MLBTR Mailbag

Thanks to everyone who wrote in with questions. We aren’t able to get to them all, but remember that you can also join one of our three weekly chats — Jason Martinez kicked off his first session this evening, while Steve runs Tuesdays and I have Thursdays (all at 2pm CST) — to try again.

On to this week’s questions:

The Mariners are making a big push, but I feel they could still use outfield help, a shortstop, and another starting pitcher. What might they do in the next two weeks? — Nick G.

That’s quite a wish list! Most every contending team could still stand to improve, but it takes greater creativity in the month of August. While Seattle made a good effort to upgrade at short by adding Zack Cozart, that’s a tough player to get (reasonable salary, future control) this time of year. The situation is somewhat different now, as the M’s are in good position with their recent play, but it’s unlikely they’ll be able to address all three areas you cite.

GM Jerry Dipoto should be willing to consider opportunities anywhere in those three spots, and I’d also suggest that first base is at least as worthwhile an area to target. That may sound like a cop-out, but the fact is there isn’t a totally clear problem with a ready solution. Jamex Paxton shouldn’t be out for long and Taijuan Walker remains a high-upside option in the staff, and it’s probably not realistic to think a higher-octane arm can be found. Short is still ripe for short-term improvement (at least by supplementing Ketel Marte), but where will it come from? Cozart will be hard logistically, Erick Aybar was already dealt, Jed Lowrie is out for the year, and Yunel Escobar hasn’t played there in years. The outfield mix isn’t perfect, but it’s functional and flexible. Then, there’s the Adam Lind/Dae-ho Lee platoon, which has been a below-replacement-level unit but perhaps is better than the results.

Given that there probably isn’t a need or an opportunity to go get a single player who takes over full-time at a single position, perhaps the M’s can instead seek a more flexible piece. Someone like Danny Valencia of the division-rival A’s might be a sensible target, as he’d add another weapon with the bat while offering the ability to play the corner infield or outfield (albeit not very well).

[Related: Mariners Depth Chart]

How come after the Padres made all those trades to make room for Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot they are still in the minors? — Anonymous

In a way, San Diego’s activity has been about clearing the deck for players like those you mentioned, though the greater motivation was to move salary and pick up some new talent. To the extent that the Pads were opening opportunity, though, it didn’t need to go to those specific pieces right off of the bat.

In a way, perhaps, San Diego has less cause to see what it has in those guys than it does the slightly older ones who are playing in the majors right now. GM A.J. Preller added many of them himself in recent years, and seems interested in giving them a full look at the game’s highest level before deciding how the roster will change this winter. Christian Bethancourt, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf, Jabari Blash, and Travis Jankowski won’t ultimately block the development of Hedges, Renfroe, and Margot, but San Diego won’t know if they’re worth keeping if they don’t see extended action.

Some or all of your trio ought to make it up in the coming weeks, but there’s no real rush. None have yet completed a full season at Triple-A, and all have elements of their game still to be ironed out. Holding them down now also limits their accumulation of service time, which increases the team’s opportunities to add an extra year of control down the line.

[Related: Padres Depth Chart]

While it took longer than expected, Braves did the unthinkable and traded off Erick Aybar. Given the injuries to outfielders across baseball right now, do you see an opportunity for another August trade? — Mike G.

Both Jeff Francoeur and Nick Markakis are among the more likely trade candidates in the game this month — both landed on MLBTR’s recent top twenty list. Both players are eminently tradeable, both because of their waiver situation (Francoeur cleared, while Markakis surely has or will) and Atlanta’s general situation. With Matt Kemp joining Ender Inciarte and Mallex Smith as future options, and with a coming free agent market offering a variety of new possibilities, there’s no reason to think that the Braves need to keep either of those veterans.

That being said, there’s no guarantee that either or both will move. Francoeur is carrying a .251/.293/.389 slash with typically heavy platoon splits, so he’d represent something like a fifth outfield option for a contender that could use a right-handed bat. Markakis is in the same general situation but hits from the left side and is a better hitter — though he’s really a league-average bat as an everyday player. In his case, though, working out the salary (another $21MM over the next two years) makes things tricky.

Demand will play a role, as you rightly suggest, but that all depends upon how contending teams’ front offices feel about these particular players, neither of whom looks to be more than a bench piece for a team with designs on the post-season.

[Related: Braves Depth Chart]

What should the White Sox be doing this offseason?  I feel a lot of changes coming with the coaching staff and as much as it pains me to say, I think it’s time to hop on the rebuild train. — Ryan

Chicago didn’t elect to pull the trigger on any significant deadline deals, but you’re right that the team could still do so this winter. The team certainly has something to offer in quite a few areas.

Chris Sale and Jose Quintanta, especially, would surely draw immense interest given a coming market that’s largely devoid of high-end starting pitching. Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, and Melky Cabrera represent quality (albeit expensive) one-year rental position players, while David Robertson could make sense as a two-year piece for the right club. Then there’s Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu, each of whom could be pursued — especially the former.

That’s quite a few pieces to move — and quite a few quality assets for a big-market team that probably doesn’t wish to embark upon a full rebuild. It’s a tough spot, though, because there isn’t a ton of payroll flexibility. The South Siders already have $74MM and change committed for 2017 and will approach $100MM with arbitration raises. And going for it next year would probably mean adding at least one outfielder, another bat, and a catcher while also bolstering the pitching staff. With a payroll that typically resides in the $115MM to $120MM range, that could mean taking some chances on non-premium veterans — which is precisely the strategy that has failed to pan out in recent years.

All things considered, it’s hard to say what the Sox “should” do. Certainly, it makes sense to explore whether a targeted trade or two might add multiple talented players who are at or near MLB readiness without crippling the ability to contend in the near-term. But that would require at least a partial break-up of the current core and may be a half-measure. Otherwise, both of the more committing options in the buy/rebuild poles carry serious downside. One suspects that this is precisely the internal debate currently being had in the Chicago front office.

[Related: White Sox Depth Chart]

Happy Opening Day! (Well, for most of the league, anyway … .) We’re gearing up for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag after taking a few weeks off with Steve Adams on vacation. He’s back and we’re ready to take your questions as the season gets started.

If you have a question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every one, of course, but remember that you can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by Steve and myself, respectively. Also remember that Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them at any time.

It’s Monday, which means we’re gearing up for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. In last week’s edition, Jeff Todd tackled questions on Jay Bruce, the Royals’ right field situation, the best value signings of the offseason, pre-arb salaries, Erick Aybar and a crowded A’s roster.

If you have a question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every question, of course, but remember that you can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff, respectively. Also remember that Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them at any time.

Time for this week’s MLBTR Mailbag! Thanks for all the questions, and sorry if we couldn’t get to yours. (It was great to see many first-time submissions this week; we always enjoy hearing a little bit about your motivations to write in!) Remember that you can also chat with Steve Adams and myself on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, respectively, and tune in to MLBTR’s weekly podcast every Thursday.

On to the questions …

Will Jay Bruce be traded before the season starts? — Jason R.

Well, the Orioles now look to be out of the market after adding Pedro Alvarez, and barring a revival of talks with the Blue Jays that option may be gone. I don’t see the Angels taking on enough salary to make that a viable landing spot, and the same holds for the Indians. The White Sox might have made sense, but now they’ve got Austin Jackson.

Looking around the league, I’m not sure I see an immediate match. An injury could always change things, of course, but as it stands it looks like the Reds will need to hope that Bruce has a strong first half and see how the summer trade market develops.

The Royals have three AAA outfielders on their 40-man roster, who all delivered great offensive numbers last year: Brett Eibner, Reymond Fuentes and Jose Martinez. But nobody is talking about them as a potential RF for the Royals. Do they have any flaws? Or what is the problem? — Holger B.

Writing in from Germany is a sure way to get your question answered! Thanks for reading all the way over in Europe.

In a way, I have to disagree with the premise of the question, because I think that people following the club closely are well aware that these guys are in the mix with Jarrod Dyson going down. All are on the 40-man, which means the team has something invested and believes they have at least some near-term and/or potential future value to the organization. And let’s be honest: the competition should be wide open at this point. Travis Snider is the most established choice to platoon with Paulo Orlando, who played a big role last year, but neither is a surefire option.

Do Eibner, Fuentes, and Martinez have flaws? Well, sure. Any player does, and none of them even cracked the top 15 of Baseball America’s recently-released organizational prospect rankings — though Eibner and Martinez landed on the back half of the list. Both of those players hit from the right side and had impressive seasons last year at Triple-A, so they could presumably push Orlando for his role or challenge for a final bench spot. Fuentes, meanwhile, will be squared up against Snider. He’s a speedy player who swings from the left side, making him a closer match to Dyson’s skillset. 

Beyond that, you’d need to ask a prospect hound or team beat writer for more info. I think what’s most interesting here is that Kansas City could open the year with some of the names noted above in significant spots. While that seems sub-optimal from my perspective, I’ve learned not to question the Dayton Moore-Ned Yost magic. And if nothing else there are plenty of possibilities; second base still seems to me a bigger overall organizational question mark.

Now that most of the top 50 FAs have signed who do you feel is the best value for their respective team? — Jake

Okay, I think I’m ready to go on record here. Your question touches upon both value from a market perspective and organizational fit, so I’ll address it in that way. Thus, even if I were to believe that Ian Desmond represents a bargain at $8MM — which I do — I don’t think I’d choose him since he is obviously a bit of an experiment in the outfield.

Among MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — all of whom have now signed except for David Freese and Justin Morneau — I’m going to pick …. well, I’m going to pick the city of Chicago. Getting Austin Jackson and Mat Latos for just $8MM in total, without sacrificing a draft pick, looks like a coup for the White Sox. The organization needed to add a lot of pieces, and managed to do it at a minimal cost through these signings and a couple of trades. Sure, there’s plenty of risk, but both look like outstanding values as younger players with plenty at stake. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ additions of Dexter Fowler and John Lackey are two other deals I quite liked, and I’m also fairly bullish on the more significant investments that the team made in Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. Honorable mention: Matt Wieters to the Orioles, by way of qualifying offer acceptance.

Do you think with all the publicity about Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom’s salary for 2016, that we could see a change to pre-arbitration salaries in the new CBA? — Nicolas C.

I think we will, but not necessarily due to Cole and deGrom in particular. All of the rules governing player salaries, from the league minimum to the qualifying offer, function primarily to shift around the overall chunk of the game’s money that is allocated to players, and it’s been clear for some time now that the players in the pre-arb service classes are increasingly underpaid. The divide is all the more glaring given the huge contributions that young stars (and plenty of other quality players) have made not long after cracking the majors. It’s time for a bump, if not also some other modifications to the ways in which pre-arb salaries are arrived at.

Would Erick Aybar be a fit to fill in while Jhonny Peralta mends for the Redbirds? If so, what might the Braves get in return and would Coppy do it?

There’s little question that the Atlanta front office will listen to any interest in basically any of its players — they dealt Craig Kimbrel the day before the season started last year, after all — and I don’t doubt that this kind of scenario was contemplated when Aybar was added in the Andrelton Simmons deal. In the grand scheme of things, trading Aybar would hardly warrant outrage from the Braves fanbase with Kimbrel, Simmons, and so many others already gone. And it isn’t hard to see a plausible match from the Cardinals’ side, since Jedd Gyorko has no track record at short, the team is obviously set up to compete right now, and the NL Central may be out of reach with a slow start.

That being said, I wouldn’t expect a deal to come easy. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs suggested Aybar as a replacement, but rightly noted that the Braves probably aren’t as motivated to part with him right now as one might expect. The organization wants to begin moving in the right direction, and relying on options like Daniel Castro, Chase d’Arnaud, and Reid Brignac to open the year at short is probably not the best way to put a winning product on the field. And they’d obviously face the same barren open market situation as the Cards if they went looking for an alternative.

I’m not going to guess at precisely what St. Louis would need to offer up to get the Braves to bite, but I’m willing to bet that it won’t be terribly palatable. Atlanta would probably find it less painful to deal Aybar at the deadline, assuming the club isn’t firmly in contention, and would likely be looking for some legitimate upside in return to do a deal now. Steve Adams just ran down a whole host of possible options for the Cards to consider, and it looks to me as if one or more of the other names on his list will ultimately shake loose at a much lower price tag. If Peralta’s outlook for a return is fairly positive, the need might only be for a temporary stopgap, so the guess here is that St. Louis waits for someone else to become available. (And if all else fails, surely the Yankees would part with Pete Kozma?)

The A’s roster seems a little too full.  Is there a trade coming? — Isaac G.

Predicting the Oakland front office is a fool’s errand, but I’d be surprised if it felt the need to shed any depth. That’s not to say that you won’t see players depart, possibly by way of minor trades, especially if there aren’t any significant injuries. But that’s more likely to be driven by roster constraints — guys who are out of options, minor league free agents with opt-outs, etc. — than by any decision to cash in assets. It’s rare enough to see significant springtime deals as it is, and Oakland will surely prefer to maintain flexibility entering the year.

It’s Monday, which means we’re gearing up for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. In last week’s edition, Jeff Todd and I fielded questions on the Craig Kimbrel trade, Ian Desmond’s contract with the Rangers, a theoretical Manny Machado extension, the Royals’ right field situation and the Braves’ rotation.

If you have a question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every question, of course, but remember that you can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively. Also remember that Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them at any time.

With camp well underway, let’s dive into this week’s mailbag questions:

How would you compare the prospects the Padres gave up to acquire Craig Kimbrel to the ones they received? — Jeremy B.

The prospects the Padres received from the Red Sox in exchange for Kimbrel are widely considered to be better than the prospects they surrendered, but that’s because a large part of value the Padres provided to the Braves in order to get Kimbrel was to take on the remaining salary on Melvin Upton’s contract. Including the money owed to Kimbrel himself, the Padres took on about $56MM in that trade, which carried huge value to the Braves. The Padres also gave up the 41st pick in the 2015 draft, their Competitive Balance Round A selection. They received more prospect capital than they surrendered, but they still have an expensive Upton on their books, and the loss of the pick in last year’s draft also detracted from the club’s farm system.

With Ian Desmond taking a one year $8 million dollar deal, I’m very curious as to why the Detroit Tigers didn’t try and get him. They basically have a  replacement level playing at third base in Nick Castellanos, and a very talented yet injury prone shortstop in Jose Iglesias, both positions that Desmond can play. The Tigers also have a protected pick so that wouldn’t have been an issue. Do they really think Andrew Romine and Mike Aviles are better options than Ian Desmond? If so, I would have to totally disagree. — Broc R.

I agree with the general assessment, and not just from the Tigers’ vantage point. At $8MM, Desmond looks to be a strong buy — albeit moreso if he was being used in the infield. In today’s free-agent market, $8MM doesn’t typically get a player with the upside Desmond brings. That’s the same annual rate with half the commitment that the Tigers doled out to Mike Pelfrey, and it’s the range of what the Mets and Rangers paid for Bartolo Colon and Colby Lewis, respectively — a pair of aging fifth starters. True, Desmond required draft pick compensation, but the actual cost of that hit varies quite a bit from team to team. Recognizing that it’s much more difficult to spend $8MM in late February than it is earlier in the winter — clubs have their payrolls closer to maxed out now, 40-man roster spots are at more of a premium, etc. — the pure return on investment the Rangers can get from this deal is considerably more than most $8MM investments.

I’m sure Detroit is higher on Castellanos than you are, and there’s no reason to sign someone to play over Iglesias, so long as he projects to be healthy. But the Desmond contract has the potential to be one of the better buys of the offseason, even with the defensive question marks that come along with a new position.

Manny Machado recently told beat reporters he would “hope they keep me here long term.” What kind of contract extension would Machado be looking at if the O’s moved on it before this season? During the season? Waiting until after the season? — Carlos O.

Machado is earning $5MM after avoiding arbitration for the first time this winter, and he’s statistically close enough to Josh Donaldson that I don’t mind using the two for a rough comparison. Donaldson signed his second and third arbitration years away for a combined $28.65MM, and also had the benefit of qualifying as a Super Two to boost his starting point. Machado doesn’t have an MVP or 40-homer season under his belt, and he hasn’t played his first full arbitration season yet, so we can probably discount Donaldson’s deal somewhat when looking at the arb years. That being said, I don’t think $26MM for Machado’s final two arbitration seasons is outlandish, and from there you have to look at pricing him as an elite talent — something along the lines of $25MM+ per season — who is set to hit the market in advance of his age-26 season.

Quite honestly, I don’t even see how an extension is possible without the Orioles caving on their stance against opt-out clauses. The way the game is trending, especially in terms of long-term contracts for young players, an opt-out would seem almost like a requirement. Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Clayton Kershaw, Masahiro Tanaka, Elvis Andrus, and Justin Upton all represent players that signed long term contracts at young ages (whether via free agency or extension), and each secured an opt-out clause in his deal. If the 2015 season, or even 90 percent of that production, becomes the norm for Machado going forward, he should have an easy case for $300MM or more in free agency. Given that, an extension for him right now should easily top $200MM and include an opt-out clause after his second and/or third would-be free-agent year. Given his age, and with two 6+ WAR seasons already under his belt, Machado’s agents could be looking to the Stanton contract as a comparable (though it was signed one service year later in his career).

Do you think the Royals will stick with Jarrod Dyson in RF? Or do you see them possibly picking up one of the left-over outfielders still on the market on a one-year deal – such as Austin Jackson, bringing back Alex Rios, David DeJesus? – Matthew G.

I touched upon this idea earlier today in breaking down Jackson’s market. Adding him seems plausible in theory, but in practice I’m not sure I see it happening. (Neither, perhaps, do our readers; Kansas City currently sits in last place in the poll for a Jackson landing spot — behind eight clubs and “other.”) While the newly free-spending team has shown an increased ability and willingness to spend, that doesn’t mean it will be willing to plunk down a few million bucks (or more) for a roll of the dice on AJax — especially since second base is probably a bigger need and others could well arise over the course of the season. Plus, for Jackson, there’s probably more to be gained by seeking an opportunity at more certain playing time on a team that will deploy him in center.

That’s not to say that another addition doesn’t make sense, but there’s probably more bang for the buck in focusing on ensuring a good mate to go with Dyson, who is sort of a perfect platoon outfielder. He hits well enough against right-handed pitching for his speed and defense to make him a valuable contributor. And while he’s not useful when a southpaw is on the hill to start a game, he’s quite an asset off the bench as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. That obviously lines him up well to pair with a right-handed hitter — possibly one that has limitations in the areas that Dyson has strengths. On the other side of the equation, there are times when a lumbering right-handed slugger would make for a great pinch-hitter to spell Dyson.

So far, the Royals have seemed happy to give that role to Paulo Orlando, who is a somewhat less extreme, right-handed-hitting version of Dyson himself. (He managed 1.0 fWAR in 251 plate appearances last year based on his contributions in the field and on the bases.) But they could certainly stand to add some competition in that regard, and there are some interesting names still out there who could be interesting additions to the mix — at least, that is, if any is willing to accept a reduced role (and possibly come in on a minor league deal). Rios could theoretically fit, as could Chris Denorfia. Both have good career batting numbers against opposing lefties, and despite sub-par offensive platforms did turn in solid seasons with the glove last year. The volatile but generally lefty-mashing Ryan Raburn also remains available, as does Marlon Byrd, who’s coming off a year in which he put up a 121 wRC+ against southpaws.

What should we expect from the Braves starting rotation this year? It appears that Julio Teheran, Matt Wisler, and Bud Norris will have three of the spots coming out of spring training but what else should we expect? Think Aaron Blair could win a spot out of spring training? — Tim B.

It’s hard to set many clear expectations for this unit, because there’s all manner of uncertainty in the staff — and that figures to continue all season long. Teheran is the only guy who seems a complete lock as camp opens, but he also remains a trade candidate for an organization that has proven willing to strike deals at any point in time. (Let’s not forget that first Kimbrel trade discussed above.) Norris and Wisler do indeed seem lined up for jobs, though neither is at all certain to stay there. The former could end up being shifted to the pen or another team, depending upon how things progress, while the latter still has a lot to prove after a less-than-dominant debut last year.

Beyond that group, it’s an open competition. Blair is obviously an intriguing talent, but it seems rather unlikely that he’ll appear on the Opening Day roster — even if he impresses this spring. For one thing, he isn’t on the 40-man roster. For another, even a brief stint in Triple-A would delay his service clock. For what it’s worth, those same considerations apply to two other young, talented pitchers who are in big league camp: Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims.

If you’re hoping to see young arms with some upside emerge to earn rotation spots in camp, Manny Banuelos and Mike Foltynewicz have clearer paths since they’ve already cracked the majors. (Folty is still working back from a bout with blood clots, but he’s said to be progressing well.) Among the other younger starters who are already on the 40-man, only Casey Kelly and Ryan Weber made it up to the majors last year (both for brief stints).

The bet here is that the competition for the final two spots will come down to Banuelos, the young but generally lightly-regarded Williams Perez, and the club’s slate of minor league free agents. Atlanta must’ve promised Kyle Kendrick a real shot at earning a job to woo him this winter, and Jhoulys Chacin is another established veteran in camp. Either or both could conceivably end up on the staff. David Holmberg and Chris Volstad also have appeared in several MLB seasons, though they seem more likely to serve as swingman-capable depth pieces than members of the starting five coming out of camp.

It’s Monday, which means we’re gearing up for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. In last week’s edition, Charlie Wilmoth and I fielded questions on the qualifying offer system, Blake Snell, Khris Davis/the A’s, Mark Melancon, the Angels and Austin Jackson.

If you have a question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We can’t get to every question, of course, but remember that you can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff Todd, respectively. (This Thursday’s chat should be back on now that Jeff has made his triumphant return from a vacation to the U.K. — hooray!) Also remember that Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them at any time.

It’s Monday, which means we’re gearing up for another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. In last week’s edition, Jeff Todd and I fielded questions on the Cardinals, international prospect agreements, Juan Uribe, Justin Morneau, the Orioles’ farm system and the ongoing MASN television rights fee dispute between the O’s and Nats.

If you have a question you’ve been mulling over and would like MLBTR’s take, let us know: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Sheer volume will prevent us from getting to every question, of course, though readers can also send questions our way on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons in the weekly live chats hosted by myself and Jeff, respectively (though I should note that Jeff is gracing Wales with his presence on vacation this week). Also remember that Mailbag questions are welcome throughout the week, so feel free to send them at any time.