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Poll: Where Will David Robertson Sign?

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With the calendar now flipped to March, the overwhelming majority of the league’s top free agents have already signed. There are still a handful of stragglers remaining on the market, however, and one of the most notable among those is veteran closer David Robertson.

With his 40th birthday just around the corner, Robertson is still searching for a landing spot ahead of what would be his 17th season in the majors. After a ten-year stretch as a quality late-inning arm for the Yankees and White Sox from 2009 to 2018 where he posted a 2.76 ERA (152 ERA+) with a nearly matching 2.77 FIP, Robertson faded from the spotlight for a few years due to injuries, leading him to pitch in just 19 games total between 2019 and 2021. While many veterans who miss the majority of three consecutive seasons due to injury in their mid-30s either retire or fail to re-establish themselves in the majors, Robertson picked right back up where he left off after signing with the Cubs in 2022.

Since then, Robertson’s played for five different teams across three seasons and found plenty of success. The righty has pitched to a 2.82 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.24 FIP in 201 innings of work with a 31.1% strikeout rate. With 40 saves in that time, Robertson is a capable ninth-inning pitcher who’s shown he’s also comfortable handling a setup role. That role flexibility is somewhat rare for elite veteran arms, and could make Robertson a viable option even for teams with a set closer in the ninth inning. Robertson’s overall profile would suggest that he’s likely to land a deal in line with other quality late-inning veterans like Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, and Jose Leclerc. With that being said, given the late point in the calendar and Robertson’s age, it wouldn’t necessarily be a shock if clubs had some concerns about his ability to get fully up to speed in time for Opening Day on March 27.

In terms of potential suitors, perhaps the most on-paper fit for Robertson’s services is the Diamondbacks. Arizona made no bones about their desire to add a late-inning arm with closing experience throughout the winter, but they’ve been unsuccessful in that pursuit to this point and instead have added middle relief veterans like Kendall Graveman and Shelby Miller as they look to add experienced arms to their relief corps. Robertson would be an immediate and substantial upgrade, but it’s difficult to see a financial fit between the sides given that Robertson is likely in line for a healthy one-year guarantee while the Diamondbacks are already at a franchise record level of spending after an offseason that saw them add star right-hander Corbin Burnes to the rotation. That could lead the club to focus instead on its internal options, a possibility MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.

Plenty of other teams have been connected to Robertson throughout the winter aside from Arizona, though they all come with question marks of their own. The incumbent Rangers added plenty of talent to their bullpen this winter, but lack a proper closer after watching Robertson, Leclerc, and Kirby Yates all depart in free agency this winter. That’s enough to make Robertson a logical fit for the club on paper, but much like Arizona, the club appears to be at or near its budget capacity for the 2025 campaign, which would make adding Robertson to the fold a difficult task.

The Cubs and Tigers were both connected to Robertson at various points throughout the winter, and a return to Chicago in particularly was frequently bandied about in the rumor mill throughout the offseason. Those rumors persisted even after the Cubs added Ryan Pressly to handle the ninth inning, but their subsequent trade with the Dodgers to acquire Ryan Brasier may have put an end to their pursuit of Robertson. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not been connected to Robertson in earnest since signing right-hander Tommy Kahnle, although its worth noting that Kahnle has just eight career saves and that the Tigers were reported to be interested in specifically adding an arm with closing experience to their late-inning mix.

While those are the only teams that have been explicitly connected to Robertson this winter, there’s plenty of other potential suitors for his services. The Red Sox are known to have been in the market earlier this winter for a right-handed reliever who could join Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman in their late-inning mix. The Cardinals are known to covet a veteran right-handed relief arm to replace Kittredge in their bullpen, and the Phillies lost both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this winter while only adding Jordan Romano. If a rebuilding club like the Marlins or White Sox was willing to invest some money into the big league roster, either one could reunite with Robertson in the first half before shopping him at the trade deadline for future talent.

Where do MLBTR readers think Robertson will ultimately land? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who’s The Best Hitter Still Available In Free Agency?

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With the end of February upon us, free agency has mostly been resolved for the offseason with only a handful of clearly big-league caliber free agents remaining. Unlike last year, when Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery were all top-10 free agents in the class who lingered on the open market well beyond the start of Spring Training, this year’s top free agents were almost entirely signed prior to the beginning of camp. At this point, just four of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents remain unsigned: Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, David Robertson, and Spencer Turnbull. Notably, all four of those unsigned players are pitchers.

While that leaves plenty of wiggle room for teams in need of pitching help due to a hole in the roster or a surprise injury to maneuver heading into March, the same can not be said on the hitting side of things. Even extending to the “honorable mentions” section of MLBTR’s list, just one hitter remains available after the Cubs’ recent signing of veteran infielder Justin Turner to a one-year deal. Slim as the pickings may be, however, there are certainly a handful of teams remaining who could use another bat in the lineup at least somewhere on the diamond. For those clubs in need of help on offense, who are the best options still remaining?

J.D. Martinez

The only hitter still available who made the aforementioned “honorable mentions” section of MLBTR’s Top 50, Martinez has an unmatched track record as a hitter but is headed into his age-37 season on the heels of a down season with the Mets. Last year, the veteran slugger managed a slash line of just .235/.320/.406 with a wRC+ of 108. That’s certainly not bad offensive production, but it’s less impressive for a DH-only player and a major step back for a hitter with a career 130 wRC+. Martinez’s strikeout rate (28.5%) and walk rate (9.9%) were both actually better than his 2023 season with the Dodgers, but that improved discipline at the plate came with a severe drop off in power as he hit just 16 homers, less than half of last year’s 33.

Even after last year’s down season, however, Martinez remains a decorated hitter with an excellent track record. He’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past ten 162-game seasons, with a .286/.355/.536 (136 wRC+) slash line overall since the start of 2014. Even last year’s down production was comparable or better than a number of bat-first players around the league who enter 2025 with starting jobs, such as Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, and Rhys Hoskins. Perhaps most importantly, it’s worth noting that Martinez substantially under-performed his expected numbers last year, and his .351 xwOBA was actually slightly higher than quality bats like Teoscar Hernandez and Seiya Suzuki. That suggests that even a repeat of 2024 could yield significantly stronger production.

Jose Iglesias

Few free agent hitters this year had a stronger platform season than Iglesias, who was worth 2.5 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR in just 85 games with the Mets thanks to an incredible .337/.381/.448 slash line, good for a 137 wRC+. Among second basemen with at least 250 plate appearances last year, that wRC+ is second only to Ketel Marte. Combined with Iglesias’s solid work with the glove around the infield, one would think that offense would make him a very attractive target for teams in need of help on the dirt. That’s not how things have played out so far, however. Iglesias has seemingly gotten little interest from clubs this winter, and a look under the hood helps to explain why.

Iglesias is on the older side, entering his age-35 season this year, and lacks a track record of success at the plate with a wRC+ of just 90 across more than 1,000 games in the majors. That’s not necessarily a death knell, as shown by Jurickson Profar turning last year’s breakout into a strong three-year guarantee with Atlanta, but underlying metrics suggest that Iglesias’s production last year is not anywhere near as sustainable. He was helped by an inflated .382 BABIP that’s nearly 70 points higher than his career .315 figure, and his xwOBA of .314 suggests his underlying performance was more akin to Jake Cronenworth than Francisco Lindor. Even with those potential red flags, however, Iglesias seems like the likely best option for teams in need of help on the infield.

Alex Verdugo

Verdugo won’t turn 29 until May, making him by far the youngest player mentioned on this list. He’s also found solid success at the plate before in his career, as demonstrated by his .289/.343/.435 (108 wRC+) slash line from 2019 to 2022. Those factors work in his favor, but to this point in his free agency he’s been unable to capitalize on them coming off the worst offensive campaign of his career. Verdugo slashed just .233/.291/.356 (83 wRC+) in 149 games for the Yankees last year, a figure that made him one of the ten worst hitters in the sport to qualify for the batting title. That won’t cut it for a bat-first position like left field, even if Verdugo is a quality defender at the position.

Things aren’t entirely grim for the outfielder, however. Verdugo’s .302 xwOBA suggests that his underlying performance was roughly league average last year, and his offensive production could also be improved by limiting his exposure to same-handed pitchers given that he’s a career 79 wRC+ hitter against southpaws who mostly repeated that with a 74 wRC+ last year. It’s also worth noting that Verdugo’s .253 BABIP last season was substantially worse than any other campaign of his career and a full 60 points below his career norm entering the year. While there’s little to like in Verdugo’s 2024 numbers, it would be reasonable to suggest that his youth and upside relative to the rest of the players mentioned here makes him an attractive option.

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo is entering his age-35 season an arguably the most difficult player to evaluate on this list. He’s played just 191 games over the past two years due to a number of substantial injuries, though none of them are the type of injury that would portend future injury woes: after suffering a concussion in early May of 2023, Rizzo saw his performance decline as he unknowingly played through the injury before being diagnosed with post-concussion syndrome ahead of a season-ending trip to the injured list in August of that year. He returned in 2024 but was limited to just 92 games by a fractured forearm and a finger fracture stemming from a collision at first base and a hit-by-pitch, respectively.

Over the past two years, Rizzo has not hit well. The veteran first baseman has slashed just .237/.315/.358 (91 wRC+) since the start of the 2023 campaign, and his expected numbers don’t show clear signs of untapped potential. For a 35-year-old restricted to first base and DH defensively, that could be enough for many teams to dismiss him as a regular option. With that being said, however, Rizzo also sports a track record as one of the most consistent hitters of the decade prior to his injuries with a .268/.368/.486 (131 wRC+) slash line from 2012 to 2022. Rizzo was off to an excellent start in 2023, with a .301/.376/.513 (146 wRC+) slash line in 50 games prior to the concussion. Given his track record of success and the stark drop of production he faced amid the injuries of the past two seasons, perhaps a fully healthy campaign is all it would take to get the veteran’s career back on track.

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The four aforementioned hitters certainly aren’t the only ones remaining in free agency, though the remaining group come with plenty of question marks. David Peralta posted a strong 115 wRC+ with the Padres last year, but did so in only 260 plate appearances, is entering his age-38 campaign, and looked overmatched as a semi-regular player for the Dodgers the year prior. Whit Merrifield is a versatile fielder who posted roughly league average (97 wRC+) production with the Braves down the stretch last year, but did so only after a disastrous (63 wRC+) stint with the Phillies earlier in the season. Nick Senzel is a former top prospect who’s still just 29 years old, but has yet to hit in the majors across parts of six seasons.

Which of free agency’s remaining hitters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Yankees’ Third Base Battle

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The Yankees have remodeled their roster in a big way this offseason after losing Juan Soto to their intracity rivals in Queens, bringing in players like Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, and Cody Bellinger in order to bolster a roster that came into the winter with a number of holes. But apart from adding Goldschmidt at first, they haven’t addressed the infield. Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe figure to lockdown first base and shortstop respectively, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is currently penciled in as the club’s starting second baseman after playing third in deference to Gleyber Torres last year.

Chisholm’s likely move back to second leaves a hole at the hot corner, however, and the club’s options to filling that void leave much to be desired. With two years and $30MM remaining on his six-year, $90MM contract with the club, veteran DJ LeMahieu may seem like the obvious favorite to open the season as a starter for the club. Unfortunately, however, the now 36-year-old veteran took a tumble in terms of productivity last year. Injury woes delayed his start to the season and ultimately limited him to just 67 games, but even when LeMahieu was healthy enough to play his work wasn’t up to snuff. The veteran hit just .204/.269/.259, leaving him with a career-worst 52 wRC+ that was 15th from the bottom among all hitters who had at least 200 plate appearances last year.

It’s worth noting that LeMahieu’s underlying performance wasn’t quite as dire as his actual on-field production last year. LeMahieu’s .299 xwOBA far outstrips his actual wOBA of .239, with that expected number actually being better than the expected production of a handful of last year’s quality infield regulars like Luis Rengifo and Tyler Fitzgerald. LeMahieu’s barrel rate of 5.8% was perfectly in line with his numbers from the previous two seasons, and while his hard-hit rate was down, that drop wasn’t enough to justify his complete power outage in 2024, when he hit just five doubles and two homers in 228 trips to the plate. His .229 batting average on balls in play was also almost comically low, and his 15.4% strikeout rate remained excellent.

While any hope of LeMahieu returning to his former status as a clearly above-average contributor is likely misplaced with his 37th birthday approaching this July, it’s certainly not impossible to imagine a bit better luck on batted balls allowing him to be a roughly average regular so long as his defense holds up. That might be enough to assure him of a nearly everyday role with the Yankees to open the season, at least as things stand. While rolling the dice on a rebound from an aging veteran like LeMahieu is sure to a cause queasy feelings among fans, his competition for the job isn’t exactly robust.

The player in the third base competition coming off the best 2024 season is Oswaldo Cabrera. The switch-hitting utility man had an up-and-down season last year, hitting .247/.296/.365 (88 wRC+) overall while primarily playing third base but also mixing in time at every position on the diamond other than catcher and center field. His bat was quite inconsistent throughout the year, however. After a torrid ten-game stretch to open the season where he managed three home runs among twelve hits, Cabrera hit just .221/.269/.304 with a wRC+ of 62 across the rest of the first half, totaling 198 plate appearances in that time.

While the 25-year-old turned things around down the stretch and hit a respectable .271/.319/.424 after the All-Star break, that production came in a reduced role that saw him take just 92 trips to the plate across the final ten weeks of the season last year. That late-season uptick in production combined with the fact that he’ll only turn 26 later this week might be enough to convince Yankees brass that he’s worthy of another shot as a regular, but it would also be understandable if the club saw it as a signal that Cabrera is best suited for a utility role where his versatility can be best maximized and he can be more easily protected from tougher match ups.

The final top contender for playing time on the Yankees infield at the moment is Oswald Peraza. Still just 24 years old, Peraza is a former top-100 prospect who has yet to make a name for himself in the big leagues, having hit just .216/.297/.315 (74 wRC+) in 259 trips to the plate at the big league level over the past three seasons. Peraza is considered a quality defender all around the infield and has gotten only sporadic playing time in the majors to this point, so it’s fair to argue that he has the highest chance of blossoming into an above-average regular of the Yankees’ three primary third base options this year.

With that being said, however, Peraza’s prospect star lost its shine for a reason. A shoulder issue slowed him out of the gate last year, delaying the start of his season until May. And when he finally made his season debut, he found himself struggling to hit even at the Triple-A level with a pedestrian .246/.341/.394 line across 406 plate appearances. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Peraza is out of options, meaning that the Yankees would have to carry him on the big league roster as he not only attempts to bounce back from a tough season in the minors last year but also attempts to produce against major league pitching for the first time in his career.

Other internal options beyond this trio are few and far between. Jorbit Vivas is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make the majors, posted weaker numbers than Peraza at Triple-A last year, and has a minor league option remaining. Pablo Reyes is in camp as a non-roster invitee but is a career .248/.309/.349 (78 wRC+) hitter in the majors who posted a brutal 23 wRC+ in brief stints with the Red Sox and Mets last year. Braden Shewmake and Andrew Velazquez are also in camp with the club but have yet to show an ability to hit major league pitching to this point in their careers. While an external addition would make plenty of sense for the club, the pickings on the free agent market are very slim at this point, and the Yankees have signaled they don’t have the budget space necessary for a pursuit of a high-dollar solution like Nolan Arenado without first offsetting the cost by trading a veteran like Marcus Stroman.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation at third base will play out for the Yankees? Will they lean on LeMahieu in hopes of a bounceback? Should they turn to Cabrera despite his inconsistency and value as a utility player? Or could they give the reins to Peraza in hopes he can continue to develop at the big league level? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Be The Cubs’ Fifth Starter?

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As Spring Training gets underway, teams routinely find themselves dealing with unfortunate surprise injuries that can force a change in plans. That may prove to have been the case for the Cubs when presumed fifth starter Javier Assad was diagnosed with an oblique issue at the outset of camp. Given that the strain Assad is reportedly suffering from is mild, he hasn’t been ruled out for Opening Day. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed the club’s rotation outlook yesterday and suggested that the Cubs may not push Assad to be ready for Opening Day.

If Assad were to open the season on the injured list, that would leave the door wide open for another player to take that final rotation spot, and even if he’s healthy Assad seems to be less firmly locked into the rotation than Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, or Matthew Boyd. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have the starting pitching depth necessary to cover for Assad if he’s injured and consider other options even in the event that he’s healthy. Though they’ll only need two starting pitchers for their two-game set against the Dodgers in Tokyo that predates the normal start of the regular season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cubs wanted to have a good idea of what their rotation was going to look like entering that first series of the year.

If he’s healthy, Assad remains easy to bet on for the job. After all, the right-hander delivered 29 solid starts for the Cubs in 2024, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in 147 innings of work. Those are fairly impressive numbers for a back-end starter, but it’s worth noting they also come with notable red flags: Assad wore down badly throughout the year after a hot start, with a 4.84 ERA from June onward and an ugly 6.86 ERA down the stretch in September last year. In addition to those deep struggles later in the season, the right-hander also posted lackluster peripherals with a 4.64 FIP, a strikeout rate of just 19.4%, and a hefty 9.9% walk rate. That’s one of the 10 worst seasons by K-BB% and one of the 15 worst seasons by FIP in all of baseball last year among pitchers with as many innings as Assad.

Should Assad’s combination of spring injuries and second-half struggles give the Cubs enough pause to turn to someone else on Opening Day, it’s possible that offseason addition Colin Rea could be the first to get the call. Rea, 34, signed with the Cubs last month on a one-year, $5MM pact. The righty had a brief stint with the Cubs during the shortened 2020 season, but spend the past two seasons in Milwaukee as a back-end starter for the Brewers. The right-hander posted a 4.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances over the past two seasons, 42 of which were starts.

Rea posted a higher FIP (4.75) and a lower strikeout rate (18.9%) than even Assad did last year, but he made up for that gap in effectiveness with volume. Rea posted 167 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers last year between 27 starts and five relief appearances, and showed the ability to pitch deep into games as he did so with 19 starts lasting longer than five innings, 11 of which went at least six and five of which saw him pitch into the seventh inning. That ability to pitch into the seventh sets Rea apart from his competitors, as all of the other pitchers mentioned who started an MLB game in the majors last year combined for just two seven-inning starts in 2024. Rea is also notable as the only pitcher discussed here who is both already on the 40-man roster and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning he’s all but assured a spot in either the Opening Day rotation or bullpen so long as he’s healthy.

While Assad and Rea may be the frontrunners for the job, there are certainly other options worth considering. Chief among those may be right-hander Ben Brown, who stepped into a rotation role with the Cubs early last year and looked good doing so. Brown’s rookie campaign saw him post a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP with an excellent 28.8% strikeout rate. Those are fantastic numbers for any pitcher, but it’s particularly impressive for a 24-year-old getting his feet wet in the majors for the first time.

Unfortunately, Brown’s debut season was limited to just 55 1/3 innings in total, as he was shut down in June due to what Sharma reports turned out to be an osteoma, which is a benign tumor made of bone growing on an existing piece of bone. Brown appears to be healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season and is likely the pitcher with the highest upside the Cubs could turn to for their final rotation job, but his lack of big league experience and long layoff could make the club hesitant to immediately plug him into the rotation.

Another legitimate contender for the role could be southpaw Jordan Wicks, the club’s first-rounder from the 2021 draft and a former top-100 prospect. Wicks has yet to find success at the big league level in 80 2/3 innings of work across 18 appearances (17 starts), with a 5.02 ERA and a nearly matching 5.05 FIP. Like Brown, Wicks also missed much of the 2024 season due to injuries which, in his case, consisted of forearm and oblique issues. That combination of big league struggles and injury history seem to suggest the 25-year-old might be best suited to start the season at Triple-A, but his peripheral numbers were quite strong last year before he got bit by the injury bug as demonstrated by his 25.9% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate in five starts before hitting the IL for the first time.

The aforementioned quartet aren’t the only plausible options, but they’re by far the most likely. Top prospect Cade Horton is a potential front-of-the-rotation arm who would be an exciting addition to the club’s staff, but he suffered a lost season in 2024 due to a subscapularis strain and is all but certain to get more reps in at Triple-A before making the jump to the majors. Non-roster invitees Brad Keller and Chris Flexen are veteran depth pieces who have served as viable back-end starters in recent years, but Keller appears to be getting work in as a reliever this spring while Flexen offers a similar profile to Rea but with lesser results and no guaranteed contract. Nate Pearson was discussed as a potential starting option over the offseason but has success in relief with the Cubs last year pitched just one inning of relief in his first spring appearance.

Who do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will turn to in order to round out the rotation? Will Assad return healthy and effective from his oblique issue to lock down the role? Will the club prioritize Rea due to volume and roster considerations, or go with a higher-upside pitcher like Brown or perhaps Wicks? Have your say in the poll below:

How Will Reds Divide Third Base Playing Time?

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The infield was a big reason for the Reds’ disappointing 2024 season. Regarded as the club’s strength entering Spring Training, it thinned quickly when Matt McLain suffered a shoulder injury and Noelvi Marte was hit with a PED suspension. By the end of camp, the Reds needed to trade for utilityman Santiago Espinal to backfill depth.

Cincinnati infielders hit .243/.313/.409 last season, which ranked 20th in park-adjusted offense. That’s despite a superstar performance at shortstop from Elly De La Cruz. Their .236/.303/.384 slash from the other three infield spots placed fifth from the bottom by measure of wRC+. Only the White Sox, Pirates, Rockies and Angels got less out of those positions.

McLain is back and will be the everyday second baseman, which Cincinnati ensured with the Jonathan India/Brady Singer swap at the beginning of the offseason. De La Cruz is obviously locked in at shortstop. The corner infield is much more up in the air. Signing Austin Hays theoretically allows new manager Terry Francona to bring Spencer Steer back onto the dirt as his primary first baseman. That decision may depend on who’s playing the hot corner, which is arguably the key question for the Reds to sort out this spring.

Jeimer Candelario was the unquestioned starter this time a year ago. Cincinnati inked the switch-hitter to a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. He was coming off a .251/.336/.471 showing between the Nationals and Cubs. That marked Candelario’s third strong season within the last four years. The Reds expected that to continue. Instead, he hit .225/.279/.429 during his first season in Cincinnati. While he connected on 20 homers, he had a career-worst walk rate (5.8%) and on-base percentage. Candelario also graded poorly defensively, leading to a sub-replacement level performance.

Candelario’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy. His performance was probably impacted by a knee issue through which he played for a good chunk of last season. The Reds wouldn’t have cut bait after one season of a three-year deal even if he’d simply underperformed while at full health. That said, they’re less likely to stick with him as a regular third baseman if he doesn’t turn things around quickly.

That presumably played a role in the Gavin Lux trade. Cincinnati acquired the former top prospect from the Dodgers for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and the 41st pick in the upcoming draft. After missing all of 2023 to an ACL tear, Lux had a league average .251/.320/.383 slash with 10 homers in 487 plate appearances last season. The in-season splits were dramatic. Lux had a terrible first half, caught fire coming out of the All-Star Break, then didn’t hit during L.A.’s World Series run. The second half numbers might hint at a greater offensive ceiling, but he’s nearly 1500 plate appearances into his career and has been an average hitter (.252/.326/.383).

Average offensive production would be an upgrade over what Candelario provided last season. The bigger question is whether Lux can handle third base. He moved off shortstop because of throwing accuracy concerns. Lux didn’t start a game anywhere other than second base last year. He has six career innings as a third baseman from one game in 2021 (in which he made two throwing errors). He hasn’t started a regular season game on the left side of the infield in four years.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com wrote last week that the Reds intend to move Lux around the infield during Spring Training. He could eventually see time in the outfield as well, though Francona indicated they’d have him solely on the infield at the beginning of camp. Lux and Francona each expressed confidence in his ability to make all the necessary throws, though that’s obviously something he’ll need to continue to prove in games.

Lux has minor league options remaining, but the Reds wouldn’t have given up two decent assets and taken on a $3.325MM arbitration salary if they didn’t expect him playing a key role. He’ll be on the MLB roster. If that’s not as the regular third baseman, he’d bounce around in a utility capacity and potentially work as a designated hitter. Cincinnati’s bench is otherwise heavily right-handed, so Lux’s lefty bat could provide balance.

Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have less established MLB roster spots. They were each highly-touted prospects, Marte in particular, whose stocks tanked in 2024. Marte was banned for the season’s first 80 games after testing positive for Boldenone. He had a terrible second half upon his reinstatement. He hit .210/.248/.301 with a 31% strikeout rate and a meager 3.7% walk percentage over 242 plate appearances. He’ll need to dramatically hone in his plate discipline to tap into the power that made him a top prospect. At 23 years old, he’s far from finished, but it’s tough to see him winning an MLB job out of camp.

Encarnacion-Strand had an impressive half-season in 2023. He hit 13 homers with a .270/.328/.477 slash as a rookie. That earned him the Opening Day first base job last year. His season never really got off the ground. Encarnacion-Strand hit .190 with a .220 OBP over 29 games. A fracture in his right hand sent him to the injured list in early May. He attempted to rehab but required season-ending surgery six weeks later. It’s easy to write last year off as an injury-related anomaly, but he’s an unlikely long-term answer at third base. Prospect evaluators have panned his defense, with most projecting him as a first baseman. Even if he gets back on track offensively, he’s likely to see most of his action at first or DH.

The Reds have a few other third base options — none of whom are likely to push for the job early in the season. Espinal is back as a glove-first infielder. His .247/.300/.348 slash over the past two years points to a utility role. Cincinnati selected Cooper Bowman from the A’s in the Rule 5 draft. He has been a second baseman for most of his career and has 53 professional innings at the hot corner. Even if he sticks on the MLB roster, it’d be in a developmental capacity. Steer and Rece Hinds each played third in the minors but moved off the position for defensive reasons. Prospect Tyler Callihan is on the 40-man roster but has only four career Triple-A games.

How will the Reds divvy up playing time at the hot corner this season?

 

Poll: Giants Backup Catcher

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Entering Spring Training, there was some belief that veteran catcher Tom Murphy’s job backing up Patrick Bailey in San Francisco wasn’t entirely assured even in of the $4.25MM guaranteed remaining on his contract with the Giants. The door has opened for other alternatives even more since then, as the club announced yesterday that Murphy will miss multiple weeks with a herniated disc in his mid-back.

While Murphy is still tentatively expected to be available at some point in the first half, his availability for the start of the season is in serious doubt. With the club’s incumbent likely to miss at least the start of the season due to injury, the Giants have little choice but to seriously consider the number of alternative options currently in camp with them. The club has four catchers in camp aside from Bailey and Murphy as things stand: Sam Huff, Max Stassi, Logan Porter, and Adrian Sugastey. Sugastey is just 22 years old and slashed a meager .210/.241/.304 at Double-A last season, leaving him extremely unlikely to be called up to the majors until he’s had more time to develop. Huff, Stassi, and Porter all appear to be legitimate contenders for the job, however.

To the extent that there’s a favorite for the job, it seems that status would fall to Huff now that Murphy is out of commission. Unlike the other options in camp with the club, Huff is already on the 40-man roster after being plucked off waivers from the Rangers shortly after the new year. A former consensus top-100 prospect, Huff was a seventh-round pick by the Rangers in 2016 who blossomed into an intriguing bat-first catcher during his time in the minor leagues. Above-average offense isn’t necessarily a must from a club’s backup catcher, but given Bailey’s light-hitting, defense-first profile it’s easy to see why the Giants might be attracted to Huff as a potential complement.

A career .263/.334/.480 hitter across all levels of the minors, Huff has 78 games in the big leagues under his belt across four seasons with Texas. Unfortunately, that big league playing time has been something of a mixed bag. While he’s posted a solid 112 wRC+ in 214 career MLB plate appearances, he’s struck out at a massive 33.6% clip and largely been buoyed by a .353 BABIP that seems unlikely to be sustainable. Huff has generally been regarded as a below-average defender behind the plate as well despite a strong throwing arm and decent framing ability. That lack of defensive excellence puts more pressure on Huff’s bat, and it can be difficult for a high-strikeout profile like Huff’s to offer consistent production in a bench role.

Those potential question marks surrounding Huff could open the door for Stassi to take the job. The most experienced catcher in the backup mix for the Giants (even including Murphy), the soon to be 34-year-old has participated in parts of 10 MLB seasons, including a three-year run of regular at-bats with the Angels from 2020 to 2022. While the 2020 and ’21 seasons saw Stassi briefly break out offensively with a solid 113 wRC+, Stassi is mostly a glove-first catcher; he hit just .180/.267/.303 across 102 games in 2022 and has a career wRC+ of just 83. With +20 framing runs since the start of the 2018 season according to Statcast, however, Stassi makes up for his lack of offense with excellent defense that could pair with Bailey to give the Giants the best defensive tandem behind the plate in the sport.

Stassi comes with his own flaws, however. Most notably, he hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2022 due to a combination of family considerations and injuries. At nearly 34 years old, Stassi has reached the age where many catchers start to struggle to stay effective due to the toll the position takes on the body, and that concern is exacerbated for Stassi in particular due to both his checkered recent history and the fact that he regressed both offensively and defensively during the 2022 campaign.

Of course, that regression may have also had something to do with his career-high workload that year, an issue that would not come up in 2025 should he serve as Bailey’s backup. On the other hand, Stassi offers little upside, with even a solid rebound from his 2022 season likely ending with him being a below-average hitter. Huff offers significantly more upside, both due to the potential of his bat and because he has less than two years of MLB service time under his belt at this point, allowing him to be controlled through the end of the 2029 season.

Porter, meanwhile, stands as less likely to earn the job than either Huff or Stassi but also represents something of a middle ground between the two. The 29-year-old is the least experienced of the trio at the big league level, having appeared in just 11 games with the Royals back in 2023. With that being said, he has a reputation as a strong defender and pairs that with a bat that showed some life at Triple-A last year, where he slashed a combined .267/.370/.453 (114 wRC+) in 73 across the Royals, Mets, and Giants organizations. Given his lack of big league experience, Porter could be controlled long-term and even optioned to the minor leagues if added to the 40-man roster, while Huff is out of options and Stassi has enough service time to decline an optional assignment.

Assuming Murphy begins the season on the injured list, which catcher should the Giants pair with Bailey? Is Huff’s former top prospect status and offensive upside worth the lackluster defense and potential contact issues? Should the club gamble on Stassi’s track record of MLB success despite his long layoff from big league games and worrying signals in his 2022 campaign? Or should the club take a chance on Porter despite his minimal big league experience? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will The Astros Add Another Bat?

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Over the weekend, it was reported that the Astros circled back to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado in trade talks after longtime third baseman Alex Bregman officially departed the club to sign with the Red Sox. Those renewed conversations surrounding Arenado don’t appear likely to result in a deal as things stand, but they do demonstrate a clear desire on the part of Astros brass to improve upon an offense that lost both Bregman and star outfielder Kyle Tucker this winter.

It’s not hard to see why Houston would like to upgrade their lineup. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances for the club last year, Tucker led the way with a sensational 181 wRC+ while Bregman ranked fourth with a figure of 118. As important as both players were, it’s fair to point out the club has a number of successful hitters still in the fold: Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+) and Jose Altuve (127 wRC+) put up excellent numbers last year, and the catcher position remains strong with Yainer Diaz (117 wRC+) and Victor Caratini (113 wRC+).

Still, the combination of Alvarez, Altuve, Diaz, and Caratini cover just three spots in the lineup. The quartet do not figure to be in the same lineup very often this year, particularly now that Altuve is slated to play left field on at least a semi-frequent basis in order to keep Alvarez at DH, thereby stopping manager Joe Espada from penciling Diaz or Caratini in at DH on days when the other catching. Offseason additions of Isaac Paredes (117 wRC+) and Christian Walker (119 wRC+) should help to keep things afloat, with Paredes in particular projecting to serve as a near perfect replacement for Bregman with the bat despite his shortcomings on defense.

The Astros have a solid offensive nucleus, but their lineup figures to include several below-average hitters this year and sorely miss the offensive contributions Tucker has offered throughout his career. Without Tucker, the club’s entire projected outfield mix is questionable. Center fielder Jake Meyers is a career .228/.292/.371 (87 wRC+) hitter whose 2024 numbers were right in line with that production. Ben Gamel posted a 115 wRC+ last year, but that came in just 99 plate appearances and was his first above average offensive season since 2018. Chas McCormick has shown some solid potential with the bat in the past, but he’s coming off a career-worst campaign where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+). He’s also struggled to produce against right-handed pitching even in his more successful seasons.

The introduction of Altuve to the club’s left field mix should help to add some pop to the outfield, but the leading candidates to take over for him at second base are Mauricio Dubon and Brendan Rodgers. Both have six seasons in the majors, and neither has posted an above-average offensive season. What’s more, the departure of Tucker and Jon Singleton’s move to the bench leaves Alvarez as the club’s only lefty swinging regular, unless the club turns to Gamel for everyday reps. It seems clear that the Astros would benefit from adding another hitter to the mix — ideally a lefty.

The problem, however, is that very few options remain available in free agency, and even fewer of them are left-handed. Alex Verdugo has plenty of experience in left field and is perhaps the best left-handed bat still available, but he’s coming off a career-worst season. David Peralta is coming off a solid season in a part-time role with the Padres last year but is headed into his age-37 campaign. In terms of potential infielders, part-time players like Jose Iglesias and Whit Merrifield are not only right-handed, but also provide little over internal options like Dubon and Rodgers.

Perhaps there’s a trade to be worked out, even as swinging a deal for Arenado remains unlikely. The Twins have been rumored to be getting calls on utility man Willi Castro this winter, and a switch-hitter capable of playing both the infield and outfield seems like an ideal fit. Meanwhile, Tigers infielder Zach McKinstry and Mets infielder Brett Baty are two lefty bats currently on the bubble of their club’s 26-man roster.

In the case of a Castro trade or even a signing like Verdugo, money might also be a complicating factor. Reports have generally described the Astros’ budget as close to maxed out, with high-dollar moves like signing Bregman or trading for Arenado likely to require a greenlight from ownership. While it’s unclear exactly how much wiggle room Houston’s front office has, it appeared telling that GM Dana Brown indicated earlier this month that he sees an external addition of note as unlikely. With limited options still available and a seemingly limited budget to work with, perhaps the Astros will simply enter the season with their current roster unless a veteran opting out of a minor league deal or a player placed on the waiver wire in the run-up to Opening Day creates an opportunity.

Do MLBTR readers think the Astros will address their offense further before the season begins, or enter the 2025 season with what they have? Have your say in the poll below!

Poll: Will The Red Sox Extend Garrett Crochet This Spring?

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The Red Sox had their biggest offseason in years this winter, and after a failed pursuit of Juan Soto kicked things off in earnest by pulling off a massive trade with the White Sox where they sent multiple top prospects to Chicago in exchange for the club’s top left-handed pitcher. That Garrett Crochet deal naturally brought to mind the Chris Sale swap from nearly a decade ago, but one major difference between the two deals is the amount of team control remaining: Sale was locked up for three seasons when the Red Sox acquired him, while Crochet only has two years of team control remaining.

That shorter team control window could pose a problem for the Red Sox, given that their deep cache of impact, upper-level prospect talent is only just beginning to reach the major leagues. If Crochet doesn’t stay in Boston beyond the 2026 season, he may only overlap with top hitters like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer for a year or so before the club will once again have a vacancy at the top of their rotation. Fortunately for fans in Boston, there seems to be mutual interest in an extension. Crochet spoke about the state of extension talks with the club last month and emphasized how appealing the idea of remaining in Boston long-term was to him just days after the club reportedly approached his camp about the possibility of an extension.

Of course, mutual interest in an extension won’t always lead to a deal and it’s also possible that Crochet’s feelings have shifted. He was asked about the extension possibility again last week, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and seemed a bit more open to taking his time: “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload. [I] was on a short leash. Part of me wants to see what I could do in a full season before, I suppose, locking myself into a certain bracket of player.”

Crochet and the club will still need to line up on what appropriate value for a deal would be, and that could be quite difficult given Crochet’s extremely unusual career path to this point. Drafted 11th overall by the White Sox in the 2020 draft despite the fact that he had spent most of his time in the SEC pitching out of the bullpen, Crochet was brought straight to the major leagues as a reliever and pitched to a phenomenal 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings of work for Chicago from 2020 to 2021. At the time, the club appeared to be eyeing a rotation role for Crochet in 2022, but he underwent Tommy John surgery that April and did not pitch again in the majors until late in the 2023 season.

By that point, the White Sox had already begun rebuilding. That gave them little reason not to explore using Crochet out of the rotation, and so he stretched out over the winter and was tapped as the club’s Opening Day starter for his first career MLB start last year. The lefty was nothing short of brilliant in 32 starts last year, but nearly tripled his career-high workload with 146 innings of work. The White Sox carefully managed his innings throughout the season in an effort to keep him healthy, and he threw just 44 2/3 innings total over his final 14 starts, less than 3 1/3 innings per start. That lack of volume could raise some questions about Crochet’s ability to stay healthy while handling a traditional starter’s workload, particularly given that his ERA in the first half of the season was just 3.00 while that figured ballooned to 4.84 in the second half.

Those potential workload concerns could tamp down Boston’s willingness to offer Crochet a premium guarantee, even as his underlying numbers suggest a ceiling commensurate with the game’s very best starting pitchers. Crochet’s 2.69 FIP would’ve trailed only Cy Young award winners Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal if he had enough innings to qualify, and his eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate led all starters who pitched even 20 innings last year. It’s also worth noting that Crochet won’t celebrate his 26th birthday until nearly halfway through the 2025 season, and that youth could help to ease some of Boston’s concerns about his longer-term outlook in terms of health and durability.

With so many competing factors to consider, it’s fair to argue that Crochet is one of the most difficult players to pin down in terms of value. Prior to last summer’s trade deadline, reporting indicated that Crochet may view Tyler Glasnow’s $136.5MM guarantee with the Dodgers as a target for extension talks although, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed in a post for Front Office subscribers back in August, Glasnow had six years of service time at the time of his deal with L.A. which could make it difficult for Crochet to reach those same heights. If that’s still Crochet’s asking price, it’s possible the Red Sox might prefer to play his first season under club control out and revisit negotiations later this year or next offseason. With that being said, a big season from Crochet would surely push his asking price up substantially. That figures to be especially true if he manages to stay healthy and qualify for the ERA title this year.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between Crochet and the Red Sox? Will they come together on an extension before Opening Day? Or will the Red Sox wait to see how Crochet performs with the club during his first season in Boston before making a decision? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Do The Mets Need Another Starter?

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The Mets undeniably made the single biggest splash of the entire winter when they brought superstar slugger Juan Soto into the fold on a record-shattering $765MM deal back in December. Along with the club’s reunion with Pete Alonso and some complementary additions like Jesse Winker and Jose Siri, the Mets’ offense appears to be in a very strong place as they look to build off their NLCS appearance last year.

The same cannot be said for the rotation. Despite rumors that connected the Mets to top starters on the trade market like Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease (as well as plenty of early speculation about the Mets as potential suitors for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried), the club took a far more measured approach to its starting staff. With Kodai Senga and David Peterson already in the fold, the club reunited with southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency while bringing in Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning to replace Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Joey Lucchesi on the depth chart.

It’s an interesting group of names, and it’s not hard to see the potential upside in those moves. Holmes becomes the latest well-regarded reliever to try his hand at starting, and success stories like Crochet, Seth Lugo, and Reynaldo Lopez offer a tantalizing glimpse at what Holmes could provide the Mets with should the move work out. Meanwhile, Montas was a well-regarded No. 2 starter as recently as three years ago, and Canning is just one year removed from being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels.

Still, there’s plenty of very real risk involved with each of the club’s additions. Holmes could instead follow in the footsteps of less-successful rotation converts like Jordan Hicks or even A.J. Puk. Montas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and struggled to remain effective even when he is on the mound, and Canning was arguably the single worst qualified starter in baseball last year. Even Manaea is coming off a career year that he may not be able to repeat in his age-33 season this year.

The question marks in the rotation came to a head earlier this week when it was revealed that Montas is currently suffering from a lat strain that was expected to shut him down for six to eight weeks. The veteran righty has since suggested that he’s set for just four to six weeks of no-throw, but that still suggests he may not have even begun throwing when Opening Day rolls around, at which point he’ll still need to make up for the lost preparation time caused by him missing a full spring training. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the Mets will be without Montas until sometime in May. If they still intend to use a six-man rotation, that would likely mean that Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes will be joined by Canning and Paul Blackburn.

Naturally, questions have arisen about whether the club should make another addition. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued that the Mets hadn’t done enough with the rotation even before news of Montas’ injury.) A number of veteran starters are still available in free agency, including four who made MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list at the outset of the offseason. A recent MLBTR Poll suggested that fans views Quintana as the best of those remaining arms, though the Mets have not been involved in his market despite interest in a reunion from the veteran southpaw’s side.

Even if the Mets aren’t enamored with the possibility of a Quintana reunion, both Andrew Heaney and Spencer Turnbull are still available and could be used either in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the club’s needs, affording the Mets flexibility when Montas returns. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among the other veteran arms still available in free agency.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club’s rotation already runs six names deep even without Montas. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned — both have five-plus years of service — but righties Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman are both on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Top prospect Brandon Sproat will likely make his debut at some point in 2025 as well.

If the Mets don’t add anyone right now, they could look for rotation help closer to the trade deadline if it proves necessary. That would allow them to find out more about their offseason rolls of the dice on guys like Montas and Canning before deciding if they need another arm. There will also likely be a larger supply of arms available in July, as the number of sellers will increase relative to spring training, where optimism abounds throughout the league. Perhaps the risk of having to surrender an exciting young piece from their farm system to add an arm this summer makes adding depth now for nothing but money a more attractive option. Each side has its pros and cons.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the issue? Are the Mets too light on talent in the rotation to compete with the Braves and Phillies for the NL East crown this year without another arm? Or should they stick with their internal options to open the season and reassess their starting depth at the trade deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: The Dodgers’ Rotation

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The Dodgers have long been expected to utilize a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, and have accordingly assembled a deep group of arms. Last week, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that, with Ohtani not expected to debut as a pitcher until sometime in May, the Dodgers intend to open the season with a five-man rotation. Four of those spots will go to Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki. That fifth spot appears to be up for grabs, with the two leading candidates being a pair of arms that missed the 2024 season entirely due to injury: right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.

It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.

Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.

May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.

There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.

It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.

Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:

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