MLBTR Mailbag

It’s been a busy today with the offseason officially getting underway, but we’ll still run out another edition of the weekly Monday Mailbag this evening. Last week’s edition touched on the likeliest outfield trade candidates of the winter, whether Jason Heyward and/or Pedro Alvarez would fit with the Orioles, whether or not Howie Kendrick and J.P. Howell factor into the Dodgers’ future and the Royals’ chances of re-signing Ben Zobrist and Alex Gordon.

If you have question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Sheer volume will prevent us from getting to every question, of course, though readers can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively.

Time for another MLBTR Mailbag! As always, thanks for the questions — if yours wasn’t answered this time, join in one of our weekly chats (Tuesday and Thursday, 2pm Central) for another shot.

On to the questions and answers …

We all know who the big free agents are this off-season and there has been much speculation on where the wind up. But, who do you think will be the 4 or 5 biggest names traded this off-season? Yasiel Puig appears to be the top candidate, but is he? Who else might join him? — Troy K.

I wouldn’t call Puig the “top trade candidate” of the offseason, but he’s a high-profile talent whose name does figure to be kicked around the rumor mill this winter. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him moved, but the Dodgers won’t sell low on him despite a down season.

A good place to start if you’re trying to find big-name offseason trade candidates is to parse the list of players that will be free agents following the 2016 season. Teams that control these players will almost certainly be far more willing to entertain offers due to the limited control they have left. The most intriguing name there is Stephen Strasburg, whose name has been mentioned previously as a possible offseason trade piece. That’s not to say it’s likely, but clubs looking to make a win-now splash will at least call GM Mike Rizzo. Neil Walker, Andrew Cashner, Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce all strike me as possibilities as well, though the latter two have club options to control them beyond 2016.

Tyson Ross and Craig Kimbrel will be discussed, as will Jonathan Lucroy, Adam Lind and perhaps even Todd Frazier, who has two years of club control remaining. Aroldis Chapman might be the likeliest elite name to change hands this offseason, as he has just one year of club control remaining, and the Reds don’t figure to contend in 2016.

If (when) the Orioles don’t bring Davis back would they consider (be in the running) for some like Heyward or Alex Gordon? — Dave S.

Jason Heyward’s probably going to cost as much or more than Davis, so he’s not a likelier consideration. Gordon probably comes cheaper due to his age, but it’d still require a franchise-record contract for Baltimore, probably in excess of $100MM. That seems pretty unlikely.

What do you think the O’s would have to give up to get Pedro Alvarez? — David K.

Not much, really, Alvarez is a non-tender candidate, so if the Orioles want to take on his arb salary and send a second-tier prospect or a pair of low-level lottery ticket minor leaguers to the Pirates, they’d probably have some interest. Alvarez has huge power, but he’s a very poor defender that doesn’t hit lefties and is going to cost a projected $8.1MM.

Do you think the Dodgers will try to bring back Kendrick or decide to go with young guys like Hernandez and/or Peraza? — Jeff D.

They’ll have interest, yeah. At one point during the season, there was talk that the Dodgers loved Kendrick enough to consider him an extension candidate. It’s a little difficult to imagine the Dodgers as the top bidder — that sentence felt strange to type — since they have other infield options in Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Jose Peraza and Enrique Hernandez that could fill in.

The only way Kendrick makes sense on a long-term deal, though — barring trades of any of the aforementioned infielders — is if Turner plays third in 2016 with Seager at shortstop and Kendrick at second base. Then, when Turner leaves as a free agent following the 2016 campaign, Seager moves to third with Peraza taking over at shortstop.

Given the needs they have throughout the rest of the roster, I don’t know that Kendrick should be a primary focus. Starting pitching and attempting to move an outfielder (specifically Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier) seem like bigger needs.

J.P. Howell’s 2016 club option has now vested to a player option.  Do you expect Howell to exercise his option and stay with Dodgers, or elect free agency for a longer contract? — Jesse P.

Howell’s excellence has kind of flown under the radar, but he’s coming off a three-year window with a 1.97 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a huge 58.3 percent ground-ball rate. Howell’s going to be 33 next year and was roughed up by right-handed hitters in 2015, but some of his platoon struggles were BABIP-related (.368), and his overall track record seems worthy of more than a one-year deal. I think he can opt out and find two years or maybe even work out a two-year deal with L.A. that cuts his annual salary but boosts his guarantee. After all, Andrew Friedman traded for Howell in 2006 as a 29-year-old GM and had him in the organization until 2012, when Howell hit the open market at season’s end. He knows Howell well and, presumably, would like to keep him around.

With salaries coming off of the books (Rios, Holland, Guthrie) will the Royals be able to sign both Gordon and Zobrist? — Kit M.

Those salaries are coming off the books (along with those of Gordon and Zobrist, at least for now), but even with those subtractions, the Royals have some significant increases in next year’s payroll. Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar will combine to earn $3.25MM more in 2016 than they did in 2015, and significant arbitration raises are in store for Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Danny Duffy and Jarrod Dyson. Before factoring in for league-minimum players to fill out the roster, Kansas City should have about $90.5MM on the books ($91.6MM if they tender a contract to Drew Butera).

Payroll could conceivably rise, with another World Series appearance providing a revenue boost, but Gordon is going to command an annual salary in the $20MM range, if not a bit higher. Signing him alone would put Kansas City above their Opening Day payroll from 2015, unless they shed salary elsewhere.

As for Zobrist, he’s shaping up as one of the most in-demand free agents of the offseason. His age places a cap on his earning potential, unlike some of the younger free agents on this year’s market (e.g. Jason Heyward), which could keep more teams in the bidding picture. On the one hand, that makes a return plausible for Kansas City; on the other, it’s not the Royals’ style to outbid the rest of the market in a competition like that.

Last winter, they diversified the risk of their offseason spending by giving one- and two-year deals to multiple free agents. That’s a more realistic expectation than re-signing Zobrist. Gordon could be the exception due to his status as a franchise icon, but there will be other clubs willing to pay him more than Kansas City can stomach.

Last week’s edition of the MLBTR Mailbag included questions on Yoenis Cespedes and the Cardinals, Joaquin Benoit’s club option, Dalton Pompey’s trade candidacy, the possibility of an Andre Ethier trade and the long-term outlook at third base for both the White Sox and Brewers.

We’ll run through another group of questions later today in this week’s mailbag, so if you have question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Sheer volume will prevent us from getting to every question, of course, though readers can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively.

It’s time for another round of the MLBTR Mailbag. Thanks to everyone who wrote in with questions, and apologies to those we couldn’t respond to.

With an early post season exit and the Cardinals offense on the decline for the last 2 years, do you see John Mabry being on the hot seat and having someone else take over as hitting coach? Also what are the chances of the Cardinals signing Yoenis Cespedes if Jason Heyward is too expensive? — Tim S.

Mabry’s already been invited back to coach in 2016, so the team clearly doesn’t feel an immediate need to make a change. Cespedes won’t be markedly cheaper than Heyward — I have him somewhere in the $150MM range — so if they’re going to spend at that level, it’d probably be for the younger guy with whom they’re already familiar.

Will the Padres pick up Joaquin Benoit’s option? He has been good the last couple of years but should the Padres pay 8 million for a 38 year old reliever? — Abraham S.

It’s not really an $8MM decision on Benoit, since he’s guaranteed at least a $1.5MM buyout on that salary. They’re basically deciding if he’s worth $6.5MM on a one-year deal, and his performance has been worth that. He’s probably not going to keep his BABIP as low as this year’s .182, and you can question whether or not he can post a fifth straight strand rate north of 80 percent. But, even with some regression to his career marks, Benoit will probably still be an above-average reliever. He drew interest at the trade deadline, and I can imagine that he’d generate interest as a trade candidate this winter even if their preferred route is to exercise the option and trade him.

We all know that Kevin Pillar exceeded expectation this season. There is no question that he and Revere will patrol the outfield next year. With Pillar and Revere being relatively young and under team control for the next few seasons, do you think that Dalton Pompey is still the Blue Jays center fielder of the future? If not, do you see him as a trade bait for the Jays this offseason? — Christophe L.

I do think you’ll see Pompey’s name mentioned in trade rumors this winter. Toronto has alternative options, as you note, and they also have significant needs on the pitching staff. The Blue Jays stand to lose David Price, Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle this offseason and could lose Drew Hutchison. On top of that, they traded MLB-ready arms in Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd to acquire Price and can’t necessarily pencil Drew Hutchison in for 180+ innings next season after his down year. Even if Aaron Sanchez is put back in the rotation, they’ll still have two, if not three rotation spots to fill. They can’t — or at least shouldn’t — expect to fill in the entire rotation via free agency, so if Pompey can help fetch a pitcher that will step into the rotation, he strikes me as a very logical trade candidate.

With the White Sox making it sound as if third base is a priority, who are some of the realistic trade options they could look to, seeing as the FA market seems thin? — Anthony P.

Beyond  free-agent options, which consist primarily of David Freese and Daniel Murphy, I can envision Trevor Plouffe, Luis Valbuena, Yunel Escobar, Martin Prado and Cody Asche all being available in trade. The Reds could end up listening on Todd Frazier, also, but the asking price on him would figure to be through the roof. Another option for Chicago will be Korean slugger Jae-gyun Hwang, if he is posted by his team — KBO’s Lotte Giants. Hwang hit .290/.350/.521 with 26 homers in 2015 and is said to be a solid defender at the hot corner. He’s an under-the-radar option for anyone needing third base help, but it’s not certain yet whether or not he’ll be posted. (More on that situation here.)

Assuming that Crawford’s contract will be almost impossible to unload this winter, what is the likelihood that Ethier could be moved? — Jeff D.

Crawford’s contract isn’t immovable, the Dodgers will just need to eat half or more of the remaining two years and ~$43MM on the deal. Matt Kemp’s contract was far more sizable, and we saw the Braves unload Melvin Upton last offseason as well. Eating half the salary would bring the commitment to about $21.5MM over two years, and while that’s too much, it’s a pretty manageable sum for a lot of teams.

That said, the Dodgers will probably listen to offers on Ethier as well, but at $38MM over the next two seasons and coming off a strong performance, his contract doesn’t look as unappealing as it did last winter. A platoon of Ethier and Enrique Hernandez or Ethier and Scott Van Slyke should be more than productive enough to get through a season.

Who could David Stearns use to fill the hole at third base long term for the Brewers? Is there any chance they could get Freese? — Chris W.

It doesn’t make much sense for the Brewers to sign Freese to a two- or three-year free agent deal when they’re not going to contend in 2016-17 anyhow. A longer-term deal for Hwang, mentioned above, would make some sense because he could be around by the time Milwaukee is contending once again, and there’s opportunity for a sizable amount of surplus value. If Milwaukee feels it can turn Asche around and get passable defense out of him at third base, he’s a reasonable long-term option as well. Asche brings the bonus of being a left-handed bat; much of Milwaukee’s long-term pieces are right-handed batters.

Last week’s MLBTR Mailbag featured questions on the Indians’ offseason search for a bat, the Phillies’ offseason, the Giants’ rotation needs, Ian Desmond as a fit for the Padres, Al Avila’s quest to rebuild the Detroit bullpen and the Braves’ approach to this winter’s free-agent market.

We’ll run through another handful of questions later today, so if you have a question that’s on your mind and would like our take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Questions, of course, are welcome at anytime throughout the week, and you can always participate in our Tuesday and Thursday afternoon chats as well. Obviously, we can’t get to every question that’s asked, but we’ll try to vary the topics as much as possible on a week-to-week basis.

Time for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. As always, apologies if we couldn’t get to your questions and thanks for sending them in!

Here are this week’s questions, with a reminder that you can submit questions for the mailbag at any time throughout the week via email (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com) …

With Cleveland unloading contracts of Swisher and Bourn, will they have the resources to go after the high-profile middle of the order bat that they desperately need? — Eric C.

They’ll have some increased flexibility, but they paid $15MM in that trade and also took on Chris Johnson’s salary, so they’re not likely to add a significant amount of money. We took a look at their upcoming offseason last week and suggested that trades were the likelier route. Names like Marcell Ozuna and, more improbably, Todd Frazier, make plenty of sense in theory. Going the free-agent route, they’re not going to afford the Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes caliber players, but some under-the-radar adds like John Jaso, Mike Napoli or Justin Morneau could pay dividends.

On their current trajectory, the Phillies are looking at 2018 or 2019 (at the earliest) before they are back in contention. Given the tremendous drop in attendance over the last 3 years, do you think that ownership may attempt to hurry things along by plugging some of their larger holes (RF, LF, SP, bullpen) with high to midrange priced free agents starting this off-season?  They certainly have the money to spend, and can’t be very happy with all the empty seats (and lost merchandise sales) at Citizens Bank Park. — Rod S.

It’s probably wise not to expect the Phils to be in the playoff hunt before 2018, but that may not end up being the case. Sure, the organization’s current “trajectory” is one of shedding obligations and adding young, unproven talent. But it won’t be long before a new GM will be looking to plug in MLB pieces that have current and future use, whether to speculate on upside or in the way that the Astros signed Scott Feldman and the Cubs inked Edwin Jackson in recent years.

In this case, an earlier turn back toward contention could make sense. Win-now moves obviously aren’t to be expected, but there’s no reason not to begin looking at quality big league additions with more than fill-in capacity in mind — so long as the club isn’t sacrificing its future flexibility or giving up young talent to do so. That wouldn’t necessarily be an attempt to “hurry things along” so much as to best leverage this particular team’s resources (i.e., its ample payroll space). Possible targets include players who have age and upside, whose market has failed to match their ability, or who offer high-risk/high-reward profiles.

Clearly the Giants must get at least one top of the rotation starter to pair with Madison Bumgarner. But who makes the most sense? And what other #2 or #3 starter might be available to also join the rotation given the Giants’ payroll? The assumption is that Jake Peavy and either Matt Cain or Chris Heston would fill out the #4 and #5 spots. — Peter L.

Adding two starters of that ability level — without breaking the bank, at least — is never easy. We’ve heard plenty about their interest in a reunion with Mike Leake, and he would presumably fit as the second type of arm that you mention. Presumably, the club could look at him as a solid mid-rotation piece who would eventually slot toward the back of the rotation as other pitchers age and depart the organization.  That might not happen, of course, but we know the Giants like him.

So, would they need to add an even better pitcher, as well, to contend with the Dodgers? That’s not entirely clear, but GM Bobby Evans did say recently that he wants his club’s staff to surpass that of their rivals to the south. Leake won’t be cheap, though, so it might be too much to ask to add him and a guy like David Price or Zack Greinke. If you want two high-end arms, maybe they could look to get better value from Johnny Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann, given that both failed to maximize their market positions heading into the winter. Or, San Francisco could roll the dice on someone like Scott Kazmir (long-term health) or Jeff Samardzija (recent performance).

Do you think the Padres have a realistic chance of signing Ian Desmond and acquiring a big, left-handed power bat in order to make waves in the west? — Ryan D.

Sure, that could make sense. The team needs to add a shortstop of some kind and A.J. Preller (along with ownership) aren’t afraid to make bold moves. Desmond offers quite a bit of upside even after a rough season. He still won’t be cheap, of course, but he’s probably the only long-term shortstop available via free agency and ought to be affordable for San Diego. (That might not have been the case if he had returned to his 2012 levels of output.)

But wait, you want a lefty slugger, too? This market really has just one of those — Chris Davis — and it’s questionable whether the Friars can squeeze in both him and Desmond into their payroll. They were at about $108MM to start 2015, and have around $75MM promised already for each of the next two seasons — before accounting for arbitration raises and options. Your plan might have to involve a trade for a left-handed bat to be financially viable, but that then raises the concern of giving up yet more young talent.

What route do you think Al Avila will go. Will he go for the really expensive, name-oriented closer, a la Nathan, or maybe someone under the radar like Darren O’Day? — William S.

Avila said recently that he doesn’t see any ace closers on the market, and he’s right. O’Day is probably the best reliever available, with Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria among the others in that mix. So, no, a free agent signing of even a Joe Nathan-type does not seem terribly likely, and the club could look to add one or more quality set-up men instead. There could also be some buy-low arms with closing experience; a guy like Addison Reed might hold some appeal if he’s non-tendered.

Of course, two of the very best arms in all of baseball — Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel — could well be had. Detroit would have to at least start a conversation if either of those names hits the trade market.

I’m wondering what type of starting pitcher you think the Braves will go after? Do you think a Jordan Zimmermann is too much too soon? Is maybe Doug Fister more likely? — Tristan W.

It’s not too soon for Atlanta to pursue a guy like Zimmermann, in large part because next year’s free agent pitching market is nowhere near as deep as this one. To an extent, you need to get your shopping done early.

But I’m not sure that the Braves will see a need for that, this year or next. It’s more likely that the Braves look for value than chase a top-end player. Now, if Zimmermann or another excellent pitcher languishes due to excess supply, Atlanta could jump. After all, they’ve shown a predilection to act opportunistically. That being said, if the Braves decide to go after a guy and pay a market rate, it might be more likely to occur on the position player side.

Atlanta has compiled quite a few interesting arms, and may be content allowing them to develop while filling in with veterans of Fister’s ilk. But as the acquisition of Hector Olivera and the earlier signing of Nick Markakis show, the club realizes that it has more work to do in assembling a group of capable position players.

Predictions would be foolish, but there are actually a fair number of buy-low type candidates among position players on this year’s free agent market. Likewise, some teams are going to cash in on starting pitching, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Atlanta look to deepen its staff on the cheap while also opening more flexibility to pursue the creative trades that have become the organization’s calling card in recent years.

Another Monday means another mailbag day at MLBTR. The most recent edition looked at possible pitching targets for the Pirates, Carlos Beltran’s Hall of Fame candidacy, the Tigers’ bullpen, and the disappointing campaigns of both the Padres and White Sox.

If you have a question and would like to hear our take on it, let us know via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Please note that we can’t possibly address every question, though we’ll try to get to a good chunk of the more popular topics. Feel free to send in questions throughout the week, and remember that you can ask anything we don’t get to here in one of two weekly chats (Tuesday with me and now also Thursdays with Jeff Todd).

It’s Monday, which means another MLBTR Mailbag post will hit the site later on this afternoon/evening. If you have a question you’d like to hear our take on here at MLBTR, let us know via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Due to the sheer volume of questions we receive, we can’t answer every question that comes in, unfortunately, but we’ll try to get to as many of the more popular topics or thought-provoking questions as possible.

Last week, topics discussed included a theoretical Bryce Harper extension (which spawned a subsequent poll and Instagram debate) as well the impact of Jerry Dipoto’s departure on the Angels, the Twins’ offseason, Jedd Gyorko as a shortstop option, Chris Davis’ chances of re-signing in Baltimore and Kyle Kendrick’s future.

Thanks as always for all of the questions, and feel free to ask any that we don’t get to in Tuesday afternoon’s weekly live chat.