MLBTR Mailbag

For the most recent edition(s) of the MLBTR Mailbag, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd fielded questions on the Cardinals’ search for a bat, whether the Pirates are at a crossroads, the heavily active August trade period and the Giants’ offseason.

We also published a second special edition hosted by Twins right-hander Trevor May, who has been contributing to MLBTR’s Players’ Perspective series while working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Trevor gave perspective into his rehab from a major surgery, the feeling of being traded (from Philadelphia to Minnesota in 2012), pitch counts/innings limits and much more.

Onto this week’s questions…

What do you think J.D. Martinez’s earning potential will be in free agency? Do the Diamondbacks have a real chance to resign JD and if not which teams do you think will hold the most interest? — John H.

The D-backs’ ability to re-sign Martinez is one of the single most popular topics in our MLBTR chats, the Mailbag and on Twitter. Considering the fact that he’s batted .289/.358/.732 with 24 homers in 212 plate appearances since being traded to Arizona, it’s not especially surprising to see Diamondbacks fans extremely interested in whether the team will be able to retain him.

Unfortunately for D-backs fans, I’m not sure how they’ll be able to reasonably afford Martinez beyond 2017. Arizona opened the 2017 season with a payroll just north of $100MM, and they already have about $60MM committed to Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt and Jeff Mathis next season. That would seem to indicate that there’s some room, but Arizona has one of the most significant arbitration classes in recent history as well.

The Diamondbacks will have A.J. Pollock, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Randall Delgado, Chris Owings, Taijuan Walker, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Nick Ahmed, Andrew Chafin, Chris Herrmann, J.J. Hoover and T.J. McFarland as arbitration-eligible players this winter. While Herrmann, Hoover and McFarland could all be non-tender candidates, core contributors make up the bulk of that group. Arbitration alone could push Arizona’s payroll beyond its 2017 Opening Day mark before they add a single player.

A deep postseason run could give the D-backs some extra financial help, the team inked a television contract worth more than a billion dollars back in 2015, and there’s still the matter of a new stadium, so it’s possible that there’s room for the payroll to advance. But, Martinez is probably looking at a minimum of a five-year deal in free agency — if not six years — at an average annual value that could land in the $23-26MM range. The D-backs would need an enormous payroll spike to realistically be able to retain Martinez.

The Snakes could try to shed some of Tomas’ contract to clear a bit of room, but doing so would very likely require paying a significant portion of the remaining contract. The team could also try to heavily backload a hypothetical Martinez contract, though that presents the possibility of paying more than $60MM annually to just Martinez and Greinke in the latter stages of their respective contracts. Frankly, I just don’t consider the situation all that likely.

As for other Martinez suitors, both the Cardinals and Giants will be looking for big bats to put in the heart of their order this winter. The Angels have been MLB’s worst team against left-handed pitching and have Josh Hamilton’s contract finally off the books, though they may not wish to celebrate by diving headfirst into another huge contract for an outfielder. The Dodgers have the money, of course, though this iteration of their front office has been more restrained in terms of spending. The Phillies have a virtually blank slate when it comes to long-term payroll, but they’d have to convince Martinez to join a club that doesn’t look ready to contend yet in 2018.

Watching the Orioles throughout the year it seems to be the same old need: pitching, pitching and more pitching. Who do you see as legitimate targets for the Orioles this offseason that they could go after to bolster one of the league’s worst starting rotations? — (a different) John H.

The Orioles are in a tough spot, as this winter will force them to ponder if they should trade franchise cornerstones like Zach Britton, Manny Machado and Adam Jones before they reach the open market next winter or keep the core together and make one more run with this group. It’s not entirely dissimilar to the position in which the Royals found themselves last winter, and my expectation is that the Orioles will go the same route the Royals did: make one more attempt and be prepared to sell in the summer if need be.

I don’t expect the O’s to be serious players at the very top of the starting pitching market — Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta (been there, done that), Masahiro Tanaka (assuming he opts out) — but the second tier of starters will feature some names for the O’s to consider. Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb are both more in the Orioles’ price range, and Baltimore has shown a willingness to part with draft picks in the past in order to sign free agents. (Both Lynn and Cobb are qualifying offer candidates.) Of course, adding such pitchers will likely mean taking on commitments past the point that those veteran core players will have reached the open market (assuming none is extended).

There will also be no shortage of reclamation projects for the O’s to pursue. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register has reported in the past that the O’s tried for Hector Santiago when he was with the Angels, and he’ll be available and affordable coming off an injury-wrecked season in Minnesota. Tyson Ross, Francisco Liriano and longtime rotation fixture Chris Tillman are all rebound candidates likely looking at one-year deals in free agency.

Ultimately, though, the Orioles’ best chance at dramatically improving the rotation is to get better results out of Kevin Gausman and more consistency out of Dylan Bundy in 2018.

Any chance the Cardinals re-sign Juan Nicasio for next year?  What kind of contract is he probably going to want? — Steve V.

We received multiple questions about the Cardinals retaining Nicasio this week as well. In short, I’d be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t make an effort to keep him. St. Louis knows it’ll be without Trevor Rosenthal in 2018 following Tommy John surgery. Seung-hwan Oh and Zach Duke are free agents. Brett Cecil has struggled and Kevin Siegrist is already gone. The bullpen is going to be a point of focus for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the Cardinals’ front office. They already demonstrated that they like Nicasio enough to trade a mid-range prospect for four weeks of his services.

Over the past three seasons, Nicasio has solid overall numbers that are dragged down by sub-par performances as a starter. If you look at his body of work solely as a reliever — when he can throw at max effort in short stints and doesn’t need to face hitters multiple times in an appearance — he’s pitched to a 3.44 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. FIP is even more bullish at 2.83, while SIERA pegs him at 3.33.

Nicasio just turned 31, and with a solid three-year platform in the bullpen under his belt, I’d imagine he’ll enter free agency looking for a three-year deal. Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp, Zach Duke and Mike Dunn have all signed three year deals in the $15-25MM range in recent offseasons. Nicasio’s reps could try to surpass those marks and get closer to  Darren O’Day’s four-year, $31MM pact, but that strikes me as a lofty goal. (Though I’d have said the same if asked about a four-year deal for Brett Cecil a year ago. Free agency can get weird.) A three-year deal comparable to those other contracts seems pretty readily attainable for Nicasio.

Not that the Phillies will get much in return, but what type of market could they have this winter for Cameron Rupp and Tommy Joseph? — Michael H.

Agreed that neither is going to bring them a huge return, though I think Rupp comes with quite a bit more value than Joseph. As a part-time/platoon catcher, teams could do far worse. He’s hitting .261/.387/.432 against lefties in 2017 and has a career .283/.365/.506 slash against them. He’s not a good framer, and he’s not as good at preventing steals as he once was (though some of that could be on an inexperienced Phillies rotation), but three arbitration years of a lefty-mashing catcher isn’t without value. The Rockies, Orioles, White Sox, A’s and Giants are among the teams that could conceivably poke around for backup catching help this winter.

As for Joseph, I just don’t see much in the way of interest. His power is way down (.248 ISO in 2016, .190 in 2017), his strikeouts are up and he’s not an above-average defender at first base — his only feasible position on the diamond. That’s not to say he couldn’t end up as a bench/platoon bat in an organization that happens to like him, but it’s hard to imagine a significant trade return.

This may seem elementary, but I’ve never gotten a decent answer, so I’m coming to you. What is the difference between “command” and “control”? Are they two words for the same thing? — Jude

As a general disclaimer, I’m not a scout nor will I pretend to be one. That said, the general difference is basically that “control” is the ability to consistently throw strikes — working ahead of hitters, limiting walks, etc. “Command,” meanwhile, is more about actually locating within (or around) the zone. Basically, being able to put the ball where the pitcher wants to with more consistency. You can be a great strike-thrower and have good control without necessarily having elite command. I tend to think of it similarly to the distinction between accuracy and precision.

Thanks, as always for your questions! Remember, you can also pose your inquiries to our writers during any of three weekly chats: myself on Tuesdays at 2:00pm CST; Jason Martinez on Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST; and Jeff Todd on Thursdays at 2:00pm CST.

Do you think the Mets should go hard after Mike Moustakas in the off season? What kind of an offer could land him? — Mike O.

At this point, as sad as it is to say, I don’t see how the Mets’ front office can head into 2018 under the expectation that they can get any notable contribution out of David Wright. (That’s all the more true after today’s news that Wright’s rehab assignment has been halted after he experienced shoulder pain.) Viewed through that lens, Moose makes sense as a somewhat reasonable on-paper target for the Mets, who don’t have an upper-level third base prospect that’s forcing his way into their plans.

The Mets do, however, possess quite a few infield options. Even if they don’t retain Asdrubal Cabrera beyond the current season, the Mets have both T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores as third base options in addition to Wright. I don’t know that spending on a top-of-the-market third baseman is going to be in the cards for a Mets club that perhaps still hopes to get something out of Wright next season and has at least two capable MLB alternatives already on the 40-man roster.

I’d currently peg Moustakas to land a five-year deal worth $90MM this offseason, and that’s a pretty heavy commitment given the current structure of the Mets’ roster. Moose’s on-base issues — he sports a career .305 OBP — may also give Mets GM Sandy Alderson pause.

While the Mets have a long-term need at the hot corner, I’d imagine they’ll be looking at other areas of need first in free agency. The bullpen, perhaps an outfielder (depending on Michael Conforto’s eventual diagnosis), some catching help and even some rotation stability to provide insurance in the wake of this year’s injuries all seem like more pressing needs.

What sort of contract is Carlos Gonzalez likely to get?  Something befitting his newfound mediocrity like 3/15?  Or a 1-year make-good deal for $5M or so?  How much do you think he lost by not agreeing to an extension last offseason? — Allan H.

I can’t see Gonzalez and agent Scott Boras taking multiple years at a low annual rate. A one-year deal is going to be their best bet heading into free agency. Recent examples of former star-caliber players that have had poor seasons and signed one-year pacts have shown that a one-year, $5MM deal may be beneath Gonzalez, though. Carlos Gomez signed a one-year, $11.5MM contract with the Rangers this offseason. A much older Matt Holliday got $13MM on a one-year deal (albeit coming off a better year at the plate).

I’d expect Gonzalez to sign for one year in the $10-14MM range in hopes of cashing in on a rebound season and looking for a much larger payday next winter. He’ll play next year at the age of 32 and would be 33 when seeking his larger contract if all pans out well, but that’s not too old for a corner outfielder to earn a solid contract.

I don’t know what the Rockies were offering him this spring, though I do recall chatting with Jeff Todd at the time and expressing surprise that the Rox were even interested. I’d have capped an offer to CarGo in the Josh Reddick range (four years, $52MM) at the time, and in retrospect, even that looks like it would’ve been a marked overpay.

Kevin Pillar is a great, Gold Glove type defender but has a mid 80’s OPS+. With Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith Jr., and Dalton Pompey ready for MLB time and Pompey and Alford easily center fielders, when does Pillar become expendable (ie our 4th OF) or get traded? — Johnny M.

For starters, I’m not sure where the notion that Pompey is ready for MLB time comes from. Pompey’s OPS in Triple-A last year barely scraped .700, and he’s been limited to 49 plate appearances this season due to injuries. He’s not pushing Pillar for a job anytime in the near future. Hernandez is likely to get a look as a potential everyday corner outfielder in September and next year, and I’d imagine that Alford will be presented with a similar opportunity.

Smith was left unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft twice and went undrafted both times. He’s put up solid but unremarkable numbers in Triple-A this season — .270/.344/.393 — and is less than two months from his 25th birthday. That doesn’t make him too “old” to be a future contributor by any means, but it’s important to note when gauging his overall ceiling. If any one of Hernandez, Pillar, Alford and Smith is going to be destined for fourth outfielder duties, I’d imagine that it’d be Smith.

Pillar’s bat isn’t great, but he’s one of the best defensive players on the planet. He’s been worth nine to 11 wins above replacement over the past three seasons (depending on your preferred version of the stat) based largely on the strength of that glove. Pillar shouldn’t go anywhere.

Is it too soon to abandon all hope on Yoan Moncada becoming the next Cano? How many perennial all stars struggle this mightily at the MLB level before becoming 3+ annual WAR players? Who is a comparable player with a similar history? — David C.

Moncada is barely 22 years old. It’s not uncommon at all for a player that young to come up and struggle immediately. Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 through his first 135 PAs as a rookie. Byron Buxton was labeled as a “bust” by many earlier this season when he opened the season 4-for-49 (and struggling in earlier MLB action), but he’s hitting .276/.336/.455 since April 25 and .333/.370/.657 since the All-Star break. There are dozens of other examples of players that came up and performed extremely poorly early on. If anything, early struggles should be the expectation as opposed to immediate stardom. (We are not worthy, Rhys Hoskins.)

For all of Moncada’s struggles, he’s still getting on base (.328 OBP, 15.5 percent walk rate) and showing some power (three homers, six doubles, a triple, .168 ISO). Strikeouts are probably always going to be an issue for him, but 140 plate appearances of struggles don’t prove he won’t eventually be a quality MLB regular. He won’t ever win a batting title with this level of swing-and-miss in his game, but there’s no reason to give up on him right now.

However, in terms of being “the next Robinson Cano,” it’s best to just get that notion out of your head right now. Moncada was likened to Cano because his swing looks similar and he’s going to play the same position, but Cano is an outstanding contact hitter and has only K’ed at a clip greater than 15 percent in one season. Moncada doesn’t need to be the “next Cano.” Have some patience, let him be himself, and enjoy having his talent.