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Poll: Where Will Tanner Scott Sign?

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After staying cold for the majority of the offseason, the free agent market has finally begun to heat up for relievers this week with veteran right-handers Chris Martin and Andrew Kittredge both agreeing to one-year deals. They join previous deals for Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi Garcia among the major signings of the winter among late-inning relief arms, but a number of the top arms on the market remain available at this point. Chief among those options is left-hander Tanner Scott, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 with the Marlins and built on that last year to deliver a dominant platform campaign in Miami and San Diego.

Scott’s fantastic work over the past two seasons, when he’s pitched to a combined 2.04 ERA (224 ERA+) with a 2.53 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate in 150 innings of work, has catapulted him to the pinnacle of the market for relief arms in his first trip through free agency this winter. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Scott would land a four-year, $56MM deal. Even that hefty price tag may have been light, as reporting has indicated that Scott could receive a multi-year deal in the realm of $20MM annually.

That would seemingly put him in line with the other top closers on the market in recent years, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz, at least in terms of average annual value. The largest guarantee for a reliever in MLB history went to Diaz, who signed a five-year, $102MM deal ($20.4MM AAV). That contract contained considerable deferrals, however, and by measure of net present value was valued closer to $93MM. Hader signed a five-year deal worth $95MM without deferred money ($19MM AAV). It would be a surprise if Scott managed to surpass the guarantees Hader and Diaz landed, but the AAV is more feasible (especially on a three-year deal).

Scott is a few months older than Hader was at the time of his deal and more than a year older than Diaz was. He also simply lacks the track record of the other two. Hader and Diaz were multi-time All-Stars with top-10 Cy Young finishes who’d spent virtually their entire careers as late-inning arms. Scott was a middle reliever for the first several seasons of his career, with a 4.61 ERA (95 ERA+) and a 3.91 FIP entering his breakout 2023 campaign.

Rumblings on Scott haven’t been particularly prolific this winter, but a few teams have been connected to the southpaw. The Yankees were reportedly in the mix earlier this winter, though their addition of closer Devin Williams, current need for an infielder, and reportedly limited budget space going forward could take them out of the running. On the other hand, if they can trade Marcus Stroman, that might make them more amenable to another splash in the ’pen. The Dodgers have been the team most frequently connected to Scott, while the Mets reportedly held a meeting with him recently. The Braves and Red Sox have been at least loosely connected to Scott as well.

The Dodgers make plenty of sense after a season where they struggled to find consistency in the ninth inning. Their late-inning mix is currently headlined by a combination of Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Treinen. That trio all throw from the right side, making Scott a nice addition as a dominant southpaw to pair with fellow lefty Alex Vesia.

The Mets surely find the idea of pairing Scott with Diaz tantalizing. It’d be understandable if Diaz’s lost 2023 season and struggles in the first half of 2024 led the club to be a bit cautious when it comes to lengthy deals for relievers, but those factors may also reinforce the value of adding another shutdown arm who can help keep the bullpen afloat if Diaz is injured or struggling.

The Red Sox entered the winter in need of high-leverage relief help after losing Martin and Kenley Jansen to free agency, and expressed a clear preference for adding a lefty to the mix. That made Scott a seemingly ideal fit for the club, but they struck quickly in free agency by adding Chapman. They remain involved in the relief market, but it’s unclear whether they’re still pursuing Scott specifically.

Perhaps the most interesting sleeper is Atlanta. It’s been an extremely quiet winter for the Braves. By this time last year, they’d already swung trades for Aaron Bummer, Jarred Kelenic, and Chris Sale, extended both Sale and Pierce Johnson, and signed Joe Jimenez and Reynaldo Lopez in free agency. This winter has been quiet outside of trading Jorge Soler in a salary dump deal and restructuring the contracts of Lopez and Bummer. Atlanta’s most significant addition is a split contract for outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. The Braves generally aren’t shy about paying heavy per-year salaries in the bullpen, and with Raisel Iglesias ticketed for free agency next winter and Jimenez likely out for the season, perhaps the club could look to Scott to fortify the bullpen in the short-term before taking over as the closer in future seasons.

There are, of course, other speculative fits to consider — even if they’ve yet to be specifically linked to Scott. The D-backs still want a closer and already made one surprising free-agent grab when they inked Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays keep finishing runner-up on all their pursuits; could they eventually pivot to a big bullpen splash? The Giants have been tied to Pete Alonso recently and were in on Burnes before he signed in Arizona; they clearly still have some money to spend, even after signing Justin Verlander.

So, where will Scott end up? And will he approach or even exceed the deals landed by Hader and Diaz in free agency, or hew more closely to MLBTR’s $56MM prediction at the outset of free agency? Have your say in the polls below:

Poll: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?

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Just over a year removed from a disappointing offseason that saw the club emerge as a finalist for Shohei Ohtani but ultimately come up just short, the Blue Jays are once again in the midst of a difficult offseason where star players have repeatedly signed elsewhere despite aggressive pursuits from Toronto’s front office. The club was one of five teams seriously involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes but seemingly finished behind both New York teams and the Red Sox in their quest to land him. Since then, they’ve fallen short in pursuits of Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Teoscar Hernandez in free agency as well as Cody Bellinger on the trade market.

They’ve remained connected to virtually every major free agent available this winter, and have been linked to everyone from first baseman Pete Alonso to right-handers Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. Outfielder Anthony Santander is the player they’ve been most strongly connected to of all; they’ve reportedly made him a contract offer and are viewed (alongside the Angels) as potential front-runners for his services. Of course, the same was said about Toronto during the sweepstakes for Burnes before the right-hander landed in Arizona. With team president Mark Shapiro entering the final year of his contract and GM Ross Atkins under contract for just one year beyond that, the front office is surely facing plenty of pressure to make the club’s final year of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette count—particularly if the club isn’t able to work out an extension with the former.

The Jays are a team that stands to significantly benefit from an infusion of impact talent in virtually all areas of the roster. Their 101 wRC+ (13th in baseball) last year was middle of the pack, as was their 3.95 rotation ERA (14th). While the club’s disastrous 2024 bullpen (29th in baseball by ERA) seems to be an obvious place to upgrade, the presence of high-quality veterans like Kirby Yates, David Robertson, and Kenley Jansen on the market create plenty of options for the Jays if they goal is to add to their relief corps without committing to a large contract.

One complicating factor is that while the Jays have been connected to a number of upper-level players on the market, it remains unclear whether they have wherewithal to land multiple impact players. Reporting shortly after the Winter Meetings suggested that Toronto may have room for only one major addition in their budget, whether that player ends up being an arm or a bat. If the club truly is only willing or able to add one high-priced player this winter, there are valid arguments for either a rotation piece or a lineup addition.

The argument for adding to the club’s rotation is a fairly simply one: the starting five lost a valuable piece over the summer in Yusei Kikuchi, and he’s yet to he replaced . Right-handers Yariel Rodriguez and Jake Bloss are solid depth options but leave something to be desired as the club’s on-paper fifth starter options. While a weak back-end of the rotation is something a club could stomach with a strong front half, staff ace Kevin Gausman is coming off a pedestrian 2024 season and just celebrated his 34th birthday. Adding a starter like Flaherty to the mix would help to lighten Gausman’s load as he looks to rebound, take pressure off Bowden Francis to repeat a breakout 2024 season that saw him pitch to a 1.53 ERA in nine starts down the stretch, and allow the club to push Rodriguez into more of a depth role.

While the club’s rotation is short on depth, that’s one area where the Toronto offense excels. Interesting young players like Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, and Davis Schneider are currently projected for roles on the bench or at Triple-A on Opening Day, and that’s with Daulton Varsho expected to miss the first few weeks of the regular season. Varsho’s eventual return from the injured list should add even more depth, and with so many young hitters it’s not hard to imagine one of them taking a step forward in 2025.

While that group of young hitters (excluding Varsho) generally can’t be expected to produce on the level of a player like Santander or Alex Bregman, there is one player who could: Bichette. The star infielder struggled through a career-worst season in 2024 due to in part to injuries but had been among the steadiest All-Star level bats in baseball for several years prior to last season’s downturn.

It’s clear that the club’s offense needs at least some level of reinforcement. Of the 19 hitters to appear in at least 25 games for the Jays last season, only Guerrero was above average by measure of wRC+ and still remains with the team. While the club’s bevy of young hitters could improve and it’s easy to imagine Bichette or even Alejandro Kirk bouncing back to the more robust offensive performances they’ve offered in the past, Guerrero is the only true source of stability in the lineup.

That creates a strong argument for adding someone who can protect Guerrero, but it’s also fair to note that even a lesser addition who can provide above-average offense (e.g. Jesse Winker) could still help the lineup and leave the door open for a bigger addition to the rotation.

If you were in charge of the Blue Jays and only had room in the budget for one major addition, how would you handle the situation? Would you bolster the lineup and hope that a rebound from Gausman and a full season from Bowden in the rotation is enough to keep make up for the loss of Kikuchi and a lack of depth? Or would you add a starting pitcher and hope for a rebound from Bichette and steps forward from the club’s young hitters? Have your say in the poll below:

Triston Casas And Boston’s Infield Dilemma

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The rumor mill has been a whirlwind for Red Sox fans this offseason, with the club diving headfirst into the Juan Soto sweepstakes only to come up short, then getting involved in the markets for Max Fried and Corbin Burnes before ultimately pivoting to Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Now, Boston appears to be in the thick of the market for impact hitters. The club has not made its desire to land a bat who can help balance their heavily left-handed lineup out a secret this winter, and they’ve been connected to a number of major bats like Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, and Nolan Arenado.

There’s been plenty of focus on the possibility of the club adding a right-handed infielder like Bregman or Arenado in particular. Either of those deals could come with complications, however. Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are both top prospects for the Red Sox who figure to debut in 2025 and fit best on the infield. As the club is currently constructed, with Triston Casas and Rafael Devers at the corners and Trevor Story at shortstop, second base appears to be the cleanest way for either of those players to get into the lineup- or for the club to add a free agent infielder. Bregman has indicated a willingness to play the keystone, but it would be a risky decision for the Red Sox to play a solid defensive third baseman out of position in deference to the incumbent Devers and his lackluster defense. And the idea of adding a glove-first third baseman like Arenado and moving him off the hot corner seems even more farfetched.

That’s led to plenty of speculation swirling around the future of Casas this winter, as the young first baseman would be by far the easiest piece of the club’s infield mix to move. Casas, who turns 25 next week, has done nothing but hit in the majors to this point with a .250/.337/.473 slash line in 222 big league games so far. That’s been good for a 125 wRC+, and with four years of team control remaining the slugger could be a building block for a number of teams around the game—including the Red Sox. While a player with Casas’s combination of talent and team control should garner plenty of attention if made available on the market, it’s worth noting that the youngster’s 2024 season may have raised some red flags that could make potential suitors concerned about his value.

For one thing, he missed most of the season due to torn cartilage in his ribcage. In the 63 games where Casas was healthy enough to take the field, he hit just .241/.337/.462 (119 wRC+) and posted the lowest walk rate (12.3%) of his young career. Both of those are still well above-average figures and not necessarily cause for concern by themselves, but Casas’s sharp uptick in strikeouts is more alarming. He struck out at a 31.7% clip in his 243 plate appearances last year. If he had stayed healthy enough to qualify, that would’ve been the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors last year behind only Zack Gelof. Third on that list is Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz, proving it’s at least theoretically possible to be an impactful major leaguer even if you punch out nearly a third of the time, but that’s a much steeper ask for a player as defensively limited as Casas.

Of course, those potential red flags haven’t stopped Casas from getting plenty of attention in the rumor mill. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has insisted that the club isn’t shopping the young slugger, but several reports have indicated that the club is at least listening to offers on him even if they aren’t placing him on the trading block outright. In particular, there was plenty of smoke surrounding the possibility of a trade between the Red Sox and Mariners regarding Casas last month. Those talks reportedly saw Seattle rebuff the idea of either trading one of their young starting pitchers for Casas or else trading Luis Castillo for a package involving both Casas and pricey DH Masataka Yoshida, while the Red Sox balked at the idea of trading Casas for Castillo without also offloading Yoshida’s salary.

With Crochet and Buehler now in the fold, the Red Sox have an abundance of starting pitching options that could make a deal for a player like Castillo less palatable. That being said, reports have indicated that the club could still be open to dealing Casas in order to facilitate other roster moves. One such roster move a trade of Casas could facilitate would be the addition of Bregman or Arenado at third base, while Casas departs the roster in order to allow a potential move to first base for Devers. Alternatively, parting ways with Casas could open the door for the club to instead add a right-handed slugger like Pete Alonso to the lineup at first base if the club opts to keep Devers at the hot corner.

It’s an interesting conundrum the Red Sox face: they’ve missed the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and finally appear poised to seriously contend for the AL East again in 2025. There’s at least theoretically room for an impact player on the infield as things stand, but a complicated positional fit and the presence of impact prospects at Triple-A nearing their big league debut would complicate any such acquisitions.

Should the club stand pat on the infield, preserving the potential star power of Casas and leaving the door open for Mayer and/or Campbell to step in at second base this year? Should the club deal Casas in order to guarantee that there’s room for both a top prospect and an impact addition on the infield, despite the questions regarding Casas’s current value? Or should the Red Sox push their chips in and sign an impact player while keeping Casas in the fold, regardless of the awkward positional fit and the risk of blocking impact prospects? Have your say in the poll below:

Where Will Jack Flaherty End Up?

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If there’s been one defining characteristic of the 2024-25 offseason so far (aside from Juan Soto’s record-shattering contract), it’s that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. On the heels of a 2023-24 offseason that saw top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery linger on the market until the calendar flipped to March, right-hander Michael Wacha kicked things off by re-upping with the Royals before free agency started and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since then. After right-hander Corbin Burnes reached a deal with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar flipped to January.

Perhaps the biggest exception to that is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #8 free agent (fourth among starters) at the outset of the winter as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. At the time, we predicted Flaherty would land a five-year, $115MM pact in free agency. That prediction at least seems to have ended up in the right ballpark, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between the winter’s robust market for pitching and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer thanks to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a strong chance of reaching that sort of deal.

On the other hand, however, it’s worth noting that there are some signs the market for pitching has begun to cool. Burnes’s deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a strong average annual value and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly knocks the net present value of the pact below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM pact for Burnes at the outset of the winter, so while even that diminished net present value is more-or-less in line with expectations headed into the offseason, the deal in some ways pales in comparison to the one signed by Max Fried earlier in the winter and certainly falls short of the righty’s reported asking price of $245MM.

If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool somewhat, it’s possible that the market for Flaherty could start to fizzle out when the start of Spring Training games draws near. After all, we need only look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how a pitcher’s market can collapse once they don’t have enough time left to have a typical Spring Training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to enjoy a fairly robust market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been connected to the right-hander in recent days.

The Blue Jays and Giants have both been connected to the majority of the offseason’s high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about its desire to land impact talent this winter. Toronto was notably among the apparent finalists for Burnes before he signed in Arizona, and while the Giants were also strongly connected to Burnes there’s been some indications in the aftermath of his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco is more focused on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants have been attached to first baseman Pete Alonso, it’s possible that the club’s interest in a pitcher of Flaherty’s caliber is more as a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they desire. There’s a possibility that a similar situation could play out with the Blue Jays, as well. The club is known to have extended an offer to outfielder Anthony Santander already, and reporting earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget.

It’s possible that the Tigers fall into a similar boat. While the club certainly has the payroll flexibility to make multiple significant multi-year additions if they so desire, president of baseball operations Scott Harris has seemed to be hesitant about making significant multi-year commitments this winter, instead opting to land Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres on one-year deals. That hasn’t stopped them from engaging in the markets of some big-time free agents, but with Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson helping to anchor a young rotation it’s easy to imaging the club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a nine-figure deal to a player this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman Alex Bregman and also appears to be in the mix for Santander.

Two clubs that have been generally focused on pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore has already added Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters that isn’t in desperate need of another arm. With that being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and with 2023’s staff ace Kyle Bradish expected to miss at least the first half of 2025 it’s fair to think the club would benefit from adding a player of Flaherty’s caliber. To that end, they’ve seemingly remained on the periphery of his market as they continue their search for upgrades even after last week’s deal for Morton.

As for Chicago, they in some ways appear to be the best fit for Flaherty’s services. The Cubs appear to be mostly set on offense after adding Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly; while there’s potentially room at third base for another bat, they haven’t been closely connected to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospect Matt Shaw as a potential Opening Day starter at the position. There’s been plenty of buzz about them adding to their pitching staff, however, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently described another rotation addition as “inevitable” for the club, whether that’s a move to improve depth or bringing a more impactful piece into the fold. Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that while the Cubs have engaged with Flaherty, they were feeling a bit squeamish about his asking price at that point.

There’s some incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a large number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Given his unique situation as a potential front-of-the-rotation piece who can be had for nothing more than a minor league deal (and a hefty portion of a club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine a number of pitching-hungry clubs focusing their attention squarely on Sasaki while he’s available. The right-hander’s decision is due by January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case a club that misses out on Sasaki either steps up their offer or enters the fray as a new potential suitor.

In the meantime, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a “mystery team” swoop in and get a deal done? Is the right-hander going to land a deal within the ballpark of MLBTR’s prediction? Will he fall short of, or perhaps exceed, expectations? Have your say in the polls below.

Where Will Alex Bregman End Up?

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December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list come off the board. Left-hander Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the final day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Max Fried (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, and Corbin Burnes (#2) snuck in a deal with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 came to a close. That leaves just one free agent in the top six on the board as we turn towards 2025: infielder Alex Bregman, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #3 free agent at the outset of the winter back in November.

Over his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman has made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star, and a winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t managed to recapture the 8-win form he flashed at his peak in the years since then, he’s remained a well above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. An average of four-plus wins a year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently connected to Bregman this winter, while other suitors of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It’s a market that seems fairly robust, with multiple big market clubs interested.

With that being said, however, Bregman’s leverage in free agency may not be as strong as it was even a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was naturally the incumbent Astros, but a reunion between the sides appears to be off the table at this point as they’ve since signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover the infield corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are seemingly distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reporting last week threw cold water on the possibility of the club landing either Bregman in free agency or Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado via trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane somewhat in recent weeks. One such team could be the Tigers, who were reportedly becoming more serious about their pursuit of Bregman as recently as last week… but signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t outright preclude the Tigers from signing Bregman as well given their wide-open payroll outlook and the club’s relatively unsettled third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Tigers brass might have otherwise felt to add Bregman.

Another potential wild card who may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly has interest in him earlier this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club is likely to be done with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly thereafter by Philadelphia swinging a trade to land left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies would likely need to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.

Still, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clear fits for his services. The Red Sox have been among the teams most frequently discussed in the rumor mill this winter after taking a relative backseat in recent years. While rumored pursuits of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes have not yielded fruit to this point, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority going forward this winter figures to be adding a righty bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while also offering some balance against the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly,  so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been frequently connected to him this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize a reunion with first baseman Pete Alonso over adding Bregman, who would slot in at third base and kick youngster Mark Vientos over to first while likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in the event that they’re unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez to the club’s infield would mean that signing Bregman likely pushes Ernie Clement to the bench (at least barring a trade of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the sort of middle-of-the-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price tag may be giving some teams pause about more aggressively pursuing him. The infielder has seemingly been on the hunt for a $200MM deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction prior to the start of the offseason was that he’d land a seven-year $182MM deal. It’s a price that seemingly made both the Astros and Yankees squeamish in their pursuits of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs are hoping to land Bregman on a deal closer to the six years and $156MM Houston reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with opt-outs similar to the one Carlos Correa signed when he departed Houston a few winters ago, they’ll likely have to wait out his market until closer to the beginning of Spring Training. And the possibility of a “mystery team” swooping in to land Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week) cannot be ruled out, either.

How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he appears to be seeking, or wind up regretting turning down Houston’s reported $156MM offer?

Where Will Corbin Burnes End Up?

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With Blake Snell and Max Fried off the board, Corbin Burnes stands alone at the top of the pitching market. There was some thought that the former Cy Young winner might sign within a day or two of Fried agreeing to an eight-year term at the Winter Meetings. That hasn’t happened, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if Burnes signs before league activity goes quiet with the holidays next week.

Thus far, the starting pitching class has outperformed expectations. That’s most true of Fried, whom few would’ve foreseen getting eight years or handily beating $200MM at the start of the offseason. With Fried securing $218MM, how much should one project upwards on Burnes? Every free agent projection would’ve had Burnes above Fried when the offseason got underway. Fried money feels like a floor for Burnes, whom MLBTR predicted for seven years and $200MM just six weeks ago.

That said, the Yankees and Mets were two of the most obvious on-paper fits at the start of the offseason. The Yankees can safely be ruled out after the Fried deal. The Mets are still in the market for starting pitching and have the payroll room to lurk as a threat on Burnes even after landing Juan Soto. Yet it seems the Mets’ focus for starting pitching has been on the middle tiers. They added Frankie Montas and converted Clay Holmes to the rotation, preferring more affordable upside plays than a quick strike for any of free agency’s top three arms. They’re reportedly still interested in re-signing Sean Manaea, which would very likely close the door on a Burnes acquisition.

Recent rumors have most prominently connected Burnes to a few teams: the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and (to a lesser extent) the Orioles. Boston is still engaged in the rotation market after landing Garrett Crochet last week. Trading for Crochet leaves them with ample payroll space — the former White Sox staff ace is projected for a meager $2.9MM arbitration salary — but could indicate that the Sox weren’t keen on the climbing cost for free agent starting pitching.

The Giants would benefit greatly from an ace they could plug alongside Logan Webb in the rotation to replace Snell’s production. Yet San Francisco has already made a pair of big investments ($151MM on the Matt Chapman extension, $182MM for Willy Adames) within the past few months. Does ownership have interest in a deal that should easily exceed those already significant contracts?

Depending on how one feels about the Andrés Giménez trade, it’s debatable whether the Blue Jays have made a splash acquisition this offseason. They were heavily involved on Soto and Fried but watched both players head elsewhere. Their front office could be most motivated to land a marquee free agent, but they’re also faced with some payroll questions. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote last week that the Jays landing Burnes “doesn’t seem especially likely,” suggesting the organization could prefer to focus on a bat as its biggest addition while looking for a cheaper rebound target on the rotation front.

Maybe that opens the opportunity for the incumbent Orioles to make a push. GM Mike Elias has said that the ownership change has allowed the O’s front office to explore the top of the rotation market. (They reportedly were involved on Snell, in particular.) Still, it’s fair to take a “believe it when I see it” approach for Baltimore. The O’s have brought up spending since David Rubenstein purchased the franchise in April. They took on Zach Eflin’s $18MM salary in a deadline trade with the Rays and signed Tyler O’Neill for three years and $49.5MM last week. Yet neither investment is close to what it’d take to retain Burnes.

How will the Burnes situation play out? Will there be a late push by a mystery team to land him, and how much will it take? Is he soon to be the latest beneficiary of a bullish rotation market, or is the number of teams willing to make a $200MM+ investment drying up?

 

 

What Should The Padres Do With Luis Arraez?

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One year removed from an offseason that saw the Padres radically alter the direction of their franchise by paring down on payroll and trading superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego once again finds itself in something of a financial pickle. The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected for a payroll just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax payroll of $244M, just above the first threshold.

That leaves the club likely looking to pare down payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they’ll surely be hoping to make additions to the team in spite of those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club parts ways with to reduce payroll will surely create new holes that need to be filled, leaving A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a bit of a pickle.

One avenue the Padres could use to reduce payroll this year runs through Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old back in May, and he generally played fairly well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his career. A contact savant who has managed to reduce his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time during his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been attractive enough to clubs that both the Marlins and Padres have given up significant packages to land him in recent years.

That preternatural knack for contact is held back by Arraez’s lackluster plate discipline causing his walk rate to decline steadily alongside his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power, however. Both of those flaws were on full display in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which both ranked third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While it’s possible that the thumb injury Arraez played through this year before undergoing surgery in October could have impacted him in the power department, but even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year landed just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster defense that largely limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why both the Twins and Marlins were willing to part ways with him on the trade market in recent years.

Could Arraez be dealt for the third year in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the simplest path to slashing a significant chunk of payroll for the Padres. Cease and King are both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, but neither reaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently penciled in for. Clearing that money off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to around $195MM. While San Diego would then need to replace Arraez at first base headed into next year, a number of bats at the position including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo figure to be available for a relative bargain this winter, meaning it should be fairly easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup and still come out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to land Arraez the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 offseason trade candidates list.

With that being said, a trade of Arraez isn’t the only option at the Padres’ disposal as they look for ways to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he would be open to an extension with the club this winter as he stares down his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have regularly worked out contracts that offer the club additional financial flexibility in the short-term and the player additional security in the long term in the past. That includes deals that comes together just before a player is due to reach free agency, such as the extensions they’ve offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.

If Arraez were amenable to it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres back-loading the deal to reduce his 2025 salary significantly and/or offering a lower AAV over a longer term in order to duck under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year deal worth $60MM would come with an AAV of just $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM of its expected luxury tax bill for 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM salaries over the rest of the contract, that would offer the Padres nearly $10MM in savings on their 2025 payroll as compared to his arbitration salary- a figure not that different than what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.

Those numbers are purely hypothetical, of course, and it’s certainly possible Arraez would not want to lock into a deal with such a relatively low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan of extending Arraez, either; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a major help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in a longer-term view it simply kicks the can down the road to next season when Arraez’s salary would shoot up by $6MM and could leave the club in the same financial jam they find themselves in now.

If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, attempt to extend him long-term, or simply play out the season and cut payroll elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!

Trade Candidate: Brandon Lowe

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When Brandon Lowe was healthy in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably the best second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led primary second basemen in home runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over those two seasons. Unfortunately, he has missed significant time with various injuries in each of the three years since. When he takes the field, however, Lowe is still a highly productive player. He launched 21 homers in 107 games this past season while producing a 123 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked in the 85th percentile of major league hitters.

Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM team option for Lowe’s services in 2025, rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free agency. The Rays might be notoriously close-fisted, but still, there was little doubt they’d exercise the option. A net $9.5MM is a bargain for a player like Lowe, even if he sits out a third of the season with injuries once again. That being said, a $10.5MM salary puts Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the highest paycheck on the club next year. To put it another way, it’s approximately 12% of the team’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s more than fair to wonder if the Rays would rather spread that money across multiple roster spots rather than give it all to one injury-prone player. In other words, it’s fair to wonder if Lowe will be wearing a new uniform by Opening Day next March.

Tampa Bay has a long track of trading veteran players once their salaries start to increase, even when the team is still planning to contend. As the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst finish since 2017, and coming off a season in which they sold big at the trade deadline, it seems even more believable that they would consider trading Lowe. Furthermore, the Rays have multiple internal options who could replace Lowe in the lineup (even if they can’t necessarily replace his production). One of Junior Caminero or José Caballero could potentially slide over to second base, while Christopher Morel could slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Walls could replace Caballero at shortstop. Former top prospect Curtis Mead is another infielder to keep in mind.

Then again, the fact that the Rays didn’t trade Lowe at last year’s deadline could be an indication that they’d like to hold onto him for 2025. After all, they might be cheap, but they also love a good value play. If the Rays shop Lowe around and come to the conclusion that he is severely undervalued around the league, they might prefer to hold onto him.

Back in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, “I don’t think the industry and even our own fans understand the impact [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he might be hesitant to part with his All-Star second baseman. Neander recently expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most valuable” as a second baseman but that the team could continue to give him some time at first base and DH next season to have his powerful bat in the lineup as often as possible.

It’s also worth mentioning that Lowe has another team option for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which means Tampa Bay could keep him around for the start of next season and still have the flexibility to trade him at a later date. What’s more, the Rays have numerous other trade candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the only player they can flip if they’re facing pressure to cut payroll in light of the damage to Tropicana Field or the team’s current lack of a broadcast deal.

First baseman Yandy Díaz and closer Pete Fairbanks are two of the top 10 players on MLBTR’s list of the top 35 trade candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will be making $10MM next year, and he has a $12MM team option for the following season. His contract also includes a $1MM trade assignment bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is set to collect $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2026. One more name to keep in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the same star power as Díaz or even Fairbanks, but he has proven himself to be a capable mid-rotation starter over the last year and a half. He made just $1.85MM this past season, but he is projected to earn close to a $3MM raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Another factor to consider is the market for second baseman this offseason, both in terms of free agents and trade candidates. Only two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One could easily imagine why teams would prefer Lowe over either of them, especially on such a team-friendly contract. However, things could get more complicated if any teams are seriously pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a primary second baseman as recently as 2023, while both Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to switch positions.

As for the trade market, second basemen who could be on the move include Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s top trade candidates list), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). However, none of those players seem particularly likely to be dealt, and they all fill different niches than Lowe. Funnily enough, all four bat left-handed, but Lowe is the only one who offers proven, middle-of-the-order power against both left- and right-handed pitching.

So, do you think the Rays will hold onto Lowe this winter? Or will they have a new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say in the poll below!

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Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade A Catcher?

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For a few years now, the Pirates have had a couple of catchers as two of their top prospects. Henry Davis was taken with the first overall pick in the 2021 draft and has been under the microscope ever since. Endy Rodríguez was acquired in the January 2021 three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to the Padres and was declared Pittsburgh’s top prospect by Baseball America going into 2023.

There’s now a third name in the mix as Joey Bart had his long-awaited breakout in 2024. Selected second overall by the Giants in 2018, he struggled to establish himself at the big league level in San Francisco and had exhausted his option years by the end of 2023. He held onto his roster spot until the end of spring training 2024 but was designated for assignment at that time, getting flipped to the Pirates for minor league righty Austin Strickland.

Bart missed some time due to injury this year but got into 80 games for the Bucs and hit 13 homers. He slashed .265/.337/.462 overall for a wRC+ of 121, indicating he was 21% better than league average. His defense wasn’t highly regarded but that kind of offense behind the plate is hard to come by and was especially valuable on a Pittsburgh team that found it difficult to score runs. Among catchers with at least 250 plate appearances, Bart’s 121 wRC+ was fourth behind the Contreras brothers and Iván Herrera. With the same plate appearance threshold, he led all Pirate hitters in that stat.

Now there is theoretically a logjam with the three guys, as most clubs only roster two catchers at a time. The designated hitter spot probably doesn’t help, with Andrew McCutchen likely to be in there. He’s technically heading into free agency now but he and the Pirates seem to have an agreement whereby they can keep reupping with each other until he’s ready to retire. He’s now 38 years old but was one of the club’s only good hitters in 2024. For guys with 250 plate appearances, only Bart, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and McCutchen were above average by wRC+.

Rodríguez debuted in 2023 and didn’t hit much, with a .220/.284/.328 batting line and 65 wRC+ in his first 204 plate appearances. However, his defense was universally praised and he has hit better in the minors. He has slashed .295/.383/.506 on the farm overall and .285/.362/.450 at the Triple-A level. In December of last year, he underwent surgery on the UCL and flexor tendon in his throwing elbow and missed the entire big league season in 2024. He started a rehab assignment in mid-September and played in a handful of minor league games, suggesting he should be good to go for 2025.

Davis has had a more infuriating career so far, as he has destroyed minor league pitching but struggled badly in the majors. In 377 major league plate appearances thus far, he has struck out in 30.2% of them and hit .191/.283/.307 for a wRC+ of 61. But since the start of 2023, he has a 13.7% walk rate and 21.5% strikeout rate in the minors, helping him produce a combined .302/.424/.550 line and 158 wRC+.

All of this will lead to some interesting decisions for the Bucs. Bart isn’t great defensively but is a big bat on a club that didn’t have many this year. Rodríguez has played some other positions but a big part of his appeal is his strong work behind the plate. Davis has also dabbled in playing the outfield but the offensive expectations are even higher at that position than at catcher, so moving him into the outfield mix would put even more pressure on his bat.

Davis and Rodríguez still have options, so it’s possible that the Pirates could keep all three, with two of them in the majors and one in Triple-A. But Rodríguez is already a solid defender by big league standards and has done plenty of hitting in the minors, making it fairly wasteful to have him back down there. Davis doesn’t have much left to prove on the farm with his big numbers there. Arguably, the best thing for him is to see more big league pitching and get accustomed to it.

Another path they could choose is trading one of these three. Doing so would sacrifice some depth but Jason Delay is also on the 40-man roster and is still optionable. But there are also arguments against trading each of the three.

Davis might feel expendable at the moment with his relatively weaker defense and the fact that he hasn’t put it together offensively just yet, but the path of Bart is a cautionary tale. The Giants would surely love a mulligan on letting him go and the Pirates are probably aware that they could end up on the other side of such a trade. Given that Davis was such a highly regarded prospect, it’s not hard to imagine them flipping him and quickly regretting it when they have to watch him have his breakout elsewhere.

It wouldn’t be an ideal time to trade Rodríguez either, as he’s coming off a completely lost season. With some health and a step forward at the plate, he could improve his value tremendously this year and down the line.

Selling high on Bart might be appealing because they grabbed him at such a low point and saw him take a big step forward. But as mentioned, the club had so few productive hitters in 2024 and subtracting one of them would be a risky ploy.

Though there’s potential downsides with these considerations, the Pirates might think about it anyway. They generally don’t spend a ton of money in free agency but need to upgrade the roster somehow. General manager Ben Cherington has had his job since November of 2019 and the club has been stuck below .500 since then. They were rebuilding for the first few years of his tenure but expectations have been raised with some flashes of winning baseball in the past two campaigns. Unfortunately, they finished with a 76-86 record both last year and this year, perhaps leading to a bit of desperation in getting over the hump in 2025.

It’s possible that the free agent catching market could work in their favor this winter. The best available backstops are guys like Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly and Kyle Higashioka. Jansen is coming off a nightmare season and is a big question mark right now. Higashioka is coming off a career year but will turn 35 in April, making it fair to wonder if he just peaked. Kelly has been inconsistent in his career and more okay than great even when at his best. The Cardinals will likely make Willson Contreras available on the trade market but he has a pricey contract and is about to turn 33 years old. Christian Vázquez is in a similar situation to Contreras as a pricey veteran but with the offense and defense flipped, as Vázquez is a glove-first guy and Contreras bat-first.

Several clubs could use help behind the plate, with the Rays, Padres, Nationals, Cubs, Reds, Phillies and Braves just some of the possibilities. All three of Pittsburgh’s catchers are cheap, with Davis and Rodríguez still in their pre-arb years and Bart just getting to arbitration for the first time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bart for a modest $1.8MM salary in 2025, not much above next year’s $760K league minimum. Those affordable salaries would naturally appeal to clubs with budgetary or competitive balance tax concerns.

What do you think the Pirates should do with their many catching options? Have your say in the poll below!

Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Club Option On Eugenio Suárez

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Once the World Series wraps up, teams and players will have five days to decide on options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. One of the more interesting cases is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him via a $15MM club option or go for a $2MM buyout instead.

There was a time a few months ago when it seemed a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. But after a torrid second half, it would now be surprising if they didn’t pick up the option.

Suárez has been a very streaky player in his career overall and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season saw him hit 49 long balls, but it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky home run totals around the league. His strikeout rate ticked up to 28.5% that year after being in the 23-25% range in prior seasons.

The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, leading to a rough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a move that was largely viewed as the M’s taking on his salary as a way of acquiring Jesse Winker.

But Suárez went on to have a huge bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 home runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His home run total dipped to 22 last year but his .232/.323/.391 line still led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above average. He was striking out over 30% of the time but still proving to be useful overall. He also improved his glovework while with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved still viewed him as a subpar defender at third but his marks in 2022-23 were better than during time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Average had long viewed him around average but gave him a huge +12 grade in 2023.

It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of last year. At that time, Suárez had one guaranteed year left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned club option was there as well.

His ’24 campaign eventually mirrored the up-and-down nature of his career overall. He was brutal in the first half, to the point that there were rumors by early June of the club hoping for a trade. A few days later, manager Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some playing time to infielder Blaze Alexander. At the end of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout rate and 66 wRC+.

But the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fire, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month ago. In the final three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, still above league average but an improvement for him. He hit 24 home runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of the ten best qualified hitters in the majors in that stretch.

Though he’s done it with plenty of strikeouts and some rough patches, Suárez has managed to be a solid contributor for three straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above replacement in each of the three most recent campaigns. Despite his awful first half in 2024, he still got his fWAR total to 3.8 by season’s end.

A net $13MM decision on a player who can produce like that should be an easy call, but there’s at least an argument for the Diamondbacks going in a different direction. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s career and most recent season, perhaps the Snakes would like to jump off the rollercoaster while they have a chance. Suárez is now 33 years old, turning 34 next July, and there will have to come a time where he can’t keep walking this tightrope.

The Diamondbacks could prefer to turn third base over to someone else within the organization. That someone was Alexander earlier this year but he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He also struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% rate in 51 Triple-A games while producing league-average offense at that level, making him a risky bet as an everyday MLB third baseman next year.

There’s also Jordan Lawlar, who is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He has mostly played shortstop in his career but has dabbled at third base lately, perhaps due to the Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at short. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and accumulated a small amount of major league playing time, so perhaps they could let him take over the hot corner.

However, that was also the case a year ago. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 but struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 big league games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t ready to hand him a major league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.

In 2024, Lawlar could have perhaps earned the gig while Suárez was struggling but injuries got in the way. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb during spring training, requiring surgery. That kept him out of action until May, but then hamstring injuries held him back in the summer. He only played 23 minor league games this year around those injury issues and didn’t play in the majors.

That leaves the Snakes in the same position with Lawlar as they were one year ago. He is surely still viewed as a key part of their future but hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors. One year ago, the club decided they needed a more established option at third and went with Suárez.

Perhaps they will decide to take the same approach in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They could look to non-Suárez options for that job if they want, but the free agent market doesn’t have an answer for them. Of the available third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear top option. After Bregman, the top options for the hot corner are more bench/utility types like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the trade market, the Cardinals might make Nolan Arenado available in their reset year but he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that situation.

The Diamondbacks won’t be the most logical landing spot for Bregman if they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Perhaps they want Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at short, with the latter moving to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a fairly regular designated hitter. Even so, they don’t usually win the bidding on top free agents so it’s unlikely Bregman would be part of such a plan.

That weak market for third baseman could give Suárez extra appeal as a trade candidate, so perhaps the Snakes will consider making him available, either before or after picking up the option. Clubs with borderline options often look into making deals as the decision moment arrives. Last November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers a few days before his option decision was due, with Detroit picking up the option a few days after acquiring him.

Surely there will be some club that misses out on Bregman and looks for backup plans, which could lead to them fielding some calls on Suárez. But the tepid market cuts both ways, as the Diamondbacks would then be limited in what they could do to replace Suárez, meaning they would be putting a lot of faith in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.

There are arguments for each path. Suárez might be the most straightforward answer at third base for the next year, giving appeal to simply sticking with him. But on the other hand, cutting ties from a risky and streaky player who is entering his mid-30s also has appeal, as they were trying to trade him or bench him as of a few months ago and that money could be redirected to another part of the roster. Perhaps the trade market could help the club find an upgrade while also saving a few bucks for other moves.

What do you think the Snakes should do? Have your say in the poll below!

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