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MLBTR Poll: Kevin Gausman’s Qualifying Offer Decision

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Kevin Gausman has until November 11 to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer he was issued by the Giants. Should he accept, he’ll return to San Francisco on a one-year, $18.9MM deal. That wouldn’t foreclose the possibility of a multi-year extension with San Francisco, just as José Abreu and the White Sox brokered a three-year contract after Abreu accepted Chicago’s QO last winter. Rejecting the qualifying offer might pave the way for multi-year offers from other clubs, though. Gausman and his representatives have surely been gauging the market the past few days to shape their decision.

There’s a case to be made for Gausman as the second-best starter on the open market. The right-hander pitched to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59.2 innings this past season. His 32.2% strikeout rate ranked eleventh in baseball (minimum 50 innings pitched), topped only by Trevor Bauer’s 36% among free agents. Gausman finished tenth overall in strikeout minus walk rate and seventh in swinging strike rate. On a per-pitch basis, only Jacob deGrom, Lucas Giolito, Kenta Maeda, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo and Gerrit Cole generated more whiffs. Gausman truly was among the game’s elite at fooling opposing hitters.

Moreover, he’s also one of the harder-throwing starting pitchers available. Gausman averaged north of 95 MPH on his heater last season, per Brooks Baseball. He got elite results on both the fastball and his signature splitter. Gausman didn’t find a breaking ball he was comfortable using frequently, a problem that has hampered him throughout his career. That didn’t seem to matter, though, as he was highly effective regardless.

Of course, teams aren’t solely factoring in a player’s performance in his platform year. That’s all the more true in a significantly shortened season. Gausman’s only a season removed from posting a 5.72 ERA over 102.1 innings, contributing to the Reds’ decision to non-tender him last winter rather than pay him approximately $10.6MM to return in 2020. Some of the underlying metrics at the time hinted at a potential rebound but it was nevertheless a surprise to see him perform at such a high level this past season. Gausman’s less consistent track record could lead to some trepidation on teams’ parts, particularly since signing him would cost them draft compensation at the very least.

It’s also worth considering whether next winter’s market would present a more favorable environment. Teams aren’t expected to spend aggressively this winter in the wake of massive revenue losses. Next offseason might still have COVID-19 effects, and there’ll be anticipated labor uncertainty with the scheduled expiration of the collective bargaining agreement in December 2021 (although it’s possible MLB and the MLBPA broker a short-term CBA extension in the wake of the pandemic).

Gausman would be one year older next offseason obviously, but he’ll only turn 30 in January 2021. He’d still be young enough to secure a lofty multi-year deal if he accepts the qualifying offer, then backs up 2020 with another strong season. The CBA prohibits players from being offered multiple qualifying offers in their careers, so Gausman will never have to wrestle with this decision again, no matter what he decides in the coming days.

In our top 50 free agents list, the MLBTR staff predicted Gausman would indeed accept the qualifying offer. We’ll turn things over to the readership with a pair of questions: should Gausman take the qualifying offer, and will he do so?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: AL Rookie of the Year Finalists

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We have been polling MLBTR readers on this year’s Major League Baseball awards finalists throughout the week (minus the American League Cy Young, which will belong to the Indians’ Shane Bieber). We’ll conclude with the AL Rookie of the Year, an honor that will go to either Mariners center fielder Kyle Lewis, White Sox center fielder Luis Robert or Astros right-hander Cristian Javier. Here’s a look at what they did in 2020…

  • The 25-year-old Lewis had a big season at the plate, hitting .262/.364/.434 (126 wRC+) with 11 home runs, five stolen bases and 1.7 fWAR/1.4 bWAR in 242 plate appearances.
  • Robert, 23, got off to hot offensive start before fading. He still ended up with a respectable line of .233/.302/.436 (101 wRC+) with 11 HRs and nine steals over 227 PA. Robert combined his league-average offense with tremendous defense (eight DRS, 2.6 UZR) en route to 1.5 fWAR/1.6 bWAR.
  • Javier, also 23, helped make up for the Astros’ loss of Justin Verlander to injury. He made 12 appearances (10 starts) in his first year and registered a 3.48 ERA/4.94 FIP with 8.94 K/9 and 2.98 BB/9 across 54 1/3 innings.

Which of these three should win AL Rookie of the Year? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: NL Rookie of the Year

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National League Rookie of the Year Award finalists have been announced. The voting will come down to Brewers right-handed reliever Devin Williams, Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm and Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth. Here’s a look at what they did this year…

  • Williams was likely the most dominant reliever in baseball in 2020. The 26-year-old wasn’t the hardest-throwing pitcher in the sport – though he did average an impressive 96.5 mph mean on his fastball – but how do you beat a .33 ERA/.86 FIP over 27 innings? By the way, Williams posted 17.87 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Bohm didn’t join the Phillies until the middle of August, but he quickly solidified his spot in their lineup. The 24-year-old slashed an outstanding .338/.440/.481 (138 wRC+) with four home runs in 181 plate appearances.
  • Cronenworth, whom San Diego acquired from Tampa Bay last winter, proved to be a gem for the Padres in 2020. He played all four infield positions and batted .285/.354/.477 (125 wRC+) with four HRs over 192 PA during his first MLB season.

Who’s the NL Rookie of the Year? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: This Year’s NL MVP Race

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This could go down as an incredible couple of weeks for Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts. After helping the Dodgers to their first World Series title since 1988 last week, Betts was named a finalist for National League Most Valuable player honors Monday. If the Baseball Writers’ Association of America votes for Betts, the former Red Sox superstar will become the first player since the legendary Frank Robinson to win the MVP in both leagues. However, Betts has some stiff competition this year in the other two finalists – Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and Padres third baseman Manny Machado.

Before the 28-year-old Betts took home his second World Series title, he was the juggernaut Dodgers’ premier player during the regular season. Betts slashed .292/.562 (149 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 10 stolen bases, the NL’s highest bWAR (3.4) and its second-ranked fWAR (3.0) in 246 plate appearances. You also can’t overlook Betts’ value in the field, as he led NL outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved (10) and came in second in Ultimate Zone Rating (5.7).

Freeman, meanwhile, went on an offensive rampage all season, especially during a September in which he recorded a remarkable 1.246 OPS in 96 at-bats. That month helped Freeman to an overall .341/.462/.640 line with 13 homers over 262 PA. Freeman was first in his league in fWAR (3.4), second in bWAR (2.8) and second in wRC+ (187).

Alongside shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who arguably had an MVP-caliber season of his own, Machado gave the Padres an all-world left side of the infield in 2020. Thanks in large part to those two, the Padres made the postseason for the first time since 2006. But it’s Machado who’s now drawing MVP consideration, and he’s certainly a deserving candidate. In his second season as a Padre, Machado hit .304/.370/.500 (148 wRC+) with 16 HRs and six steals in 254 PA. He ranked third among NL position players in bWAR (2.8) and sixth in fWAR (2.6).

Is one of these three the obvious choice, or will it be difficult for voters to make a decision? Make your choice below…

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’s Your AL MVP?

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Angels center fielder Mike Trout will not get to defend his 2019 American League Most Valuable player honors in this year’s balloting. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America released its AL MVP finalists Monday, and despite another brilliant year, Trout didn’t make the cut. Instead, the voters will decide among Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez, Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu and White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu.

Ramirez didn’t look like a contender for the award heading into the season’s final month, but the tear he went on in September put him on the map and may make him the favorite. The 28-year-old posted a video game-like 1.294 OPS with 10 home runs in 82 at-bats in the year’s last few weeks to help the Indians to the playoffs. He ended the regular season with a .292/.386/.607 line (good for a 163 wRC+), 17 homers, 10 steals, an AL-leading 3.4 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR over 254 plate appearances.

The only two AL position players who beat out Ramirez in bWAR were LeMahieu and Abreu, who tied for a league-high 2.8. It was a dream contract year showing for LeMahieu, who’s now a free agent. Once he turns down the Yankees’ qualifying offer, he’ll hit the market fresh off a season as arguably the most productive hitter in his league. The 32-year-old won a batting title, paced the AL in wRC+ (177), slashed .364/.421/.590 with 10 HRs, and finished fifth among AL position players in fWAR (2.5) across 216 trips to the plate.

Meanwhile, the White Sox’s decision to re-sign Abreu last offseason couldn’t have paid off much more than it did in 2020. Abreu was instrumental in the White Sox’s first playoff berth since 2008, as the franchise icon batted .317/.370/.617 (167 wRC+) in 262 PA. He also ended up second in the AL in homers (19) and third in fWAR (2.6).

After digesting all of those numbers, which of the three do you think deserves this year’s MVP honors? Cast your vote below …

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: NL Cy Young Finalists

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With voting season in full swing, the The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced finalists for several high-profile awards on Monday. The National League Cy Young was among them, leaving this year’s voters to decide among the Reds’ Trevor Bauer, the Cubs’ Yu Darvish and the Mets’ Jacob deGrom. The question is: Which right-hander do you think they should choose?

When it came to preventing runs in 2020, no qualified NL starter was superior to Bauer, now a free agent whose platform year came at an ideal time. The 29-year-old easily paced his league in ERA (1.73). He also ranked second in the NL in strikeouts per nine (12.33), third in K/BB ratio (5.88) and fWAR (2.5), fourth in bWAR (2.7), fifth in FIP (2.88) and sixth in innings (73).

Darvish equaled Bauer’s bWAR, but he upended him in the fWAR category (3.0; first). The resurgent 34-year-old also finished No. 1 in his league in FIP (2.23) while placing near the top in ERA (2.01; second), BB/9 (1.66; second), innings (76; third) and K/9 (11.01; eighth).

And there’s simply no slowing down deGrom, who’s the back-to-back winner of this award. The 32-year-old didn’t have the quite workload of Bauer or Darvish, as deGrom dealt with some injuries and wound up with 68 innings. As always, though, he was dominant. DeGrom finished first in K/9 (13.76), second in FIP (2.23) and fWAR (2.26), fourth in ERA (2.38) and K/BB ratio (5.78), and seventh in bWAR (2.6).

Looking at the exemplary numbers these three posted in 2020, it appears voters are going to have a hard time settling on a pick. There’s no wrong answer among the three, but which one do you prefer? (Poll link for app users)

The A’s Have Some Tough Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Heading into the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien appeared poised to become one of the market’s top free agents. Then 29 years of age, Semien was fresh off an MVP-caliber 2019 campaign fueled by a breakout at the plate and continued improvement upon his once-shaky defensive reputation at second base. Semien posted a huge .285/.369/.522 slash with a career-best 33 homers, 10 steals and defense strong enough to make him a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.

The 2020 season, however, has been another story entirely. In 236 plate appearances, he turned in a .223/.305/.374 batting line with seven homers and four steals. Semien’s 10.6 percent walk rate was the second-best of his career, trailing only last year’s breakout, but he went the wrong direction in virtually every other category. His strikeout rate jumped from 13.7 percent to 21.2 percent — his highest mark since 2017 — while his isolated power dipped from .237 to .152. Semien’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dropped considerably.

Marcus Semien | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In the field, Semien went from +12 Defensive Runs Saved to -5. Outs Above Average wasn’t particularly kind to his 2020 work, either (-4). It’s worth mentioning that Ultimate Zone Rating still pegged him as a plus defender, with his 4.8 UZR/150 nearly matching the prior season’s 5.0. On a more rudimentary level, Semien made seven errors in 451 innings in 2020 compared to just 12 errors in 1435 frames a year ago.

The difficulty of evaluating players’ successes and failures in a wholly unique 2020 season is plain to see. But for both the A’s and for other clubs who may hold interest in Semien, it’s particularly challenging. Anything close to his 2019 output would’ve made him a lock to receive an $18.9MM qualifying offer, but the Oakland org now must wonder whether he’d accept such an offer and whether they’d want him back at that rate. Other clubs will be left to wonder whether the 2019 season was a fluky outlier or whether he was on player on the rise whose 2020 struggles can be attributed to myriad factors associated with this unprecedented season.

Perhaps further complicating matters for the A’s is that they have a second player who looks worth of a qualifying offer: closer Liam Hendriks. Such a notion would’ve sounded laughable as recently as 2018, when Hendriks was put through outright waivers and went unclaimed. However, he’s come back with a vengeance and emerged not only as Oakland’s closer but as the top free-agent reliever on this year’s market and one of the best relievers in the game, period.

Liam Hendriks Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past two seasons, Hendriks has a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, 1.70 FIP and 2.95 xFIP with averages of 13.1 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s posted a superhuman 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate — including a 19 percent rate in 2020. Meanwhile, he induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 38.1 percent this year (35.1 percent dating back ti ’19). That he was named reliever of the year in the American League came as little surprise.

On many clubs, making a qualifying offer to Hendriks would be a no-brainer. However, the A’s perennially operate with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and are just months removed from having to be publicly pressured into paying their minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend. An $18.9MM salary on a reliever could well be something they’re not prepared to risk. From Hendriks’ vantage point, he’s just north of $12MM in career earnings, so an $18.9MM paycheck would surely be tempting.

At the same time, Hendriks surely took note when a less-dominant reliever, left-hander Will Smith, rejected a qualifying offer last year and still secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. If his camp believes such a deal is out there, then rejecting would be a better move; even in a worst-case scenario, he’d surely be able to command a sizable one-year deal in free agency — albeit likely not at that $18.9MM level. But if Hendriks believes the downside of rejecting a qualifying offer is, say, a one-year deal at $10MM, he’d be risking the $8.9MM difference for a multi-year deal that guarantees him perhaps $20MM or more beyond the value of the qualifying offer.

All of this, of course, could be a moot point. The A’s might decide that they don’t want to risk a qualifying offer for either player. They’re already on the hook for $16.5MM to Khris Davis, $7.25MM to Stephen Piscotty and $4MM to Jake Diekman next year. They’ll also see both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson receive sizable salary bumps as they enter arbitration for the first time — the headliners in a class which also features Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Frankie Montas, among others. Projecting arbitration salaries for that bunch is trickier than ever given the shortened season and revenue losses, but they should command more than $20MM.

There are some split camps on how the A’s will proceed on this front. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested on the former’s podcast last week that they still feel there’s a good chance Semien will receive an offer. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently, however, that a qualifying offer for Semien may not be realistic given the heft of that would-be salary.

The A’s were already slated to head into the 2020 season with what would’ve been a record payroll, just north of $100MM, prior to prorating this year’s salaries. Between the guarantees to Davis, Piscotty and Diekman; the arbitration raises to Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt, Canha and Montas; and the would-be $18.9MM salaries to Semien and Hendriks (should they accept), the A’s would already be close to $90MM. That’s before factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster and any offseason additions they might hope to make.

Frankly, it’s difficult to see this club being willing to take this type of risk, although there’s an argument to be made in favor of both. A one-year deal for Semien would prove to be a nice value, for instance, if he rebounds to something between his 2019 and 2020 levels. And Smith’s contract with the Braves last year certainly lends credence to the idea that Hendriks could reject, which would give the A’s a valuable compensatory draft pick if he departs.

Let’s open this up for MLBTR readers to weigh in on a pair of questions:

Should the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)


Will the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Should The Astros Give Michael Brantley A Qualifying Offer?

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The World Series will come to an end next week, meaning teams will soon have to decide whether to tag their impending free agents with the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. If a team makes a player a QO which that player rejects, the team will be entitled to some form of draft compensation if the player departs in free agency.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently ran down the qualifying offer outlook for both position players and pitchers. As is the case every year, some players are candidates to receive a QO but might plausibly accept if offered. One such player is Astros outfielder Michael Brantley.

One of the sport’s most consistently productive hitters over his tenure in Cleveland, Brantley reached free agency following the 2018 season. Surprisingly, the Indians elected not to make him a qualifying offer, forgoing the opportunity to receive compensation if he signed elsewhere. Brantley did just that, inking a two-year, $32MM contract with Houston.

Brantley continued to perform over the course of that deal. In 824 plate appearances as an Astro, he’s put up a robust .309/.370/.497 slash line (134 wRC+). He remains one of the league’s tougher batters to strike out and his all-fields approach has helped him sustain strong batting averages on balls in play. Brantley doesn’t put up eye-popping peak exit velocities, but he’s been remarkably adept at avoiding weak contact and mishits.

On the other hand, Brantley’s 33 years old (34 in May) and limited to left field and/or designated hitter. He’ll need to continue to hit at an extremely high level to remain a valuable player. The left-handed hitter holds his own against southpaws but is hardly elite in that regard (career .275/.331/.373 line against LHP). In a market rife with uncertainty (and perhaps flooded with alternatives from non-tenders), the earning power of players like Brantley could be limited.

The Astros’ payroll might be an issue, as well. Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and José Altuve each have sizable contracts on the books already, and there are a few notable arbitration raises to consider. Potentially losing all of George Springer (who’s a slam dunk QO decision), Brantley and Josh Reddick to free agency, the Houston front office will have to address the outfield in some form this offseason. They just might choose to do so more cheaply than by making an $18.9MM offer to Brantley.

Turning it over to MLBTR readers, how should GM James Click proceed?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The National League Have The DH In 2021?

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For the first time since 1972, both the American League and National League played a season under a uniform set of rules.  The institution of the universal designated hitter was one of several concessions made to the unusual circumstances of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, as with pitchers already facing a heightened injury risk from a lack of normal preseason preparation time, the decision was made to spare the pitchers the extra stress of hitting.  Both the league and the players’ union agreed that the DH would become a full-time feature of National League baseball for the first time ever.

What was the reaction?  Well, it probably depended on how you felt about the DH in the first place.  It didn’t quite stand out as much as other oddities of 2020 baseball (i.e. the automatic runner on second base in extra innings, or seven-inning games in doubleheaders) since the DH has been part of the game for almost 50 years, yet some fans of National League teams surely felt unusual watching games played in their favorite team’s ballpark without a pitcher coming to the plate.  If you’re a fan of the Dodgers, Braves, or Padres, you probably learned to love the DH — having an extra lineup spot to house a big bat was a key reason why these three playoff-bound clubs scored the most runs of any team in baseball.

DH-free baseball has long been on the decline at many levels of the game, and the thought was that the universal designated hitter would eventually become part of Major League Baseball.  With the current collective bargaining agreement expiring after the 2021 season, it has long been assumed that the universal DH would be one of the many issues to be debated between the owners and players.  The 2020 implementation was considered to be a first step in that direction, and since the experiment seemed to work well, could the league and the MLBPA simply skip ahead and make the designated hitter permanent in National League baseball?

It won’t be quite so easy, of course.  Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that all rule changes applied only to the 2020 season, so any further changes like a universal DH would have to be settled after another round of negotiation between the league and the players.  With the CBA talks looming and the contentious tone of the negotiations prior to the start of the shortened season still lingering, there may be no such thing as an “easy” decision between MLB and the MLBPA these days.  It is quite likely that the league will try to gain some concessions from the union in exchange for the universal DH, and given how loathe the players have been to concede any ground to the owners, it may be difficult to find common ground on one relatively small issue without opening the larger can of worms that is the myriad of questions facing the sport in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Manfred’s statement about the DH and likelihood of a 2021 rules reset could also be a way of addressing the concerns of National League general managers.  As the Padres’ A.J. Preller recently noted in regards to his team’s club option with Mitch Moreland, the Padres are a little unsure about how to proceed with deciding on Moreland or other roster matters until they know whether or not the designated hitter slot will be available.  If the rules will revert to their pre-2020 state, Manfred was essentially telling Preller and company to prepare as if there won’t be a DH….until, maybe, there is?

As we get closer to Opening Day 2021, MLB will have a better idea of how (or if) the next season will proceed, whether that manifests in another shortened season, fans in the stands, or many other factors related to the state of the pandemic.  It could be that the 2020 rules are re-implemented around, say, early March if it becomes apparent that a normal 162-game schedule isn’t feasible.

But, many player agents and MLBPA members are undoubtedly aware that the lack of a DH spot will mean fewer roster opportunities for players this offseason.  Players like Moreland could have their options declined, defensively-challenged veterans will be less in demand, and even some of the bigger-name designated hitters will again see their markets limited to the American League.  Like MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in regards to Nelson Cruz, the slugger’s desire for a two-year contract would be much easier to find if all 30 teams were candidates (at least on paper) to sign Cruz this winter.

With all these factors in mind, do you think the league and the players will work out a deal for a universal DH in 2021, or will the National League get at least one more years of pitchers at the plate? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

MLBTR Poll: Veteran Free-Agent Shortstops

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Next year’s group of free agents is scheduled to feature a star-studded group of shortstops, as Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez are all due to reach the open market then. The upcoming winter’s shortstop class pales in comparison to that bunch, but there are still a few household names set to become available. As far as veterans go, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to sign this offseason?

The qualifying offer could serve as an impediment for all three players, as each could conceivably receive one. There may not be a better candidate for a QO among the trio than Gregorius, a 30-year-old who’s coming off his latest effective season with the Phillies. He was a key part of the Yankees’ roster from 2015-18, combining for 14.6 fWAR, before taking a step back in ’19 during a year cut short by Tommy John surgery on his left elbow.

Semien, also 30, has enjoyed the greatest peak season of anyone in this group. He was a 7.6-fWAR player with Oakland back in 2019, but Semien was an average to slightly above-average contributor in the years preceding that, and he fell back to earth in 2020.

Simmons, who turned 31 next month, has never been an offensive juggernaut, but a combination of respectable work with the bat and all-world defense have propelled him to a stellar career with the Braves and Angels. There’s no denying Simmons is one of the greatest defenders in recent memory at any position, which could serve him well as a free agent.

In a vacuum, Gregorius looks like the best choice here. He’s most likely to command a multiyear deal and a qualifying offer, but that doesn’t mean every team would prefer him over Semien or Simmons. Keep in mind that Semien and Simmons may not be saddled with a QO, which could make one or both more appealing than Gregorius. All things considered, then, which of these established shortstops would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

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