Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Polls

MLBTR Poll: NL Wild Card Matchup

By | at

Unlike the American League, where the Wild Card matchup was not known until the final day of the season, the picture in the National League has been clear for some time. The Los Angeles Dodgers are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals.

In one corner, we have the defending World Series champions and the club with 2021’s highest payroll, by a wide margin. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a stacked team that notched 106 victories this season but still couldn’t manage to outflank the Giants in the NL West. Now they find themselves one loss away from an early winter.

In the other corner, we have baseball hottest team. On July 31st, the Cardinals were 52-52, seven games behind the Padres for the second Wild Card spot. But they stormed through the end of the season, going 38-20, including a remarkable 17-game winning streak, and finished seven games ahead of their nearest competitors, the Reds.

On the mound will be two veterans who each already have World Series rings. 37-year-old Max Scherzer will toe the slab for the Dodgers, just over two years after starting 2019’s National League Wild Card game for the Nationals. In that start, Scherzer tossed five innings, allowing four hits, three walks and three earned runs. Although he left the game with his club down 3-1, the Nationals pulled off an incredible comeback and continued on their way to the 2019 World Series crown. Between Washington and Los Angeles this year, Scherzer threw 179 1/3 innings with 236 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.46.

Representing the opposing dugout will be Adam Wainwright, who continues to make mockery of aging curves. The 40-year-old logged 206 1/3 innings this year with 174 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.05. Incredibly, this will be the ninth season of his career where he has made at least one postseason appearance.

Who do you think will emerge victorious? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

By | at

It took 162 games to decide things, but given all of the uncertainty heading into the final day of the regular season, it is perhaps an upset that a 163rd game (or even a 164th) wasn’t required.  However, the field for the 2021 postseason has now been decided.

The Giants outpaced the Dodgers in a stunning NL West pennant race.  San Francisco shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games, the most victories in the franchise’s 139 seasons.  As a reward, the Giants will get a few days to rest and prepare for the NL Division Series opener on Friday, while Los Angeles (with a whopping 106 wins) will now have to sweat out a single-game eliminator against the hottest team in the sport.

The Cardinals roared into the NL wild card game thanks to a 35-16 record over their last 51 games, including a franchise-record 17-game winning streak.  The Dodgers will host the Cards on Wednesday, and while the two clubs are postseason regulars, this will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 2014.

After a season of tributes to the late Henry Aaron, perhaps it was destiny that Milwaukee and Atlanta would do battle in the postseason for the very first time.  The 95-67 Brewers will host the 88-73 Braves in Game One of their NLDS meeting, which begins on Friday.

The Brewers caught fire in midseason and ran away with the NL Central, topping St. Louis by five games even despite the Cards’ late surge.  Despite a few shaky moments along the way, the Braves nonetheless overcame the loss of injured superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to capture their fourth straight NL East title.

“Champa Bay” has already collected two Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl within the last two years, and the 100-62 Rays will look to add a World Series title to the local trophy case.  The Rays will start their journey in the AL Division Series on Thursday, and they’ll be facing off against a familiar AL East opponent, no matter who wins the AL wild card game.

That opponent will be decided on Tuesday, as the Yankees and Red Sox will add another chapter to their rivalry by meeting in the wild card game for the first time.  Both New York and Boston won today to clinch their postseason berths, finishing with identical 92-70 records (and holding off the 91-win Blue Jays and the 90-win Mariners).  Because the Sox won the season series by a 10-9 margin, Tuesday’s game will take place at Fenway Park.

The Astros and White Sox will square off in the other ALDS matchups, meeting for the first time in the postseason since Chicago defeated Houston in the 2005 World Series.  The 95-67 Astros have the homefield advantage over the 93-69 White Sox, and this series will mark the first-ever postseason meeting between veteran managers Dusty Baker and Tony La Russa.

Now that we know which 10 teams will be continuing into October, the question remains….who do you think will be the last team standing at the end of October? (Link to poll for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

By | at

This season marks the beginning of what should be a competitive era of Blue Jays baseball, but like all good stories, this one began in the middle. Toronto continued their second half surge today with their 83rd win. Over the past year, the Jays have supplemented young cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with an impressive collection of veterans including George Springer, Marcus Semien, Jose Berrios, and two years ago, Hyun Jin Ryu.

Buying low and hitting on reclamation projects like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz – and even Semien – further fueled their organizational turnaround. Give the development team credit for turning less-heralded pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jordan Romano into significant supplemental assets. Young pitching has started to arrive as well, with Alek Manoah impressing in his first 17 starts and Nate Pearson hitting triple-digits in limited usage out of the bullpen.

Charlie Montoyo’s club has pushed all year, but only recently have they angled their way into the AL’s playoff quintet. In fact, today’s win puts them back into playoff position with 14 games to go. Per Fangraphs’ playoff odds, the Jays are well-positioned with a 62.6 percent chance of nabbing one of the two wild card spots.

The Yankees don’t have the momentum of their northern neighbors, but this team is better than the negative press would have you believe. It’s a tough road to hoe, however, with just 13 games remaining and their final nine against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. Put positively: the Yankees control their own fate. A loss today dropped them a half game behind the Jays, but patience is key.

Good thing, because they Yankees aren’t just the tallest team in the AL, they’ve also been the most patient with a 10.4 percent walk rate. Pairing a walk-heavy approach with the power bats of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit, Joey Gallo and Gary Sanchez ought to be a recipe for success. They’ve been six percent better than average as a group since the trade deadline, but their offense ranks just around the middle of the pack on the year: they rank 9th in the AL in runs, 8th by ISO, 6th by wOBA and 7th by wRC+.

The pitching staff has carried the day, however, ranking 2nd in the AL by fWAR, strikeout rate, ERA, and SIERA, and 3rd by FIP. Gerrit Cole has lived up to his billing as one of the game’s few true frontline starters. But he’s not alone, as Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, and Domingo German have all provided valuable innings.

Regardless, they will enter play tomorrow 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the top wild card spot. Boston nabbed their 85th win of the season today, pushing their playoff odds to a robust 85.8 percent. They trail the Rays by 7.5 games, so Tampa’s hold on the division is ironclad, but Boston seems a safe bet to find themselves in the wild card game.

That said, a 1.5 game lead with 12 to go isn’t quite ready to take to the bank. Alex Cora’s team does have the benefit of a soft schedule the rest of the way. Not only do they have the least amount of games remaining among the contenders, but they will happily circle the Beltway for four against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. They have two with the Mets and three with the Yankees, but the BoSox could even mitigate a tough series against the Yanks by taking care of business against inferior teams in those other nine games.

The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees pose the most compelling cases among the wild card hopefuls because of their divisional rivalries and star power – but they aren’t alone. There are a pair of contenders out west who are still hanging around this race.

The Athletics were largely expected to take a step back this season after losing Semien, Liam Hendriks, Tommy La Stella, Robbie Grossman, and Joakim Soria to free agency. But Bob Melvin has turned in another solid season from the bench, steering this club to 80 wins (and counting) and a .544 win percentage. As of this writing, Oakland sits 2.5 games out of a playoff spot with a lead early in their game against the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s return may provide an emotional boost, but with their final four series switchbacking against the Astros and Mariners, they have an uphill climb ahead.

Speaking of the Astros, they have a seven game lead over Oakland for the AL West and a magic number of nine. With six head-to-head match-ups remaining, the A’s could theoretically overtake Houston to win the division, but that’s not all that likely. Houston has a 99.4 percent chance to win the division right now, so that’s probably where they’ll be after game 162.

The Mariners round out our group of potential playoff teams from the American League. They have six more games against a beatable Angels team, but Scott Servais’ crew remains a long shot contender. They are 3.5 games behind Toronto with three teams to leapfrog and a 1.3 percent chance to play beyond the regular season, per Fangraphs.

The Mariners’ aren’t toast yet, but with seven head-to-head match-ups with the A’s still to come, the two western contenders are likeliest to eliminate one another from wild card contention. These final games count the same as any other, however, and something like a 12-2 finish from either the Mariners or A’s wouldn’t be unheard of. All we can say for sure is that it won’t happen for both teams.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk ran through the NL Wild Card contenders just a few days ago, and more than 50 percent of readers went chalk in voting the Cardinals to keep their hold on the NL’s last playoff spot. Now’s your chance to make the call for the AL contenders. Will the Red Sox and Blue Jays hold on? Can the Yankees, A’s, or Mariners yoink a ticket to postseason play? What say you?

(Link to poll for app users)

(Link to poll for app users)

Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

By | at

The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Amed Rosario’s Future

By | at

Amed Rosario found his swing in August. The Indians shortstop slashed .372/.397/.584 in 121 plate appearances across 26 games in August. That effort buoyed his overall line to .288/.327/.422, two percent better than average by measure of wRC+. Among qualified shortstops, Rosario ranks 13th in the Majors, firmly between Javier Baez and Nicky Lopez. Both Baez and Lopez are considered plus defenders, however, while the jury is still out on Rosario (-8 DRS, 1.4 UZR,-1 OAA in 876 innings).

In fact, there’s question as to whether Rosario will be a shortstop at all next season, writes Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. The uncertainty is driven not so much by his glovework, however, but because of Andres Gimenez, whose defensive prowess makes him a better long-term fit for the position. Gimenez has yet to hit for the Indians, but he tore up Triple-A with a .287/.342/.502 line. Still just 22-years-old, the Indians hope that he can seize shortstop as his own next season. If that happens, Rosario could be expendable.

When played together, Cleveland has put Gimenez at the keystone, though that doesn’t seem to be the long-term plan. That might speak to an uneasiness about playing Rosario at second, or it could be that they’d just rather keep the consistency of Rosario at short for this season. In theory, Rosario could have a future at second, but we haven’t seen him play there yet, and Lewis suggests he’s more likely to be utilized in the outfield.

Rosario’s development at the plate, therefore, hasn’t solidified Cleveland’s shortstop picture, but it does provide the organization with the one thing every front office wants these days: flexibility. Rosario could well be used at shortstop, but he could also return to the outfield or even be used as trade bait, Lewis notes.

If he does go back to the grass, it’s more likely to be in one of the corners than in center. Myles Straw has stabilized center, allowing Rosario to slide to a corner to potentially cover for Josh Naylor until he’s healthy enough to return. Rosario spent 123 1/3 innings in center this year, not enough of a sample to make a decision about his defensive ability there, but enough to grant credence to the idea of Rosario as a supersub.

The concern would be that Rosario’s bat doesn’t yet play as a plus in an outfield corner. That said, the depth at shortstop league-wide is such that the positions aren’t as far apart as in the past. By wRC+, Rosario would rank 18th among right fielders with at least 400 plate appearances, or 14th among left fielders – suggesting that Rosario could be a passable option in a corner.

He certainly could have a role as a supersub who plays everyday, but he might bring more value to a club who wants to install him as their everyday shortstop. He has two years of team control remaining, which adds to his appeal.

What happens next might depend on how the 25-year-old finishes the season. Cleveland has time to figure this out, but if Rosario has finally established himself as an everyday regular, the rest is gravy. Now they just have to figure out what to do with him. Can we point them in the right direction?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Cardinals Do With Alex Reyes?

By | at

The Cardinals rotation has featured a series of guest stars and few regulars this season, with 12 different pitchers taking a turn and only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright logging enough innings to qualify. As a group, they’re 13th in the Majors in terms of starters’ innings, and 12th league-wide by measure of ERA (4.02 ERA). By measure of FIP, however, their 4.46 FIP ranks 20th in the game, and if we look ahead to 2022, there’s more than enough uncertainty to make nervous thinkers in Redbird Nation fret.

The five guys currently taking hill turns for manager Mike Shildt have an average age of 36.5, so it’s not a sprightly group. Except for Miles Mikolas, they’re all heading towards free agency at year’s end, too. In fact, of those 12 players who have started a game in 2021, six will be free agents, and John Gant has already been dealt to Minnesota. All of which is to say, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them before Opening Day 2022.

The cupboard isn’t barren, however. For starters, there will be the annual Wainwright retirement question. But with Yadier Molina coming back for one final season, isn’t it almost too perfect for Waino to do anything but follow suit?

Jack Flaherty raises the ceiling of the group, and they’ve made clear that priority one is getting their ace ready for next season, even if that means shutting it down the rest of this year. Dakota Hudson will be an interesting wildcard as he returns from Tommy John. Mikolas is also trying to get healthy, having made just three starts this season. The Cards are on the hook to pay him $17MM in each of the next two seasons, so if the 33-year-old can get healthy, he should have a rotation spot.

Not to mention, any of Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, T.J. Zeuch, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, or Angel Rondon could be given a look. There are definitely arms floating around in the organization that could ramp up to earn rotation minutes.

But there’s another familiar name that’s going to be given a chance to win a rotation spot: Alex Reyes.

Reyes turns 27-years-old tomorrow, and the former top prospect is in the midst of an establishing campaign. In what’s really been his first full season in the bigs, Reyes has a 2.50 ERA/3.90 FIP over 57 2/3 innings. His usage has certainly been consistent: of his 55 appearances, 50 of them have finished the game, a mark that leads the Majors. Simply put, he’s gone from a high-ceiling rotation question mark to an All-Star closer.

But next season, Reyes will follow Carlos Martinez in the Cardinal tradition of yo-yo-ing organizational expectations from starter to closer and back again. Let’s be clear, for this season, Reyes is the Cardinals closer and that’s the end of it. But next year is a different story, said Shildt on MLB Network Radio. Reyes will be given the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in 2022.

Reyes has maintained a starter’s arsenal in the bullpen, throwing his fastball, slider, and sinker with almost equal usage rates. He’s been even more diverse against lefties, mixing in an occasional curveball or change-up as needed. His heater has averaged 96.5 mph, which is right around what he was averaging when he first came up as a starter. It might be, then, that he’d lose a tick or two if spread out to a starter’s workload.

The concern relates to his injury history and whether or not the Cards should risk losing another valuable bullpen arm by risking a move to the rotation. There’s more upside in the rotation, of course, but there’s something to be said for letting Reyes stay where he’s been successful. After all, if there’s a desire to get him more time on the mound, the Cards could ramp up his usage with multi-inning outings instead of making a full-scale switch to the rotation.

However many innings Reyes finishes with this season will be his most in a single year since the 2016 campaign. He threw between 100 and 110 innings from 2014 to 2016, which is pretty typical for a young arm on the rise. Whether one healthy season is enough to make Reyes ready for that kind of workload again is unclear.

As a starter, of course, the hope would be that he’d surpass even those totals. That said, it’s looking like only Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim will accumulate more than 100 innings from the Cards’ rotation this season, so there’s space to make an impact even without posting an 150-inning season.

Even tempering expectations, the Cards could expect 40-50 more innings from Reyes if he can stay healthy in the rotation. Considering his injury history, however, it’s tempting to take the money on the table now and settle in with Reyes as the closer of the next few years.

Of course, Cardinal closers haven’t been any more immune to arm injuries than their starters have, so there’s an argument to be made that whichever course they take with Reyes, there’s risk. If that’s the case, why not pursue the upside of a rotation slot?

From the beginning of the year, the Cardinals have maintained that this season would be an opportunity to inch Reyes’ workload closer to that of a starter and look ahead next season. He’s been much closer to a traditional reliever than the multi-inning firearm we might have expected, but he’s still likely to finish with something close to 70 innings.

The last consideration is timeline. Even though this will be Reyes’ first full season in the Majors, he has just two years of arbitration remaining, so it might be now or never to see if Reyes can be a starter before he hits the open market. Two years as a starter might make Reyes too pricey for the Cards, but it might also give them enough certainty to lock him up at the right rate, knowing he could be a starter moving forward.

Wainwright believes Reyes can make the jump, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who provides this quote from Reyes about Wainwright: “He always looks at me and tells me, ‘Hey man, you’re a starter. You know I was there, and I was able to do it. I believe you can. Just those words of encouragement, they make me feel good. And also, they give me the thought. Someone like Adam Wainwright, who has had such a long career here and has been pitching for so long, if he thinks like that of me?”

Let’s give the St. Louis brass some help and point them in the right direction.

(poll link for app users)

Justin Verlander And The Qualifying Offer

By | at

It’s always been a long shot that Justin Verlander would be able to return in 2021, but Astros general manager James Click confirmed to Sean Salisbury of SportsTalk 790 AM in Houston this morning that Verlander won’t pitch for the team down the stretch (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Click tells Salisbury that Verlander recently inquired with his doctors about the possibility and was “strongly advised” against attempting a comeback in 2021, as such a quick turnaround would carry “tremendous risk for the efficacy of the surgery.” Verlander had previously spoken with a hint of optimism about returning as a reliever in the season’s final weeks.

Verlander tweeted back in May that he planned to continue pitching “for a long time” and hasn’t considered retirement, but it’s not yet clear where he’ll continue his career. The 38-year-old (39 in February) is set to hit the open market at season’s end, though the ’Stros will first need to determine whether they want to make a qualifying offer to Verlander.

A one-year offer in the $19MM range would normally be deemed steep for any pitcher coming off a season spent rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but Verlander is, of course, no ordinary pitcher. He’s only pitched six innings since Opening Day 2020, but Verlander is a two-time Cy Young winner, a three-time Cy Young runner-up, an eight-time All-Star and a former American League MVP. His last full season, pitched at 36 years of age in 2019, saw him rack up 223 innings of 2.52 ERA ball en route to the second of those two Cy Young wins.

A straightforward path for Verlander may be to simply accept a payday in the $19MM range — if offered — and remain in a setting where he’s clearly comfortable. That sum checks in well north of the recent bounceback salaries we’ve seen for similarly high-profile names like Corey Kluber ($11MM), so there’d be good reason for him to consider it. On the other hand, it’s a pretty sizable cut from Verlander’s prior $33MM salary, and the veteran may simply want to test the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Verlander has played out his entire career on a series of extensions with the Tigers and Astros, so he’s never explored the open market.

The question for the Astros, meanwhile, is whether they’d want to invest $19MM (or thereabouts) into a soon-to-be 39-year-old pitcher who has made just one start since winning that Cy Young Award in 2019. There aren’t many more appealing players on whom to take a one-year flier than Verlander, but the Houston payroll is already rather large.

[Related: 2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates]

The Astros have just under $97MM on the books in 2022, and that’s before arbitration raises to Framber Valdez (first time eligible), Josh James (first time), Phil Maton (second time), Ryne Stanek (second time), Rafael Montero (third time) and Aledmys Diaz (third time). That $97MM number also doesn’t include club options for Yuli Gurriel ($8MM) or Ryan Pressly ($10MM) — both of which seem sure to be picked up, barring a late injury. None of those arb-eligible players will break the bank in terms of 2022 salary — some could obviously be non-tendered, too — but those smaller salaries will begin to add up.

Furthermore, the Astros will have some big names to replace. Carlos Correa is a free agent and could land elsewhere after rejecting the team’s extension overtures in Spring Training. Consummate innings eater Zack Greinke is set to hit the market as well, and the Astros also stand to lose relievers Kendall Graveman, Yimi Garcia and Brooks Raley to free agency. If Verlander were to accept a qualifying offer, the Houston payroll could jump north of $140MM before the team even looks at replacing Correa or any of the departing relievers. Their 2021 payroll currently sits at about $189MM.

The in-house rotation depth the Astros already possess is also a factor in determining whether to extend a qualifying offer to Verlander. Even with a pair of likely Hall of Famers potentially departing (Greinke, Verlander), the Astros can still boast a staff of Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia,Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. That’s before even considering upper-level arms like Hunter Brown and Peter Solomon. There’s an argument to be made that dedicating a sizable portion of available offseason resources to a rebound candidate in the rotation — even one with as much upside as Verlander — shouldn’t be the team’s priority.

We know the Astros are going to make a qualifying offer to Correa, and as one of the top free agents on the market, he’ll reject that QO without a second thought. Verlander is a closer call, but the Astros will surely be intrigued by the possibility of getting a compensatory pick after their recent penalties in the draft (stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal). Plus, even with the in-house options they do have, a one-year deal for Verlander has plenty of appeal. The Astros could, and probably should, just extend the qualifying offer and be happy with either outcome.

What do MLBTR readers think? (Links to both polls)

MLBTR Poll: Can The A’s Replace Ramon Laureano?

By | at

The Oakland A’s were a popular pick to regress this season after winning the AL West with a .600 win percentage during the truncated 2020 season. The presumption of the A’s decline was fueled by the departures of impact players in free agency: namely, Marcus Semien to Toronto, Tommy La Stella to San Francisco, Liam Hendriks to Chicago, and Robbie Grossman to Detroit.

Those were notable losses, but lackluster replacements spoke more to the overall skepticism surrounding the team: Elvis Andrus and an aged Jed Lowrie in the infield, Mitch Moreland taking many of the at-bats in the designated hitter spot that went to Grossman (with holders Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, or Stephen Piscotty taking his spot in the field), and Trevor Rosenthal signed to assume the closer’s role.

Of course, the details of the “Moneyball” model that made the A’s front office famous has changed over the years, but one thing that hasn’t is their non-linear approach to roster creation. Replacing Semien, La Stella, Hendriks, and Grossman wasn’t a casting problem. If it were, the collective 0.6 rWAR accrued by their replacements would be enough to tank this roster.

Instead, the A’s are outperforming their projections with a 62-48 record, which carries a 57.4% chance of making the playoffs. They’re just three games behind the Astros for the division lead, 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees for the second wild card spot.

It seems like every year now that the A’s simply find a way. They were left for dead mid-way through last season, too, when star Matt Chapman was lost for the year. When they chose to replace him with scrapheap pickup Jake Lamb and platoon-players like Chad Pinder and Vimael Machin, it seemed that the A’s were doomed for a second-half skid.

Not so. Despite posting nearly identical win percentages the two seasons prior (.599 in both 2018 and 2019, 97-win seasons), 2020 marked Oakland’s first division title since 2012 and 2013. With the Ramon Laureano suspension now in effect, can the A’s yet again survive the loss of a key two-way position player?

Obviously, the acquisition of Starling Marte at the deadline looks even better now than it did a week ago. He certainly stands as a more significant replacement than Lamb from a year ago. And yet, bringing in Marte seemed like such a boon because he shored up a real weak spot in the lineup. That spot is back to being a question mark for the final two months of the season.

Marte can ably fill the void defensively. Despite Laureano’s flashy tools, there’s an argument to be made that an outfield of Mark Canha, Marte, and Seth Brown could be better defensively. Laureano’s -1 OAA comes in last behind Marte at +6 and Canha and Brown both at +4. DRS and UZR give Laureano more credit, but Marte ought to nevertheless mostly replace his glove.

With the bat, Brown and Stephen Piscotty are likely to step back in as a relatively straightforward platoon in right. Piscotty’s been below-average this season, but he’s better against lefties with a 98 wRC+. The same can be said for Brown going the other way with his 97 wRC+ against right-handers. Together that doesn’t exactly add up to Laureano’s 114 wRC+, but it helps close the gap.

Of course, replacing a player for the A’s always involved a bit of sleight of hand. Utility man Josh Harrison might be the answer to replacing Laureano, either by slotting directly into the outfield, or by taking time at second while Kemp moves to the grass. Harrison played his way back into relevance with a .291/.363/.431 line over 450 plate appearances with the Nationals the past two seasons. The upgrade from Aramis Garcia (54 wRC+) to Yan Gomes (104 wRC+) may also help pick up some of the slack — as might the addition of Andrew Chafin in the pen.

So how worried should A’s fans be? Will they have enough to hold off the onrushing Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners for a playoff spot? Can they catch the Astros? What say you of Oakland’s chances the rest of the way?

(poll link for app users)

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Which Contender Should Trade For Jonathan Schoop?

By | at

The Tigers are 47-53, 12 games behind the White Sox for the division lead. Their fate was sealed by a disastrous April when they went 8-19 to start the year. Since then, they’ve actually put together three consecutive winnings months, including an 11-8 mark so far in July. These Tigers have played perhaps the most enticing stretch of baseball we’ve seen from Motor City in years, but they’re still sellers heading into this trade deadline.

Jonathan Schoop, Jose Cisnero, Kyle Funkhouser, Gregory Soto, Daniel Norris, and Jeimer Candelario are the names most likely to draw trade interest here in the week before the deadline, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Schoop’s name has certainly been bandied about the most in the Twitterverse, mostly as a lower-cost option for teams not interesting in paying presumably high-end returns for other available infielders like Trevor Story or Adam Frazier.

Schoop, after all, is a free agent at the end of the year and making just $4.5MM. He doesn’t have the controllable contract like Frazier or the long-term track record of Story, but he would nonetheless be a valuable addition for someone.

With a 116 wRC, he’s an above-average bat for the third time in five years (he was exactly average with a 100 wRC+ in 2019. He’s slashing .289/.330/.471 with a .182 ISO that’s actually a little low for Schoop’s norms. He’s doesn’t strike out over much and his bat carries consistent pop.

Defensively, he’s not garnering the plus marks that he has in the past, but he can still handle multiple positions as a first and second baseman. He absolutely crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a 161 wRC+ this year. He’s a first division platoon bat with the capability of being an everyday, impact player on a playoff team. He fits the Howie Kendrick mold from the 2019 Nationals, and though it’s not fair to put Hendricks’ heroic expectations onto Schoop, he can be that kind of all-purpose, veteran bat that won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire.

Like Kendrick, his physical abilities don’t leap off the page, and he doesn’t play a premium position, but he’s a textbook professional hitter. Schoop isn’t the big name that many fan bases might be hunting, but if the Tigers are inclined to move him, he can absolutely be a difference-making piece for a contender. Just a couple weeks ago, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk did the work of finding the best fits for Schoop, but let’s hear from you: which contender would benefit the most from adding Schoop’s potent right-handed bat to their first base/second base/DH/bench crew?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

By | at

With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

(poll link for app users)

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top