Make Or Break Year

Make Or Break Year: Tyler O’Neill

By Mark Polishuk | February 10, 2024 at 9:43am CDT

At this time two years ago, Tyler O’Neill was viewed as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield. O’Neill had shown flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, but it seemingly all came together for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning defense in left field. This all-around performance translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by only 13 players in the sport, and O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP voting.

Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks about a multi-year contract extension during the 2021-22 offseason, though it wasn’t known if the two sides floated a deal to cover just O’Neill’s arbitration years or beyond. (The Cards subsequently won an arb hearing against O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM salary for the outfielder in 2022, rather than his desired $4.15MM figure.) Given how the next two seasons played out for O’Neill, St. Louis might have caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, though it’s safe to say that neither side was particularly satisfied with the outfielder’s results during the 2022-23 seasons.

O’Neill has hit only .229/.310/.397 with 23 home runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a slightly below-average 98 wRC+. The key statistic there might be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill played in just 168 of a possible 324 games due to several injuries. A hip impingement and a hamstring strain limited him to 96 games in 2022, and then a lower back sprain and a foot sprain led to more injured list time in 2023 and only 72 appearances.

Injuries also hampered O’Neill prior to 2021, thus making him a tricky player to properly evaluate. Does that career year serve as an example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever stay healthy, or was even that giant 2021 campaign perhaps something of an outlier even beyond O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL? A hefty .366 BABIP puts something of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even allowing for the fact that his speed and baserunning ability helped him naturally turn a few extra grounders into base hits. His walk rate was also well below the league average in 2021, though curiously, O’Neill posted much more solid walk numbers in 2022-23, as well as the 2020 season.

The number that has stayed consistent, unfortunately for O’Neill, is his strikeout rate. Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout rate ranks seventh among all batters with at least 1600 PA. While his K% has gotten better in each of the last two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s approach has curbed his effectiveness at the plate and made him something of a one-dimensional hitter.

It probably also hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent much of the 2023 season hearing his name in trade rumors. Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down year in 2022, O’Neill suddenly seemed to become expendable, even if St. Louis was naturally still putting a significant asking price on his services. It isn’t known what offers the Cards might’ve received for O’Neill at the time or what trades might have been floated or seriously discussed, yet in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis might’ve been better served in moving O’Neill while his trade value was a little higher.

The outfielder’s rough 2023 season only diminished that value, and the year got off to an immediate awkward start when O’Neill was benched for a game for what manager Oliver Marmol felt was a lack of baserunning effort the previous night. That situation seemed like a harbinger for the end of O’Neill’s time with the organization, yet he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill at the trade deadline even through the struggling club made some other sell-off moves.

A trade didn’t materialize until December, when the Red Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Baseball America ranks Robertson as the 25th-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, yet the trade return has to be considered a bit of a disappointment for the Cards considering what the return might have been for O’Neill even last offseason. From Boston’s perspective, of course, the deal could be seen as an intriguing buy-low situation. The Royals and (O’Neill’s former team) Mariners were two of the other teams publicly linked to O’Neill’s trade market, and it’s safe to assume that several other teams checked in with the St. Louis front office.

Health is obviously the biggest x-factor for O’Neill going forward, yet Fenway Park is a pretty nice landing spot for a player looking to regain his hitting stroke. It’s easy to imagine O’Neill suddenly launching a few homers over the Green Monster, though that same wall will also provide an interesting challenge to O’Neill in his regular role as the new Sox left fielder. After winning Gold Gloves in both 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers were much closer to average over the last two seasons, so he’ll also be looking for a rebound in the field as well as at the plate.

O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season. He’ll have all the opportunity in the world with a Red Sox team that seems to be something in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and trying to legitimately contend, and it can be argued that buying low on a recent MVP candidate can be slotted into either direction. Another year of struggles could limit O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year deals going forward, yet if he can avoid the IL and show anything close to his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a nice multi-year contract could be in offing next winter.

Make Or Break Year: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

By Mark Polishuk | January 21, 2023 at 9:17pm CDT

The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays combined on one of the winter’s biggest trades back in December, though for all of the attention the deal received, much more focus was (understandably) placed on the involvement of Daulton Varsho and Gabriel Moreno than on the fact that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was now headed to Arizona. Varsho is a very promising young player and already an ace defender, while Moreno is arguably baseball’s best prospect — with all these future potential in mind, it isn’t necessarily surprising that Gurriel was something of an afterthought.

It wasn’t that long ago that Gurriel was himself a sought-after young talent, when he defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed a seven-year, $22MM deal with Toronto later that year. He made his MLB debut in April 2018 at age 24 and has since carved out a solid career for himself over five seasons in the Show, yet in some ways, Gurriel has been hampered by those initial high expectations. Though Gurriel has been much better than many prospects (both international and from the domestic draft) over the years who carried a lot more hype, having “only” a solid career to date has perhaps been a little underwhelming considering how good Gurriel has looked when he has been in top form.

Gurriel’s .285/.329/.468 slash line and 68 homers over 1864 career MLB plate appearances translates to a 115 wRC+, well above the league average. He has consistently delivered good (and in 2020, elite) hard-hit ball rates, and his barrel rates were similarly pretty consistent before plummeting downwards in 2022. While Gurriel doesn’t walk much, his strikeout and whiff rates have steadily improved over the last four seasons, with Gurriel topping out in the 78th percentile of all hitters in K% and in the 71st percentile in whiff rate last year.

With all this in mind, however, Gurriel has amassed only 6.2 fWAR over his 468 big league games. For comparison’s sake, Varsho has 7.1 fWAR over 283 games and 1022 PA, with 4.6 fWAR coming in the 2022 season alone. Defense accounts for much of Varsho’s advantage, as Gurriel has been roughly an average left fielder since the start of the 2019 season, when factoring in all of the public defensive metrics. Defensive Runs Saved (+4) likes Gurriel’s outfield work, while UZR/150 (-2.7) and especially Outs Above Average (-16) have been a lot less impressed. It is worth noting, however, that Gurriel was a finalist for the AL left field Gold Glove in both 2020 and 2021, somewhat in defiance of the mixed reviews from the metrics.

Glovework has been an element of Gurriel’s big league career from the start, as the Blue Jays initially hoped he could be a shortstop prospect or at least a second baseman, but he struggled badly as an infielder. Fortunately for both Gurriel and the Jays, a position change to left field allowed him to settle in both as a defender and at the plate, even if it limited Gurriel’s overall value in the long term. As he heads into his age-29 season, Gurriel has only moderate defensive utility as a passable left fielder and as a part-time first baseman, though his solid arm strength suggests that he might be an option in right field (a position he has never played in the majors).

Looking at Gurriel’s batting statistics, his good overall numbers smooth over a lot of streakiness at the plate. The outfielder is prone to extreme hot and cold stretches, with injuries sometimes factoring into that variance. Just in 2022, Gurriel had a .601 OPS over his first 154 plate appearances, then posted a .901 OPS in his next 241 PA, then slumped to a .554 OPS in his final 98 PA prior to a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his season in early September.

While that roller-coaster of a season evened out to 114 wRC+ in 493 PA, Gurriel’s sudden lack of power was a concern, as his .108 Isolated Power total was far below the .209 ISO he had previously posted during his career. Again, injuries might have been a reason, as Gurriel dealt with a wrist problem during the season that eventually required surgery in October, and he is expected to be ready for his first Spring Training with the D’Backs.

It all adds up to a career that has been both inconsistent, yet somewhat predictably inconsistent at the same time. The Diamondbacks have a reasonable expectation of what a healthy Gurriel can deliver as a floor, with hopes that his ceiling might reach higher in a new environment. Gurriel could also benefit to some extent if the D’Backs use their left-handed hitting outfielders (i.e. Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher) to provide some shield against right-handed pitching, though Gurriel’s career splits are pretty even.

2023 is the final season of Gurriel’s initial seven-year contract, and a clause in the deal makes him automatically eligible for free agency next winter even though Gurriel will be short of six years of MLB service time. The outfielder will be 30 on Opening Day 2024, so he can still offer some prime years to an interesting team on the open market, but much will be determined by how Gurriel performs this season in Arizona.

Some Toronto fans were surprised that the Blue Jays had to include both Moreno and Gurriel to pry Varsho away from the D’Backs, yet that could reflect what relatively modest trade value Gurriel had around the league, even for a player owed only $5.4MM in 2023. Even from the Diamondbacks’ perspective, while Gurriel’s inclusion was a factor in finally getting the trade over the finish line, the still-existing outfield surplus within the organization means that Arizona probably sees Gurriel as a one-year rental. If the D’Backs are again out of contention by the trade deadline, Gurriel might be a prime candidate to be shipped elsewhere.

If Gurriel matches only his 2021-22 numbers, a two-year free agent deal might be his max, and a lot of teams might not be willing to go beyond one guaranteed year. As we’ve seen this offseason, teams are willing to pay big for superstars, or pay big (either in free agent dollars or in trade return) for younger players with potential to break out. Clubs are less willing to open their wallets for “just” solid production, thus leaving Gurriel in danger of being squeezed in the market unless he has a quality platform season.

Gurriel could point to older brother Yuli as an example of how later-career production runs in the family. However, the younger Gurriel will likely need to stay healthy and (perhaps significantly) out-perform his past Toronto production in order to really capitalize on his upcoming trip to the open market.

Make Or Break Year: Jack Flaherty

By Mark Polishuk | January 8, 2023 at 10:55pm CDT

Jack Flaherty posted a 3.01 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate over 347 1/3 innings during the 2018-19 seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2019. After coming up through the Cardinals’ farm system as a top-100 ranked prospect, it certainly looked like Flaherty was living up to that potential, and establishing himself as a frontline pitcher in St. Louis heading into the next decade.

Since then, however, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly. He was one of several Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, missing four weeks of an already shortened season and finishing with a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, abbreviated seasons became the trend for Flaherty, as he has tossed only 114 1/3 innings over 26 games since the start of the 2021 campaign.

An oblique strain and a shoulder strain limited Flaherty to 78 1/3 frames in 2021, and the shoulder problems carried over into 2022 when Flaherty needed a PRP injection to deal with bursitis during Spring Training. The recovery time and prerequisite ramp-up time delayed Flaherty’s season debut until June, but another shoulder strain just a couple of weeks later resulted in another visit to the 60-day injured list. He was able to return for five starts and a relief appearance in September/October, but Flaherty banked only 36 total innings last season.

Adding to Flaherty’s frustration is the fact that he has been pretty effective when on the mound, particularly prior to his oblique strain in 2021. The righty had a 3.54 ERA/4.26 SIERA over those 114 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, despite the mostly stop-and-start nature of his appearances. One can only imagine how well Flaherty might have been able to pitch had he been healthy, and how an in-form version of Flaherty might’ve helped the Cardinals (winless in three postseason games in those seasons) make more of an impact in the playoffs.

Considering the small sample sizes involved, it’s hard to extrapolate much from Flaherty’s lackluster Statcast metrics in the last two years, though he at least still had above-average strikeout and walk rates in 2021. Put simply, Flaherty’s most important statistic in 2023 will be innings pitched, since good health is his only path back to true front-of-the-rotation status, or even just being a consistent member of a big league rotation.

Now entering his third and final year of salary arbitration, Flaherty’s setbacks had a significant impact on his earning potential. He won an arb hearing over the Cardinals to earn a $3.9MM salary in 2021, and then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $5MM salary last season. With so few innings to build on in 2022, Flaherty is projected to earn only a minimal raise up to $5.1MM for the coming season.

On the plus side, just one healthy and effective season can still line Flaherty up for a hefty contract in free agency next winter. Flaherty doesn’t even turn 28 until October, so there are several prime seasons still theoretically available for any team interested in paying a premium. In this scenario, Flaherty’s agents at CAA Sports might even seek a multi-year with an early opt-out clause, which would allow Flaherty to re-enter the market prior to his age-30 or age-31 season.

But, first things first — Flaherty has to avoid any more lengthy trips to the IL. Rotation-mate Steven Matz is in the same boat after an injury-marred 2022 season, and Matz and Flaherty are projected to pitch at the back end of a St. Louis rotation that also includes Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Jordan Montgomery. Such pitchers as Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Zack Thompson are also on hand for depth, and while the Cardinals are certainly prioritizing winning over auditioning younger pitchers, the team may feel some pressure to see what they have in their controllable arms. Matz is the only member of the projected starting five who is under contract beyond 2023, as Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright (who might retire), and Mikolas are all free agents.

With this many rotation holes to address, it seems probable that the Cardinals will broach an extension with at least one pitcher this spring, yet Flaherty is probably the least likely to work out a long-term deal. Based on his lack of innings or real results in the last two seasons, Flaherty probably doesn’t want to risk undercutting his earning potential in advance of what he naturally hopes will be a rebound season, and the Cards likewise might not want to make a big investment in a pitcher who has been such an injury magnet for two years running.

It sets the stage for an intriguing season for the 27-year-old righty, as Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches. Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.

2022 Should Be A Key Season For Pair Of Pirates’ Former Top Prospects

By Anthony Franco | February 8, 2022 at 8:25pm CDT

Amidst another rebuilding year, the Pirates have ample uncertainty in the starting rotation. Free agent signee José Quintana is going to get one spot, with the Bucs hoping he performs well enough to be flipped midseason for younger talent. JT Brubaker had solid enough strikeout and walk numbers over 24 starts last year to get another opportunity, while Zach Thompson — acquired from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings deal — is likely to be in the mix.

Among those likely under consideration for spots at the back of the rotation are two former top prospects: right-handers Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson. Both pitchers are in their mid-20s, and they were each among Baseball America’s top 100 overall farmhands as recently as three years ago. At the peak of their prospect status, both pitchers were viewed as potential long-term members of a starting rotation. Yet neither has yet established himself as such, and one could argue that 2022 will function as a make-or-break sort of season for both.

Keller has been a familiar name for Pirates fans for some time. A second-round pick out of high school in 2014, he emerged as one of the sport’s most promising pitching prospects after a dominating showing in Low-A in 2016. Entering the 2017 campaign, BA considered him the game’s #22 overall farmhand. He’d remain among the top 60 prospects in each of the following three seasons, pairing a mid-90s fastball with a plus curveball that led many to project him as a future mid-rotation arm.

The Iowa native made his big league debut in 2019. While he allowed a 7.13 ERA over his first 48 MLB innings, Keller was plagued by an astounding .475 batting average on balls in play. His 28.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk percentage and 11.8% swinging strike rate all looked like indicators he could indeed be a mid-rotation or better arm in the making. Keller was limited to just five starts in the shortened 2020 campaign, ironically posting a very good ERA (2.91) but dreadful peripherals. Still, as he entered his age-25 season last year, Keller looked to be a key piece of the Bucs’ long-term plans.

That’s perhaps more of a question now, though. He started 23 games and worked 100 2/3 innings, but he managed just a 6.17 ERA. As with 2019, some horrible ball in play results (.388 opponents’ BABIP) played a role in his struggles keeping runs off the board. But Keller’s fielding-independent numbers weren’t nearly as impressive last year as they’d been during his debut campaign. His 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk percentage were each a few points worse than the respective league averages. Among the 129 hurlers with 100+ frames, Keller placed 121st in swinging strikes (8.2%).

Keller’s fastball velocity has ticked down a bit since his prospect peak, but a 93.9 MPH average fastball is still more than sufficient. Arguably more concerning is that none of his offspeed pitches was particularly effective. Only his slider was in the realm of average in terms of generating whiffs, and each of his slider, curve and changeup were hit hard. Finding a consistently reliable secondary pitch figures to be a focus for Keller and pitching coach Oscar Marin. If he doesn’t show promise in that regard, the front office could be faced with a tough decision. Keller’s on track to reach arbitration eligibility next offseason, and he could be a non-tender candidate if he posts another season like his 2021 campaign.

The urgency might be even greater for Wilson. While he’s not set to reach arbitration until after the 2023 season (unless the union succeeds in its efforts to expand eligibility for players in the 2-3 year service bucket during CBA talks), Wilson is facing roster pressure of a different sort. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Pirates would need to make him available to the rest of the league if they decide to bump him off the active roster.

An overslot fourth-round selection out of high school by the Braves in 2016, Wilson posted absurd numbers in the low minors over his first two years in pro ball. By 2018, the North Carolina native was traversing four levels. He began that season in High-A but pitched his way to the majors by August. Wilson only made three MLB appearances down the stretch, but that he was in the big leagues by age 20 was itself a remarkable accomplishment.

Wilson headed into 2019 as a consensus top 100 prospect, albeit at the back half of most lists. While he wasn’t viewed as a future top-of-the-rotation arm, most expected Wilson could cement himself within the Atlanta rotation in short order. He spent the bulk of 2019 in Triple-A, though, and he was shuttled between MLB and the alternate training site throughout 2020. Wilson started only six big league games between those two years.

Last year, Wilson got his first extended MLB opportunity. He made eight starts apiece with the Braves and Pirates, who acquired him at the trade deadline as part of the Richard Rodríguez swap. Unfortunately, he didn’t find much success at either stop. Between the two clubs, he combined for a 5.35 ERA across 74 innings.

Wilson showed strong control (6.8% walk rate) but struggled with home runs and only fanned 14.3% of opponents on a meager 8.7% swinging strike rate. Wilson, like Keller, suffered from an inability to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary pitch. He used his fastball nearly as much as any starter around the league, likely playing a part in both his lack of whiffs and home run issues.

For both Keller and Wilson, the 2022 campaign looks likely to be a key developmental season. Wilson will need to pitch well enough to stick on the active roster; Keller can be sent back to the minors, but he’s likely to be in his final pre-arbitration year. As they rebuild, the Pirates can afford to give the former top prospects another opportunity. Yet if Keller and/or Wilson are to establish themselves as rotation cogs, as many anticipated they would a few years ago, they’ll have to find more success against big league hitters than they have in recent seasons.

Make Or Break Year: Victor Robles

By Mark Polishuk | January 30, 2022 at 9:07pm CDT

Emerging as an everyday player in 2019, Victor Robles hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for the Nationals — below-average (92 wRC+, 91 OPS+) by a league-wide standard but quite respectable for a player in his age-22 season. Robles also stole 28 bases in 37 chances, and was exceptional over 1199 innings in center field, posting +23 Defensive Runs Saved, +22 Outs Above Average, and +6.1 UZR/150.

Since Robles was a key figure in the Nats’ World Series triumph, his place in Washington baseball history is in some ways already secured. However, with two lackluster seasons since that seeming breakout year, the jury is still out on whether or not Robles is still a cornerstone piece for the Nationals in the future.

In a sense, the Nationals’ larger struggles give Robles some extra leeway. After consecutive last-place finishes and a trade deadline fire sale of many of their veterans, it isn’t yet clear if the Nationals are planning to return to contention in 2022, or if the club will take another year to reload. Washington didn’t do much in the way of big transactions pre-lockout, and much of the team’s winter focus has been on making new staffing hires on the coaching and player development fronts throughout the organization.

Even if 2022 is more of an evaluation year in the District, there’s still natural pressure on Robles to perform. His lack of production in 2020-21 meant that he is projected for a modest $1.7MM in 2022, his first season of arbitration eligibility. If Robles again doesn’t hit next year but continues to play good defense, the Nationals probably wouldn’t be moved to non-tender him since he’d still have a pretty inexpensive price tag, even for a fourth outfielder type. (Caveat: it is possible the arbitration process could be altered in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.)

Becoming “only” a fourth outfielder would have to count as a bit of a disappointment for a player with Robles’ prospect pedigree. It wasn’t long ago that Robles was a consensus pick as one of baseball’s best minor leaguers, as scouts and evaluators thought even more highly of Robles than they did Juan Soto when the two were coming up in Washington’s farm system.

However, the hitting potential that Robles displayed in the minors and in the 2018-19 seasons seemed to vanish over the last two big league seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Robles has hit .209/.304/.302 with five homers over 558 PA, translating to a measly 67 wRC+ and 68 OPS+. The biggest issue has been a lack of hard contact, as Robles has some of the worst hard-hit ball numbers of any player in baseball over the last three seasons. Robles also has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, though his walk rate did improve to a slightly above-average 8.9% in 2021.

Even beyond the struggles at the plate, Robles has 12 steals in 21 chances in 2020-21, and he was a below-average runner in general according to Fangraphs’ baserunning metric. Even the glovework has been in decline, as over his last 1215 innings in center field, Robles has a -4 DRS, and -3.3 UZR/150, though his OAA total is still +3.

Robles’ decision to add 15 pounds in the 2019-20 offseason may have contributed to all of these problems, as his attempt to help boost his power had a deleterious effect on basically every aspect of his game. Robles cut that weight prior to last year’s Spring Training, yet the difficulties continued over the 2021 season. The Nationals even took the step of demoting Robles to Triple-A for the final month of the season, though since Robles did post a .936 OPS over his 93 PA with Rochester, there is hope that his return trip to the minors might have helped him regain some confidence.

Heading into 2022, Robles still ostensibly Washington’s top option in center field, though Lane Thomas now looms as a possible replacement. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade, Thomas broke out to hit .270/.364/.489 over 206 PA with the Nats, and positioned himself for an everyday role in the D.C. outfield. Thomas is likely a better defensive fit as a left fielder than as a center fielder, but he is at least good enough up the middle to take over the position if Robles is unable to get on track.

Andrew Stevenson, Yadiel Hernandez and minor league signing Rusney Castillo are also in the mix to vie for outfield playing time, plus Robles’ immediate future may also be impacted by whatever the Nationals have planned for their post-lockout moves. Even if the Nats aren’t planning to contend, that doesn’t mean they might not add a veteran or two on one-year contracts, with an eye towards potentially flipping those veterans at the trade deadline.

It also worth stressing that Robles doesn’t even turn 25 years old until May, so it’s possible his prime years may still be well ahead of him. If the Nationals’ step back meant they didn’t have to a tough decision on Robles this winter, however, that decision may get a little tougher if Robles still hasn’t shown any improvement during the 2022 season. If Robles can at least approach his 2019 form, that will provide at least one answer for the Nationals within this period of uncertainty for the franchise.

Make Or Break Year: Michael Pineda

By Jeff Todd | March 7, 2017 at 10:52am CDT

MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.

It’s easy to pick pending free agents as “make or break” candidates, so this isn’t a particularly inventive choice. But few players have more boom or bust earning potential than Michael Pineda, the talented 28-year-old Yankees hurler.

Pineda’s recent track record is susceptible of supporting multiple narratives. By one, it’s something of a surprise that the Yanks tendered him a contract and paid him a fairly healthy $7.4MM salary in his final year of arb eligibility. After all, he carries a disappointing 4.60 ERA over his 336 1/3 innings in the past two seasons. That’s far shy of what the club hoped for, no doubt; a pitcher’s essential job, after all, is to keep runs off the board.

There’s another view, of course. For one thing, Pineda finally turned in 32 starts for the first time as a big leaguer in 2016. Given the serious shoulder problems he has dealt with, that’s both notable and quite valuable in and of itself. He also finally restored all of his lost fastball velocity, working at 94 mph for the first time sine his rookie year. Pineda also managed a career-best 14.1% swinging-strike rate and 10.6 K/9 strikeout rate, placing him in elite company (see here and here). His walks were up a smidge (2.7 BB/9) over his prior two years, when he showed top-level control, but that’s hardly a problem. And Pineda continues to generate grounders at a slightly above-average rate.

All of those measures suggest that Pineda is among the game’s most dominant starters. The issues largely lie in the batted ball results and sequencing. For one thing, he allows too many gopher balls. Last year, he coughed up 1.38 per nine while allowing dingers on 17.0% of the fly balls hit against him — well over the league average. And Pineda has surrendered successive .332 and .339 batting averages on balls in play while posting below-average 68.6% and 70.7% strand rates.

There’s probably some poor fortune mixed in there — Pineda’s contact profile (32.7% hard, 17.2% soft) last year landed in range of the league average. But there’s more than just bad luck at play here. Other measures of contact management paint a less optimistic picture. Why? Pineda’s slider is his money pitch. While his change is mostly just a serviceable option, it at least provides another look to lefties. Indeed, the platoon advantage isn’t the issue; while lefties reached base a bit more often against Pineda, due mostly to drawing more walks, hitters from both sides slugged the same (.460 for lefties, .463 for righties).

The bigger problem, it seems, is Pineda’s other pitch: the fastball. He works off of his four-seamer, throwing it 45% of the time. Opposing hitters hammered that offering, resulting in a -20.6 pitch value that more than offset the fantastic results (15.7 pitch value) Pineda generated with his top-notch slider. Nicolas Stellini of Fangraphs took a close look at this issue recently, arguing that the lack of a truly viable third pitch combined with a propensity for grooving the fastball to produce the problems. To be fair, it’s possible to groove a heater with good results — reigning NL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has a top-shelf four-seamer that he “grooves” quite a bit, though his has quite a lot of horizontal movement and is surrounded by a much more developed set of offerings.

I certainly won’t pretend to know whether that’s simply a permanent limitation for Pineda; indeed, plenty of high-octane fastball-slider hurlers simply end up being relegated to bullpen duty. Lots of tweaks can be imagined. Improving his fastball and/or change are obviously possible, theoretically, if perhaps unlikely at this stage. Further developing alternative fastball versions (two-seamer, cutter) might vary the look. Playing with vertical location could have an impact. Whatever the fix, it’ll need to stick for Pineda to show he’s capable of sticking as a starter.

As things stand, there’s a high degree of variance to Pineda’s future. He’ll play the 2018 season at just 29 years of age, so there are prime seasons to sell in free agency. But will he be marketing those as a top-flight young starter? (With a qualifying offer attached?) As a one-year bounceback candidate? Or perhaps as a versatile, late-inning reliever who’s capable of throwing multiple frames. That last possibility surely is an intriguing one. Pineda’s power arsenal and ability to limit walks compare rather favorably with converted starters such as Andrew Miller, who pared back his starter’s arsenal to a four-seamer/slider mix that has obviously played up in the pen.

Of course, even in the current market, the relief ace profile doesn’t pay quite as well as that of a quality #2 or #3 starter. And it remains to be seen whether Pineda will have a chance — or will be forced — to showcase himself in such a role in 2017. All in all, there’s plenty riding on the season to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Make-Or-Break Year: Shelby Miller

By Connor Byrne | March 5, 2017 at 4:15pm CDT

Relative to expectations, few major leaguers are coming off poorer seasons than Diamondbacks right-hander Shelby Miller, whose first year in Arizona couldn’t have gone much worse. Miller had been a quality starter with the Cardinals and Braves over the three prior seasons, but the Diamondbacks’ decision to send a haul to Atlanta for him in December 2015 was universally panned from the get-go.

Clearly regarding Miller as an ace, the D-backs’ front office parted with two well-regarded prospects, shortstop Dansby Swanson (the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft) and righty Aaron Blair, as well as highly valuable center fielder Ender Inciarte to land him. That choice ultimately helped cost Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson their jobs this past offseason, which came on the heels of dreadful performances from Miller and the 69-win team the executives helped build.

In a year that included a stint on the disabled list, a midsummer demotion to Triple-A and nearly another trade, Miller posted career worsts in ERA (6.15), K/9 (6.24), BB/9 (3.74) and swinging-strike percentage (7.0) across 101 innings. On Atlanta’s end, Blair endured an even worse 70 frames in his first taste of big league action, but Swanson impressed in his 145-plate appearance debut and figures to serve as their long-term answer at short. The defensively adept Inciarte, meanwhile, played well enough to land a lucrative contract extension.

While the trade is never going to turn into a positive for the Arizona organization, it’s possible Miller will revert to being a valuable contributor. He’s still only 26, after all, and not far removed from the aforementioned 2013-15 stretch that saw him register a terrific 3.27 ERA over 561 2/3 innings, albeit with so-so strikeout and walk rates (7.48 and 3.25 per nine) and a below-average ground-ball percentage (42.3). He’ll also have help from behind the plate, with new GM Mike Hazen having ditched a poor pitch-framing catcher (Welington Castillo) in favor of a good one (Jeff Mathis) during the offseason. Moreover, Hazen added ex-major league hurlers Dan Haren and Burke Badenhop (a former MLBTR contributor) to the front office, and those two will attempt to aid Miller and the team’s other pitchers in their new roles.

Miller revealed last month that attempting to live up to the trade hindered him last season, and he told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that he’s trying to “almost go back to being a Little Leaguer and have fun.” It’s only spring, granted, but it appears that approach is working. In his most recent outing on Thursday, Miller hit 99 mph on the radar gun and shut down the Cubs over three innings of one-hit ball, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

Diamondbacks pitching coach Mike Butcher then raved about Miller to Piecoro on Sunday, saying (via Twitter): “Mentally, he’s in a great place. He’s where he needs to be. He just looks really, really good right now. And he’s confident. He’s on a mission, man.”

Whether Miller’s encouraging spring carries over into the regular season will obviously affect his earning power for years to come. Thanks to his minor league demotion last season, Miller didn’t accrue a year of big league service time, meaning he could be under Arizona’s control through the 2019 campaign. Miller will earn $4.7MM this year after the Diamondbacks defeated him in arbitration during the offseason, and he’ll be a prime non-tender candidate next winter if he fails to rebound in 2017. On the other hand, flashing something resembling the form he showed prior to 2016 would net Miller a raise in arbitration or even a contract extension. It’s fair to say, then, that Miller’s in for a make-or-break year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Make Or Break Year: Billy Hamilton

By Jeff Todd | March 4, 2017 at 12:38pm CDT

Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton remains one of the game’s most fascinating players, due in large part to his eye-popping ability to create runs through his unmatched daring on the bases. Hamilton’s top-of-the-charts speed — which he ably deploys to circle the bags and track down fly balls with the best of them — gives him a sturdy floor and makes him an easy bet to contribute in the big leagues for a full career.

The question remains, though, whether Hamilton ought to be trotted out on an everyday basis given his weaknesses with the bat in hand. There’s an argument to be made that he’s good enough on the bases and in the field that he really doesn’t need to hit much at all to warrant a steady job. Over the past three seasons, Hamilton has paced baseball by a laughable margin in total baserunning value and ranks third in the game in UZR-based defensive contributions. And this isn’t just some sabermetric argument; teams have long valued outstanding up-the-middle defenders who couldn’t hit a lick. (To take but one largely random example, Phil Rizzuto came in second in the AL MVP voting in 1949 despite a .275/.352/.358 batting line … nearly a perfect match for the .273/.351/.355 slash he carried during a Hall-of-Fame career.)

Still, there’s a point at which it’s hard to stomach the lack of production at the dish. Remarkably, Hamilton managed 2.0 fWAR and 1.0 rWAR in 2015 even while hitting an anemic .226/.274/.289. But that level of offense makes him more of a fourth outfielder than a regular worthy of a major commitment from an organization, so the Reds will no doubt demand more before committing to Hamilton for the long run. Obviously he’s shown more in other seasons, but how much bat is enough? And can Hamilton boost his production to the point where that’s a moot question, perhaps earning an extension in the process? Much of the information needed to answer those questions will be provided by Hamilton’s 2017 season.

Is it too early to label this a “make or break year” for Hamilton? Perhaps, to some extent. After all, he’s only 26 and just reached arbitration eligibility for the first time. (He’ll earn a palatable, but still reasonably significant, $2.625MM salary.) But that leaves only two further years of control, at increasing rates of pay, and the Reds are hoping to push toward contention sooner than later. If there’s uncertainty regarding Hamilton’s future — and the organization’s interest in retaining him beyond his arb years — then surely Cincinnati will look to explore alternatives, while perhaps dangling the unique burner in trade talks. (If late-inning relievers are uniquely appealing at the trade deadline, then how about a baserunning specialist who’d become a rare weapon down the stretch and in the postseason?)

Let’s take a closer look at Hamilton’s hitting profile. Surrounding his putrid 2015 campaign, the switch-hitter compiled two seasons in which his overall output was similar but the way he got there was different. In 2014, his rookie campaign, Hamilton slashed .250/.292/.355; last year, he ran out a .260/.321/.343 batting line. With context factored in, both represented productivity that falls about 20% below league average. But for several reasons, the more recent season was arguably more promising.

First and foremost, Hamilton boosted his walk rate in 2016 to a career-best 7.8%. Relatedly, while his overall contact numbers have held steady, Hamilton continued a trend of laying off of more pitches out of the zone. He also put the ball on the ground quite a bit more than ever before (47.7%), helping him to generate a career-best .329 BABIP even as he recorded a typical (for him) 12.5% infield-hit rate and continued to produce very little had contact.

Those background improvements are reason for some optimism, but it’s Hamilton’s late-season charge that has created the most excitement. As C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently examined, Hamilton produced a .369 on-base percentage over his final 45 games, allowing him to steal a remarkable 36 bases in that span. With some professional maturation and improvements to his approach supporting that improvement, perhaps there’s cause to believe that could carry over.

If Hamilton can reach base even at an approximately average clip, he looks like a solid 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player. If he can get on board at a greater rate, perhaps he’ll be a star. But his career OBP of .297 has left his legs in the dugout too frequently. There’s still some time for Hamilton to chart his true course, but the Reds may base their own plans based largely upon his 2017 campaign. The Cincinnati organization has opened up the pocketbook to extend control rights over core players rather frequently, and the Marlins’ extension of Dee Gordon shows the upside for a player of Hamilton’s ilk, but he’ll need to convince the club that he’s capable of sustained productivity to get there.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Make Or Break Year: Avisail Garcia

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2017 at 2:59pm CDT

As you may have heard, the White Sox are entering a rebuilding phase. For 25-year-old Avisail Garcia, that may be a good thing. Otherwise, he might already have been pushed out of his current spot atop the South Siders’ depth chart in right field.

Before this winter, the Chicago front office’s last significant selling move came at the 2013 trade deadline, when the team landed Garcia and three other prospects in the swap that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to the Tigers. The hope at the time was that Garcia would step right into the MLB lineup and make himself a fixture.

Despite his evident tools, Garcia has thus far fallen well shy of hopes. There has been no shortage of opportunity — he has taken over 1,500 trips to the plate in the majors — but the results just haven’t been there.

In the aggregate, Garcia has slashed a modest .258/.310/.385 while striking out at a 23.8% clip and walking just 6.2% of the time. Though he carries a solid 14.4% HR/FB rate, Garcia has put the ball on the ground quite a bit, carrying a 53.2% goundball rate. Despite the power potential, and a healthy .320 career BABIP, Garcia just hasn’t reached base enough or hit for enough power to rate as even an average corner outfielder.

Adding to the concern is the fact that Garcia has never shown polish in the other aspects of his game. Over his career, he has rated as a well-below-average baserunner and fielder. In the aggregate, Garcia has posted -1.4 fWAR and 0.1 rWAR for his career — anemic tallies considering the amount of time he has received.

If there’s a ray of hope, perhaps it can be found in the improvements Garcia did make in 2016. He drew positive metrics for both his glovework and baserunning for the first time; if that can be maintained, it would significantly boost his floor. Of course, the offensive work — .245/.307/.385 — hardly gave added cause for optimism. But Garcia has long been valued most for the upside in his bat, and he has yet even to reach his 26th birthday.

As noted, that background likely wouldn’t be sufficient for Garcia to enter the season with a regular job were it not for the fact that the White Sox already committed to a rebuild. With little in the way of roster pressure, he ought to receive a fair bit of rope to establish himself.

But there could well come a point where the White Sox decide to cut bait, particularly if they feel other, yet younger players are more deserving of an opportunity. Garcia’s contractual upside is limited, after all, and not just because he’s owed $3MM this year. Much like former top prospect Jurickson Profar, another younger player who isn’t fully established in the bigs, Garcia will enter the 2017 season with just two more years of club control remaining thereafter.

It’s not altogether clear whether Garcia has much of a future with the White Sox, whether or not he can pull himself out of his malaise. Perhaps the best-case scenario for Chicago is one in which Garcia plays well enough to turn himself into a solid trade candidate, freeing the organization to move him either this summer or next winter. For Garcia, though, there’s still plenty of opportunity both to build off of a nice platform arb salary and to develop a case for a free-agent payday after the 2019 campaign, which he’ll play at just 28 years of age.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Make Or Break Year: Travis d’Arnaud

By Jeff Todd | February 27, 2017 at 6:13pm CDT

This time last year, Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud was looking to build off of a 2015 season in which he established himself as an offensive force, but also continued to deal with a troubling run of injuries. Now, he’s not only still facing the critique that he can’t stay healthy, but also needs to restore his trajectory as a high-quality option behind the dish.

Injuries remain the major question mark. Over his professional career, d’Arnaud has suffered a series of concussions that are all the more concerning given his position of choice. And that’s not all. The hard-working backstop’s health read-out sounds like a game of Operation, as he has racked up problems high, low, and in-between. Hand and elbow, foot and knee, and back injuries were all on the list even before the 2016 season.

There’s no denying the trouble that d’Arnaud had last year, both before and after a rotator cuff strain sent him to the DL and further clogged his medical rap sheet. He ended the year with a .247/.307/.323 batting line and just four home runs over 276 plate appearances. While his 6.9% walk rate and 18.1% strikeout rate aren’t out of line with career norms, the anemic .076 isolated slugging mark represents a big step back.

The defensive side of the equation brings yet more questions. While he continued to rate well in the pitch-framing department, d’Arnaud cut down just 17 of the 61 baserunners who attempted to steal against him — though certainly the Mets’ staff deserves a hefty share of the blame there. Despite d’Arnaud’s stalling bat, which he hopes to fix with improved swing mechanics, Mets manager Terry Collins says that “the defensive side” is “where we’ve got to really focus.” As John Harper of the New York Daily News recently reported, the young backstop’s pitch calling may have compromised his standing with the Mets’ talented pitching staff.

Given those struggles, there’s a lot for d’Arnaud to prove to an organization that has designs on contending in 2017. That’s not to say that the club doesn’t have confidence in a rebound, as it did decide to pass on potential upgrades behind the dish this winter. Light-hitting veteran Rene Rivera isn’t really suited for more than reserve duty, while Kevin Plawecki has yet to translate his offensive success in the upper minors to the game’s highest level. As Harper writes, the organization could change tack and seek an alternative — as soon as this year’s trade deadline — if d’Arnaud fails to recover his standing.

All that said, there are reasons to hope that the former first-round draft pick can make good on his obvious talent. After a solid 2014 season, d’Arnaud turned in a big (albeit injury-shortened) 2015 campaign at 26 years of age. In his 268 plate appearances that year, d’Arnaud slashed a robust .268/.340/.485 and swatted a dozen long balls, leading some to expect he’d soon establish himself as one of the game’s premier offensive threats from behind the plate. Defensively, the metrics love d’Arnaud’s pitch presentation, which many organizations have adopted as a critical element in assessing catching value. And he only just turned 28 years of age, so it’s not as if there aren’t prime seasons remaining.

While he’s still young, d’Arnaud’s future direction will be determined on the field this year — so long as he can stay in uniform and avoid yet more trips to the DL. His limited playing time has also tamped down his earnings, so he’s only set to take home $1.875MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility; cost pressures, then, won’t likely play much of a role. But as the Mets plot a course for the three further years over which they control d’Arnaud, which coincide with the team’s contract rights over several other core players, they’ll no doubt be assessing carefully the extent to which d’Arnaud is capable of providing the offensive production and defensive work that the organization needs at the catching position.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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