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Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Which of these hot starts are for real?
Orioles 50.39% (4,587 votes)
Yankees 24.18% (2,201 votes)
Brewers 10.41% (948 votes)
Royals 9.70% (883 votes)
Mets 5.32% (484 votes)
Total Votes: 9,103
Which of these cold starts are for real?
Marlins 38.92% (3,900 votes)
Cardinals 21.01% (2,105 votes)
Twins 13.57% (1,360 votes)
Giants 10.24% (1,026 votes)
Astros 10.16% (1,018 votes)
Mariners 6.11% (612 votes)
Total Votes: 10,021

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

Injury Notes: Garrett, Davis, Lowe, Verlander

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The Marlins have been without left-hander Braxton Garrett all season. A shoulder impingement sent the 26-year-old to the injured list to begin the year. Garrett seemed to be nearing a return to the majors after throwing six innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Jacksonville last week, but he has run into a bit of a setback. Manager Skip Schumaker told reporters that Garrett felt a “dead arm” when throwing a bullpen session today (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com).

That isn’t believed to be related to the shoulder injury, yet it could push back his return all the same. Schumaker said Garrett will go for further testing. Getting the former #7 overall pick back in fairly short order would be a needed boost for a club that is off to the worst start in franchise history (3-14). Garrett was a key piece of the rotation a year ago, working 159 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA.

A few other injury notes:

  • The A’s placed J.D. Davis on the 10-day injured list shortly before tonight’s game against the Cardinals. The third baseman has a right adductor strain. Speedy outfielder Esteury Ruiz was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas in his place. Davis has gotten the nod at the hot corner for 14 of Oakland’s first 16 contests. He’s off to a slow start, hitting .196/.255/.373 with a lofty 29.1% strikeout rate. Manager Mark Kotsay turned to Abraham Toro at third base tonight.
  • Rays outfielder Josh Lowe could be nearing his season debut. Skipper Kevin Cash said that Lowe will head out on a rehab stint with Triple-A Durham on Thursday (link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Lowe was delayed early in camp by inflammation in his left hip. As he worked back from that issue, he strained his right oblique. That knocked him out of game action for a month. Lowe is coming off a breakout season, having hit .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers and 32 steals in 501 plate appearances. The Rays have used Richie Palacios and Amed Rosario in a right field platoon with Lowe on the shelf. They’ve each hit well in the early going, but they’re both capable of bouncing around the diamond once Lowe is ready to return to the lineup.
  • Justin Verlander has one final hurdle to clear before he’ll make his season debut. Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters that the three-time Cy Young winner will throw a bullpen session tomorrow (X link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). If that goes according to plan, Verlander will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list for this weekend’s series in Washington. The 41-year-old is coming off a four-inning rehab stint with Double-A Corpus Christi, in which he threw 78 pitches.

Marlins Outright Matt Andriese

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Marlins righty Matt Andriese cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He has the service time to decline the assignment in favor of free agency, although it isn’t clear if he’ll do so.

Andriese could well decide to stick with the organization after signing a minor league deal over the winter. The 34-year-old got back to the majors this spring for the first time since 2021. Miami called upon Andriese for a trio of relief outings, during which he tossed five innings of three-run ball. He fanned eight without issuing a walk but surrendered a pair of home runs. Miami designated him for assignment on Saturday when they recalled Calvin Faucher to get a fresh arm in the bullpen.

Miami called Andriese to the majors before he had a chance to pitch in Triple-A this season. He spent all of last year at the top minor league level, working 93 2/3 frames with the Dodgers’ affiliate. Andriese scuffled to a 6.05 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below the league average, although he showed strong control by walking fewer than 6% of opponents.

Marlins Select Jhonny Pereda

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The Marlins announced they’ve selected catcher Jhonny Pereda onto the major league roster. He fills in for Christian Bethancourt, who is headed to the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 14, as he battles a viral illness. Miami already has an opening on the 40-man roster after designating Matt Andriese for assignment over the weekend.

It’s an early birthday gift for Pereda, who turns 28 on Thursday. He reaches the big leagues for the first time after more than a decade in the minor leagues. The Venezuela native initially signed with the Cubs during the 2012-13 international amateur period. He got to Double-A in the Chicago system six years later before being traded to the Red Sox. Pereda didn’t reach the majors in Boston and became a minor league free agent after the 2021 season.

The right-handed hitter has bounced around via minor league free agency over the past few years. He spent 2022 in Triple-A with the Giants and joined the Reds last season. Pereda turned in an excellent .325/.405/.468 batting line in 68 games with Cincinnati’s Triple-A team but never got an MLB call. He inked another minor league pact — this time with the Fish — in January.

Miami assigned Pereda to Triple-A Jacksonville. He has played in eight games, collecting nine hits and five walks over his first 32 plate appearances. That brings his career slash at the top minor league level to a strong .294/.383/.404 in parts of four seasons. That was enough to make him the first one up in the event of an injury or illness to either of the catchers on Miami’s active roster.

Bethancourt and Nick Fortes had been the only backstops on the 40-man roster. With Bethancourt needing some time off, the Fish had to go to a non-roster player to back Fortes up. Pereda will fill that role for at least a week, likely getting a chance to make his MLB debut in the process. Neither Fortes nor Bethancourt has contributed much for the Marlins as they’ve limped to a 3-13 start. Miami has gotten by far the worst production in the league out of their catchers thus far: an .063/.100/.083 line over 51 trips to the plate.

Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported the Marlins were selecting Pereda and placing Bethancourt on the IL.

Marlins Option Max Meyer

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The Marlins announced Monday that they’ve optioned right-hander Max Meyer to Triple-A Jacksonville. He’ll be the corresponding move for the previously reported activation of fellow righty Edward Cabrera, who’s been on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement. MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola first reported that Meyer would be optioned to open a roster spot for Cabrera.

It’s a surprising move, given the Marlins’ struggles and Meyer’s excellence through his first three turns. The former University of Minnesota standout, No. 3 overall draft pick and top prospect has been outstanding in his first big league action since returning from 2022’s Tommy John surgery. In 17 innings, Meyer touts a 2.12 ERA; he’s surrendered just four runs on 11 hits and three walks with 14 punchouts and a 48.9% ground-ball rate.

Heading into the season, Meyer wasn’t expected to break camp with a rotation spot. Spring injuries to Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Eury Perez changed that calculus and put the 25-year-old Meyer back onto the rotation radar. Nothing he’s done this season takes away from his promising long-term outlook, but the Fish also plan to be mindful of his workload and limit his innings in his first year back from that UCL reconstruction procedure.

Be that as it may, the optics of the move aren’t great. The Marlins have only won three games this season, and Meyer has started two of them. He’s been both excellent and highly efficient, topping out at 91 pitches in his most recent start, which included six innings of one-run ball against a juggernaut Braves lineup. It’s easier to manage his innings at the minor league level, but given the overarching struggles of the Marlins’ big league roster, optioning one of their lone bright spots is tougher to justify.

It should be noted that it’s unlikely the decision to option Meyer was overly motivated by service time. He entered the year at 1.082 years of service, meaning he needed just 90 days on the active roster or big league injured list in order to reach two years of service and remain on track for free agency following the 2028 season. He’s picked up 17 days of service already, so unless the Marlins are planning to keep him in Jacksonville for as many as 95 more days this season, his free agent timeline will be unchanged. One would imagine he’ll rejoin the big league rotation sooner than later.

Miami certainly had other paths to consider when opening a spot for Cabrera’s return. Struggling top starter Jesus Luzardo was never going to be sent down, but reliever-turned-starter A.J. Puk has struggled mightily in his first three trips to the mound. Even if they understandably didn’t want to give up on that experiment yet, lefties Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers have both demonstrated worrying command issues.

A six-man rotation would also make some sense, creating an organic means of limiting not only Meyer’s workload but also those of Rogers and Puk — both of whom have innings concerns as well. Rogers pitched just 27 innings last season due to injury. Puk tossed just 59 1/3 innings last year while working as a reliever; his 66 2/3 innings in 2022 were his most since the 2017 season when he was still working as a full-time starter in the A’s minor league ranks.

Marlins To Place Jake Burger On Injured List, Activate Edward Cabrera

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The Marlins are placing third baseman Jake Burger on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique injury, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. She adds that Burger likened the discomfort he experienced to a 2023 oblique injury where he only missed the 10-day minimum. The team hasn’t provided a timetable for his return just yet. The Fish will recall utilityman Otto Lopez, whom they claimed off waivers from the Giants earlier this season, to take Burger’s spot on the roster.

Burger, 28, is tied for the Marlins’ team lead with three homers and is currently pacing the club with 15 runs knocked in. His overall .228/.281/.421 batting line is still well shy of league-average production (86 wRC+), but he’s been one of the better hitters in a dismal Marlins lineup — particularly with runners on base. Even a short-term absence figures to be a notable hit to a Marlins lineup that has mustered a collective .209/.273/.316 slash to begin the season.

The injury to Burger is exacerbated by the fact that utilityman Vidal Brujan is also banged up at the moment. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald tweets that Brujan is dealing with a right knee injury and is currently considered day-to-day. The Marlins are still in the process of evaluating that injury, and it’s possible he’ll wind up missing some time as well.

As such, the Marlins’ top options at third base right now are Emmanuel Rivera — acquired from the D-backs for cash following his DFA earlier this month — and Lopez. Rivera hit .261/.314/.358 in 283 plate appearances with Arizona last season but is out to a 3-for-17 start (all singles) in his time with the Marlins. Lopez is hitting .485/.528/.788 in a tiny sample of 36 Triple-A plate appearances this season and carries a career .288/.354/.401 slash in parts of four Triple-A campaigns overall. He’s spent far more time at both middle infield slots than at the hot corner, but he does have 205 career innings at third base.

It’s not all bad news for the Marlins. They’re expected to reinstate right-hander Edward Cabrera from the injured list to make his season debut tonight, reports Kevin Barral of Fish On First. De Nicola tweets that left-hander A.J. Puk had been slated to take the ball, but he’ll be pushed back a couple days due to an illness that’s been making the rounds in the Miami clubhouse and is currently impacting him. The Marlins will need to make a second roster move to open space for Cabrera’s return.

Cabrera, 26, has spent the first two-plus weeks of the season on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement. However, he’s made three Triple-A rehab starts now, allowing just one run in 12 2/3 innings. He walked seven batters over seven innings in his first two appearances, showing a bit of rust, but Cabrera punched out nine batters and walked just one over 5 2/3 frames in his most recent outing — yielding only an unearned run along the way. He’s pitched 171 1/3 innings over the past two seasons for the Marlins, working to a 3.73 ERA with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate but a dismal 13.7% walk rate that’s in need of further refinement.

Marlins Designate Matt Andriese For Assignment

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The Marlins announced that right-hander Matt Andriese has been designated for assignment.  Calvin Faucher has been called up from Triple-A Jacksonville to take his fellow right’s spot on the 26-man roster.

Signed to a minor league deal during the offseason, Andriese had that contract selected on April 4, resulting in his first taste of Major League action since the 2021 campaign.  Andriese had a 5.40 ERA over five innings and three appearances with Miami, eating some innings in a mop-up capacity while also allowing two homers in this brief sample size.

The home run ball was often an issue for Andriese during his seven-year run in the bigs from 2015-21, as he had a 14.5% homer rate over 509 innings with five different clubs.  Andriese’s 2022 campaign was spent in Japan with the Yomiuri Giants, and he returned to North America last season on a minor league deal with the Dodgers, posting a 6.05 ERA across 93 2/3 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City without ever getting a call-up.

Should Andriese clear waivers, Miami could opt to keep him around at Triple-A as bullpen depth, even if his lack of minor league options makes him an imperfect candidate to be shuffled back and forth between the majors and minors.  Andriese can also refuse an outright assignment to Triple-A in order to become a free agent, as he has previously been outrighted off a 40-man roster earlier in his career.  Given his rather long path back to the Show, it seems possible that Andriese might prefer the relative stability of remaining in the Marlins organization rather than again testing the open market.

Marlins Void 2025 Club Option On Manager Skip Schumaker

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April 9: Barry Jackson, Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald add some additional context to Schumaker’s contract status. Schumaker, according to the report, was frustrated by the departure of Ng, who’d hired him less than a year prior.

The Herald trio writes that owner Bruce Sherman agreed to remove the club option on the contract “as a show of good faith” after Schumaker voiced his concerns. In essence, voiding the club option gives Schumaker control over his own future if he and Bendix clash over the course of the season. Per the Herald report, there have been no issues between Bendix and Schumaker even in spite of the team’s terrible (1-10) start to the season, but the in-house expectation is that Schumaker will explore other options following the season.

April 7: Marlins manager Skip Schumaker is set to become a free agent following the 2024 season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Schumaker was hired by the club in October 2022 to serve under then-GM Kim Ng and agreed to a two-year deal with a club option for 2025, but Nightengale reports that Miami agreed to void the option this past winter.

Schumaker, 44, is a former big league outfielder and second baseman who played for the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Reds from 2005 to 2015 with a roughly league average .278/.337/.364 slash line in 1,149 career games. Just a few short years after retiring as a player in 2016, Schumaker began his coaching career as the first base coach in San Diego for the 2018 season. He was promoted to associate manager prior to the 2020 season but departed the club prior to the 2022 campaign to rejoin the Cardinals as Oli Marmol’s bench coach.

After a year working under Marmol in St. Louis, Schumaker quickly emerged as a finalist to replace outgoing manager Don Mattingly in Miami, and eventually reached a deal with the Marlins shortly thereafter. His debut season as manager scarcely could’ve gone better, as Schumaker led a surprisingly competitive Marlins club to an 84-win season in 2023, securing the club’s first full-season playoff appearance since 2003. Miami’s surprising performance was enough to earn Schumaker NL Manager of the Year honors over fellow finalists Craig Counsell and Brian Snitker.

Since then, however, there’s been plenty of upheaval in the Marlins organization. Ng parted ways with the organization after ownership refused to offer her an extension and indicated they planned to reduce her role by installing a president of baseball operations above her. Her departure last fall reportedly upset Schumaker. The club subsequently hired former Rays GM Peter Bendix to run the club’s baseball operations department.

The club went on to make minimal additions to its roster this winter, only adding shortstop Tim Anderson on a major league deal. Slugger Jorge Soler departed for San Francisco via free agency, and the Marlins at least entertained the idea of trading Jesus Luzardo and other young starters this winter. While it’s still early in the 2024 season, the returns on the club’s inaction this winter are nothing short of awful; the club has lost each of its first nine games this season while suffering injuries to key pieces such as Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett — both of whom opened the season on the injured list. Perez will miss the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Given the recent changes in club leadership and the team’s struggles, it’s possible Bendix hopes to choose his own manager following the 2024 season, resulting in the team being willing to forfeit their ability to unilaterally retain Schumaker. If Schumaker doesn’t remain in Miami beyond the current season, Nightengale suggests that he could join Red Sox manager Alex Cora as one of the most attractive managerial candidates available to clubs this winter.

Marlins Outright Kent Emanuel

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The Marlins have assigned left-hander Kent Emanuel outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to the transactions log on Emanuel’s MLB.com player profile. Emanuel was designated for assignment last week in order to make room for right-hander Matt Andriese on the club’s 40-man roster. Emanuel has the right to reject the assignment after being outrighted to the minors previously in his career by the Phillies back in November of 2022, though it’s unclear if he intends to exercise that right and test free agency or remain with the Marlins.

Emanuel, 32 in June, was a third-round pick by the Astros in the 2013 draft who made his big league debut with Houston back in 2021. Emanuel pitched decently across ten appearances in the majors, posting a strong 2.55 ERA in 17 2/3 innings of work despite a lackluster 19.1% strikeout rate and a whopping four home runs allowed leaving him with a much higher 5.49 FIP. That cup of coffee with the Astros would be the southpaw’s only big league experience until last week, when he pitched three innings for the Marlins against the Angels. The appearance didn’t go well as Emanuel was lit up for four runs on three walks and four hits, including a homer, while striking out just two of the 15 batters he faced.

Between his two stints in the majors, Emanuel spent the 2022 season with the Phillies and 2023 with the Pirates. He pitched primarily as a starter in the minors for both Pennsylvania clubs, impressing with a 2.37 ERA in ten starts at the Triple-A level with the Phillies but struggling badly across 84 1/3 innings of work in a swing role with Pittsburgh’s affiliate at the level. Over 20 appearances (13 starts) in Triple-A last year, Emanuel struggled to a 6.12 ERA while striking out just 20.1% of batters faced.

Despite those lackluster numbers last year, it’s easy to imagine a team in need of starting pitching depth having interest in Emanuel as an optionable, left-handed depth option on a non-roster deal. That could make free agency a tempting possibility for the southpaw, though it’s worth noting that few teams need pitching depth more than the Marlins themselves at this point in the season. With Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez set to miss the 2024 campaign while Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera both began on the injured list themselves, the club’s entire projected starting five outside of Jesus Luzardo is on the shelf as things stand, leaving the club to rely on the likes of Ryan Weathers and prospect Max Meyer.

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