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Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $21.05MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2025 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded, as we saw last winter when the Orioles included their CBR-A pick to the Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes trade package.

It is relatively rare to see teams from this group splurge on a big-ticket free agent, though Baltimore is expected to increase spending under new owner David Rubenstein.  The Tigers also have plenty of payroll space and could look to build more aggressively around their young core, after Detroit unexpectedly made a run to the ALDS this season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2025 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The White Sox and now the Cardinals are both rebuilding.  The Padres can never be ruled out of making a splashy signing, but that seems unlikely given how the team has a lot of its own impending free agents to address, plus San Diego made a point of getting under the luxury tax threshold last offseason.  Angels owner Arte Moreno has said his club plans to contend in 2025 and the payroll will go up, though that might not manifest itself in the form of signing a qualified free agent, given how often the Halos have been burned on such signings in the past.

Washington and Boston are both borderline candidates for a big free agent signing.  The Nats are still technically in rebuild mode themselves, but could decide that the time is right to add some major veteran help to an intriguing mix of younger players.  The Red Sox have generally eschewed pursuits of pricey free agents in recent years, though since they haven’t had a winning season since 2021, ownership might be again willing to be more aggressive in shopping at the high end of the market.

Team In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Jays and Cubs managed to sneak under the $237MM tax threshold.  Roster Resource has both teams slightly above the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Cubs slightly over and the Blue Jays slightly under, so given how narrow the margins are, we’ll wait until the league issues its numbers before putting the two clubs in either the previous category or the next category.

Needless to say, both clubs are hoping for a reset on their luxury tax status, and lesser penalties for signing QO-rejecting free agents.  The Jays and Cubs are also two of the teams facing the most pressure to win in 2025, and thus could be more open to making a big signing to help turn things around.  If MLB’s calculations reveal that Toronto and Chicago did exceed the threshold this year, they’ll join the next group of…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Astros GM Dana Brown has said his team “may have to get a little bit creative” with their spending given how many big contracts are already on the books.  The same could be said for the Phillies and Braves as well, but it is also easy to see both teams remaining aggressive after falling short in the playoffs.  The Rangers have a lot of money coming off the books but, given their uncertain broadcast revenue situation, could spend but still make a point of ducking back under the luxury tax line.  San Francisco will be an intriguing team to watch, now that Buster Posey is running the front office and how the Giants already spent big to keep a pending free agent in the fold by extending Matt Chapman.

Since re-signing Juan Soto or re-signing Teoscar Hernandez wouldn’t cost anything in QO penalties, keeping those sluggers is likely the top priority for the Yankees and Dodgers, with other free agents perhaps as backup plans if Soto or Hernandez signed elsewhere.  The Mets were relatively quiet in David Stearns’ first winter as president of baseball operations, some more big spending might be in the works if owner Steve Cohen wants to build on the club’s playoff run.

All this being said, the higher penalties for CBT payors can be deterrents to spending on qualified free agents in particular.  This doesn’t mean the Yankees wouldn’t look to retain Soto or anything, but teams might prefer to make their big upgrades through trades, or perhaps with free agents who won’t have a QO attached to their services.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

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The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $21.05MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2024 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft.  (For instance, the Twins received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft when the Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract last winter.)  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  The 2024 draft didn’t have of these latter selections, but in 2023, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.

The Brewers will surely issue Willy Adames a qualifying offer, and the Orioles are just as certain locks to extend QOs to both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander.  Christian Walker also seems pretty likely to receive a QO from the Diamondbacks.  Michael Wacha is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2025 and re-enter the free agency market, and thus the Royals could well decide to issue a qualifying offer to the veteran righty.  Nick Martinez is a borderline candidate for a QO, just because $21.05MM is a steep price tag for a lower-payroll team like the Reds to give to a pitcher who might be best utilized as a swingman.  Martinez is another player facing a decision on a player option, as he can opt out and leave $12MM on the table to again pursue free agency.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).  The Angels qualified for this bracket in 2023 by just barely squeezing under the tax line, thus enabling the team to receive the 74th overall pick as compensation when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

This year’s free agent class offers a few borderline QO candidates from these six teams.  Boston’s Tyler O’Neill and San Diego’s Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim could conceivably get qualifying offers, though the teams could be weighing the pros and cons right up to the QO deadline.  In Kim’s case, the Padres will want all the information they can get about how the shortstop is faring in the early stages of his recovery from shoulder surgery.

Teams In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs

It should be noted that these lists of teams and their Competitive Balance Tax status won’t be finalized until the league releases its official numbers in December.  It usually isn’t too difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $237MM tax threshold, and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season.  MLB’s internal calculations could differ, however, or factor in some salary data that isn’t publicly known, so we won’t know for a while yet if Toronto and/or Chicago are tax payors or not.

The Cubs are just barely past the $237MM tax line in the view of both public websites — RosterResource has their 2024 tax number at slightly above $238.4MM and Cot’s has an even closer call of $237.2MM.  The two sites split when it comes to the Blue Jays, as RR has them over the threshold at roughly $240.4MM, while Cot’s has the Jays under the threshold at around $234.98MM.

While this tax status may impact whether or not the Cubs and Blue Jays will pursue any QO-rejecting free agents, it’s a bit of a moot point here, as neither club has any free agents who seem like viable candidates for a qualifying offer.  If Cody Bellinger exercises his opt-out clause, Chicago can’t issue him a QO since Bellinger already received one in the past.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2025 draft.  In the 2024 draft, these were the 134th, 135th, and 136th overall picks.

Juan Soto (Yankees), Alex Bregman (Astros), Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers), Max Fried (Braves), and Pete Alonso (Mets) are all locks to receive qualifying offers.  The Mets could also weigh offers for Sean Manaea or Luis Severino, with Manaea seen as very likely to opt out of the final year of his contract with New York.

Could The Twins Deal From Their Positional Depth This Winter?

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Despite a lackluster 82-80 record in 2024 fueled by a September collapse that saw the club go just 9-18 during the season’s final month, the Twins are nonetheless poised to enter the coming offseason with one of the deepest groups of position players in the majors. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, utility man Kyle Farmer, and outfielders Max Kepler and Manuel Margot all appear ticketed for free agency, but even after those departures Minnesota figures to have more potentially starting-caliber position players than it can fit in the lineup.

Of course, an excess of talent is never a bad thing. That’s particularly true for a Twins club that relies on Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis as key players despite their substantial injury histories. With that being said, strong showings from players like Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner in 2024 figure to open the door to more regular playing time while the likes of Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Austin Martin remain bench options.

In addition, 2022 first-round pick Brooks Lee has nothing left to prove at Triple-A even after struggling through his first taste of big league action, while top outfield prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins both reached the upper levels of the minors with late-season call-ups to Triple-A and Double-A respectively. While it’s unlikely that Jenkins cracks the big league roster in 2025, Lee should be expected to be part of the major league positional group after appearing in 50 games this year and it’s not hard to imagine Rodriguez finding himself in the majors sometime next year either.

While the club’s positional group certainly has its flaws, they nonetheless came together to post a 107 wRC+ that ranked ninth in the majors and placed them right in line with other playoff-caliber offenses like those in Philadelphia (108 wRC+) and Queens (109 wRC+). That could suggest the Twins would be best served leaving their hitting corps largely in tact this winter, but doing so would pose a major problem; the club is expected to have virtually no money to spend this winter, and the pitching staff is in desperate need of improvements.

RosterResource projects the club for a $139MM payroll as things stand headed into next year, and while The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman notes that club officials have suggested payroll won’t be cut in 2025 relative to the already-diminished levels it landed at in 2024, this past season’s payroll stood at just $130MM. That means the Twins likely need to trim payroll by nearly $10MM even before factoring in the needs of the club’s pitching staff. While Gleeman floats trades of relatively pricey veterans such as right-hander Chris Paddack and catcher Christian Vazquez, who are due a combined $17.5MM in 2025, but Gleeman suggests that convincing a team to take on either of those salaries in full could require the club to attach some amount of prospect capital in order to get a deal done.

Given those considerable restrictions, the Twins may need to get creative to make significant additions to their pitching staff. Perhaps that could mean parting ways with versatile utility man Willi Castro, who has impressed with 5.6 fWAR and a 108 wRC+ during his two years with Minnesota while playing every position on the diamond except catcher and first base. Valuable as Castro has been for the club, he’s set to become a free agent following the 2025 season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz to make $6.2MM in his final trip through arbitration this winter. That price tag combined with a lack of long-term club control could make Castro expendable for the Twins, and his better-than-average bat in conjunction with the ability to play capable defense all over the diamond (including shortstop and center field) should make him an attractive piece to virtually any club looking to add to its positional corps.

Of course, another option would be to deal a controllable player who offers less in salary relief but could either bring back a larger return or be parted with fairly painlessly. Dealing away Kirilloff would undoubtedly be selling low on a former first-round pick, but would save the club his projected $1.8MM salary and could theoretically bring back an arm to deepen a lackluster bullpen that ranked just 19th in the majors by ERA despite solid work from the club’s back-end duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Alternatively, it’s possible to imagine the club parting ways with an aforementioned breakout piece such as Larnach or Miranda if they believe this winter to be an opportunity to sell high on a player who has been inconsistent to this point in their major league career, with such a move being particularly palatable if the club believes a rebound season is coming for a hitter who struggled in 2024 like Kirilloff or Julien. It’s possible that parting ways with one of the club’s more promising young players could allow them to bring in a capable rotation piece, bolstering a starting staff that ranked just 22nd in the majors last year despite respectable rookie performances from youngsters like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa.

Poll: Christian Walker And The Qualifying Offer

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Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.

Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.

Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.

Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.

As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.

That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.

Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.

Extension Candidate: Riley Greene

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As noted in the Tigers’ Offseason Outlook piece, the club has a lot of payroll flexibility, even with continued uncertainty about its future broadcasting contracts.  Javier Baez and Colt Keith are the only Tigers players guaranteed money beyond the 2025 season, and that duo combines for $28MM in both 2026 and 2027.

Tarik Skubal will continue to get expensive through his two remaining seasons of arbitration control, but at a projected $8MM in 2025, even another big jump up to $16MM in 2026 is still a discount for a superstar pitcher.  Jason Foley’s arb number will keep rising if he keeps posting saves, but Foley is only arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.  Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson won’t hit arb-eligibility until 2026, and the likes of Parker Meadows and Reese Olson will still be in their pre-arb years.

In short, there should be plenty of payroll space for Detroit to seek out some star talent this winter as the team looks to build on its surprise run to the ALDS.  Beyond just external additions, the Tigers may well also look to lock up some of its young cornerstones, such as All-Star outfielder Riley Greene.

Selected fifth overall in the 2019 draft, Greene has long been viewed as a key piece of Detroit’s rebuilding efforts.  He was a consensus top-six prospect in all of baseball heading into the 2022 season, when Greene made his Major League debut and hit .253/.321/.362 in his first 418 plate appearances in the Show.  The development continued with 11 homers and a .288/.349/.447 slash line in 416 PA in 2023, though Greene’s playing time was limited by some notable injuries.  He suffered a stress reaction in his left fibula that cost him over a month of action, and he didn’t play after September 1 due to a right elbow problem that eventually required a Tommy John surgery.

2024 wasn’t an entirely healthy season either for Greene, as he missed just shy of four weeks due to a hamstring strain.  However, he still achieved his best season yet, hitting .262/.348/.479 with 25 home runs over 584 PA, translating into a 135 wRC+.  Most importantly, Greene’s return from the injured list on August 18 helped the Tigers spark their already-legendary late-season surge.  Detroit went 31-13 over its last 44 games, going from also-rans to a wild card berth in a manner of weeks.

Greene’s production after his IL stint (.786 OPS) wasn’t as strong as his .842 OPS pre-injury, and he hit only .231/.355/.269 over 31 PA in the postseason.  Still, Greene’s importance to Detroit’s lineup can’t be overstated, as he was easily the Tigers’ most consistent overall hitter.  Keith and Meadows didn’t start to contribute much at the plate until later in the season, and Carpenter was limited by both injury (about 2.5 months missed due to a lumbar spine stress fracture) and a lack of production against left-handed pitching.

Beyond the bottom-line numbers, Greene made some big gains on the advanced-metric front.  He went from 30 barrels and an 11.3% barrel rate in 2023 to 48 barrels and a 13.4% barrel rate this season, putting him in the 87th and 90th percentile of all hitters in each respective category.  Greene’s walk rate made a seismic leap up to 11%, far beyond his 8.4BB% in 2023 that was slightly below the league average.  While Greene still strikes out a lot, he at least did a better job of laying off pitches outside the zone, with a very impressive 23.1% chase rate.  Greene’s .329 BABIP indicated that he still received a good deal of batted-ball luck, but that number was well beneath the .369 BABIP he posted in 2022-23.

Defensively, Greene’ struggles in center field and Meadows’ excellent glovework up the middle necessitated a position change near the end of Greene’s 2023 campaign.  Greene was installed as the everyday left fielder this season and became a big defensive asset, with +14 Defensive Runs Saved, +4 Outs Above Average, and a +11.7 UZR/150 over 700 2/3 innings in left.  Between Meadows’ presence and top prospect Max Clark also viewed as a center field-capable outfielder, it looks like Greene will be staying in left field for the foreseeable future, which isn’t an issue since his bat plays at the position.  Comerica Park’s spacious outfield demands more from Tigers outfielders regardless of position, so Greene’s ability to deliver plus glovework in left field is no small feat.

There’s a whole lot to like about Greene’s early-career results, and he only just turned 24 years old in late September.  Barring a very low Super Two cutoff point, Greene won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason, and thus he’ll remain an immense bargain on a pre-arb minimal salary next season.

With four full years of team control over Greene, the Tigers might not feel too much pressure to work out an extension just yet.  Greene’s injury history might stand out to the team as a bit of a red flag, between the hamstring and tibula problems, the TJ surgery, and the broken foot Greene suffered in Spring Training 2022.  That said, those injuries might also lower Greene’s price point to some limited extent, and the outfielder could be more open to locking in some guaranteed money if he has any lingering concerns about his durability.

A pretty wide variance exists amidst the recent extensions signed by players within two and three years of MLB service time, with the highest end of those extensions represented by the mega-deals signed by Bobby Witt Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.  Greene’s representatives at Apex Baseball certainly might argue that their client is closer to those two in terms of meriting face-of-the-franchise types of salaries, but some pretty key differences exist.  Tatis was 22 at the time of his extension, while Witt (who is a little over three months older than Greene) plays the more premium position of shortstop.

Greene is currently slated to hit free agency entering his age-28 season, right in the midst of his prime years and on pace to land a huge contract if he keeps up his current form.  A big extension lasting a decade or more would hold obvious appeal to him, but conversely, an extension that covers only Detroit’s four remaining years of control might also be of interest — Greene could pick up a guaranteed payday that doesn’t change his free agent timeline.  The Tigers would get some cost certainty through Greene’s arbitration years, but such a “bridge contract” scenario might be seen as a placeholder for the team, since the Tigers would certainly want at least a couple of free agent years covered if they’re making such a longer-term commitment.

Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM extension with the Astros probably represents the floor of what Greene figures to land in an extension.  Alvarez signed that deal just a few weeks shy of his 25th birthday, and with three-plus seasons of hitting at level above even what Greene delivered in 2024.  Alvarez also had injury concerns (he missed almost all of the 2020 season due to surgeries on both knees) of a more significant nature than Greene, and Alvarez was already viewed at the time as more of a DH than a left fielder.  Greene’s much higher defensive ceiling offsets Alvarez’s better hitting, and it should be noted that the length of Alvarez’s contract hit the unofficial six-year limit that Astros owner Jim Crane is known to enforce on his organization’s contracts.

The Tigers have no such known limit on contracts, so a Greene extension could certainly (and likely would) exceed six years.  It’s still something of a mystery as to how president of baseball operations Scott Harris or owner Chris Ilitch would approach such a longer-term deal, as Greene’s extension would represent a new frontier for the organization as it comes out of its rebuild.  Keith’s six-year, $28.6425MM deal from last January is the only extension signed in Harris’ two years as Detroit’s PBO, and that contract is wholly different from Greene’s situation since Keith had yet to even make his Major League debut.

That being said, extending a player before his debut is an aggressive move in its own right, which could hint that Harris will be proactive in trying to retain players he views as central to the Tigers’ long-term plans.  Skubal’s two years of control makes him a more immediate concern than Greene, yet since Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, the Tigers might view Greene as the likelier of the two young stars to be open to a multi-year pact.

As noted earlier, an extension doesn’t need to happen in the near future.  Waiting at least another season might help both parties anyway, since another big season only raises Greene’s price tag, but by the same logic would also make the Tigers a little more comfortable about splurging on something like a decade-long extension worth well north of $200MM.  With a pretty clean set of financial books right now, however, the Tigers might feel the time is right to officially confirm Greene as a pivotal figure in this new era of Detroit baseball.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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One of the great late-season surges in baseball history brought the Tigers from eight games under .500 to within a game of the AL Championship Series.  With the rebuild now over, the Tigers have plenty of avenues available to bolster the roster for 2025.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Javier Baez, SS: $73MM through 2027
  • Colt Keith, 2B: $24,142,500 through 2030 (includes $2.6425MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2030; deal also includes $13MM club option for 2031 with $1MM buyout, and $15MM club option for 2032 with $2MM buyout)
  • Kenta Maeda, SP/RP: $10MM through 2025

2025 financial commitments: $38.5MM
Total future commitments: $107,142,500

Option Decisions

  • Casey Mize, SP: $3.1MM club option, $10K buyout (if option is declined, Mize is still arbitration-controlled through 2026)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

  • None

After moving most of their veteran players at the trade deadline, Detroit looked to be playing out the string as late as August 10, when a 3-1 loss to the Giants dropped the Tigers' record to 55-63.  That's when the magic started happening, as the Tigers went 31-13 over their last 44 games to surge into the final AL wild card spot, giving Detroit its first playoff berth since 2014.  The club then upset the Astros in the Wild Card Series and took the Guardians to the limit in the ALDS before Lane Thomas' clutch grand slam in Game 5 finally put the upstart Tigers away for good.

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Should The Padres Move Adrián Morejón Back To The Rotation?

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Left-hander Adrián Morejón just wrapped up the best season of his major league career, at least so far. He had appeared in each of the seasons from 2019 to 2023 but never reached 35 innings pitched in any of those. In 2024, he made 60 relief appearances, logging 63 2/3 frames. He allowed 2.83 earned runs per nine innings in that time. His 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate were all better than league averages. He added another two appearances in the postseason.

Now the Padres and Morejón will have to decide what’s next. The southpaw came up as a starting pitching prospect and was highly regarded as a minor leaguer. The Cuban lefty secured an $11MM signing bonus from the Padres in 2016, before the league introduced the hard-capped international amateur spending system that currently exists. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the league from 2017 to 2021, with Morejón getting as high as #52 going into 2019.

But his trajectory slowed down since that peak of his prospect hype, largely due to injuries. In 2019, he made his major league debut but missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic and there were no minor league games, limiting him to just nine appearances and less than 20 innings that year. In 2021, he required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. He was off the injured list by June of 2022 but missed time in the second half of that year due to shoulder inflammation. In 2023, he spent time on the IL due to a left elbow sprain and right knee inflammation, limiting him to just nine major league innings and less than 30 on the farm.

With all of those injuries, the Padres understandably kept him in a relief role this year. As mentioned up top, he stayed healthy and thrived in the bullpen. Based on the way the past few years went, the club might be tempted to just keep Morejón in the bullpen. With Tanner Scott set to reach free agency, Morejón arguably projects as the club’s best southpaw reliever for 2025, ahead of Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui.

But there’s upside to considering the alternative, with Garrett Crochet being a best-case scenario example of what’s possible. Like Morejón, Crochet was a top prospect who had spent the early parts of his career either hurt or pitching in relief. The White Sox stretched him out for a rotation role in 2024 with fantastic results, as he posted a 3.58 ERA over 146 innings. Even those numbers sell him short, as that club’s poor defense seemingly contributed to a .318 batting average on balls in play for Crochet this year. He struck out 35.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.5% clip and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. If it weren’t for that high BABIP, he probably would have kept some more runs off the board, which is why his 2.69 FIP and 2.53 SIERA were far better than his ERA.

That’s not to say that the Padres should consider such a performance from Morejón to be likely, but it demonstrates the proverbial pot of gold they could chase. Crochet is now a borderline ace and he will likely be the top trade candidate of this offseason, with the White Sox looking at bringing back a king’s ransom in terms of young prospects.

Morejón threw five different pitches in 2024, suggesting there’s potentially still a starter’s repertoire in there, without him relying on any one pitch too much. His sinker, slider and four-seamer were all thrown between 23 and 36% of the time, while he also sprinkled in a splitter 7.6% of the time and a sweeper at a 2.6% clip. That helped him avoid the extreme splits that can often doom a pitcher to a specialized relief role. Lefties hit .255/.303/.367 off Morejón this year while righties were only slightly better at .257/.321/.405.

Due to Morejón spending so much time on the IL, he has managed to accrue more than four years of major league service time. That means that, despite his limited track record, he’s slated for free agency after 2026. But the missed time has also prevented him from increasing his earning power. He made $850K this year, barely above the $740K league minimum. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest bump to $1.8MM in 2025. He’d be able to secure one more arbitration raise for 2026 before hitting the open market.

That price point is important for the Padres. Due in part to the collapse of their broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, the club had to cut the payroll last winter. They flipped Juan Soto to the Yankees to help them duck under the competitive balance tax while also adding some needed starting pitching depth.

Starting pitching is again a concern for the Friars going into 2025, with the recent news that Joe Musgrove is set to miss all of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish give the club a strong front three but they have question marks at the back end. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half but an ugly 8.10 ERA in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA this year but with a tepid 14.4% strikeout rate and he also had an 8.21 ERA in his Triple-A starts. Musgrove will hopefully be back by 2026 but King and Cease are both slated for free agency after 2025, meaning there’s even less certainty in the future.

Improving the rotation will undoubtedly be a focus for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller this winter but the budget might again be an issue. The Friars already have an estimated $231MM CBT number for next year, according to RosterResource, just shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Assuming the club wants to avoid the tax again in 2025, that doesn’t give Preller a lot to work with and even back-end starters often get eight-figure deals in free agency. Last winter, Kyle Gibson got $13MM on a one-year deal, Lance Lynn got $11MM, Wade Miley and Alex Wood each got $8.5MM while Martín Pérez got $8MM.

In addition to filling out the rotation, Preller will be looking to replace lost offensive production. Each of Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, David Peralta and Kyle Higashioka are slated to reach free agency, putting some notable dents in the lineup.

Given the club’s tight budget and long to-do list, it would be a great solution if Morejón could become a starter next year. That would be far cheaper than filling a rotation spot via the open market. There’s also the trade market but the Padres have sent out a lot of prospects in recent years and would probably love to avoid doing more of that, if possible.

But despite all the attraction of Morejón jumping into the rotation, there’s also the risk of another injury cropping up. In that scenario, it’s entirely possible that the Padres fall short of upgrading the rotation and also subtract a key lefty from the bullpen mix.

What do you think the Padres should do? Give him a shot at the rotation or stick with what’s working? Have your say in the poll below!

Trade Candidate: Taylor Ward

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The Angels are coming off the worst season in franchise history. They lost 99 games for the first time. Only the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins had a worse run differential. The Angels are playing like a rebuilding team, even if they haven’t gotten here intentionally.

Halos brass continues to resist the rebuilding label. Owner Arte Moreno said two weeks ago that he plans to approve a payroll increase and expects the team to compete for a playoff spot. General manager Perry Minasian expressed similar sentiments at his end-of-season press conference. The Angels aren’t about to tear the roster to the studs. At the same time, they can’t run things back while only tinkering with the bullpen (as they did last offseason) and expect markedly better results.

Whether they embrace a short-term reset or look to balance the MLB roster without dealing from one of the league’s worst farm systems, there’s a case for moving Taylor Ward. The 30-year-old left fielder has been the subject of trade speculation dating back to last offseason. The Pirates and Royals reportedly checked in at the most recent deadline. Nothing came together. Pittsburgh ended up acquiring Bryan De La Cruz from the Marlins instead. The Royals didn’t address their outfield at the deadline but claimed Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers a few weeks later.

Trading Ward over the summer would have been selling a bit low.  After a strong first couple months, he had a dismal stretch between June and July. From June 1 to the start of play on deadline day, Ward hit .175/.280/.313 while striking out at a 28% clip. He had a .227/.309/.401 season line at that point. He wasn’t trending well as a lineup boost for a contender.

Ward hit much better once the deadline passed. From July 30 on, he turned in a stout .282/.348/.471 slash over 230 plate appearances. He cut his strikeouts to a more manageable 23.9% clip and drilled nine home runs. Ward concluded the season with 25 longballs and a .246/.323/.426 showing that’s about in line with his career trajectory. He’s a slightly above-average hitter who plays roughly league average defense in left field. He has crushed left-handed pitching (.315/.374/.509) over the past two seasons while putting up league average numbers (.229/.314/.399) without the platoon advantage. It’s not a star profile, but that’s a valuable regular.

The Halos control Ward for another two seasons. He qualified for early arbitration in 2023 as a Super Two player, so he’s already in line for a notable salary. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $9.2MM sum next season, the highest in the Halos’ arbitration class. He’ll probably be in line for around $12-14MM in his final year of club control.

Ward isn’t too dissimilar from Lane Thomas, whom the Nationals traded to the Guardians at this year’s deadline. Thomas was a little more affordable, playing on a $5.45MM deal in his penultimate arbitration year. The midseason trade meant Cleveland was picking up a year and a half of his services rather than two full seasons. Washington landed a trio of prospects, headlined by recent second-round pick Alex Clemmey and upper minors utility infielder José Tena. That’s a general comparison point for what the Angels could seek for Ward if they were willing to move him for prospects.

Based on Moreno’s and Minasian’s comments, that might not be a consideration. The Angels haven’t merely said they believe they can compete in 2025. Their deadline activity backed that up. Los Angeles didn’t trade anyone who was not an impending free agent despite fielding interest in players like Ward, Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson.

Even if the Halos don’t want to make a trade with a firm eye to the future, they could look to deal Ward to net big league pitching. The Angels have one of the worst rotations in MLB. They’ve tended to shy away from significant free agent investments in pitchers, an organizational preference that seems to stem from ownership since it crosses multiple front offices. Trading prospects for rotation help only continues the trend of short-sighted moves that got them in this position.

There aren’t many players they’ll probably be willing to move off the MLB roster. They’re not going to trade Logan O’Hoppe or Zach Neto. Rengifo’s value dropped when he underwent season-ending wrist surgery in August. Anderson had a poor second half and has minimal appeal on a $13MM salary. Trading him for a modest return subtracts one of their few stable sources of innings.

The Angels aren’t exactly overflowing with outfield talent either, but left field is a comparatively easier position to address. That could come internally. Mike Trout has already said he could move off center field in an effort to stay healthy. His arm probably fits better in left than in right. Even if they move Trout to right (or kick Ward to that corner so Trout can handle left field), that could block one of the simplest paths to adding some punch to the lineup. This is a decent class for free agent corner outfielders, with players like Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill and Michael Conforto available. Trading Ward for a starter would clear a path for a free agent pursuit from someone in that group.

Pittsburgh and Kansas City could renew their interest. The Bucs got very little out of De La Cruz, while Grossman and Pham are free agents.  The Reds, Phillies, Braves, Blue Jays and Padres are other teams that could look for corner outfield help this winter. The Tigers and Red Sox are among the teams that’ll be seeking right-handed bats.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The David Bednar Question

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David Bednar has been the subject of trade speculation for the past few seasons. For the most part, that was a testament to his effectiveness. Bednar broke out as a leverage reliever with 60 2/3 innings of 2.23 ERA ball during his first season with the Pirates in 2021. He carried that into the ninth inning. Between 2022-23, the big righty combined for a 2.27 ERA while striking out more than 30% of batters faced over 111 appearances. He locked down 58 games, including an NL-leading 39 saves in 2023.

That production came on rebuilding teams. Pittsburgh was nowhere close to the postseason. Other teams no doubt tried to pry Bednar away, but the Bucs never seemed interested in moving him. He’s a Pittsburgh native who looked like a lockdown late-game weapon. The Bucs control him through 2026 and surely envisioned fielding a playoff team before then.

Bednar could resurface as a trade candidate in the coming weeks but under much different circumstances. He’s coming off by far the worst season of his career. The question now is not whether the Pirates should sell high on an affordable, breakout closer. It’s whether to move on in a cost-saving measure at a time when his trade value has hit a low ebb.

Even with the understanding that reliever performance can be volatile, Bednar’s 2024 season is confounding. After rattling off consecutive sub-3.00 performances in his first three full seasons, he allowed 5.77 earned runs per nine this year. That’s not a reflection of poor batted ball results that could be dismissed as luck. Bednar’s peripherals tanked across the board.

His strikeout rate had landed between 28% and 33% in each of his first three years. That fell to 22.1% this past season, slightly below the league average for relievers. Bednar’s walk percentage jumped from the 7-8% range to nearly 11%. He allowed more home runs (nine) in 57 2/3 innings this year than he’d given up (seven) across 119 frames in the previous two seasons combined. Bednar lost a lot of whiffs on both his four-seam fastball and curveball compared to prior seasons. Opponents teed off on the heater, in particular, hitting .256 and connecting on six longballs.

Bednar started the season terribly, allowing 14 runs in 10 innings through the end of May. He managed much better results over the next two months, albeit without the level of swing-and-miss to which he’d been accustomed. Bednar missed a couple weeks leading into the All-Star Break with an oblique strain. The wheels came completely off coming out of the Break, as he gave up 16 runs over his next 14 2/3 frames.

The Pirates, who had plummeted from contention, pulled Bednar from the ninth inning at the end of August. By that point in the year, the focus was on getting him right going into the offseason. Bednar’s run prevention in September was better, as he allowed a manageable five runs (four earned) over 10 2/3 frames. Yet he walked another 10 hitters with nine strikeouts in mostly low-leverage spots. It wasn’t a resounding finish.

It’d be easier to explain the dip in performance if Bednar’s velocity had tanked coming back from the oblique strain. That’s not the case. His fastball averaged north of 97 MPH from the start of May onward. His 97.2 MPH average heater for the season was the highest of his career. Bednar didn’t lose any life on his splitter or curveball. His stuff hasn’t dramatically deteriorated. His results never consistently turned the corner, though.

That leaves GM Ben Cherington and his front office in a difficult spot. Bednar’s early-career dominance earned him a solid $4.51MM salary during his first run through arbitration. He’ll be due a raise even on the heels of a down year. Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate as a player accrues service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bednar for a $6.6MM sum if tendered a contract for 2025. That’s the highest figure in Pittsburgh’s arbitration class and would make him the fourth-highest paid player on the roster as things stand.

A $6.6MM salary would be a bargain if Bednar pitched at anywhere near the level he showed from 2021-23. It’s clearly not the kind of money the Pirates (or any team) would want to devote for his ’24 results. The Pittsburgh front office annually works with a tight budget from ownership. That didn’t stop the Pirates from committing a $10.5MM salary to Aroldis Chapman last offseason, suggesting they’re willing to take some chances on talented but volatile relief pitching.

They’ll weigh the risk on Bednar alongside the need for multiple additions to a well below-average offense. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great bullpen, though someone like Colin Holderman or waiver find Dennis Santana could get a closing opportunity if the Pirates dealt the two-time All-Star.

It’s unlikely the Bucs would non-tender Bednar. He should be too talented to give up without getting anything in return. A sell-low trade is plausible. There are presumably teams that have more budgetary flexibility than the Pirates possess that would be happy to gamble something like $6.6MM on a return to form. That’d be a tough pill for a Pittsburgh front office that has surely declined much better offers over the years than the ones that’ll be on the table this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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Quick postseason exits in 2022 and 2023 left the Blue Jays wondering last winter if their core roster was good enough to compete for a World Series.  Heading into this offseason, the question is now if the Jays' core can even still contend at all, after the team cratered to a 74-88 record.  In what could potentially be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last season in Toronto, the Jays are under enormous pressure to turn things around.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Commitments

2025 financial commitments: $117.72MM
Total future commitments: $246.22MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

After a comparatively average 2023 season, Guerrero responded with a huge year that re-established him as one of baseball's top hitters.  Daulton Varsho also improved to roughly league-average offense, and continued his exceptional glovework in Toronto's outfield.  Alejandro Kirk has quietly become something of the catching equivalent of Varsho, as a standout defender whose bat leaves something to be desired.  Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt were more good than great this season but they bring a lot of durability and general effectiveness to the rotation.  They'll be joined in next year's staff by Bowden Francis, whose sudden emergence in the second half made him like a budding ace, let alone simply worthy of a starting role.

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