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The Top Unsigned Center Fielders

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We’re less than three weeks from pitchers and catchers beginning to report to Spring Training. While the offseason is theoretically winding down, there are still a number of noteworthy players on the open market. The top unsigned position player headlines the group of remaining center fielders.

  • Cody Bellinger: Bellinger rejected a qualifying offer from the Cubs at the beginning of the offseason. That was an easy call as he sought a long-term deal after a successful rebound campaign in Chicago. The 28-year-old is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs across 556 plate appearances. Bellinger’s batted ball metrics (a 31.4% hard contact rate, 87.9 MPH average exit velocity) aren’t as impressive as one might assume from his 25+ homers and early-career power impact. That said, he seemingly made a concerted effort to put more balls in play. His 15.6% strikeout rate last season was a career low, a marked improvement after he fanned in a quarter of his plate appearances between 2020-22. The Cubs are most often linked to Bellinger, who has also been loosely tied to the Blue Jays and Angels at points this offseason.
  • Michael A. Taylor: Taylor is a solid glove-first regular. Even as he nears his 33rd birthday, he continues to post well above-average defensive grades. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast estimated he was between five and seven runs better than the standard center fielder in a little under 1000 innings for the Twins last year. Taylor paired that with one of his better offensive showings. He hit a career-high 21 home runs and swiped 13 bags in 129 contests. That came with a subpar .220 average and .278 on-base percentage, as he struck out more than a third of the time. The whiffs are part of the package with Taylor, but he has enough power to profile as a bottom-of-the-lineup regular so long as he continues to defend at this level. The Angels, Padres, Pirates and Red Sox are among the teams that have been linked to Taylor.
  • Adam Duvall: It’s debatable whether Duvall qualifies as more than an emergency option in center field. He’s been a left fielder for the majority of his career. The Red Sox moved him more frequently into center last year, an odd choice for a player in his age-34 season. Duvall’s defensive grades in 478 innings of center field work were predictably below-average. He’s still a solid defender in left who can moonlight up the middle, however. More importantly, Duvall had a rebound year at the plate. He blasted 21 homers in only 353 plate appearances, running a .247/.303/.531 slash. As is the case with Taylor, teams looking at Duvall will have to live with some strikeouts and a low OBP. He has a trio of 30-homer seasons on his résumé and might have gotten a fourth last year had he not missed a couple months with a wrist fracture. The Angels and incumbent Red Sox have been tied to Duvall this offseason; Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested last week the bidding may come down to those two clubs.
  • Aaron Hicks: By late May, it wasn’t clear how much longer Hicks would remain in the big leagues. He was released by the Yankees as he seemed en route to a third straight poor season. The Orioles somewhat surprisingly added him on a big league deal. From that point, the switch-hitting Hicks had a resurgence. He closed the year with a .275/.381/.425 slash over 236 plate appearances in Baltimore. Hicks walked at a massive 14.8% clip while striking out only 20.8% of the time. That won’t erase the memories of his struggles toward the end of his tenure in the Bronx, but it should land him a guaranteed MLB roster spot again. He’d be essentially a free pickup for whatever teams signs him. The Yankees are still on the hook for next year’s $9.5MM salary and a $1MM buyout on a 2025 option. A signing team would only pay Hicks at the $740K league minimum rate for whatever time he spends on the MLB roster, which would be subtracted from New York’s obligations.
  • Travis Jankowski: The lefty-swinging Jankowski had a nice year as a role player for the World Series champion Rangers. He hit .263/.357/.332 and stole 19 bases in 20 attempts over 107 games. That should be enough to land him another MLB deal on a low base salary. Jankowski’s offensive upside is limited by bottom-of-the-scale power. He has excellent contact skills, a patient approach, and enough speed to factor in on the bases and at all three outfield positions. He’s a solid bench piece.

Poll: Should The Red Sox Trade Kenley Jansen?

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The payroll has become a topic of conversation for the Red Sox. Despite chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that this year’s payroll will probably be lower than last year’s. It was reported last month by Chris Cotillo of MassLive that the club could look to shed some more payroll in order to improve their ability to pursue their free agent targets.

Per Roster Resource, the club’s payroll currently sits at $178MM. It hasn’t been that low in a full season since 2014, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it seems the pursestrings are getting tight nonetheless. The club has been connected to some big name free agents that are still available, such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but perhaps they need to free up a bit of cash before they can earnestly pursue any of those. More affordable options would include Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and others.

Cotillo’s report identifies Kenley Jansen as a possible candidate for such a salary-clearing deal, which is a logical fit. He signed a two-year, $32MM deal with the Sox last offseason, with even salaries of $16MM in each campaign. His first season in Boston was solid, though not spectacular. He recorded 29 saves in 33 chances, posting an earned run average of 3.63 on the year. His 27.7% strikeout rate was above league average but the lowest single-season mark in his career. The club has reportedly received trade interest in him.

With the Chris Sale deal, the club flipped the soon-to-be-35-year-old for a younger second baseman in Vaughn Grissom while effectively replacing Sale by signing Lucas Giolito. Perhaps the club is thinking of a similar path with the bullpen, as they have been connected to relievers like Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson, though those two have now signed with other clubs. With Jansen now 36 years old, they could perhaps exchange him for whatever the market will bear, then pivot to a younger arm to bolster the relief corps.

They could also consider replacing him internally with someone like Chris Martin, though there would also be some logic to consider trading him as well. He was signed to a two-year, $17.5MM deal last offseason, with $9MM of that still to be paid out. Per the Associated Press, he’ll make a $7.5MM salary this year and a $1.5MM payment of his $4MM signing bonus is scheduled for June.

Martin, 38 in June, is coming off a dominant season in a setup role. He posted an ERA of 1.05 in 55 appearances, racking up 23 holds in the process. He struck out 23.1% of opponents, walked just 4% of them and got grounders at a 51% clip. Martin’s never really been a closer in the majors, with just 12 career saves, though he did have a 21-save season while pitching in Japan in 2016.

Similar to the logic with Sale and Jansen, perhaps the club would consider making Martin available on the trade market and then replacing him with a younger free agent. Or perhaps they would like to trade one, keep one in the closer’s role and use the saved money to further address their rotation.

The relief pitching market has recently started to move, with many dominoes falling of late. In addition to Hicks and Stephenson, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore have come off the board in the past little bit. That leaves David Robertson, Ryan Brasier, Phil Maton, Héctor Neris, Adam Ottavino, Wandy Peralta and Brad Hand as some of the best bullpen options still available. With the market getting thinner, perhaps the Sox can flip Jansen and/or Martin, then use the money saved to address their rotation.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the club’s rotation locks as Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta, with Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski, Cooper Criswell and Max Castillo among the options for the back end and depth jobs.

What do you think? Should the Sox subtract from the bullpen in order to upgrade the club in other ways? If so, who should they move? Have your say in the poll below!

Infield Options For The Mariners

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To say the current offseason hasn’t panned out the way fans hoped would be putting things mildly. Fresh off a heartbreaking 2022 postseason exit and a narrow 2023 postseason miss, Seattle fans hoped to see significant investment in the team that would help put the on-field product over the top. Instead, ownership has opted to place some rather clear payroll restrictions on the front office in light of ongoing uncertainty regarding the team’s television rights.

The M’s are hardly alone in that regard, but that’s of little consolation to a fan base that has seen Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic all depart. Incoming bats like Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, Luis Urias and the reacquired Mitch Haniger all have upside, but with the exception of Garver they lack the recent track records of Suarez and Hernandez. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said early in the offseason that much of the turnover would be in service of improving the team’s contact skills, but each of Garver, Haniger and especially Raley have strikeout concerns of their own. That’s not true to the same extent as Suarez, Hernandez and Kelenic, but the M’s haven’t exactly stockpiled plus bat-to-ball skills and overhauled their offensive identity, either.

The offseason isn’t over, but a good bit of the Mariners’ heavy lifting has been completed. Dipoto said recently that he still envisions potential additions both in the infield and the bullpen. However, that doesn’t mean there’s a blank check or that there aren’t caveats to consider. He indicated earlier in the offseason that the payroll would likely increase but perhaps not by a significant level. The Mariners are currently about $10-11MM shy of last year’s mark. There’s some spending room, but they’ll also likely want to leave some room for in-season acquisitions. On the trade front, Dipoto acknowledged that he’s received interest in young starters like Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo but also all but stated he has little appetite to deal from his coveted stock of youthful arms.

What options could the Mariners take to fit those bullpen and infield goals, then? Focusing on the former seems like a fool’s errand; there are any number of relievers who could be acquired, and the Mariners under the current front office regime have often focused on lesser-known names whom they believe they can take to a new level. That’s been the case with a number of success stories, including Paul Sewald, Justin Topa, Andres Munoz, Drew Steckenrider, Tayler Saucedo, Gabe Speier and others.

It’s possible there’s a similar preference for an unexpected acquisition in the infield, but the supply of names is both more finite and easier to pinpoint. Let’s run through some options who could be acquired without seismically increasing payroll.

Free Agents

  • Whit Merrifield: Merrifield might be the most straightforward answer. He’s a high-contact second baseman with modest pop who’s spent the bulk of his career in a pitcher-friendly setting (Kauffman Stadium) not entirely dissimilar from the Mariners’ own pitcher-friendly venue, T-Mobile Park. Merrifield fits the previously stated goal of reducing the team’s strikeout rate better than any of their offseason acquisitions to date. He could play second base regularly, pushing Josh Rojas and Urias into a platoon at third base. And, in the event of injuries in the outfield, Merrifield is an experienced contingency option who could slide into the outfield, with Rojas moving back over to second base. Merrifield hit .272/.318/.382 last year with Toronto, though he struggled in the season’s final six weeks. His end-of-season numbers are more or less in line with his slash dating back to the 2021 season. Merrifield will soon turn 35, so he’s likely limited to a two-year deal.
  • Gio Urshela: Urshela boasts plenty of contact with less speed than Merrifield but a bit more pop and solid defense at third base. His 2023 season came to an end after just 228 plate appearances due to a pelvic fracture. He hit .299/.329/.374 before landing on the injured list, and since 2021 he’s a .281/.323/.425 hitter. Assuming he’s healthy, Urshela would give the Mariners plenty of contact, good defense at third and 10 to 15 home runs. Given his injury-shortened 2023 season, he’s probably capped at two years and could settle for a one-year pact.
  • Tim Anderson: Anderson has already said he’s willing to move to second base, which is where the Mariners would play him in deference to J.P. Crawford. He hasn’t rated as a strong defensive shortstop for the past few years anyhow, and last year his bat experienced a precipitous decline; in 524 trips to the plate, he batted just .245/.286/.296. Awful as that output was, Anderson isn’t far removed from being one of the best-hitting infielders in the game. From 2019-22, he led the Majors with a .318 average. His .318/.347/.473 line during that time helped him make two All-Star teams and win a Silver Slugger Award. Given last year’s disastrous season, a one-year deal worth less than the $14MM option the White Sox declined seems likely.
  • Justin Turner: He’s 39 years old, but you wouldn’t know it looking at Turner’s .276/.345/.455 batting line in 2023 or his overall .277/.352/.455 slash dating back to 2021. Turner might not be a good defensive option at the hot corner anymore, but he doesn’t necessarily need to be a full-time infielder with both Urias and Rojas on the roster. The Mariners could play Turner at the hot corner occasionally, giving either Rojas or Urias the nod at second on those days, depending on the matchup. Turner has never whiffed in more than 18% of his plate appearances in a season, and while he ought to command a nice price on a one-year deal, even a $16MM guarantee would only put the Mariners about $5MM north of where they finished the 2023 season.

Trade Candidates

  • Jorge Polanco, Twins: Polanco has been locked into the Twins’ infield since 2017, and over his past 2695 plate appearances he’s batted .270/.338/.455 with 95 homers. The veteran switch-hitter is earning $10.5MM this season and has a $12MM option for 2025. On paper, there’s a strong matchup between a Twins club looking to add some MLB-ready pitching and a Mariners club looking for a clear infield upgrade but unwilling to part with any of its young arms in order to acquire a pure 2024 rental. Young pitchers like Bryce Miller likely have more trade value than Polanco on his own, but the Twins typically have little issue balancing the scales with minor leaguers or back-end 40-man pieces (as they did in last year’s Pablo Lopez/Luis Arraez swap and the year prior in the Chris Paddack/Taylor Rogers trade).
  • Kyle Farmer, Twins: Farmer is a one-year rental who has less of a track record of production than Polanco. He’s a lefty masher that can handle any infield position and even has ample experience behind the plate (albeit primarily as a minor leaguer). At $6.05MM for the coming season, he’s well within the Mariners’ budget. Farmer hit .256/.317/.408 last year — numbers right in line with his .258/.316/.402 slash in nearly 1500 plate appearances since 2021. He wouldn’t be a slam-dunk upgrade to the infield mix but could deepen it and provide some insurance in the event that Urias and/or Rojas continue to struggle in 2024.
  • Isaac Paredes, Rays: The Mariners showed interest in Paredes in early December. Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander downplayed the possibility of moving his breakout third baseman but acknowledged he’d listened to interest, as he does on most players. Paredes ripped 31 homers while hitting .250/.352/.488 for Tampa Bay this past season. He’ll play next season at just 25. It’d be hard for the Rays to part with him, but he’s already into arbitration as a Super Two player and the team does have more third base depth than rotation depth after major injuries to Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. If the Rays were to move Paredes, they have top prospects Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero right behind him. With four years of club control and the type of production he showed in 2023, Paredes is the type of player who could command four, five or even six years of a plug-and-play big league rotation piece.
  • Christopher Morel, Cubs: Trade talk on Morel has cooled down. President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins downplayed the chances of a deal coming together at last week’s Cubs Convention. Still, Hoyer himself acknowledged early in the winter that Morel lacked a path to playing time at second base, his best position, thanks to the presence of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson in the middle infield. A Morel trade isn’t likely, and his prodigious strikeout totals run counter to the idea of bolstering the Mariners’ contact profile anyhow. But he’d add punch in the middle of the lineup — 42 homers in 854 MLB plate appearances — and the Cubs could perhaps use some more solidity at the back of the rotation. They have a growing number of young arms themselves but lack a clear fifth starter and could see Kyle Hendricks become a free agent next winter.
  • Ha-Seong Kim, Padres: Trade talk surrounding Kim has died down a bit since the Padres trimmed their payroll in other ways, but Kim is entering the final season of his contract before free agency. (His contract has a 2025 mutual option, but he’ll turn that down in favor of free agency.) After a tough first season in the Majors, Kim has come around with a .256/.338/.391 batting line over the past two seasons and emerged as an elite defender with above-average speed and contact skills. He swiped 38 bags and won his first Gold Glove at second base in 2023. He’s also adept at both shortstop and third base. He’s owed just $8MM for the 2024 season. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote last week that the Padres have continued discussing the possibility internally.
  • Jake Cronenworth, Padres: Taking on the entirety of the seven-year, $80MM deal still owed to Cronenworth isn’t something the Mariners or even a team without current payroll constraints would be willing to do. But Cronenworth hit .256/.338/.431 from 2020-22, including a 21-homer, .266/.340/.460 showing in 2021. If the Padres are willing to cover some of Cronenworth’s deal — which only pays him $7MM this coming season — or take on some money of their own (e.g. Mitch Haniger), Cronenworth could be acquired relatively cheaply.

Teams with Various Young, Controllable Infielders

  • Cardinals: It’s an oversimplification at this point to note that the Cardinals are deep in young infielders and the Mariners are deep in young starters. The two teams have discussed their respective “surpluses,” and no trade has come together. Much as some fans may see merit in swapping Nolan Gorman for Logan Gilbert, or Brendan Donovan for Bryan Woo or whatever other iterations of an infielder-for-starter swap you care to dream up, Dipoto and St. Louis counterpart John Mozeliak have yet to agree. Between Gorman (five years of control), Donovan (four years), Tommy Edman (signed through 2025), Jordan Walker (six years) and top prospect Masyn Winn (six-plus years), there are more players than at-bats to go around. The Cards will see Paul Goldschmidt become a free agent at season’s end, however, possibly opening up first base for one of their young infielders. Walker has already moved to the outfield. Donovan and Edman can play anywhere. All of these players can still be optioned, too. There’s no grave urgency for the Cards to deal from their wealth of talent, but conceptually, the fit makes sense.
  • Reds: Different NL Central team, similar story. Cincinnati was already deep in infielders before adding Jeimer Candelario on top of Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The Candelario signing prompted many — myself included — to expect an infield-for-pitching trade that has yet to materialize. But if the Reds indeed plan to play Steer in left field full-time, there’s a lack of urgency to get a deal done here as well. None of Marte, De La Cruz, McLain or Encarnacion-Strand has a full season in the Majors. McLain is the closest, and while he was excellent as a rookie, he might also be needed at shortstop if De La Cruz requires more Triple-A time. Marte was terrific but only saw 123 plate appearances. India won NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2021, but his bat has declined considerably since then. He’s no longer the clear infield fixture he once looked to be, and a below-average defender at second base with a roughly average .246/.333/.394 slash line (98 wRC+) over the past two seasons isn’t going to fetch a meaningful rotation upgrade on his own.
  • Orioles: Baltimore fans are still wondering when the organization’s move to upgrade the rotation is coming. Much of the focus has been on White Sox righty Dylan Cease, but the Mariners have a bevy of controllable arms to match the Orioles’ impressive stock of infielders. Gunnar Henderson is the long-term third baseman. Shortstop is earmarked for current No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday. First base currently belongs to a pair of Ryans: O’Hearn and Mountcastle. That’d be a strong group of infielders as it is, but it’s only scratching the surface. The O’s have top prospects Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz already on the 40-man roster. Both debuted in 2023. Fellow top prospect Connor Norby isn’t far off, nor is slugging third baseman Coby Mayo, who could also muscle his way into the first base or corner outfield mix. Veterans Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias give the Orioles some insurance if the kids don’t hit right away, but they also provide critical depth that makes it easier for the O’s to move someone like Westburg, Norby, Ortiz or Mayo to get a controllable pitcher.

The Chapman Effect

Unless Matt Chapman determines the long-term deal he wants isn’t attainable this winter and opts for some type of pillow arrangement, he’s not going to sign in Seattle — not without a serious pivot from ownership in terms of willingness to spend. Even on a one-year deal, he’d probably cost more than the Mariners prefer to spend. But Chapman still could impact Seattle’s infield pursuit. For instance, if he signs with the Giants — his top rumored fit — that could make San Francisco more willing to trade J.D. Davis. If Chapman goes back to Toronto, it becomes more feasible that the Jays would consider dealing young Davis Schneider. Wherever Chapman lands, he could prompt a domino effect that adds a new entrant or two to the trade market.

Boras Clients Who Signed After January In Previous Offseasons

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in three weeks but there is still a lot of offseason business to be completed. 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents still don’t have agreements in place for 2024, along with many players who weren’t on that list.

Of those 19, six of them are represented by the Boras Corporation. That includes the four top remaining names in Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman, as well as J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins. Boras also represents notable guys that missed the Top 50, such as Joey Gallo, James Paxton, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.

While most players and agents would prefer to get their offseason business done early, Boras has shown an unusual willingness to wait for the right deal, even if that means it doesn’t come together until very late. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, we can look at all the free agent deals signed by Boras clients going back to October of 2010. Focusing on the ones signed after January ended, we can see if a picture emerges.

Quick sidenote, the cutoff date of the start of February is a simple one but also slightly arbitrary, as Boras has signed some notable deals towards the end of January. Prince Fielder got $214MM in late January 2012, Max Scherzer got $210MM from the Nationals in 2015 and Chris Davis got $161MM from the Orioles in 2016, though those latter two both had significant deferrals. But without further ado, let’s look at the track record of deals that follow the first month of the year.

March of 2023

  • Jurickson Profar signs with the Rockies for one year and $7.8MM. MLBTR had predicted Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2023

  • Elvis Andrus signs with the White Sox for one year and $3MM. He received an honorable mention on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2022

  • The 2021-2022 offseason featured a large number of late signings due to the lockout. With transactions frozen from the start of December until mid-March, Boras had to quickly work out deals for Carlos Rodón, Yusei Kikuchi, Ian Kennedy, Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Correa and Zach Davies after the lockout ended. But that was at least partially due to the unusual circumstances and not necessarily about a waiting game played by Boras, so it’s probably not useful to look at those deals for this exercise.

March of 2021

February of 2021

  • James Paxton signs with the Mariners for one year and $8.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Paxton for a one-year, $10MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Trevor Rosenthal signs with the Athletics for one year and $11MM.  MLBTR had predicted Rosenthal for a two-year, $14MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jake Arrieta signs with the Cubs for one year and $6MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Aaron Sanchez signs with the Giants for one year and $4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

February of 2020

  • Taijuan Walker signs with the Mariners for one year and $2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

June of 2019

  • Dallas Keuchel signs with the Braves for one year and $13MM. MLBTR had predicted Keuchel for a four-year, $82MM deal at the start of the offseason. He had rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.

March of 2019

  • Bryce Harper signs with the Phillies for 13 years and $330MM. MLBTR had predicted Harper for a 14-year, $420MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2019

  • Marwin González signs with the Twins for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a four-year, $36MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Mike Moustakas signs with the Brewers for one year and $10MM.  MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Brad Boxberger signs with the Royals for one year and $2.2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Jeremy Hellickson signs with the Nationals for one year and $1.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2018

  • Greg Holland signs with the Cardinals for one year and $14MM. MLBTR had predicted Holland for a four-year, $50MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jake Arrieta signs with the Phillies for three years and $75MM. MLBTR had predicted Arrieta for a four-year, $100MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Mike Moustakas signs with the Royals for one year and $6.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a five-year, $85MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Carlos González signs with the Rockies for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2018

  • J.D. Martinez signs with the Red Sox for five years and $110MM. MLBTR had predicted Martinez for a six-year, $150MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Carlos Gómez signs with the Rays for one year and $4MM. MLBTR had predicted Gomez for a two-year, $22MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Eric Hosmer signs with the Padres for eight years and $144MM. MLBTR had predicted Hosmer for a six-year, $132MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Tony Watson signs with the Giants for three years and $9MM. MLBTR had predicted Watson for a two-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2017

  • Matt Wieters signs with the Nationals for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Wieters for a three-year, $39MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jered Weaver signs with the Padres for one year and $3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2016

  • Pedro Álvarez signs with the Orioles for one year and $5.8MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Austin Jackson signs with the White Sox for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Jackson for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2015

  • Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for two years and $13MM. Rodriguez was ranked 36th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
  • Everth Cabrera signs with the Orioles for one year and $2.4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

June of 2014

  • Kendrys Morales signs with the Twins for one year and $12MM. Morales was ranked 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.

May of 2014

  • Stephen Drew signs with the Red Sox for one year and $10.1MM. Drew was ranked 14th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but re-signed with his previous club.

March of 2014

  • Óliver Pérez signs with the Diamondbacks for two years and $4.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

February of 2014

  • Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for one year and $3.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Jeff Baker signs with the Marlins for two years and $3.7MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2013

  • Kyle Lohse signs with the Brewers for three years and $33MM. Lohse was ranked 10th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2013

  • Michael Bourn signs with the Guardians for four years and $48MM. Bourn was ranked 3rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2012

  • Edwin Jackson signs with the Nationals for one year and $11MM. Jackson was ranked 6th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2011

  • Johnny Damon signs with the Rays for one year and $5.3MM. Damon was ranked 47th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

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A few caveats need to apply here for context. Many of these older deals were impacted by the previous qualifying offer system, wherein a signing club would have to forfeit a first-round draft pick and a player could receive multiple QOs in his career. This was changed going into the 2017 season, with players capped at one QO in their career and the draft pick forfeiture moved back, depending on a club’s revenue-sharing or competitive balance tax payor status. Since that time, the QO seems to have had less of an impact on free agents.

Even with those caveats in mind, the data doesn’t paint a rosy picture of playing the waiting game, at least relative to the expectations from the start of the offseason. Most guys on this list settled for a lesser contract than was predicted, either in terms of guarantee or AAV or both. Guys like Harper and Hosmer still got really strong contracts, but Harper’s was clearly below projections while Hosmer’s deal stretched the years to get a larger guarantee but less AAV. The results for guys like Keuchel, Holland and Moustakas (twice) came in well below expectations.

Perhaps the early-offseason offers were even lower for some of these guys and waiting it out was the smart play. It’s hard to know for sure without having details of those discussions, which don’t often come to light. But there aren’t many instances of a player waiting until close to the spring and then finding a really amazing deal. That’s likely due to the fact that many clubs have already spent most or all of their budget for the upcoming season by this part of the calendar, or at least they can posture as though that is the case for the purposes of leverage.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the same will happen in the weeks to come, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor for Boras clients as well as any other player. As mentioned, the top four remaining free agents are all Boras guys, but there are plenty of non-Boras guys still available as well. The 13 guys from the Top 50 that aren’t represented by the Boras Corporation are Jorge Soler, Mike Clevinger, Aroldis Chapman, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Justin Turner, Brandon Belt, Héctor Neris, Jakob Junis, Liam Hendriks and Tim Anderson.

Designated Hitter Possibilities For Diamondbacks

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The defending National League champions were among the most aggressive teams early in the offseason. They acquired Eugenio Suárez to address third base and fortified the rotation via a four-year, $80MM contract with Eduardo Rodríguez. Just before Christmas, they reunited with left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM guarantee.

Arizona hasn’t made a major league addition since finalizing their new contract with Gurriel a month ago. They’re not done, however. GM Mike Hazen has said a few times the Snakes are looking for a hitter they can plug in at the DH spot. He reiterated that in a chat with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic not long after the new year, suggesting at the time they felt they were likelier to add another bat in free agency than through trade. While Arizona was focused primarily on right-handed hitters early in the winter, their deals with Suárez and Gurriel have balanced the lineup. Hazen indicated they’re considering DH options of either handedness at this point.

A few of their reported targets remain on the market. Some potential fits:

Right-Handed Free Agents

  • J.D. Martinez: Martinez, who mashed in a two-month stint for Arizona at the end of the 2017 season, remains one of the more productive hitters in the majors. He’s coming off perhaps his best year since 2019. He blasted 33 home runs in only 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers a season ago. His .271/.321/.572 batting line was stellar and he turned in his highest hard contact rate (54.8%) of the Statcast era. The huge power production partially masks an uptick in whiffs, as he struck out at a career-high 31.1% clip. That’s a bit alarming, but teams would happily live with the strikeouts if they anticipate Martinez hitting for that kind of power again. Arizona was tied to Martinez, who did not receive a qualifying offer from L.A., in early December. The Blue Jays, Angels and Mets have also been tied to his market.
  • Jorge Soler: Soler, 32 next month, drilled 36 homers for the Marlins a season ago. His .250/.341/.512 showing was a huge improvement on the .207/.295/.400 mark he turned in during his first year in Miami. Soler made the easy call to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact. The Marlins decided not to issue a QO and, according to the slugger, haven’t shown any interest in a reunion. While Soler is one of the sport’s streakiest hitters, he’s near the top of the league in raw power. He draws plenty of walks and trimmed his strikeouts to a managable 24.3% clip last season. Soler should find at least two guaranteed years and has an argument for a three-year pact. Arizona checked in on his market in early December. They’ve been joined by the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mariners in that regard (although Seattle is probably out of the mix after signing Mitch Garver and reacquiring Mitch Haniger).
  • Justin Turner: Arizona has been linked to Turner in consecutive offseasons. Even at 39, he continues to produce at the plate. He’s coming off a .276/.345/.455 showing with 23 longballs in 626 trips to the dish for the Red Sox. His is a balanced offensive profile. He walks at an average rate, makes a decent amount of hard contact and remains very difficult to strike out (17.6% strikeout percentage last year). Turner is no longer capable of playing every day at third base, but he can factor in at either corner infield spot while logging the bulk of his at-bats at DH. Toronto, the incumbent Red Sox, and Mets have also been linked to him this winter.
  • Rhys Hoskins: Hoskins is the only player in this group to whom the D-Backs haven’t been connected. Perhaps he’s simply not interested in signing as a full-time designated hitter. With Christian Walker at first base, the Snakes would have to push Hoskins into a bat-only role on most days. If he’s open to that possibility, Hoskins makes sense as one of the more consistent offensive players still on the market. The longtime Phillie missed last year after tearing his ACL in Spring Training. Between 2019-22, he hit .240/.349/.479 in more than 2000 trips to the plate. Philadelphia did not issue him a qualifying offer.

Left-Handed Platoon Bats

  • Brandon Belt: While Arizona hasn’t been tied to Belt this offseason, that’s true of essentially everyone. There haven’t been any public revelations on his market despite his strong 2023 season in a platoon capacity for the Blue Jays. The longtime Giant hit .254/.369/.490 with 19 homers through 404 plate appearances. That came almost entirely against right-handed pitching, but he’s still a productive three-true-outcomes hitter when he holds the platoon advantage.
  • Joc Pederson: Last year wasn’t a great showing for Pederson, who hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers across 425 trips for the Giants. That’s not what San Francisco envisioned when extending him a near-$20MM qualifying offer last winter. Pederson won’t come close to that kind of salary this time around. Still, he’s only a year removed from a .274/.353/.521 line. Pederson continues to post hard contact rates near the top of the league and has five 20-homer seasons on his résumé.

Trade Possibilities

While Hazen indicated a free agent pursuit was likelier than a trade, they’re not going to close off the latter market entirely. If they don’t find an agreeable price point with any of their targets on the open market, there are a few speculative possibilities on the trade front.

  • Eloy Jiménez: Jiménez is a right-handed hitter who has flashed 30-homer power upside. His career has been interrupted by frequent injuries, including extended absences in 2021 and ’22 (for a ruptured pectoral tendon and a hamstring tendon tear, respectively). Last year was only the second time in his career that he surpassed 100 games. It was also among his least productive seasons, as he hit .272/.317/.441 with 18 homers through 489 plate appearances. Jiménez will make $13MM next year and is guaranteed a $3MM buyout on the first of two club options for 2025-26. The Sox reportedly haven’t found much interest on the trade market as a result.
  • Harold Ramírez: The Rays have floated Ramírez in trade discussions as a potential sell-high candidate. The 29-year-old had an impressive .313/.353/.460 showing last year. He’s up to a .306/.348/.432 slash in nearly 900 plate appearances since Tampa Bay acquired him on the eve of the 2022 season. That production is built around a batting average on balls in play above .350 as opposed to prototypical DH power. While that and an aggressive offensive approach could give some teams pause, he’s a high-contact righty hitter with gap power and the ability to take the ball to all fields. Ramírez is on track to go to an arbitration hearing with Tampa Bay to determine his 2024 salary. He filed at $4.3MM, while the team countered at $3.8MM. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more after that.
  • Brent Rooker: Rooker, 29, turned in a career year for the A’s. Claimed off waivers from Kansas City last offseason, he popped 30 homers with a .246/.329/.488 showing in 526 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter posted excellent numbers against southpaws (.279/.354/.519) and acceptable production versus same-handed arms (.230/.316/.472). He struck out in nearly a third of his trips but tapped into the huge raw power that made him the 35th overall pick in the 2017 draft. Rooker is still a year from arbitration and under club control for four seasons. The A’s don’t have any urgency to trade him, but they probably wouldn’t consider him a core piece of their long-term rebuild given his age and defensive limitations.

Free Agent Profile: Michael Lorenzen

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The new year has seen something of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. Five free agent starters have signed multi-year deals guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the past two weeks alone, and that has left few options for teams hoping to find a capable rotation piece without breaking the bank for a player like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t completely devoid of options of that caliber, however. One of the more interesting pieces remaining on the market is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.

Lorenzen began his career with the Reds back in 2015 as a starter, but the then-23-year-old struggled in the role with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That difficult rookie season resulted in the righty spending the remainder of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, while also dabbling in the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open market for the first time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way role in order to return to the starting rotation full time with the Angels. The right-hander performed as a solid, back-end starter in his first season back in a starting role with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, though he was limited to just 18 starts by a shoulder strain. Looking at his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled with his command to a 10.5% walk rate during his return to starting in 2022, but struck out a respectable 20.7% of batters faced while generating grounders at an impressive 50.2% clip. That solid, back-end performance earned Lorenzen another shot at starting, this time as a member of the Tigers.

On the surface, Lorenzen’s 2023 season may not seem all that different from his 2022 campaign. While he managed 29 appearances (25 starts), his numbers were largely similar to those he posted the previous season: in his 153 innings of work split between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him more or less in line with his performance as member of the Angels the year prior. Looking under the hood tells a different story, however. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit prior to the trade saw the right-hander flash the upside of a solid, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average.

While Lorenzen’s stay in Philadelphia started with an impressive pair of starts that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts. That disastrous finish to Lorenzen’s 2023 season saw him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly during the club’s playoff run this year. While Lorenzen’s brutal final nine appearances last year can’t be entirely discounted, it should be noted that Lorenzen’s innings total of 153 was a career high, and the first time he reached even 100 innings of work in a season since his MLB debut back in 2015. That he was able to maintain his success through 122 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts before things began to unravel figures to lend hope to the possibility Lorenzen can return to that form in 2024 with more careful innings management.

In terms of potential suitors, the market has been entirely quiet regarding the 32-year-old this winter, though it’s easy to see plenty of speculative fits for his services. The Giants and Angels have both shown considerable interest in bolstering their starting pitching corps throughout the winter, though each may look to aim for more impactful additions than Lorenzen. Teams that hope to add to their rotation but figure to face budget crunches this winter, such as the Padres and Red Sox, could see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a guarantee of just $22MM over two years for, as a more financially palatable alternative to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are among a host of other teams that stand to benefit from additional rotation depth and could see the veteran righty as a more affordable alternative to other options.

MLBTR Poll: Jordan Montgomery’s Market

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It’s no secret that free agency has been unusually slow this winter. As we head into the final week of January, 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents remain unsigned, and that’s after a three-week period that saw nine players on the list (mostly from the middle tier of the rotation market and the upper level of the relief market) agree to deals.

While much of the mid-level market has begun to thin out at this point, the upper echelons of free agency remain surprisingly deep with the beginning of Spring Training less than a month away. That’s particularly true of the starting pitching side of things, where two of the offseason’s top four rotation arms remain unsigned. That includes left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who is coming off a dominant season split between the Cardinals and Rangers during which he helped Texas bring home the first World Series championship in franchise history.

After struggling with injuries early in his career, Montgomery has settled in as a reliable #2 starter in recent years, with a 3.48 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 94 starts over the past three seasons. While the left-hander’s peripheral numbers have stayed largely consistent over that time as his strikeout rate hovered around 22% against a walk rate that stayed in the realm of 6%, Montgomery’s results have improved in each of the past three seasons: his ERA dipped from 3.83, to 3.48, to 3.20 while his FIP dropped from 3.69, to 3.61, to this past season’s 3.56 figure. The southpaw further established himself as a playoff-caliber arm by helping to carry the Rangers’ rotation down the stretch while ace Max Scherzer battled injuries, posting a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts with the club over the season’s final two months before posting a strong 2.90 ERA during the playoffs.

As a clearly capable arm who can be slotted toward the front of a playoff caliber club’s rotation. Montgomery figured to be among the more coveted pitchers on the market this winter. That’s mostly proven to be true. While the southpaw has yet to sign, he’s garnered plenty of interest from teams throughout the winter with more than half a dozen clubs having been connected to his market over the past two months. Some of those clubs, such as the Mets, Cubs, and Cardinals, went in other directions as the winter progressed and no longer appear to be a fit for Montgomery’s services. Several others remain as plausible landing spots for the 31-year-old hurler, however.

Perhaps chief among those options is a reunion with the Rangers. The latest buzz on the rumor mill regarding Montgomery is that he prefers to return to Texas this winter, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently describing a reunion as the “most likely” conclusion to the southpaw’s free agency once all is said and done. Other potential suitors include the Giants and Angels, both of whom have been reported as interested in both Montgomery and Blake Snell in recent weeks. The Red Sox have also been connected to Montgomery in recent weeks, though the club’s payroll limitations likely mean they’d need to move salary to make room for an arm of Montgomery’s caliber.

While the Yankees also remain at least a nominal fit for Montgomery’s services, the club’s recent signing of Marcus Stroman could lessen their need for an impact rotation piece and they appeared more focused on Snell of the two remaining top starters even before signing Stroman. The Phillies have also been loosely connected to Montgomery this winter, though the club appears more likely to work around the edges of its roster at this point in the offseason rather than make a splash at the top of free agency.

Just as interesting as the question of where Montgomery will land is the question of what sort of contract he’ll command. MLBTR predicted Montgomery for a six-year, $150MM contract at the beginning of the offseason, identical to our prediction for right-hander Aaron Nola. Since then, however, Nola has gone on to return to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM deal. Reports have indicated that Montgomery is targeting a deal that would surpass Nola’s deal in terms of guaranteed money. It’s unclear, however, if teams value Montgomery more highly than Nola; while the lefty has been more consistent in recent years, he’s also six months older than Nola and can’t compare to the righty in terms of durability. Since Montgomery began his career in 2017, he’s made 141 trips to the mound, or two full seasons less than Nola’s 202 during that same timeframe.

So, how do MLBTR readers expect Montgomery’s market to play out? Where will the lefty land? Will he top Nola’s guarantee? Have your say in the polls below:

Each Team’s Local Broadcasting Arrangement

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With many regional sports networks in precarious positions, a number of teams have imposed payroll constraints this offseason to compensate for the less certain revenue streams. It’s thus worth identifying where all 30 clubs sit in terms of their local broadcasting picture.

[Related: Latest On Diamond Sports Group Bankruptcy]

A caveat: teams don’t announce the terms of their broadcasting contracts. Many clubs’ revenues for 2023 haven’t been reported. Last March, Mike Ozanian and Justin Teitelbaum of Forbes listed approximate 2022 local broadcasting sums for every team other than the Blue Jays. In cases where MLBTR was unable to find reported figures for last year or the upcoming season, we’re referencing that Forbes report for ’22 revenues. Revenue figures cited are for local broadcasting contracts only.

  • Angels: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. Expected ’23 revenues around $125MM (reported by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times in February ’23).
  • Astros: Formed joint venture with NBA’s Rockets to run Space City Home Network beginning in 2024. Previous RSN deal with AT&T SportsNet Southwest had paid $73MM in ’23 (reported by David Barron of the Houston Chronicle in November ’23).
  • Athletics: RSN deal with NBC Sports California. Projected ’24 revenue: approximately $70MM (reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN in January ’24). Contract expires once A’s leave the Bay Area.
  • Blue Jays: Owned by Rogers Communications, which distributes games via Sportsnet. All broadcast revenues unreported.
  • Braves: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. Expected ’23 revenues north of $100MM (reported by Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in November ’21).
  • Brewers: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $33MM
  • Cardinals: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’24 revenue expected to be around $73MM (reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in January ’24)
  • Cubs: Owners of Marquee Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $99MM
  • Diamondbacks: No RSN contract. Previous deal, which had paid $68MM in 2022, dropped by Diamond Sports Group in June ’23. MLB handling in-market broadcasting in 2024.
  • Dodgers: Co-owners of Spectrum SportsNet LA. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $196MM.
  • Giants: RSN/partial ownership deal with NBC Sports Bay Area. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $92MM.
  • Guardians: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group being renegotiated at a lower price. ’23 revenue: $55MM (reported by Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com in November ’23).
  • Mariners: Assumed full ownership of ROOT Sports Northwest beginning in 2024. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $100MM.
  • Marlins: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $49MM.
  • Mets: RSN deal with SNY. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $88MM.
  • Nationals: Co-owners of Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $61MM.*
  • Orioles: Co-owners of Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $61MM.*
  • Padres: No RSN contract. Previous deal, which had paid $47MM in 2022, dropped by Diamond Sports Group in May ’23. MLB handling in-market broadcasting in 2024.
  • Phillies: RSN deal with NBC Sports Philadelphia. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $125MM.
  • Pirates: Formed joint venture with NHL’s Penguins to operate SportsNet Pittsburgh beginning in 2024. Previous RSN deal with AT&T SportsNet paid roughly $50-60MM annually (reported by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in December ’23).
  • Rangers: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group being renegotiated at a lower price. Deal has paid $111MM annually to this point (reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News in January ’24).
  • Rays: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $56MM.
  • Red Sox: Co-owners of New England Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $97MM.
  • Reds: RSN/partial ownership deal with Diamond Sports Group pays roughly $60MM annually (reported by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer in December ’23).
  • Rockies: No RSN contract. Previous deal dropped by AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain after 2023. MLB expected to handle in-market broadcasting in 2024. Previous deal paid roughly $57MM in ’23 (reported by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post in January ’24).
  • Royals: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $45MM.
  • Tigers: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group.’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $60MM.
  • Twins: No current RSN contract. Previous deal with Diamond Sports Group, which expired after 2023 season, paid $54MM in ’23 (reported by Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune in January ’24). Twins could renegotiate new deal with Diamond.
  • White Sox: RSN deal with NBC Sports Chicago. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $60MM.
  • Yankees: Co-owners of YES Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $143MM.

* The Orioles and Nationals jointly own MASN, with the Orioles holding a majority stake. The sides receive equal rights fees but have been embroiled in a longstanding legal dispute about revenue calculation, which happens every five years under the terms of their contract.

Free Agent Faceoff: Tim Anderson/Amed Rosario

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Teams have been spoiled by the star-studded free agent classes of recent offseasons, particularly when it comes to shortstops. The past two winters have seen the likes of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa (twice), Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts hit the open market, giving teams in search of help at the position a plethora of All Stars to choose from. Teams in need of help at shortstop this winter have found themselves with slim pickings, however.

Just three players with recent experience at shortstop cracked MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents list this offseason, and the highest rated among them (Gio Urshela) played just nine games at the position in 2023 before suffering a groin injury that leaves questions about his ability to handle the position defensively entering his age-32 campaign. That leaves just two players at the top of the offseason’s thin shortstop market, and both come with major question marks: longtime White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, and former Mets, Guardians, and Dodgers infielder Amed Rosario. Both players had profiled as everyday regulars at the position entering the year but are coming off significant down seasons both at the plate and in the field.

Entering the 2023 season, Anderson was generally considered to be a top-10 shortstop in the majors. Over the previous four seasons, he had slashed an impressive .318/.347/.474 in 374 games while collecting two All Star appearances, a Silver Slugger award, and a seventh-place finish in AL MVP voting. His 123 wRC+ during that time frame ranked seventh among all shortstops in the majors, ahead of stars such as Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor. Unfortunately, the 2023 campaign saw the 30-year-old struggle badly both at the plate and in the field. Anderson posted -2 Outs Above Average last year after posting a +5 figure over the preceding four seasons while slashing a putrid .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate. That performance translates to a wRC+ of 60, 40% worse than the league average hitter and the worst figure among all qualified major leaguers last year.

As for Rosario, the 28-year-old was once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport but struggled early in his career as a member of the Mets. He took a significant step forward during his age-23 season, however, and from 2019 to 2022 was more or less a league average regular at shortstop with a .282/.315/.412 slash line good for a 101 wRC+. While his defensive chops at shortstop were questionable, he nonetheless accumulated a respectable 7.3 fWAR during that time, good for 19th among shortstops across those four seasons. Just as Rosario’s peak was less extreme than Anderson’s, so too was his downfall in 2023. Rosario’s overall offensive production dipped only slightly last year as he slashed .263/.305/.378 (88 wRC+) in 545 trips to the plate. Much of Rosario’s regression this season came in the field, as he posted a whopping -14 Outs Above Average at shortstop in 2023, putting him in the first percentile among all major leaguers according to Statcast.

As worrisome as Anderson’s offensive woes and Rosario’s defensive struggles are, teams in need of a shortstop will be hard-pressed to find a better option available to them. While it seems there’s at least a decent chance that the Padres trade defensive stalwart Ha-Seong Kim this offseason, other top trade candidates capable of handling short such as Willy Adames of the Brewers appear unlikely to be moved at this point in the offseason. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of alternative options either. Looking beyond Urshela and his aforementioned defensive question marks, the list of available shortstops is made up primarily of aging veterans coming off down seasons like Brandon Crawford and Elvis Andrus and players who have struggled to stay on the field at all recently such as Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi.

Given the many question marks surrounding both players, rumors of interest have been relatively few and far between to this point in the offseason. The Angels were connected to Anderson back in November, and his presence could allow the club to give youngster Zach Neto more time in the minor leagues to develop after he was rushed to the majors last summer. As for Rosario, he’s been rumored as a potential target for the Red Sox and Blue Jays, though both clubs have added middle infielders since then in Vaughn Grissom and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, respectively.

As far as clubs who could be speculative fits for Anderson or Rosario this winter, the team that sticks out most as in need of a shortstop is the Marlins. Miami currently figures to utilize Jon Berti as their everyday shortstop despite him having started just 86 games at the position during his major league career, more than half of which came just last season. The Dodgers are also known to be on the lookout for an upgrade over their current tandem of Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas at the position, while the Rays could use a shortstop given that Taylor Walls is still recovering from hip surgery while Wander Franco’s future in MLB is in question due to alleged inappropriate relationships with minors. The Mariners, A’s, and Pirates are among other clubs who could potentially benefit from adding another bat to their middle infield mix.

If your team needed to added a shortstop to its middle infield mix this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Anderson’s stronger defense and more impressive peak, or Rosario’s youth and stronger overall numbers last season?

The Phillies’ Next Steps

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It’s been a quiet offseason in Philadelphia to this point — well, as quiet as is possible for a team that doled out a $172MM contract. The Phils struck early and decisively to keep longtime rotation anchor Aaron Nola on a new seven-year deal worth that sum, but it’s been largely silent since that time. Philadelphia made an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, and the team is also said to have interest in extending Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency next winter.

Other than that, there’s been borderline silence out of Philadelphia. Even in terms of minor league free agency, the Phils have added hard-throwing righty Jose Ruiz and… that’s it. There’s obviously a good bit of offseason left to unfold, but for a team coming off consecutive NLCS berths and with clear World Series aspirations, it’s been a bit surprising. Their only signings beyond Nola and Ruiz have been low-cost deals to avoid arbitration with backup outfielder/first baseman Jake Cave ($1MM), swingman Dylan Covey ($850K) and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs ($850K).

That said, it’s clear that the Phillies aren’t yet finished with their offseason dealings. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much last week, telling Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his team is “not just satisfied” and is still working to improve. Where could the Phillies search for upgrades in an unusually quiet offseason by their standards? Let’s take a look:

Bullpen upgrades

The Phils have a need in the ’pen after seeing Craig Kimbrel depart and piecing together much of the relief corps via minor league free agency a year ago. Dombrowski’s low-cost pickup of Jeff Hoffman proved to be a masterstroke, but bullpen-mate Andrew Bellatti’s dismal 2023 campaign illustrates the perils of simply assuming that a breakout performance from a minor league free-agent pickup in the ’pen will carry over to the following season. Hoffman was genuinely dominant for the Phils, but his track record is limited.

Rob Thomson’s bullpen figures to be anchored by Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Gregory Soto. Bellatti is still on hand, and the aforementioned Covey can provide long relief and serve as a spot starter. Dombrowski spoke highly of rookie Orion Kerkering when chatting with Lauber and even noted that he’s turned down trade offers for the promising 22-year-old.

The Inquirer’s Alex Coffey reported in December that making some kind of bullpen addition is in the Phillies’ plans. Jayson Stark of The Athletic suggested not long before that report that the Phils aren’t likely to pursue a pure closer, so don’t expect a Josh Hader splash at Citizens Bank Park. If the Phils are comfortable making a long-term move, they could look to righties Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson. But Dombrowski has erred toward short-term additions in recent offseasons, signing Matt Strahm (two years, $15MM), Kimbrel (one year, $10MM) and Corey Knebel (one year, $10MM). If he follows a similar path, names like Aroldis Chapman, Ryne Stanek and old friends Hector Neris and Michael Fulmer could be in play.

Right-handed outfielder

Stark wrote back in November that the Phillies were planning to add a right-handed-hitting outfielder to their corner outfield mix. That new addition could serve as a platoonmate for Brandon Marsh in left field or perhaps handle left field on a full-time basis if Marsh were to slide into a timeshare with Johan Rojas in center field. A handful of notable names have come off the board, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Hunter Renfroe and most recently Teoscar Hernandez. However, the Phils never seemed likely to play at the Gurriel/Hernandez level anyhow, given the presence of Marsh, Rojas, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber.

There’s no shortage of free agents who could fill a part-time corner role. Candidates for that type of job include Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and switch-hitters Aaron Hicks, and Robbie Grossman. If the Phils are content to push Marsh and Rojas into a platoon to open the season, they could look to Adam Duvall or versatile Whit Merrifield to hold down a more regular role in left.

The bench, in general

A more speculative need here, but the Philadelphia bench doesn’t look like that of a repeat NLCS club with World Series aspirations. Stubbs hit .204/.274/.283 in 125 plate appearances last year — the polar opposite of a .264/.350/.462 slash he posted in a near-identical sample the preceding season. Cave hit just .212/.272/.348. Both have already been signed to the cheap 2024 deals I referenced earlier, but Stubbs has an option remaining and Cave would surely clear waivers and could be stashed in Triple-A as depth, should the Phils make a more substantial addition.

Pache and Edmundo Sosa represent a pair of strong defensive options for the outfield and infield, respectively, but neither has much of a bat (Pache’s solid 2023 showing in a tiny sample of 95 plate appearances notwithstanding). There’s some versatility here, with Pache being a plus defender at any outfield slot and Sosa capable at any of shortstop, second base and third base. But this is a weak group in terms of offensive potential, and a long-term injury to a regular would further expose that reality.

One possible scenario that could alter this mix would be to sign a full-time third baseman and push Alec Bohm into a reserve role. While the 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick popped 20 home runs and finished third on the club with 97 runs plated, there’s some reason to be skeptical of his ability to continue that level of run production. Bohm has excellent bat-to-ball skills and roughly average power, but the overwhelming bulk of his damage was done against lefties. He torched southpaws at a .303/.335/.594 clip (142 wRC+) but was effectively a singles hitter against righties (.263/.324/.377, 92 wRC+). His career splits paint a similar picture: .314/.362/.530 against lefties but .262/.311/.358 against righties.

If Bohm were a plus or even average defender, that offensive profile would carry him just fine. However, Bohm has been dinged for -46 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average at third base in his career. He might be a better fit at first base, but that belongs to Bryce Harper now.

Bohm clearly has a big league-caliber bat, but it’s easy to argue that he’s best deployed in a more limited role, given the shaky glove and punchless output against right-handed opposition. He’s only in his first year of arbitration and projected to earn $4.4MM (hat tip to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), so he’s plenty affordable in that role. But as he inches through arbitration, the price could begin to outpace his value if he racks up counting stats in an everyday role and doesn’t make substantive gains against right-handed pitching.

The Bohm scenario, to reiterate, is speculative in nature and not something to which Dombrowski has publicly alluded. But the third base market has names like Justin Turner, Matt Chapman and Gio Urshela in free agency, while there are several teams (Reds, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles) who have some infield surpluses that could present trade possibilities. There’s no glaring hole in the lineup here — as one might expect from a back-to-back LCS participant — but a more specialized role for Bohm could improve the roster in multiple ways. Alternatively, the Phils could add a third baseman and see if Bohm could fill that right-handed-hitting void in left field. The defense might not be pretty, but that’s already true as it is at third base.

Rotation depth

One current hangup, at least as pertains to Dombrowski’s quest to add more rotation depth, is that free agents look at the Phillies’ roster and don’t see an opportunity for a guaranteed rotation spot with Nola, Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez all locked in. Dombrowski noted to Lauber that he’s hopeful of eventually adding some veteran arms who’ll be willing to start the year in Triple-A and serve as rotation depth, but most pitchers of that ilk are still hoping for concrete spots with other teams who have more acute rotation needs.

The Phillies could very arguably benefit from signing an established veteran to a short-term (possibly one-year) pact and plugging him into the fifth spot in the rotation. However, Sanchez is out of minor league options, so he can’t simply be sent down to the minors. And, after he impressed with a 3.44 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and pristine 4% walk rate in 99 1/3 innings last year, he’s certainly earned a look. Dombrowski said as much earlier in the winter, noting in an appearance on MLB Network that if the club succeeded in re-signing Nola, the rotation would be “set” — largely because of a desire to take a full-season look at Sanchez after that impressive 2023 showing. That didn’t stop the Phillies from making an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he was viewed as something of an exception, given his age and upside.

The free-agent market should feature several recognizable names who’ll end up signing non-guaranteed deals. Predicting exactly who’ll be squeezed out of a big league deal requires some degree of guesswork, but rebound candidates like Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Keller and Yonny Chirinos come to mind as plausible possibilities.

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