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MLBTR Poll: Predicting Anthony Rizzo’s Contract

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Anthony Rizzo is one of the higher-profile remaining unsigned free agents. The 32-year-old is a three-time All-Star and a four-time Gold Glove winner. Rizzo also claimed a Silver Slugger award during a 2016 season where he was a key member of the Cubs’ World Series winning squad, and he appeared on MVP balloting every year during his 2014-19 peak.

Yet Rizzo’s numbers have slipped from that middle-off-the-order form over the past two seasons. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .240/.343/.432 hitter. That offensive output is nine percentage points above the overall league average, by measure of wRC+, but it’s a bit below the leaguewide .254/.335/.455 line compiled by first basemen.

Coupled with his age (32), that recent dip in production at the plate makes Rizzo a particularly challenging free agent to value. Teams could view his downturn as a sign that his days as an impact bat are now behind him. Yet he still brings an enviable combination of bat-to-ball skills, impressive exit velocities and well-regarded defense. That’s before considering the intangible value teams might attribute to Rizzo, who was generally viewed as a key clubhouse leader on the Cubs’ playoff rosters.

Rizzo’s two most recent teams — the Cubs and Yankees — have each been mentioned as possible post-lockout suitors for a reunion. The Braves have considered him as a possible alternative if Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere. There haven’t been any other teams with substantive ties to the lefty hitter this offseason, but clubs like the Brewers, Guardians and Marlins could be speculative fits for a first base addition.

The free agent and trade markets for first basemen didn’t move much before the lockout. In addition to the unsigned Freeman and Rizzo, top trade possibilities like Matt Olson and Luke Voit could find themselves on the move. That supply of potentially available star first basemen complicates the situation further, particularly given the rapid transactions frenzy that’s expected to take place once the lockout wraps up.

There haven’t been any firm reports about what kind of deal Rizzo might be targeting this winter. He rejected a five-year, $70MM extension offer from the Cubs during Spring Training. Yet topping that number now — even with the prospect of all 30 teams pursuing him — seems unlikely given his fine but unspectacular 2021 performance. At the start of the winter, MLBTR projected Rizzo to receive a three-year, $45MM guarantee.

What does the MLBTR readership think? For how much will Rizzo sign after the transactions freeze?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Michael Conforto’s Contract

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Whenever teams are again permitted to make major league transactions, clubs in search of corner outfield help will have to sort through a still-strong class. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are unsigned, as is third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. All those players seem in line for significant multi-year contracts, but it’s not as clear whether that’ll be the case for Michael Conforto.

Conforto looked to be on the path to a huge deal after hitting .265/.369/.495 (133 wRC+) between 2017-20. Set to hit free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign, a nine-figure contract didn’t seem out of the question at the start of last season. Yet Conforto went to post his worst results since 2016, a .232/.344/.384 mark with 14 home runs over 479 plate appearances.

That offensive output was still six percentage points better than the league average, by measure of wRC+. The former tenth overall pick walked in a robust 12.3% of his trips to the dish to keep his on-base percentage at a respectable level. He played his home games in Citi Field, one of the more pitcher-friendly environments around the league. Yet for a player limited to the corner outfield, a 106 wRC+ is more fine than especially impressive.

Teams will have to determine how to weigh Conforto’s platform year against his prior four-year run of strong play. From a process perspective, there are some reasons for optimism. Last season’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a personal low, a couple points lower than the league mark. As mentioned, his plate discipline remained strong. His rates of hard contact and barrels (essentially hard-hit batted balls at the optimal angle for power production) were down a tick from his best years but still above-average. It wouldn’t be surprising if Conforto rights the ship moving forward, particularly if he signs with a club that plays in a more hitter-favorable setting.

So Conforto should still be an appealing free agent target, but he’s coming off a much worse platform year than both Castellanos and Schwarber. A long-term investment in Conforto probably feels riskier to teams now than it would’ve eight months ago. And any signing club will have to forfeit a draft pick, since the Washington native received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

There wasn’t much indication as to where Conforto might end up prior to the lockout. The Marlins were the only club known to have substantive interest. Miami already signed Avisaíl García, but they’re reportedly still on the hunt for an addition in the grass. Beyond the Fish, the clubs reaching out to Conforto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain a mystery. So that doesn’t offer much indication about how robust the market might be.

Nor is it clear how much money Conforto and his reps are seeking. Schwarber, though, is reportedly looking for a three-year deal in the $60MM range. The two players were born just five days apart in March 1993, and they’ve been similarly productive since the start of 2019. But with Schwarber coming off the much better platform year, it seems likely he’ll land the larger guarantee of the two whenever they both put pen to paper.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected Conforto would sign a one-year deal in the $20MM range in hopes of a bounceback season before re-testing the market after 2022. That could be a possibility, although his decision to turn down New York’s $18.4MM qualifying offer suggests he wanted to explore multi-year opportunities (or at least loftier single-year proposals) from suitors around the league.

Where does the MLBTR readership expect Conforto’s contract to end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?

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Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.

There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.

In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.

Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.

The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.

The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.

The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe’s offensive production once the lockout is over.

The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.

The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.

The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.

The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.

The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.

The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.

The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.

The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.

You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.

The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.

The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.

The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.

The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?

Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.

The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.

A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Poll: What Is The Rays’ Future In Tampa Bay?

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The Rays’ plan of splitting home games between Tampa Bay and Montreal led to quite a bit of debate and controversy since the club first floated the concept in 2019, though after the Rays asked the league for formal approval of the plan in November, the MLB Executive Council officially rejected the two-city proposal yesterday.

Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said the team’s immediate next step is to again revisit the idea of a new ballpark in the Tampa Bay area, even though multiple attempts at such a project have fallen short over the years.  Tampa mayor Jane Castor recently said that her office would be open to any idea that would keep the Rays in town, yet while the city would also be willing to explore alternate ways of funding a ballpark, Castor drew the line at using taxpayer funds, saying “the community’s appetite to pay for a stadium has left the train station.”

In short, it looks like the Rays may essentially be back at square one, given how Sternburg stressed that his organization had been so fully committed to the Tampa/Montreal plan.  In fact, Sternburg is still a believer in the two-city idea for not just the Rays, but for teams in both Major League Baseball and beyond, stating that “Partial seasons are going to be the wave of the future in professional sports.”

It isn’t yet known why the Executive Council vetoed the Rays’ idea, though the simple answer could be that there were too many logistical hurdles to make such a two-city concept work.  However, just to be purely speculative, it is possible that the league took issue with splitting games between Tampa and Montreal specifically, rather than necessarily vetoing a two-city concept entirely.  With more and more cities increasingly reluctant to commit much or any taxpayer dollars towards building new stadium projects, categorically ruling out a “sister city” plan or other creative ideas wouldn’t be logical for MLB, as the league obviously wants all of its teams in revenue-generating ballpark situations.

Maybe the Executive Council could’ve taken a different view of the plan if the Rays had pitched sharing Tampa and a more nearby city like Orlando, rather than a city 1500 miles away and in a different country.  In the bigger picture, the Council might also have balked at one team covering two distinct markets, especially since Montreal has often been mentioned as a possible landing spot for an expansion team, or for any other existing teams who might eventually look to switch cities.

In any event, the only option that seems certain is that the Rays don’t see Tropicana Field as a long-term option.  The team’s lease at the stadium expires following the 2027 season, and unless the Rays sign a one- or two-year extension to give Tampa or St. Petersburg more time to finish a new ballpark, there is virtually no chance the Rays will still be calling the much-maligned Trop home come Opening Day 2028.

Where does MLBTR’s readership think the Rays will eventually wind up after the 2027 season?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Carlos Rodon’s Contract

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The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly before the transactions freeze. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the clear top two starters remaining, and it seems Kershaw’s market could be limited by geographical concerns. That’d leave Rodón as the lone potential top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency, but his status is complicated by health questions.

Rodón’s story has been covered a few times this offseason. After a few injury-plagued years, the former #3 overall pick broke out with an ace-caliber first half. He was a deserved All-Star and on a potential Cy Young pace until hitting the injured list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder in August. He missed a few weeks — albeit after it was apparent the White Sox were coasting to an AL Central title — before returning to make a few starts at the end of the season.

While Rodón continued to be effective after that IL stint, the average velocity on both his fastball and slider ticked down a couple miles per hour. Rodón’s fastball velocity ramped back up during his lone postseason start (his slider speed did not), but he was knocked out after just 2 2/3 innings during a rough outing against the Astros. The White Sox were eliminated before he got another opportunity to take the hill.

It wasn’t an ideal finish, but Rodón’s season-long production was excellent. He posted a 2.37 ERA with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate over 132 2/3 regular season innings, showcasing dominant swing-and-miss stuff at his best. Yet the White Sox declined to make the 29-year-old a qualifying offer, perhaps indicating some trepidation on the club’s part about his health. Given that durability uncertainty, MLBTR forecasted Rodón to take a one-year, $25MM deal in hopes of duplicating his excellent 2021 numbers in search of nine figures next offseason.

That doesn’t seem to be a course of action Rodón’s considering — or, at least, it wasn’t on the table early in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told reporters in November they’d have rejected a QO had the Sox made one, saying the southpaw was on the hunt for a multi-year deal. Yet there were essentially no substantive rumors regarding Rodón in the weeks leading up to the lockout, leaving his market highly uncertain. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined his best potential landing spots last month.

What kind of deal might Rodón command? Perhaps the market’s other starters can provide some idea. Max Scherzer landed the biggest contract of any starter this offseason, signing for a whopping $130MM over three years. He’s a unique case, with the next couple tiers offering cleaner possible comps. Robbie Ray received five guaranteed years and $115MM, with an opt-out possibility after the third season. Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110MM.

Aside from that trio of nine-figure hurlers, the biggest starting pitching deals went to Eduardo Rodríguez (five years/$77MM, with an opt-out clause after the second season), Marcus Stroman (three years/$71MM, with an opt-out after the second season) and Jon Gray (four years/$56MM). Below them are Steven Matz (four years/$44MM) and Anthony DeSclafani (three years/$36MM).

Where will Rodón fit into that mix? What does the MLBTR readership think his post-lockout contract will be?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Should The Reds Trade Any Of Their High-End Starters?

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It wasn’t an encouraging start to the winter for Reds fans. After trading Tucker Barnhart and waiving Wade Miley in moves that amounted to little more than salary dumps, general manager Nick Krall famously spoke of “aligning … payroll to our resources.” That hinted at a lack of forthcoming additions, and indeed, the Reds have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason.

That said, the Reds haven’t yet orchestrated a sell-off. Barnhart’s a well-respected veteran backstop, but Tyler Stephenson is ready to assume an everyday role. It’s harder to defend cutting Miley, controllable via $10MM club option and coming off a 163-inning, 3.37 ERA season. Yet the soft-tossing Miley is always walking a fine line relying on weak, ground-ball contact. If his run prevention regresses closer to last season’s 4.52 SIERA, that option price would be more reasonable than an immense bargain.

Krall predictably didn’t offer specifics about the franchise’s payroll target for 2022. Currently, they’re projected for $115MM in player expenditures, including estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That’s a touch shy of last year’s season-opening $122MM mark (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Perhaps the Reds have already “aligned” their payroll by parting with Barnhart and Miley and letting Nick Castellanos hit free agency.

If the Reds were either looking to cut costs or add some young talent to the organization, the most straightforward way to do so would be by further subtracting from the rotation. Cincinnati’s top three starters — Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray — are all under club control through 2023 (assuming free agency trajectory isn’t affected by the new collective bargaining agreement). And unlike some other Reds with notable salaries (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez) whom the Reds might want to trade, the rotation members should be in high demand around the league.

Luis Castillo

Castillo, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, tossed 187 2/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA last year. That was his highest mark in three years, but the 29-year-old found his footing after a tough start. He posted a 2.73 ERA from June onwards, with his generally excellent combination of strikeouts (26%) and grounders (59.9%).

Simply ignoring the first two months of the season, when Castillo had an awful 7.22 ERA and subpar 19.3% strikeout percentage, is obviously simplistic. Yet the right-hander’s three-year track record is excellent, and he possesses a fantastic arsenal. Owner of one of baseball’s best changeups and a fastball that averages north of 97 MPH, Castillo seems the most likely of the Reds starters to offer top-of-the-rotation production over the next two years. He’s been the subject of trade rumors in each of the last two offseasons, but reports about the team’s willingness to make him available have varied.

Tyler Mahle

As with Castillo, it’s not clear how willing the Reds seem to be to trade Mahle. He hasn’t been the subject of as many rumors as his top rotation mates this winter. Yet there’d be plenty of appeal if Cincinnati were amenable to moving him. At 27, he’s the youngest of the Reds top trio of starters. Projected for a $5.6MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration year, he’s likely to be the most affordable. And one could make the case he’s coming off the best 2021 campaign of the three.

Mahle’s 3.75 ERA was lower than either of Castillo’s or Gray’s marks. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk percentage bettered the others’ respective figures. He’s not the elite ground-ball guy those others are, but Mahle looks to have made the leap to quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons.

Mahle misses bats with both his mid-90s heater and his two secondary pitches — a cutter-slider and a split. The development of the latter offering has proven especially useful in helping the right-hander overcome platoon troubles, as he leans somewhat frequently on the split when facing left-handed batters. After giving up a massive .290/.384/.547 line when at a platoon disadvantage through his first three MLB seasons, he’s held southpaws to a pitiful .194/.280/.306 mark since the start of 2020.

Sonny Gray

Gray is playing out the 2022 campaign on a $10.667MM contract, and he’s controllable for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. That makes him the costliest of the Reds starters, yet it’s still an obvious bargain for a pitcher who has been as effective as Gray has since landing in Cincinnati.

The right-hander has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks in all three of his seasons with the Reds. Gray may not have quite as pristine of control as Castillo or Mahle possess, but his walk rates aren’t all that concerning. Last year’s 4.19 ERA is more fine than great, but he posted respective 2.87 and 3.70 marks over the two prior seasons. And the 32-year-old Gray was among the sport’s best pitchers at suppressing hard contact, with the Reds mediocre team defense perhaps explaining a bit of a gap between his actual ERA and estimators like FIP, SIERA and xERA — all of which pegged his performance between 3.25 and 3.99.

On the surface, Gray looks like the pitcher the Reds might be most willing to make available. Trading him would knock more money off the books than would a Castillo or Mahle deal, perhaps freeing some room for the front office to address needs in the outfield and/or bullpen. Yet Castillo or Mahle would probably pull stronger returns if they were moved. Trading Gray alone be something of a half-measure: not enough to bring in an influx of impact young talent, while further weakening a roster that finished marginally above .500 last season and has lost or is likely to lose both Miley and Castellanos.

Krall and his staff seem to be in a difficult spot, overseeing a roster that looks a bit shy of contention but without the financial backing to fix its most glaring deficiencies. How they choose to proceed with their trio of high-end starters is yet to be determined, but there’s a compelling argument to move any of the group, as well as a sound case for keeping the entire rotation intact. After all, with two years of control apiece, they should each still be in demand (barring injury) if the team is sputtering by next summer’s trade deadline.

We’ll let MLBTR readers weigh in on the situation. How should the Reds proceed coming out of the lockout?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Seiya Suzuki Sign?

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Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.

During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.

One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.

Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.

Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.

For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?

(poll link for app users)

 

Who Will Sign Kris Bryant?

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Kris Bryant had a rough showing in 2020, with injuries limiting him to 34 games and batting line of .206/.293/.351 for a wRC+ of 75. However, that is the clear outlier on his resume, as his six other seasons have seen him put up a wRC+ of at least 123. Overall, in 884 games, his line is .278/.353/.481, 134 wRC+.

Bryant has been primarily a third baseman in his career, but has diversified his defensive portfolio in recent seasons. In 2021, he still played 55 games at third, but also 48 games in left field, 39 in right, 19 in center, 12 at first base and one at shortstop. With that defensive versatility, it’s possible to fit him into just about any team’s lineup puzzle.

However, some teams won’t be serious contenders for Bryant’s services for financial reasons. MLBTR predicted Bryant to get a contract of $160MM over six years. Some teams have never given a free agent a contract close to that in franchise history, such as the Athletics, Guardians, Pirates and Royals. The Rays made an exception for Wander Franco but don’t seem likely to give out another huge deal this year, even though they considered trading for him last year. The Orioles and Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to throw that kind of money around given the state of their current rosters. The Reds considered acquiring Bryant at last year’s deadline but now seem like they want to subtract payroll rather than adding. Let’s take a look at some of the other options.

Teams With Known Interest

  • Mariners — The Mariners tried to trade for Bryant last year and have been connected to him in free agency. With Kyle Seager reaching free agency and eventually retiring, they have a vacancy at third base for the first time in years. Abraham Toro would be the favorite for now, but he could also platoon at second with Adam Frazier or serve a utility role. They also have an uncertain outfield mix, with a great many talented youngsters on hand, though they all still come with varying degrees of uncertainty. After a 90-win season, they’ve been aggressive in trying to load up for 2022, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier to the squad.
  • Rockies — The Rockies have been fairly quiet so far this offseason, letting Jon Gray go to the Rangers and seemingly content to let Trevor Story eventually depart as well. However, one move they’ve considered is a pursuit of Bryant. If they were to put Bryant at third, Ryan McMahon could theoretically slide to second base with Brendan Rodgers playing shortstop. If they want Bryant in the outfield, they have lots of room there, with none of Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard, Connor Joe or Raimel Tapia being a real obstacle. The addition of the DH in the NL would make the fit even easier.
  • Mets — The Mets had discussions about acquiring Bryant at the deadline last year and have been connected to him in free agency. After spending big on Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, it’s possible the Mets are done with throwing huge checks around. Although now that they’ve pushed their 2022 payroll up to $263MM, it’s unclear if they have any limitations at all, meaning nothing can be ruled out completely.
  • Angels — The Angels were listed among Bryant’s suitors before the lockout. With Anthony Rendon pencilled into third base, Bryant would likely need to play the outfield as long as Rendon is healthy and in the lineup. Mike Trout would take another outfield slot, with Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell and Justin Upton on hand as options as well. The Angels have serious questions about their middle infield, however, meaning they should have higher priorities than Bryant.
  • Padres — Similar to the Angels, the Padres were connected to Bryant before the lockout, despite having an incumbent third baseman in Manny Machado. He could certainly help in the outfield, however, as he’d be a clear upgrade to their current options of Trent Grisham, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar. The question will be how much money they have to spend, as they ran a franchise record payroll of $174MM in 2021 and are already set to start 2022 just under $200MM.
  • Phillies — The Phillies were also rumored to be interested in Bryant before the lockout, which makes sense given their needs. The club has some big question marks in the outfield, outside of Bryce Harper. Bryant could also act as an insurance policy if third baseman Alec Bohm continues to struggle after a disappointing 2021 season.
  • Astros — The Astros reportedly checked in Bryant before the deadline, though it’s a bit hard to see the fit on paper. Alex Bregman is slotted in at third, with the club having an outfield/DH rotation of Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Siri, Chas McCormick and Jake Myers. Shortstop is their most obvious area of need, making someone like Trevor Story a better theoretical fit.
  • Giants — Bryant would be a logical fit with the Giants, given that they traded for him in 2021. However, they are apparently unlikely to consider nine-figure contracts this offseason, which would seem to rule out a reunion.

Speculative Fits

  • Blue Jays — The Blue Jays could certainly use an infield upgrade to make up for the loss of Marcus Semien. They reportedly made a run at Corey Seager before both he and Semien ended up with the Rangers. They apparently still have spending to do after the lockout, even after adding Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia. If Bryant were to take over at third base, Cavan Biggio could return to his natural position of second base, which Semien nudged him off of. They’ve also been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re open to adding in the outfield as well.
  • Dodgers — The Dodgers re-signed Chris Taylor before the lockout to be their super-utility option and seemingly have bigger needs in the rotation. But given how much they love adding depth, they can’t be completely discounted. 2022 is also potentially the team’s final year with AJ Pollock and Justin Turner. (Pollock has a 2023 player option, while there is a club/vesting option for Turner.) Adding Bryant now would be a way for the Dodgers to prepare for the departure of either.
  • Rangers — The Rangers have already spent huge amounts of money to upgrade their infield, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. With Josh Jung on the way to take over the third base, there’s little room for Bryant on the infield. However, the current outfield of Adolis Garcia, Kole Calhoun, Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak could certainly accommodate him. They’ve been connected to Seiya Suzuki recently, suggesting they are considering a significant outfield addition of some sort.
  • Red Sox — Boston subtracted a big right-handed bat when they traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers. Since then, they have been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re looking to replace Renfroe’s bat through free agency. With Bryant in one outfield corner and Alex Verdugo in another, they could have Jarren Duran and Jackie Bradley Jr. competing for the center field job.
  • Yankees — The Yanks have been a sleeping giant so far in this offseason, seemingly pushing major moves until after they could get a look at the new CBA. DJ LeMahieu is the best fit for third base duties at the moment, though he could also defer to Bryant and move over to first base, especially if the club pulls the trigger on a Luke Voit trade. Like the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the Yankees were also connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they could also find a way to work Bryant into the outfield mix, perhaps in combination with a Joey Gallo trade.

Long Shots

  • Braves — The staring contest between Freddie Freeman and the Braves was not settled before the lockout. If they can’t work out a deal, Atlanta could always pivot to Bryant to try and make up for the outfield losing Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson. But with Freeman and Bryant likely looking at similar contracts, it seems much more likely they spend that money on the guy who’s been the face of the franchise and just helped them win the World Series.
  • Brewers — Luis Urias had a nice breakout season in 2021 and seems like the favorite for Milwaukee’s third base job, but he can also play second and shortstop, making him a good candidate for a super-utility role. If the NL adds the DH, it would be even easier for him and Bryant to share playing time. However, the Brewers are currently set to run a payroll of $121MM this year, just shy of their franchise record, which was $123 in 2019. Adding the money it would take to sign Bryant doesn’t seem likely.
  • Cardinals — The Cards already have an excellent third baseman in Nolan Arenado, as well as a solid outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar. After the lockout, they’re reportedly going to be focused on upgrading in the bullpen, though the addition of the DH to the NL could make them more interested in another bat.
  • Cubs — Bringing Bryant back to Wrigley would be a lot of fun, but doesn’t seem likely. The club seems to be eschewing lengthy commitments for the short-term. They did make the surprising add of Marcus Stroman, though his deal is only for a maximum of three years and could be even less if he opts out.
  • Marlins — The Marlins are looking for outfield help but it’s hard to see them putting enough cash on the barrel for Bryant. The $53MM guarantee given to Avisail Garcia was the largest of the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter era. A few days later, they broke that record with Sandy Alcantara’s $56MM extension. With Bryant likely to get more than both of those combined, it’s hard to see the Marlins winning the bidding.
  • Nationals — All signs points to the Nats taking a step back in 2022 and giving playing time to younger, cheaper players. After last year’s fire sale, they have lots of payroll space and could theoretically use it on a big signing like Bryant, though it seems like they’ll be holding their cash for at least a year.
  • Tigers — The Tigers have been aggressive so far but may have already made their big moves with Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. Another huge contract would be a surprise, though a Bryant-Baez reunion would certainly be a fun one.
  • Twins — The Twins have to do something if they want to bounce back from a nightmare season and compete again in 2022. But they already have a strong lineup and have heavy lifting to do in the rotation.
  • White Sox — The White Sox have their biggest need at second base, making Bryant an imperfect fit. They also ran a franchise record payroll of $129MM in 2021 and are currently slated to demolish that with a projected Opening Day payroll of $180MM for 2022. Adding Bryant into the mix would be a surprise.

Which landing spot makes the most sense to you? Which jersey do you think Bryant will be wearing in 2022?

(poll link for app users)

How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

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23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season.  It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier.  The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season.  Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.”  Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier.  $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory.  Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance.  This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season.  How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month.  That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period.  In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added.  But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous.  Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks.  Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier.  We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots.   In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins.  Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

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Poll: What Do You Make Of Service Time?

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Last week we explored a poll covering December transactions from the year 2016, the ramifications of which Nationals, White Sox, and Yankees fans are all feeling to this day. This article’s look-back will touch on another poll from the archives and focus on a topic that affects the league at large: service time regulations.

Service time is one of the more universal components of major league baseball— if a player is on a team’s active roster during the regular season, he’s going to accrue service time. How quickly a player accrues service time affects their career earnings, both through the arbitration process and how quickly they’re compensated in free agency. For teams, service time signals how long they have control of a non-market value (read: very affordable) player, is a major component in assessing trade value, and is closely monitored to maximize a team’s perceived competitive window.

Because the accumulation of service time affects player compensation and a team’s roster construction, it’s not much of a surprise that editing the existing service time structure has been a hot-button issue in the ongoing CBA saga. MLBTR broke down what each negotiating party looked to change with the current service time structure here, but the general attitude of each side can be described as this: the MLBPA wants its players to reach active rosters and free agency as soon as possible, while the league has proposed to rework the system but generally has little urgency to shake up a longstanding way of doing business.

Any changes to the existing service time structure will be tricky, and may require concessions from the benefitting party elsewhere in CBA negotiations. That said, barring a massive overhaul in the way players reach free agency it’s likely that a new system will be just as exploitable as the current iteration.

Teams have always looked to keep their brightest young players under team control for as long and cost-effectively as they can, and it’s unlikely they’ll budge to a structure that will make that mission much harder. Baseball fans meanwhile, will of course want their teams to act logically under any system that’s set in place— more than 73% of voters in a 2018 site poll indicated baseball’s service time structure was tolerable, even if they didn’t think it was fair to players.

Anecdotally, a majority of sampled fans feel that keeping a Kris Bryant-type prospect in the minor leagues for a few weeks in April is okay if it leads to another year of team control. The exceedingly rare instances where that type of player cracks an Opening Day roster, as was the case with the immediately-impactful Fernando Tatis Jr., are welcome breaks from service time considerations and generate buzz, but can seem regrettable if a top player departs a team six years down the road instead of an easily-attainable seven.

With the league preparing its next round of economic proposals, the service time structure as we know it may soon look a bit different. If that proves to be the case and the current structure is modified, it’s possible a deal can be reached that feels workable for teams and more inherently fair to players. That said, there’s no guarantee any changes will be made to service time structure when several other key issues remain on the table. To the fans, at a time when change may be on the horizon, we’ll ask again: how do you feel about MLB’s service time rules?

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