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MLBTR Poll: AL West Winner

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Heading into play Tuesday, there’s only one division where the lead is two games or fewer. That’s the AL West, which has a pair of teams within two games of the frontrunner. Whoever wins the division is very likely to get a first-round bye — all three teams are at least five games clear of the AL Central-leading Twins — adding extra incentive for the clubs to secure more than a Wild Card spot.

With the Angels now 11 games out and the A’s on their way to 110+ losses, we’ll take a look at the three remaining teams with a plausible path to contention:

Texas Rangers, 72-53 (lead division by 1.5 games)

The Rangers have had a share of the division lead for all but one day of the season. They’ve been in sole possession of first place going back to May 6, stretching their margin out to 6.5 games in the final week of June. Texas has allowed the gap to close in recent weeks, playing slightly below .500 ball between June and July. They rebounded to win 10 of 11 to start August but have dropped six of eight since then (including five in a row).

Texas has been far and away the best offensive team in the division. They trail only Atlanta overall in runs and all three slash stats. They’ve cooled off a bit following a scorching start, ranking eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break. Even after losing Jacob deGrom, the rotation has held up remarkably well — and deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery couldn’t have performed much better through their respective first four starts in a Ranger uniform.

The biggest question mark, as has been the case the entire season, is the bullpen. Texas relievers rank 25th in ERA overall; they’re 24th with a 4.96 figure since the start of the second half. The front office added to the relief corps this summer, bringing in Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton. They’ve each been effective (although Chapman blew a save in last night’s extra-inning loss in Arizona) but the group has been shaky enough overall to contribute to a handful of frustrating defeats.

Texas is 9-17 in one-run contests and 2-5 in games that go to extra innings. There’s probably some amount of poor fortune baked into that mark, but it’s hard to attribute those struggles all to luck (particularly after the Rangers were a staggering 15-35 in one-run games a season ago).

Among all major league teams, only the Braves have a superior run differential to the Rangers’ +184 mark. Few teams are capable of bludgeoning an opponent the way Texas can. Can they lock down enough tight games to hold off their two top competitors?

Houston Astros, 71-55 (1.5 games back of Texas, 0.5 ahead of Seattle)

The defending World Series winners entered the season as the favorites to capture another AL West crown. Yet this year’s Houston club, while very good, hasn’t played at the same level as last year’s 106-win squad.

That’s primarily a reflection of a step back on the pitching front. Last year’s club finished the regular season eighth in run scoring; they’re sixth in that regard this season. Their run prevention has regressed a bit, as they’ve dropped from second to fifth in ERA. After finishing second in the majors with a 26% strikeout rate a season ago, they’re down to ninth (at 24%) this year.

It’s certainly not a bad pitching staff — Houston is still in the upper third of the league in most categories — but injuries slowed them early in the year. Luis Garcia won’t return from Tommy John surgery. They got nothing from Lance McCullers Jr. because of persistent forearm issues. Allowing Justin Verlander to depart in free agency subtracted the defending Cy Young winner for the season’s first few months. He’s back in the fold but hasn’t been as dominant in 2023 as he was a year ago. José Urquidy missed a couple months with shoulder issues, while Cristian Javier has been inconsistent after an excellent start to the year.

Strong rookie showings from Hunter Brown and J.P. France were instrumental in keeping the club afloat while Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy were on the injured list. With Urquidy now healthy and Verlander back, Houston’s rotation again runs six deep. The lineup is nearing full strength with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez healthy and Michael Brantley on a rehab stint. First baseman José Abreu is in an uncertain spot because of a back injury, though he hasn’t produced even when healthy.

The Astros have never really had a chance to fire on all cylinders. They haven’t spent a single day with even a share of first place since losing on Opening Day. They’ve hung around, though, and they’re getting closer to trotting out the roster they’ve more or less envisioned.

Seattle Mariners, 70-55 (2 games back of Texas, 0.5 back of Houston)

The Mariners have been the hottest team in the American League over the past two months. Seattle had been remarkably average for the first few months, never winning nor losing more than four consecutive games through the end of July. Even after going 17-9 in July, the M’s trod an uncertain course at the deadline. They dealt away closer Paul Sewald to add MLB-ready but more controllable offensive help in the form of Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas. Unlike their division rivals in Arlington, Houston and even Anaheim, the Mariners didn’t make any headline-grabbing deadline acquisitions.

No matter, Seattle is an AL-best 15-4 since the calendar flipped to August. They’ve rattled off separate win streaks of seven-plus games (the latter of which is ongoing) this month. Part of the front office’s logic in trading Sewald was their confidence the bullpen was deep enough to remain excellent; the relief corps is indeed fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeout rate since the deadline.

Seattle’s rotation has been among the league’s best all year. They lead the majors in innings and rank sixth in ERA. Rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have stepped in well behind the star trio of George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert. The biggest recent turnaround has been the offense. A lineup which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto frankly conceded four weeks ago was “an average major league offense” trails only Atlanta and Philadelphia in scoring this month.

After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, they lead the league in wRC+ in August. They’ve gotten contributions throughout the batting order. Of the 11 Seattle hitters with 40+ plate appearances, only Rojas has posted below-average numbers. Julio Rodríguez has arguably been the best player on the planet over the past three weeks, while Ty France and Teoscar Hernández have caught fire after previously underwhelming seasons by their standards.

All of a sudden, the Mariners are firmly within striking distance of what could be their first division title since 2001. They’ll control their own destiny into the season’s final week and a half. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com observed (on Twitter), Seattle’s final three series are against the clubs they’re trying to track down. They’ll finish the regular season with a three-game set in Arlington, three at home against Houston, and then four more against the Rangers at T-Mobile Park.

———————

How does the MLBTR readership envision things playing out? Which team will take home the division crown, and for good measure, how many teams from the AL West will snag a Wild Card berth?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The NL Central?

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With the Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing season taking them out of contention early, the NL Central has been thrown wide open in 2023.  Even the Pirates looked like they might have a breakout in them after an impressive 19-9 start in April, though their subsequent struggles have shown that the Bucs aren’t yet out of the rebuilding woods.

That has left three teams still in the mix, as the Brewers, Reds, and Cubs enter Sunday’s action battling for not only the NL Central title, but playoff berths of any sort via the wild card.  Milwaukee holds a three-game lead in the division, while the Cubs are just narrowly ahead of Cincinnati by percentage points, which also puts Chicago into the final NL wild card slot.

In something of a topsy-turvy year in the division, the Brewers have been the constant.  Milwaukee has spent the entire season either in first place, or no more than two games behind the NLC lead.  This success has come despite a middling Pythagorean record — the Brewers have outscored opponents by just a single run, yet have a 67-57 record.  With tiebreakers possibly looming as a factor, the Brewers have already won the season series with the Reds (with a dominant 10-3 record) and have a 4-3 edge in games against the Cubs.

As per usual, the Brew Crew has leaned on their pitching to win games, even their usually strong rotation has been more good than great in 2023.  A number of injuries have impacted the pitching mix, most notably a shoulder strain for Brandon Woodruff that cost the former All-Star about four months of action.  Milwaukee’s best pitching performances have come at the back of the bullpen, as closer Devin Williams and setup man Joel Payamps have been arguably baseball’s best one-two endgame combination.  This ability to hold close leads has been the main factor in the Brewers’ 25-11 record in one-run games, though that kind of anomalous success might hint at some regression.

While Milwaukee’s pitching has helped prop up a lackluster offense, the Reds have something of the opposite problem.  The emergence of Cincinnati’s core of top prospects has been one of the top stories of the 2023 season, as rookies Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Will Benson have all helped carry the Reds out of a rebuild and to a 64-60 record.  Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have also made their MLB debuts to add to this position player core, not to mention the contributions of Jonathan India, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and the ageless Joey Votto.

With a 29-35 record on June 9, the Reds suddenly shot into relevance and contention with a 12-game winning streak, and they’ve stayed afloat ever since, despite a rough 1-8 start to the month of August.  Beyond the question of how the rookies can hold up under pennant race pressure, Cincinnati’s bigger issue is a lack of pitching, as Reds starters rank in the bottom three in the league in both ERA and WHIP.  The returns of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Ben Lively from the injured list are being counted on to boost the rotation, as the Reds didn’t acquire any starting pitching at the trade deadline.

Just a month ago, the idea of the Cubs competing for the NL Central title would’ve seemed inconceivable, as the Wrigleyville nine had a 43-50 record.  Just when it looked like Chicago might be one of the key sellers at the trade deadline, however, the team caught fire.  The Cubs went 18-6 over 24 games between July 18 and August 12, finishing second in baseball in runs (160), RBI (151), average (.291), slugging percentage (.508) and wRC+ (135) in that stretch.  Cody Bellinger’s huge run at the plate fueled a lot of that offensive eruption, but unheralded minor league signing Mike Tauchman wasn’t far behind Bellinger’s numbers.  The late success turned the Cubs into deadline buyers, and after coming back to Chicago in a deal with the Nationals, Jeimer Candelario has also been on fire.

Chicago’s rotation has been solid overall, yet it took a big hit with the news that Marcus Stroman will miss the next several weeks recovering from a rib cartilage fracture.  Losing one of their two best starters for an extended period (and maybe even the rest of the season) will test the Cubs’ starting depth, and the lineup might have to keep carrying the load to keep the team in the race.

With apologies to the Cardinals and Pirates, we’re going to assume that a miraculous late-season surge isn’t coming, so we’re going to limit the poll choices to the top three contenders. Who do you think will finish atop the NL Central standings?  (Link to poll for app users)

Poll: What Path Should The Mets Pick With Pete Alonso?

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The outlook for the Mets has completely changed in recent months. They spent heavily this winter, running up the highest payroll in major league history, and came into the season as World Series contenders. Unfortunately, they struggled to get into a groove in the early parts of the season and decided to sell at the deadline. Not only did they flip rental pieces like Tommy Pham and David Robertson, but also guys who could have helped the 2024 club like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Mark Canha.

After being traded to the Rangers, Scherzer spoke publicly about how he was given the sense that next year “is now looking to be more of a kind of transitory year,” with the aggression dialed back a bit. Owner Steve Cohen addressed that situation the next day, essentially confirming Scherzer’s framing by saying that the 2024 club “won’t be as star-studded” as this year’s team. He did say that he hopes the team will still be “very competitive” and that this “doesn’t mean we’re not going to bring in free agents,” but it seems the plan is to step back.

Now that the deadline has passed, the club can’t make any more trades for the next few months, but it’s possible they could resume their selling in the offseason. Starling Marte will still have two years remaining on his contract after this one, with salaries of $19.5MM in each season. José Quintana will have one year and $13MM left on his contract. Omar Narváez is a lock to trigger his $7MM player option and Adam Ottavino seems like he’ll exercise his at $6.75MM as well. The club has a $6.5MM option for the services of Brooks Raley in 2024. Trevor Gott has one year of control and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $1.2MM salary.

If the Mets are looking to continue down the path they picked at the deadline, trading veterans for prospects and eating money to get a better return, any of those players could be a candidate for such an approach. Some of those cases will present the club with difficult decisions, but the most challenging will be their choice of how to handle Pete Alonso. He is making $14.5MM this year and is eligible for one more arbitration raise in 2024, before he’s slated for free agency.

Alonso, 28, is obviously an incredibly talented hitter. From his 2019 debut to the present, he’s hit 180 home runs, including 34 this year. His career batting line of .255/.343/.533 is 37% better than league average, according to wRC+. His home run tally in that stretch is the highest in the majors and that wRC+ places him just outside the top 10 among qualified hitters.

With the Mets looking to ease off the gas pedal in 2024 and Alonso slated for the open market after that campaign, the club will have to pick a lane. They could pursue trades in the offseason, though doing so would come with the negative public relations hit of moving on from a homegrown star player, as Alonso was drafted by the Mets in 2016. They could also try to sign Alonso to a long-term extension, though he would have to agree to any such pact.

The Mets could also kick the decision down the road and see how things go in 2024. It doesn’t seem like they will be giving up all hopes of contention. As Cohen said, it seems they will likely still bring in some free agents and see how things go next year. The club could hang onto Alonso until next year’s deadline, see if the baseball gods are any kinder to them and pick a lane at that point. Even if they held onto to him all the way through 2024 and took a shot at contending, they could recoup a draft pick by extending him a qualifying offer at that point. That path would come with some risk, as Alonso could always suffer an injury or a downturn in performance, causing his trade value to drop.

The path of pursuing a trade this offseason would certainly lead to the club finding many suitors. They will only be marketing one year of his services but the free agent crop of position players in incredibly weak this winter, with the class far heavier on the pitching side. Alonso will be making a hefty salary which could eliminate some suitors, but the Mets haven’t been shy about swallowing money in order to facilitate deals, sending more than $35MM to the Rangers in the Scherzer deal.

The Mets certainly have the resources to get an extension done, though it’s unclear how much appetite they would have to get one done with Alonso. Cohen recently called him “an integral part of the Mets” and hoped they can “work things out” on a long-term deal, but their plan to dial back their spending might clash with that. They already have significant long-term deals on the books for Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil, which means they already have over $100MM on the books as far out as 2026.

If the Mets are focused on building up their pipeline of young talent and assessing the future before charting their next big moves, will they want to add a massive deal for Alonso to the pile when that will surely require a nine-figure outlay of some kind? There’s also the question of how his defense will age, since he’s not a star in that department as it is. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a passable +3 grade for his career, but Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at -2.9 with Outs Above Average at -16. A long-term deal would come with the risk of him sliding into DH-only status over time.

Perhaps another factor will be the development of the prospects they have recently added to the system. Ryan Clifford, acquired from the Astros in the Verlander deal, can play the outfield corners but has spent more time at first base this year. He has yet to reach Double-A but the Mets surely acquired him in the hopes that he would be a part of a future championship core at some point down the line. Perhaps they would prefer to track his development before deciding on how to proceed with Alonso.

Until the Mets either trade Alonso or get an extension done, his in-between status is likely to be one of the biggest storylines this offseason. What do you think is the path they should take? Put him on the trading block and continue loading the farm system for future success? Lock him up so that he can be a part of the next competitive window? Or wait until the 2024 deadline, when they will have more information about their own competitive chances and the development of their prospects?

Have you say in the poll below. (Link to poll for app users)

Poll: Should The Mariners Trade Teoscar Hernández?

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The Mariners are one of many teams in an awkward spot right now. After breaking their postseason drought last year, they had hoped for another competitive season in 2023, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far. They have played 100 games and are currently 50-50, putting them fourth in the American League West, 8.5 games back of the Rangers while also trailing the Astros and Angels. They are 5.5 games back of the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels in between.

That doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost, as those are surmountable obstacles (particularly the Wild Card chase). But their chances aren’t great at the moment, with the playoff odds at FanGraphs currently giving them an 11.6% chance of getting in while Baseball Prospectus has them at just 8.2%.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto discussed the club’s tough position last week, admitting that the Mariners have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end” and might have to decide whether it is “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.” He went on to say they probably wouldn’t make any big splash like last year’s Luis Castillo acquisition and that selling is on the table because they always have “one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller.”

There won’t be any need for the M’s to completely tear their roster down to the studs. The 2024 team will still feature a strong pitching staff, as their collective 3.80 earned run average is one of the five best in the majors and none of their hurlers are slated to reach free agency this winter. On the position player side, they will still be able to count on a core that consists of Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Cal Raleigh, Ty France and J.P. Crawford. They would have some offseason work to do, but there are enough ingredients there for them to see a path towards better results next year.

But as Dipoto mentioned, they may need to think about doing some selling, even if it’s not a total rebuild. The club has some impending free agents, but most of them won’t have much appeal. AJ Pollock is hitting just .173/.225/.323 and just landed on the injured list, while Kolten Wong’s offense is even worse at .162/.244/.229. Tom Murphy is hitting well this year but in a part-time backup role, and midseason trades of catchers can be tricky given the challenges of learning a new pitching staff.

They have one other impending free agent in Teoscar Hernández, which presents a difficult case for the club. He was just acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, with the M’s sending Erik Swanson and Adam Macko to Toronto for Hernández’s final arbitration season. His 2023 performance isn’t quite as rough as Pollock’s or Wong’s, but it’s been a disappointment nonetheless. Through the end of May, he was hitting .230/.268/.396 for a wRC+ of 85. He took off in June, slashing .303/.376/.573 for a 162 wRC+, but he’s crashed back to earth in July with a line of .203/.259/.316.

Overall, Hernández has a season-long batting line of .242/.293/.421. That amounts to a wRC+ of 99, indicating he’s been just a hair below league average. But the Mariners were surely hoping for something better than just average, especially because Hernández slashed .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+.

Defensive metrics have never like Hernández much, but are being kinder in 2023. He has -18 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but +7 this year. Outs Above Average has him at +2 in 2023 but -22 overall. His Ultimate Zone Rating is -18.3 for his career but 3.7 this year. Defensive metrics tend to be fickle from year to year, so it’s more likely this is a blip than that he’s suddenly turned himself into an above-average defender in his age-30 season. But he definitely has a bit of speed, having swiped 40 bags in his career and five this year.

If Hernández were playing up to his previous form, he would be a lock to both receive and reject a qualifying offer. In that case, the Mariners could have simply held onto him and taken their shot at contention, at least knowing that they could recoup a draft pick if he were to sign somewhere else. Now it’s less clear, since he’s performing closer to an average major leaguer. He might be tempted to take a QO and try to re-enter free agency after a stronger platform in 2024.

Spending roughly $20MM, which is where the QO will likely end up, on a player like Hernández wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster for the Mariners. Pollock and Wong departing will take $17MM off the books, and Hernández himself is making $14MM this year. But they will also see Castillo’s salary jump from $10MM this year (plus a $7MM signing bonus) to $22.75MM next year. Rodríguez will see his salary climb from $4MM to $10MM. Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Dylan Moore and Andrés Muñoz will also get raises in their contracts, and arbitration raises will be due to players like France and Paul Sewald.

Like just about every club, the Mariners will be hoping to keep their options open for Shohei Ohtani this winter, not to mention all the other potential free agents. Perhaps the prospect of putting close to $20MM in front of Hernández on day one of the offseason isn’t as attractive as it once seemed a few months ago.

But despite his middling season, he might still have significant trade appeal. The lists of upcoming free agents and potential trade candidates are both heavy on pitching, with few impact bats thought to be available. Perhaps some clubs around the league believe in Hernández enough to bet on a bounceback, especially with the dearth of other available options. His walk rate and hard hit rate are both down this year, but his rate of fly balls turning into home runs is also a big drop, sitting at 16.2% this year compared to 23.2% in the previous three seasons. Maybe moving away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park would help him get back on track.

Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s likely a tricky decision for Dipoto and his team. If they decide that 2023 isn’t their year, then trading him is probably the best thing to do since he’s an impending free agent and can’t help you next year. If he were to accept a qualifying offer, they’d essentially be back to square one but with a larger financial commitment for 2024. If there’s a compelling offer on the table now, perhaps it’s better to just take that and start focusing on next year’s club.

On the other hand, they are already working with an uninspiring offense. The Mariners’ collective batting line of .231/.311/.391 amounts to a wRC+ of 100, or exactly average. The corner outfield spots are a particular issue, given the struggles of both Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. The latter of those two cooled off after a hot start and recently put himself out of action for the next four to six weeks by kicking a water cooler and breaking a bone in his foot.

Subtracting Hernández from the corner outfield mix would only make matters worse, and the Mariners would then be looking to replace him in right field while facing the same weak market as every other club in the league. Although the club made the postseason last year, that’s still just one playoff appearance since 2001. If they were to hold Hernández and he gets hot for the final months of the season, he could help them compete and perhaps even get enough juice to reject a qualifying offer and net the club an extra draft pick.

Trading Hernández also comes with the risk of intangible results, in a negative way. Teams have often tried to balance buying and selling and been surprised by the effect it had on the clubhouse. The Brewers trading Josh Hader last year was one such example, but the same thing happened to the Mariners the year before. They traded closer Kendall Graveman and reliever Rafael Montero to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith. They later backfilled their closer spot by acquiring Diego Castillo, hoping that the Castillo/Toro combination would be better than Graveman himself. But it didn’t work out and the club missed the playoffs as the Graveman trade had a negative impact on the club’s spirits, something Dipoto addressed in the link above.

Perhaps trading Hernández would hurt the club both on the field and in the dugout. The Mariners likely wouldn’t care so much about that if they were well out of contention and firmly in the seller camp. But if they are trying to strike a balance between buying and selling, the downside of the trade is higher than the upside, though that would surely depend on the offers. The Hader trade certainly hurt the Brewers last year but they were later able to trade one of the pieces in that deal, Esteury Ruiz, for catcher William Contreras. He’s having an excellent season and seems to be a long-term piece for Milwaukee, who are in first place in the National League Central.

We’ll open this one up for debate among MLBTR readers. Should the Mariners risk punting their season by sending Hernández elsewhere and taking whatever pieces they can get to help them in future seasons? Or, should they hold and hope for a late surge to get back in the race and cement his status as a QO recipient? Have your say in the poll below!

(Link to poll for app users)

Poll: What Should The White Sox Do With Tim Anderson?

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The White Sox seem to be gradually accepting that this isn’t their year. A miserable 8-21 start in March and April put them in a bad spot out of the gate. They managed to stay afloat by going 15-14 in May and then 13-13 in June, keeping them near contention in a weak American League Central division. But they slid a bit further recently, going 2-6 in July prior to the All-Star break. Their overall record of 38-54 has them eight games back in the division and even further back in the Wild Card race.

As of about a month ago, it was reported that they were hoping to limit their upcoming summer sell-off to just rental players. But reporting from yesterday indicates they have widened that stance, now willing to trade just about anyone on the roster apart from Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jiménez.

One of the more interesting trade candidates they will have to consider is shortstop Tim Anderson. The extension he signed with the club back in 2017 was guaranteed through 2022 with a pair of club options. The Sox triggered the 2023 option and still have the potential to do so again for 2024.

The decision to trigger the first option was an easy one, as Anderson had emerged as a solid above-average regular for the club over the course of his deal. He was a solid speed-and-defense player in the first couple of years but subpar at the plate. He took a huge step forward in 2019 and maintained it in the years to come. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .318/.347/.473 for a wRC+ of 123, indicating he was 23% above league average. When combined with his baserunning and glovework, he was able to produce 13.6 wins above replacement in 374 games, according to the calculations of FanGraphs.

At the end of last season, the Sox had to decide between triggering a $12.5MM option for 2023 or buying him out for $1MM. With many premier shortstops earning north of $30MM annually, that price point made Anderson a bargain. Unfortunately, this year has been a nightmare for him. He’s yet to hit a home run this season and is batting .223/.259/.263 overall for a wRC+ of just 43, the worst production in the majors among players with at least 250 plate appearances. The advanced defensive metrics also consider him to be below average this year. Those metrics can be fickle on a year-to-year basis but this would be the second straight season they have all had him in the negative range.

On the offensive side of things, if one wanted to look for signs of hope, there are things to squint at. Anderson’s Statcast numbers aren’t drastically different from previous seasons. His average exit velocity of 88.3 mph is in the same range as where he’s been in recent years and is even above his career average of 87.5. His 109.6 mph max exit velo and 40.9% hard hit rate are similar to other seasons as well. His sprint feet of 27.2 feet per second is about a foot shy of his norms, but that’s not too shocking given that he missed about three weeks with a left knee sprain.

What seems to be a real factor is launch angle, which is averaging 0.5 degrees this year, well below his career average of 6.6. His 65.1% ground ball rate is well above the 42.5% league average. Anderson has always had above-average grounder rates but was at 52% for his career coming into this campaign. All of that would perhaps explain why he doesn’t have a home run and why his .284 batting average on balls in play is so far beneath the .376 mark he had during his strong 2019-2022 stretch.

Perhaps Anderson can produce better results going forward just by pounding the ball into the dirt less often. Regardless, the Sox have a few weeks to decide between a few different paths. One is to trade Anderson, which they are apparently open to doing, since he wasn’t listed as one of the players that are off-limits. However, doing so would mean selling when his value is at an extremely low ebb, given his awful results so far this year.

It’s possible that some clubs are willing to overlook the rough season and take a shot on him. The upcoming free agent class is very light on position players, meaning the crop of available trade candidates is likely to be similar. There are several contenders who could use middle infield reinforcements, such as the Giants, Marlins, Angels, Dodgers and Brewers. Those clubs may not have too many options for lining up on trades. The Cardinals will likely listen to offers on Paul DeJong, but he has his own issues with inconsistency and is no guarantee to be moved with a couple of club options remaining. Teams like the Orioles and Guardians have many infield prospects and could be open trading from their respective surpluses, but they would likely be looking to part with the players who aren’t helping them right now.

Perhaps that leads to someone making the Sox an intriguing offer, but it will undoubtedly be less than what they could have gotten in the past or could potentially get in the future. The other path would be to hang onto Anderson and hope he finishes strong enough for them to justify triggering his $14MM option for 2024 instead of the $1MM buyout. If he’s able to return to his previous level of performance, that would still be good value.

If Anderson were indeed able to get back to being a solid everyday player, he could perhaps help the club have better outcomes next year. Even if the club stayed on the outside of a playoff race, he could increase his trade value relative to where it is today. But the risk would be in hanging onto him and spending $13MM on another disappointing season. There’s also the injury question to consider, as various ailments have prevented Anderson from tallying 125 games in any individual season since 2018. He’s since battled a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger and this year’s left knee sprain.

The third path would be to sign Anderson to an extension, something he openly pined for back in February. No deal has come together up until this point and Anderson’s leverage has surely dropped dramatically since then, when he said there would be “no discounts” and that he wanted to be “treated fair.” It’s unknown if the Sox ever had any formal negotiations with Anderson’s camp, but any offers they may have made at that point would undoubtedly be dropped if talks resumed. If the club believed in Anderson’s ability to get back on track, perhaps they would try to buy low and get him to agree to a lengthier pact, though doing so would essentially carry the same risks as simply triggering his 2024 option, only more so.

Each path comes with its own upsides and downsides, depending on what the future holds. Holding onto him for 2024 or longer is the smart thing if he bounces back but the wrong move if he doesn’t, while the inverse is true of the trading path. What do you think is the right choice? Have your say in the poll below. (Link to poll for app users)

Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?

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The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.

The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.

  • Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
  • Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.

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  • Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
  • Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.

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  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
  • Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.

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  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.

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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)

And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Should San Diego Approach The Trade Deadline?

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When Padres team chairman Peter Seidler recently discussed his vision for the club ahead of the coming trade deadline, he made clear he believed in the current iteration of the club and seemed to have no desire to sell at the trade deadline. That confidence comes in spite of an ugly first half of the 2023 season. In 88 games so far this season, the Padres have gone just 41-47, leaving them ten games back looking up at three teams in the NL West. The club’s Wild Card outlook isn’t much better, as San Diego is 8.5 games back with five teams standing between them and the final Wild Card spot

Of course, club ownership rarely directly makes baseball operations decisions. Given that, the decision on whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline in three weeks will likely be made by Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. A notoriously aggressive GM, Preller has built a star-studded roster with a massive payroll in recent years. Since the end of the 2020 campaign, when San Diego first made the playoffs under Preller, the club has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto in blockbuster trades while signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal and signing each of Darvish, Musgrove, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. to big money extensions.

To reverse course completely would be near impossible. Musgrove and right-hander Robert Suarez are both signed through the 2027 campaign, while Darvish is signed through 2028. Infielder Jake Cronenworth is signed through the 2030 season, Machado and Bogaerts are both signed through 2033, while Tatis is signed through the end of the 2034 campaign. Between those seven players, the Padres are on the hook for roughly $107.5MM in terms of actual dollars and just over $137MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. With so many big money contracts on the books not just for next season, but for the better part of the decade or longer, trading long-term assets seems both unwise and difficult.

Given the club’s position, it’s possible that the front office will decide to double down and hope the team’s performance will improve in the second half. Suarez has yet to pitch this season and could help stabilize the bullpen upon his return, while each of Darvish, Machado, and Bogaerts are multi-time All Stars with lengthy track records of success; it’s surely not hard for Preller’s front office to talk themselves into that group improving upon their current 2023 performance going forward. With plenty of talent on the roster and glaring holes behind the plate, at DH, and on the bench, San Diego could retain their key players and deal for moderate upgrades to the weakest areas on the roster in hopes of things improving during the season’s final two months.

On the other hand, the club could look to retool for the future. Snell and Hader would immediately be among the most coveted rental arms on the market if the Padres listened on the pair, while Seth Lugo would surely interest a variety of contenders given his ability to swing in and out of the rotation. Lightly selling would allow the Padres to recoup value on their pending free agents and bolster a farm system that’s been raided by years of aggressive buy-side deals. What’s more, it would allow San Diego to take advantage of a trade market with few clearly established sellers.

Of course, the club could opt to take a middle ground option as well, dealing some of their pending free agents while also adding big league pieces with multiple years of control in hopes of giving themselves a chance to bounce back during the second half while attempting to maximize the club’s odds of winning in 2024, Soto’s last year of team control. Such an approach comes with its own unique risks, however. Dealing away key players can have impacts in the clubhouse, as the Brewers saw when dealing Hader to San Diego last year and Seattle saw after trading closer Kendall Graveman in 2021.

With just three weeks left until the trade deadline, the Padres will be forced to make a decision in the near future. How should San Diego approach this trade deadline? Do they need to stay the course and give themselves the best chance to win while Soto is under team control? Should they try to rebuild their farm system and look toward 2024 and beyond? Or perhaps they should try to do a bit of both?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Yankees’ Third Base Situation

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The Yankees put up a three spot in the bottom of the eighth this afternoon, pulling out a comeback series win over the AL West-leading Rangers. It was a solid weekend that puts New York at 43-35 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League.

Despite taking two out of three from Texas, the Yanks didn’t do much to quiet concern about their offense. New York scored a combined eight runs and hasn’t topped five runs in a game in nearly two weeks. With Aaron Judge still facing an uncertain timeline after tearing a ligament in his right big toe, the Yankees are trying to find more punch in the lineup.

The offense is struggling essentially 1-9. No team has scored fewer runs since Judge’s last appearance on June 3. Among the biggest problem areas: third base, where the Yankees have gotten a .111/.164/.317 line (not including today’s game) since Judge’s IL stint and a .189/.260/.351 showing on the season overall.

As recently as a few weeks ago, Yankee brass could’ve reasonably attributed that brutal production to injury. Josh Donaldson had an underwhelming first season in the Bronx, but his .222/.308/.374 slash last year was still markedly better than the production they’ve gotten out of the position this season. Donaldson had been limited to five games before suffering a hamstring strain that kept him out of action until June 1. Manager Aaron Boone indicated in late May the Yankees would plug Donaldson back into the everyday lineup upon his return.

They mostly did so, starting him at third or designated hitter for 13 of their first 17 games this month. Donaldson returned from injury with a huge slump, hitting only .128/.208/.447 in 53 plate appearances. An .033 batting average on balls in play obviously isn’t doing him any favors, but he has hit almost no line drives as he tries to get back into form.

Considering those struggles, Donaldson’s status as a regular is now in question. He wasn’t in the lineup for any of the three games against Texas. DJ LeMahieu took a pair of third base starts, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa got the nod in the other contest. Boone stopped short of declaring it a benching, at least publicly. “He’s going to (get consistent playing time),” the skipper told reporters after today’s game (link via Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). “This is just a stretch where I felt like I wanted to give him a couple of days to kind of work through. That was just kind of my decision on that through this little stretch, but I expect him to get consistent at-bats.”

How consistently the former MVP will find himself in the lineup remains to be seen, though the Yankees haven’t had any alternatives forcing their way into the mix. LeMahieu is having his worst year since landing in the Bronx, hitting .230/.286/.387 through 255 trips to the plate. Kiner-Falefa has been spending more time in the outfield this year; he’s not hitting any better than LeMahieu, posting a .239/.275/.358 line. Oswaldo Cabrera has been even worse and has bounced on and off the active roster a few times of late.

Aside from the rest of the primary starters — Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe — the only other infielder on the 40-man roster is Oswald Peraza. The top prospect impressed in a late-season cup of coffee last year but struggled in his limited MLB time in 2023. He’s having an excellent year in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, raking at a .292/.360/.563 clip with 11 homers and steals apiece in 34 games. He’s not walking much but has kept his strikeouts to a tidy 14.9% rate.

Peraza hasn’t played in a week with an undisclosed injury. Conor Foley of the Scranton Times-Tribune reported (on Twitter) yesterday that it’s a minor ailment and Peraza is expected back in the lineup before long. He’s only made seven starts at third base between the majors and Triple-A, but as a well-regarded defensive shortstop, he shouldn’t have much issue handling the hot corner.

One could also make a case for the Yankees to turn to Peraza over Volpe at shortstop. Boone, owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have all remained steadfast in their support for Volpe in spite of his tough rookie season. Perhaps third base represents a cleaner path for the 23-year-old Peraza, though there’d be risk in counting on rookies at both left side infield spots.

There’s also the possibility of adding an upgrade from outside the organization. Trade activity doesn’t typically kick off in earnest until mid-late July. The Angels jumped the market for a pair of stopgap veteran infielders over the past few days, so it’s not an impossible task. There aren’t a ton of clear targets for infield-needy teams, however.

Jeimer Candelario is the only impending free agent third baseman who’s performing well on a noncompetitive team. The rental market is similarly bleak at shortstop and second base, so there aren’t any obvious candidates for a post-acquisition position change. Unless the Rockies surprisingly listen to offers on Ryan McMahon this summer, there probably won’t be any marquee trade possibilities at the position.

Where does that leave the front office and coaching staff? Who should get the bulk of the third base playing time at Yankee Stadium?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

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The Braves have opened their 2023 season facing a great deal of uncertainty in the rotation. The club went into camp with a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, expecting Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, and Michael Soroka to be the favorites for the role. That didn’t come to pass, however, as Soroka was slowed early in camp while both Anderson and Elder struggled, opening the door for Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd to elevate themselves on the organizational depth chart with strong springs. MLBTR held a poll toward the end of Spring Training regarding which of the two young lefties should start the regular season in the rotation, which Shuster won with 68.56% of the vote.

Ultimately, the Braves were never forced to make a decision between Dodd and Shuster for the fifth spot, as Kyle Wright began the season on the injured list, allowing both lefties to open the season in the rotation. Since that time, the rotation picture in Atlanta has gotten far more hectic. Club ace Max Fried went on the injured list with a hamstring injury, while Anderson went on the IL in the minors due to elbow issues, leaving Elder to join the rotation in Fried’s stead. Meanwhile, both Shuster and Dodd have struggled to open the season.

With Wright expected to make his first start of the season on Tuesday and Fried expected to miss roughly the fifteen day minimum, the Braves find themselves once again forced to make a decision on who their fifth starter should be once the front four of Fried, Wright, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton are all healthy and starting every fifth day. With Soroka still not fully ramped up, it appears the options for the club’s fifth rotation spot are Dodd, Shuster, and Elder, each of whom have made at least one start for the club this season.

Shuster appears to be the least likely of the three options. The 24-year old lefty has made two starts for Atlanta so far this season, but has struggled in both. In his major league debut, Shuster allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Nationals, allowing six hits and 5 walks while striking out just one. His second start was worryingly similar to his first, albeit against a much more threatening Padres team than the lowly Nats: four runs in four innings of work on six hits with four walks and four strikeouts.

While Shuster impressed with a 1.74 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of work this spring, he’s appeared over-matched two starts into his big league career, and it seems safe to assume that the Braves will allow him time in Triple-A to right the ship before returning him to the big league rotation, barring further injuries to the big league club.

Dodd has a stronger case for a longer leash in the rotation than Shuster, having impressed in his MLB debut by holding a loaded Cardinals lineup to just one run over five innings of work, striking out three while walking none. Dodd’s first start of the season showed the same promise as his spring performance, where he posted a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings of work, striking out 20 while walking just four. Unfortunately, Dodd’s second start was not as successful as his first, as he struggled badly in 4 1/3 innings against the Padres, allowing seven runs on ten hits (two home runs) and a walk while striking out three.

After such a difficult second start, it’s reasonable to wonder if Dodd might also benefit from additional time in Triple-A before becoming a mainstay in the Braves’ rotation. After all, the 24-year old has made just one start in Triple-A, with only 53 innings of experience above High-A in the minor leagues.

That lack of experience seems likely to open the door for Elder as the most likely option to stick in Atlanta as a member of the rotation once Fried returns from the injured list. Though Elder struggled badly in Spring Training surrendering three home runs and five walks in just 11 2/3 innings of work, he dominated the Cardinals for six innings in his first start of the season on Wednesday, allowing no runs on two hits while striking out six over six innings of work. Though his spring problems with the free pass carried over into the regular season as he walked three in his season debut, Elder was able to find success in the big leagues last year in spite of a 10.1% walk rate, posting a 3.17 ERA in 54 innings of work last season.

With Fried set to miss at least another week of action, both Dodd and Elder figure to get at least one more start before the Braves make a decision, to say nothing of the possibility that an injury elsewhere in the rotation or a setback for Fried could delay the decision even further. Barring those outcomes, who should the Braves keep in the rotation going forward? Is Elder’s experience and past success in the big leagues too valuable to pass up, or should the Braves stick with their initial decision and give the fifth spot in the rotation to one of Dodd or Shuster?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Angels’ Sixth Starter

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The Angels have run six-man rotations in recent seasons. They’re expected to do the same this year, although manager Phil Nevin has already indicated the club will be a little less rigid than in prior years to try to get more innings for their top arms.

The Halos had an off day on the second day of the season, mitigating the need for a sixth starter the first time through. They had an extra day to get a second start from Shohei Ohtani yesterday before settling on a sixth starter.

After today’s scheduled off day, the Angels play on six consecutive days. Sam Blum of the Athletic tweets the Angels are likely to turn to their sixth starter for their April 12 matchup with the Nationals. It remains unclear whom Nevin will give the first crack to assume that role behind Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson and José Suarez.

The most likely candidates appear to be left-hander Tucker Davidson and righty Griffin Canning. Davidson, acquired in last summer’s Raisel Iglesias trade with Atlanta, is out of minor league option years. He has to stick on the MLB roster in some capacity if the Halos don’t want to chance losing him. They could deploy him out of the bullpen, where he made his only appearance of the season on April 1. Davidson tossed four innings of mop-up work to finish off a blowout win in Oakland. That was only his second relief appearance at the MLB level, as he’s started 16 of 18 big league games.

Davidson threw 52 innings between Atlanta and Anaheim last season. He was tagged for a 6.75 ERA, walking 14.4% of opponents while striking out 13.7% of batters faced. That kind of production obviously isn’t sufficient but the Halos have kept him on the 40-man roster, clearly believing he’s capable of taking a step forward. Davidson had been solid over 15 Triple-A starts last year, with an above-average 27.8% strikeout rate and solid 7% walk percentage more encouraging than his 4.59 ERA there lets on.

Canning is currently on the 15-day injured list. He opened the season on the shelf with a groin strain, but the issue seems exceedingly minor. The UCLA product made a rehab start for Low-A Inland Empire this evening, working five innings and 92 pitches. Assuming he responds well in the next few days, it seems he’s on track for a quick reinstatement. Canning is first eligible to return on April 12, so his timetable could align with the Angels’ first need for a sixth starter.

If he got the nod, it’d be his first big league outing since July 2021. Canning has lost the past year and a half to back injuries. One of the organization’s more promising pitching prospects a few seasons ago, he looked like a possible mid-rotation arm when he worked to a 3.99 ERA over 11 starts during the shortened season. Canning surrendered a 5.60 ERA through his first 14 outings in 2021 before the back issues that cost him more than 18 months. He has 209 1/3 MLB innings under his belt, almost all of them as a starter. Unlike Davidson, Canning can still be optioned for another season.

While Davidson and Canning seem the top candidates for sixth starter work, they’re not the only options. Righty Jaime Barria indicated in Spring Training he had his sights set on the job. Barria had worked almost exclusively in long relief in 2022, throwing 79 1/3 innings across 35 appearances. He posted a 2.61 ERA out of the bullpen but without huge strikeout or ground-ball numbers.

Barria had primarily been a starter before last season, working to a 4.49 ERA built on solid control. Like Davidson, Barria has made one appearance out of the bullpen this season. He tallied 3 2/3 frames of low-leverage work in a blowout loss to Seattle on Tuesday. He’s also out of options and has to stick in the majors in some capacity.

Chase Silseth is also on the 40-man roster and started seven games as a rookie last year. The right-hander showed intriguing velocity but was hit hard in his initial MLB look. He started the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake. Kenny Rosenberg and Jhonathan Diaz also got brief rotation showings last season, though neither occupies a spot on the 40-man at this point. It’s unlikely any of that group is in consideration for MLB starts this early in the year.

Who should get the first crack for the Angels when they turn to a sixth starter?

(poll link for app users)

 

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