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How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

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23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season.  It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier.  The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season.  Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.”  Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier.  $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory.  Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance.  This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season.  How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month.  That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period.  In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added.  But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous.  Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks.  Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier.  We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots.   In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins.  Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

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Poll: What Do You Make Of Service Time?

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Last week we explored a poll covering December transactions from the year 2016, the ramifications of which Nationals, White Sox, and Yankees fans are all feeling to this day. This article’s look-back will touch on another poll from the archives and focus on a topic that affects the league at large: service time regulations.

Service time is one of the more universal components of major league baseball— if a player is on a team’s active roster during the regular season, he’s going to accrue service time. How quickly a player accrues service time affects their career earnings, both through the arbitration process and how quickly they’re compensated in free agency. For teams, service time signals how long they have control of a non-market value (read: very affordable) player, is a major component in assessing trade value, and is closely monitored to maximize a team’s perceived competitive window.

Because the accumulation of service time affects player compensation and a team’s roster construction, it’s not much of a surprise that editing the existing service time structure has been a hot-button issue in the ongoing CBA saga. MLBTR broke down what each negotiating party looked to change with the current service time structure here, but the general attitude of each side can be described as this: the MLBPA wants its players to reach active rosters and free agency as soon as possible, while the league has proposed to rework the system but generally has little urgency to shake up a longstanding way of doing business.

Any changes to the existing service time structure will be tricky, and may require concessions from the benefitting party elsewhere in CBA negotiations. That said, barring a massive overhaul in the way players reach free agency it’s likely that a new system will be just as exploitable as the current iteration.

Teams have always looked to keep their brightest young players under team control for as long and cost-effectively as they can, and it’s unlikely they’ll budge to a structure that will make that mission much harder. Baseball fans meanwhile, will of course want their teams to act logically under any system that’s set in place— more than 73% of voters in a 2018 site poll indicated baseball’s service time structure was tolerable, even if they didn’t think it was fair to players.

Anecdotally, a majority of sampled fans feel that keeping a Kris Bryant-type prospect in the minor leagues for a few weeks in April is okay if it leads to another year of team control. The exceedingly rare instances where that type of player cracks an Opening Day roster, as was the case with the immediately-impactful Fernando Tatis Jr., are welcome breaks from service time considerations and generate buzz, but can seem regrettable if a top player departs a team six years down the road instead of an easily-attainable seven.

With the league preparing its next round of economic proposals, the service time structure as we know it may soon look a bit different. If that proves to be the case and the current structure is modified, it’s possible a deal can be reached that feels workable for teams and more inherently fair to players. That said, there’s no guarantee any changes will be made to service time structure when several other key issues remain on the table. To the fans, at a time when change may be on the horizon, we’ll ask again: how do you feel about MLB’s service time rules?

MLBTR Poll: Trevor Story’s Contract

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Earlier this week, we took a look at which teams seemed like the best suitors for Trevor Story once the transactions freeze concludes. Today, we’ll focus on what kind of contract Story can expect to land.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked the former Rockies star as the game’s #8 free agent. During those deliberations, Story proved one of the tougher players to value. While Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and myself ultimately landed on a six-year, $126MM projected contract, there were few players with a wider range of possibilities.

That’s largely because Story hit the market coming off his worst offensive showing in four years. He was a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter between 2018-20, though, and that 2021 downturn was attributable mostly to a poor first half. Story got off to a tough start to the year, including a few weeks on the injured list owing to right elbow inflammation. Yet over the season’s final couple months, his offensive production landed right in line with peak levels.

As is the case with essentially all Rockies hitters, Story produced far better at home than he did on the road. A signing team can expect his road performance to improve once he leaves Colorado, though, since there’s been a fair bit of research suggesting Rockies hitters are adversely disadvantaged on the road — likely due to pitches moving slightly differently at sea level than they do at altitude. It’s perhaps more alarming that Story’s numbers against right-handed pitching have tailed off a bit over the past couple seasons.

He’s a similarly tricky player to value defensively. Public metrics are split on his work. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged Story as an excellent shortstop every year of his career. Statcast’s Outs Above Average was quite bearish on his 2021 performance. There’s little concern about his range, but he has had some issues with throwing errors — to the point that some scouts reportedly believe Story’s a better fit at second base than shortstop.

Projecting Story’s long-term performance is tricky enough, but his market’s influenced by the stacked free agent class of middle infielders. Story wasn’t going to compete with Carlos Correa or Corey Seager at the top of the class. He’s almost two years older than both players and coming off less impressive years. Yet slotting him in among the remaining star free agent shortstops was more challenging.

Ultimately, we placed Story between Marcus Semien and Javier Báez in projected earning power. Semien was projected for a six-year, $138MM deal; Báez landed a five-year, $100MM estimate. Both of those players have already signed, and they each surpassed those expectations. The Rangers landed Semien for $175MM over seven years; Báez got six years and $140MM from the Tigers. Is that an indication that Story could also be looking at a loftier than anticipated deal?

What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Story’s eventual guarantee wind up?

(poll link for app users)

 

Which Teams Are The Best Fits For Trevor Story?

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Trevor Story is one of two star free agent shortstops remaining on the market. To some extent, he’s in a second tier of his own at this point. Carlos Correa is the clear prize of the class. He’s two years younger than Story with more upside on both sides of the ball, and there’ll be a fairly significant gap in each player’s respective contract reflecting that.

Yet Story should be in high demand in his own right. Only one team can land Correa, and many may not want to entertain an asking price that could approach or top the $325MM Corey Seager landed from the Rangers. Story’s the only other shortstop still on the market who’s likely to offer above-average production for the next few seasons.

Let’s take a look at some potential suitors and try to peg Story’s likeliest landing spot. A few clubs are such longshots they only warrant cursory mention. The Orioles, Pirates and D-Backs aren’t in the kind of competitive window that suggests they’d make this kind of splash. The A’s and Reds are far likelier to cut payroll than make a nine-figure investment. The Rays, Brewers and Royals don’t typically spend at this level and have an abundance of infielders anyways. The Rangers have already signed both Seager and Marcus Semien in the middle infield and have Josh Jung approaching at third base.

Which teams make more sense?

Clubs With Infield Opportunity And Known Interest

  • Mariners — Jon Heyman of the MLB Network indicated prior to the lockout that the Mariners had put an offer on the table to Story. Seattle’s known to be pursuing infielders, and while they could roll with a group of Ty France, Adam Frazier, J.P. Crawford and Abraham Toro, adding Story would be a nice boost on both sides of the ball. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been adamant about keeping Crawford at shortstop, but if Story’s amenable, he could slide to second base and push Frazier and/or Toro into roving utility roles.
  • Astros — The Astros are facing Correa’s potential departure and have Aledmys Díaz as their top in-house option at shortstop. Top prospect Jeremy Peña isn’t far off big league readiness, but Houston’s a win-now club without many vacancies on the roster. Aside from perhaps left-handed relief, shortstop is the only real question mark. Signing Story would reaffirm their position as one of the best teams in the sport, and Heyman reported they’ve shown some interest.
  • Red Sox — Heyman also reported the Red Sox had expressed interest with Story’s camp. Xander Bogaerts is a star, but he can opt out of his current contract after next season. Boston also has some uncertainty at second base, and either of Story or Bogaerts could slide to the other side of the diamond. As with Houston, this is a big-market team that wasn’t far from a championship last year.

Solid Speculative Fits

  • Angels — The Angels in-house shortstop options (Tyler Wade, Luis Rengifo, Jack Mayfield and Andrew Velazquez) aren’t enough for a hopeful contender. Los Angeles already has a few long-term investments for position players on the books, and they may still want to add another arm or two on the pitching staff. Locking in some certainty in the middle infield is a necessity, though, and Story fits the bill.
  • Blue Jays — The Jays have Bo Bichette at shortstop, but they’re facing some questions at both second and third base. They signed Semien to move off shortstop last winter; might they consider a similar tack with Story? There seems to be some payroll flexibility with which to work, as Toronto made a run at Seager before he landed in Texas.
  • Cardinals — The Cardinals could try to upgrade over the Paul DeJong/Edmundo Sosa pairing at shortstop. That’s particularly true if DeJong ends up traded. To this point in the winter, though, there hasn’t been much indication that’s a priority for St. Louis. The Cardinals seem more interested in upgrading the bullpen and perhaps adding to the DH mix.
  • Cubs — The Cubs have been tied to Correa for much of the winter. They’re reportedly loath to commit to a decade-long deal, and Story could make sense as a fallback. The Cubs have taken a step back recently, and perhaps they view Correa as a unique player worth spending for. Would they pivot to Story or be content to ride things out with their internal options?
  • Dodgers — The Dodgers lost Seager and haven’t done much to replace him this winter. The Trea Turner acquisition at last summer’s deadline could be the necessary shortstop replacement, with Chris Taylor/Gavin Lux/Max Muncy logging action at second base. Los Angeles has been tied to Correa, though, suggesting they’re open to a star shortstop.
  • Phillies — The Phillies have question marks in both positions on the right side of the infield. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has already told incumbent Didi Gregorius he’s not assured of keeping the shortstop job. Story’s a great fit on paper, particularly given the team’s desire to upgrade defensively. The question: will they want to commit huge resources at shortstop with question marks at third base, the bullpen and two outfield spots?
  • Twins — The Twins are trying to immediately rebound from a disastrous 2021 season. They essentially don’t have a starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco had a very good season offensively after moving from shortstop to second base. He could theoretically move back to short, with Luis Arráez stepping in at second. Yet that’s a suboptimal defensive group. Adding a shortstop makes sense, but Minnesota might prefer to allocate their resources to a rotation that has at least two vacancies.
  • White Sox — The White Sox have a question mark at second base. That was the case at the trade deadline too, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported at the time they considered a deal for Story. Nothing materialized, but it stands to reason they’d have some interest in a run at him now that he’s a free agent. The potential hold-up, as with a few other teams, is finances. Chicago’s already at a projected franchise record in terms of player spending.
  • Yankees — The Yankees entered the offseason with such a glaring need at shortstop that general manager Brian Cashman frankly stated they “have to address” the position. So far, they haven’t. Correa and Story are their last hopes at making an impact add via free agency, but various reports throughout the winter suggested they might look for lower-cost stopgap options with top prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe not far off big league readiness. Would the Yankees pivot to sign a higher-impact player like Story once the new CBA is in place and they have a clearer picture of the luxury tax landscape?

Longer Shots

  • Giants — The Giants have a ton of payroll space, but reports have suggested they’d prefer to spread their resources around rather than commit to a star free agent. Brandon Crawford is already locked in at shortstop. San Francisco could turn to Story as an upgrade over Tommy La Stella at second base, but the outfield and pitching staff seem like cleaner fits if they do reverse course and make a big splash.
  • Guardians — The Guardians have never gone beyond a $60MM guarantee on a single player. There’s essentially no long-term commitments on the books and Cleveland could add at shortstop and push Amed Rosario into the outfield, but it’s unlikely unless Story’s market unexpectedly craters.
  • Marlins — The Marlins are trying to add to the offense, but Story’s probably out of their price range. With Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Miguel Rojas in the middle infield, the outfield seems like a bigger priority anyways.
  • Nationals — The Nationals have long-term payroll space and an obvious need at shortstop. They could sign Story with an eye towards locking in some certainty for 2023 and beyond, but that kind of splash doesn’t seem to be in the cards this offseason.
  • Rockies — Story’s former club has expressed interest in bringing him back. There’s no indication they’ve kept in contact through the offseason, though. Story has expressed some frustration with the organization’s management in the past, and it’d be a real surprise if he ends up returning.
  • Tigers — The Tigers have been active this winter and could still try to upgrade at second base. After signing Javier Báez to a six-year deal, though, they don’t look likely to be a serious player for Story.

Can Never Rule Them Out, But There Are Probably Other Priorities

  • Braves — The Braves have been quiet thus far, seemingly waiting out a decision from Freddie Freeman. They’ve already got Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley around the infield, so there’s no real need. Yet they’ve been tied to Correa, at least suggesting some openness to adding a shortstop (perhaps then trading Swanson for pitching help).
  • Mets — The Mets went hog-wild after installing their new front office. They’re seemingly in line to shatter whatever CBT thresholds are put in place, and with that kind of financial backing from owner Steve Cohen, it’s impossible to rule them out on anyone entirely. Shortstop’s already accounted for with Francisco Lindor, though, and Jeff McNeil, Robinson Canó, J.D. Davis and newcomer Eduardo Escobar are already on hand as second/third base options. Starting pitching looks to be the bigger priority at this point, particularly since signing Story — who rejected a qualifying offer — would require the forfeiture of the #14 overall pick in next year’s draft.
  • Padres — President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has boldly struck even in the absence of an obvious team need before. But with Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth, there’s already a great infield in place.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where is Story likely to end up after the lockout?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Is Buck Showalter The Right Leader For These Mets?

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Just before Christmas, the Mets made perhaps their biggest decision of the offseason (which is saying a lot) by hiring Buck Showalter as their skipper. The Mets have been the picture of instability in recent seasons, especially when it comes to their management team. From Carlos Beltran’s hiring-and-firing, to the Jared Porter debacle, to the Mickey Callaway debacle, to the Zack Scott debacle, it’s been a comedy of errors for the Mets – and with this one decision, they hope to turn the tide.

Enter Showalter, who not only is a veteran skipper, but he’s well-respected throughout the game. If nothing else, he ought to be able to finish his contact without committing a crime. And yet, that’s not enough for a franchise that’s put together a solid collection of baseball talent. Just ask Luis Rojas. This team wants to win, and if it does, Showalter will big one of the reasons why.

The track record is there, even if Showalter carries the unfortunate distinction of leaving two different stops the year before they won the World Series. Championships are hardly linear, of course. Whether it should be seen as a positive or a negative that the Yankees and Diamondbacks both won titles the year after he left is a debate for another day.

Let’s stick to the facts for a moment: He has a .506 career winning percentage as a manager over 3,069 games. His teams made the playoffs five times in 20 seasons. His best season, by record, was cut short by the strike in 1994. His worst season, by record, was his last, a 115-loss disaster in 2018 with the Orioles.

Mike Puma of the New York Post went through Showalter’s managerial history, looking back on his stops with the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Orioles. Wherever he went, Showalter was hailed as a solid tactician, incredibly intelligent about the game, and a strong communicator with his players. The latter may be the most important for a beleaguered bunch playing under the bright spotlight of New York.

Showalter has some of baseball’s best clubhouse veterans there to help him in Max Scherzer and Francisco Lindor. Along with Jacob deGrom, the Mets have the big names to match big expectations in the big apple. Having begun his career with the Yankees, Showalter knows a little something about what it’s like to play under those conditions.

The concern in hiring Showalter would be that he’s older now, and the last we saw of him in the dugout, he was perceived to be falling behind the times in terms of baseball’s analytics movement. Generalizations are stickier than comprehensive analysis, however, and there’s clearly more to Showalter’s time in Baltimore than just his decision to hold Zack Britton for a potential save that never came in the 2016 playoffs – even if that’s the moment that sticks.

The first test for Showalter is filling out his coaching staff. He appears to have made his first big decision by hiring Joey Cora to coach third base. Cora joins Showalter and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner on the staff. A lot more decisions are yet to come. Per the latest from MLB’s Anthony DiComo, Showalter said of filling out his staff, “There are so many good, qualified people out there. … We’re moving as fast as we can, but we don’t want to make a mistake. These are very precious and important jobs, and there’s got to be a collaboration with it.” 

Limited though our information may be, does the Showalter hire have the Mets on the right track? MLBTR readers, lend us your wisdom: is Showalter the right guy to lead these Mets? Let’s keep this simple for the poll and hash out the details in the comments.

(poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

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Free Agent Faceoff: Catcher Pile

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A lot has happened since MLBTR previewed this winter’s free agent catchers back in September. Several players were cast off of rosters as the season’s final months played out, which added some names to the pile. Some names were removed from the pile as well, as Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Sandy Leon, Pedro Severino, Andrew Knapp and Roberto Perez all put pen to paper in the past few months. That means that an already-thin market is now even thinner, leaving teams with limited avenues for bolstering their catching corps. Trades are always an option, of course. But in terms of free agents, there are only five remaining catchers that played more than 35 games in 2021.

Stephen Vogt, 37, was designated for assignment by Atlanta in October, as the Braves were in the midst of their charge towards becoming World Series champions. It was revealed a few days later that Vogt had undergone sports hernia surgery, which isn’t expected to prevent him from being ready for spring training this year. He played 78 games in 2021, between the Diamondbacks and Braves. Although he has usually received more praise for his offense than his defensive work, he hit just .195/.283/.333, wRC+ of 64 this past season. He also had a rough campaign in 2020, but was productive as recently as 2019, when he hit .263/.314/.490. That amounted to a wRC+ of 106 and 0.9 fWAR in 99 games.

Kurt Suzuki, 38, signed a one-year deal with the Angels for 2021 and played 72 games for them this year. Like Vogt, he’s long been considered more of a bat-first catcher, but he hit only .224/.294/.343 for the Halos, for a wRC+ of 76. However, his wRC+ was over 100 in each of the previous four seasons. From 2017 to 2020, he hit 50 home runs and slashed .272/.337/.475, wRC+ of 111.

Robinson Chirinos, 37, has a similar profile to Vogt and Chirinos, often earning praise for his offensive skills. But unlike them, he’s not coming off a down year at the plate. From 2015 to 2019, he had an excellent five-year run, hitting 71 home runs and slashing .234/.340/.452, for a wRC+ of 109. The shortened 2020 campaign was not kind to him, however, as his line dropped to .162/.232/.243. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2021 but was later signed by the Cubs to a major league deal. He got into 45 games for them and hit .227/.324/.454, wRC+ of 108.

Austin Wynns, 31, has spent his entire career with the Orioles thus far. They selected him in the 10th round of the 2013 draft. He’s played in 115 MLB games across three different seasons. In 2021, he got into 45 games and hit .185/.232/.308. He was outrighted off the roster and elected free agency in October. He’s the youngest of this group but also has the least significant track record at the plate. He does have a strong defensive reputation, however, and less than two years’ service time, meaning he could have years of cheap team control, unless the new CBA changes the service time rules.

Wilson Ramos, 34, split his season between Detroit and Cleveland, getting into 44 games on the year. He hit .205/.248/.397, for a wRC+ of 72. He’s long had a strong defensive reputation, though that has waned as injuries have taken their toll on him over the years. His 2021 season came to an end with an unfortunate injury in August. He isn’t too far removed from a 2019 season that saw him hit .288/.351/.416 for a wRC+ 105, but his health will be the major concern for him now.

Which of these backstops is the best option for teams that want to add some depth behind the plate? Have your say in the poll below.

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MLBTR Poll: Should The D-Backs Trade Ketel Marte?

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There may be no bigger question for the Diamondbacks this winter than whether to trade Ketel Marte. A fourth-place finisher in 2019 NL MVP voting, Marte looked to be emerging as one of the game’s best position players. An average showing in the 2020 truncated schedule registered as a disappointment, but the switch-hitter returned to his 2019 form last year.

Marte hit .318/.377/.532, production that checked in 39 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. Strains of both hamstrings limited him to just more than half of Arizona’s games, as he tallied 374 plate appearances over 90 contests. When healthy, Marte was dynamic, and his relative down year in 2020 now looks like an anomaly. In just under 1,200 plate appearances since the start of 2019, he’s a .318/.374/.543 hitter. His 137 wRC+ in that time ranks 11th among the 159 players with more than 1,000 trips to the plate.

That’s star-level offensive output, and Marte also offers up-the-middle defensive value. He didn’t acclimate well to a move to center field last year, but he’s rated as an average or better gloveman at second base. Some clubs may have reservations about his health after last year’s hamstring issues, but few players around the league can match Marte’s combination of bat-to-ball skills, raw power and athleticism.

In addition to his obvious talent, Marte’s incredibly affordable. He’ll play the 2022 season on a modest $8.4MM salary, and he’s controllable through 2024 via a pair of club options worth a combined $24MM. The Marlins are the only club known to have contacted the D-Backs about Marte this winter, but it stands to reason there are plenty of other teams with interest in a player of this caliber on such a team-friendly contract.

Whether the Diamondbacks would trade Marte is uncertain. They seemed to take him off the market quite early at last summer’s deadline. General manager Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye have both spoken in recent months about a desire to avoid a full rebuild while building the franchise around a few cornerstone players, and Marte no doubt qualifies. Both Hazen and Sawdaye have left the door open a bit, noting that they’re not in position to deem anyone completely untouchable coming off an NL-worst 52-110 season. Yet neither executive sounded enthused about the possibility, and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote last month that it’d take a “monster package” for Arizona to move Marte.

Should the Diamondbacks be willing to entertain a Marte trade? They’re in a division with three of the game’s most talented rosters, and it’s hard to see a path to contention in 2022. The D-Backs could look into another contract extension, but a new Marte deal would be far costlier than the one on which he’s currently playing.

One could make a cogent argument that Arizona should pursue some form of organizational reboot, and no one on the roster would bring back as strong a return in trade as Marte. Yet there’s no certainty any prospect they get back will become a player anywhere near Marte’s caliber, and he should still be in high demand this summer or next offseason if the club hasn’t seen much near-term progress.

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MLBTR Poll: How Should The Yankees Address Shortstop?

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Entering the offseason, there were few more obvious team/need pairings than the Yankees and shortstop. General manager Brian Cashman frankly stated in October the club “(has) to address” the position over the winter. Yet through the offseason’s first few months, the club hasn’t made a meaningful addition.

At the GM Meetings, Cashman said the Yankees had been in contact with the representatives for two free agent shortstops, later reported to be Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. There’s no indication talks with either player progressed, however, and Seager went on to sign with the Rangers. Correa won’t sign until after the lockout, but multiple reports have since indicated the Yankees would prefer a shorter-term option at the position. Highly-regarded prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe aren’t far off MLB readiness, and the Yankees do have to weigh whether splurging on a shortstop could limit their ability to upgrade the rotation and/or hammer out an extension with Aaron Judge.

If that’s actually the case, that’d rule out Correa and probably Trevor Story, the other All-Star shortstop still remaining in free agency. There’s not a whole lot of interest behind that duo. Andrelton Simmons and José Iglesias would be affordable, but that’s a reflection of the seasons off which they’re each coming. Simmons hit .223/.283/.274 over 451 plate appearances with the Twins; Iglesias’ production at the plate was acceptable, but he had an uncharacteristically poor year with the glove.

New York could also look into trade possibilities. They’ve already been tied to Rangers shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who might be displaced by Texas’ pre-lockout spending spree. Other potential trade candidates at the position include Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi. The A’s would probably love to move Elvis Andrus, but that’s a challenging endeavor, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.

The final possibility is to rely on the in-house options. As things currently stand, Gio Urshela would be the presumptive regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres got kicked over to second base late last season, and the Yankees probably wouldn’t want him bouncing back and forth between the two middle infield spots. But someone like non-roster invitee José Peraza could crack the roster in a reserve capacity behind Urshela. That wouldn’t be ideal from a defensive standpoint and certainly isn’t what the Yankees had in mind entering the offseason, but Urshela would likely offer more at the plate than any of the stopgap options mentioned and wouldn’t come at any additional financial or trade cost.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership. If you were in the front office’s shoes, how would you handle the shortstop situation in the Bronx?

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Free Agent Faceoff: Second Base Battle Royale

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For those teams looking to improve at second base, many free agent options have already gone. Marcus Semien went to the Rangers, Javier Baez to the Tigers, Eduardo Escobar to the Mets, Cesar Hernandez to the Nationals and Rougned Odor to the Orioles. Chris Taylor and Leury Garcia returned to their clubs from 2021, the Dodgers and White Sox, respectively. It seems some people in the industry believe Trevor Story should be moved to second base, but it’s unclear if Story himself agrees with that assessment. It’s also possible that another shortstop could be moved to second, such as Jose Iglesias, though he has only 21 games of second base experience in his career thus far and hasn’t matched Story’s offensive production. For teams looking to upgrade at the keystone, who’s still available to be signed after the lockout?

Josh Harrison, 34, had an awful campaign in 2019 but has been solid over the past two seasons. Over 2020 and 2021, he got into 171 games and hit .279/.343/.402. That amounts to a wRC+ of 104 and 1.8 fWAR. Of those 171 games, he played second base in 114 of them, as well as lesser time at third and shortstop, with brief stints at all three outfield spots and even one inning at first base. Statcast doesn’t like his defensive work at those tertiary positions, but he was worth 8 OAA as a second baseman in 2021.

Jed Lowrie, 38 in April, only played nine games over 2019 and 2020 due to injuries. 2021 was a solid bounceback, however, as he played 139 games, hitting .245/.318/.398, for a wRC+ of 100, exactly league average. However, almost half of those games saw Lowrie slotted in at DH or appear as a pinch hitter, as he only played second base in 71 of them, along with three innings at third.

Donovan Solano, 34, is coming off the best three years of his career. From 2019 to 2021, he played 236 games, hitting .308/.354/.435 for a wRC+ of 114. In most of those games, 172, he appeared at second base, while also seeing some limited action at third and short. Statcast pegged his defense at second base as close to average over those three seasons.

Jonathan Villar, 31 in May, has alternated hot and cold in recent years. In 2019, he hit 24 homers, stole 40 bases and slashed .274/.339/.453 for a wRC+ 107 and 3.9 fWAR. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit just two dingers, stole 16 bases and hit .232/.301/.292 for a wRC+ of 65 and -0.3 fWAR. He turned things around again in 2021, with 18 homers, 14 stolen bases and a line of .249/.322/.416, 105 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. He only played nine games at second, as the Mets largely used him at third and short. Statcast wasn’t enamored with his defense in 2021, pegging him at -3 OAA overall.

Matt Duffy, 31 in January, had a rough 2019 and couldn’t crack the big leagues in 2020. Signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 season, he was able to crack the Opening Day roster and stick with the club all season long, except for a two-month stint on the IL. He got into 97 games and hit .287/.357/.381, for a wRC+ of 102 and 1.5 fWAR. He played 56 games at third, 21 at second, five at shortstop, three in left field, two at first base and even logged one third of an inning on the mound. Statcast graded him as being -4 OAA at second base in that small sample.

Matt Carpenter, 36, had a tremendous run from 2012 to 2018, putting up a wRC+ of at least 117 for seven straight seasons. However, it’s been a straight slide downwards since then. He finished 2018 at 140 but dropped to 96, 85 and 70 over the subsequent three campaigns. His strikeout rate also gradually ticked upwards, from 23.3% in 2018 to 26.2%, 28.4% and 30.9% in the three following years. He played 34 games at second base this year and was considered around average by Statcast. There’s no questioning it’s been a rough few years, but if he could get anywhere near his previous peak, he could be an intriguing bounceback candidate.

Each of these players have warts, but none of them should command a huge financial commitment. Villar was the only one to crack MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents, being predicted to get a contract of $14MM over two years. But which one would you prefer? Have your say in the poll below.

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