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Marlins Place Avisail Garcia On 10-Day Injured List

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The Marlins announced a flurry of roster moves this morning, highlighted by the club placing veteran outfielder Avisail Garcia on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Outfielder Dane Myers was recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move. The Marlins also selected the contract of right-hander Emmanuel Ramirez, with lefty Kent Emanuel being designated for assignment in the corresponding move. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported that Myers and Ramirez would be joining the club, while MLB.com’s Cristina De Nicola first reported Garcia’s IL stint and Emanuel’s DFA. Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El ExtraBase first reported that Garcia was headed to the shelf with a hamstring injury.

Garcia, 33 in June, signed a four-year, $53MM contract with the Marlins prior to the 2022 season and has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness ever since. He’s been limited to just 153 games since arriving in Miami by hamstring and back injuries, and has posted a paltry .218/.260/.322 slash line with a 61 wRC+ and -1.3 fWAR when healthy enough to take the field for the club. His 51 trips to the plate for Miami this year have been a moderate improvement over his previous work in the organization, though his wRC+ of 75 is still well below league average. While it’s not yet clear how long Garcia will be on the shelf, his previous hamstring strains with the club have typically sidelined him for about a month at a time.

Filling in for Garcia in the club’s outfield mix will be Myers, a 28-year-0ld who made his big league debut with Miami last season. Initially drafted in the sixth round of the 2017 draft by the Tigers, Myers appeared in just 22 games for the Marlins last year, slashing a pedestrian .269/.286/.358 in 70 trips to the plate. He’s struggled similarly at the Triple-A level this season with a .237/.336/.323 slash line in 107 plate appearances with the club’s affiliate in Jacksonville. Nonetheless, Myers figures to be part of the club’s rotating outfield mix alongside Jesus Sanchez and Nick Gordon, serving as a right-handed complement to the pair of lefties.

On the pitching side of things, the Marlins are set to welcome Ramirez onto the roster ahead of what will be his big league debut once he makes it into a game. The 29-year-old has spent more than a decade in the minors while pitching in the Padres, Braves, and Yankees systems but will now get his first major league opportunity with Miami after impressive with seven strong outings at the Triple-A level for the club this season. During that time, Ramirez has pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work while striking out a whopping 32% of batters faced. If the right-hander can keep that level of production up in the majors, he’ll surely be a major asset to a Marlins bullpen that has lackluster 4.84 ERA that’s good for the eighth-worst figure in the majors.

As for Emanuel, this is the second time he’s been designated for assignment by Miami this season. He’ll return to DFA limbo just one day after being selected back onto the roster with a 10.50 ERA in six innings of work for the club across his two stints in the majors. The Marlins will once again have seven days to either trade the lefty or attempt to pass him through waivers. If they succeed in doing the latter, Rivera will have the choice between remaining with the club as non-roster depth until and unless they decide to select him to the roster a third time or simply electing free agency in hopes of finding a better deal elsewhere.

Marlins Select Kent Emanuel, Designate Kyle Tyler

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The Marlins announced a pair of roster moves, as right-hander Kyle Tyler has been designated for assignment.  This creates roster space for Kent Emanuel, as the southpaw’s contract was selected from Triple-A.

Emanuel was DFA’ed himself in early April and then outrighted off Miami’s 40-man roster.  Because he had previously been outrighted in his career, Emanuel had the right to reject the Marlins’ outright assignment and opt into free agency, though he instead chose to remain in the organization.  That decision has now led to Emanuel getting another call to the majors, even if it might be a short-term move to get a fresh arm into the Marlins’ bullpen.

In his one previous appearance this season, Emanuel allowed four runs over three relief innings in Miami’s 10-2 loss to the Angels on April 3.  This marked Emanuel’s first Major League action since he debuted with 10 games with the Astros in 2021, and he spent 2022-23 pitching in the Phillies’ and Pirates’ farm systems before signing a minor league deal with the Marlins back in February.

Working as both a starter and a reliever throughout his pro career, Emanuel’s swingman experience adds some depth to an injury-plagued Marlins pitching staff.  Jesus Luzardo was just placed on the 15-day injured list yesterday, leaving Miami scrambling for an extra arm on short notice in order to cover Luzardo’s scheduled start.  Andrew Maldonado got the start in his MLB debut and pitched three scoreless innings, and he was one of six pitchers who combined for the bullpen game in Friday’s 3-1 loss to the Nationals.

Tyler covered two of those innings on Friday, allowing one earned run over 21 pitches.  That outing marked Tyler’s first appearance since his own contract was selected from Triple-A last week, and his first MLB game since 2022 when Tyler pitched for the Padres.  All told, Tyler has a 2.45 ERA over 18 1/3 career innings in the Show, though with seven walks and only nine strikeouts allowed in that small sample size.

Because Tyler has also been outrighted before, he’d have the ability to select free agency if he clears DFA waivers and the Marlins tried to outright him off the 40-man roster.  Given the revolving-door nature of Miami’s bullpen, it could be that both Tyler, Emanuel, and other Marlins pitchers with outrights on their resume could be more prone to remaining with the team due to the greater opportunity available for more big league playing time.  The struggling Marlins look like they could be rotating arms through the pitching staff all year long, so a pitcher might prefer this semi-regular workload on the minor league shuttle rather than start from scratch with another organization.  Tyler in particular might prefer sticking with one team given his history of rapid-fire waiver claims.

Jesus Luzardo Place On Injured List, Will Undergo Testing Due To Elbow Tightness

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2:25pm: The Marlins have now formally placed Luzardo on the 15-day injured list with left elbow tightness and recalled Maldonado from Jacksonville. Luzardo tells Christina De Nicola of MLB.com that he feels this IL stint is precautionary and that he’ll only miss one or two starts.

9:35am: Right-hander Anthony Maldonado is being recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville to start tonight’s game, the team has now announced. It’ll be his major league debut. Maldonado is a reliever who’s only pitched 11 2/3 innings over eight appearances this season, so while he could probably give the club multiple innings, it seems the Fish will go with a bullpen game today.

9:22am: The Marlins announced Friday that lefty Jesus Luzardo has been scratched from his scheduled start today and will instead undergo testing on his left elbow. The 26-year-old southpaw experienced discomfort in his most recent bullpen session.

It’s an ominous development for Miami’s Opening Day starter, who’s gotten out to a dreadful start to his season. Through his first five trips to the mound, Luzardo carries a 6.58 ERA in 26 innings. His velocity has held up from last year, but his strikeout rate is down four percentage points (from 28.1% to 24.1%) and his walk rate is up by roughly the same amount (from 7.4% to 11.6%). It’s a far cry from Luzardo’s 2022-23 form, wherein he pitched to a combined 3.48 ERA in 279 frames.

The news is all the more worrisome when considering Luzardo’s injury history. Although he made 32 starts and tossed a career-high 178 2/3 innings last year, that’s hardly been the norm for the talented southpaw. Luzardo had Tommy John surgery during his senior year of high school. The Nationals selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft anyhow and ultimately traded him to the Athletics as part of the package to acquire relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Luzardo continued to climb the minor league ranks and draw considerable prospect fanfare, but he also missed nearly two months of the 2019 season in the minors with a shoulder strain. Oakland flipped him to the Marlins in a 2021 trade for Starling Marte. Luzardo wound up being limited to 18 starts in 2022 because of a forearm strain.

Miami’s rotation has already been devastated by injury. Ace Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, underwent Tommy John surgery in October and won’t pitch this season. Top prospect Eury Perez, who debuted last season with 91 1/3 innings of 3.15 ERA ball at just 20 years of age, had Tommy John surgery earlier this month. Left-hander Braxton Garrett, who broke out with a 3.63 ERA in 247 2/3 innings from 2022-23, has yet to pitch this season due to a shoulder impingement.

Luzardo now joins that growing list of injured arms, leaving a Miami rotation that projected to be the team’s strength in tatters. Right-hander Edward Cabrera and lefties Ryan Weathers and Trevor Rogers are the team’s three healthy big league starters at present.

Right-hander Sixto Sanchez just made his first start since 2020 but lasted only 2 2/3 innings after opening the season in a bullpen role. He once ranked as an elite pitching prospect but has seen his career derailed by a series of shoulder injuries. He pitched one minor league inning from 2021-23 and is surely on an innings cap this year as a result. Top prospect Max Meyer, who was recently optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville despite a dominant start to the season, will also have his workload managed in 2024 — his first season back from his own Tommy John procedure. It stands to reason that he’ll be back in the Miami rotation at some point — likely sooner than later now — but it’s unclear how many innings can be expected of the former No. 3 overall draft pick.

The Marlins’ season already looked to be effectively over before the first month had drawn to a close. The team currently sits with a 6-20 record and a -47 run differential. The offense ranks 27th in the majors in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging percentage. They’ve gotten just five hits from their catchers all season. Any small chance of the Fish climbing out of this hole would’ve required things to break just right for them — including and arguably led by a return to form for their top starter. The obvious hope is that Luzardo will receive a clean bill of health and miss minimal time, but a lengthy absence would only serve as a further nail in the coffin on a catastrophic 2024 season in South Florida.

MLBTR Podcast Mailbag: Cardinals’ Troubles, Jazz Chisholm, Bad Umpiring And More

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…

  • Which of the division leaders have the most or least staying power? (3:10)
  • What does it look like if the Cardinals are selling at the deadline? (11:20)
  • Do the Cardinals have a problem with coaching or player development? (18:50)
  • When the Braves traded Marco Gonzales and Max Stassi, why did they trade for a player to be named later or cash when they were paying most of the salaries for both players? (22:35)
  • Will the Marlins trade Jazz Chisholm Jr. if they are out of contention in July? (24:45)
  • You’re designing a pitcher in a lab to succeed in today’s game and mitigate the likelihood of an injury. What is their profile and what pitches do they throw? (28:35)
  • Why isn’t there more umpire accountability? (33:30)
  • Why are the Pirates committed to hitting coach Andy Haines? (35:45)
  • Compare the cost of a Falcon 9 launch to the Javier Báez contract. How much could the Tigers save? (38:55)
  • Should the Tigers send Parker Meadows down and should the Giants release Mike Yastrzemski? (40:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Marlins To Move A.J. Puk Back To Bullpen

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Marlins left-hander A.J. Puk was in the Marlins’ rotation to start this year before landing on the injured list but he will be moved back to the bullpen when he’s healthy. Manager Skip Schumaker passed the news along to Christina De Nicola of MLB.com today.

It’s not necessarily a shock that the Marlins are making this decision since the plan to move Puk to the rotation got off to a horrible start. His first four outings resulted in 14 earned runs allowed over 13 2/3 innings. He struck out 12 opponents but gave out walks to 17 of them before landing on the IL over the weekend due to fatigue in his throwing shoulder.

There was some logic to the plan, as Puk was once a highly-touted prospect in the Athletics’ system who was seen as a future major league starter. However, he required shoulder surgery in 2020 and then also had some other health issues, including a strained left biceps and nerve irritation in his left elbow.

The A’s decided to move Puk to a relief role after those injuries and the initial results were good. In 2022, Puk tossed 66 1/3 innings out of their bullpen with a 3.12 earned run average, striking out 27% of batters faced. They flipped him to the Marlins for JJ Bleday prior to 2023, and Puk continued to have success as a reliever in Miami. His ERA ticked up slightly to 3.97 but his strikeout rate also jumped to 32.2%.

After two years of success as a reliever, it’s understandable why the Marlins thought the time was right for him to see if he could move back to the rotation. From a team standpoint, they had seen their rotation depth thinned out by the trades of Pablo López and Jake Eder, as well as the Tommy John surgery of Sandy Alcántara. Since moving Puk to the rotation, that depth was further thinned by Eury Pérez also requiring Tommy John, while Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett battled less-significant injuries.

But the poor results and Puk’s shoulder injury seem to have convinced the Marlins to give up on the experiment, at least for now. He’ll move back to the bullpen when he returns from the IL and will hopefully re-establish himself in that role.

The Marlins can control Puk for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Given their poor start this season, they are trending towards being sellers at the deadline this summer. Puk could perhaps be made available but the extra years of control also mean that they could decide to hang onto him.

The Miami rotation currently consists of Cabrera, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers. Tonight’s starter is Sixto Sánchez but he’s unlikely to give the club much length since he’s mostly been pitching single-inning appearances this year and hardly pitched at all in the three previous years due to ongoing shoulder problems.

Schumaker seems open-minded about Sánchez taking the ball again, telling De Nicola it depends on how things go tonight, but Garrett is also nearing a return. Per De Nicola, the lefty is planned for four innings and/or 60 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start on Friday.

The Marlins’ Historically Feeble Catching Corps

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The Marlins have been searching for a long-term answer at catcher since trading J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies back in February of 2019. The organizational hope at the time was that Jorge Alfaro, acquired alongside righty Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart in that very trade, could step up and fill the role. That never really came to fruition, and the Fish have cycled through him, Jacob Stallings and a long list of veteran role players in an effort to hold things over at the position.

It’s never gone particularly well, but it’s also never been as bad as it is right now. The Marlins opened the season with glove-first Nick Fortes and trade acquisition Christian Bethancourt lined up to shoulder the workload behind the plate. The results are quite literally some of the worst in history. Through the Marlins’ first 25 games — more than 15% of their season — they’ve gotten exactly five hits from their catchers. All have come from Fortes, who has three singles and a pair of doubles on the year. He’s 5-for-46 at the plate. Bethancourt is hitless in 23 plate appearances. Jhonny Pereda, recently selected from Triple-A Jacksonville to replace Bethancourt when he  hit the IL due to a viral illness, is 0-for-5 to begin his big league career. (Miami reinstated Bethancourt from the injured list today and optioned Pereda back to Jacksonville.)

Overall, Marlins catchers own a staggering .068/.117/.096 slash line on the season. That obviously places them at the bottom of the league; by measure of wRC+, Miami catchers have been 138% worse than league-average (-38). Since Realmuto left the Marlins, their catchers have combined for a .223/.285/.345 batting line in 2734 plate appearances.

The Fish likely knew the catcher’s spot would be a weak point in the lineup. Fortes hit just .204/.263/.299 in 323 plate appearances last season but is a plus defender behind the dish who was credited as being five runs better than average by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast in just 774 innings in 2023.

Bethancourt has more power (11 homers, .156 ISO last season) but hit just .225/.254/.381 thanks to a lofty 27.4% strikeout rate and paltry 3.9% walk rate. He’s a rocket-armed defender who’s thrown out one-third of attempted base thieves in his career and ranked in the 95th percentile of MLB catchers for his pop time behind the plate last season, however. True to form, he’s thrown out two of the three runners who’ve run against him this season.

Bethancourt is also likely a favorite of Miami president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, who was the Rays’ GM when Tampa Bay acquired Bethancourt from the A’s last year and who quickly acquired Bethancourt in a trade after the Guardians claimed him off waivers from the Rays.

At the time of that trade, it appeared likely to be one of multiple additions for the Fish. Bendix said shortly after being hired that it’d be “ideal” to acquire multiple catchers over the course of the offseason, recognizing that it was an area of organizational weakness. In the most literal sense possible, the Marlins accomplished that goal; Bethancourt was acquired via trade, and the aforementioned Pereda was signed as a minor league free agent. It’s hard to imagine that a cash swap and a minor league signing were the goal at the time of those comments from Bendix, however.

Marlins ownership clearly didn’t give the front office much to work with in terms of financial firepower this offseason. The team’s only major league free agent signing was a one-year, $5MM deal for Tim Anderson. The Fish made little to no effort to re-sign Jorge Soler after he opted out of the final year of his contract — and that’s according to Soler himself. Even on the eve of Opening Day, the Marlins were still trimming payroll, shipping utilityman Jon Berti to the Yankees in exchange for a pair of minor league outfielders.

The Marlins clearly believe they’ll get more offense out of Fortes and Bethancourt — a low bar to clear thus far in the season — as they’ve made no effort to augment the position thus far. Veteran Eric Haase and his modest $1MM salary passed through waivers unclaimed in late March. When the Giants designated Joey Bart for assignment, the Pirates acquired him in exchange for a relief prospect they drafted in the eighth round last year. Veterans Francisco Mejia (Brewers) and Curt Casali (Cubs) both signed minor league deals with other clubs after the season began.

Outside of Bart (a long shot), none of those names was likely to emerge as a long-term option. They’re generally short-term stopgaps at best and future DFA candidates themselves at worst. But given the total dearth of production the Marlins have received from the catching position this year, even a short-term stopgap seems like a wise target — particularly since the farm isn’t likely to produce any immediate help.

None of Miami’s top-tier prospects are catchers. Will Banfield is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking 16th in their system at Baseball America and 23rd at MLB.com. Banfield, however, carries a similar profile to that of Fortes — a plus defender with questionable offensive skills. He’s off to a woeful .161/.203/.304 start in Triple-A and has struck out in an eye-popping 49.2% of his 59 plate appearances. Joe Mack, whom the Marlins selected 31st overall in 2021, is another glove-first option who’s further down the ladder. He hit just .218/.295/.287 in High-A last year, though he did rip through pitching at that same level this year (.347/.467/.561) and earn a promotion to Double-A in the process.

Fortes, Bethancourt and Pereda won’t keep floundering at this severe a level, but none of that trio is likely to emerge as a solid offensive contributor either. There was inherent risk in entering the season with a pair of backstops who sport career wRC+ marks of 69 (Bethancourt) and 70 (Fortes). Things have gone worse than anyone could’ve reasonably expected, but it was always a possibility that the Fish would be rostering one of the least-productive catching tandems in the sport — if not the worst. The lack of any meaningful effort to address the deficiency is perplexing but feels like something that can and will be addressed via the trade market — whether at this year’s deadline or in the offseason.

Miami isn’t going to go out and trade prospects for an established veteran — not when their season is all but lost before the end of April — but if and when the Marlins begin selling off veterans of their own, targeting some upper-level catching help wouldn’t be a surprising outcome.

Josh Simpson To Undergo Surgery For Ulnar Nerve Neuritis

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Marlins left-hander Josh Simpson will undergo surgery for ulnar nerve neuritis, per Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. He is expected to miss about three months.

Simpson, 26, began this year on the 15-day injured list with left elbow ulnar neuritis. He was transferred to the 60-day IL this past weekend when the club selected the contract of right-hander Kyle Tyler. That transfer made Simpson ineligible to return from the injured list until late May but he’ll now be out beyond that point anyway, with the news of this surgery.

A 32nd-round pick of the Fish in the 2019 draft, the lefty was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2022 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had just finished a strong season, tossing 68 innings between Double-A and Triple with a 3.97 earned run average. He walked 12.4% of batters faced but also struck out opponents at a hefty 40.7% rate.

Last year, he kept getting the punchies but the control got a bit worse. In 38 2/3 minor league innings, he had a 4.42 ERA, 37.5% strikeout rate and 15.3% walk rate. He was recalled to the big league club a couple of times but was not put into a game and is therefore still looking to make his major league debut.

That debut will have to wait at least a few more months as he rehabs from this surgery. Since he’s on the big league IL, he’ll collect major league pay and service time while he’s working his way back. The Marlins have Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi as the two healthy lefty relievers on their roster. Some have speculated that A.J. Puk could be moved back to the bullpen since his rotation work has not been good so far this year, but he’s on the IL now anyway due to fatigue in his throwing shoulder.

Marlins Place A.J. Puk On 15-Day Injured List

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The Marlins have announced a series of roster moves in advance of today’s double-header with the Cubs, including the news that left-hander A.J. Puk has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to fatigue in his throwing shoulder.  As was reported yesterday, Roddery Munoz was indeed called up from Triple-A, and he’ll officially act as the 27th man for the double-header.  Right-hander Kyle Tyler will also join the active roster after his contract was selected from Triple-A, and the Marlins moved southpaw Josh Simpson to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man roster opening for Tyler.

Puk just pitched yesterday, and was tagged for seven earned runs over three innings of work in an 8-3 Miami loss to Chicago.  It was the roughest yet of four lackluster starts for Puk, who now has a 9.22 ERA over 13 2/3 innings of work, with an alarming 17 walks over that brief amount of time on the mound.  Manager Skip Schumaker told reporters (including Fish On First’s Isaac Azout) yesterday that the club hasn’t yet considered moving Puk back to the bullpen, though today’s injury news could change the equation considerably.

First and foremost, Puk’s lengthy injury history adds an extra layer of concern to any new health issues, even something as relatively minor as shoulder fatigue.  Puk missed all of the 2018 season and a chunk of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and then missed the entire 2020 season due to a lingering shoulder problem that eventually required surgery.  Since it wasn’t clear if Puk’s arm would hold up under a starter’s workload, the Athletics used him as a reliever, and the result was a breakout year in 2022.  Oakland traded Puk to the Marlins in the 2022-23 offseason for JJ Bleday, and Puk continued the success last season with more strong work out of Miami’s relief corps.

With Puk now established as a big leaguer, the Marlins decided to see what he could still offer as a starter, and stretched him out this spring with an eye towards putting him into the rotation.  Clearly the experiment hasn’t worked out to date, and once Puk is back from the IL, he could find himself in the relief corps again if Miami has stabilized the rest of its rotation.  Between Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez undergoing Tommy John surgery and season-opening IL stints for Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, the Fish didn’t really have much choice but to keep rolling Puk out there, though Cabrera has now since returned.

Max Meyer pitched well over three starts but was then optioned to Triple-A despite those strong results, as the Marlins are looking to limit his innings in the wake of a Tommy John surgery.  Munoz is making his MLB debut today with a start against the Cubs, and Puk’s injury could mean that Munoz gets a longer look against big league competition.  Tyler could also technically be a starting candidate, though the Marlins used him as a reliever in both of his Triple-A appearances this season.

Tyler has started 60 of his 108 career games in the minors, including starts in 26 of his 27 appearances with the Mariners’ Double-A affiliate in 2023.  With only a 5.60 ERA to show for those 135 innings, it represented a setback for Tyler, who banked 16 1/3 innings of MLB experience with the Angels and Padres in 2021-22.  He had previously pitched well in Double-A ball before running into problems in Triple-A, with a 5.68 ERA over 44 1/3 frames at the top minor league level.  The Marlins signed Tyler to a minor league deal during the offseason, and he’ll give the team some extra depth in the pen at least through today’s twin bill.

Simpson started the year on the 15-day IL due to elbow ulnar neuritis, and his move to the 60-day IL means that he won’t be an option for the big league roster until late May.  He has banked only one minor league appearance this season back on April 6, and between the lack of subsequent action and now this move to the 60-day IL, it remains to be seen when Simpson might be back in action.  The 26-year-old has yet to make his Major League debut, but has been a member of Miami’s organization since he was drafted in the 32nd round in 2019.

Marlins To Call Up Roddery Muñoz For MLB Debut

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The Marlins are going to bring up right-hander Roddery Muñoz as the 27th man for tomorrow’s double-header, per Isaac Azout of Fish on First. The righty will be making his major league debut, starting one of the two games of the twin bill.

It’s a belated birthday present for Muñoz, who just turned 24 on Sunday. The righty hasn’t been a Marlin for very long, as he actually came up as prospect in Atlanta’s system, but since July of last year, he bounced to the Nationals, Pirates and Marlins via waiver claims or cash deals.

The righty had a bit of a breakout in 2022. He made 19 starts at the High-A level that year, with a 4.03 earned run average in his 89 1/3 innings. He struck out 26.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 9.5% clip and getting grounders on 45.6% of balls in play. He was promoted to Double-A for three starts at the end of the year and allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings, but the peripheral stats were pretty similar to his High-A work.

Going into 2023, Atlanta put him on their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Baseball America also ranked him the #22 prospect in that club’s system. But his results backed up a bit last year, which led to his aforementioned journey around the league’s DFA carousel. He eventually tossed 78 innings at his various stops throughout the year, with a 5.42 ERA in that time. His 23% strikeout rate was solid but his 15.1% walk rate was quite high.

The Marlins nonetheless took a shot on him and have since seen their starting pitching depth get thinned out. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year and was already known to be unavailable in 2024, but Eury Pérez has since followed him down that path. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also started the season on the injured list due to injuries, though Cabrera has now returned.

The rotation currently consists of Cabrera, A.J. Puk, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers, but yesterday’s game was rained out, leading to tomorrow’s doubleheader. Since they need a sixth starter to get through this stretch, with no off-day until Thursday, the circumstances will allow Muñoz to make his debut. He has tossed 10 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level so far this year but has shown significant control problems, issuing 12 walks to just seven strikeouts.

That perhaps suggests this was mostly an emergency decision. The club also has Max Meyer and Darren McCaughan on the 40-man roster, but Meyer was just optioned to monitor his workload after he missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. McCaughan just pitched on Wednesday and would be pitching on short rest if recalled this weekend. Muñoz may be in for just one outing before being optioned back to the minors, but it’s undoubtedly an exciting day for him regardless.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Which of these hot starts are for real?
Orioles 50.39% (4,587 votes)
Yankees 24.18% (2,201 votes)
Brewers 10.41% (948 votes)
Royals 9.70% (883 votes)
Mets 5.32% (484 votes)
Total Votes: 9,103
Which of these cold starts are for real?
Marlins 38.92% (3,900 votes)
Cardinals 21.01% (2,105 votes)
Twins 13.57% (1,360 votes)
Giants 10.24% (1,026 votes)
Astros 10.16% (1,018 votes)
Mariners 6.11% (612 votes)
Total Votes: 10,021
Show all

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