA. If Duffy has no interest in moving elsewhere midseason, he could exercise his 10-and-5 rights and block a move.

The Royals’ record and Duffy’s impending free agency could open a mutually-beneficial opportunity for a midseason deal, though. Trading Duffy (with his permission) before July 30 could give him an opportunity to play in a pennant race in 2021 and allow the organization to bring in some young talent. A midseason trade wouldn’t foreclose the two sides reuniting next winter. It’s not common for teams to sign players whom they traded away midseason in free agency the following offseason, but it’s not completely unheard of, either (the Cubs’ 2014 deal with Jason Hammel and the Yankees’ 2016 reunion with Aroldis Chapman being prominent examples). A trade would result in Duffy forfeiting his 10-and-5 rights, but the sides could agree on a no-trade clause as part of a free agent deal if he’s concerned about being moved again in the future.

It’s certainly possible the two sides work out a long-term deal during or after the year, with Duffy never changing uniforms. While it seems unlikely, there’s some chance the Royals hang onto Duffy all season but allow him to depart in free agency. But the opportunity also seems to exist for a trade that could appeal to both Duffy and the Royals, even if both sides want to continue the relationship over the long term.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership: how should and how will the Royals handle Duffy’s impending free agency? (poll links for app users)

 

 

Will Trevor Bauer Opt Out After The Season?

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When Trevor Bauer signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers back in February, he ensured flexibility by securing opt-outs after the first and second years.  However, the details suggest the contract was designed to keep Bauer in Los Angeles for the first two seasons.

Bauer received a $10MM signing bonus, $5MM of which was paid in March.  The other $5MM will be paid next month.  Beyond that, his 2021 salary is $28MM, but with the quirk that it’s all payable on November 1st of this year.  Here’s what happens if he opts out after the 2021 season, according to Cot’s:

Bauer may opt out of the contract after the 2021 season, receiving a $2M buyout, with Dodgers deferring $20M of 2021 salary without interest, paid in $2M installments each Dec. 1, 2031-40

In other words, if Bauer opts out after this season, he walks away with $12MM in hand, and then has to wait a decade until the Dodgers pay him again.  And even then, it’s $2MM per year for ten years, with no interest.  Your estimates may vary, but that deferred $20MM is worth a lot less than being paid now – most likely half as much.

Opting out after the 2022 season involves none of that deferred money stuff, and throws in a $15MM buyout.  Bauer would have earned $85MM for two seasons, foregoing a mere $17MM for ’23.  Barring injury, jumping out of the contract at this point seems like an easy choice.  As the best pitcher on the free agent market, Bauer landed a very flexible contract.  The Dodgers took on all the downside risk, which is the nature of opt-out clauses.

Bauer started this season strong enough to at least give another look to the possibility of opting out after ’21.  After an outing at San Francisco on May 21st, Bauer’s ERA sat at 1.98 through 12 starts, with a 36.2 K%.  If you had asked me at that point, I’d have said it’d make sense for Bauer to opt out after ’21, even if just to land the same three-year deal all over again.  But on the horizon was a hallmark date with a potentially large effect on Bauer and many other pitchers.  On June 3rd, Bob Nightengale wrote, “Major League Baseball informed owners Thursday that it is engaged in the next phase of league-directed enforcement banning the use of foreign substances by pitchers — which would include 10-day suspensions — two persons with direct knowledge of the meeting told USA TODAY Sports.”  Today, MLB announced its new enforcement plan, which starts Monday.

Through May 31st, Bauer averaged 2840 RPM and 93.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball.  In the two starts since, those numbers are 2630 RPM and 94.1 mph.  There are players who have lost more RPM on their four-seamers since the impending crackdown became known, without much velocity change, such as the Indians’ James Karinchak.  But Bauer’s 210 RPM loss on the four-seamer is significant, especially for a guy who throws the pitch 44% of the time.

All we can say definitively is that the average spin rate on Bauer’s four-seam fastball in two starts after June 3rd was 210 RPM lower than the average RPM in a dozen starts before that date.  That the RPM drop was caused by Bauer stopping the usage of foreign substances on the ball or changing what he uses is the implication, but not a fact.  It’d take a further leap to say that Bauer’s mediocre results in those two starts were caused by the RPM drop.  It should be noted that 2630 RPM still ranks sixth in baseball from June 3rd onward, and there’s nothing too meaningful about allowing seven earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.  It’s also worth pointing out that Bauer’s ERA was probably not going to stay around 2.00 even without a foreign substance crackdown.  Bauer certainly has not shied away from MLB’s sticky stuff drama, as he “demonstrated to reporters on the field before Tuesday’s game that a combination of sweat and rosin was sufficient to allow him to stick a baseball to his hand, palm down,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register.  He showed this on Twitter, while also diving into Tyler Glasnow’s comments.

If you’re an MLB GM considering signing Bauer at some point in the future, you’re definitely going to try to determine how much of Bauer’s recent success was the result of the use of foreign substances, because you have to forecast how he’ll perform over the next several years.  If this was a major consideration for Bauer’s suitors in the 2020-21 offseason, I didn’t hear about it.  For Bauer and potential suitors, the calculus has changed.  So let’s get your opinions on when we’ll see him next on the free agent market.

MLBTR Poll: Is It Time For The Twins To Sell?

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After a disappointing 17-29 start to the season, the Twins aren’t decided sellers, but they might not be far off, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Said GM Thad Levine, “We still believe in the team. We think it’s very talented, but we’re getting close to an inflection point where we’re going to need to see some more sustained momentum, as we believe we’re in a very competitive division, let alone league.” That sounds like a front office that’s readying to make the most of a bad situation.

The Twins are tied with the Orioles for the worst record in the American League after 46 games, roughly 28 percent of the way through the season. As of today, they sit 9.5 games behind the White Sox for the AL Central lead. They are 11 games out of a wild card spot. Only the Orioles and Tigers seem like definite sellers at this point in the AL, joined by the Pirates, Rockies, and Diamondbacks from the National League. The Twins could try to get a jump on the trade market and move some veterans while there’s still a large pool of potential buyers.

For context, on this date two years ago, the Nationals famously entered play at 19-31, 10 games behind the Phillies for the division lead, 8.5 games out of a wild card spot. So while there’s definitely precedent for turning it around at this stage of the game, it took a historic .661 win percentage the rest of the way to pull the Nats to 93 wins. The Twins will soon have to decide if they think this unit is capable of that kind of run.

They’re looking up at a crowded field in the American League where the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, White Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, A’s, and Indians look like contenders and the Royals, Rangers, Angels, and Mariners can make arguments in their favor. If the Twins decide to lean into a lost season, they certainly have some veterans on hand who could be helpful to contending teams. Nelson Cruz and his 138 wRC+ could certainly find a home, as might other veterans on short-term deals like Andrelton Simmons, Michael Pineda, Hansel Robles, J.A. Happ, or even Alex Colome.

More broadly, Miguel Sano could be shopped to a team needing power. Even someone like Max Kepler might fetch a juicy return given his team-friendly deal. The Twins have no need to move Kepler, but with young players like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff on hand, he might be someone a savvy team looking for outfield help might ask after.

The biggest fish would be Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, or Byron Buxton, all of whom have just one season left of arbitration before free agency. Moving any of the three would be a difficult call on the Twins’ part, however, considering the damage that kind of deal might do to their ability to contend in 2022. All that said, prospects are the currency of the game, and a strong development pool is the surest way to build a consistent winner.

The Twins are weighing their options, but let’s make this easy on them. Is it time to sell?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Do You Believe In The Giants?

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The Padres beat the Dodgers in extras last night in yet another affirmation of baseball’s hottest rivalry, but there’s another team that sits between the Padres and the division-leading Dodgers out west: the San Francisco Giants.

At 14-8, the San Francisco Giants somewhat surprisingly sit tied with their partners across the bay in Oakland for the second-best winning percentage in baseball. It seems like every year we expect the Giants to bottom out, but under President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi, the Giants put out competitive squads. And yet, they haven’t finished above .500 since 2016. They were 29-31 in 2020, just barely missing out on the final playoff spot in an expanded field.

They’re off to a fantastic start in 2021. Despite a lack of star power, the Giants pitching staff boasts a 2.94 ERA, second only to the Padres league-wide. By fielding independent pitching, the Giants allow 3.59 runs per nine innings, and while that suggests the ball may be bouncing in their favor early on, that’s still the seventh-best mark in the Majors. They’re a top-10 team in limiting free passes with a 7.9 percent walk rate and striking out an above-average 24.9 percent of hitters. Better yet, they’re keeping the ball on the ground at a league-best 49.9 percent groundball rate.

Coming into the season, a rotation pool of Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Aaron Sanchez, and Logan Webb wasn’t likely first on Pitching Ninja’s teams to watch, especially not in a division with the star-powered rotations in San Diego and Los Angeles. The Giants’ group, by comparison, had former stars, late-developers, and injury perennials. Four turns through the five-man cycle, however, the Giants starters are second overall with a 2.46 ERA, fifth with a 3.16 FIP, and second by volume with 127 2/3 innings. They’re also limiting hard contact with a 28.6 percent hard hit percentage, tied for second overall.

Is regression coming to Oracle Park? They’ve benefited from the seventh-best batting average on balls in play (.256 BABIP), they’ve been best in the game at stranding runners with a 85.2 percent left on base rate, and they’re tied for third with a 9.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. It’s pretty early to know how “earned” those rankings are.

While the pitching has been about as good as they might have hoped, the offense actually has some room to grow. As a group, their 89 wRC+ is a bottom-10 mark overall, despite a top-10 .176 team ISO. Like the pitching staff, the offense shares a .256 BABIP mark, fourth-lowest among offenses. Mike Yastrzemski’s potential oblique injury could be a blow, and while it’s been great seeing Buster Posey and Evan Longoria turn back the clock to the tune of 150 wRC+ and 160 wRC+, respectively, they are going to slow down.

This is our third season of Zaidi’s Giants. He can claim a number of savvy, low-key development wins like the star turns from Yaz and Gausman, but while they’ve sniffed around the edges of some significant free agents, they’ve largely let the big-ticket names head elsewhere. With the Giants off to the races in what’s sure to be a competitive division, will Zaidi be more aggressive on the trade market if they stay in the playoff picture?

Will they stay in the playoff picture? Are you bullish or bearish on the Giants’ hot start? April is a time for belief in baseball, so let’s see what y’all believe about the Giants.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will Nationals Trade Max Scherzer This Summer?

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The Nationals won their first-ever World Series title in 2019, but success has eluded the franchise since then. Washington was unable to seriously defend its title during the shortened 2020 season, as it missed the playoffs with a 26-34 record, and the team has stumbled to a 7-9 mark this year. While it is still very early, the Nationals’ odds of making the postseason in 2021 have already dropped from 22.4 percent to 15.2 since Opening Day, per FanGraphs.

The Nats have ample time to get on track (they have won two in a row), but what if they aren’t in contention around the July 30 trade deadline? Would general manager Mike Rizzo sell off any notable pieces? If Rizzo would be willing to do so (his in-season trade history suggests he wouldn’t be), he’d have a coveted trade chip in pending free agent and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer.

Although he was effective last year, Scherzer was not his typical elite self. However, the soon-to-be 37-year-old is back in superb form this season, having thrown 25 innings of 1.80 ERA/2.79 SIERA ball with a 35.9 percent strikeout rate and a 4.3 percent walk rate. His K-BB percentage (31.5) and swinging-strike rate (15.7 percent) rank in the top 10 among major league starters.

With Scherzer dominating again, both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com have recently tackled the possibility of the Nationals trading the fiery right-hander this summer. As they note, there are some complicating factors that could scuttle a deal. For one, because Scherzer has 10-and-5 rights, he would be able to veto any trade. There’s also the matter of his $35MM salary – which could limit his market to higher spending teams – not to mention the unconventional structure of his contract. Even though the deal only runs through this season, the Nationals are on the hook for annual payments of $15MM to Scherzer from 2015-28. An acquiring team could take on at least some of that, though it wouldn’t increase his value in a trade.

The deadline is still three-plus months away, but if Washington doesn’t rebound or extend Scherzer by then, he’ll be popular in trade rumors. How do you expect this situation to play out? Will Scherzer stay put through the season or end 2021 in a different uniform?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Struggling 2020 Playoff Teams

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This season has not started in ideal fashion for the majority of last year’s 16-team playoff field. While the Dodgers, Brewers and Athletics boast terrific records at roughly the 20-game mark, everybody else who qualified for the postseason in 2020 is, at best, hovering around .500. Eight of those clubs currently have more losses than wins (we’ll get to them in a bit).

With a 162-game schedule instead of a 60-game slate, slumping teams have far more time to rebound from slow starts this season. On the other hand, only 10 clubs will make the playoffs in 2021, so teams can ill afford to dig early holes for themselves.

American League

Twins (2020 record: 36-24; 2021 record: 6-11):

  • The Twins are coming off an 0-4, COVID-interrupted road trip that came to a horrific end with a 13-12 loss Wednesday, when sloppy defense led to an extra-innings collapse against the A’s. Reliever Alex Colome – the Twins’ keynote bullpen acquisition of the offseason – took the loss, continuing a rough start to the year for him. Meanwhile, ace Kenta Maeda turned in his worst performance of the season (seven earned runs in three innings) and has only gotten past the 4 1/3-frame mark in one of his four starts. The Twins will likely need the Maeda of old back if they’re going to push for a third straight AL Central title, though Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda have helped pick up the slack in their rotation so far. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense hasn’t been a juggernaut (Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler and Andrelton Simmons have missed time with health issues), but Byron Buxton may be in the early stages of a breakthrough year at the plate and Nelson Cruz isn’t showing signs of slowing down.

Yankees (2020 record: 33-27; 2021 record: 6-11):

  • The Yankees were pegged as serious World Series contenders entering the season, but they have looked like bottom-feeders so far. What was supposed to be a high-powered offense has totaled the AL’s fewest runs and put up its second-worst wRC+, owing in part to the absence of injured 2020 home run king Luke Voit. The Yankees’ pitching has been much better than their hitting, but that’s largely thanks to the work of their bullpen – which hasn’t had many leads to protect. Gerrit Cole and, to a much lesser extent, Jordan Montgomery have carried their rotation, while offseason acquisitions Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon haven’t been all that effective coming off injuries, and Domingo German has struggled mightily in his return from a domestic violence suspension. The Yankees should get former ace Luis Severino back from Tommy John surgery during the summer, but there’s no telling how he’ll perform in the wake of two straight injury-wrecked seasons.

Blue Jays (2020 record: 32-28; 2021 record: 8-10):

  • The Jays have dealt with a rash of injuries to their pitching staff, including in their rotation – an area that could be a significant question mark even if everyone’s healthy. They have also had to go without their main offseason acquisition, center fielder George Springer, though he shouldn’t be far off from returning from a quad strain. To the Jays’ credit, they’ve essentially tread water thus far, and their plus-10 run differential does rank third in the AL.

Astros (2020 record: 29-31; 2021 record: 7-10):

  • The Astros sneaked into the playoffs last year with a sub-.500 record, though they still came within a game of reaching the World Series for the third time in four seasons. However, the team then got weaker in the offseason with the loss of Springer, whom it didn’t adequately replace, and was dealt another blow when starter Framber Valdez suffered a serious finger injury at the beginning of the spring. The Astros reacted by signing veteran Jake Odorizzi, who has delivered miserable results through his first two starts. Aside from Zack Greinke and Luis Garcia, Astros starters have not gotten the job done, while their bullpen has also been a letdown in the early going. Fortunately, even without Springer, a healthy version of Houston’s offense still brings plenty of firepower to the table.

Which of the above four AL teams do you believe has the best chance to rebound and make the playoffs? (Poll link for app users)

National League

Braves (2020 record: 35-25; 2021 record: 8-10)

  • The back-to-back-to-back NL East champions have fallen behind in April, thanks in part to injuries to starters Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Drew Smyly. The Braves overcame a series of health problems in their staff last year to earn a trip to the NLCS, of course, but an elite offense led the way then. Their attack has been above average again this year, though Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman are their only regulars who have offered star-caliber production. Conversely, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Travis d’Arnaud have gotten off to brutal starts at the plate.

Cubs (2020 record: 34-26; 2021 record: 8-9)

  • The most significant move the Cubs executed over the winter was one that weakened them, at least in the short term. The team said goodbye to Yu Darvish, sending the 2020 NL Cy Young finalist to San Diego for fellow righty Zach Davies and a few prospects. Cutting costs was part of the motivation for that trade and in general when it came to the Cubs’ offseason; as a result, many were bearish on their chances heading into 2021. So far, the preseason pessimism has been warranted. The Cubs have not hit much, evidenced by bottom four National League rankings in runs and wRC+, and their pitching staff owns the NL’s third-highest ERA. Of their starters, only Jake Arrieta and Alec Mills have managed to post an ERA south of 5.00 so far. Surprisingly, the club’s best pitcher has been closer Craig Kimbrel, who’s back in dominant form after he was largely written off before the season.

Cardinals (2020 record: 30-28; 2021 record: 8-10):

  • The Cardinals pulled off one of the ultimate headline-grabbing moves of the offseason in acquiring star third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. The hope then was that Arenado would lift an offense that finished 2020 with a less-than-stellar wRC+ of 93. Arenado has indeed notched solid production so far, yet the Cardinals’ wRC+ sits at an almost identical 94 through 18 games. Meantime, the bottom-line results of the Cardinals’  starters have been a far bigger problem, as their rotation – which is missing the injured Miles Mikolas – has recorded the NL’s fifth-worst ERA.

Marlins (2020 record: 31-29; 2021 record: 8-9):

Which of the above four NL teams do you believe has the best chance to rebound and make the playoffs? (Poll link for app users)

Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

MLBTR Poll: Boston’s Hot Start

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After ending the shortened 2020 season with a 24-36 record and a last-place finish in the American League East, the Red Sox were not a popular playoff pick entering the current campaign. Sure, the team reunited with World Series-winning manager Alex Cora, but its offseason was otherwise a fairly low-key one. The big-market Red Sox’s largest free-agent guarantee went to utility player Enrique Hernandez, who signed a two-year, $14MM guarantee, and they didn’t make any blockbuster acquisitions on the trade market. They also knew they would spend a sizable chunk of 2021 without left-handed ace Chris Sale, who isn’t quite 13 full months removed from Tommy John surgery.

With a forgettable 2020 and an understated winter in their rear-view mirror, the Red Sox began this season poorly with a three-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Orioles. At that very early point, it looked as if Boston might be in for another lean year, though the team has since done a 180. The Red Sox climbed out of their hole with a stunning nine straight victories, and while they have lost three of five since then, they’re still an impressive 11-6, atop the American League and 2 1/2 games up in the AL East. They earned their latest victory Monday in an 11-4 drubbing of the White Sox and ace Lucas Giolito, whom they chased in the second inning after pummeling him for eight runs over one-plus frame.

The Red Sox have been a well-rounded outfit during their sizzling start, as their offense and pitching have combined to give the club the AL’s top run differential (plus-28). As of this writing, the Red Sox are second in the majors in wRC+ and third in runs scored, owing largely to their three best hitters (J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts) and solid complementary performances from Alex Verdugo, Christian Vazquez and Christian Arroyo. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has carried their Sale-less rotation, and their bullpen has received great work from the likes of Matt Barnes, Matt Andriese, Phillips Valdez and Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock, among others. Between its starters and relievers, Boston owns a respectable 3.70 ERA/3.89 SIERA.

The rest of the AL East hasn’t looked nearly as sharp as the Red Sox to this point. The Rays, the defending division champions and pennant winners, are in second at 8-8. The injury-riddled Blue Jays are 7-9, as are the Orioles, though Toronto is far more likely than Baltimore to threaten Boston over a 162-game schedule. And then there’s the last-place Yankees, who have done seemingly nothing right during a surprising 5-10 start.

In most cases, it’s much too soon to crown a club or write one off, but the Red Sox have looked like the class of their division thus far. Do you think they’re good enough to hang in the AL race the rest of the way?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Polls: What Early Injury Worries You Most?

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While the sprint of 2020 gave urgency to the regular season, this year brought back the challenge of baseball’s marathon regular season.  The longer season brings greater health challenges. We’re particularly on edge for pitchers attempting to more than double their year-over-year workload. Hamstring injuries to position players have proven to be the more drastic bugaboo in the early going, however. Regardless, less than two weeks into 2021, the landscape has already begun to shift rosters and change odds.

The defending champs just placed Cody Bellinger on the 10-day injured list, while MVP runner-up Mookie Betts has been out of the lineup for a couple of games now. As much as a Dodgers lineup without Bellinger and Betts will boost some heart rates, neither injury appears to be serious – for now. The concern for all injuries, of course, goes beyond the time missed.

The Diamondbacks started the year with ace Zac Gallen on the shelf, and it took only one appearance for offseason addition and candidate-to-close Joakim Soria to join him on the shelf. Starters Nick Ahmed and Kole Calhoun have been out, though both recently returned to the lineup. Gallen should return this week too, but now Ketel Marte is out with a strained hamstring. Marte’s injury hurts all the more, not only because he’s become the face of the franchise in the post-Paul-Goldschmidt era, but because he was off to a rip-roaring start to the season with a 259 wRC+ through six games.

The Padres might have the scariest injury of all this season, as the centerpiece of their organization, Fernando Tatis Jr., dislocated his shoulder at the plate. Shoulder subluxation is the technical term, but a slight tear in his left labrum is the term to make you wince. Tatis is already working his way back, but this is going to be a pins-and-needles situation for the rest of the season, not only for the Padres, but for the league, as Tatis Jr. has rapidly become the face of the “let the kids play” generation. The Padres have also dealt with injuries to Trent Grisham, Dinelson Lamet, Austin Nola, Pierce Johnson, Michel Baez, and others. The Padres offseason spending spree all but guaranteed that they have the depth to contend, but the injuries are piling up.

Bad news has not been unique to the NL West, however. The Nationals started the season with a COVID-19 outbreak, which delayed their opening series and placed nine players on the injured list on Opening Day. Patrick Corbin made his return the other night, but he was rusty, and they still have yet to see Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison, Jon Lester, or Will Harris.

The Mets knew they’d be without Noah Syndergaard for the first half, but Carlos Carrasco has joined him on the injured list, as have key bullpen arms in Dellin Betances and Seth Lugo. J.D. Davis is out now as well, though Jonathan Villar should grant them cover at the hot corner until Davis returns.

In the American League, the White Sox head the list of forlorn head-shakers. Eloy Jimenez tore his pectoral late in spring, forcing the ChiSox to lean early on their questionable depth. First base prospect Andrew Vaughn and spring-training-castoff Billy Hamilton made for a patchwork timeshare, but Hamilton is out now as well. Tim Anderson, mercurial leadoff man and heartbeat of the roster, is also out with – you guessed it – a hamstring injury. How innocent it seemed when the team’s fourth outfielder Adam Engel went on the injured list at the end of Spring Training, but it’s only gotten worse since then.

Like the White Sox, the Blue Jays are a popular pick for the “it” team of 2021, but they’ve been without star pitching prospect Nate Pearson and prized offseason addition George Springer. Robbie Ray has been activated for his season debut, but closer Kirby Yates may never even throw a pitch for the Blue Jays. Yates needs Tommy John surgery, and he’ll miss the season.

The Astros got their injury heartbreak early enough to pivot before the season even started. They knew they’d be without Justin Verlander, but Framber Valdez’s season is now in doubt as well. Losing Valdez particularly smarts, given the breakout he enjoyed in 2020. They’re also without Austin Pruitt, Pedro Baez, Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb, and Josh James. They were able to add Jake Odorizzi, but will he be enough?

The A’s got a real punch in the gut with A.J. Puk’s injury news. It might be funny if it weren’t so tragic: Puk shined in his season debut, only to find himself back on the injured list. The same can be said for Trevor Rosenthal, a savvy offseason addition to replace departed closer Liam Hendriks without the long-term financial commitment. It took a season and a half for Rosenthal to re-calibrate after Tommy John surgery, but he seemed to have found the form that made him a star closer for the Cardinals early in his career. Oakland’s $11MM investment is now on the 60-day injured list.

The Rays lost Nick Anderson and large swaths of their bullpen, as have the Yankees, who are down a couple of southpaws and their first baseman. A strained oblique sent Adalberto Mondesi to the injured list on Opening Day. Josh Donaldson doubled in his first plate appearance – and then headed to the injured list. The Rangers have done a full line change in the bullpen, and veterans James Paxton, Dexter Fowler, and Seranthony Dominguez are all out for the year.

The first punches of the 2021 season have been thrown. Some teams have had better luck than others, but all face the reality of a long season. Injuries are not the fun part of the game, but they are a part of baseball. If nothing else, every injury provides an opportunity for somebody else. Narratives change, but baseball continues, and we crown new heroes every day. After all, Adam Wainwright’s iconic strikeout of Carlos Beltran in the 2006 postseason never happens if Jason Isringhausen isn’t injured in September, for example. Tom Brady doesn’t get a chance to start if Drew Bledsoe isn’t injured. And so on.

Which team’s new reality is most disconcerting? Which team’s early injuries have changed their long-term fortunes the most? And who did I leave out? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will Mets Extend Francisco Lindor?

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The Mets are seemingly running out of time to extend their prized offseason acquisition, shortstop Francisco Lindor. The 27-year-old, who earned four All-Star nods with the Indians before joining the Mets in a blockbuster winter trade, has made it clear he will not negotiate a new contract when the regular season begins Thursday. That means he could become the leading free agent on the board next offseason.

Although the Mets and Lindor are closing in on his self-imposed deadline, they’re not yet moving toward an agreement, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. The Mets have made Lindor a franchise-record offer worth around $325MM over 10 years, Martino writes, and Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets it’s “believed” the club will not make him another proposal before his deadline. Expectations across the industry are that the two sides will hammer out an agreement, Martino relays, though Lindor is looking for a deal in the 12-year, $400MM range, according to Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Indeed, Lindor’s camp has made the Mets a 12-year, $385MM counteroffer, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.

It appears there is a wide gap to close, but it should help the Mets’ chances that they have baseball’s richest owner, Steve Cohen, who had dinner with Lindor on Saturday. Cohen addressed the Lindor situation in a pre-recorded online Q&A with Mets announcer Wayne Randazzo and fans (via Ken Davidoff the New York Post), saying, “It takes two people to sign a contract, not one.” He added: “Well, we have a deadline [March] 31, today is the 29th. It either will or won’t in the next two days.” 

What do you think? Will Cohen & Co. get it done? (Poll link for app users)

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