MLBTR Originals

Earlier this week, Nick Deeds gave MLBTR readers a chance to voice their opinions about where Kyle Gibson, the top unsigned starting pitcher from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, and David Robertson, the top unsigned reliever, would end up. That leaves one more unsigned player from our Top 50 list left to cover: 32-year-old right-hander Spencer Turnbull.

Turnbull became a free agent for the first time last offseason. He was coming off a poor final season with the Tigers. After missing all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he pitched to a 7.26 ERA and 5.24 SIERA over seven starts in April and May before suffering a neck injury. Upon his return from the IL in August, Detroit optioned him to Triple-A – even though he was nursing an injured foot at the time. The team would retroactively reverse the option in November (after non-tendering him the week prior), thereby granting Turnbull a full year of service time. Nonetheless, that didn’t change the fact that he spent the final weeks of the 2023 season in the minors, pitching to a 6.23 ERA and 4.25 FIP in eight starts.

Despite such an unceremonious ending to his Tigers tenure, Turnbull landed a $2MM guarantee from the Phillies last February, only $400K lower than his projected arbitration salary. It quickly seemed as if Philadelphia had struck gold, as the righty looked terrific out of the gate. Initially expected to start the season in the bullpen, Turnbull was thrust into the rotation when Taijuan Walker suffered an injury toward the end of spring training. Through six turns in the Phillies rotation during April, Turnbull tossed 32 1/3 frames with a 1.67 ERA and 3.37 SIERA. He struck out 28.3% of the batters he faced while inducing ground balls at a 49.4% rate.

Turnbull didn’t look quite as sharp after transitioning to a bullpen role in May, putting up a 4.26 ERA and 3.80 SIERA over his next 19 innings. Still, the Phillies were confident enough in his skills that they returned him to the rotation at the end of June when Walker suffered another injury. Unfortunately, Turnbull lasted just three innings in his first start in eight weeks, exiting with shoulder soreness and later hitting the IL with a right lat strain. That injury would prove to be season-ending.

All in all, Turnbull finished the 2024 season with impressive numbers: a 2.65 ERA and 3.67 SIERA, both career-bests. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 17.1% K-BB% were the best marks of his career as well. Unfortunately, 54 1/3 innings isn’t much of a sample size, and his lat strain only added to his reputation as an injury-prone pitcher. He has spent time on the 60-day IL in each of the past four seasons, and only once has he thrown more than 60 innings in a season (148 1/3 IP in 2019). Thus, MLBTR described him as “something of a wild card” on our Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. On a per-inning basis, Turnbull has shown the skills to be an above-average starting pitcher – he has averaged just over 3.0 FanGraphs WAR per 162 IP throughout his career – but that means a lot less for a pitcher who has not proven he can consistently start more than a handful of games per season.

All of that explains why Turnbull remains unsigned into March, and indeed, it sheds light on why he has not been credibly linked to a single suitor this winter. That being said, it’s not as if Turnbull can’t provide value to a major league club. Even with all the time he spent on the injured list in 2024, he was well worth his $2MM salary to the Phillies, producing 0.7 FanGraphs WAR and 1.2 Baseball Reference WAR while helping the team to victory in 12 of the 17 games in which he appeared. In a poll last month, more MLBTR readers voted Turnbull as the top remaining free agent starter than either Gibson or Andrew Heaney. While it now seems unlikely that Turnbull will secure the one-year, $7MM contract MLBTR initially predicted, he surely deserves a major league roster spot for the upcoming campaign.

So, where might Turnbull find that roster spot? At this point in the year, most teams are happy to stick with their in-house rotation options. It makes sense. Those are the guys the catchers, coaching staff, and analytics department are familiar with and the guys each team has been working with all spring. That means someone like Gibson might be forced to wait for an injury to free up a rotation spot he can claim. Turnbull, however, proved he could hold his own in a long-relief capacity last season, which would make it easier for a team to sign him as rotation depth, even if that team does not immediately have a rotation spot available. As he did with the Phillies, Turnbull could join a team with the expectation of pitching out of the bullpen, and eventually, a starting opportunity would almost certainly arise. That flexibility, in addition to the lack of rumors surrounding Turnbull and the relatively low salary he will command, makes it very difficult to narrow down the field of potential landing spots.

Back in November, Tim Dierkes predicted Turnbull would sign with the Padres, Anthony Franco the Rockies, Darragh McDonald the Blue Jays, and Steve Adams the Twins. San Diego and Colorado still seem like possibilities; the Padres are short on rotation depth even after signing Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart this winter, while Austin Gomber’s shoulder soreness should have the Rockies looking to add another arm. Toronto, on the other hand, already has some good rotation depth in the form of Bowden Francis or Yariel Rodríguez (whichever one does not make the Opening Day rotation). Meanwhile, Minnesota has former top prospects Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Louis Varland waiting in the wings, as well as Rule 5 draft pick Eiberson Castellano. The Twins have spent more than expected on free agents this winter, and it’s hard to think they’d be willing to spend any more on an area that is already a strength.

As for other potential suitors, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently reported that the Cardinals are considering adding a free agent reliever. While Turnbull isn’t a reliever, strictly speaking, he would likely be an upgrade over an arm like Gordon Graceffo, Kyle Leahy, or Chris Roycroft in a long-relief role. He would also offer depth to a rotation that lost both Gibson and Lance Lynn to free agency. Turnbull could come in especially handy if the Cardinals find a trade partner for one of their more expensive starters, such as Sonny Gray or Miles Mikolas, during the season.

The Guardians, Astros, Angels, White Sox, and Athletics are some more teams that could theoretically make room in their rotations. The Guardians are hoping to get some rotation upgrades midseason when Shane Bieber and John Means return from Tommy John, but they could use some help earlier in the year. RosterResource currently has Triston McKenzie (5.11 ERA, 5.34 SIERA in 20 starts from 2023-24) penciled in as their number five starter. The Astros also have several starters on the IL, leaving Hayden Wesneski, who has only made 22 starts in his career, as their most likely number five starter on Opening Day.

The Angels, arguably, have a complete rotation right now, but that’s only if they trust Reid Detmers in a regular role. The once-promising southpaw spent a significant portion of the 2024 season at Triple-A and pitched to a 6.70 ERA in 17 MLB starts. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s rotation is full of question marks after de facto “ace” Martín Pérez, but one might think they’d prefer to give as many opportunities as possible to the young arms within their organization. The Athletics are in a similar position.

One last team I would consider is the Mets. While they entered spring training with a surplus of starting pitching, their depth already looks thin after Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea both suffered injuries. Turnbull would likely be a depth upgrade over José Ureña, whom the Mets recently signed to a minor league deal.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Turnbull will ultimately wind up? Have your say in the poll below: