MLBTR Mailbag

Much of free agency is in the books, but there are lots of players left as teams look to round out their rosters — and it seems that more international free agents are added to the mix everyday. In this week’s mailbag, we’ll take a look at some questions on the offseason transactions that still remain to be made:

Having seen your update on the MLBTR website regarding the Gurriel brothers out of Cuba, I wonder what teams fit the bill to pursue their talents over the calendar year. I’m a Phillies fan and wonder if Lourdes would be a good fit for them, despite having Maikel Franco at 3B and Crawford rising to the SS position. Would he fit in their left field plans? — Rob O.

Any club with a need in the infield and some money to spend makes sense when looking at Lourdes Gurriel, from my vantage point. The Phillies definitely fit that bill. As you pointed out, Franco and J.P. Crawford are believed to be the long-term answers at third base and shortstop, but it’d make sense for Philadelphia to at least have interest in adding Lourdes Gurriel as a second base option. Scott Kingery was one of their top picks in this most recent draft and may profile as a second base option down the line, but adding depth and talent at the position doesn’t hurt, and either could potentially be moved to left field in the future, if necessary. Alternatively, if Franco ultimately needs to play first base, that could open a spot at third base.

I do agree that Lourdes makes more sense than his older brother, Yulieski, for the Phillies. Yulieski will be 32 in June, so he’s on the older end of the spectrum for a rebuilding club like Philadelphia. Lourdes won’t be 23 until October, although I think that he’ll probably wait to sign until that point, as well, because turning 23 will make him exempt from international bonus pools.

Since their pick is protected and his market is seemingly coming down, why shouldn’t the Reds consider Yovani Gallardo? He could help the young pitchers and could possibly bring a good return at trade deadline. — Jeff L.

I can see the concept working out in the Reds’ favor, but I wouldn’t advocate them taking that gamble. Cincinnati would have to part with the No. 35 overall selection (the first pick in Comp Balance Round A) in order to sign Gallardo. There’s a scenario that’s not too difficult to envision where he signs for one year, pitches to a mid-3.00s ERA for three to four months and gets flipped for a prospect that carries more value than whomever the Reds would select at No. 35. Certainly, having traded both Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier, Cincinnati would be able to afford the deal.

However, there’s also a scenario where Gallardo’s recent decline continues. If his strikeout and walk rates keep going the wrong direction, or Gallardo gets hurt, the rebuilding Reds could end up sacrificing a valuable draft asset for an extra win or two in what could be a last-place season. That risk is probably too great in the mind of the front office. If anything, rolling the dice on someone like Chad Billingsley, Justin Masterson or any other formerly useful starter that has seen his career slowed by injuries makes more sense for Cincinnati.

Ultimately, it’s tough to see the Reds making any type of notable commitment. The Reds, after all, just lost out on re-signing Bronson Arroyo because their minor league offer didn’t beat the Nationals’ minor league offer: a $2MM base and $6MM worth of incentives. No matter how far Gallardo’s market has fallen, it hasn’t and won’t drop near that level, and even other once-established veterans seeking minor league deals could look for similar upside to the contract Arroyo landed in D.C.

Are the White Sox still making acquisitions this offseason?  If so, who are they targeting? If not, how do you forecast Avisail Garcia and Adam LaRoche for 2016?  Are Sox waiting for trade deadline to see if they are in contention to make a further move? — Matt B.

Since the New Year, they’ve been connected to Alex Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Dexter Fowler, Andre Ethier and Yasiel Puig, among others. There’s no real indication that the White Sox are done seeking a final upgrade after adding Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie in trades this offseason. Fowler is still the easiest fit, in my mind. He could make the Sox at least two wins better in 2016, and having traded Trayce Thompson, they could stand to add his athleticism to their outfield. Failing that, the Sox do seem like a good landing spot for Austin Jackson, even if he’s not the left-handed bat they’re reportedly seeking. Jackson would be a massive defensive upgrade over either Melky Cabrera or Garcia, and he wouldn’t require draft pick forfeiture. A one-year deal in Chicago would probably have some appeal to Jackson as well, considering the fact that U.S. Cellular Field is a hitter-friendly environment.

What is the best course of action for the Orioles pitching depth? — David D.

With the (presumably) limited financial resources the Orioles have remaining, I actually think their money is better spent on an outfield upgrade. Gallardo is probably the best free agent starter available on the market, but he’s not as much of an upgrade over the internal options in the fifth spot of the Baltimore rotation as Fowler or Jackson would be over Nolan Reimold, Ryan Flaherty and whatever other options the O’s are looking at in right field. Gallardo’s swinging strike rate was the seventh-lowest in the Majors among qualified starters last season, and he’s more of an innings-eating fourth starter than a difference-maker for a lacking rotation. I’d focus on adding the most value possible with the remaining dollars, then add depth options on minor league deals for pitchers with some upside. Mat Latos, Mike Minor, Tim Lincecum and Justin Masterson all come with upside, although each has obvious health concerns, and the Orioles carry a reputation for having a difficult physical to pass.

Are the A’s really done after just replacing Davis with Alonso and beefing up the bullpen? — Issac G.

You’re forgetting about the reacquisition of Jed Lowrie and the one-year signings of Henderson Alvarez and Rich Hill. Still, there’s enough rotation depth there — Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, Chris Bassitt, Jarrod Parker, Aaron Brooks, Felix Doubront, Hill and Alvarez (plus top prospect Sean Manaea) — that I can see them dealing from their rotation depth in order to add some further outfield depth in their outfield/DH mix.

What’s up with Pedro Alvarez? No AL team would like a 1B/DH? — Luke L.

Any ML team desperate enough for 25-35 HR to sign Alvarez to a 1 year contract and give him a third baseman’s glove? — Frank K.

Alvarez made 24 throwing errors in 873 innings innings at third base the last year he played there (2014). No team is going to give him regular at-bats there, and I doubt you’d find any that consider him much more than an emergency option at the hot corner. Alvarez is the perfect example of teams not valuing home runs and RBIs in the same way they did 10-15 years ago. There seem to be plenty of fans that disagree with the notion that Alvarez’s defensive shortcomings outweigh his power, but the market certainly doesn’t seem to agree. The Pirates didn’t find any takers for Alvarez and his $8.1MM projected salary, and agent Scott Boras has yet to generate huge interest in his client, it would seem.

Alvarez is hurt by the fact that many American League teams have set combinations at first base/DH. At this point, Alvarez might be the type of player who waits for an injury to pop up in Spring Training and sign a one-year deal with a club that loses a first baseman or designated hitter, because looking around the American League, most clubs are pretty set at those positions.

Thanks as always for the large volume of questions for this week’s mailbag. Before delving into this week’s questions, I’ll begin by stating (in light of a huge number of questions pertaining to these two) that it seems extremely unlikely for either Freddie Freeman or Jose Fernandez to be traded this offseason. Braves GM John Coppolella strongly denied the notion that he’d even entertain trading Freeman, and the Marlins would be selling low on one of the game’s premier pitching talents before he even becomes overly expensive. There’s clearly some level of animosity between agent Scott Boras and owner Jeffrey Loria/president David Samson, but the overwhelming media consensus since the initial mention of a Fernandez trade possibility is that the Marlins’ ace will remain in Miami, and that’s the expectation here as well.

On to this week’s topics…

“If the Twins were to trade Trevor Plouffe for a bullpen arm, what would a potential return be? What teams match up with the Twins for this hypothetical trade?” — Josh K.

The Angels stand out as the best fit to me and already have reported interest, with the Twins said to be intrigued by young right-hander Cam Bedrosian. He alone isn’t enough to land Plouffe, I wouldn’t think, but adding someone such as Trevor Gott, whose 96 mph fastball would fit the Twins’ desire of adding power arms, makes the notion more palatable. Plouffe has value as a solid defender at third with a league-average bat, but he’s not necessarily cheap and comes with only a couple years of team control remaining.

The White Sox have a clear need at third, but the two teams may not want to deal within the division. San Diego makes some sense as a fit, also, if they’re ready to move on from Will Middlebrooks and prefer to play Jedd Gyorko at second base while keeping Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg and Carlos Asuaje in utility roles. They have plenty of intriguing relief arms to discuss with Minnesota (e.g. Kevin Quackenbush, Brandon Maurer, Tayron Guerrero).

“Now that Brandon Crawford has been extended for 6/75, what is Brandon Belt’s value? He profiles similarly as a solid, albeit extremely streaky offensive threat, with elite defense for his position. Obviously that skillset is less appreciated at first base. What would a Belt extension be worth or conversely, what is his trade value for the Giants?” — Keevan T.

We have Belt projected at $6.2MM this winter, his third of four trips through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. Based on that, he’ll probably earn $9-10MM or so in his final arbitration year, so we’ll call it $16MM for his final two arb seasons. (Side note: a straight two, year, $15-16MM extension shouldn’t be entirely ruled out this winter, as the Giants have shown an affinity for locking in cost certainty without buying out free-agent years in the past.)

It’s hard to envision Belt’s agents at Excel Sports placing anything less than a $15MM value on his free-agent years. There’s a case to be made that he could earn more than that as a free agent right now, but he’s signing two years in advance, so there’s typically some form of trade-off. Freddie Freeman’s name probably gets dropped as a comp in these talks (Excel also reps Freeman), and his free-agent seasons cost about $21MM on average at the time of his signing. That was a rare pre-arb deal in which Freeman might not have taken too significant a hit in terms of pricing out his FA years, though, and I don’t think the Giants would be interested in paying Belt something like $19-20MM annually for those FA seasons.

Something in the vicinity of $83-85MM over six seasons would give Belt ~$17MM per free-agent season, but the Giants probably would have some hesitation due to his injury history and recent concussions. They’d probably try to drop the price down into the Crawford range based on that or knock a year off the contract entirely (something like five years, $65-67MM), but that could be viewed as too big a trade-off from the player side.

Belt probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his offense since he plays in one of the worst hitting environments in baseball, but his park-adjusted numbers suggest he’s been 30 percent better than a league-average bat over the past four seasons. That needs to fetch a young MLB contributor and further prospect value or at least one notable Top 50-ish prospect and some not-insignificant second-tier pieces. I realize that’s a highly generalized description of his trade value, but it’d be a fool’s errand to try to peg a specific team and return for his services.

“With the reports of the offers that Darren O’Day is getting from the Dodgers and Nationals among others, should the O’s have extended a qualifying offer to O’Day? Of course, the robust market is in part a result of him not having a QO, but it seems as though as the best reliever on the market and with strong bullpens being en vogue after the Royals’ run, he may have turned it down. Was the risk of him accepting just too high for the O’s?” — Dave S.

The fact that O’Day doesn’t have draft compensation tied to his name is a significant factor in his market. The only relievers we’ve seen reject a QO were David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. The former had a legitimate chance at the largest relief contract ever last offseason due to his save total, while the latter was coming off of a lights-out, 42-save campaign.

Saves aren’t compensated the way they used to be on the free-agent market. I do think they still inflate value, though, and O’Day’s numbers and age (he’s three years older than Robertson was when he hit the market) limit his earning power. $36MM is being mentioned as his absolute peak right now. If we assume something like 4/28 for his ultimate contract, then O’Day would be getting about 3/12 on top of a theoretical QO, which isn’t much for a pitcher of his talents and consistency. With that in mind, there’d have been a strong case for him taking the $15.8MM and trying again next winter.

“I’ve seen Daniel Murphy’s name connected to the Angels in many FA predictions/articles, obviously with good reason. His left handed bat could fill multiple holes in the Halos line-up and his versatility at 2B/3B seems to be just what Dr. Moreno/Eppler/Scioscia ordered. However, because he rejected a QO he’ll force the Angels to surrender their top pick (25th as of now). Is Murphy really worth the loss of that pick? Do you feel it makes more sense for the Angels to sign a top tier FA as a precursor to a Murphy signing in an effort to maximize their gains? Or is it more likely that Eppler holds the top pick due to it’s value as a building block for the future of his Angels?” — Jake T.

I do think it’s worth it for the Angels. Their farm system is in disarray at the moment right now, so I understand the want to preserve the pick. I feel like if Eppler were truly set on stockpiling picks, though, the qualifying offer would’ve been made to David Freese (who admittedly did have a case to accept but also one to reject as the only starting-caliber third baseman on the market). The Angels have also been loosely tied to names like Jason Heyward, who’d require draft pick forfeiture, and owner Arte Moreno has shown a willingness to spend to win now over building through the draft in the past. Murphy adds two or more wins to the Angels next season, balances out the lineup and could fit in at second or third base. He’s a great on-paper fit, and the Angels are clearly aiming to win in the near-term.

“Even after the Rays traded Nathan Karns, I’m getting the impression that they could trade another one of their young starting pieces. If they do, who do you think is most likely to go and what type of package could he net?” — Taylor L.

It’s not really Tampa Bay’s style to attach a bad contract — although given their lack of spending, they rarely have bad contracts — to something of value simply to clear payroll. They’d be selling low on Drew Smyly, Matt Moore or Alex Cobb, none of whom are expensive yet, and it’s tough to see them moving Jake Odorizzi, who isn’t even arb-eligible yet. Erasmo Ramirez makes more sense to me. I can envision the Rays feeling as though they acquired him, built up his value and profited off his strong season just before he begins to get expensive. They can probably get more than Mike Montgomery back for Ramirez at this point, and that was the initial cost of acquisition.

“What are your thoughts on the market for J.A. Happ? Initially, I thought 2/20 to 24 range would get it done. However, the fact he doesnt require draft pick compensation makes him a bit more attractive, no? Is he in that 3/30 range and upwards?” — Nathaniel M.

Happ’s in that 3/30 range for me after the turnaround he had in Pittsburgh. That might be more than the Pirates care to pay to retain him based on the short sample of dominance he had there, but I have to imagine he feels the Bucs were a large part of the success he had. And, we saw the Pirates pony up with $39MM for Francisco Liriano after he revitalized his career there. That Happ doesn’t require draft pick compensation does work in his favor, as does the shorter term for which he can be had.

With the offseason underway and multiple blockbuster trades already in the books, let’s dive into another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag…

I was wondering what the return for Freddie Freeman would look like. Since I am a Pirates fan, and am asking within that context, then what would the Pirates need to offer to get a deal done? — Kellen H.

No fewer than a dozen questions asking about the Pirates and Freeman this week. Sorry to disappoint Pirates fans, but I don’t see a realistic way that it gets done. Freeman is owed $118.5MM over the next six seasons, which is just about double the largest contract in Pirates franchise history. Add that to the likely prospect price — one would imagine names like Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, Reese McGuire, Jameson Taillon, etc. coming up in talks — and it’s just not realistic, barring a huge shift in the Pittsburgh payroll.

With the Angels trading their top two minor league prospects to Atlanta for Simmons, are they in a position to acquire any offense via trade (i.e. Trevor Plouffe, Brett Gardner, Todd Frazier)? Or are the Angels relegated to Free Agent spending? Did they spend Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis wisely or could they have gotten more for the pair (i.e. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig)? — Marcus R.

I liked the Simmons deal for the Angels quite a bit and wholeheartedly disagree with the suggestion that Jay Bruce would’ve been “more” to get for Newcomb/Ellis.

The Angels probably don’t have a ton of pieces to move for Frazier — the Reds are looking for controllable, MLB-ready players and the Angels are thin in such types of impact talent, especially on the position-player side of things. Plouffe could potentially be had for a pair of power bullpen arms, though, and Gardner could be attainable as well, though the Angels probably don’t want to surrender any more starting pitching, and I’d imagine that’s the ask for him.

How do you think the Mets are going to replace the power in their lineup from the departure of Cespedes and Murphy. Is Ian Desmond an option for them? — Jonathan V.

They don’t really need to replace Murphy’s power. His postseason performance was never sustainable, and he’s never had that much pop. Murphy is consistently about 5-10 percent above the league average in terms of park-adjusted offense, which is valuable but not irreplaceable. The Mets were already contending without Cespedes, so I don’t think they suddenly need to scramble to find a 35-homer bat or anything, either.

The Mets will have full seasons of Syndergaard, Matz and Conforto next season, and that alone should make up for much of the value lost when Cespedes signs elsewhere. The team had a down performance from Dillon Gee for the early portion of the season and lackluster numbers from guys like John Mayberry, Darrell Ceciliani and Kirk Nieuwenhuis before Cespedes and Conforto came onto the scene. Full years of their young players will replace a large portion of the value brought to the table by Cespedes.

All that said, I can see them making a play for Desmond, but he’s not going to bring Cespedes-style power to the picture for them or anything.

With the probable 2016 returns of Jose Fernandez and Henderson Alvarez, I believe the Marlins will be in a good spot to at least contend for a NL Wild Card Spot, given both Fernandez and Alvarez are healthy. They also would need one other quality starter in the rotation. Is it probable that the Marlins will seriously  pursue some of the quality starters on the market such as Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen, Jordan Zimmerman or Yovani Gallardo? — Jamil V.

That’s a more bullish view than I have on the current iteration of the Marlins, but nonetheless I do think they’ll be in the market for a mid-rotation starter. I picked them to sign J.A. Happ in our free agent prediction contest. Happ had a huge breakout with the Pirates, and the Marlins hired special assistant Jim Benedict — who played an integral role in advance scouting and working with the pitchers in Pittsburgh — away from the Bucs this winter. The Marlins can reportedly spend around $12MM annually on a pitcher this winter, and I think Happ will come in a bit south of that AAV anyhow.

If not him, then yeah, I can see Gallardo being in play. Chen and certainly Zimmermann will command annual values out the Marlins’ comfort zone, and Kazmir could fit that description as well. Miami could reasonably make plays for either Ian Kennedy or Mike Pelfrey from a financial standpoint, but they may not be keen on dealing with Scott Boras (who represents those two and Chen as well) after the recent anger expressed toward Boras by president David Samson.

What do you think its going to take for the Rangers to get a solid catcher this year? — Mike C.

I think they already have one in Robinson Chirinos. He doesn’t hit for much average, but a .232/.325/.438 batting line out of a catcher is pretty strong. Chirinos’ production was slightly above that of a league-average hitter and worlds better than a league-average catcher. The league-average batting line for a catcher in 2015 was .238/.302/.376, so Chirinos got on base at an above-average clip and showed considerably more power than most backstops. He’s also caught 31 percent of base-stealers in his career and improved his pitch-framing skills in 2015. He could improve defensively, but you could do a lot worse than Chirinos as the primary catcher.

In light of the Craig Kimbrel trade, what kind of return can Cincinnati expect on Aroldis Chapman? With just one year of control, compared to three for Kimbrel, will the Reds receive significantly less than the Red Sox gave the Padres? — Tim S.

Yeah, the return on Chapman is going to be less than what the Padres received for Kimbrel. Even if the contracts were closer to even, it’d be really hard for me to imagine a team paying more than Boston did for Kimbrel — that was quite a bit to give up, even for a reliever that dominant. The Reds want MLB-ready players, and looking at their roster, outfielders seem like a potential area of focus (especially if Jay Bruce is traded this winter). For me, you’re looking at one MLB-ready position player and maybe another lower-level piece or two, with the secondary portion of the return dependent upon the quality of the headliner.