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Nick Martinez’s Looming Opt-Out Decision

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When the 2021-22 offseason commenced, Nick Martinez wasn’t even on the radar for most MLB fans. The right-hander had stumbled through an uninspiring four-year run with the Rangers from 2014-17, and while a big showing in Japan put him back on the radar of MLB clubs, it was still a shock to see him sign the 14th-largest contract of any pitcher last offseason. Martinez not only secured an eye-opening four-year term and $25.5MM guarantee from the Padres — he was also promised the opportunity to opt out of his contract after each season of the deal.

It’s an upside-laden contract for the player. Annual opt-outs of that nature tend to go to coveted free agents settling for shorter-term deals than they might otherwise prefer (e.g. Carlos Correa in Minnesota). It’s not an entirely new concept — Scott Kazmir got that treatment from the Dodgers as far back as 2015 when signing his three-year, $48MM deal — and it’s one that Padres president of baseball ops has now used to lure in a pair of players he played a role in signing and developing during his time with Texas; Jurickson Profar’s three-year, $21MM contract also contained an opt-out after each of the first two seasons.

Nick Martinez | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Martinez’s four-year deal pays him a $2MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary in 2022. All three of his player options are valued at $6.5MM, and he’d receive a $1.5MM buyout if he decided to turn an option down and test free agency. In other words, Martinez’s upcoming option effectively is a net $18MM decision. The signing bonus, 2022 salary and option buyout are all but banked. The question for him is one of whether he can top $18MM in free agency this winter.

It’s fair to question whether that can be called a given. On the surface, Martinez’s 3.22 ERA in 100 1/3 innings has to be considered a roaring success. He entered the 2022 season with a career 4.77 ERA in 415 1/3 innings, all coming in that prior run with the Rangers — one that concluded with consecutive ERAs north of 5.50.

At the same time, Martinez hasn’t exactly dominated opponents. His 20.9% strikeout rate is below the 22.3% league average, while his 8.6% walk rate is ever so slightly higher than the 8.2% league average. Martinez induces grounders at an above-average clip (46.7% compared to 42.2%) but also surrenders home runs more frequently than the average pitcher (1.25 HR/9 compared to 1.10 HR/9).

The role — or rather, the roles — that Martinez has filled this year don’t necessarily help his cause, either. He opened the year as the Padres’ fifth starter but was part of a six-man rotation by May and was moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June, after 10 solid but unspectacular starts (52 1/3 innings, 4.30 ERA, 20.4 K%, 11.7 BB%).

In the bullpen, things have gone better. Martinez has tallied 48 1/3 innings in relief and worked to a 2.05 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate in the ’pen is only moderately higher than it was out of the rotation, but to his credit, Martinez’s 4.7% walk rate as a reliever is miles better than it was coming out of the rotation. (Whether teams deem that to be sustainable is another open question.) He’s picked up eight saves and six holds for the Friars, but early on, the majority of his work came in lower-leverage situations. Even three of those eight saves were of the three-inning variety in long relief. He’s been used in later, higher-leverage spots as the summer has worn on, but Martinez will likely finish the season having spent only a couple months working in the critical leverage spots for which teams tend to pay top dollar.

There are other elements to consider, too. Martinez rates well in terms of his overall average exit velocity, yielding just an 86.6 mph average to his opponents. That checks into the 87th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also boasts above-average spin on his fastball and curveball alike, and Martinez has excelled at inducing chases on pitches off the plate. However, Martinez’s 37.2% hard-hit rate is barely better than the league-average, and the 8.2% barrel rate he’s yielded is well shy of league average (32nd percentile). Basically, when he does allow contact, he’s been much more prone to loud contact than one would expect when looking the mean results.

Martinez’s case is an interesting one. He didn’t thrive in a rotation role, even when facing hitters the first time through the order (.282/.311/.447). As is typically the case, those numbers worsened the second and third time he faced an opponent in a game. He’s been excellent the first trip through the lineup as a reliever, however (.201/.261/.289), even though he didn’t completely overhaul his pitch arsenal when shifting to bullpen work. At a time when relievers and even some starters are gravitating toward focusing on two plus pitches, Martinez’s approach is uncommon: he’s the rare reliever who deploys a five-pitch mix (four-seamer, cutter, sinker, curve, changeup).

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote a few weeks ago that Martinez appears unlikely to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract, as it’s a stretch to envision him topping that remaining guarantee. There’s merit to that line of thinking. Martinez was unexciting in a brief run as a starter, has impressed but not dominated as a reliever, and doesn’t have the type of elite velocity, spin rate or whiff rate that serve as the portent to a breakout.

On the spectrum of outcomes, his 2022 season hasn’t been a best-case scenario but has been better than average. A 90th percentile outcome or better might have seen Martinez play a prominent role and pitch toward the top of the San Diego rotation; giving 10 serviceable starts before moving to the ’pen and slowly climbing into a leverage role has to rank somewhere in the 60th to 75th percentile of outcomes. The Padres are surely happy with the year-one results.

Martinez’s decision is made difficult because the very nature of the contract he signed sat outside the norms of conventional contract structures for typical MLB free agents. Generally speaking, free agents very rarely sign three- and four-year deals with average annual values in the $6-7MM range. Even back-end starters will crack the $8-10MM range on one- and two-year deals. It’s not uncommon to see a setup reliever sign a multi-year deal in this AAV range, but most recent examples have been of the two-year variety.

If Martinez hopes to beat the net $18MM on his contract, he’d need a team to value him in the $10MM range over a two-year span or an $8-9MM range over a three-year span. In the case of the former, that’d likely mean a team believing he can function as a starter on a full-time basis. The latter structure is typically reserved for some of the market’s most highly desirable relievers (e.g. Kendall Graveman’s three-year deal with the White Sox, Joe Kelly’s three-year deal with the Dodgers). It’s hard to include Martinez in that same category.

Still, there’s a logical disconnect between the idea that the market produced a $25.5MM guarantee for Martinez a year ago, when he was a total wild card, but might not produce better than an $18MM guarantee now that he’s proven himself capable of providing legitimate value to a contending MLB club. The source of that disconnect may simply be the allure of the unknown. There may yet be room for Martinez to take his game to another level, but some of the perceived upside stemming from the 1.60 ERA, 25% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate he posted in his final NPB campaign has perhaps dwindled. That’s not to say he’s not a valuable big league pitcher — he certainly has been — but now that he’s more of an established commodity, that same upside might not be baked into a potential new contract.

Suffice it to say, Martinez’s opt-out looks like something of a borderline case. He can fill multiple roles, has shined out of the ’pen, held his own in the rotation but hasn’t dominated opponents at any step along the way. He’d need to be confident teams will view him as at least $9-10MM per year pitcher in order to opt out, because even though a $7-8MM AAV over a three-year term would be a win for him, that’s tougher to come by when you’re selling your age-32 through age-34 seasons.

If he sticks with the Padres, they’ll be happy to have him. Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are free agents at season’s end, and the Friars traded MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal. Their 2023 rotation depth is not as sound as this year’s was and is. In the bullpen, each of Robert Suarez, Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen can become a free agent. Martinez provides some valuable substance to both groups. The $18MM question is whether that value is significant enough that he’ll again test his luck on the open market.

We can close this one out with a poll…

MLBTR Poll: Justin Verlander’s Next Contract

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Last winter, Max Scherzer hit the open market as one of the more unique free agents in recent memory. While most baseball players, and athletes of all kinds, generally decline in quality as they get farther from their 20s, Scherzer was 37 and still playing at an elite level. Though last year was his age-36 season, he turned 37 years old on July 27th. (A player’s age on July 1 is generally considered to be their age for the year.) In that year, he threw 179 1/3 innings and somehow registered a career-best 2.46 ERA. Though he got ground balls at a below-average 33.5% clip, his 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than the mean. He also added 16 1/2 innings of 2.16 ERA ball in the postseason, just for a little icing on the cake.

So, how do you value an elite pitcher who is 37 years old? The answer from the market was high salary over a short term. Scherzer received a three-year deal covering his age-37 through age-39 seasons, with Scherzer turning 40 in the last year of the deal. The deal comes with a $130MM guarantee, spread out evenly with a $43.33MM salary in each year. That AAV shattered the previous record, which was Gerrit Cole’s $36MM. Scherzer can also opt out of the deal after the second year.

This winter might feature a similar but perhaps more extreme free agent. Justin Verlander threw only six innings in 2020 before Tommy John surgery wiped out the rest of that season and all of 2021. After returning to health, he held a showcase for interested teams, eventually re-signing for the Astros. The contract guaranteed him $25MM for 2022, despite having barely pitched for two years. It also came with a $25MM player option for 2023, conditional on Verlander reaching 130 innings pitched this year. Verlander has already surpassed that mark, allowing him to cash in another $25MM salary next year.

However, he’s pitching so well this season that he’s likely to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger payday. Through exactly 130 innings coming into tonight, he has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 37.4% ground ball rate. The strikeouts aren’t as high as Scherzer’s were last season, but his ERA is significantly better, with a lower walk rate and better ground ball rate.

Verlander is older than Scherzer, having turned 39 years old in February. However, if he got an annual average value of $25MM after two lost seasons, what would he get after a Cy Young-caliber campaign, even if he is one year older? It will be a fascinating and unprecedented experiment. Verlander could rightly ask for a similar AAV to Scherzer, in the $40-45MM range, depending on how strong he finishes. But how much term will teams be willing to commit to a player about to enter his age-40 season? How many teams will be willing to go to two years? Will any go to three like they did for Scherzer?

But then what does Verlander want? Would he prefer something like a one-year, $50MM deal or try to land around $40MM annually spread out over three years? Verlander has previously said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s, perhaps pointing towards the latter option, but we can’t really know.

MLBTR readers, what do you think? Below are two polls, one for what kind of term you think Verlander will get and another for what kind of guarantee. Let us know your thoughts.

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Poll: Has Your Lockout Prediction Changed Recently?

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Just over a week ago, MLBTR ran a poll asking for your predictions on when the season would start. The most optimistic option, that the season would start on March 31st as scheduled, was selected by just over 16% of respondents. The next most optimistic choice, that the season would begin between April 1st and 15th, garnered just over 18% of the vote. That means that almost two-thirds of voters expected a delay of two weeks or more.

Whether the situation has meaningfully changed in that time is a matter of opinion. For those on the pessimistic side of the spectrum, they could point to the fact that the two sides remain far apart in their respective positions, the most recent meeting lasting just 15 minutes and MLB announcing that Spring Training games won’t begin until March 5th at the earliest.

For those looking for glimmers of hope, they could point to the fact that both sides are planning to meet with greater frequency, perhaps daily, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. Maybe the stall tactics have been exhausted and the time for serious engagement has begun. Ben Nicholson-Smith hears that the MLB is willing to be flexible on some issues and that the MLBPA has said that there won’t be expanded playoffs if a full season is not played. Given that the owners are known to be seeking the extra revenue from those added playoff games, perhaps this ticking clock scenario will finally provide the urgency needed to make real progress.

Are the sleeves getting rolled up? Or is this all just for show? Is the ice about to crack? Or are we just seeing PR moves? After almost three months of mostly wasted time, can the next five years of baseball be ironed out in the next week or two?

What say you? Are you drowning in despair or does your hope spring eternal? Let us know in the poll below.

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Zack Greinke Sign?

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The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly in the early stages of the offseason. A few prominent starters remained unsigned heading into the lockout, though. Among them — Zack Greinke, whose market remains largely undefined.

Greinke is no longer the ace he was at his peak. The six-time All-Star is coming off a 4.16 ERA over 171 innings, his second straight season with an ERA a touch over 4.00. That’s still capable run prevention, but Greinke’s days of posting sub-3.00 marks are probably behind him. His swing-and-miss and strikeout rates regressed last year, and he dealt with some neck soreness down the stretch. Between his age and those trends, teams can’t reasonably expect Grienke to assume the role of Game 1 or Game 2 playoff starter next season.

That said, there aren’t many rotations he wouldn’t still upgrade. He’s still one of the game’s best command artists. Greinke has shown a knack for remaining successful even as his raw stuff has ticked down with age. Even if his production might now be closer to average on a rate basis, the former Cy Young Award winner has continued to soak up innings. He exceeded 200 frames each season from 2017-19, and he’s surpassed 150 innings every year since 2007 (excluding the shortened 2020 schedule).

Immediate contenders could certainly stand to plug Greinke into the middle or back of their starting staff. Rebuilding teams might view signing him as an opportunity to bring aboard a famously cerebral hurler with an elite track record as an example for their younger, controllable arms (although it remains to be seen if the 18-year MLB veteran would be open to signing with a team that doesn’t look like a surefire competitor).

To date, however, we’ve heard very little about where Greinke might end up. He’s not expected to re-sign with the Astros, a testament to their enviable collection of in-house rotation depth. Beyond that, there’s not been any substantive indication in which direction he might be leaning. At the start of the offseason, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that Greinke “(wanted) to continue pitching for an NL team.”

The rationale for that reported desire to return to the Senior Circuit is unclear. If it were about getting another chance to hit regularly — Grienke has won a pair of Silver Slugger Awards in his career — that’ll probably prove moot. Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association seem to have mutual interest in implementing a universal designated hitter in the next collective bargaining agreement. If that comes into play, then there’ll be no difference in rules between the leagues. If Greinke just prefers certain National League cities or ballparks and is indifferent about an opportunity to hit, then that could give NL suitors an upper hand.

It’s also at least worth contemplating the possibility Greinke moves on from playing entirely. Nightengale’s report suggests he was planning to continue his career as of a few months ago. He’s still an effective pitcher, even if he’s no longer elite. There’s been no indication he’s not planning to play in 2022, so him stepping away seems unlikely. But Greinke turned 38 years old in October, so one seemingly can’t definitively rule out the possibility he retires until he speaks publicly about his future or puts pen to paper on a new contract.

Where does the MLBTR readership think Greinke will be in 2022? Will he continue playing, and if so, where will he sign?

(poll link for app users)

 

Poll: Who Will Play First Base In The Bronx?

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Following the 2020 season, first base didn’t look like it’d be an area of concern for the Yankees for the next few years. Luke Voit led the Majors with 22 home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, turning in a stout .277/.338/.610 batting line that was 53 percent better than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. A series of injuries derailed much of Voit’s 2021 season, however, prompting the Yanks to trade for Anthony Rizzo at the deadline.

Fast forward several months, and Rizzo is a free agent, Voit is a possible trade candidate, and the Yankees have been linked to big-fish names like Oakland’s Matt Olson and even free agent Freddie Freeman, who has yet to put pen to paper on a new deal in Atlanta. Everyone’s wondering who’ll play shortstop at Yankee Stadium in 2022, but first base is a question mark in its own right, so let’s take a quick look at each of the most plausible possibilities.

Luke Voit: There’s certainly an argument for sticking with the status quo and giving Voit another go-around. Last year was blown up by a torn meniscus that required surgery, an oblique strain that wiped out another month, and then continued knee troubles in the season’s second half. Voit, who turned 31 just yesterday, managed just eight more plate appearances in 2021 than he did in the 60-game 2020 sprint.

When he was healthy, Voit was a solid hitter, slashing .239/.328/.437 (111 wRC+) with 11 long balls, seven doubles and a triple in 241 trips to the dish. However, he also saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-worst 30.7% as he struggled through those injuries, and that batting line is a far cry from his aforementioned dominance in 2020.

In the three seasons leading up to 2021, Voit batted a combined .278/.371/.541 with 58 home runs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 905 plate appearances. He grades out as a poor defender at first base, but it’s easier to overlook the glovework if he’s hitting like he did from 2018-20. If he’s hitting like he did in 2021, that defense becomes harder to hide. Voit is controlled three more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.4MM in 2022. He’s affordable and has plenty of upside with the bat — but there are red flags to consider as well. For his part, Voit told Dan Martin of the New York Post that he loves playing in New York and hopes to remain. He also acknowledged that a trade is possible.

DJ LeMahieu: The 33-year-old thrived with the 2019-20 Yankees, playing all over the infield and turning in a combined .336/.386/.536 showing with a tiny 12.7% strikeout rate. However, with a .268/.349/.362 batting line in 2021 (100 wRC+), LeMahieu had his own downturn at the plate this past season.

If LeMahieu were still hitting at his 2019-20 levels, that’d be more than enough offense even if he moved to first base on a full-time basis. If he’s “only” an average or slightly above-average hitter moving forward, then his versatility and ability to play other positions becomes more important.

The Yankees could still give LeMahieu the bulk of the work at first base in 2022, though it doesn’t seem like it’d be a top choice. It’s hard to see them doing so with Voit still on the roster, meaning they’d likely need to move Voit and spend the bulk of whatever resources they have remaining on other needs (shortstop, pitching, etc.).

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo had a big start in New York, but by the time the season had run its course, his overall offensive production as a Yankee looked pretty similar to Voit’s 2021 output: .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+). Rizzo was an offensive force with the Cubs from 2014-19, batting a collective .284/.388/.513 in that time and topping 30 home runs in four different seasons. He’s since settled in as more of a 20 to 25-homer threat who makes good contact (15.1% strikeout rate) and draws some walks but is no longer an MVP-caliber hitter.

Two points in Rizzo’s favor over Voit: he’d give the Yankees a left-handed bat to help further balance a lineup that skews heavily toward right-handed hitters, and he’s also generally considered to be a strong defender. Defensive metrics were down on Rizzo in 2021, but he still graded out better than Voit typically has. That’s also the only time in his career he’s ever drawn negative marks for his glovework at first base.

Rizzo would be a costlier option, even though his stock has dropped from the point at which the Cubs were offering him extensions to keep him beyond 2021. MLBTR predicted a three-year deal at a rate of $15MM per season heading into the offseason, and even that was in part due to some of the narrative building up Rizzo as a difference-making clubhouse presence and leader. Post-lockout, an even shorter deal can’t be completely ruled out. He’ll still cost quite a bit more than Voit, but he won’t break the bank relative to, say…

Freddie Freeman: Braves fans and pundits alike are still a bit surprised things have gotten to this point with Freeman, the homegrown Braves icon whom most onlookers considered a slam dunk to spend his entire career in Atlanta. It’s still wholly plausible that after a protracted set of contract negotiations, Freeman returns to anchor the lineup at Truist Park, settling in as a lifelong Brave. At the same time, there have been reports that the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps the Blue Jays could at least try to pry Freeman from Atlanta by offering the lengthier deal and/or weightier annual salary he’s thought to seek.

Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, shook off some early-season doldrums in 2021 and finished out the year with a pretty typical (for him) .300/.393/.503 slash through 695 plate appearances. These endpoints are completely arbitrary, so take them with a grain of salt, but on May 7, Freeman finished the day with a .195/.326/.407 slash. From that point forth he hit .324/.409/.526.

Freeman will turn 33 in September, so the always-prominent concerns about paying for a player’s decline phase exist here as well. It might take six years and an annual salary in the $30MM range to sign him (or at least a salary well north of $30MM on a five-year term). The Yankees obviously have the resources to do that — particularly if they take an affordable approach at shortstop, as has been rumored — but there’s plenty of long-term risk.

Matt Olson: Perhaps the most-speculated trade match of the entire offseason, Olson-to-the-Bronx makes a good deal of sense. He’s an elite fielding left-handed bat who broke out as one of the game’s most well-rounded offensive players in 2021. Always a 30-homer threat — he swatted 29 homers in 2018 and 36 in 2019 — Olson slashed his strikeout rate from 26.3% all the way to 16.8% this past season. He did so while maintaining a walk rate north of 13%, and the resulting .271/.371/.540 slash and 39 home runs were career-best marks.

The A’s control Olson through 2023, but he’s projected to earn $12MM in arbitration (via Swartz) at a time when the A’s are reportedly aiming to reduce payroll. He’d give the Yankees a clear upgrade for at least two years, coming with an affordable (for them) salary in both seasons. It’s always possible that the Yankees could look into a long-term deal in the aftermath of a trade, too.

That said, Olson’s going to come with one of the heftiest asking prices of any player on the trade market. Yankees fans are surely loath to even consider the possibility of including a headliner such as top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe, but any trade scenario involving Olson is probably going to come at a prospect cost that upsets many fans. Olson will (or at least certainly should) command multiple players from the top echelon of any team’s farm system.

—

Those are just a few possibilities for the Yankees, but they seem to be the most plausible paths for GM Brian Cashman and his staff to tread. After Freeman and Rizzo, the free-agent market doesn’t offer a clear everyday option at first base who’d be an upgrade over Voit and LeMahieu. There are other speculative trade candidates to consider (e.g. Dominic Smith, Josh Bell), but none who promise the impact and clear upgrade that Olson would bring to the fold.

Let’s open this up for readers to discuss and to take their best guess (link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users) …

Poll: Will The Season Start On Time?

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For the second time in three seasons, we’re faced with the possibility that Major League Baseball will fall shy of a full 162-game schedule. Unlike in 2020, when the truncated season was an inevitability due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential for missing games in 2022 is entirely of MLB and the MLBPA’s doing. The expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement wasn’t some secret, and a second contentious set of negotiations between the league and union has been widely expected for quite some time — particularly since return-to-play talks went about as poorly as one could possibly imagine in 2020.

While there was some talk of proactive negotiations at times, discussions were infrequent, at best. The MLBPA made a core economics proposal back in May. The league countered in August, suggesting — among other major changes — that free agency be linked directly to a player’s age (29.5 years, in MLB’s proposal). The MLBPA, looking to young stars like Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and many others who’ll reach free agency well before 29, considered age-based a non-starter. (The league’s proposal also contained a $100MM salary floor — but that came with a major reduction in the luxury-tax threshold, from the prior $210MM down to $180MM.)

A second iteration of the union’s economic plan was put forth on Nov. 5, with key points including a raised minimum salary, earlier arbitration, changes to the draft order (with an eye on eliminating tanking), changes the league’s revenue-sharing structure and earlier free agency for certain players. The league was nonplused.

The MLBPA’s second proposal was met with a counter the following week, wherein the league reportedly kept the age-based free agency requirement and also sought to replace the arbitration system entirely — instead awarding pre-free agent salaries according to a WAR-based algorithm. That came with its own fairly obvious set of issues, as explored here at the time of the offer.

As the CBA’s Dec. 1 expiration ticked nearer, it became clear a deal would not be reached. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to move the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players (which had been set for Dec. 2) up to Nov. 30. A flurry of free-agent and (to a lesser extent) trade activity ensued in the week leading up to the CBA’s expiration, as a handful of motivated teams sought to get some of their offseason business done before the lockout.

Commissioner Rob Manfred announced in a letter to fans on Dec. 2 that the league had locked out the players. Manfred claimed to have been “forced” into a lockout, which he described as a “mechanism to protect the 2022 season” — one that would “jumpstart” negotiations with the MLBPA. The two sides did not return to the table until mid-January, just over six weeks later.

Major League Baseball has made one formal proposal since implementing the lockout. The MLBPA has made two and has now been awaiting a counter to that second offer for ten days. In the interim, MLB made a request for federal mediation; the MLBPA swiftly rejected, with players banding together to voice a desire for daily negotiations with MLB rather than turning things over to a third party. Daily negotiations (obviously) have not occurred.

Players are still seeking increased minimum salaries, a bonus pool to reward pre-arbitration players based on performance, an increased luxury-tax threshold and measures to eliminate tanking, among other items. An expanded playoff format and the associated spike in television/streaming/gate revenues is among the league’s top priorities, but owners are also pushing back heavily on the extent to which minimum salary should increase and to which pre-arbitration players should be compensated.

Manfred confirmed yesterday that the league will submit a new proposal Saturday. He also declined to announce a delay to the start of Spring Training (although that feels like an inevitability), called missing regular season games “a disastrous outcome for the industry,” and maintained optimism that the season will begin on March 31, as scheduled.

All of that sounds nice, but it’s increasingly difficult to believe the two parties will make swift progress, given the acrimonious nature of talks to date. It’s also worth noting that back in October, Manfred made similar comments about agreeing to a new CBA before Dec. 1, calling an agreement the league’s “number one priority” and expressing optimism a deal would be reached in time.

That rundown of where things stand out of the way, let’s open this up for (further) debate among readers with a poll…

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Anthony Rizzo’s Contract

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Anthony Rizzo is one of the higher-profile remaining unsigned free agents. The 32-year-old is a three-time All-Star and a four-time Gold Glove winner. Rizzo also claimed a Silver Slugger award during a 2016 season where he was a key member of the Cubs’ World Series winning squad, and he appeared on MVP balloting every year during his 2014-19 peak.

Yet Rizzo’s numbers have slipped from that middle-off-the-order form over the past two seasons. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .240/.343/.432 hitter. That offensive output is nine percentage points above the overall league average, by measure of wRC+, but it’s a bit below the leaguewide .254/.335/.455 line compiled by first basemen.

Coupled with his age (32), that recent dip in production at the plate makes Rizzo a particularly challenging free agent to value. Teams could view his downturn as a sign that his days as an impact bat are now behind him. Yet he still brings an enviable combination of bat-to-ball skills, impressive exit velocities and well-regarded defense. That’s before considering the intangible value teams might attribute to Rizzo, who was generally viewed as a key clubhouse leader on the Cubs’ playoff rosters.

Rizzo’s two most recent teams — the Cubs and Yankees — have each been mentioned as possible post-lockout suitors for a reunion. The Braves have considered him as a possible alternative if Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere. There haven’t been any other teams with substantive ties to the lefty hitter this offseason, but clubs like the Brewers, Guardians and Marlins could be speculative fits for a first base addition.

The free agent and trade markets for first basemen didn’t move much before the lockout. In addition to the unsigned Freeman and Rizzo, top trade possibilities like Matt Olson and Luke Voit could find themselves on the move. That supply of potentially available star first basemen complicates the situation further, particularly given the rapid transactions frenzy that’s expected to take place once the lockout wraps up.

There haven’t been any firm reports about what kind of deal Rizzo might be targeting this winter. He rejected a five-year, $70MM extension offer from the Cubs during Spring Training. Yet topping that number now — even with the prospect of all 30 teams pursuing him — seems unlikely given his fine but unspectacular 2021 performance. At the start of the winter, MLBTR projected Rizzo to receive a three-year, $45MM guarantee.

What does the MLBTR readership think? For how much will Rizzo sign after the transactions freeze?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Michael Conforto’s Contract

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Whenever teams are again permitted to make major league transactions, clubs in search of corner outfield help will have to sort through a still-strong class. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are unsigned, as is third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. All those players seem in line for significant multi-year contracts, but it’s not as clear whether that’ll be the case for Michael Conforto.

Conforto looked to be on the path to a huge deal after hitting .265/.369/.495 (133 wRC+) between 2017-20. Set to hit free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign, a nine-figure contract didn’t seem out of the question at the start of last season. Yet Conforto went to post his worst results since 2016, a .232/.344/.384 mark with 14 home runs over 479 plate appearances.

That offensive output was still six percentage points better than the league average, by measure of wRC+. The former tenth overall pick walked in a robust 12.3% of his trips to the dish to keep his on-base percentage at a respectable level. He played his home games in Citi Field, one of the more pitcher-friendly environments around the league. Yet for a player limited to the corner outfield, a 106 wRC+ is more fine than especially impressive.

Teams will have to determine how to weigh Conforto’s platform year against his prior four-year run of strong play. From a process perspective, there are some reasons for optimism. Last season’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a personal low, a couple points lower than the league mark. As mentioned, his plate discipline remained strong. His rates of hard contact and barrels (essentially hard-hit batted balls at the optimal angle for power production) were down a tick from his best years but still above-average. It wouldn’t be surprising if Conforto rights the ship moving forward, particularly if he signs with a club that plays in a more hitter-favorable setting.

So Conforto should still be an appealing free agent target, but he’s coming off a much worse platform year than both Castellanos and Schwarber. A long-term investment in Conforto probably feels riskier to teams now than it would’ve eight months ago. And any signing club will have to forfeit a draft pick, since the Washington native received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

There wasn’t much indication as to where Conforto might end up prior to the lockout. The Marlins were the only club known to have substantive interest. Miami already signed Avisaíl García, but they’re reportedly still on the hunt for an addition in the grass. Beyond the Fish, the clubs reaching out to Conforto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain a mystery. So that doesn’t offer much indication about how robust the market might be.

Nor is it clear how much money Conforto and his reps are seeking. Schwarber, though, is reportedly looking for a three-year deal in the $60MM range. The two players were born just five days apart in March 1993, and they’ve been similarly productive since the start of 2019. But with Schwarber coming off the much better platform year, it seems likely he’ll land the larger guarantee of the two whenever they both put pen to paper.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected Conforto would sign a one-year deal in the $20MM range in hopes of a bounceback season before re-testing the market after 2022. That could be a possibility, although his decision to turn down New York’s $18.4MM qualifying offer suggests he wanted to explore multi-year opportunities (or at least loftier single-year proposals) from suitors around the league.

Where does the MLBTR readership expect Conforto’s contract to end up?

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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?

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Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.

There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.

In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.

Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.

The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.

The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.

The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe’s offensive production once the lockout is over.

The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.

The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.

The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.

The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.

The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.

The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.

The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.

The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.

You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.

The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.

The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.

The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.

The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?

Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.

The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.

A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.

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Poll: What Is The Rays’ Future In Tampa Bay?

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The Rays’ plan of splitting home games between Tampa Bay and Montreal led to quite a bit of debate and controversy since the club first floated the concept in 2019, though after the Rays asked the league for formal approval of the plan in November, the MLB Executive Council officially rejected the two-city proposal yesterday.

Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said the team’s immediate next step is to again revisit the idea of a new ballpark in the Tampa Bay area, even though multiple attempts at such a project have fallen short over the years.  Tampa mayor Jane Castor recently said that her office would be open to any idea that would keep the Rays in town, yet while the city would also be willing to explore alternate ways of funding a ballpark, Castor drew the line at using taxpayer funds, saying “the community’s appetite to pay for a stadium has left the train station.”

In short, it looks like the Rays may essentially be back at square one, given how Sternburg stressed that his organization had been so fully committed to the Tampa/Montreal plan.  In fact, Sternburg is still a believer in the two-city idea for not just the Rays, but for teams in both Major League Baseball and beyond, stating that “Partial seasons are going to be the wave of the future in professional sports.”

It isn’t yet known why the Executive Council vetoed the Rays’ idea, though the simple answer could be that there were too many logistical hurdles to make such a two-city concept work.  However, just to be purely speculative, it is possible that the league took issue with splitting games between Tampa and Montreal specifically, rather than necessarily vetoing a two-city concept entirely.  With more and more cities increasingly reluctant to commit much or any taxpayer dollars towards building new stadium projects, categorically ruling out a “sister city” plan or other creative ideas wouldn’t be logical for MLB, as the league obviously wants all of its teams in revenue-generating ballpark situations.

Maybe the Executive Council could’ve taken a different view of the plan if the Rays had pitched sharing Tampa and a more nearby city like Orlando, rather than a city 1500 miles away and in a different country.  In the bigger picture, the Council might also have balked at one team covering two distinct markets, especially since Montreal has often been mentioned as a possible landing spot for an expansion team, or for any other existing teams who might eventually look to switch cities.

In any event, the only option that seems certain is that the Rays don’t see Tropicana Field as a long-term option.  The team’s lease at the stadium expires following the 2027 season, and unless the Rays sign a one- or two-year extension to give Tampa or St. Petersburg more time to finish a new ballpark, there is virtually no chance the Rays will still be calling the much-maligned Trop home come Opening Day 2028.

Where does MLBTR’s readership think the Rays will eventually wind up after the 2027 season?

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